Stretch Run Rankings: Power Forwards

Over the past month, Troy Murphy and Lamar Odom have been two of the finest fantasy players around. How do they rank for the rest of the year?

It’s the stretch run for fantasy owners, so now is a good time to evaluate all of the key players.

For my stretch run rankings, I’ve grouped players into levels. Level 10 players are the “Best of the Best” and Level 1 players you don’t even want to think about owning. These rankings are based on how I see each player finishing out the season.

I’ve evaluated each player on a case-by-case basis. The # of games left is important, so I’ve factored this in and included the weekly schedule for each player in parentheses (starting with Monday, March 2nd). Playing time can drastically change down the stretch, so this has been taken into account as well. If a team will be fighting for a playoff spot or a top seed until the very end, that bodes well for the stats of their top players. If a team has a playoff spot locked up already, they’ll probably choose to rest their starters down the stretch. If a team is out of the playoff race already, they may or may not continue to give their top players big minutes.

For those of you looking to make last-minute trades, the separate levels I’ve created should be helpful. I obviously don’t recommend trading a Level 7 guy for a Level 6 straight up. For 2-for-1 trades, I suggest following a “50% rule.” This means I would only consider trading away 1 stud for 2 lesser players if their total Levels are 1.5 times greater. Conversely, trading away 2 players for 1 stud is recommended as long as the total value you’re giving up isn’t 50% greater than the player in return. Stay tuned for the rest of the positions…

Level 10 – Best of the Best

NO ONE

In my opinion, there are no Level 10 power forwards.

Level 9 – Fantasy’s Finest

Dirk Nowitzki (23 games – 4, 4, 3, 3, 4, 3, 2)

What happened to the high-scoring Dirk? If his last 4 games, Nowitzki is averaging a mere 12.3 points on 38% FG shooting. Still, Dallas is fighting to stay in the playoffs and earn a decent seed, so expect Dirk to bounce back and finish strong.

Level 8 – Stud Superstars

Tim Duncan (24 games – 4, 3, 4, 4, 3, 4, 2)

Duncan has missed 2 games in a row with a quad injury, which is unfortunate because he was averaging 22.6 points, 13.4 boards, and 4.4 assists in February before getting hurt. With Ginobili out a little while longer, San Antonio needs extra scoring from Timmy. However, Duncan played just 29.4 minutes last April and is sure to rest up before the playoffs.

David West (24 games – 3, 4, 4, 3, 4, 4, 2)

It took an injury to Tyson Chandler for him to really get going, but West finally got aggressive in February, averaging a season-best 20.8 points, 9.4 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.2 blocks, and 7.8 free throw attempts. I’m a big believer in “X,” and with a strong schedule, I’m expecting him to be one of the top power forwards down the stretch.

Lamar Odom (22 games – 2, 4, 3, 4, 4, 4, 1)

Andrew Bynum’s injury was a major boost to Odom owners, as the versatile forward is averaging 16.9 points, 12.9 boards, and 1.5 blocks on 55% shooting from the field in February. The Lakers might reduce his minutes down the stretch, but Odom has been a stud recently.

Troy Murphy (20 games – 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 2)

Murphy has been absolutely phenomenal in February, averaging 18.4 points, 12.8 rebounds, 2.7 assists, and 2.4 treys on 51% FG and 87% FT shooting. Not a single guy in the league can match those numbers, which is why he’s been a Top 15 fantasy player recently. Indy’s stretch run schedule is terrible, but Murphy is a must-start the rest of the way.

Level 7 – Premium Picks

Rashard Lewis (23 games – 3, 4, 3, 3, 4, 4, 2)

Lewis is really struggling right now, scoring just 14.4 points on 38% FG shooting in February. However, he should snap out of it soon, and Orlando can’t afford to rest him because his only backup is Tony Battie. If you need threes, now is a good time to buy low on Lewis.

LaMarcus Aldridge (23 games – 3, 4, 4, 3, 3, 4, 2)

With Greg Oden ailing, Aldridge has stepped up his game recently. The smooth big man is averaging 20.2 points and 8.4 rebounds in 38 minutes over his last 5 games, and I’m expecting these improved numbers to continue since Portland is fighting for a good playoff seed.

Jeff Green (23 games – 4, 3, 4, 3, 3, 4, 2)

Much like his partner in crime Kevin Durant, Green seems to get better every month. In February he’s averaging season highs of 40.7 minutes, 19.1 points, 9.2 boards and 2.9 assists, so his confidence is sky high right now. He should continue to get big minutes, making him a premium pick indeed.

Antawn Jamison (23 games – 4, 4, 4, 4, 3, 2, 2)

It’s been a tough year for the Wizards, but Jamison has consistently put up solid stats all season long. He currently ranks 6th in minutes played with 38.6 per game, but with Washington already out of the playoffs, it wouldn’t be surprising to see his playing time dwindle down the stretch.

Al Harrington (23 games – 3, 4, 3, 4, 4, 4, 1)

Harrington has been on fire in February, scoring 24.3 points and nailing 2.6 treys on 49% shooting from the field. Surely those numbers are going to fall, but with a strong schedule and plenty of minutes, Al looks like a must-start player the rest of the way.

Boris Diaw (22 games – 3, 3, 4, 3, 4, 3, 2)

Diaw continues to contribute across the board, making him a must-start player in almost every league. Charlotte probably won’t make the playoffs, but Boris is playing 38+ minutes every night and the Bobcats don’t have a talented youngster to develop behind him.

Chris Bosh (21 games – 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 4, 2)

A knee injury recently sidelined Chris Bosh, but he’s back in the lineup and playing well. However, with a slew of 3-game weeks ahead and Toronto eerily close to falling out of the playoff race, there are several big men that I’d take over CB4 right now.

Charlie Villanueva (20 games – 4, 3, 2, 3, 4, 2, 2)

Villanueva has been a stud in 2009, averaging 20.9 points, 7 rebounds, .8 blocks, and 1.9 threes on 49.5% FG shooting since the 1st of the year. The Bucks need his offensive firepower to compete, so he’ll continue logging heavy minutes and scoring in bunches. The only negative is Milwaukee’s poor schedule to close out the season.

Level 6 – Solid Starters

Thaddeus Young (24 games – 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 2)

Since January 1st, Young is averaging a solid 35.5 minutes, 14.1 points, 5.1 rebounds, 1.6 steals, and .8 threes on 46.9% shooting from the field. He doesn’t have many monster games, but he’s the definition of a solid starter.

Antonio McDyess (24 games – 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 3, 2)

McDyess was recently moved into the Piston’s starting lineup, and he’s been rock solid ever since, averaging 33.4 minutes, 14.6 points, 9.4 boards, and .8 blocks on 64% FG shooting in his last 5 games. With his improved stats and Detroit’s strong stretch run schedule, that makes the Diceman a strong option the rest of the way.

Ryan Gomes (23 games – 3, 4, 4, 4, 3, 3, 2)

Gomes has been excellent since Al Jefferson went down, averaging 20.8 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 2.3 threes in his last 8 games. Minnesota needs the veteran on the court to stay competitive, so don’t expect his minutes to drop down the stretch.

Josh Smith (23 games – 4, 4, 3, 4, 3, 3, 2)

After a strong January, J-Smoov has been terrible in February, averaging just 12.1 points and 5.1 rebounds. He missed his last game due to personal matters, and I wonder if an off-the-court issue has been affecting his play. At this point, the one-time Level 9 player has fallen to Level 6.

Zach Randolph (22 games – 3, 3, 4, 4, 3, 3, 2)

If you throw out his game against Phoenix where he was ejected for throwing a punch, Randolph has averaged 38.3 minutes, 26.5 points, and 11.2 boards in his last 6 games. Those are easily Level 7 numbers, but with the Clippers’ poor end of season schedule and Chris Kaman’s potential return, I had to drop him one notch.

Tyrus Thomas (22 games – 3, 4, 3, 5, 2, 3, 2)

After a terrible start to the season, Tyrus has been excellent in February, averaging 34.3 minutes, 15.8 points, 8.8 boards, 1.6 steals, and 2 blocks on 49.6% FG shooting. However, his minutes have gone down since Chicago’s recent trades, which is somewhat worrisome.

Kevin Garnett (21 games – 3, 3, 4, 4, 2, 3, 2)

How did Garnett fall to Level 6? For starters, he’s currently out with a knee injury, meaning you won’t be able to play him in week 19 and maybe week 20 as well. Boston is being cautious, and rightfully so. They’ll likely give him extra rest the last couple of weeks as well, and since the Celtics play just 7 times in the last 3 weeks, that means you might have to bench him.

Level 5 – Okay Options

Udonis Haslem (24 games – 4, 4, 3, 4, 4, 3, 2)

Haslem doesn’t wow you in any category, but he comes to play and gets the job done. The arrival of Jermaine O’Neal hasn’t hurt his stats, so if you’ve been starting him you can continue to do so.

Carlos Boozer (22 games – 3, 4, 2, 3, 5, 3, 2)

Boozer finally returned from his knee injury recently, but his minutes have been limited thus far. He might be rusty for another week or two, but he should be his old self soon enough. If you’ve held onto him this long, you’ll finally be rewarded in week 23, when the Jazz play 5 times.

Kenyon Martin (22 games – 4, 3, 3, 4, 4, 2, 2)

K-Mart has battled back spasms and strep throat recently, and it’s really hurt his play, as he’s averaging a meager 9.8 points and 5.6 boards in the month of February. Denver needs him to bounce back, but with a poor schedule and his shaky numbers recently, he’s only an okay option.

Luis Scola (22 games – 4, 4, 4, 2, 3, 3, 2)

Scola has improved his stats every month this season, and is averaging an impressive 13.5 points and 10.3 boards on 51.6% FG and 88.6% FT shooting in February. However, with just 10 games in his last 4 weeks, Houston’s schedule is not very friendly.

Level 4 – Borderline Ballers

Michael Beasley (24 games – 4, 4, 3, 4, 4, 3, 2)

There was hope that Beasley might earn more playing time after Marion departed, but the rookie is averaging just 22.3 minutes, 10.3 points, and 3.8 boards in 4 games since the All-Star break. Those are very mediocre numbers, and it means that you won’t be able to rely on him unless someone gets hurt.

Yi Jianlian (23 games – 4, 3, 4, 3, 4, 3, 2)

After missing a month with a broken finger, Yi is back in New Jersey’s starting lineup. He hasn’t shot the ball that well yet, but he’s racked up 15 boards, 4 steals, and 2 blocks in his last 2 games. When he heats up he’ll be a decent option, because he has the ability to knock down AND block shots.

Brandon Bass (23 games – 4, 4, 3, 3, 4, 3, 2)

Since January 1st, Bass has been a decent option in deep leagues, averaging 21.7 minutes, 10 points, 5 boards, and 1.1 blocks on 51% FG and 88% FT shooting. I love the excellent shooting %’s, and it’s just too bad that he doesn’t get more playing time.

Paul Millsap (22 games – 3, 4, 2, 3, 5, 3, 2)

Millsap was a beast in December and January, but he wore down in February and now Boozer is back. As a result, Millsap played just 17 minutes on Wednesday and will likely be a reserve the rest of the way. He’s worth hanging onto in deep leagues, but it might take an injury for you to start him.

Drew Gooden (21 games – 2, 3, 4, 2, 4, 4, 2)

In his first game for Sacramento, Gooden scored 12 points and grabbed 13 boards in just 26 minutes. Not bad after missing 5 weeks with a groin injury. Unfortunately, he aggravated the injury and could shut it down if his groin doesn’t improve.

Jason Thompson (21 games – 2, 3, 4, 2, 4, 4, 2)

Thompson was money in January, averaging 12.8 points and 7.3 boards on 54% FG and 88% FT shooting. Unfortunately, the Kings acquired several power forwards before the trade deadline, which has limited his playing time. However, if Gooden shuts it down soon, Thompson could be a reliable starter once again.

Level 3 – Respectable Reserves

Hakim Warrick (24 games – 4, 3, 4, 3, 4, 4, 2)

Coach Hollins recently sent Warrick back to the bench, which has severely limited his fantasy value. The upside is still there, but he’s not a reliable starter right now.

Marreese Speights (24 games – 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 2)

Speights is just a rookie, but he’s already proven that he belongs in the NBA. He’s been very effective in limited minutes, and has value in ultra deep leagues.

Anthony Randolph (23 games – 4, 3, 4, 3, 4, 3, 2)

The 19-year old rookie had a breakout game against the Lakers last week, dropping 14 points, 12 boards, and 2 blocks in only 28 minutes. It was just the 5th game of the season where he played 24+ minutes, but more playing time will likely come his way down the stretch. If you’re in a deep league, pick him up and wait for that to happen.

Darius Songaila (23 games – 4, 4, 4, 4, 3, 2, 2)

Songaila doesn’t pull down many rebounds, but he’s averaging 9.8 points in his last 5 games and is shooting 54% from the field and 94% from the line in February. If you need scoring help in ultra deep leagues, give the Lithuanian a look.

James Singleton (23 games – 4, 4, 3, 3, 4, 3, 2)

With 35 points, 33 rebounds, 2 steals, and 3 threes in his last 3 games, Singleton is back on the fantasy map. The three-point shooting may not continue, but he’s always been an active rebounder when he gets the minutes. Erick Dampier isn’t doing much these days, so keep an eye on Singleton.

Level 2 – Potential Pickups

For Threes:

Steve Novak (3, 3, 4, 4, 3, 3, 2), Walter Herrmann (3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 3, 2), Tim Thomas (3, 4, 3, 5, 2, 3, 2)

For Boards:

Leon Powe (3, 3, 4, 4, 2, 3, 2), Darrell Arthur (4, 3, 4, 3, 4, 4, 2), Carl Landry (4, 4, 4, 2, 3, 3, 2)

For Blocks:

Jason Maxiell (3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 3, 2), Brandan Wright (4, 3, 4, 3, 4, 3, 2), JJ Hickson (4, 4, 4, 3, 4, 3, 2)

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