Stretch Run Rankings: Shooting Guards

Only one of these guys can be the best of the best, and to me it’s a no-brainer.

It’s the stretch run for fantasy owners, so now is a good time to evaluate all of the key players.

For my stretch run rankings, I’ve grouped players into levels. Level 10 players are the “Best of the Best” and Level 1 players you don’t even want to think about owning. These rankings are based on how I see each player finishing out the season.

I’ve evaluated each player on a case-by-case basis. The # of games left is important, so I’ve factored this in and included the weekly schedule for each player in parentheses (starting with Monday, March 2nd). Playing time can drastically change down the stretch, so this has been taken into account as well. If a team will be fighting for a playoff spot or a top seed until the very end, that bodes well for the stats of their top players. If a team has a playoff spot locked up already, they’ll probably choose to rest their starters down the stretch. If a team is out of the playoff race already, they may or may not continue to give their top players big minutes.

For those of you looking to make last-minute trades, the separate levels I’ve created should be helpful. I obviously don’t recommend trading a Level 7 guy for a Level 6 straight up. For 2-for-1 trades, I suggest following a “50% rule.” This means I would only consider trading away 1 stud for 2 lesser players if their total Levels are 1.5 times greater. Conversely, trading away 2 players for 1 stud is recommended as long as the total value you’re giving up isn’t 50% greater than the player in return. Stay tuned for the rest of the positions…

Level 10 – Best of the Best

Dwyane Wade (24 games – 4, 4, 3, 4, 4, 3, 2)

Want Dwyane Wade’s season in a nutshell? Miami was down 15 points to the Knicks to start the 4th quarter on Saturday, but Wade scored a franchise record 24 points in the 4th to lead the Heat to a 5 point victory. He took an elbow to the mouth and needed 3 stitches to patch it up, but finished the game with 46 points, 8 rebounds, 10 assists, 4 steals, 3 blocks, 2 threes, and only 2 turnovers on 16-29 FG and 12-12 FT shooting. WOW. Wade hasn’t slowed down at all this season, which is why he’s clearly the best of the best.

Level 9 – Fantasy’s Finest

Kobe Bryant (22 games – 2, 4, 3, 4, 4, 4, 1)

How good have the Lakers been this season? Kobe sat out his NINTH 4th quarter of the season on Thursday, and he’ll likely sit out several more down the stretch. For this reason, he’s just a Level 9 player. If you own him, I suggest trying to package him with someone else for one of the Level 10 guys.

Level 8 – Stud Superstars

Brandon Roy (23 games – 3, 4, 4, 3, 3, 4, 2)

Depending on how they finish out the season, Portland could end up as high as the #3 seed in the West or as low as being out of the playoffs. As a result, you can expect Brandon Roy to carry this team on his back the rest of the way. The versatile guard should put up superstar stats the rest of the way.

Joe Johnson (23 games – 4, 4, 3, 4, 3, 3, 2)

Johnson hasn’t been his superstar self recently, but I’m expecting that to change down the stretch. If Atlanta wants to get past the 1st round of the playoffs, they can’t afford to lose any momentum at the end of the season, which means they can’t afford to rest their veteran leader.

Ray Allen (21 games – 3, 3, 4, 4, 2, 3, 2)

Allen has been money all season long, and with KG out, he’s averaged 26 points and a whopping 4.5 treys in his last 4 games! Paul Pierce’s thumb is bothering him, so expect Jesus to continue putting up big-time numbers. Boston’s poor schedule is a cause for concern, but Allen is still a superstar stud.

Kevin Martin (21 games – 2, 3, 4, 2, 4, 4, 2)

While there’s no making up for the 22 games that he missed prior, Kev-Mart has put up superstar stats in 2009, averaging 25.6 points, 2.8 dimes, 2.6 threes, 1.1 steals, and 10.6 free throw attempts on 87.5% FT shooting since January 1st. There’s some concern that the Kings could sit him down the stretch to ensure the worst record in the NBA (and hence the most number of ping-pong balls), but I don’t think that’s going to happen.

Level 7 – Premium Picks

OJ Mayo (24 games – 4, 3, 4, 3, 4, 4, 2)

Has Mayo hit the rookie wall? In his last 10 games he’s made just 36.8% of his shots, altho his overall numbers are still pretty solid. He’ll continue to log heavy minutes and Memphis has a nice schedule, but be prepared for your FG% to take a hit.

Richard Hamilton (24 games – 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 3, 2)

Hamilton’s season stats are pretty weak compared to previous years, but I have a feeling that’s about to change. He was moved back into the starting lineup on Friday, and he responded with 31 points, 6 assists, 3 steals, and 9-of-10 free throws in a WIN against a tough Orlando team. Rip is not used to seeing his team under .500, which is why I think he’s going to put up excellent numbers the rest of the way.

Randy Foye (23 games – 3, 4, 4, 4, 3, 3, 2)

What a revelation! After spending 2+ years trying to make Randy Foye a point guard, Minnesota finally decided to slide him over to shooting guard, where the talented scorer has flourished. Since January 1st, he’s averaging 19.3 points, 4.2 dimes, 2.3 treys, and 1.3 steals on 83.3% FT shooting, and since McCants was traded, the T-Wolves don’t really have a backup for him.

Vince Carter (23 games – 4, 3, 4, 3, 4, 3, 2)

Carter has really struggled with his shot lately, but his stats should improve as he tries to earn a playoff berth for New Jersey. As long as the Nets aren’t out of it, Vince should continue to play big minutes and put up outstanding stats.

Level 6 – Solid Starters

Delonte West (24 games – 4, 4, 4, 3, 4, 3, 2)

Delonte has been up and down since returning from his wrist injury, but he should be a solid starter down the stretch. Cleveland has a nice schedule and they’ll need West to play well if they want to win the East, so don’t expect him to rest much down the stretch.

Jason Terry (23 games – 4, 4, 3, 3, 4, 3, 2)

Good news for Jason Terry owners: the Jet was cleared to practice on Friday, so he could return in a week or so if everything goes according to planned. His absence has been sorely missed, because Terry was playing like a Level 8 guy for most of the season. Dallas doesn’t have the best schedule to end the year, but JT can still help out plenty.

Leandro Barbosa (23 games – 4, 4, 2, 5, 3, 3, 2)

Barbosa erupted for 41 points, 7 dimes, and 5 threes vs. the Thunder last week, and he’s been getting more playing time recently with Steve Nash ailing. He’s also shooting over 50% from the field since January 1st, making him a solid play the rest of the way.

Jason Richardson (23 games – 4, 4, 2, 5, 3, 3, 2)

Switching to a more uptempo offense definitely helps J-Rich, as the athletic swingman is averaging 19.8 points and 2 threes in his last 5 games. Hopefully the Suns stay in the playoff race a little while longer, because if not, Alando Tucker could start getting more minutes.

Ben Gordon (22 games – 3, 4, 3, 5, 2, 3, 2)

Gordon’s minutes and shot attempts have been on the decline since John Salmons arrived, and he’s averaging just 16 points and .5 threes in his last 4 games. However, Luol Deng may have suffered a serious injury on Saturday, which could elevate BG back to Level 7.

Eric Gordon (22 games – 3, 3, 4, 4, 3, 3, 2)

In 45 starts this season, Gordon is averaging a rock solid 38.6 minutes, 18.2 points, 3.0 assists, 1.9 threes, 1.1 steals, and .5 blocks on 45% FG and 87% FT shooting. Unfortunately, he’s currently out with a shoulder injury and he’s not going to get as many shots down the stretch now that the Clippers are getting healthy. He’ll still be solid, but expect his stats to slip a bit.

Ronnie Brewer (22 games – 3, 4, 2, 3, 5, 3, 2)

Brewer scored a career-high 26 points on Saturday, to go along with 7 boards and 4 steals. He’s playing his best ball of the season right now, averaging 36.5 minutes and 17.5 points on 55.6% FG shooting in February. Utah doesn’t have the greatest schedule, but Brewer is rock solid right now.

JR Smith (22 games – 4, 3, 3, 4, 4, 2, 2)

Smith put up solid numbers when Anthony was hurt, but his stats have suffered since Melo returned. However, he played 32 minutes on Friday and (believe it or not) was praised by George Karl afterwards for his defense on Kobe. Since JR is no stranger to Karl’s doghouse, that’s a great sign for Smith owners moving forward.

Jarrett Jack (20 games – 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 2)

In 31 starts, Jack is averaging a rock solid 14.5 points, 4.3 dimes, 1.1 steals, and 1.1 threes on 47.7% FG and 85.6% FT shooting. He’s emerged as Indiana’s starting shooting guard with Dunleavy out, and he’s getting plenty of scoring opportunities with Granger out. Still, you might want to sell high since Indy’s schedule is pretty poor.

Level 5 – Okay Options

Manu Ginobili (24 games – 4, 3, 4, 4, 3, 4, 2)

Losing Ginobili’s stellar all-around stats was a major blow to fantasy teams worldwide, as my team that had been sitting in 1st place for most of the season finally slipped to 2nd. He recently had a protective boot removed from his foot and should be on a treadmill soon, but it sounds like he’s stil a few weeks away. The Spurs aren’t going to rush him back, so you’ve just got to hope for the best.

Rasual Butler (24 games – 3, 4, 4, 3, 4, 4, 2)

Butler had a rock solid February, averaging 14.3 points, 4.5 rebounds, 2 threes, and 1 block per game on 46% shooting from the field. You can’t expect him to duplicate those numbers the rest of the way, but he’s playing with confidence right now and is a decent option in deep leagues.

Roger Mason (24 games – 4, 3, 4, 4, 3, 4, 2)

Mason is getting big minutes once again due to Ginobili’s injury, but his numbers have been very inconsistent. He made 2.7 threes and grabbed .9 steals on 50% 3P shooting in November, but averaged just 2.1 threes and .5 steals on 37% 3P shooting in February. As long as Manu’s out he’s a decent option, but don’t expect crazy numbers.

Jamal Crawford (23 games – 4, 3, 4, 3, 4, 3, 2)

Crawford averaged a season-low 17.1 points and 4.1 dimes in February, and now his owners have to worry about weekly benchings courtesy of Don Nelson. He sat out on Friday, and now he’s a risky play the rest of the year. He’s still an okay option, but he’s no longer a solid starter.

Thabo Sefolosha (23 games – 4, 3, 4, 3, 3, 4, 2)

Sefolosha had his best game of the season on Saturday, going for 15 points, 11 boards, 3 assists, 2 steals, and a block in 41 minutes. He’s going to get plenty of playing time with Durant sidelined for awhile, and he looks like a decent play in deep leagues.

Larry Hughes (23 games – 3, 4, 3, 4, 4, 4, 1)

It’s been a long time coming, but Larry Hughes might be a viable fantasy starter once again. He moved into the starting lineup on Saturday and has scored 44 points, made 7 threes, and grabbed 6 steals in his last 2 games. He’s clearly moved ahead of Wilson Chandler & Q-Rich in the rotation, and he’s gotta love playing for Mike D’Antoni. He’ll have some stinkers, but Hughes look like an okay play the rest of the way.

Raja Bell (22 games – 3, 3, 4, 3, 4, 3, 2)

Bell’s scoring numbers have been up and down all season long, but he always makes threes and is shooting 48.3% from the field since January 1st. Charlotte is trying to make a playoff push, so the veteran will continue logging heavy minutes.

Anthony Parker (21 games – 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 4, 2)

Parker hasn’t been very consistent this season, but his overall numbers are still pretty solid. Toronto’s schedule is really bad, so he’s just an okay option from here on out.

Marquis Daniels (20 games – 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 2)

Daniels has filled in admirably this season, averaging 15.9 points, 4.9 boards, 1.1 steals, and .6 blocks on 47% FG shooting in 35 starts. He’s a solid option right now, but with a poor schedule and Granger set to return in a couple of weeks, his value will be limited down the stretch.

Level 4 – Borderline Ballers

Louis Williams (24 games – 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 2)

After averaging 25.2 minutes, 16.1 points, 3.1 dimes, and 1.2 steals on 46% FG shooting in December, Lou Will averaged just 22.8 minutes, 10.9 points, 2.4 dimes, and .9 steals on 34% FG shooting in February. That’s a big drop-off, so it’s hard to rely on him right now. The potential is there, but you’ve got to wait for him to get hot.

Daequan Cook (24 games – 4, 4, 3, 4, 4, 3, 2)

After missing a few games and playing limited minutes for awhile, Cook is back on the fantasy radar. He’s made 8 treys in his last 3 games and he attempted a whopping TWELVE 3-point attempts on Friday. Obviously if you need threes you have to consider him, but don’t expect much help in any of the other cats.

Monta Ellis (23 games – 4, 3, 4, 3, 4, 3, 2)

Monta’s dreadful season continues, as he’s out again with his ankle injury and is now in Mississippi to tend to a family emergency. At this point, it looks like a lost season, as the Warriors have no need to rush him back. Those of you in keeper leagues have a tough decision to make.

Marco Belinelli (23 games – 4, 3, 4, 3, 4, 3, 2)

Belinelli averaged a solid 14.2 points, 3.2 assists, and 1.9 threes in 30.1 minutes in December, but his stats haven’t been anywhere close since then. However, he got the start on Friday and it looks like he’s going to get more playing time down the stretch. It’s tough to guess what kind of numbers he’ll put up, but he’s worth owning in deep leagues.

Rudy Fernandez (23 games – 3, 4, 4, 3, 3, 4, 2)

Rudy would be a must-start player if he got 30+ minutes of action every night, but that rarely happens these days. Still, if you need a shooter, Fernandez isn’t bad.

Ronald Murray (23 games – 4, 4, 3, 4, 3, 3, 2)

Flip Murray has been red hot since January 1st, averaging 14.2 points, 1.2 threes, and 1.1 steals on 50% shooting from the field. Give him a look if you need help in deep leagues.

Courtney Lee (23 games – 3, 4, 3, 3, 4, 4, 2)

With Pietrus battling injuries, Lee has stepped up and earned more minutes. The rookie has averaged a respectable 14.4 points, 2 treys, and 1 steal in 32.6 minutes over his last 5 games, and coach Van Gundy obviously has confidence in him. He should only be considered in deep leagues, but Lee has some value.

Antoine Wright (23 games – 4, 4, 3, 3, 4, 3, 2)

Wright has played fairly well with Terry out, averaging 28.7 minutes, 10.8 points, 1.3 steals, and 1 trey per game in the month of February. Since JT won’t be back for another week or more, Wright has some value in deeper leagues. Just don’t expect much.

Von Wafer (22 games – 4, 4, 4, 2, 3, 3, 2)

The injury to T-Mac has opened up 20-24 minutes per game for Wafer, and he’s responded by averaging 13 points and 2.3 threes in his last 4 games. He doesn’t contribute much in other categories, but if you need a shooter he merits consideration.

Brandon Rush (20 games – 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 2)

I’ve been waiting for Rush to bust loose, and he’s finally stepped up with 45 points, 6 treys, and 2 blocks in his last 3 games. He’s getting extra run with Granger out, making him a decent option in ultra deep leagues.

Charlie Bell (20 games – 4, 3, 2, 3, 4, 2, 2)

Bell was pretty good in February, averaging 14.3 points and 2.5 threes in 27.2 minutes. He’s getting extra playing time with Redd out for the season, but Milwaukee’s schedule isn’t doing him any favors.

Level 3 – Respectable Reserves

Willie Green (24 games – 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 4, 2)

Despite starting, Green usually does very little to help out fantasy teams. However, he’s averaging 13.3 points, 2.3 assists, and 1.3 threes in his last 4 games, so he has some value in ultra deep leagues.

Kyle Weaver (23 games – 4, 3, 4, 3, 3, 4, 2)

In 10 games as a starter, Weaver is averaging just 6 points on 38% FG shooting. Clearly his offense needs some work, but his all-around numbers are decent and he’ll get more playing time as long as Durant is out.

Mickael Pietrus (23 games – 3, 4, 3, 3, 4, 4, 2)

Thanks to a nagging wrist injury and inconsistent play, Pietrus has scored 20+ points just 2 times since November 14th. Stan Van Gundy no longer trusts him, which means you can’t rely on him either for your fantasy team.

Anthony Morrow (23 games – 4, 3, 4, 3, 4, 3, 2)

Morrow hasn’t scored in double figures in over a month, but he’s going to get more playing time down the stretch. Will he get enough minutes to make a fantasy impact? I’m not sure, but don’t be surprised if he has another 30 point game before the season is over.

Fred Jones (22 games – 3, 3, 4, 4, 3, 3, 2)

Jones has filled in admirably for the injury-plagued Clippers, and coach Dunleavy has rewarded him with decent minutes. However, he’s very inconsistent and will likely get less playing time down the stretch.

Kyle Korver (22 games – 3, 4, 2, 3, 5, 3, 2)

Korver has made 17 treys in his last 10 games, but he’s not getting enough minutes to be a reliable option right now. He should only be considered if you’re desperate for threes.

Jason Kapono (21 games – 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 4, 2)

Kapono averaged 10.2 points and 1.7 treys in February, but he doesn’t do anything else and Toronto’s stretch run schedule is terrible. Like Korver, only consider if you’re desperate for threes.

Level 2 – Potential Pickups

For Points:

Ricky Davis (3, 3, 4, 4, 3, 3, 2), Rashad McCants (2, 3, 4, 2, 4, 4, 2)

For Threes:

JJ Redick (3, 4, 3, 3, 4, 4, 2), Eddie House (3, 3, 4, 4, 2, 3, 2), Daniel Gibson (4, 4, 4, 3, 4, 3, 2)

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