Our latest Midseason Awards article focuses on the Top 20 Last Round Picks or Free Agent Pickups of the 1st half.

Adding quality free agents is all about timing, opportunity, and potential, and I try to consider all 3 of these elements when making my player pickup suggestions. Hopefully you’ve been able to snag some of these players at the right time and they’ve helped out your fantasy team more often than not.

Up next we’ll examine the Bad and the Ugly…

Top Last Round Picks / Free Agent Pickups

1: Danilo Gallinari

(See the All-Value Teams article)

2: Brandon Jennings

(See the All-Value Teams article)

3: Carl Landry

(See the All-Value Teams article)

4: Jamal Crawford

(See the All-Value Teams article)

5: Brendan Haywood

(See the All-Value Teams article)

6: Kendrick Perkins

12.1 points
8.3 rebounds
1.2 assists
.3 steals
2.1 blocks
0 threes
2.6 to’s
63.8 FG%
60.1 FT%

The Celtics have played 41 games thus far, but Rasheed has missed 3 games, Garnett has missed 11, and Big Baby Davis has missed 28. So the most stable big man for Boston has been Perkins, and he has been ROCK SOLID. Often overlooked on a team full of stars, Perk currently ranks 5th in blocks and 27th in rebounding, despite playing under 30 mpg.

However, Perk has REALLY improved offensively, raising his FG% to a league-leading 64% while bumping his scoring average up from just 8.5 last year and 6.9 the year before, to a deece 12.1 this season. He still ranks below Haywood due to Kendrick’s poor free throw shooting and high turnovers, but KP has been one of the best value centers around.

7: Samuel Dalembert

7.4 points
9.3 rebounds
1.1 assists
.5 steals
2.2 blocks
0 threes
1.6 to’s
52.5 FG%
84.5 FT%

Not only did Dalembert fall hard on draft day, but he may have been dropped completely in your league after averaging just 22.2 minutes, 6.2 rebounds, and 1.4 blocks over his first 9 games. But then Speights got hurt and Sammy D’s minutes started to climb, and over the past month and a half he’s been superb.

In the month of January, Dalembert is averaging a strong 10.5 points, 12.5 boards, 2.5 blocks, and only .9 turnovers on 65% FG and 93% FT shooting! Those are insane numbers that make even Dwight Howard look sorry. The kicker of course is that one of the best months of his career has also come at the most devastating time of his life, as his home city of Port-au-Prince recently got rocked by catastrophic earthquakes. He probably can’t sustain this level of production, but he deserves heaps of props anyway.

8: Jarrett Jack

10.5 points
2.6 rebounds
4.7 assists
.8 steals
.1 blocks
.9 threes
2.1 to’s
47.0 FG%
84.9 FT%

Very few people had Jack on their roster after he averaged a mere 23.4 minutes, 6.4 points, and 2.5 assists over Toronto’s first 10 games. But then his playing time started to rise, and then Jose Calderon got hurt on Dec. 5th. Jack was then inserted into the starting lineup and has been solid ever since, averaging 12.6 points, 5.4 dimes, 1.1 steals, and .9 threes per game on 51% FG and 85% FT shooting as a starter.

The 5th year guard has always stepped up when given the opportunity, whether in Toronto or Indiana or Portland. It’s not easy finding a good dependable point guard off the waiver wire, but Jack has been one of the best pickups of the first half of the season.

9: Chris Douglas-Roberts

13.8 points
4.0 rebounds
1.9 assists
1.2 steals
.4 blocks
.3 threes
1.9 to’s
45.7 FG%
84.5 FT%

Douglas-Roberts got off to a fantastic start, averaging nearly 17 points, 4.7 rebounds, 1.4 steals, and .6 blocks in November & December. Since he doesn’t attempt many threes his FG% is respectable for a swingman, and he gives his owners a nice free throw boost as well. After averaging just 1.4 freebie attempts as a rookie, CDR made 55 of 62 free throws over his first 15 games.

His value took a hard hit when Yi Jianlian returned, and Devin Harris has taken a lot of Chris’ shots away as well. However, if either of those players gets hurt again, then CDR will be worth another look.

10: Yi Jianlian

15.1 points
7.0 rebounds
.6 assists
.7 steals
1.0 blocks
.4 threes
1.8 to’s
42.1 FG%
81.1 FT%

Speak of the devil. Things looked good for Yi when he combined for 29 points, 17 boards, and 4 blocks in Jersey’s first 2 games of the season, but he hurt his knee soon after and missed the next 24 games. While Douglas-Roberts picked up the slack and the Nets kept losing, most fantasy owners forgot about Jianlian.

However, I advised my subscribers to swoop him up in early December, citing how the coaching change (Lawrence Frank out, Kiki Vandeweghe & Del Harris in) might help him blossom (Harris was head coach for Yi & Team China in the 2004 Olympics and Kiki is the GM who traded to get him). Well, he returned right before Christmas, and he’s put up strong numbers ever since, averaging 16.7 points, 6.7 rebounds, .9 blocks, .5 treys, and 5.7 free throw attempts on over 80% FT shooting. At the age of 22 Yi has been solid, but he has the potential for a lot more.

11: Ben Wallace

5.3 points
9.4 rebounds
1.7 assists
1.2 steals
1.1 blocks
0 threes
.9 to’s
51.1 FG%
43.6 FT%

Who knew that Big Ben still had this much left in the tank? He thought about retiring over the summer, but has returned for year #14 and is putting up strong numbers in the paint for Detroit. Wallace combined for just 10.1 points + rebounds + assists per game last season for the Cavs, but this year he’s dropping 16.4 pts + reb + ast.

Wallace’s blocks have actually declined this season, but he’s ramped up his steals to 1.2 per game, which trails only Nene and Camby among centers. His value shines when you consider that he’s the ONLY player in the league pulling down more than 9 boards per game while commiting fewer than 1 turnover. Not bad for a 35-year old who went undrafted in most leagues.

12: Beno Udrih

12.7 points
2.5 rebounds
4.0 assists
.8 steals
.2 blocks
1.1 threes
1.7 to’s
49.5 FG%
85.0 FT%

When Kevin Martin got hurt early on, it made sense to pick Udrih up as he was bound to get more minutes. Still, even the owners who jumped on Beno right away didn’t expect him to play THIS well. Udrih averaged nearly 15 points, 4+ assists, 1 steal, 1.3 treys, and only 1.7 turnovers in November & December, while shooting over 51% from the field and over 83% from the line.

The recent return of Kev-Mart has limited Beno’s production, but if the Kings can get solid value in return, they won’t be shy in trading Martin away. If that happens, Udrih should have decent value once again, so he could be a solid 2nd half pickup as well.

13: Erick Dampier

7.7 points
8.7 rebounds
.4 assists
.2 steals
1.6 blocks
0 threes
1.3 to’s
66.0 FG%
58.5 FT%

Injuries have limited Dampier somewhat this season and he’s no longer reliable, but if you picked him up and started him at the right times, you have to be pleased with the results. If you were desperate for center help, Damp may have caught your eye after his first double-double of the season on Oct. 31st. In the 4 games that followed, he dropped 39 points, 52 boards, and 13 blocks.

Erick missed most of November, but if you throw out his New Years Eve game vs. Houston, Dampier averaged an impressive 9.5 points, 10.6 rebounds, and 1.9 blocks on 50-70 shooting (71.4%) in December. Not bad for a guy who most fantasy owners have ignored the past 4 years.

14: Randy Foye

10.1 points
1.8 rebounds
2.5 assists
.5 steals
.2 blocks
.8 threes
1.2 to’s
43.7 FG%
93.3 FT%

One man’s loss is another man’s gain. In this case, Gilbert Arenas suffered a big-time loss after playing with guns, and Randy Foye received a big-time gain in minutes as a result. After barely playing in November & December, Foye has been getting 36+ minutes since the Arenas suspension.

Over his last 10 games, Foye is averaging a cool 18.8 points, 5.7 assists, 1.3 treys, .9 steals, and 4.2 free throw attempts on 48% FG and 93% FT shooting. Those are Top 50 type numbers, which is superior value when you consider that he could have been swooped up by just about anyone before January 1st.

15: Martell Webster

11.0 points
4.1 rebounds
.7 assists
.6 steals
.6 blocks
1.9 threes
.8 to’s
40.5 FG%
77.1 FT%

Over Portland’s first 14 games, Webster averaged just 19.4 minutes and 6.4 points per. At the time, the mere THOUGHT of owning him seemed laughable. But then Blazer players started dropping like flies: Travis Outlaw, Greg Oden, Rudy Fernandez, Joel Przybilla, Steve Blake, Brandon Roy. Out of neccessity, Webster has had to play lots of minutes, even sliding over to power forward at times. And I give him credit, because he’s stepped up to the plate and bounced back in a big way.

In the month of January, Webster is averaging a whopping 18.1 points and 3.3 treys on 45% FG shooting, in addition to pulling down 5.7 boards and blocking .7 shots per game. He hasn’t been draining threes like Gallinari or Frye per se, but 74 made treys since Nov. 21st (2.4 per game) is pretty impressive, and the solid rejections and low turnovers are merely icing on the cake.

16: Luke Ridnour

11.8 points
1.9 rebounds
4.0 assists
.8 steals
.1 blocks
1.0 threes
1.4 to’s
49.9 FG%
91.3 FT%

Things did NOT look good for Ridnour out of the gates, because he averaged a mere 7.3 points and 2 assists in 15.3 minutes over Milwaukee’s first 6 games. But the he started to heat up, and Cool Hand Luke hasn’t cooled down much at all. In 36 games since then, Ridnour has scored 13+ points 19 times, which is pretty impressive when you consider that he hasn’t started a single game.

In the month of January, Ridnour is dropping 13.3 points, 4.7 dimes to just 1.6 turnovers, and 1.2 treys per game. His 50% FG accuracy has been remarkable because this is a guy who’s shot UNDER 42% FG in 5 of his 6 years in the NBA! There were definite question marks before the season started surrounding both Jennings & Ridnour, but BOTH PG’s have proven to have strong value in deep leagues.

17: Corey Brewer

12.9 points
4.0 rebounds
2.1 assists
1.5 steals
.6 blocks
.6 threes
2.2 to’s
42.7 FG%
65.7 FT%

Brewer turned heads early by scoring in double figures in 9 of his first 11 games, and racking up 25 steals in the process. When Love was out, Corey was also a decent source of rebounds, and he gets his hands on plenty of blocks. However, after shooting just 38% from the field and 64% from the line in October & November, many owners dropped Brewer because his awful shooting was too much to stomach.

Well guess what? Since Dec. 11th, Corey has actually made 133 of 285 shots from the field, for a respectable 46.7% FG. More surprisingly, he’s also found his groove from outside, making 18 of 40 threes in January. He’s not the most consistent player around, but the lanky swingman has certainly helped out fantasy owners who got him for next to nothing.

18: Omri Casspi

12.5 points
4.9 rebounds
1.4 assists
.7 steals
.3 blocks
1.3 threes
1.4 to’s
48.0 FG%
63.6 FT%

Udrih wasn’t the only one who benefitted from Kev-Mart’s absence. The rookie Casspi has proven to be more than worthy of banging elbows with the best of the best. In 16 starts, Omri averaged 14.6 points, 5.9 rebounds, 1.6 threes, .7 steals, .4 blocks, and 3.4 free throw attempts on 78% FT shooting. For the season, he ranks 16th in 3P%, but is also in the Top 50 in 2P%, showing that he can score efficiently from all over the floor.

Casspi is also a long and active defender, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he gets his hands on more steals and blocks down the road. At the age of 21 he has a very bright future, and if the Kings are smart they’ll find a way to give him more minutes. He has fans wherever he goes, and if you’ve owned him you’re probably a fan as well.

19: Ersan Ilyasova

10.7 points
6.8 rebounds
1.2 assists
.8 steals
.3 blocks
1.3 threes
1.1 to’s
41.5 FG%
72.7 FT%

Ilyasova has really struggled in January (just 7.9 points on 35% FG shooting), but he proved to be quite valuable in November & December. In those months he averaged around 12 points, 7.2 rebounds, 1.5 treys, .9 steals, and just 1.4 turnovers per game on a more respectable 44% FG shooting. He’s also proven to be a serious double-double threat when given enough PT.

Of course, I named Ilyasova as one of my Young Breakout Stars before the season started, citing my lack of confidence in Hakim Warrick and Ersan’s improved play overseas as reasons why you should use a last round pick on him. Even if you didn’t draft him, hopefully those words motivated you to swoop him up before any of your opponents did, because Ilyasova had a nice run already and another one may be coming in the 2nd half.

20: Anderson Varejao

8.3 points
8.0 rebounds
1.0 assists
1.0 steals
1.0 blocks
0 threes
.9 to’s
51.8 FG%
65.5 FT%

In my opinion, Varejao is the epitome of the guy you hate facing but love to have on your team: he has endless energy, he loves to mix it up and get physical, he puts winning first and foremost, and he gets under his opponents’ skin. He’s been that way ever since he came into the league, but he didn’t become a RELIABLE fantasy option until this season.

If you want 8 points, 8 boards, 1 steal, 1 block, and 1 turnover every game, then Varejao is about as close as you get to a lock. As predicted by yours truly, he’s leading the Cavs in rebounding, and playing more minutes than both Shaq and Big Z. If you drafted him in the last round, you’ve gotten a rock solid backup big to plug-in whenever you need someone dependable. If Shaq starts missing games to rest up for the playoffs, then Varejao’s stats could even improve in the 2nd half.

Related posts:

1. 2010 Midseason Awards: All-Fantasy Teams LeBron is the 1st half MVP, but has Kobe played well enough...
2. 2010 Midseason Awards: All-Value Teams Zach Randolph has been fantastic this season, and is one of several...
3. Breaking Down the 2009 Free Agent Class: Centers The Birdman and Gortat are two of the top available free agent...

Listed below are the Top 20 value picks for the 1st half of this season, followed by the fantasy coach of the year thus far. If you drafted several of these players, then chances are your team is doing very well.

Note: This article is co-written by Eric Wong and Tom Lorenzo, so you will either see EW or TL after each player. Tom and I will discuss most of these players on his RotoRadio podcast.

Stay tuned, because more midseason awards will be handed out shortly…

All-Value 1st team

PG: Stephen Curry

13.0 points
3.9 rebounds
4.5 assists
1.8 steals
.3 blocks
1.5 threes
2.6 to’s
45.5 FG%
84.7 FT%

I had mixed feelings about Curry before the season started. On one hand, I’ve been a fan for awhile and I believe that you only need to watch him play briefly to see that he’s quite skilled & talented. However, his lack of strength scared me and I figured that Don Nelson might hold him back as a rookie PG. Well, he’s definitely been posted up, scored on often, and taken hard hits when he’s gone into the paint, but Nellie hasn’t had the chance to limit the rook’s PT. Injuries to Raja Bell & Kelenna Azubuike at the beginning of the season, and CJ Watson & Anthony Morrow more recently have opened up the door for Curry to start nearly every game.

As a starter, Steph is averaging nearly 35 minutes, 13.5 points, 4.1 boards, 4.7 dimes, 1.9 steals, 1.6 treys, and .3 blocks per contest. The high steals are superb, and the boards and blocks are surprisingly solid. His excellent accuracy from outside (7th overall at 43.6% 3P) has helped keep his FG% solid, and it shows that he has 2+ trey potential down the road. He hasn’t gotten to the line very often (just 1.8 FT attempts per game), but once he gets more experience & respect, Curry will become a major free throw booster as well. If he continues to workout with Chris Paul every summer, the sky’s the limit. -EW

SG: Tyreke Evans

20.9 points
4.9 rebounds
5.0 assists
1.5 steals
.5 blocks
.5 threes
2.9 to’s
46.1 FG%
78.9 FT%

Evans joins Curry to form an All-Rookie All-Value backcourt. There were many question marks surrounding Evans in the preseason, which is why he fell far on draft day. However, an early season injury to Kevin Martin paved the way for him to become a star, and he’s seized the opportunity and then some. At over 20 ppg, Tyreke easily leads all rookies in scoring and is 14th overall. His 6.1 free throw attempts per game also ranks him in the Top 20, ahead of veterans like Pierce, Deron, and Iguodala.

To understand Tyreke’s ability to stuff the stat sheet, consider that LeBron & D. Wade were the only players to average 5+ rebounds, 5+ assists, 1.5+ steals, and .5+ blocks last season. In fact, Reke’s rookie numbers are very similar to Dwyane’s, and that’s obviously good company to have. His 2nd half stats may fade a bit due to the presence of Kev-Mart + rookie wear and tear, but Evans has already provided his owners with more value than they expected. -EW

SF: Danilo Gallinari

14.8 points
4.9 rebounds
1.6 assists
.9 steals
.9 blocks
2.7 threes
1.4 to’s
42.9 FG%
81.5 FT%

I have to admit, Gallinari was one of my favorite sleeper picks coming into the season. It actually got to the point where I would write about him so often that the Knicks considered getting a restraining order put on me. It’s not my fault. Sometimes you watch a kid play, assess his current situation, and think that he’s primed for a big season. That was exactly the case for Gallo, and that’s why I made him my No. 1 target in the late rounds of my drafts. Consider where he was coming into the season. Mike D’Antoni and Donnie Walsh needed some sort of savior, someone who would prove that the future in New York is not so bleak. Who else could they turn to other than the player they both deemed a cornerstone player when they drafted him No. 7 overall in 2008?

Gallo, as a rookie, was limited due to a lingering back injury. Yet in the 28 games he did play in as a rook he showed great range and a terrific touch from the line. His per-36 numbers last season were a perfect indicator as to what we might expect from him this season: 14.9 points, 4.8 rebounds, 2.8 threes, 0.6 blocks and 1.2 steals. In fact, those numbers are nearly spot-on when you look at what he’s done this year in only 31 minutes on the court: 14.8 points, 4.9 rebounds, 3.1 threes, 0.9 steals and 0.9 blocks. His 3-point shooting is tops in the league, while his defensive numbers (especially the blocks) come as a great surprise. If you wanted to knock him on something it would have to be a decrease across the board in his shooting percentages, though he is taking 6.6 more field-goal attempts and 4.1 more threes per game. So you knew he’d regress a bit in what really is his first full season in the league. I didn’t expect him to be a Top 25 player this season, but I can say that I saw him becoming an impact player once management knew that they needed to somehow convince LeBron James that signing with New York wouldn’t be all that bad. Gallinari was really their only hope. -TL

PF: Zach Randolph

20.8 points
11.5 rebounds
2.0 assists
.9 steals
.4 blocks
.1 threes
2.2 to’s
50.7 FG%
80.9 FT%

The best case for putting Randolph on the All-Value first team can be summed up by this quote from Memphis head coach Lionel Hollins when he said, “[Randolph] deserves to be an All-Star. It’s very gratifying to see someone with his talent mature and become a leader. It’s one of the things that this game is supposed to be about.” What? Zach Randolph, a leader? Wasn’t he supposed to be a black-hole in the paint for this young Grizzlies team? At least that’s what the consensus was prior to drafts. That, coupled with his “true” fantasy value dropped Z-Bo into the eighth or ninth rounds. Now he’s playing like a second rounder.

The simplest number to point to is the amount of double-doubles he’s racked up in the first half of the season. In his first 41 games Randolph has racked up 27 double-doubles, as opposed to the 29 he managed in 51 games last season. He’s currently averaging 11.5 boards per game, which is good for a career-high. His shooting has been better than expected this season as well. He’s at 50.7% FG on the season, and he hasn’t been that high since the 2002-03 season in which he finished the year with a 51.3% mark. I think we’ve been so used to seeing him devour possessions and shoot out of range jumpers that we never would have expected him to be this efficient. The case for Randolph continues when you dig even deeper. He’s on pace right now to set career marks in assists, steals, and possibly even FT%. It’s been an extraordinary season for Z-Bo. And I say that as someone who said “do not touch” him in the preseason. -TL

C: Marc Gasol

14.8 points
9.5 rebounds
2.3 assists
.9 steals
1.6 blocks
0 threes
2.0 to’s
60.6 FG%
67.7 FT%

Consider Gasol one of the main casualties of the Zach Randolph draft debacle. Many fantasy experts and owners alike were afraid to touch Gasol knowing that the Grizz just traded for Randolph and also, we should add, drafted another 7-footer with the #2 overall pick in the 2009 NBA Draft. It seemed like not only did fantasy ballers not have faith in Gasol heading into the season, but neither did Grizz management. You think they’d want a re-do right now?

But Gasol has responded in All-Star like fashion. He is up across the board in all cats, except for FT%. His rebounding this season has gone up +2.1 per game even with Randolph in the paint pulling down double-digit boards. I also like the fact that he’s at 1.6 blocks and just under 1.0 steals per game. That’s fantastic defensive value for a center. The kicker in all of this, however, is his FG%. Last season Gasol attempted 8.1 shots per game and made 53% of those. This season his shots are up (9.2) and his FG% is way up to 60.6%, good for 2nd in the league. He’s still not on the level of his brother, but with the way Marc is playing this season, he is no longer known as just “Pau Gasol’s brother.” -TL

All-Value 2nd team

PG: Aaron Brooks

18.6 points
2.4 rebounds
5.1 assists
.8 steals
.2 blocks
2.3 threes
2.9 to’s
42.7 FG%
82.5 FT%

On one hand, many people expected Brooks to lead Houston in scoring with Yao Ming & T-Mac injured, especially after Aaron’s performance in last year’s playoff series vs. the Lakers. However, there were definite concerns about his durability, his poor field goal shooting, low steal numbers, and a possible timeshare with Kyle Lowry. As a result, Brooks fell past round 10 in nearly every single league.

Well, the sparkplug has been even better than expected. He ranks an impressive 4th in threes per game, and his 39.2% 3P shooting has been solid enough to keep his FG% hovering around 42% rather than 40% or below. He’s shooting over 82% from the line for the 3rd year in a row, which is money because he’s nearly doubled his free throw attempts per game since last season. The 1.76 assist-to-turnover ratio isn’t ideal, but Brooks has still provided excellent value for his owners thus far. -EW

SG: Jamal Crawford

17.1 points
2.5 rebounds
2.8 assists
.8 steals
.1 blocks
1.7 threes
1.7 to’s
45.4 FG%
84.6 FT%

Crawford has always been known as a pure scorer/shooter. The issue with Crawford in the past has been that he can score and hit threes, but what else can he do? The second strike against Crawford this season was that he had been moved to Atlanta where he would come off the bench behind Mike Bibby and Joe Johnson. Well, as we know, Crawford has done quite well coming off the bench.

The value of Crawford has taken a nice spike because he has started to take smarter shots this season. He’s down to just 13.3 FGAs per game, his lowest total since 2005-06, but his FG% is up at 45.4%, nearly a 5% point improvement from last season and +4.7% over his career number. Just because he’s taking 2.5 fewer shots this season it’s only translated to a -2.6 point differential. Another number that’s down, but in a good way, is his turnovers. He’s at 1.7 turnovers per game, his lowest total since the 2002-03 season when he was with the Bulls and played just 24 minutes per game. Crawford is proving that you can find great value off the bench, and he’s very worthy of 6th man of the year honors. -TL

SF: Corey Maggette

20.3 points
6.1 rebounds
2.4 assists
.7 steals
.1 blocks
.2 threes
2.5 to’s
54.3 FG%
84.4 FT%

It took him awhile, but Corey Maggette finally realized that he’s not a very good 3-point shooter. Before this season, he had attempted 1.9+ threes in 7 of the past 8 years, despite having shot over 35% 3P just ONCE in his entire career. This season he’s cut back on his attempts from downtown, and the result is a whopping 54% FG mark. For a guy who’s hovered in the 44-46% FG range ever since his rookie year, the sudden jump is both impressive and unexpected.

Of course, Corey has always been a valuable free throw shooter, and this year is no exception, as he ranks 8th in freebie attempts and 23rd in freebie accuracy. Maggette is also pulling down a career-best 6.1 boards per game, but the icing on the cake is that he’s missed only one game thus far. For a guy who hasn’t played more than 75 games since his rookie year, that’s quite the accomplishment. -EW

PF: Carl Landry

16.2 points
5.6 rebounds
.7 assists
.6 steals
.9 blocks
0 threes
1.7 to’s
55.6 FG%
84.5 FT%

As expected by yours truly (I chose him as a Career Year Candidate and drafted him in half my leagues), Carl Landry has stepped up his game this season. Despite coming off the bench for every game (27.1 mpg), Landry is one of the league’s leading 4th quarter scorers, ranking right up there with LeBron, Melo, and Wade. His rebounds have not increased by much (+.6), but Carl is blocking more than twice as many shots as he did last season, while his turnovers remain very low for 9-cat owners.

Of course, the shooting percentages is where Landry really shines, as he ranks 9th in FG% and 21st in FT%. If you only consider those 2 cats, then he ranks right up there with Nash and Maggette as being the most valuable. It helps that his field goal attempts have soared from 6.1 to 10.8, and his free throw attempts have risen from 2.8 to 5.0, and it’s intriguing to consider what he could do if he got 33+ minutes every game. -EW

C: Joakim Noah

11.1 points
12.4 rebounds
2.3 assists
.6 steals
1.7 blocks
0 threes
2.1 to’s
48.6 FG%
76.4 FT%

Another Bull on the all-value team and it’s a rather surprising one for many. I liked him coming into this season, but I never would have though that he would be hovering around the Top 30! Not after his 6.7 points and 7.6 rebounds he put up last season. Although, if you would have told me that Noah would see an increase in 7 minutes to Brad Miller’s decrease in 7 minutes on the court and we should have been able to predict this. Last season, Noah’s per 36 numbers were rather impressive — 10.0 points, 11.3 rebounds, 2.0 blocks, 0.9 steals and 55.6% FG.

With Noah’s increase in minutes have come a huge increase in actual production. He’s at 11.1 points per game (+4.4) and 12.4 rebounds (+4.8). Not only is Noah 8th in the league with 21 double-doubles, but he’s also 13th in the league in blocks with 1.7 per game. If there were one stat you could get on Noah about it would be his FG%. Taking +4 shot attempts this season has translated into a 6.1% decrease in his FG% to 48.6%. That’s still a number you can live with, though. It’s been an up and down season for the Bulls to say the least, but for Noah it’s been up…and up. -TL

All-Value 3rd team

PG: Baron Davis

16.4 points
3.4 rebounds
8.1 assists
1.7 steals
.6 blocks
1.2 threes
2.8 to’s
40.8 FG%
83.3 FT%

Baron is no longer a 20 point, 2 three per game guy, but perhaps that’s a good thing since he’s shooting just 28.7% from behind the arc this year. He used to jack up outside shots left and right (8.7 attempts in ‘03-04!), but has been much more selective this season (4.1 attempts). As a result, his FG% is no longer quite as damaging.

Best of all, Baron has boosted his free throw shooting to a career-high 83.3%! He’s never shot over 76% in a season, so anything over 80% is quite the achievement for BD. Who are the only players in the league averaging 7.6+ assists, 1.6+ steals, and .6+ blocks? Baron Davis and LeBron James. Enough said. -EW

SG: OJ Mayo

18.4 points
3.8 rebounds
3.2 assists
1.3 steals
.3 blocks
1.7 threes
2.0 to’s
46.5 FG%
82.2 FT%

Mayo was less affected by the Randolph trade as he was with the Allen Iverson signing. Again, once the Grizz made the move to add Iverson it was in with the old, out with the new. How could you add a guy who led the NBA in Usage Percentage six times and who has a career usage rate of 31.9% to a young team like this and expect his backcourt mates not to get discouraged? Well I was certainly concerned, and I know I wasn’t the only one. That’s why after a stellar rookie campaign, Mayo didn’t make much ground in his ADP. In hindsight, what a mistake that was!

Mayo is for the most part having a similar season this year to the rookie campaign we all glorified him for. He’s scoring 0.1 points fewer this season, making 0.1 fewer 3-pointers, and is on pace to match his rebounds (3.8) and assists (3.2) from last season. His steals are up slightly from 1.1 to 1.3 per game, as well as his blocks from 0.2 to 0.3. The keys to his uptick in value have been his increased FG% (from 43.8% to 46.5%) and his decrease in turnovers (from 2.8 to 2.0). Maybe the most important stat of them all is that he’s playing 38 minutes per game again. Iverson came and went, and left no trail behind. -TL

SF: Luol Deng

17.7 points
7.4 rebounds
2.1 assists
1.0 steals
1.1 blocks
.4 threes
1.9 to’s
46.2 FG%
77.3 FT%

I think the reason why Deng didn’t get much ‘pub’ this offseason was because the Bulls were coming off an exciting playoff series where their superstar point guard, Derrick Rose, had everyone talking about his future prospects. They also had just lost their top scoring option in Ben Gordon to Detroit, and everyone was buzzing about John Salmons now that he was going to get more touches and shots. Deng just kind of slipped under the radar. There were also the legit injury concerns that surrounded Deng since he missed a combined 52 games over the past two seasons.

Too bad for you if you missed out on the 6th-year small forward. Deng has upped both his scoring and rebounding this season, with his 7.4 boards being a career-high. His 17.7 points per game is his highest total since the 2006-07 season, but the real reason why you like Deng this season is because he has joined the 1-and-1 club this season, averaging 1.0 steals and 1.1 blocks per game. The steals you could see coming, but the blocks are a nice surprise since he’s averaged just .5 per game over his first five seasons. Up too are his 3-pointers, as Luol through his first 40 games has already made more threes (15) than he has in each of the last three seasons. In fact, since his sophomore season Deng has only made 17 total threes. Not bad if you ask me. -TL

PF: Channing Frye

11.8 points
5.8 rebounds
1.5 assists
.8 steals
1.0 blocks
2.3 threes
1.0 to’s
44.4 FG%
76.1 FT%

Technically, Frye starts at center for the Suns. I’m listing him as a power forward, but I don’t even feel right for using Channing and “power” in the same sentence (more on that later). First let’s give the dude some props. The Suns spoke a bit about utilizing Frye’s outside shooting ability over the summer, but I don’t think anyone in their right mind expected him to be 2nd in threes made on over 42% 3P shooting. He’s also posted a decent 1 block and .8 steals per game, and has committed very few turnovers.

However, Frye’s rebound numbers are terrible for a big man, and he has very little street cred as far as being an intimidating defender or serious low-post scoring threat. As a result, he recently lost his starting job to Robin Lopez and his value has fallen off the map. Frye’s 2nd half numbers might not be nearly as good, but he deserves some 1st half props for dropping treys left and right. -EW

C: Brendan Haywood

9.8 points
10.8 rebounds
.4 assists
.4 steals
2.2 blocks
0 threes
2.5 to’s
53.8 FG%
63.3 FT%

I don’t know many fantasy owners who were jazzed up about Haywood this summer. Not after he managed to play just 6 games last season. Prior to his shortened 2008-09 season Haywood posted 10.6 points, 7.2 rebounds, 1.7 blocks and 52.8% FG. Nice numbers, but would he be able to top those and stay healthy after sitting out nearly an entire season? Apparently so.

Haywood is on pace to average a double-double for the first time in his nine-year career. At 9.8 points and 10.3 rebounds, Haywood has given owners true value in the scoring cat, but he has exceeded his career average of 6.3 rebounds by 4 per game. Not once in his career has Haywood pulled in more than 7.3 bpg, so the rebounds are a pleasant surprise that many could not have seen coming. His blocks have also gone up this season to 2.2 per game from 1.7 two seasons ago (I’m not going to count the 2.5 blocks from last season because it was such a small sample size). In all, Haywood is having the kind of season that wins you fantasy rings. He’s the guy you drafted in the 11th or 12 round who you plug in each night and sleep well knowing you’ll get 10/10/2 in his big man stats. -TL

All-Value Honorable Mentions

G: Brandon Jennings

18.0 points
3.7 rebounds
6.2 assists
1.1 steals
.3 blocks
2.0 threes
2.8 to’s
38.2 FG%
82.1 FT%

In our defense, if Donnie Walsh admitted he hadn’t seen enough of Jennings to take him over Jordan Hill, how are we supposed to have known he would come in and have this much of an impact — I’m looking at you, 55-point performance. The early report on Jennings had many pointing to a possible disastrous FG% and a high turnover rate. Right now those critics are only half right. Jennings is sporting a lowly 38.2 FG%, yet his turnovers are only at 2.8. That’s not bad for a rookie point guard who has a 27.45 usage %.

On the bright side, Jennings is the second leading scorer among rookies at 18 points per game and leads all rookies with 6.2 assists per game. From an efficiency standpoint his aforementioned FG% is tough to live with, but Jennings is making nearly 40% of his 3-pointers at 2 per game and is taking 3.8 free-throw attempts and making 82.1% of them. Those are numbers you can certainly live with. There’s a select few who are averaging 6.0 assists, 2.0 threes and 1.0 steals per game, joining only Gilbert Arenas. I would say that’s some serious value right there. -TL

G: Raymond Felton

12.7 points
3.5 rebounds
5.4 assists
1.7 steals
.2 blocks
.9 threes
2.3 to’s
46.8 FG%
76.9 FT%

It must be tough to be Felton. Not only will he forever be linked to Chris Paul and Deron Williams, who he was selected after in the 2005 NBA Draft, but in 2008 the Bobcats seemed like the Felton experience was no sure thing when they drafted D.J. Augustin 9th overall. So who’s the point guard of the future in Charlotte? After watching Felton post nearly the exact same numbers for three straight seasons and seeing Augustin post fantastic rookie numbers (11.8 points, 3.5 assists, 1.5 threes and 89.3% FT in 26 minutes), there were some reservations about Felton heading into this season.

But there’s one storyline that might have been looked over — Felton was heading into a contract year. Gimme the loot! Maybe it is the money, or maybe it’s the improved play across the board in Charlotte. Whatever the case, Felton is having a fantastic season. The first place to point to is his much improved FG%. As a career 40.6% shooter, Felton is sitting at 46.8% so far this season. He’s also hitting a career-high 42.2% of his threes. The improvement from the floor has made it easier for his owners to look past the slight decrease in points and assists. A career-high in steals (1.7) and career-low in turnovers (2.3) isn’t too shabby either. -TL

F: Carlos Boozer

19.3 points
10.7 rebounds
3.5 assists
1.1 steals
.6 blocks
0 threes
2.9 to’s
53.2 FG%
76.7 FT%

I gotta give it up to Boozer. Over the summer I thought he was on the verge of getting on Jerry Sloan’s bad side, so I avoided him come draft day. I was certain that Millsap would be ultra-efficient on offense and superior on defense and thus really put a dent into Boozer’s numbers. I was wrong. Sloan is a hard-nosed coach, but he isn’t going to hold grudges if it means losing games, so he essentially gave Boozer the ball and told him to play his ass off.

And the Juneau, Alaska native has done just that. Booze ranks 9th in total rebounds, 5th in defensive rebounds, 4th in assists among power forwards, 18th in FG%, and 22nd in scoring. He’s still not a great shot-blocker, but he’s already TRIPLED his total of swats from last season (23 vs. 7). He’s playing with ferocity and unselfishness, and Millsap has been left with the scraps. Icing on the cake: Booze is shooting over 76% from the line for the first time since ‘03-04! -EW

F: Kevin Love

15.2 points
12.3 rebounds
2.7 assists
.9 steals
.4 blocks
.6 threes
1.7 to’s
45.9 FG%
81.0 FT%

Love fell HARD on draft day after he broke a bone in his left hand in October. The initial diagnosis was that Kev-Luv would be out 6-to-8 weeks, so the doubters stayed away. Not only were some people scared about the injury, but about Big Al Jefferson stealing some of his stats as well. But some of us believed in his toughness and abilities, and if you also drafted Love, that gamble has paid off in a major way.

Despite playing just 31 minutes per game, Love ranks 3rd in total boards and 1st in offensive boards. If you project his stats over a more modest 36 mpg, Love would be pulling down 14.2 rebounds (5.4 offensive) per game! The excellent passer is also dropping deece dimes and committing few turnovers, but what puts him over the top is his ability to knock down both his freebies (81%) and threes (39%). The guy is simply ROCK SOLID, and at the age of 21, he’s already become the best White American in the NBA (I’ll take him over Lee and Kaman anyday). -EW

C: Chris Kaman

20.4 points
9.3 rebounds
1.9 assists
.7 steals
1.4 blocks
0 threes
3.0 to’s
50.6 FG%
74.3 FT%

Part of me feels that Chris Kaman deserves more than just honorable mention here. After all, he ranks in the Top 20 in scoring and the Top 26 in both rebounds and field-goal shooting. The scoring numbers are no joke, as he’s averaging more points than guys like Tim Duncan, Deron Williams, Derrick Rose, Brook Lopez, and Paul Pierce.

However, Kaman’s 1.4 blocked shots per game are not very beastly, especially when compared to the 2.8 bpg that he swatted just 2 seasons ago. Since Chris gets fed the ball so often, he also commits more turnovers than the average center. He was recently hindered by a back injury, so there’s no guarantee that he’ll be as valuable in the 2nd half. -EW

Most Valuable Coach: Lionel Hollins

I wrote about Hollins in the coaching changes preseason piece. The gist of what I wrote about was that Hollins was a “player’s coach.” He was a guy who won over the young players early on and insisted that no one player, Iverson and Randolph included, would walk all over him. And he proved just that with the AI situation. Iverson insisted that he get more minutes, Hollins shot back by essentially saying “try me.” Hollins stood tall as Iverson walked. Game, set, match. That may have very well been one of the turning points of the season for the Grizzlies.

You can see exactly what makes Hollins the fantasy hoops 1st half coach of the year when you read through the All-Value teams and see that 3 of his 5 starters are represented on the first 3 teams, and consider that Rudy Gay just barely missed out on honorable mention status. I mentioned earlier that Hollins is the only coach in the league who rosters three 18 ppg scorers. That’s some great ball distribution. He’s also the only coach in the league with two big men who boast at least 9.5 rebounds per game. Not even Mike Dunleavy Sr. can offer that kind of production from his bigs.

Hollins has vaulted the Memphis Grizzlies from the 28th highest scoring team in 2008-09 (93.9 ppg) to the 4th highest scoring squad this season at 104.2 points per game. The Grizz are also 6th in the league in FG%, 4th in rebounding, 8th in steals, and, for good measure, his team is 5th in the league in fewest fouls — fewer fouls means more minutes. Simple as that. The Grizzlies were on line to be a train-wreck this season. Under Hollins’ tutelage, Memphis has become one of the most productive teams in the league. And for that, Hollins gets the nod. -TL

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We’ve reached the midway point of the NBA regular season, which means it’s time to reflect on the good, the bad, and the ugly of the 1st half.

Let’s start with the best of the best: the All-Fantasy teams are comprised of the 20 top players thus far.

Stay tuned, because more midseason awards will be handed out shortly…

Fantasy MVP = LeBron James

29.6 points
7.1 rebounds
7.8 assists
1.6 steals
1.0 blocks
1.7 threes
3.6 to’s
51.0 FG%
78.2 FT%

It took him long enough, but LeBron has finally become a reliable 3-point shooter. His 1.8 made threes per game and 37.2% shooting from beyond the arc are both career-highs, and he’s 1 of only 22 players averaging over 1.7 treys while shooting over 37% 3P this season. He’s also made over 55% of his 2-point shots, which has resulted in a career-best FG% (first time over 50%). Thankfully, his free throw shooting has not declined either, as that used to be his achilles heel.

Not surprisingly, James is the only player in the league averaging 7+ rebounds and 7+ assists, and he’s doing so for the 3rd straight season! The only negatives are the career-high turnovers and the career-low steals, but those could easily improve in the 2nd half. Last season LeBron had to share the Midseason MVP award with Chris Paul, but with CP3 missing 8 games and not being quite as dominant, there’s no question who the #1 fantasy player has been thus far. The Cavs are also fighting the Lakers for the best record in the league, so whether Roto or Head-to-Head, 8-cat or 9-cat, fantasy or reality, LBJ has been the NBA’s 1st half MVP.

All-Fantasy 1st team

PG: Chris Paul

19.5 points
4.5 rebounds
11.2 assists
2.3 steals
.3 blocks
1.2 threes
2.3 to’s
49.4 FG%
84.1 FT%

Despite missing a handful of games with an ankle injury, CP3 is still worthy of being named the #1 point guard. He’s averaging 11+ assists for the 3rd straight season, but he’s cut his turnovers down from 3.0 per game last year to just 2.3 this season. The result is an amazing 4.92 assist-to-turnover ratio that blows everyone else out of the water. When you consider that LeBron, Durant, Melo, Kobe, Wade, and Nash all average around 3 turnovers or more, you see why Paul is extra valuable in 9-cat leagues.

The 6-foot superstar has also improved his fantasy value by shooting a career-best 42% from beyond the arc. He clearly improved his outside shot over the summer, but he still rarely settles for the 3-ball (just 2.8 attempts per game). Unfortunately, CP3’s combined field goal + free throw attempts per game have fallen drastically, from 22.8 last year to just 19.3 this season. Not surprisingly, his scoring average has dropped at an almost identical rate, from 22.8 to 19.5. He’s also grabbing 1 fewer rebound and .5 fewer steals per game this season, so he’s taking a backseat to LeBron this time.

SG: Kevin Durant

29.1 points
7.0 rebounds
3.0 assists
1.3 steals
.9 blocks
1.4 threes
3.9 to’s
48.4 FG%
87.1 FT%

Way back in August I decided to sponsor Kevin Durant’s stat page. At the time, Dwyane Wade was still the consensus #3 pick after LeBron & CP3, but there was no doubt in my mind who I planned on taking. Sure enough, I got the #3 pick in two different leagues, and I drafted Durant in both of them. And while he’s played almost strictly small forward this season, he’s SG-eligible in most leagues and has played too damn well to leave off the All-Fantasy 1st team.

Durant currently ranks 3rd in points, 26th in steals, and 35th in rebounds, but his superior fantasy value is due to the fact that he ranks 3rd in free throw attempts (9.5 per game) and 9th in FT% (over 86% for the 3rd year in a row). His 48.4% FG shooting is also rock solid, but what’s crazy is that it could actually improve quite a bit. KD has made an impressive 51.5% of his 2-point shots this season, but his 3-point percentage has fallen from 42.2% last season to just 36% this year. It’s unlikely to happen this season, but Durant has a good shot of becoming the 1st player in NBA history to average over 30 ppg while shooting over 50% from the floor and over 90% from the line.

SF: LeBron James (see above)

PF: Dirk Nowitzki

25.4 points
8.0 rebounds
2.5 assists
1.0 steals
1.2 blocks
.7 threes
1.9 to’s
47.8 FG%
88.1 FT%

For the past decade, Dirk has been fantasy basketball’s most reliable superstar. Year in and year out he gets the job done, and this season is no exception. He’s averaging 25+ points for the 4th time in the past 6 years, he’s shooting over 47% from the field for the 5th straight season, he’s shooting over 86% from the line for the 8th straight season, he’s pulling down 8+ boards for the 10th straight year, and he’s committing fewer than 2.2 turnovers for the 5th straight year.

Despite shooting a rock solid 39% from beyond the arc, Dirk’s .7 made threes per game are his lowest average since his rookie year, but he’s made up for it by pumping up his steals and blocks. After combining for less than 1.6 steals + blocks in each of the past 3 seasons, Nowitzki is averaging a solid 1.2 swats + 1.0 thefts per contest this season. Once again, he’s one of the finest fantasy forwards around.

C: Brook Lopez

18.9 points
9.5 rebounds
2.2 assists
.8 steals
2.0 blocks
0 threes
2.5 to’s
49.3 FG%
84.5 FT%

While the Nets are on pace to have the worst record EVER, one bright spot has been shining all season long. Brook Lopez has proven that his rookie year was no fluke, and he’s going to be one of the league’s top centers for many years to come. He currently ranks 8th in blocked shots, 16th in rebounding, and 25th in scoring, joining Tim Duncan and Chris Kaman as the only players to rank in the Top 25 in all 3 categories.

Brook’s assists and steals are solid for a center, but he’s really rose to the top thanks to his excellent free throw shooting. After making 79.3% of his freebies on 2.6 attempts per game as a rookie, Lopez has pumped those numbers up to 84.5% FT shooting on 6.1 attempts per game. The only center getting to the line more often is Dwight Howard, but we know how ugly HIS FT% looks like. We’d like to see Brook’s mediocre field goal shooting rise, but that will happen as he gains more experience and is surrounded with better talent. At the age of 21, he’s already the #1 fantasy center.

All-Fantasy 2nd team

PG: Steve Nash

18.7 points
3.0 rebounds
11.1 assists
.4 steals
.2 blocks
1.6 threes
3.9 to’s
53.8 FG%
94.2 FT%

In a 2-category league that scores only steals and turnovers, Steve Nash would be the absolute worst player in the league. Despite those obvious flaws, Nash has still been strong enough everywhere else to make the All-Fantasy 2nd team. His per game assist numbers are a shade under CP3’s, but as far as total assists are concerned, Steve has 92 more than Kidd, 96 more than Rondo, 106 more than Paul, 110 more than Deron, and at least 140 more than everyone else. Of course, his dominance doesn’t end there.

The soon to be 36-year old is shooting a jaw-dropping 53.8% from the field and 94.2% from the line this season, both of which are career-highs. That’s quite remarkable for a guy who was already one of the most accurate shooters of all-time even before this season started. Now consider that his combined field goal + free throw attempts have climbed from 14.3 last year to 16.3 this season, and you see why his overall fantasy value has soared.

SG: Kobe Bryant

28.3 points
5.2 rebounds
4.5 assists
1.8 steals
.3 blocks
1.2 threes
2.9 to’s
46.3 FG%
83.1 FT%

Kobe has really struggled recently due to back and hand injuries, but he’s still been good enough to earn All-Fantasy 2nd team honors. While Wade dishes out more assists, Bryant gets the nod over him due to fewer turnovers (2.9 vs. 3.3) and vastly superior free throw shooting (Kobe is shooting over 81% from the line for an impressive 12th year in a row, while Wade is under 77% FT for the 3rd straight season).

There’s also plenty of room for improvement in Kobe’s stats, as his assists, blocks, threes, and 3P% are at their lowest levels in several years. However, if you’re worried about KB’s nagging injuries, then you may want to trade him for Wade before he starts missing games.

SF: Carmelo Anthony

30.0 points
6.3 rebounds
3.3 assists
1.2 steals
.3 blocks
.9 threes
3.1 to’s
47.6 FG%
86.8 FT%

What a difference a year makes! Melo averaged a meager 22.8 ppg last season (his lowest mark since ‘04-05), due to a combination of poor shooting (44.3% FG, his lowest mark since ‘04-05) and unaggressiveness (7.1 free throw attempts per game, his lowest mark since ‘03-04). This season he’s been much more aggressive around the rim, as his 9.7 free throw attempts rank 2nd, and are extra valuable because he’s shooting a career-best 86.8% from the line, good enough for 12th overall. Since his FG% has also improved drastically over last season, Melo leads the league in scoring.

Surprisingly, the rest of Anthony’s stats are nearly identical to last year’s, which shows how much one can improve his fantasy value simply by becoming a more efficient scorer. However, I have a hard time believing that Melo will continue to make over 86% of his freebies, so don’t be surprised if that slides in the 2nd half.

PF: Chris Bosh

23.8 points
11.1 rebounds
2.0 assists
.5 steals
1.1 blocks
.1 threes
2.3 to’s
52.3 FG%
78.5 FT%

Bosh has played like a man on a mission this season, posting career-highs in points (8th), rebounds (7th), free throw attempts (6th), and FG% (4th among players averaging 20+ points). Much like Dirk, Bosh excels in turnover leagues because he doesn’t cough the ball up as much as other superstars. He’s also shooting over 78% from the charity stripe for a 5th year in a row.

However, CB4 is averaging just 2.0 dimes per game, which will surely end his streak of 4 straight years averaging 2.5+ assists. Also, his lack of blocks continues to disappoint owners who know that he’s capable of more. Still, Bosh’s numbers have been excellent, and he’s surely going to get a fat contract this summer.

C: David Lee

19.1 points
11.2 rebounds
3.4 assists
1.0 steals
.3 blocks
0 threes
2.3 to’s
55.8 FG%
78.1 FT%

I won’t lie. As a David Lee owner, I was very worried when he averaged just 17.3 points and 9.3 rebounds in his first 11 games. However, he’s been a beast ever since then, averaging 19.8 points and 12.0 boards over his last 30 contests. And while Lee doesn’t block many shots, he’s surprised everyone by dishing out a career-best 3.4 assists, which is easily tops among all centers. In fact, he already has 10 games with 5 or more assists!

Lee is also a very efficient shooter, ranking 7th in FG% and 71st in FT% (5th among centers). After a slow start, D. Lee has been one of the most dominant big men around, and he doesn’t appear to be slowing down anytime soon.

All-Fantasy 3rd team

PG: Jason Kidd

9.0 points
5.3 rebounds
9.1 assists
1.6 steals
.6 blocks
1.9 threes
2.2 to’s
43.1 FG%
77.1 FT%

It’s Kidd’s 16th year in the NBA, but he still has plenty left in the tank. In fact, his outside shot has clearly aged well, as his 41.5% shooting from beyond the arc is a career-high, and his 1.9 treys per game and 43.1% FG shooting are both the 2nd highest marks of his career. Kidd is also blocking more shots than ever before (2nd behind Baron Davis among all point guards), and as usual is leading all PG’s in rebounds. While young gun Monta Ellis is scoring nearly three times as many points, he’s also averaging almost twice as many turnovers, giving Kidd the nod for 3rd team honors.

SG: Dwyane Wade

27.2 points
4.9 rebounds
6.2 assists
1.9 steals
1.3 blocks
1.0 threes
3.3 to’s
45.9 FG%
76.6 FT%

Wade’s stats have dropped off considerably this season, and as a result he’s fallen from 1st team to 3rd team status. While his boards, blocks, turnovers, and free throw shooting are nearly identical to last season, the rest of his numbers are not up to par. It starts with his sub-46% shooting from the field, which is the lowest mark of his CAREER. Likewise, Dwyane’s assists are also at their lowest level since the ‘04-05 season. He still ranks 5th in scoring and 6th in steals, but last year he ranked 1st and 2nd in those categories. However, Wade owners can’t complain TOO much, as he hasn’t missed a single game this season and is starting to turn it on in January, with averages of points and steals on % FG shooting over his last 11 games. He hasn’t played up to his abilities thus far, but he’s still one of the best around.

SF: Andre Iguodala

17.8 points
6.9 rebounds
5.9 assists
2.0 steals
.6 blocks
1.3 threes
2.8 to’s
42.7 FG%
77.3 FT%

On one hand, Iguodala’s 17.8 ppg average is his lowest in 4 years, and his career-low 42.7% FG shooting is the main culprit. However, he’s posting career-highs in rebounds, assists, and threes, and his 2.0 steals and .6 blocks is much better than the 1.6 and .4 that he averaged last year. Iggy is also shooting over 77% from the free throw line for just the 2nd time in his career, and is on pace to play in every single game for the 5th time in his 6 year career. Now if he can only improve that sorry field goal shooting!

PF: Gerald Wallace

18.5 points
11.3 rebounds
1.9 assists
1.7 steals
1.1 blocks
.6 threes
2.5 to’s
47.8 FG%
76.0 FT%

After finishing 22nd in rebounding last year with a 7.8 average, Wallace has crashed the glass in a big way this season, as his 11.3 total rebounds ranks 5th and his 9.1 defensive boards per game ranks 2nd (trailing only Dwight Howard). In addition, he’s playing more minutes (41.8 mpg ranks 2nd) and taking a lot more shots this year, and as a result his scoring average has increased. Best of all, the man dubbed “Crash” has missed just one game thus far. For a guy who’s never played more than 72 games in a season, that’s quite the accomplishment.

C: Tim Duncan

20.0 points
10.4 rebounds
3.1 assists
.5 steals
1.9 blocks
0 threes
2.0 to’s
55.2 FG%
73.8 FT%

He’s sat out a few games already, but Duncan is still getting the job done for his fantasy owners. The 33-year old ranks 9th in blocks, 10th in boards, 10th in FG%, and 19th in scoring, and his 3.1 assists per game trails only David Lee among centers. He’s also cut his turnovers down to just 2.0 per game this year, so he doesn’t hurt you in turnover leagues. If Timmy can maintain his current shooting %’s, he’ll set a career-high in FG% while posting a 2nd-best mark in FT%.

All-Fantasy Honorable Mentions

G: Rajon Rondo

13.8 points
4.0 rebounds
9.7 assists
2.5 steals
.2 blocks
.2 threes
2.9 to’s
52.8 FG%
58.4 FT%

I had to give Rondo serious consideration for 3rd team honors, but his lack of threes, high turnovers (compared to Kidd), and terrible free throw shooting really hurts him. That being said, if there’s a 6-category league that excludes those cats, Rondo would easily be a Top 5 player. He leads the league in steals, ranks 3rd in assists, and is 18th in FG%. His field goal attempts have gone up from 9.5 last year to 11.3 this season, which has resulted in a career-high in scoring and Rondo being one of the top guards around.

G: Monta Ellis

26.4 points
4.2 rebounds
5.4 assists
2.3 steals
.4 blocks
.7 threes
4.2 to’s
46.3 FG%
75.6 FT%

Ellis has been a scoring machine ever since Stephen Jackson got traded, and his season ppg average trails only Wade, Kobe, Durant, LeBron, and Carmelo. He ranks 2nd in steals and 16th in assists, and his boards and blocks are rock solid for a PG-eligible player. However, Monta’s shooting %’s have only been average, and his ridiculously high turnover rate prevents him from receiving 2nd or 3rd team honors.

F: Paul Pierce

18.6 points
4.8 rebounds
3.7 assists
1.3 steals
.4 blocks
1.9 threes
2.3 to’s
46.7 FG%
83.5 FT%

The Celtics have needed Paul Pierce to step up with Garnett missing so many games, and The Truth has done just that. His scoring average is the lowest it’s been since his rookie year, and his rebounds and shot attempts are currently at career-low levels, but he’s improved in other categories. After grabbing 1.0 steals and .3 blocks last year, Pierce has improved in both of those categories. He’s also shooting a blistering 46.8% from behind the arc, good enough for 4th overall. The career-low in turnovers is icing on the cake.

F: Pau Gasol

17.0 points
11.2 rebounds
3.3 assists
.4 steals
1.7 blocks
0 threes
2.1 to’s
54.9 FG%
86.3 FT%

Sure he’s missed a bunch of games, but when he’s played, Pau has easily been a Top 12 fantasy player. He’s done so by obliterating his previous career-highs in rebounding (11.3 vs. 9.8) and free throw shooting (86.3% vs. 81.9%). He also ranks 11th in FG% and 15th in blocks, and his low turnovers make him a better option than Carlos Boozer. Despite the continued emergence of Andrew Bynum, Pau Gasol is still one of the finest fantasy big guys around.

C: Marcus Camby

8.2 points
11.6 rebounds
3.1 assists
1.3 steals
2.1 blocks
.1 threes
1.3 to’s
49.3 FG%
73.0 FT%

Chris Kaman has been a scoring machine this season, but Camby has still been the better fantasy player due to his superior shot-blocking skills and low turnovers (1.3 per game compared to 3.0 for Kaman). Chris has also missed 4 games this season, compared to just 1 for Marcus. The 35-year old still has plenty left in the tank, ranking 3rd in rebounds and 7th in blocks. Among all big men, he trails only Nene and Josh Smith in the steals department, and is one of the leading passers for his position as well. Just remember that the Clippers might trade him soon, which would hurt his value if his playing time goes down.

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Please note that I will continue to write free articles for this site, but most of our best fantasy basketball content is now being reserved for our subscribers-only site. This Week 3 Outlook is just one example of what subscribers gain access to, but even if you didn’t purchase our Draft Guide, it’s not too late to become an in-season subscriber. For more information on how to subscribe, please go the bottom of this page.

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Evil’s Outlook goes around the league and examines which players are hot and cold and which players you should keep an eye on. Listed first are the # of games played for each team, followed by 5 teams with poor and favorable schedules. I have also used Yahoo’s “% Owned” stat to focus on players who are owned in less than 2/3 of their leagues but should really be owned in almost every normal sized league.

If you’re in a league with weekly lineup changes and no games played limit and are unsure who to start, simply take a look at the start/borderline/bench recommendations. This week’s outlook suggests 92 players who are solid starts and 59 players who are borderline, so adjust accordingly if your league is much smaller or larger. Enjoy the Week 3 Outlook!

4 games: DAL, GSW, HOU, LAC, MIN, NOR, OKC, PHI, PHO, POR, TOR, UTA
3 games: ATL, BOS, CHA, CHI, CLE, DEN, DET, LAL, MEM, MIA, NJN, NYK, ORL, SAS
2 games: IND, MIL, SAC, WAS

5 Poor Schedules

1. Washington Wizards (2 games – @Miami, Detroit)
2. Charlotte Bobcats (3 games – Orlando, @Detroit, Portland)
3. Orlando Magic (3 games – @Charlotte, Cleveland, New Jersey)
4. Cleveland Cavaliers (3 games – @Orlando, @Miami, Utah)
5. New Jersey Nets (3 games – Philadelphia, @Orlando, @Miami)

5 Favorable Schedules

1. Golden State Warriors (4 games – Minnesota, @Indiana, @New York, @Milwaukee)
2. Houston Rockets (4 games – @Dallas, Memphis, @Sacramento, @LA Lakers)
3. Phoenix Suns (4 games – @Philadelphia, New Orleans, @LA Lakers, Toronto)
4. Los Angeles Lakers (3 games – Phoenix, @Denver, Houston)
5. Memphis Grizzlies (3 games – Portland, @Houston, Minnesota)

Should Be Owned (but AREN’T in 35% or more of Yahoo leagues)

1. Kevin Love
2. Tyreke Evans
3. Brendan Haywood
4. TJ Ford
5. Roy Hibbert

Solid Short-Term Pickups

1. Beno Udrih
2. Rafer Alston
3. Terrence Williams
4. Quentin Richardson
5. George Hill

Atlanta Hawks (3 games)

The Hawks dominated Denver on Saturday and looked very good doing it. Josh Smith had one of the best all-around games of the season thus far, scoring 22 points on 8-10 FG and 6-8 FT shooting, to go along with 9 rebounds, 7 assists, 6 blocks, and just 1 turnover. J-Smoov’s shot selection has been MUCH better this season, and during the post-game interview with NBATV, he flat-out said that there’s no need for him to take any threes this year since the rest of his teammates (minus Horford & Pachulia) are solid outside shooters. This confirms that his FG% will remain well over 50% (currently 57.3% FG) for the entire season, and as long as he can stay healthy, Smith will be a Top 25 fantasy player this season, despite the poor free throw shooting. Mark my words. I firmly believe this after watching today’s game and the follow-up interview. It’s his 6th year in the league, and J-Smoov finally “gets it.” Jamal Crawford also remained hot, and has now scored 25+ points in 3 of his last 4 games. On the flipside, Bibby’s value has been quite limited with Crawford & Teague around.

START: J. Johnson, J-Smoov, Horford, Crawford
BORDERLINE: Bibby
BENCH: M. Williams

Boston Celtics (3 games)

The Celtics finally gave up 100+ points and lost their 1st game of the season to the Suns recently, but still look very sharp early on. KG dropped 26 points on the Suns and followed it up with 13 boards and 3 steals vs. the Nets, so the superstar fantasy potential is still there. Rondo picked up 5 more steals on Saturday and is now averaging a ridiculous 3.1 thefts per game. Ray Allen is averaging just 11.8 points in his last 4, so expect a bounceback game soon.

START: Garnett, Rondo, Pierce
BORDERLINE: R. Allen, Perkins, R. Wallace

Charlotte Bobcats (3 games)

Gerald Wallace is one of the more interesting fantasy players early on, as he currently leads the league with 13.8 rebounds per game, but is shooting just 32% from the field. As a TEAM, the Bobcats are shooting under 40% FG, so there have been plenty of rebound chances. Boris Diaw had his 1st really strong game of the season on Saturday, dropping 20 points, 7 boards, 5 dimes, 3 threes, 3 steals, and 1 block on 8-14 FG shooting. After a poor start, this is a really good sign for Diaw owners. Tyson Chandler has also picked up his play recently, averaging 10.3 points, 8.3 boards, and 2.7 blocks in his last 3 games. Unlike Kevin Martin, Raja Bell is playing thru his wrist injury, which is not good news for DJ Augustin owners. To make matters worse, Flip Murray has returned from his chin injury and actually got more PT than Augustin on Saturday (14 minutes to 11). If a solid replacement is available, feel free to cut him, but I’m personally not going to give up on DJ just yet. Charlotte has a very unfriendly schedule this week, so I suggest benching Felton & Chandler.

START: G. Wallace, Diaw
BORDERLINE: Felton, T. Chandler
BENCH: Augustin, R. Bell
ADD or KEEP AN EYE ON: R. Bell
DROP or LOOK TO REPLACE: Augustin

Chicago Bulls (3 games)

It was a brutal week for Tyrus Thomas (and his fantasy owners), that culminated with him needing surgery to fix a broken left arm. Part of me wonders if Vinny Del Negro is secretly smiling now, and TT owners have a tough decision to make. Of course, the only league where I owned Thomas has daily lineup changes and no IR spot, so I almost HAD to drop him. Chicago is basically using a 7-man rotation now, which is good news for owners of Noah and Deng in particular. Joakim exploded for a career-high 21 points, 16 boards, and 4 blocks on Saturday, and should be a fantasy force while Thomas is out. Deng is pulling down more rebounds than ever before as well, and I expect the trend to continue. Great news for John Salmons owners, as the swingman had his best game of the season on Saturday (27 points on 9-16 FG, 7 rebounds, 6 assists, 3 steals, 2 threes) and appears to be heating up. Taj Gibson hasn’t done much yet, but keep an eye on him if you need blocks.

START: D. Rose, Salmons, Noah, Deng
BORDERLINE: Hinrich, B. Miller
BENCH: Ty Thomas (in deep leagues)
ADD or KEEP AN EYE ON: T. Gibson
DROP or LOOK TO REPLACE: Ty Thomas (in shallow leagues)

Cleveland Cavaliers (3 games)

The Cavs lost their 3rd game of the year on Thursday, but LeBron returned on Friday to drop an easy 33 points on 12-17 shooting vs. the Knicks. He also dropped 9 dimes and is now averaging 8 assists per game, well above his career average of 6.7. Despite coming off the bench vs. the fast-paced Knicks, Anderson Varejao still managed to pull down 14 rebounds and add 2 steals and 2 blocks. He’s still a fine source of threes, but Anthony Parker has been very unreliable since Delonte returned, and you should look to replace him if you haven’t already. Meanwhile, JJ Hickson started on Friday to give the Cavs a faster lineup, but only had 6 points and 2 boards in 13 minutes. Still, he should now be on your radar, because Hickson is very talented and athletic.

START: LeBron, Mo Williams
BORDERLINE: Varejao, Shaq
ADD or KEEP AN EYE ON: Delonte, Hickson
DROP or LOOK TO REPLACE: Big Z, A. Parker

Dallas Mavericks (4 games)

Josh Howard finally returned from his offseason ankle surgery on Saturday, and the Mavs rolled to a 129-101 win over Toronto. Howard racked up 16 points and 3 steals in just 24 minutes, so he’s worth starting for the week ahead. Surprisingly, Howard’s return didn’t hurt either Marion (18 points, 8 boards in 29 minutes) or Terry (19 points, 3 treys in 32 minutes off the bench), but the situation bares monitoring. JJ Barea dropped 12 dimes in just 24 minutes on Saturday, while Kidd had just 6 assists in 26 minutes. Barea will continue to get extra PT whenever there’s a blowout, so consider him in deep leagues with daily transactions. After an impressive start to the season, Dampier finally fell back to Earth on Saturday, recording just 6 boards and 1 block in 18 minutes. You didn’t expect 12 boards and 3 blocks to last, did you?

START: Dirk, Kidd, Marion, J. Howard, Terry
BORDERLINE: Dampier, Barea
ADD or KEEP AN EYE ON: Dampier, Barea

Denver Nuggets (3 games)

Kenyon Martin left Friday’s game with a leg injury and is going to miss more than a week, so keep him on your bench for now. Balkman started in his absence, but had just 2 points, 1 rebound, and 5 fouls in 11 minutes on Saturday. Both Balkman and Birdman should get extra playing time while Martin is out, and Melo will spend extra time at power forward as well. Nene has yet to score 20+ points yet, but I’m predicting a big scoring night for him very soon. JR Smith will make his season debut this Tuesday, but he’ll likely be a little rusty, so I don’t suggest starting him yet.

START: Carmelo, Billups, Nene
BORDERLINE: JR Smith, Birdman
BENCH: K-Mart, Lawson
ADD or KEEP AN EYE ON: Lawson

Detroit Pistons (3 games)

After a slow start, Villanueva is finally getting comfortable, as he scored 28 points on 11-17 FG shooting on Friday and had 16 points and 7 boards in the game prior. Consider picking him up if he was dropped, as he should continue to get better. Despite shooting just 34% FG over his last 5 games, Stuckey is still averaging 17.4 points, 7 boards, and 4 assists. So when his shooting efficiency improves, his numbers should be very solid. Hamilton is day-to-day, but Prince is out indefinitely with a lower back injury, so look for healthier options. Will Bynum had just 7 points and 2 assists on Friday, but is still averaging 11.5 points and 3.5 dimes for the season, making him a solid play in deep leagues. Rookie forwards Jonas Jerebko and Austin Daye have gotten playing time with Prince out, and both have used their length to block shots. Keep an eye on them in deep leagues, as both guys have nice potential.

START: B. Gordon, Stuckey, Villanueva
BORDERLINE: Hamilton, W. Bynum
BENCH: Prince
ADD or KEEP AN EYE ON: B. Wallace, Jerebko, Daye

Golden St. Warriors (4 games)

In a very embarrasing home loss, the Warriors got blown out by the Clippers on Friday. You can’t blame Anthony Morrow, as the sweet shooter has scored 42 points and made 7 treys on 16-26 FG shooting in his last 2 games. You shouldn’t have dropped him after his poor start, but if you did, I suggest picking him back up. Curry has seen his minutes decline due to Morrow’s solid play, but he’s still a solid starter in most leagues. Both Turiaf and Biedrins missed Friday’s game with injuries, which enabled Anthony Randolph to record season-highs in minutes (29), points (13), and rebounds (14). Still, he shot just 5-15 from the floor and most of his PT came in garbage time. His upside is too high to drop him, so hang on a little while longer if you can. Maggette played just 18 minutes on Friday and is now shooting just 36% FG on the season, and I don’t see his value increasing any time soon. The Warriors have a very favorable schedule in week 3, so start them if you have them.

START: Ellis, Curry, S. Jackson, Morrow, Azubuike
BORDERLINE: Biedrins, A. Randolph, Maggette
BENCH: Turiaf

Houston Rockets (4 games)

The Rockets have recently beaten the Thunder, Jazz, and Blazers, and lost by just 1 point to the Lakers. At 4-2, they now stand atop the Southwest division, and I’ve got to give credit where credit is due. Despite having the flu, Ariza played on Friday and dropped 21 point, 6 assists, and 2 threes. Scola had another strong game (19 points, 10 rebounds), and should be a rock solid starter the rest of the way. After a poor start, my boy Carl Landry (I drafted him in several leagues) has recorded 41 points and 17 boards on 71% FG shooting in his last 2 games! Despite being questionable with an ankle injury, Chase Budinger managed to score 16 points on Friday. He’s been very productive off the bench thus far, and is even more worthy of a pickup now. In one of the more impressive statlines thus far, 6-foot PG Kyle Lowry managed to dish out 8 assists and block a whopping 4 shots in just 20 minutes on Friday! Perhaps most deserving of a mention is Chuck Hayes. He continues to rack up the hustle stats, and is now a legit fantasy starter in deep leagues. For more on Hayes, please see here and here.
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/sports/justice/6706326.html
http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/10419/world-please-notice-chuck-hayes

START: Ariza, Brooks, Scola, Battier, Landry, Hayes
BORDERLINE: Budinger, Lowry
BENCH: T-Mac
ADD or KEEP AN EYE ON: Budinger, Lowry, Hayes

Indiana Pacers (2 games)

Despite not having Troy Murphy, the Pacers have won 2 games in a row. Granger continues to struggle shooting the ball, but has amassed 11 steals and 4 blocks in his last 3 games. TJ Ford FINALLY played big minutes on Friday, scoring 18 points, dropping 4 dimes, and grabbing 10 boards in 40 minutes. Dahntay Jones also played 40 minutes and is now averaging 16 ppg over his last 5 games. I still don’t believe that he can keep this pace up, but he’s now worth consideration in deep leagues. Roy Hibbert blocked 5 shots on Friday and is now tied for 1st in that category with Erick Dampier. Rookie Tyler Hansbrough had an impressive NBA debut vs. Washington, posting 13 points and 5 rebounds in just 14 minutes. Still, he’ll only have value if Murphy is out for an extended period of time. Rush injured his ankle on Friday, so monitor his status moving forward.

BORDERLINE: Granger, Hibbert
BENCH: Murphy, Ford, B. Rush
ADD or KEEP AN EYE ON: D. Jones, S. Jones

L.A. Clippers (4 games)

Shockingly, the Clippers have won 3 straight games, albeit against the Grizzlies, Warriors, and T-Wolves. Chris Kaman continues to dominate, and I’m guessing that every team that owns him is doing fairly well. Eric Gordon also continues to stuff the stat sheet, with 15 treys and 9 steals in his last 5 games. Rasual Butler is now officially the Clippers starting small forward, but he’s shooting just 33% from the field in his last 5 games. Still, Rasual got 7 rebounds and 17 shot attempts on Saturday, and should be a decent starter moving forward. I advised people to avoid Thornton completely, and he should now be dropped if you were still hanging onto him. Sebastian Telfair has been getting decent burn recently, and is now worth consideration in ultra-deep leagues.

START: Kaman, Baron, E. Gordon, Camby
BORDERLINE: R. Butler
BENCH: Griffin
ADD or KEEP AN EYE ON: R. Butler, Telfair
DROP or LOOK TO REPLACE: Thornton

L.A. Lakers (3 games)

Bynum missed Friday’s game with a strained elbow, but the injury is supposed to be minor (check for an update before setting your lineup). DJ Mbenga got the start in his place and responded with an impressive 13 boards and 4 blocks. However, Lamar Odom had just 3 points on 1-6 shooting, and that’s very disappointing considering the injuries. Kobe has scored 41 points in back-to-back games, and you may want to sell high on him before Gasol comes back. Ron Artest has made 8 threes and grabbed 7 steals in his last 3 games, and is now a must-start in most leagues.

START: Kobe, Artest, Odom
BORDERLINE: Bynum
BENCH: P. Gasol, Fisher

Memphis Grizzlies (3 games)

Always the center of attention, Allen Iverson was granted permission to leave the team for personal reasons on Saturday. Marcus Williams had 6 assists in 16 minutes in his absence, but is not worth adding unless AI is going to be out for an extended period. This should give Mike Conley a slight confidence boost however, so feel free to gamble on him this week. Rudy Gay is RED HOT, averaging 26.3 points, 7.8 rebounds, 1.5 steals, and 1.3 threes on 51% FG shooting over his last 4 games. Meanwhile, Mayo has been awfully quiet since his 40-point game, and attempted 0 free throw attempts on Saturday (inexcusable for someone who’s supposed to be a big-time scorer). Marc Gasol continues to inhale rebounds, but his scoring has been down in recent games. Zach Randolph’s stats look very juicy right now, making him a strong sell high candidate (do you really want to rely on Z-Bo all year long?).

START: Gay, Mayo, M. Gasol, Z. Randolph
BORDERLINE: Conley
BENCH: Iverson

Miami Heat (3 games)

After beating the Nuggets on Friday, the Heat are now 5-1 and tied for 1st in the Southeast division. That’s surprising because D. Wade is shooting just 44.6% FG thus far, which is well below the norm for him. Jermaine O’Neal had 18 points, 7 boards, and 3 blocks vs. Denver, and looks much healthier this season. Beasley continues to sit in crunch time, and that’s really limiting his fantasy value. Mario Chalmers finally got hot from outside, draining 4 threes en route to 16 points on Friday. Q-Rich shot just 1-7 from beyond the arc, but is still grabbing rebounds at a very high rate. Daequan Cook is out indefinitely with a shoulder injury and James Jones is out of the rotation, so Richardson is now a decent pickup and Dorell Wright may get more PT as well.

START: Wade, J. O’Neal
BORDERLINE: Beasley, Haslem, Chalmers, Q-Rich
ADD or KEEP AN EYE ON: Q-Rich

Milwaukee Bucks (2 games)

Surprisingly, the Bucks have won 2 games in a row and are now over .500 on the season (enjoy it while it lasts Milwaukee fans). Jennings had just 3 assists to 5 turnovers on Saturday, but continues to rack up points and steals. Andrew Bogut is starting to play with a lot of confidence, and is now averaging 18.3 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 2 blocks on 57% FG shooting over his last 3 games. Congrats if you gambled on the Aussie this year. Unfortunately, everyone else is still a risky start at this point. Delfino has made 6 treys in 4 games, but has yet to score in double digits. Ilyasova surprised with 13 rebounds, 4 assists, 1 steal, and 1 block in just 23 minutes on Saturday, so he may earn more PT moving forward. Ditto for rookie Jodie Meeks, who nailed 5 threes en route to 19 points in his first extensive NBA action.

BORDERLINE: Jennings, Bogut
BENCH: Redd, Warrick
ADD or KEEP AN EYE ON: Delfino, Ilyasova, Meeks

Minnesota Timberwolves (4 games)

After winning their season opener, Minnesota has dropped 5 straight and need lots of help. Al Jefferson is averaging just 15.3 points and 6.0 rebounds, and I have a hard time believing that he’s 100% healthy. Both Ramon Sessions and Ryan Gomes have been major disappointments thus far, and I suggest looking for replacements for both guys. Jonny Flynn had 20 points and 3 steals on Friday, and has gotten 33 minutes in each of the past 2 games (a good sign for his owners moving forward). Oleksiy Pecherov AKA Stewie has posted decent numbers recently, and is worth a short-term pickup if you’re desperate for help. Just remember that he’ll be worthless when Kevin Love returns in a couple of weeks.

START: A. Jefferson, Flynn, C. Brewer
BORDERLINE: Sessions, Gomes, Pecherov
BENCH: Love
ADD or KEEP AN EYE ON: Pecherov
DROP or LOOK TO REPLACE: Sessions, Gomes

New Jersey Nets (3 games)

The Nets are really hurting right now, as Devin Harris could miss the rest of November with his groin injury, Yi is still out, and Douglas-Roberts is out with the swine flu. Courtney Lee is also dealing with a groin injury, and if you were thinking about cutting him, this could give you the extra motivation to make the move. Rafer Alston has been up and down as the starting PG, but he posted a solid line of 44 minutes, 20 points, 7 assists, and 3 treys on Saturday vs. Boston, and is a nice fill-in while Harris is out. Rookie Terrence Williams is shooting just 36% from the floor, but showed off his versatile skills recently by dishing out 9 assists on Friday and then grabbing 9 boards on Saturday. Another guy to watch & consider is Josh Boone, as the big man pulled down 12 rebounds in 37 minutes on Saturday and may start at power forward until Yi comes back.

START: B. Lopez, Alston
BORDERLINE: T. Williams
BENCH: Harris, Jianlian, Douglas-Roberts
ADD or KEEP AN EYE ON: Alston, T. Williams, Boone
DROP or LOOK TO REPLACE: C. Lee

New Orleans Hornets (4 games)

The Hornets fell to 2-4 on Friday, and Chris Paul cannot be happy. CP3 is doing everything he can, but his teammates simply aren’t stepping up. David West had just 4 rebounds and 2 FT attempts, and he clearly needs to be more aggressive. Mo-Pete is shooting just 34% FG, and he’s about to be replaced by Devin Brown in the starting lineup. However, Bobby Brown also continues to get big minutes off the bench, and has scored 34 points and made 4 threes in his last 2 contests. Keep an eye on Bobby since none of their other shooters are producing. Peja is just 3-14 in his last 2 games, but is worth consideration since the Hornets have 4 games this week.

START: Paul, D. West, Okafor
BORDERLINE: Stojakovic, B. Brown
ADD or KEEP AN EYE ON: B. Brown, D. Brown
DROP or LOOK TO REPLACE: J. Wright

New York Knicks (3 games)

The Knicks lost to Milwaukee by 15 points on Saturday and have dropped to 1-6 on the season. They gave up a whopping 58 points in the paint to the Bucks and were outrebounded 54-34, and clearly need some help defensively. Even D. Lee has been pretty quiet on the glass, which is very surprising. Wilson Chandler had just 3 points on 1-10 shooting on Saturday, and is now shooting just 34% FG. After a couple of poor games, Gallinari has bounced back quite nicely (7 threes, 3 steals in his last 2 contests), which is a good sign for his long-term value. Larry Hughes has put up decent all-around numbers recently, and is worth owning as long as he’s getting 30+ minutes per game. Rookie guard Toney Douglas managed to score 16 points and drain 4 threes in just 17 minutes vs. the Bucks, and will have value if Duhon gets hurt.

START: D. Lee, Harrington, Gallinari
BORDERLINE: W. Chandler, Duhon, Hughes
ADD or KEEP AN EYE ON: Hughes

Oklahoma City Thunder (4 games)

Kevin Durant recently complained that the energy he’s spending on defense is taking away from his offensive game, and while that’s a convenient excuse, 15% 3P shooting is simply unacceptable no matter what. Still, I expect a monster game from KD very soon. Jeff Green shot just 3-15 on Friday, but still managed to salvage his line with 2 steals and 2 blocks. Westbrook exploded for 33 points and 7 assists on 14-25 shooting, and he even made a three for good measure. Rookie James Harden played just 10 minutes on Friday and has yet to score in double digits. I just dropped him for Q-Rich, and you should look to replace him as well. Nick Collison played a season-high 22 minutes on Friday and Etan Thomas has been very effective, so you probably want to dump Krstic as well.

START: Durant, Green, Westbrook
BENCH: Sefolosha
ADD or KEEP AN EYE ON: E. Thomas, Collison
DROP or LOOK TO REPLACE: Harden, Krstic

Orlando Magic (3 games)

Dwight Howard hasn’t had a monster game in awhile, but he made 8-of-9 free throws on Friday and is now shooting 69% FT for the season. How long will it last? Jameer Nelson has shot the ball better recently, so hopefully he can keep it up. Ryan Anderson has been rock solid to start the season, but he left Friday’s game with a sprained ankle and is out for Sunday’s game. Carter is still sidelined with an ankle injury of his own, so only start him if he plays in Sunday’s game. Matt Barnes has posted strong all-around numbers recently, but his playing time will dwindle when Lewis returns. Redick has made 13 treys in his last 4 games, but I would still be hesitant to start him this week.

START: D. Howard, Nelson
BORDERLINE: V. Carter, R. Anderson, Barnes
BENCH: Lewis
ADD or KEEP AN EYE ON: Redick

Philadelphia 76ers (4 games)

Lou Williams is playing great thus far, averaging 17.2 points, 5.6 boards, 5.2 assists, and 1.6 steals on 53% FG and 84% FT shooting. Elton Brand continues to disappoint, averaging just 7 points in 23.5 minutes in his last 2 games. If you weren’t worried before, you should be now. Meanwhile, Speights continues to play well, and has earned more playing time moving forward. Thaddeus Young has been really quiet recently, but I’m expecting a bouceback game soon. Jason Kapono had his best game of the season on Friday, scoring 14 points and making 4 treys in 20 minutes. Keep an eye on him in deep leagues, since Philly always needs outside shooting help.

START: Iguodala, Lou-Will, Brand, T. Young, Speights
BORDERLINE: Dalembert
ADD or KEEP AN EYE ON: Kapono

Phoenix Suns (4 games)

The Suns upset the Celtics in Boston on Friday, and Amare is starting to play better. Stoudemire posted 22 points on 8-13 FG shooting, but his rebounding numbers continue to be below average. After going scoreless last Wednesday, J-Rich exploded for 34 points, 6 threes, and 10 rebounds on Friday. While the threes were impressive, the fact that he cleaned the glass well and also got to the line 11 times is what makes me feel good about owning him. Channing Frye has scored in single-digits in 3 straight games, so expect him to bounce back soon. Barbosa could return on Sunday, so be ready to pick him up if he plays well. The Suns have a favorable schedule this week, so don’t be afraid to start them.

START: Nash, Amare, J-Rich, Hill, Frye
BORDERLINE: Barbosa, Amundson
ADD or KEEP AN EYE ON: Amundson

Portland Trail Blazers (4 games)

In perhaps the most important lineup change of the week, Andre Miller was moved into the starting lineup ALONGSIDE Steve Blake on Friday, with Martell Webster moving to the bench. Since the Blazers played well and Nate McMillan said that he’s going to stick with it for at least another week or two, Miller is worth a pickup if he was dropped. The move also seemed to help Blake, as he scored 15 points and made 3 treys in 38 minutes. The move really hurts Webster however, as he played just 13 minutes off the bench. If you picked up Martell recently, start looking for a replacement. Ditto for Rudy Fernandez. Oden has struggled to stay out of foul trouble recently, but scored a season-high 14 points on Friday, against Tim Duncan no less.

START: Roy, Aldridge, Oden, A. Miller, Blake
BORDERLINE: Webster, Outlaw, Przybilla
ADD or KEEP AN EYE ON: A. Miller
DROP or LOOK TO REPLACE: Webster, Fernandez

Sacramento Kings (2 games)

Of course, the big news out of Sacramento is that Kevin Martin has decided to have surgery on his left wrist and will miss around 8 weeks. Considering that the injury is on his NON-shooting hand and that Martin had 29 points and 11 rebounds on 11-22 FG shooting last Wednesday (when he already had the injury but didn’t know about it yet), he could have probably played thru it if he really wanted to. But Kev-Mart doesn’t seem to mind being labeled as SOFT, and it’s okay for fantasy owners and Kings fans to hate him for it. If he returns in 8 weeks, then he could be back for Sacramento’s January 2nd game at home vs. Dallas. The Kings would have 50 games left on their schedule then, meaning the maximum # of games Martin could play in this year would be 55. Sadly, that’s par for the course now, as Kev played just 51 games last year and 61 the year before. As a result, Beno Udrih has been moved back into the starting lineup, with Evans sliding over to shooting guard.

With the injury-prone ball-hog out of the lineup, the Kings should have a more balanced scoring attack. They shocked Utah on Saturday by beating them in Salt Lake City, and Tyreke Evans had a season-high 32 points and 7 assists on 7-15 FG and 16-19 FT shooting. He’ll get more scoring opportunities with Martin out, and will have less pressure to initiate the offense and create for others with Beno helping him out. The rook should now be owned in almost all leagues, but don’t expect him to be NEARLY this efficient on most nights. Udrih had 15 points and 4 assists in 33 minutes, and is also worth a pickup in deep leagues. Just remember that Udrih’s upside is limited. Andres Nocioni shook off his DUI arrest (a suspension will likely follow) to drain 4 threes en route to 14 points vs. Utah, and the Kings will need his outside shooting to space the floor. They combined for just 19 points on Saturday, but I’m expecting both Hawes and Thompson to play larger roles on offense now that Martin is out. Since both Spencer and JT got off to slow starts, both youngsters are solid trade targets. Also keep an eye on Ime Udoka and Omri Casspi, as the Kings bench is very thin now and those are their best guys.

BORDERLINE: T. Evans, Hawes, Thompson
BENCH: Kev-Mart, Nocioni, Udrih
ADD or KEEP AN EYE ON: Udrih, Casspi, Udoka

San Antonio Spurs (3 games)

Surprisingly, the Spurs have lost 2 games in a row and are now just 2-3. Tony Parker sprained his ankle on Friday and will be out for a week or so, so make sure he’s on your bench this week. George Hill had just 8 points and 0 assists in 32 minutes, but is a decent short-term pickup with Parker out. Look for Ginobili and Jefferson to pick up some of the scoring slack as well, making both decent plays for the week ahead. Keith Bogans has replaced Finley as the starting 2 guard, but should only be considered in the deepest of leagues.

START: Duncan, Ginobili, R. Jefferson
BORDERLINE: Blair, G. Hill
BENCH: T. Parker
ADD or KEEP AN EYE ON: Blair, G. Hill, Bogans

Toronto Raptors (4 games)

Chris Bosh had 26 points and 12 boards on Saturday while playing in his hometown of Dallas, but he also gave up 29 and 9 to Dirk on the other end. Jose Calderon finally woke up and has totaled 29 points, 15 assists, and 3 steals in his last 2 games, so hopefully he can keep it going for awhile. Still, I worry about Jose’s consistency and recommend dealing him if you can get a solid player in return. DeRozan, Wright, and Belinelli continue to do very little, while Jack has suddenly made 5 treys in his last 2 games, so keep an eye on Jarrett in deep leagues.

START: Bosh, Calderon, Bargnani, Turkoglu
ADD or KEEP AN EYE ON: Jack

Utah Jazz (4 games)

The Jazz lost to the Kings on Saturday and are now just 2-4 on the season. Deron Williams had 29 points, 15 assists, 3 threes, and 2 steals, and if he could duplicate those threes and steals every night, he’d easily be a Top 5 fantasy player. Boozer continues to get the bulk of the minutes at power forward and is racking up double-doubles, while Millsap hit a new low with just 5 points and 3 boards in 19 minutes on Saturday. It’s been tough for Millsap owners, but his upside is too high to drop him. Ronnie Brewer has been very quiet recently, but I’m predicting a breakout game for both he and Millsap on Monday vs. the Knicks.

START: Deron, Okur, Boozer, Kirilenko
BORDERLINE: R. Brewer, Millsap

Washington Wizards (2 games)

The Wizards got blown out by the Pacers on Friday, and neither Flip Saunders nor Arenas were happy about it. Caron Butler had season-highs in both points (24) and FG attempts (21), and that should continue for awhile because Mike Miller & Jamison are injured. Miller hurt his shoulder recently and will be out 7-10 days, so keep an eye on Randy Foye. Blatche played just 16 minutes on Friday, while Haywood had a monster night with 19 boards and 4 blocks. Soon of you may have dumped Brendan for Blatche after Andray’s hot start, but Haywood is the much better long-term option. Not only does Washington only have 2 games this week, but both the Heat and Pistons are not very fantasy-friendly.

BORDERLINE: Arenas, C. Butler
BENCH: Haywood, Blatche, Foye, M. Miller, Jamison

For only $9, you can get RotoEvil’s complete In-Season Analysis package featuring: player pickup recommendations, tri-weekly email updates, weekly outlooks, updated player rankings, access to the members-only discussion forum, and more! To complete your purchase, simply click on the link below:

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The upcoming season is right around the corner, and a lot of people have been asking me where they can find legit money leagues. Unfortunately, there aren’t many options out there, so to help fill the void, I’m organizing a few leagues this year.

Below, I will list all relevant details to the Draft Masters Challenge leagues. If you’re interested, please send me an email and/or add a comment below. We need people to sign up as quickly as possible to determine how many leagues we can fill, and then all leagues will be finalized by Friday, October 23rd.

RotoE’s Draft Masters Challenge (DMC)

1. Objective

The objective of the Draft Masters Challenge is to bring the finest fantasy basketball websites, the most notable NBA writers and statisticians, and the most die-hard hoops fans together to compete in a contest of 90% skill/10% luck, as measured by the methods described in the rules below.

2. Number of: Teams, Rounds, and Leagues

Teams: There will be 15 teams in each Draft Masters Challenge league.

Rounds: Each draft will last 12 rounds.

Leagues: There will be a minimum of 1 and a maximum of 5 DMC leagues this year.

3. The Draft: When and Where

When: Live drafts will be held on Sunday, October 25th. The 3 times that we are considering are: 1pm PST (4pm EST), 4pm PST (7pm EST), and 7pm PST (10pm EST). When signing up, please list your #1 and #2 time preference.

Where: The drafts will be hosted by MockDraftCentral.com. Their draft software tool is superb, and if you haven’t used it before you’re in for a treat (test it out by clicking here). Of course, our leagues won’t be mock drafts; they’ll be the real thing. Thanks to Geoff Stein, we will also be able to implement 3rd Round Reversal.

4. Draft Order: KDS and 3RR

KDS: KDS is short for “Kentucky Derby Style,” and it allows owners to rank their order of preference for Draft Day. Some owners may want an early 1st round pick, some may want a middle 1st round pick, and some may want a late 1st round pick. To determine the draft order, each owner ranks his preferences 1-15. A sample KDS for an owner who wants to pick at either the beginning or the end (but not the middle) might read: 1, 2, 3, 15, 14, 13, 4, 5, 12, 11, 10, 9, 6, 7, 8. By utilizing KDS, most owners are likely to get a more preferred draft spot than if the order was simply chosen randomly. Once KDS preferences for each owner have been mailed in, we will use the Fantasy Draft Order Generator tool. It acts like an automatic lottery, and it sends an email out to all owners with the randomly generated draft order. However, the order that it generates will simply be the order that we use to pick from the KDS list.

3RR: 3RR Stands for 3rd Round Reversal, and it allows the team who picks last in Round 1 to pick first in BOTH Round 2 and Round 3. In a normal snake draft, the team who picks #1 in Round 1 also gets to pick #1 in Round 3. When using 3RR, the order the 3rd Round gets REVERSED, hence the name. So for example, in this 15-team league that uses 3RR, the team that lands the #1 overall pick will also get the #30 pick (last pick in 2nd round) and the #45 pick (last pick in 3rd round). After the 3rd round, the snake draft continues in normal alternating fashion. This is done to level the playing field as much as possible, because players like Chris Paul and LeBron James are so dominant that their owners get an immediate advantage over the rest of the league. By implementing 3RR (along with KDS), the talent becomes more balanced.

5. League Manager and Position Eligibility

League Manager: We will use ESPN for our league manager service. Since we aren’t using their draft software because they don’t offer 3RR, results from our drafts done on Mock Draft Central will have to be inputted manually via the ESPN commish service.

Position Eligibility: We will use ESPN’s list for all position eligibility matters. Before our drafts take place on Mock Draft Central, MDC will make sure that every player is listed at his correct position according to ESPN.

6. Team Rosters

Active vs. Bench: AT ALL TIMES, each team must have 12 active players and 0 bench players. So all teams will consist ONLY of active players, and we will not allow for bench or reserve players.

Roster Requirements: AT ALL TIMES, each team must have 4 guards, 4 forwards, 2 centers, and 2 utility (any position) players according to ESPN’s eligibility lists. By not enforcing specific positions (PG, SG, SF, PF, C), owners are allowed more flexibility on draft day.

Player Pool: With 15 teams drafting 12 rounds, that equals 180 players being drafted. While this is a somewhat deep league, there will still be lots of talented players who go undrafted. Some examples of players who may have undrafted a year ago include:

Mario Chalmers
Russell Westbrook
DJ Augustin
Jarrett Jack
Delonte West
Roger Mason
Eric Gordon
Anthony Morrow
Kelenna Azubuike
Trevor Ariza
Grant Hill
Paul Millsap
Jason Thompson
Antonio McDyess
Ronny Turiaf
Chris Andersen
Spencer Hawes

So you know that there’s going to be some solid players who go undrafted.

7. Scoring System = 9-cat Roto

Categories: We are using the “standard” 9 categories: Points, Rebounds, Assists, Steals, Blocks, Threes, Turnovers, FG%, and FT%.

Scoring: We are using Rotisserie scoring, or Roto for short. In each of the 9 categories, all 15 teams will be ranked from 1st to worst. In each category, 1st place will receive 15 points, 2nd place will receive 14 points, 3rd place will receive 13 points, and on down the line. The winner will be the team who has the most total points at the end of the NBA regular season.

8. Unique Transaction Rules

No Trading: To ensure a fair and level playing field, trades will not be allowed in the DMC leagues. The goal of the Draft Masters Challenge is to test your drafting skills, not your trading skills. I support the use of trading when you’re in a keeper league with friends and no money at stake, but this style of league is a little different.

Only 3 Add/Drops per Team: You read that correctly. In the Draft Masters Challenge, each team only gets 3 free agent acquisitions for the ENTIRE SEASON. By implementing this rule, your drafting skills are really put to the test, and the total time spent managing your squad is kept to a minimum. By giving each team 3 player pickups, owners will still be able to overcome 1 or 2 major injuries if they use their transactions wisely.

No Sloppy Seconds: In the DMC, once a player is dropped from a team, none of the other owners can pick up said player. For example, if I draft Kobe Bryant and he suffers a serious injury during the first week of the season, I may use 1 of my 3 transactions to drop Kobe and replace him with someone else. Once I’ve dropped Kobe, NONE of the other teams are allowed to pick him up. But if he miraculously returns the next week and I want to pick him back up, then that would be allowed since I was the original owner (but the move would still count as a separate transaction). To make sure no one breaks the “No Sloppy Seconds” rule, a list of dropped players will be updated and kept on the league’s home page all season long.

9. The RotoE Challenge

To other Fantasy Experts and Notable NBA Writers: I would like to create a “special” Draft Masters Challenge league that ONLY features well-known fantasy experts/websites, or notable advanced stat guys or basketball writers. Considering how many of them are out there, I’m hopeful that I can find 14 of them to form one of the most competitive leagues around. As part of the RotoE Challenge, I am willing to TRIPLE my entry fee if we can complete a full 15-team league that features only fantasy experts and well-known writers.

To all other Die-Hard Fantasy Hoops Players: Since I’m not sure if other fantasy sites and NBA writers are going to be up to the challenge, I urge everyone else to sign up and play as well. If you are a RotoE Gold Subscriber, then you might get the chance to turn nothing into $1,500!

10. Entry Fees

For Most People: The entry fee for the 2009-2010 Draft Masters Challenge is $150 per team. This is low enough to generate interest, but high enough to create solid prizes and scare off the pretenders.

For RotoE: If 14 of my fellow fantasy sites and basketball writers are up to the challenge, then I will triple my entry fee for that league, making it $450.

For Lucky Gold Subscribers: For every DMC league that I play in against my readers/subscribers/followers, I will choose 2 lucky Gold Subscribers and allow them to play for FREE. In other words, I will cover their $150 entry fee, meaning that I will contribute $450 into the pot for every DMC league that I play in.

Entry Fee Due Date: To finalize everything beforehand, all entry fees will be due by Friday, October 23rd.

11. Other Fees

LeagueSafe: For security purposes, fast end of season payouts, and to ensure that all owners pay their entry fees in a timely manner, we will be using LeagueSafe.com to collect and store all league funds. When making deposits via credit card, LeagueSafe takes a 3% cut from every deposit. This comes out to $4.50 per team, or $67.50 per league. However, if everyone pays via e-check (bank account), then all deposits are free. If a league decides to go the credit card route, then all LeagueSafe fees will be taken out of the 1st place winner’s prize.

MockDraftCentral: Since MDC will have to create “special” leagues for us that use 3rd Round Reversal and built-in ESPN positions, their service won’t be free. However, to show that I’m organizing these leagues simply because I love fantasy hoops and not because I’m trying to make money, I am covering 100% of the costs to use MockDraftCentral.

12. Prize Payouts

For regular “reader” leagues, the total pot will be $2,250, so the breakdown will be as follows:
1st place = $1,500 (10x entry fee) – LeagueSafe fees (if applicable)
2nd place = $600 (4x entry fee)
3rd place = $150 (money back)

For the special “fantasy experts and notable writers” league, the total pot will be $2,550, so the breakdown will be as follows:
1st place = $1,500 (10x entry fee) – LeagueSafe fees (if applicable)
2nd place = $600 (4x entry fee)
3rd place = $300 (2x entry fee)
1st place at All-Star break = $150 (money back)

Conclusion

The Draft Masters Challenge leagues were created to be fun, unique, and competitive leagues that focus on the most important day of the fantasy season: draft day. Since many of us are already in several leagues, the idea behind the DMC is to keep managing at a minimum. That being said, strategy is still extremely important, and you will want to use your 3 transactions wisely. While a major injury is likely to strike most teams, this format still allows for owners to overcome that.

With solid league prizes at stake, the DMC should attract a lot of the most skiled, confident, and die-hard fantasy basketball players in the world. I intend to create a wide variety of leagues in the future (different scoring systems, different entry fee levels, etc.), but this year, I’m going to focus on the Draft Masters Challenge. I hope that you’ll join me for some fun and friendly competition this season. If you’re interested in signing up, or if you have any questions about the league format, simply add a comment below and I will respond as soon as I can. Thank you.

Eric Wong AKA Evil E
www.RotoEvil.com

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The first few players that you select on draft day are extremely important, because they are going to be the cornerstones of your fantasy team. You want your top players to not only put up excellent stats, but to be very reliable and COMPLEMENTARY as well. Of course, this means different things for Head-to-Head and Roto leagues. In H2H leagues, you want to focus on building up your strengths first, and then improving your weaknesses second. In Roto leagues, you usually want to focus on improving your weaknesses first.

To build a winning foundation for your fantasy squad, you must first figure out who your 1st round targets are. This is why determining the draft order ahead of time can be very useful. If you know what pick you have in advance, then you figure out which top guys may be available to you, and thus, you can narrow down your choices not only for round 1, but for rounds 2 thru 4 as well.

So in this exclusive article, Tom Lorenzo and I examine every potential 1st round candidate (i.e. the Top 15 guys), breaking down his statistical strengths and weaknesses. For BOTH Head-to-Head and Roto leagues, we have recommended 4 or 5 players to consider drafting in rounds 2-4 to team up with each top pick. By suggesting the best possible Cornerstone Combos for each top draft pick, you can fine-tune your early round strategy and build a rock solid foundation for your fantasy team.

In this FREE preview, we take a look at a guy who has been a Top 10 fantasy player for 9 years running…

Dirk Nowitzki

For the past decade, Dirk has been one of the most reliable fantasy players around. He consistently shoots around 48% FG and 88% FT, and he’ll go down in history as one of the greatest shooting big men ever. He’ll likely get fewer shots this season, but he’s still an elite scorer who turns the ball over much less others. He’s also a solid source of boards & blocks, and an above average source of assists and threes for his position. -EW

For H2H leagues:

You’ve really gotta maximize the percentages with Dirk, and I suggest going for a “finesse big man” team, just like the man himself. So draft a couple of quality bigs to strengthen your boards, blocks, and FG% (to beat up on the small ball teams), but also load up on point guards for assists, treys, and FT% (to beat the power big ball teams). In 9-cat leagues, try to preserve Dirk’s low-turnover strength as well. -EW

Mid 2nd / Mid 3rd round -
If Jose Calderon falls to you in the 2nd round, don’t hesitate to take the efficient stud point guard. He doesn’t get to the free throw line often, but he hardly misses when he does. The Spaniard is a career 49.9% shooter from the floor as well and a HUGE boost in assists. You also have to like the solid treys, decent steals, and low turnovers that he adds to Dirk. -TL

Consider adding David West in round 3. He’s a solid shooter from the floor, but his strength is in his superb touch from the line. Rebounds, FG%, FT%, points, and low turnovers is what you’ll get from West, making him a fine addition to Dirk. You’d like to see him more active on the defensive side of the ball, but he’s a great addition elsewhere. -TL

Mid 4th / Mid 5th round -
If you miss out on West, then target LaMarcus Aldridge in round 4. The talented young Blazer averaged 19.1 points and 8.6 boards after the All-Star break, and just like Dirk, he has the potential to shoot over 50% FG and 80% FT. While Dirk’s stats may be starting to decline, LaMarcus is on the way up. -EW

Ray Allen has long been known as the guard version of Dirk Nowitzki. He’s a stellar three-point shooter and is tremendous from the free throw line. Plus, since joining the Celtics, Allen’s turnovers have dropped significantly. Running Allen out with Dirk eases the drop-off that Dirk has seen in his three-point shooting over the past three seasons. -TL

If you missed out on Calderon and still need a PG, then consider Mo Williams in round 5. The man known as “Fog Raw” will further strengthen your points, 3’s, and FT%, and his assists should go up now that Shaq is in town. He also shot 46.7% from the field last season, so he won’t hurt your FG% as much as other point guards. -EW

For Roto leagues:

Dirk immediately gives you a sound foundation in FG% and FT%, but he’s pretty weak in steals and blocks. So look for an elite point guard (to improve your assists, steals, and threes) and a big-time shot-blocker early. If you team him up with a center who is also a great (or at least solid) free throw shooter, then you should be able to put yourself head and shoulders above the competition in that category. -EW

Mid 2nd / Mid 3rd round -
Both Jason Kidd and Chauncey Billups provide the steals, assists, and threes that team up nicely with Dirk. The downside is that neither shoots the ball well from the floor. The other guy to look at, then, is his old buddy Steve Nash. He’ll shoot threes, provide a ton of assists, add modestly to Dirk’s FT%, and shoot at a high-rate from the floor. His defensive numbers aren’t nearly as good as Kidd and Billups tend to post, but you can find those steals elsewhere without killing Dirk’s FG%. -TL

There was a time when adding an efficient and intense big like Kevin Garnett to a finesse 7-footer like dirk Nowitzki was a huge coup. This season, KG will have to shake the rust off after missing the final two months of ‘08-09, but when healthy, he’s a big man that has shot over 50% from the floor and 80% from the free throw line in four of the last five seasons. He’s also a plus-rebounder, a very solid shot blocker, and a big help in turnover leagues. He could fall to you in round 3 due to last season’s injury woes, in which case he’d be a nice value pick. -TL

Josh Smith is a top-tier shot blocker to look at in the 3rd round. He can block a ton of shots while at the same time grabbing more than a steal per game and putting up a very solid showing in FG%. He shot poorly from the free throw line in ‘08-09, but keep in mind that it was a career-low for J-Smoov. Either way, if you draft Smith here, you’ll need to compensate for his free throws later on. -TL

Mid 4th / Mid 5th round -
Rajon Rondo helps make up for the steals and assists that Dirk lacks. He’s the perfect guy here in the 4th round if you opted to go big in the 2nd or 3rd rounds. Rondo is an efficient shooter from the floor, but hurts the FT% numbers that Dirk gives you and is not helpful in threes. Still, he’s an excellent Roto complement to the sweet-shooting 7-footer. -EW

In round 5, look at a guy like Andrea Bargnani to help out with his threes, blocks, and solid shooting percentages. His post-All-Star break numbers were spectacular, and since he doesn’t turn 24 until the day before the season starts, he’ll continue to get better. -TL

I hope you enjoyed this free Draft Guide preview. RotoEvil Silver and Gold subscribers receive “Cornerstone Combo” suggestions for EVERY 1st round candidate.

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Before we get to all the juicy details, I’d like to thank everyone who has been a RotoEvil reader, fan, or supporter over the past couple of years. When I started doing this, I had no idea what kind of possibilities existed or how to make a website or anything like that. But it had gotten to the point where I no longer listened to what other “fantasy experts” were saying, because I fully trusted my own opinion.

I felt I could deliver more in-depth and on-point fantasy hoops analysis than anyone else out there, so I decided to bring my hoops-watching, deep-thinking , number-crunching, keyboard-typing little “talent” or whatever you want to call it to the people.

And I have to some extent, but now it’s time to take it to the next level.

So here’s what you can expect for the 2009-2010 NBA season…

A new special contributor!

I’m pleased to introduce Mr. Tom Lorenzo to you all. Tom has joined the RotoEvil team to be a special contributing writer, and his resume is extensive: he’s the current Senior Basketball Editor for RotoExperts.com, a former NBA columnist for The Talented Mr. Roto, and his articles have been syndicated on both NBA.com and Yahoo! Sports. He’s also the co-host of a weekly podcast called the “RotoRadio: Hoops Edition,” which can be heard on iTunes and BlogTalkRadio.com starting next week. Some of his past guests include former NBA player Doug Christie (a 45 minute interview no less!), NBA TV’s Rick Kamla, Yahoo!’s Adrian Wojnarowski, and yes, yours truly. I was a guest on Tom’s show twice last season and had a lot of fun. He’s a cool dude, he loves fantasy hoops, he analyzes players as thoroughly as I do, and I enjoyed his show so much that I’ve decided to start my own.

Yes, there’s going to be a ROTOEVIL PODCAST this season!!

I’m not sure when it will debut, but once I get it going, it will air every week during the regular season, and hopefully far beyond. I’m really excited about this announcement, and I hope that you are too. The podcast will be totally FREE, so you should all check it out at some point or another. Tom’s RotoRadio show airs on Monday nights, so I’ve decided to air mine on either Thursdays or Fridays. More details to come…

Subscribers Only Subdomain!!!

RotoEvil.com will continue to live on, but the new site to bookmark is:

http://subscribers.rotoevil.com/

Take a quick peek and I think you’ll realize why I’m so happy about it. I set out to create something with a similar vibe to RotoEvil.com, but I wanted it to be EASIER for users to navigate and access information. I believe I’ve accomplished this, while adding several improvements in the process. After subscribing, you’ll be taken to a registration page where you can choose a username and password. To access the subscribers only site, you then just login using the box in the upper right corner. Quite simply, the new subscribers site is going to kick ass, but you’ll need a subscription to access it.

BRONZE subscription: $9.95

With a Bronze membership, you get ALL of the Spreadsheet Downloads. These include:

-Stat Projections for 330 players

We’re going 330 players deep this year, and the projections have been expanded to include the following 21 categories:

Games Played
Minutes Played
Field Goals Made
Field Goals Attempted
Field Goal Percentage
3-Pointers Made
3-Pointers Attempted
3-Point Percentage
Free Throws Made
Free Throws Attempted
Free Throw Percentage
Points Scored
Offensive Rebounds
Defensive Rebounds
Total Rebounds
Assists
Steals
Blocks
Turnovers
Ast/To Ratio
Personal Fouls

These Stat Projections can be accessed as a downloadable spreadsheet for Microsoft Excel (for those who don’t have Excel, a similar version will be accessible via Google spreadsheets). The spreadsheet is easily sortable, so with the click of a button, you can see who the projected league leaders are in every single category!

Why should you trust RotoE’s projections over your own or anyone else’s? Well, others may rely on some kind of formula that uses previous data so they can let their computer program spit the projections out and do all the work for them. While I see the upside in that (many extra hours of sleep for me), I don’t trust that method one bit. Instead, I examine every player (and his team situation) on a case-by-case basis and use up to FOUR different sources for various statistics (I probably utilize my iMac calculator widget over 100 times per day). When a player’s stats go either up or down, the REASONS for doing so are usually beyond the scope of what a computer can comprehend. Considering that my stats have helped me win quite a bit of money, you should not only feel confident in the projections themselves, but in the RotoEvil Ratings that they produce as well.

-Sortable Draft Tracker Tool for Excel

The Sortable Draft Tracker Tool (SDTT) is another downloadable spreadsheet for Microsoft Excel. It will be available in many different formats: standard 8-cat, standard 9-cat, 9-cat with ast/to ratio instead of turnovers, 9-cat with free throws made instead of FT%, etc. (contact me if your scoring format is unique). In one tab, it lists all relevant players and their projected RotoEvil Ratings for each category. Next to each players name, there are also 3 separate columns for Yahoo! position, ESPN position, and CBS position, so you’ll know exactly what position(s) each player qualifies at.

The RotoEvil Rating system places a value of up to 10 points for all of the fantasy scoring categories. They are based on several years of current and past data, and they QUICKLY show you a player’s strengths and weaknesses relative to the rest of the players remaining. That last part is key, because the Draft Tracker Tool lets you remove players as they get picked. This allows you to hide players who have been drafted and only compare stats between the top players remaining! Just by itself, the Sortable Draft Tracker Tool is a must-use application on draft day.

However, this tool takes it one step further by adding a separate worksheet to analyze your team WHILE you draft (not after). By monitoring your ratings in each category after every player that you pick, you are able to quickly see what stats you need to target next. Many people loved this tool last year, and you will definitely draft a stronger fantasy team if you use it.

-Cheatsheet & Positional Tiers

THIS is the spreadsheet that you want to print out. The Cheatsheet lists the Top 150 overall players all on 1 page, while the Positional Tiers breaks down every position into 12 different tiers and prints them out on 2 pages. What I recommend on draft day is using the Sortable Draft Tracker Tool on your computer, but also having the Positional Tiers printed out in front of you. This saves valuable monitor space for your computer, and by crossing out each player’s name manually, it allows you to keep an extra-close eye on who the top players left at each position are.

-Weekly Schedule Grid

Of course, you’ll also get a weekly schedule so you can view the number of games played per week and monitor your players accordingly.

-Preseason Stat Updates

All throughout October, we will update the Stat Projections, RotoEvil Ratings, Cheatsheet, and Tiers, and you will have access to all of the updates. However, the ANALYSIS that goes with the preseason updates will only be available to Silver subscribers.

SILVER subscription: $15.95

A Silver subscription includes everything detailed in the Bronze subscription (Stat Projections for 330 Players, Sortable Draft Tracker Tool, Cheatsheet & Positional Tiers, Weekly Schedule Grid, Preseason Stat Updates), PLUS all of RotoEvil’s in-depth written analysis that you’ve come to know and love.

While statistics are the basis of fantasy sports, you need more than just numbers to win. To win leagues CONSISTENTLY, you need to know what to MAKE of those numbers and what to DO with them, and that’s where the Silver subscription’s superb analysis comes into play. This is also where RotoEvil starts to run away from the competition, thanks to the following in-depth articles and on-point analysis that has proven to be successful for those who utilize it:

-30 Team Previews

Chances are, you’ve already seen some of the Team Previews that were posted for free. Well, there’s a lot more where that came from! Silver Subscribers get access to every Team Preview, so you better start reading now, because those articles are loaded with useful information. Don’t have the time to sit in front of your computer to read? No problem, because you can now easily PRINT every single article on RotoEvil.com. To get a good grasp of what each player is going to do in the upcoming season, you must first be aware of every team’s situation, and understand each player’s role on that team. From roster changes to rotational analysis to style of play, the in-depth Team Previews give you the framework of knowledge that you need to understand what’s likely to happen in the upcoming season.

-50 PLAYERS TO TARGET (overview)

I firmly believe that the most important key to winning fantasy leagues is drafting breakout, career year, and bounceback players. These are usually the best “value picks” in your draft, and they allow you to maximize your team’s talent level and statistics. Many sites like to cover their asses by suggesting more than a hundred different players who “COULD be a sleeper” or “COULD have breakout a season,” but that’s not we operate at RotoEvil. Instead, I focus on a select group of players who are primed to have excellent seasons for a variety of reasons. This year’s list of 50 Players to Target includes the following groups:

-Young Breakout Stars (24 targets)

Since the statistics of young players are usually limited in their first few years, they are the guys who are most likely to have breakout seasons. However, they are also the hardest players to predict. Since each case is different, I feel it’s important to categorize them even further. For 2009-10, we have narrowed this list down to 6 Proven Starters who are hungry for more, 8 First Time Starters who are ready to make the jump, 6 Key Reserves who are ready for a bigger role, and 4 True Sleepers who will be off everyone else’s radar. When drafting young players, focus on these guys first and foremost.

-Career Year Candidates (12 targets)

Last year, RotoEvil predicted that Troy Murphy, David Lee, and Nene Hilario (among others) were going to have “Career Years.” In your ‘08 draft, you probably could have picked Lee in round 8, Murphy in round 9, and Nene in round 10. This season, all 3 big men are likely Top 50 picks, with Murphy and Lee potentially going in the Top 25. Obviously, all of those guys delivered the “Career Years” that I was expecting, and RotoEvil customers were rewarded by their play (47% drafted Lee, 34% drafted Nene, and 26% drafted Murphy). Needless to say, you don’t win leagues by drafting Troy Murphy in round 2 AFTER he has his career year. You consistently win leagues by picking guys BEFORE they have their best seasons ever. In this article, I’ve narrowed down my Top 12 candidates.

-Bounce Back Ballers (14 targets)

These are the guys who are going to fall further than they should on draft day because they had disappointing ‘08-09 seasons. By analyzing what went wrong last year and what will be different in the upcoming season, we can target the very best candidates to have Bounce Back seasons. When they deliver the goods, they’ll end up being some of the best value picks from your draft.

-STRATEGY ARTICLES (overview)

While accurate stat projections and in-depth analysis are essential elements to winning fantasy leagues, utilizing sound strategies is also very important. In these articles, we break down everything you need to know to form the proper strategy.

-Cornerstone Combos

Due to popular demand, this is the strategy article that we spent the most time on. The first few players that you select on draft day are extremely important, because they are going to be the cornerstones of your fantasy team. You want them to not only put up excellent stats, but to be very reliable and COMPLEMENTARY as well. Depending on a player’s strengths and weaknesses, this usually requires DIFFERENT strategies for H2H and Roto leagues.

So in this exclusive article, Tom Lorenzo and I examine every potential 1st round candidate (i.e. the Top 15 guys), breaking down his statistical strengths and weaknesses. For BOTH Head-to-Head and Roto leagues, we have recommended 4 or 5 players to consider drafting in rounds 2-4 to team up with each top pick. So for Dwyane Wade, the 4 players that we recommend teaming up with him for Head-to-Head leagues is totally different than the 4 players we recommend teaming up with him for Roto leagues. That’s because your strategy should be different depending on your league’s scoring format and what # pick you have. By suggesting the best possible Cornerstone Combos for each top draft pick, you can fine-tune your early round strategy and build a rock solid foundation for your fantasy team.

-The Effect of Coaching Changes

In this RotoEvil exclusive, Tom Lorenzo breaks down all of the new head coaches, including ones who took over during the middle of last season. Since head coaches determine the team’s style of play and which players get to do what, they have a significant impact on the fantasy values of everyone involved. If you disagree, then just look at what Mike D’Antoni did to the fantasy values of David Lee and Nate Robinson last season. In last year’s Knicks Team Preview, you’ll see that I said: “Don’t Sleep on: All of the Knicks.” That’s because the impact of D’Antoni’s “7 Seconds or Less” offense was easy to predict. This year, the Effect of Coaching Changes won’t be quite as obvious, so Tom has dug even deeper to give you everything you need to know about the new head coaches.

-Contract Year Players

It’s no secret that some players try harder in their contract years, so this article examines all of the players who will potentially be free agents in 2010. Next summer is still a long ways away, but the coveted free agent class may still have an impact on what happens this season.

-Punting a Category

Especially for Head-to-Head leagues (and sometimes for Roto leagues), it’s useful to punt a category. So this article examines WHY and WHEN you should decide to punt a category, WHO you should draft for punting a particular category, and HOW to build the strongest fantast team by employing this strategy. Time permitting, we will also include special spreadsheets and rankings that take this strategy a step further.

-Trading Ethics & Strategy

I don’t know a single person who makes more fantasy hoops trades than RotoEvil regular Catman. Not only is he continuously wheeling and deaing, but he also sticks to a code of ethics, and more often than not, the trades that he makes improve his team. So it only made sense to ask him to contribute a special article on trading. He obliged, and now this useful article can be accessed by both Silver and Gold subscribers.

-MORE!!! (overview)

Before we get to the coveted Gold Subscription, let’s take a look at even MORE articles that Silver subscribers will have access to:

-Players to Avoid

Knowing which players to target is vital, but knowing which players to avoid is also very important. For a few teams around the league, they have messy situations that I recommend avoiding completely. In this article, you’ll know who to stay away from on draft day.

-Special Club Members

In these RotoEvil exclusives, we examine two special groups of players. In the “1+ Block, 77% FT club,” we look at the guys who can block shots without hurting your team’s FT%. In the “1+ Three, 47% FG club,” we look at the guys who can drain threes without hurting your team’s FG%. Needless to say, these club members happen to be very valuable fantasy players year in and year out. Not only do we list all of the players who made the club last year and in previous years, but we also suggest the most likely candidates to join the club in the upcoming season.

-Preseason Questions & Updates

During the month of October, it’s important to know what players and situations you should be focusing on. By providing a list of the most important questions heading into preseason, you’ll know exactly what to watch out for. As stat projections and player ratings get adjusted during the preseason, you’ll also get the important analysis that explains why these changes are being made.

-Draft Day Tips

Draft Day is always a lot of fun, but you must be well-prepared and focused on the matter at hand: drafting a dominant fantasy team so that you can win your league. These Draft Day Tips will help you stay confident and focused, even if you’re in a league with me.

and now…

GOLD subscription: $24.95

Everything included in the Silver membership, plus the brand new In-Season Analysis package, and a lot, lot more…

-No Banner Ads?

I don’t want any distracting advertisements bothering you as you’re trying to read/download the content, so for the next couple of months, there will be no ads for subscribers. You heard that right: the Subscribers section will be AD-FREE until the season starts! No flashing, moving, or talking banner ads to annoy you. And if there are 500 Gold subscribers by opening night, then I’ll keep subscribers.rotoevil.com ad-free for the ENTIRE SEASON.

-Access to the Gold Subscribers-Only Forum

The old message board has been taken down and replaced by one that will be far superior. It will load “inside” of the Subscribers site, and every single article will be linked to a corresponding discussion thread inside the forums. I believe in-depth discussions will go a lot smoother this way, and it will be extremely easy to bounce from article to forum back to article. Last year I gave all customers access to the VIP Forum, and while only a hardcore group of people used it, I believe they found to it be very beneficial. This is where I give shout outs to:

catman2051, d2bnz, Risk_ay, zeelow, Kicking Rocks, rbaej, John L, and guru

Those guys were all very active members of the VIP Forum last season. There weren’t a lot of big posters in there, but those guys held it down and dropped some excellent analysis of their own. They brought up solid points, raised interesting questions, helped each other out, and proved that they were knowledgeable, good people. One problem with free forums is that they attract a LOT more people, but a lot of those extra people don’t always have interesting or useful things to say. They come and go and often do more harm than good. As an independent person in general, I try to avoid large message boards. But for last year’s VIP Forum, there was no quality control needed. Those guys were really active in year one, so I give them some props.

Of course, I was still the top poster last year (I’ll answer as many questions as I can), but I’m expecting some of those guys to challenge me in quality posts this season, and I’m DEFINITELY expecting a lot more of you to join us. Ultimately, I expect the RotoE forums to attract the most die-hard fantasy hoops players from all around the globe. In due time, I believe the VIP forums will even become more popular than either the subscriber site or the main site, and this aspect alone might be worth the upgrade. But we’re just getting started. Now let’s introduce…

The IN-SEASON ANALYSIS package, featuring:

-Tri-Weekly Email Newsletter Updates!

Gold subscribers will receive 3 email newsletters sent directly to their inbox every single week during the NBA regular season. Nearly every other day, you’ll receive exclusive emails featuring EVERYTHING you need to know to manage your fantasy hoops teams. We’ll break down all the important injuries, rotational changes, and the latest NBA news, as well as analyzing boxscores, making player pickup recommendations, answering reader mailbag questions, and much more.

Basically, we’ll do all of the legwork for you, so you can stay one or two steps ahead of your opponents and take home that championship. No longer will you have to worry about not looking at boxscores or reading player news every day, because we’ll have you covered. No longer will you have to wait an entire week for my pickup suggestions, because I’m going to send them to you pretty much every other day for the entire season. If you’ve received our email newsletter before, then you know how they look very professional, and are designed so they WON’T go straight into your SPAM box (i.e. I’m not being cheap by using a gmail account or Microsoft Outlook to mass email people).

-Rest of Season Rankings & Recommended Trade Targets

At least once a month, a new set of Player Rankings will come out. These rankings will be based on projected rest of season production, so all possible elements (# of games remaining, nagging injuries, rotational changes, team performance, etc.) will be factored in, so you know which players have the most value MOVING FORWARD. Included in each rankings update, I will recommend several players for you to “buy low” and “sell high,” so you know who to target in trades. By utilizing this feature, I’m predicting that Gold members will make trades that BENEFIT them 90% of the time.

-Excellent Email Support

In the past, I attempted to answer as many emails as I could. However, that’s becoming increasingly harder to do, so from now on, I can only guarantee responses to RotoEvil Gold subscribers.

-Continued Coverage thru August 2010

When the NBA regular season ends, your coverage won’t. Gold Subscribers will continue to receive exclusive access to special features such as: Keeper Rankings, NBA Draft analysis, Free Agent & Trade analysis, and more. This will continue until the end of August, at which point, I’m guessing most of you will renew your subscription.

-Future Tools, Future Content, and more…

I’m quite confident that Gold subscribers are going to receive simply the best fantasy basketball analysis available, but that doesn’t mean I’m willing to rest on my laurels. If I plan on being the best in this business, then you better believe that I’m continually looking to improve every aspect of my game. For those of you who have been around since day one, I’m sure you’ve noticed major improvements from 2007 to 2008 to 2009, and this progression won’t stop. We’ll continue to work on additions and enhancements, and any future improvements will be granted to Gold subscribers first and foremost.

There’s also the probability that more and more of the content that is currently being published for free will start to be for Gold Subscribers only. While the “free” side of RotoEvil won’t be ignored completely, it will be placed lower on the totem pole, because I want Gold members to receive as much bang for their buck as they can. At $24.95, I believe a Gold Subscription is a tremendous value for any serious hoops fan, especially if you can utilize it to win YOURSELF a lot of money from playing fantasy hoops.

-Chance to win a FREE entry into RotoE’s Draft Masters Challenge (a $150 value!)

What is the Draft Masters Challenge? Well, here’s what I can tell you right now. There will be at least 2 separate leagues of up to 16 teams.

League #1 will be for fellow fantasy experts, advanced stat guys, and notable basketball writers. I will invite as many of these people as I can, and hopefully some big names will step up. The entry fee for them will be $150 each. The entry fee for ME will be $450, or 3 times as much. If 15 others join me, that will create a total pot of $2,700 ($450 from RotoE). The winner would then take home $1,500 (10x entry fee), 2nd place would get $600 (4x entry fee), 3rd place would get $300 (2x entry fee), and there would be other prizes as well. So for me to make any profit at all, I would have to finish in 1st or 2nd place.

League #2 will be for Gold Subscribers only. The entry fee for this league will also be $150. However, instead of me putting in $450, I’m going to put in the regular entry fee of $150 for myself, and instead pay for 3 lucky Gold Subscribers to receive a FREE entry into the league! If this league also has 16 total owners, then the total pot is $2,400 ($600 from RotoE). Again, the winner would then take home $1,500 (10x entry fee), 2nd place would get $600 (4x entry fee), and 3rd place would get $300 (2x entry fee). So for me to even BREAK EVEN, I would have to finish in 2nd place.

So at least 3 Gold Subscribers will get a chance to compete against myself and possibly parlay a free entry into $1,500. Not bad if you ask me.

To level the playing field as much as possible, we will use both 3rd Round Reversal (3RR) and Kentucky Derby Style (KDS) draft selection (these rules have been adopted from the National Fantasy Basketball Championship, and are common to many fantasy football leagues). 3RR is just like a normal snake draft, except the 3rd round reverses order. So the person picking last in round 1 gets to pick first in both round 2 AND round 3, while the person with the #1 overall pick has to draft last in both rounds 2 and 3. This gives the teams picking at the end of round 1 a much better shot of competing against the squads led by CP3 and LeBron. KDS builds on 3RR by allowing each competitor to choose his draft order of preference. Thus, you are much more likely to end up where you want in a KDS-style draft system. Anyway, more details on the draft and scoring system will be coming shortly, but I’m really excited about the Draft Masters Challenge, and can’t wait to take on some of you lucky (or shall I say unlucky) readers.

RotoEvil Guarantees:

I guarantee that the contents of this year’s Draft Guide will blow away last year’s.
Based on the exit survey, 53% of last year’s customers were “Very Satisfied,” while the other 47% were at least “Satisfied.”

I guarantee that I will continue to strive to bring you the very best fantasy basketball analysis available.
I won’t say my slogan jokingly, because I honestly believe that to be true. I’m confident that a Gold subscription to subscribers.RotoEvil.com is going to be superior to everything else out there. Of course, you’ll have to judge for yourself, so I don’t mind if you check out other websites. Some might have snazzier ads, better technology, more writers, or lower prices, but I doubt you’ll find the same level of useful insight and sound analysis that you’re going to find here.

Right now I’m going to give some props to footballguys.com.

I had heard about this site for awhile, but I didn’t check it out until last month. What I saw was VERY impressive. Those guys are doing fantasy sports analysis RIGHT, so I commend them for that. I appreciate what they’ve established, and now I intend for RotoEvil.com to become the NBA equivalent of that. It’s highly unlikely that fantasy basketball will ever become as BIG as fantasy football (americano), but I do expect that gigantic gap to close a bit over the next few years, and I expect to stay on top in this industry.

I guarantee that at least 66% (2 out of 3) of my GOLD Subscribers will win at LEAST one league this season.
Based on last year’s exit survey, this figure was 62% last season. This is what it’s all about, right? You’re trying to be the champion of your fantasy league. While it does take a little bit of luck to end up in 1st place, I believe the split is around 90% skill/10% luck, as opposed to 50/50 or even worse. So I’m expecting more than two-thirds of you to win a league.

I guarantee that at least 88% (nearly 9 out of 10) of my GOLD Subscribers will finish “in the money” (Top 3).
Based on the exit survey, this figure was 82% last year. In a 12 team league, 3rd place puts you in the 75th percentile. If you think about it, having 75% finish in the 75th percentile would be a very solid success rate. But 75% doesn’t satisfy me, and neither does 82%. I want 9 out of 10 of you to finish in the money, and I’m willing to place a guarantee on that.

I guarantee that at least 60% of my GOLD Subscribers (6 out of 10) will PROFIT over $100 this fantasy hoops season.
Based on the exit survey, 46% profited over $100 last year, but 30% didn’t play for any money! I’ve urged my readers to play for a cash reward before, and several of you have already told me that you’re going to step up this year to win that scrilla. If all of the above figures hold true, then you’ll wish you did. At the very least, you should be able to convince your fellow owners to throw in $10 a piece to create a $120 pot for a 12 team league. There were quite a few high rollers last year, as 17% of you profited over $500. If you’re spending even 1/20th the time that I do on this, you should reward yourself for putting in the time and effort.

Personally, my goal is to profit at least $4,000 every fantasy basketball season. Unlike the NFL, there aren’t a bunch of high-stakes contests to play in, so making that much is somewhat difficult, but I’ve done it in 3 of the past 5 years (who else has that kind of track record?). That’s a 60% success rate of reaching my earnings goal. Your own goal may be a little bit lower, but I’m certain that over 60% of YOU GUYS can make some decent money from this as well. And for you Gold Subscribers, I’ll be with you every step of the way.

I guarantee that less than 8% (less than 1 out of 10) of my GOLD Subscribers will finish in “the bottom half” of the standings.
Based on the exit survey, this figure was 12% last year. Not bad, but I’m going to get that down into the single digits this season. In fact, if you’re a Gold member, I can give you a satisfaction guarantee.

-Satisfaction Guarantee

If you purchase a Gold Subscription to RotoEvil.com, and you utilize all of the tools, target players, and strategy articles, then you qualify for a money-back guarantee. If for some reason you are not satisfied with the level of quality content, then simply contact me within 60 days of your purchase (include your league’s draft results to prove that you followed the draft guide). At the end of the season, if ANY of the previous guarantees do NOT come true, then I will refund your purchase.

So Now What???

*Please note that the content is only about 70% completed. The idea was to launch early so you guys can start reading NOW. The rest of the strategy articles and spreadsheet tools will come out in the next 7-10 days, so if you don’t draft until AFTER October 1st, then you have nothing to worry about, as all content will be accessible by then. If you have a draft before then and would like to purchase a subscription, please contact me with your league details and I will do my best to accommodate you.

Thanks for your interest in RotoEvil’s 2009-10 NBA Fantasy Draft Guide. Best of luck this season (if you don’t subscribe, you’re going to need it).

Sincerely,

Eric Wong AKA Evil E
Owner, RotoEvil.com

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For the upcoming NBA season, RotoEvil’s Draft Guide includes “50 Players to Target,” a new feature that will surely lead to numerous fantasy basketball championships. Some people like to say “sleepers” or value picks, but here is how I’m breaking my 50 down:

Young Breakout Stars (YBS) = 24 targets
Bounce Back Ballers (BBB) = 14 targets
Career Year Candidates (CYC) = 12 targets

When you add them up, that gives you 50 Players to Target on draft day. In an average league of 12 teams, if these 50 players are distributed evenly, that breaks down to 4.2 target players per team.

Needless to say, I recommend you get more. Not just 5 or 6, but 7 or 8 or 9! Now don’t draft all of these guys a round early to get as many of them as possible, but if the value is there and one of the targets fits your needs, then don’t hesitate to draft him. If you end up with 8 of my 50 Players to Target, and 6 or 7 of them deliver excellent seasons, then barring major injuries, you’re probably going to win your league. That’s because I see these players being difference-makers in the standings.

So for Part 1, let’s examine the Young Breakout Stars…

Last season, there were 165 players under the age of 25 who played in 10 or more NBA games. Of those 165, only 60 averaged 24+ minutes, and only 53 averaged 10+ points. So clearly, when it comes to young players in the NBA, only a select group can be relied upon for fantasy purposes.

Since young players are the hardest to predict and each case is different, I feel it’s important to categorize them even further. So I have broken my Young Breakout Stars down into 4 groups:

Proven Starters – Hungry for More = 6 targets

Guys who have proven to be legit NBA starters, but are hungry (and ready) for more.

First Time Starters – Making the Jump = 8 targets

Guys who haven’t started a full season before, but are now in position to play big minutes.

Key Reserves – Ready for a Bigger Role = 6 targets

Guys who deserve a chance to shine and will finally be getting it.

True Sleepers – Off Everyone Else’s Radar = 4 targets

REAL sleepers that no one else is mentioning. The ultimate “last round picks.”

By differentiating between those sets of players, it allows us to focus on where each player is at in his career. In last year’s free breakout article, RotoEvil gave you Charlie Villanueva and Trevor Ariza as likely breakout candidates. Both guys were essentially “First Time Starters – Making the Jump,” and I’d say they did fairly well.

Here’s what I said about Villanueva last September:

Like Rudy Gay, Villanueva is a long athletic forward who attended the University of Connecticut. However, despite being 2 years older than Gay, Charlie V. has yet to blossom in the NBA. He had a promising rookie season with Toronto, but he hasn’t lived up to expectations since being traded to Milwaukee for TJ Ford. His ‘06-07 season was derailed by injuries, but people expected him to bounce back in ‘07-08. Instead, he got inconsistent minutes, struggled with his shot, and averaged career-lows in minutes, points, steals, FG%, and 3P%. ‘08-09 will be a make or break season for Villanueva, and here are several reasons why he’ll take that leap forward.

For starters, he’ll be the starting power forward on opening night. Last year, the Bucks handed the starting gig over to rookie Yi Jianlian from the get-go, which surely hurt Charlie’s confidence. Yi was traded to New Jersey over the summer, and the Bucks replaced him by drafting the athletic Joe Alexander and signing veteran Malik Allen. However, Alexander is far from being a polished product and Allen has no upside and little offense to speak of, so Villanueva should have no problem getting 30+ minutes per game this season.

He actually averaged 30.3 mpg after the All-Star break, and put up a solid 15.1 points, 7.7 boards, .8 steals, .6 blocks, and 1.0 threes in 27 games. Those numbers are pretty good, but he shot just 42.7% FG during that span, which limited his fantasy value. The addition of Luke Ridnour and the presence of Ramon Sessions for an entire season at PG should help out Charlie V. quite a bit. Mo Williams was more of a scorer, but both Ridnour & Sessions are pass-first point guards. The 24-year old can run the floor well, and he’ll likely be rewarded more often this season. The addition of a proven scorer in Richard Jefferson should also open things up and put less pressure on him. As a result, I see his FG% climbing back up over 46% where it belongs. If Villanueva can pump up his steals, blocks, threes, and FG% like Gay did last season, then he could be one of the top breakout players in ‘08-09.

Charlie V. had a slow start, but he averaged an impressive 19.5 points, 7.0 rebounds, 2.2 assists, .76 steals, .74 blocks, and 1.6 threes on 47% FG, 38% 3P, and 83% FT shooting in just 30.5 minutes from January-March (42 games). He was rewarded with a 5-year, $35 million deal from Detroit. For my thoughts on Villanueva and the Pistons you’ll have to become a draft guide member, but I will gladly discuss Trevor Ariza right now.

And here’s what I said about Ariza last September:

There have been recent rumblings out of Los Angeles that Lamar Odom could come off the bench this season. If it happens, Trevor Ariza is going to start at small forward. It’s a move that makes a lot of sense, as Ariza is a much better defender at the “3″ spot and doesn’t need the ball in his hands all the time on offense. Bringing Odom off the bench allows the Lakers to use him as their #1 scorer on the 2nd unit, and a guy that they can go to when Kobe or Pau is resting. While this will surely hurt Odom’s fantasy value, it could give Ariza’s a huge boost.

After playing in 80 games as a 19-year old rookie for the Knicks, Trevor has been traded twice and hasn’t played more than 57 games in a season due to injuries. As a result, he hasn’t developed as quickly as other players, but the talent and athleticism is still there. Standing 6-8 with a 7-foot-2 wingspan, Ariza’s body is very similar to Rudy Gay’s. His vertical isn’t quite as good, but he’s also an explosive leaper who can throw it down in traffic. With Kobe, Gasol, and Bynum, the Lakers don’t need another player to feed the ball to in the their starting lineup. They need a slasher, and that’s exactly what Ariza is.

He uses his length and tenacity on defense to rack up steals, as evidenced by his career average of 1.9 steals per 36 minutes. He’s also a very good rebounder for his size, averaging 7+ boards per 36 minutes in each of the past 3 seasons. And since he takes high quality shots, his FG% has also been rock solid: 50.7% FG last year, 53.9% FG the year before. However, his major weakness is his outside shot. In the first 205 games of his NBA career, he made only 4 threes on 28 attempts (1 attempt every 135 minutes, 14.3% 3P). But surprisingly, he shot 5-15 from beyond the arc in just 24 games for the Lakers. Is this a sign for the future? Teams will likely sag off of him so he’ll get plenty of open looks, and if Phil Jackson encourages him to shoot and he has confidence in his outside shot, he could make a lot more threes this year. This would increase his fantasy value even further, making him an excellent late round pick with upside.

Ariza’s stats weren’t as eye-popping as The Hairless Wonder’s, but he DID average 1.7 steals and .7 threes in just 24.4 minutes in the regular season. He filled his role perfectly for Phil Jackson, and then exploded in the playoffs to average 11.3 points, 4.2 boards, 2.3 dimes, 1.6 steals, .4 blocks, 1.7 to’s, and 1.7 treys on 49.7% FG and 47.6% 3P shooting. Trevor also played excellent defense, showed off his superb athleticism, knocked down those open threes, and won a championship. He also won a $33 million dollar contract to move to Houston.

After turning 24 over the summer, Ariza is still a young man with all kinds of potential. That’s why he’s being mentioned AGAIN as a Young Breakout Star. A lot of others sites are probably hyping up Ariza as well, but I will try to do more than that here. I am going to give you all of his pros and cons, thoroughly analyze his situation, AND (for your added benefit) rate him based on his “upside” and “trust factor.”

PROS:

With Yao likely out for the season, and T-Mac likely out for a good chunk of the year, Ariza immediately goes from being a #4 guy to a #1/2 guy. Obviously, he’s going to get a lot more minutes and scoring opportunities in Houston than he did in L.A. The Rockets almost NEED him to fill up the stat sheet, so his points, threes, rebounds, and assists should soar as a result.

Now here is what ESPN’s analysis of Ariza says:

“He should post career-high numbers in every category, particularly in steals where he’ll undoubtedly be one of the league leaders.”

CONS:

Not so fast. After averaging a sweet 1.67 steals in 24.4 minutes last season, it’s understandable to want to project that out to 33-35 minutes and suggest that Ariza will average 2.25-2.5 steals per game. But that’s a bad idea, because the way he’s going to play D in Houston will be very different than the way he played in Staples.

With the extremely physical and mentally tough backcourt duo of Kobe and Fisher, and the extremely long and athletic frontcourt of Gasol, Odom, and Bynum, Ariza had plenty of help on defense last year. The Lakers put a lot of pressure on their opponents, and Ariza was superb at using his quickness and length to get into the passing lanes.

But can you guess how many steals Ron Artest averaged last year for the Rockets? Just 1.52 in 35.5 minutes! Before last season, Artest’s career-low in steals per 36 minutes was 1.91 (from his rookie year), and he had been over 2.00 up until ‘08-09. And that was WITH Yao Ming holding down the fort in the paint! Last year’s Houston team was very good defensively, but they forced just 12.3 turnovers per game. That was 3rd lowest in the league last season: well below the league average of 14.0, and WAY below the Lakers average of 15.5.

Yes, Ron-Ron DID average 2.0 steals under Adelman in ‘05-06, but that was just for half a season and he needed a whopping 40.1 minutes per game to get that. Yes, Doug Christie DID routinely average over 2 steals per game under Adelman, but those Sacramento teams played at a very fast tempo and thrived on forcing turnovers (kinda like the current Lakers).

As a result, I think Ariza’s spg average will be much closer to 1.8 than 2.2, and if someone else is expecting him to lead the league with 2.5 steals or something crazy, then they could draft him way too soon. Another factor that must be considered is the CERTAIN drop in FG% that he’s bound to suffer. Last year, Ariza made 31.9% of his threes and 46.0% of his shots overall. That’s not a good sign, because he got a LOT of easy buckets as the 4th or 5th offensive weapon on the Lakers.

Without T-Mac and Yao (and even Von Wafer), the Rockets offense simply doesn’t have as much firepower this year. Aaron Brooks will do all that he can, but he won’t get much help in terms of creating for others. Scola can command a few double teams, but nowhere near as many as Yao did. Battier and Landry are rock solid, but neither are able to create like say, a Kobe or Pau. So Ariza is going to have the ball in his hands quite a bit this season, and he’ll likely commit a lot more turnovers. His FG% is sure to plummet, and while he’ll get to the line often, he’s just a career 66% free throw shooter.

So as you can see, there are lots of negatives to consider when thinking about Ariza. And not just Trevor. For EVERY PLAYER that you consider drafting (the younger ones especially), you should think about his potential cons. The last thing you want is a roster full of “potential” and nothing more. So to help you out with that, I’ve developed a rating system specifically made for RotoE’s 50 Players to Target.

On a scale of 1-5, each player gets rated in both “Upside” and “Trust Factor,” for a maximum total rating of 10 points.

for Trevor Ariza: Upside = 4.00, Trust Factor = 2.25, TOTAL = 6.25

So his upside in Houston is pretty good (endless opportunities), but I don’t really trust him to have an excellent breakout year. As you can see, I’m not entirely sold on Ariza for the upcoming season. In fact, he’s the lowest-rated Young Breakout Star on my list (now you see why I gave him away for free).

For the rest of my 50 Players to Target, there are lots of 7.5’s and above, and those are the players that you REALLY WANT. By viewing a player’s ratings, you get an idea of his risk (trust factor) and reward (upside). Take smart and calculated risks, and you will probably be rewarded.

Proven Starters – Hungry for More (6 targets)

Trevor Ariza: Upside = 4.00, Trust Factor = 2.25, TOTAL = 6.25
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First Time Starters – Making the Jump (8 targets)

Anthony Randolph: Upside = 4.50, Trust Factor = 2.75, TOTAL = 7.25

Click here to read more on Randolph. I have since lowered my projections for him (only slightly) due to the return of CJ Watson and the arrival of Mikki Moore, but I am still optimistic. The trust factor would be higher if Nellie wasn’t around, but the overall score is still solid.
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Key Reserves – Ready for a Bigger Role (6 targets)

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True Sleepers – Off Everyone Else’s Radar (4 targets)

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Up next, Part 2:
Bounce Back Ballers and Career Year Candidates

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LAST SEASON

Sam Mitchell coached Toronto for 4+ seasons, but after getting off to an 8-9 start, he was promptly fired. Jay Triano took over and went 25-40 in his first year as an NBA head coach. The Raptors missed out on the playoffs, but they still had the league’s 10th highest attendance.

Their 92.0 pace factor was right around the league average, but they did become a more efficient offensive team after Triano took over. Surprisingly, their opponents attempted 427 more threes over the course of the season, despite the Raptors making more of their attempts from beyond the arc (37.2% 3P compared to 36.7%).

MANAGEMENT

Main Owner: Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan
General Manager: Bryan Colangelo
Head Coach: Jay Triano

Maple Leaf Sports & Entertainment is a $1.8 billion corporation that owns and operates the Toronto Maple Leafs, Raptors, and other sports teams and TV stations. But did you know that the sports conglomerate is just one of many things owned by the Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan? Say what?!? The OTPP administers the pensions of 284,000 active and retired teachers in Ontario, while investing the pension fund’s $87 billion in assets at the same time, making it one of the largest and most powerful investment groups in Canada.

Bryan Colangelo is the son of Jerry Colangelo (former owner of the Suns and now director of USA basketball). However, Bryan more than earned his stripes in Phoenix by trading for Nash and drafting Amare and Marion, among other solid moves. He was hired by Toronto in 2006, he was named Executive of the Year in 2007, and now Bosh and Calderon are the only players remaining from the squad that he inherited.

When Colangelo promoted Jay Triano last season, Triano became the 1st Canadian-born head coach in NBA history. Despite his poor record last season, Triano was given a 3-year deal to stay on as head coach. He is also an assistant coach for USA Basketball, recently leading the Team USA minicamp in Las Vegas.

OFFSEASON MOVES

Key Additions: Turkoglu, DeRozan, Jack, Belinelli, A. Wright, A. Johnson, Nesterovic, Evans, Weems
Key Losses: Marion, A. Parker, Kapono, Mensah-Bonsu, Ukic, J. Graham, Delfino

Talk about an overhaul! Colangelo wasn’t afraid to make some major moves over the summer, so he kept his core of Bosh-Bargnani-Calderon and replaced just about everyone else. It started with Toronto’s signing of Hedo Turkoglu to a 5-year deal for $53 million. He gives the Raptors an elite offensive player with plenty of postseason experience.

With Marion leaving to Dallas, Parker signing with Cleveland, and Kapono going to Philly, Toronto had to bring in several more scorers. They drafted DeMar DeRozan out of USC in hopes that he’ll become a future star, signed veteran guard Jarrett Jack (teammate of Bosh at Georgia Tech) for more immediate help, and acquired promising guards Marco Belinelli (teammate of Bargnani on the Italian national team) and Antoine Wright via trade. To replace fan favorite Pops Mensah-Bonsu, they added veteran big men Reggie Evans and Rasho Nesterovic. And last but not least, since they still owned the rights to Carlos Delfino, they sent him to Milwaukee for prospects Amir Johnson and Sonny Weems.

How often do you think Marco is going to remind Hedo of this Eurobasket 2007 play?

Answer: I dunno, but I would love to listen to those announcers for a full game. “IN YOUR FACE!!!”

DEPTH CHART

PG: Jose Calderon / Jarrett Jack / Quincy Douby
SG: Antoine Wright / Marco Belinelli / Jarrett Jack
SF: Hedo Turkoglu / DeMar DeRozan / Sonny Weems
PF: Andrea Bargnani / Amir Johnson / Reggie Evans
C: Chris Bosh / Rasho Nesterovic / Patrick O’Bryant

ROTATION / PLAYING TIME

Bosh averaged 38.0 mpg last year and is Toronto’s top player, so mark him down for the same. Playing alongside him usually will be Andrea Bargnani. AB averaged 34.6 mpg in 59 starts last season, so he should be a lock for 35+ minutes in ‘09-10. Off the bench, Rasho Nesterovic has averaged 22.8 mpg over his 11 year career, but he’ll struggle to get more than 12-14 minutes unless someone gets hurt. Veteran Reggie Evans and youngsters Amir Johnson and O’Bryant will battle for the remaining big man minutes, but only one is worth keeping an eye on (see below).

At point guard, Calderon averaged 34.3 mpg last year, but he suffered hamstring troubles that limited his minutes on several occasions. If healthy, mark him down for 35-36 mpg in the upcoming season. Meanwhile, Turkoglu will start at small forward and also get around 36 minutes of action. The remaining minutes will be divvied up among the following players…

Preseason Battle to Watch: Wright vs. Belinelli vs. Jack vs. DeRozan

Antoine Wright has the best combination of size and experience, so he may get the first crack at starting. Last year he started 53 games for Dallas while playing 26.7 mpg. However, if Wright struggles out of the gate, Marco could step into the lineup and instantly give Toronto another outside shooting threat. As a result, both Wright and Belinelli have the potential to play anywhere from 16 to 26 minutes a piece. If neither man seizes the job, then Jarrett Jack could see extensive duty at both guards spots. Meanwhile, DeMar DeRozan has all kinds of potential, but he’ll probably be limited to just 10-15 minutes to start the season. If Toronto falls out of the playoff race however, his minutes could shoot up in the second half.

Odd Man Out: Reggie Evans

Evans is still a very good rebounder, but he brings little else to the table and is on the downside of his career. He was useful in the ‘07-08 season when he pulled down 7.5 boards in just 23.2 mpg, but those days are long gone if you ask me. Don’t even consider him unless Bosh goes down.

DON’T SLEEP ON: Jose Calderon

There was nothing wrong with Calderon’s ‘08-09 stats. From the charity stripe, Jose posted the highest single-season FT% EVER, making 151 of 154 attempts for a blistering 98.1% FT (Calvin Murphy, Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf, Ray Allen, and Jeff Hornacek all shot between 95-96% one season). He also ranked 4th in assists with 8.9 per game, 26th in FG%, and 31st in 3P%. Among players who averaged 10+ ppg last season, Calderon’s 61.3% True Shooting Percentage (PTS / [2 * (FGA + .44 * FTA)) ranked 9th overall.

However, a bum hamstring bothered Jose for most of last season, and it showed in some of his stats. He shot just 44.1% from the field in November, he averaged just 26.8 minutes in January, and his steal rate (1.3 per 36 minutes in ‘07-08) was also down. On a healthy hammy, he should improve on all of those stats. The addition of Turkoglu will likely hurt his assists, but Hedo’s ability to drive and kick should result in lots of open 3-pointers for Calderon. He’s one of the few players who can shoot over 50% FG, 40% 3P, and 90% FT, and he’s going to challenge Deron Williams, Jason Kidd, and Chauncey Billups for #2 PG status in 9-cat leagues.

BE CAREFUL OF: Jarrett Jack

Jack’s ‘08-09 stats are overinflated because he started 52 games for Indiana, but he’s likely going to come off the bench for Toronto. In the 29 games where he did NOT start last season, Jack averaged just 8.8 points, 3.3 dimes, and .7 treys in 26.7 minutes. He also shot just 38.8% FG off the bench compared to 47.9% FG as a starter. He’s still worth a pick in deeper leagues, but only consider him in the later rounds.

Prospect to Keep an Eye on: Amir Johnson

He’s been in the league for 4 years already, but since he’s still just 22, it’s okay to call Amir Johnson a prospect. Amir has flashed plenty of potential in the past, but his numbers regressed last season in nearly every category. Perhaps the worst sign was that he committed a career-high 6.8 fouls per 36 minutes, struggling to stay on the court. Most raw big men commit a ton of fouls when they first come into the league, but their foul rate usually declines after a few seasons. Amir’s hasn’t, so that’s a legit concern. On the other hand, the Pistons did him no favors offensively by playing at such a slow tempo (Detroit was 29th in pace factor last season). Johnson could possibly excel in an uptempo system where he gets to block shots (3.1 rejections per 36 minutes for his career) and run the floor for easy buckets (57.7% FG for his career), as demonstrated in the video below. The playing time won’t be there right away, but definitely keep an eye on him of you need blocks.

Most Likely to Miss 20+ Games: Chris Bosh

He’s never had a MAJOR injury, but Bosh always seems to miss some time. He’s played 78+ games only once in his career, and has missed an average of 11.3 games over the past 4 seasons. Since Bargnani doesn’t really like to bang inside, Bosh has to go against bigger, more physical opponents nearly every game, and you can see how the pounding would take its toll. In fact, I once lived with someone who was friends with Bosh growing up in Dallas, and even HE said that CB4 needs to bulk up and get stronger.

Most Likely to Put Up Big Stats After an Injury: Marco Belinelli

Belinelli played well in 23 starts for the Warriors last year, averaging 11.3 points, 2.9 assists, 1 steal, and 1.7 treys in just 27.6 minutes. If you think about it, those numbers are BETTER than what Anthony Parker did last season, despite Candance’s brother playing 5.4 more minutes per game! Marco is nearly a 40% shooter from beyond the arc for his career, and he can get hot in a hurry. He’s also a capable ballhandler and willing passer, so he’s just one injury away from putting up really solid stats. Belinelli should be very comfortable playing with 4 other Euros, and at the age of 23, he still has plenty of upside.

PLAYER PROFILES / RANKING POTENTIAL

Chris Bosh

Among the 4 players who averaged 20+ points and 10+ boards last year (D. Howard, A. Jefferson, and Z. Randolph were the others), Bosh was the only one who shot over 75% FT. In fact, he’s made nearly 82% of his freebies over the past 4 years while getting to the line over 8 times per game! Now hopefully he cuts back on the 3-pointers (12-49 last year) to improve his FG%. He could REALLY improve his value by pumping his blocks back up (1.0 per game in each of the past 2 seasons after blocking 1.4 shots per game his first 2 years in the league). A career-high in assists is also possible thanks to Toronto’s added weapons. Factor in that Bosh will likely be playing for a new contract this year, and you have one of the top big men around.

Lock For: Top 24
Good Shot At: Top 16
Potential For: Top 8

Jose Calderon

See above.

Lock For: Top 36
Good Shot At: Top 24
Potential For: Top 12

Andrea Bargnani

After a sluggish start (just 26.3 minutes and 10.3 points on 40.6% FG shooting in his first 32 games), Bargnani really turned it on. In fact, if you picked him up off the waiver wire, you got one of the best free agent pickups of the year. In the 50 games that followed, AB averaged a sparkling 17.4 points and 1.7 treys on 46.9% FG, 43.3% 3P, and 82.1% FT shooting. His rebounds are weak, but he’s one of the top shooting big men in the league, making him the perfect “small ball” center. However, don’t expect a huge improvement over those “last 50″ stats, because the Raptors have more depth and a more balanced scoring attack this year.

Lock For: Top 75
Good Shot At: Top 55
Potential For: Top 35

Hedo Turkoglu

After a career-year in ‘07-08, Hedo’s numbers declined quite a bit last season. The biggest culprit was his outside shooting, as he made just 35.6% of his shots from beyond the arc after shooting 40% 3P the year before. As a result, both his FG% and scoring average plummeted, making him a Top 100 fantasy player rather than a Top 50 one. He’s one of a few swingmen who can average 5+ boards and 5+ dimes, but his assists will likely dip slightly thanks to Jose Calderon. Turkoglu is really clutch, but due to low steals and relatively high turnovers, his real life value is greater than his fantasy value.

Lock For: Top 100
Good Shot At: Top 80
Potential For: Top 60

Jarrett Jack

See above.

Lock For: Top 200
Good Shot At: Top 150
Potential For: Top 100

Marco Belinelli

See above.

Lock For: Top 240
Good Shot At: Top 190
Potential For: Top 140

Amir Johnson

See above.

Lock For: Nothing
Good Shot At: Top 250
Potential For: Top 200

Antoine Wright

Wright could have some value if he wins the starting two guard job, but his upside is very limited. In 53 starts last season, he averaged just 8.6 points, 2.3 rebounds, .8 steals, .8 threes, and .5 blocks in 26.7 minutes. Those are very mediocre numbers, so you’ll only want to consider him in very deep leagues.

Lock For: Nothing
Good Shot At: Top 250
Potential For: Top 200

DeMar DeRozan

The rookie averaged just 13.9 points in his only year at college, and his other numbers suggest that he’s not ready to contribute much right away. DeRozan shot just 16.7% 3P and 64.6% FT, so his shot obviously needs a lot of work. And while he’s extremely long and athletic, he averaged just .9 steals and .4 blocks in college, which is very sub-par. DeRozan has plenty of potential, but I suggest staying away this year.

Lock For: Nothing
Good Shot At: Top 275
Potential For: Top 225

EVIL’S PREDICTIONS

Projected Record: 42-40
Projected Finish: 2nd in Division, 8th in Conference

Crunch Time Lineup: Calderon, Jack, Turkoglu, Bargnani, Bosh
+/- Curveball Lineup: Calderon, Belinelli, Turkoglu, Amir, Bosh

Pleasant Surprise: Despite all of the new additions, the players gel together right away. Calderon has a career year, and Bosh puts all of the free agent chatter behind him as he focuses on leading Toronto back into the playoffs.

Biggest Disappointment: DeRozan struggles in his rookie season and Antoine Wright doesn’t capitalize on his opportunity.

Bold Prediction: The Raptors will become one of the league’s more dynamic offensive teams, but their defense will suffer and they will routinely give up 110+ points. Even if they make the playoffs, I still see Bosh bolting when the season ends.

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*This Toronto Raptors team preview was published by Eric Wong of RotoEvil.com on September 3rd, 2009. If you enjoyed reading it, please bookmark the site and check out the other free team previews.

If you want to get ALL of the team previews (including updates to this one), stat projections & analysis for 360+ players, in-depth sleeper & strategy articles, and the best draft ratings, player rankings, tiers, and cheatsheets around, then stay tuned for his 2009-2010 Fantasy Basketball Draft Guide. Join hundreds of satisfied customers, and you’ll get everything you need to win your fantasy hoops league.
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