2009-2010 Team Preview: Cleveland Cavaliers
August 18, 2009 by Evil E
LeBron + Shaq = ???
LAST SEASON
The Cavaliers had the best regular season record (66-16), winning over 80% of their games. They cruised thru the first two rounds of the playoffs (sweeping Detroit and Atlanta), but did not match up well with Orlando in the Eastern Finals, losing in 6 games. Individually, LeBron James earned the MVP trophy, took home All-Defensive 1st team honors, and averaged 35.3 points in the postseason, but it still wasn’t enough.
Surprisingly, Mike Brown slowed the tempo down even more last season, as Cleveland had the 6th slowest pace factor (88.7) in the NBA. In Brown’s previous two seasons, they posted pace factors of just 90.2 and 90.8, and you wonder what kind of stats LeBron could put up if he played for a fast-paced team.
Still, the Cavs were one of the best defensive teams around, shutting opponents down to just 91.4 points per game, 43.1% FG shooting, and 33.3% 3P shooting (league-best in all categories). They were also one of the more efficient offensive teams, averaging 112.4 points per 100 possessions (4th) while making 39.3% of their 3-point shots (2nd).
MANAGEMENT
Main Owner: Dan Gilbert
General Manager: Danny Ferry
Head Coach: Mike Brown
As a 23-year old, Gilbert became CEO and Chairman of Rock Financial, a mortgage company that he started with his brother and some friends. 14 years later, his company was purchased by Intuit, the company that makes TurboTax and QuickBooks. He’s still the CEO, and his basketball team has LeBron James on it. Not a bad gig. If you want to read his “Solution to the Housing Crisis,” then click here.
For more on Danny Ferry, see here.
Mike Brown isn’t a “great” coach per se, but he’s obviously doing something right, because the Cavs always seem to win and have great team chemistry. Of course, it must be nice to have a default plan named LeBron, and the addition of the Big Aristotle is only going to make things easier for coach Brown. He won’t be considered “great” until he wins at least one NBA title, but he certainly has the pieces and potential to do so. I would like to see him speed up the game a little bit more, but I guess that’s not his style.
OFFSEASON MOVES
Key Additions: Shaquille O’Neal, Anthony Parker, Jamario Moon, Leon Powe, Danny Green
Key Losses: Ben Wallace, Wally Szczerbiak, Sasha Pavlovic, Joe Smith
Right before the NBA Draft (and not long after losing in the NBA Finals), Cleveland made headlines by sending Ben Wallace, Sasha Pavlovic, and a 2nd round pick to Phoenix for one of the greatest players ever, Shaquille O’Neal. When you factor in his low-post scoring ability, his excellent passing skills, his size and strength to defend Dwight Howard, his leadership abilities and postseason experience, his fun-loving attitude, his expiring contract, and the fact that Cleveland gave up very little to get him, it was a win-win move for the Cavs.
However, Cleveland’s biggest weakness against the Magic was their inability to defend Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis, both tall and versatile offensive-minded players. First, they let Wally go and replaced him with Anthony Parker, an excellent shooter and superior defender. Next, they signed Jamario Moon to a 3-year deal to replace the inconsistent Pavlovic. I love this pickup for the Cavs, as Jamario is very long (nearly a 7-foot wingspan), is one of the best leapers in the league, and is capable of playing superb defense. The moves didn’t end there, as Cleveland also replaced the aging Joe Smith with the talented Leon Powe. The former Celtic tore his ACL and meniscus in the playoffs (the 3rd major knee injury of his young career), but if he recovers, he’ll give them another strong post player with postseason experience.
In the draft itself, the Cavs continued to bolster their swingman depth, selecting the Congo-born Spanish League player Christian Eyenga #30 overall, and the UNC-bred Danny Green #46 overall. Eyenga is still very raw, so don’t expect anything from him anytime soon. On the other hand, Green could contribute as a rookie, as he has oodles and oodles of experience (North Carolina’s all-time leader in games played), is a terrific perimeter defender (has a 6′10 wingspan), and can knock down outside shots. They also gave Phoenix some cash for the rights to Slovenian forward Emir Preldzic, a 6′9 point-forward type of player.
Cleveland also retained the services of Anderson Varejao, but it cost them $50 million over 6 years to do so. That’s a LOT of money to give a role player, but if it helps them re-sign #23, then it will be hard to argue with the end result. Of course, there’s no guarantee that James will stay in Cleveland, which is why this section will be a lot more interesting a year from now…
DEPTH CHART
PG: Mo Williams / Daniel Gibson
SG: Anthony Parker / Delonte West / Danny Green
SF: LeBron James / Jamario Moon / Jawad Williams
PF: Anderson Varejao / J.J. Hickson / Leon Powe / Darnell Jackson
C: Shaquille O’Neal / Zydrunas Ilgauskas
ROTATION / PLAYING TIME
At small forward, LeBron used to be a lock for 40+ minutes every game. But last season, he averaged a career-low 37.7 mpg, as Cleveland could afford to rest him more often. I’m expecting more of the same in ‘09-10, so don’t be surprised if LBJ’s minutes fall to 37.5. Moon is the new backup small forward, and I’m projecting him to get 10 minutes in PLACE of LeBron, and 10 minutes alongside LeBron (pushing Bron-Bron to power forward where his massive body belongs), so around 20 mpg total.
Last season, Varejao averaged 32.8 mpg in 41 starts, but just 24.4 mpg in 39 games off the bench. In my opinion, they didn’t give Sideshow V $50 million to sit on the bench, so I’m projecting him to start EVERY game at power forward while averaging close to 30 minutes per. Since Bron is gonna spend around 10 minutes per game at power forward, there aren’t as many backup “4″ minutes as usual. If Leon Powe was 100% healthy, he would get most of those minutes, but there are still serious question marks about his health. So to start the season, I’m predicting Hickson to get 10-12 minutes off the bench as Powe slowly works his way back.
At center, the Cavs now have one of the most formidable duos around. Combined, Shaq and Big Z have 28 years of NBA experience, they’ve scored 37,761 points, pulled down 18,125 boards, blocked 3,847 shots, made 17 All-Star teams (2 for Big Z), and won 4 NBA titles (all by you know who). When both players are healthy, I’m predicting a 28/23 split, with Shaq getting more of the minutes and both 7-footers playing on the floor TOGETHER for a “must-see” 2-3 minutes sometimes. However, there’s a good chance that Shaq will miss a chunk or two of games to stay fresh (altho his conditioning improved greatly when he was in Phoenix), so Big Z is likely to be averaging over 25 mpg when it’s all said and done.
Last year, Mo Williams averaged 35.0 mpg in the regular season, but his minutes went up in the 2nd half and postseason, so mark him down for 36 mpg in ‘09-10. On the flipside, Daniel Gibson averaged 23.9 mpg in the regular season, but just 12.3 minutes in the postseason. For ‘09-10, I’m projecting 12-14 minutes for him as Mo’s backup, but nothing more. In fact, if Gibson doesn’t produce, he could even lose those backup point guard minutes to the guys below.
Preseason Battle to Watch: West vs. Parker
West averaged 33.6 mpg last season as Cleveland’s starting shooting guard, while Parker averaged 33.0 mpg last season as TORONTO’s starting shooting guard. Both players are very skilled, and both are capable of sliding over to point guard in a pinch. Right now, I’m projecting Parker to start and play 25-27 minutes, while West comes off the bench to get 27-29 minutes. Since Delonte has more experience in Cleveland’s system and is better at creating shots for himself and others, he seems better suited to come off the bench. However, the man I would love to refer to as wiyyaah haanguuuhh is simply too talented, which is why I’m projecting more minutes for Delonte. Of course, this playing time battle is likely to fluctuate during the season depending on matchups, injuries, shooting streaks, and the play of Daniel Gibson & Danny Green, so keep an eye on these guys.
Odd Man Out: Darnell Jackson
Since he wouldn’t have gotten a mention otherwise, I’ll talk about Jackson. The former Kansas star averaged 8.4 minutes in 51 games as a rookie, but I’m not expecting any more run for him in ‘09-10. First of all, the 7.3 rebounds per 36 minutes that he pulled down last year was pretty weaksauce. He also shot just 15-39 (38.5%) from the field in summer league action, suggesting that he’s still not ready to contribute. With Varejao and Big Z still holding it down, Shaq and Powe now in the mix, and Hickson being a much better prospect, there simply won’t be any playing time left for Jackson.
DON’T SLEEP ON: Anderson Varejao
Varejao still isn’t much of a scorer, but he’s become much more efficient on that end of the floor, making 53.6% of his field goals last season after shooting just 46.1% FG and 47.6% FG in the two seasons prior. He also posted a career-best in blocked shots last year with .8 per game. I already mentioned his 41 starts from last season, but to get more accurate stat projections, we must examine his split stats more closely. Varejao actually started 16 games at center, but that was when Big Z was out and Shaq was not around. As a result, Anderson had to play more minutes in those games, and he clearly focused more on being an inside scoring threat than he did on rebounding (and his FG% suffered as a result).
So by strictly looking at the games in which he started at power forward (where I expect him to play in 2009-10), I believe we get the best idea of what Varejao is capable of right now: 31.8 minutes, 9.4 points, 8.0 rebounds, 1.16 steals, .92 blocks, .9 turnovers, 56.5% FG, and 59.5% FT shooting. OK, so the points are below average and the free throw shooting still sucks, but the rest of those numbers are rock solid. My 2009-10 stat projections for Varejao are slightly lower because 29.8 minutes seems more realistic than 31.8, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he put up the line above. And while he isn’t a big-time shot-blocker, did you know that Varejao and Rasheed Wallace were the only players in the league last year to average over 7 rebounds and .9 steals while turning the ball over less than 1 time per game?
A lot of people are expecting Shaq’s arrival to hurt Sideshow V, but I see the opposite happening. Offensively, I picture Shaq posting up down low and muscling his way in for a potential layup/dunk, then an extra defender coming over to help, then Varejao cutting to the hoop for a layup/dunk of his own (don’t forget about Shaq’s excellent court vision and willingness to pass the ball). Defensively, I picture Shaq using his iron-plated body to box his man out, so Anderson and others can swoop in for rebounds. Of course, O’Neal will still inhale plenty of rebounds himself, but I think Varejao has a decent shot of leading this team in rebounds in 2009-2010. Last year, Shaq, LeBron, and Big Z all pulled down more rebounds per game, but Varejao could actually leapfrog ALL THREE in the coming season. I guess it’s time for a POLL!
Who will lead the Cavs in Rebounds per game in 2009-2010?
- Shaq (8.4 last season) (63%, 293 Votes)
- LeBron (7.6 last season) (18%, 82 Votes)
- Varejao (7.2 last season) (17%, 81 Votes)
- Big Z (7.5 last season) (2%, 10 Votes)
Total Voters: 466
Loading ...FYI: When I make bold predictions, I have no problem standing by them. So if you disagree with my assessment of Varejao, and you’re certain that he WON’T lead the Cavs in rebounding in ‘09-10, then just give me 5-to-1 odds, and I’ll throw a twenty spot on that no problem.
BE CAREFUL OF: Zydrunas Ilgauskas
How long has Ilgauskas been Cleveland’s starting center? Well, the last time he came off the bench was March 20th, 2002, and he’s played 545 regular season games since then. Unfortunately, that streak may have already come to an end, as Shaquille is likely to be the opening night starter. As a result, Big Z’s minutes are sure to go down, and unless/until Shaq gets hurt, Z will have trouble being a reliable fantasy starter.
Last season, the large Lithuanian averaged a respectble 12.9 points, 7.5 boards, 1.3 blocks, and 2.7 free throw attempts on 80% FT shooting. In ‘09-10, I see those numbers falling BELOW 12.0 points, 7.0 boards, 1.2 blocks, and 2.5 free throw attempts per game. While there’s only a slight difference in those two sets of numbers, the sum of their fantasy parts is much less valuable in the latter set of stats. What does this mean? Barring a major injury to Shaq, Big Z is no longer be a Top 20 fantasy center.
Prospect to Keep an Eye on: J.J. Hickson
Hickson was drafted out of North Carolina State, where he averaged 14.8 points, 8.5 boards, and 1.5 blocks in just 28.7 minutes in his only season there. Despite being a 20-year old rookie, Hickson played in 62 games last year, averaging a mere 4.0 points and 2.7 rebounds in 11.4 minutes of action. He rarely got extended playing time, but in the 5 games where he played 24+ minutes, he put up these solid averages: 27.0 minutes, 11.4 points, 7.4 rebounds, 1.6 blocks, and 53.5% FG.
J.J. is a very explosive athlete, he has the strength to absorb contact and still finish, he has great hands and a very long wingspan, and if he can develop a consistent mid-range jumper, then he’s going to have a long and successful NBA career. If you don’t believe all that, then just watch this highlight video and tell me that Hickson doesn’t have Brandon Bass/Jason Maxiell type of BEASTLINESS. Did you see LeBron’s face?!?
Most Likely to Miss 20+ Games: Shaquille O’Neal
Of course it’s the Diesel. He had no problem staying healthy when he first came into the league (he missed just 5 games total in his first 3 seasons), but ever since then, his health has been an issue. In fact, over his last 14 years, Shaq has missed an average of 17.1 games per season. Of course, he’s usually healthy come playoff time, but his fantasy owners have never been able to take solace in that. One could even say that he’s been able to take regular season rest breaks whenever he wants. It’s like he’s the lifeguard at a swimming pool and all he needs to do is blow his whistle, and then he automatically gets a “rest period” to eat, sleep, etc.
One reason for optimism is the fact that Shaq played 75 games last year, his highest total since the 1999-2000 season. He gave a lot of credit to Phoenix’s strength and conditioning/medical staff, and when you consider how healthy old-timers like Steve Nash and Grant Hill have been lately, you have to give the Suns some credit there as well. However, now he’s playing with LeBron James on a team that won 66 games last year, and Mike Brown is known a “player’s coach,” so Shaq could easily pull the “rest break” card whenever he wants to, in order to stay fresh for the postseason.
Most Likely to Put Up Big Stats After an Injury: Delonte West
Whenever Delonte gets big minutes, he usually stuffs the stat sheet. If you don’t believe me, just look at his career stats per 36 minutes: 12.7 points, 3.9 rebounds, 4.7 assists, 1.4 steals, .5 blocks, 1.3 threes, 44.7% FG, 37.8% 3P, and 82.1% FT. The points aren’t that special, but the rest of those numbers are rock solid for a combo guard. And his .20 blocks per game from last season was a career-low, so don’t be surprised if that stat goes up a bit. At the moment, West is going to be in a heated battle with Parker, and his overall numbers will likely suffer as a result. However, if Parker, Williams, Gibson, or Moon were to get injured, Delonte would go back to playing 30+ minutes and being a reliable fantasy starter.
PLAYER PROFILES / RANKING POTENTIAL
LeBron James
You know that he’s always going to have monster boxscores, but LeBron really improved his fantasy value last year by shooting a rock solid 48.9% FG, 34.4% 3P, and (most surprisingly) 78.0% FT. It’s quite possible that those shooting percentages will continue to climb up to say: 50% FG, 36% 3P, and 80% FT, at which point he would probably overtake Chris Paul as the #1 fantasy player in every format. However, would it surprise anyone if his free throw shooting slid back to under 76%? Since the guy attempts 9-10 freebies every game, his FT% is key. He could easily put up the best statistics, but Chris Paul is still the safer pick in most leagues.
Lock For: Top 4
Good Shot At: Top 2
Potential For: #1 overall
Mo Williams
If there’s someone trying to decide whether to live in Milwaukee or Cleveland, just ask Mo Williams for his opinion. After going 124-204 (.378) in 4 years with the Bucks, Mo joined the Cavs and went 66-16 (.805) in his 1st year there. He made the All-Star team, he finished 3rd with 183 made threes, and he became LeBron James’ sidekick. Now he’s “Fog Raw” sucka! Mo actually makes the old school mobile phone and the greasiest jheri curl around look pretty smooth, and that’s how I’d describe his game. Not a ton of assists due to LeBron, but his turnovers are low as a result, and his made threes, 3P% and FT% categories are excellent. He’s going to get even MORE open looks with Shaq commanding attention, and if he could bump his steals per game up from .9 to 1.3 (what he averaged in ‘06-07), then he’d have Top 35 potential.
Lock For: Top 65
Good Shot At: Top 50
Potential For: Top 35
Shaquille O’Neal
Obviously, how many games he plays will be a major factor in deciding his final season fantasy ranking. He put up excellent numbers last year, but those are bound to decline, so don’t even think about using a Top 120 pick on him. The last time he averaged more assists than turnovers was nearly a decade ago, but he could come close to that playing with LeBron and company. As always, you should only draft Shaq if you’re punting FT% or if you’re in a points-based league.
Lock For: Top 180
Good Shot At: Top 140
Potential For: Top 100
Anderson Varejao
See above.
Lock For: Top 180
Good Shot At: Top 150
Potential For: Top 120
Delonte West
See above.
Lock For: Top 200
Good Shot At: Top 160
Potential For: Top 120
Zydrunas Ilgauskas
See above.
Lock For: Top 215
Good Shot At: Top 175
Potential For: Top 135
Anthony Parker
After Big Z, Parker would be my 2nd Cavs player to “be careful of.” He’s going to make plenty of threes playing for Cleveland, but his minutes are going to fall below 30 for the first time since ‘99-00 (his first stint in the NBA). He was a decent source of steals and assists last year, but those numbers are likely to plummet. Also, his 83% FT shooting isn’t as helpful as you’d think because he rarely gets to the line. Draft him as a 3-point specialist and nothing more.
Lock For: Top 240
Good Shot At: Top 200
Potential For: Top 160
Jamario Moon
Why do I get the feeling that Moon and LeBron are going to become good friends right away? Well, LeBron is used to being on the receiving end of alley-oops, but now he has a high-flying partner-in-crime to run with. Expect LBJ to throw plenty of sick lobs to Moon this year (and a few to Shaq as well), as they’ll definitely be one of the most exciting forward duos to watch. Unfortunately, Moon won’t get the 28+ minutes that he needs to be a consistent fantasy producer. He’s still a nice source of steals, blocks, and threes sans turnovers, but only in deeper leagues.
Lock For: Nothing
Good Shot At: Top 250
Potential For: Top 200
EVIL’S PREDICTIONS
Projected Record: 68-14
Projected Finish: 1st in Division, 1st in Conference
Crunch Time Lineup: Williams, Parker, LeBron, Varejao, Shaq
+/- Curveball Lineup: Williams, West, Moon, LeBron, Varejao
Pleasant Surprise: Shaq, Moon, and Parker adjust easily to their new team, both on and off the court. Varejao takes another step forward and really flourishes alongside O’Neal. Everyone forgets about Leon Powe, but he works his way back, earns a spot on Cleveland’s playoff roster, and makes an impact in the playoffs.
Biggest Disappointment: Gibson struggles to shoot over 40% from the field again, blaming it on a lack of consistent minutes. By the time the playoffs start, he’ll be out of Brown’s rotation, and we won’t get to WITNESS any of that 2007 Eastern Finals game 6 magic.
Bold Prediction: LeBron will shoot just 77% from the line, but he’ll improve his FG%, 3P%, and assists, edging out CP3 for fantasy MVP honors. Surprisingly, Mike Brown will finally speed up the tempo a bit (only slightly), resulting in more fast break buckets and a few more points per game. With Shaq and Moon in the mix, the Cavs will easily become one of the Top 3 Dunking Teams in the league.
Despite the Lakers and Celtics winning the last two championships, it’s the Cavs who will be the most intimidating team in the league. They’re going to blow a lot of teams out again, and they’re going to wear many opponents down thru sheer physicality. They’ll come close to winning 70 games, but they’ll fall a couple wins short and settle for having the best regular season record once again. Their offseason additions will not only help them beat Orlando and Boston, but the Lakers, Spurs, and whoever else as well. LeBron will get his 1st ring and be named Finals MVP, but Shaq will have several monster games in the postseason to prove that he’s still a dominant force as well. Unfortunately, Cleveland fans won’t be celebrating for very long, because LeBron will later announce that he’s going to sign a new contract with the New Jersey soon-to-be Brooklyn Nets.
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*This Cleveland Cavaliers team preview was published by Eric Wong of RotoEvil.com on August 18th, 2009. If you enjoyed reading it, please bookmark the site and check out the other free team previews.
If you want to get ALL of the team previews (including updates to this one), stat projections & analysis for 360+ players, in-depth sleeper & strategy articles, and the best draft ratings, player rankings, tiers, and cheatsheets around, then stay tuned for his 2009-2010 Fantasy Basketball Draft Guide. Join hundreds of satisfied customers, and you’ll get everything you need to win your fantasy hoops league.
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Good stuff E! Nice prediction
So much info in these previews. I get overwhelmed sometimes. Im reading the a paragraph but thinking about the previous section. Then I must reread certain parts. To get the full effect. For those of you reading 2 or 3 previews at a time. Wow!!! Cavs then Wizards then Thunder then Portland then….upcoming Golden State. U-weeee!!!
My bold prediction is Shaq and Big Z will be healthy all season.
Cavs lose to Lakers in Finals!!!!!!!!
Your curveball lineup is wacky.
Varajao, Moon, Bron, Mau and West.
My wacky lineup is Lebron at point, Parker, Moon, Big Z and Shaq. This lineup will surprise people.
Their isnt a matchup Cleveland cannot counter their depth with. You name it they have got it.
Clevelands versatility will be very underrated going into the season.
Aren’t curveballs wacky by nature? I like your wacky lineup as well. I can’t wait to see both Shaq & Z together and Bron & Moon together. May as well throw all 4 on the floor with Parker or any of their guards really. VERSATILE for sure.
Classic Bay Area rap song:
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Khayree beats from the early-to-mid 90’s are some of the best EVER. If you don’t know, now you know…
I think we could see E’s curveball line-up play extensive minutes against certain (faster) opponents.
Good article on the cavs E! Gotta be honest though…I’m not feelin Lebron and big aristotle…at least not now. I can’t see the cavs speeding up the tempo with shaq that didn’t work out so well in phoenix I recall. Mike brown is a nice guy a “players coach” he’s not a great coach either, but that guy named Lebron James makes him look real good. And shaq is very outspoken can he share the spotlight with Lebron and nice guy coach brown? Shaq and an uptempo team at his age and with his injury history…
Now Lebron, moon and the very underrated parker that’s a lot of versatility there. Shaq and big Z …that’s an advantage, for the other team, if they change the tempo or it could work well for the cavs. This trade has some questions imo but I must admit it looks good on paper and they pretty much got shaq for nothing.
What you have here is an excellent looking NBA roster, with lots of movable parts to play different ways. Of course, that usually creates headaches in the fantasy world as they leech fantasy production from each other. I suspect there will be a lot of variation in the game-to-game minutes of guys like West, Moon and Parker. They will all be worth playing some games, and not others…and it may be hard to predict, knocking down each of their values further IMO.
I agree that Lebron could see a small drop in minutes (even more so than the 0.2 drop you suggested). I believe there were times last year where Mike Brown pulled him out with a healthy 4th quarter lead…only to have to re-insert him as the other team got back in the game. This year, the Cavs are deeper and less likely to give back big leads.
It will be very interesting to see whether Shaq does clog up the lane for Lebron’s drives….and how the 2 of these guys work together. Also, I think we may be getting a little too excited about Shaq’s prospects given the solid year he had last year….as he sure didn’t look that good the 2 previous years. Sure, he’ll be motivated to win a championship and get 1 more big payday….but he still makes me nervous.
as for Varejao…I agree with what you wrote. He would be a nice late draft grab (partic. in 9 cat leagues) given his potential to contribute in boards/blocks/steals with a solid FG%. He doesn’t really take enough FTs for the crap FT% to be much of a distraction.
something to also consider is that LeBron finally gets a decent matchup in practice to push him, in Moon
his hustle should help to push LeBron even more
LEBRON WILL NEVER LEAVE CLEVELAND!!! No ones loves him the way Cleveland fans love him and if he leaves he wont be able to show his face here ever again. He’s walking in Michael Jordans shoes and he will stay like Jordan stayed in Chicago. Although I dont know if I can see him retiring early to go play for the browns or indians
Winning is starting to matter more to LeBron than anything else so I don’t see him leaving Cleveland. He’s pretty tight with his Coaches and Teammates, not to mention friends. Let’s be honest, when you have LeBron’s money you can visit NYC whenever you like. And he CHOOSES to spend more than half the summer hanging out in Akron…so what does that tell you?
Anyway, enough of this has already been debated, as far as your predictions, as a Cavs fan, I am feeling pretty good about the team too, but I didn’t know if I was letting my fandom get in the way of my expectations. But this team is clearly better on paper than they were last year, their major producers minus Z are all still either on the cusp of their prime years, or (Mo Williams) in their prime years. Also, they have so many different lineups now that they can throw at teams. Their depth is more than just insurance against injuries this year, it also drastically changes the different styles they can play. They can run a slow, methodical, beat you up style with Shaq, Powe, LeBron, Parker, West. They can run you out the gym with a lineup of: Varejao, LeBron, Moon, West, Williams, and they can lock down defensively with a lineup of: Shaq, LeBron, Moon/Green, Parker, West. If they want to shoot you out the gym, they can go: Z, Kurz, LeBron, Parker/Gibson, Williams, and if they want a savvy veteran lineup they can run: Shaq, Z, LeBron, Parker, Williams.
This team is really deep, has many more x-factors, and honestly they improved on both ends of the court, drastically improved their athleticism by adding Moon and Powe, greatly improved their size by adding Shaq, Moon, Parker, and Powe, and really “look” a LOT better than a team that won 66 games.
It’s hard for me NOT to see them doing REALLY well, although it IS a Cleveland team after all…
“Winning is starting to matter more to LeBron than anything else so I don’t see him leaving Cleveland.”
And you don’t think a trio of LeBron, Devin Harris, and Brook Lopez would win A LOT of games?
Adding to the lineups:
They can go big with: Shaq(7′1″), Varejao(6′11″), Moon(6′9″), LeBron(6′9″), Parker(6′6″)
or small with: Varejao(6′11″), LeBron (6′9″), Parker (6′6″), West (6′3″), Williams (6′2″)
The all DUNK team will obviously be: Shaq, Hickson, Moon, LeBron, West
I think Lebron leads the team in rebounds this year. I’m not going 5-1 on it, I just think he will.
You’re crazy if you think they are winning it all let alone coming out of the east. Whoever Shaq guards that person will put up big numbers and don’t even get me started on Shaq’s pick and roll defense. If they face Celtics Rasheed and KG will bury wide open jumpers all day long. Orlando can beat Cavs too. LBJ is not a “closer”. This team still has no #2 or #3 options behind LBJ in the playoffs.
I’M crazy? You’re the one who sounds like Tommy Heinsohn!
Vivek is 100% sure that the Cavs won’t win the East. Messer is 100% sure that LeBRon will never leave Cleveland.
And yet, is either man willing to bet on those things???
At the low end of your projections, you have 248.5 minutes logged a game. There is only 240 to go around. And, this is giving nothing to Powe…
LeBron: “I’m expecting more of the same in ‘09-10, so don’t be surprised if LBJ’s minutes fall to 37.5.”
Moon: “I’m projecting him to get 10 minutes in PLACE of LeBron, and 10 minutes alongside LeBron (pushing Bron-Bron to power forward where his massive body belongs), so around 20 mpg total.”
Varejao: “I’m projecting him to start EVERY game at power forward while averaging close to 30 minutes per.”
Hickson: “So to start the season, I’m predicting Hickson to get 10-12 minutes off the bench”
Shaq/Z: “I’m predicting a 28/23 split”
Mo: “so mark him down for 36 mpg in ‘09-10
Gibson: “I’m projecting 12-14 minutes for him as Mo’s backup
Parker: “I’m projecting Parker to start and play 25-27 minutes
West: “while West comes off the bench to get 27-29 minutes
And what’s your point Steve? That you know how to copy and paste and add? (If I sound like a dick, it’s because I expect more from my readers).
Do you really think that I’m projecting minutes (as well as all the other stat categories) withOUT adding their numbers up in Excel?
And do you not understand the concept of players missing games and other players minutes going up as a result?
Since you don’t seem to be following, let’s use Cleveland’s stats from last year as an example…
As a team, the Cavs averaged 100.3 points and 241.2 minutes (there are Overtime games you know) per game. So if you add up all of their player’s per game averages, they should equal those stats, right? OF COURSE NOT!
To get a clearer picture, let’s ONLY use players who played a total of 500 minutes or more for Cleveland last season. That gives us 10 players, whose per game averages were the following:
NAME MIN PTS
LeBron James 37.7 28.4
Mo Williams 35 17.8
Z. Ilgauskas 27.2 12.9
Delonte West 33.6 11.7
A. Varejao 28.5 8.6
Daniel Gibson 23.9 7.8
W. Szczerbiak 20.6 7
Sasha Pavlovic 16 4.6
J.J. Hickson 11.4 4
Ben Wallace 23.5 2.9
TOTALS 257.4 105.7
So those totals are about 5-7% greater than the normal team averages, and that did NOT include either Joe Smith (who averaged 19.6 mpg but played just 21 games for the Cavs) or Darnell Jackson (who averaged 8.4 mpg in 51 games).
Players miss games. When they miss a game, THEIR averages stay the same, but the averages for others goes up. Naturally, when you total up player averages at the end of the season, they’re going to be greater than the actual team averages. Does that make more sense to you now?
I don’t claim to make perfect stat projections, but I’ve been doing my own projections for many years now, I try to consider every possible factor that I can, and I believe I’ve gotten pretty good at it. If you still don’t agree with my methods, then perhaps you should look elsewhere.
hahahaha yes evil, u torched him big there
It’s funny how LBJ and Shaq are both players that are lucky and born with “GOD GIVEN TALENT and SIZE.” While players like Nash, Kobe, Duncan and Wade work hard to be where they are.
AND YES E,
I will bet you money that Cavs will not win it this year.
Yes, we all know that Nash, Kobe, Duncan, and Wade were NOT blessed with talent and size, and that Shaq and LeBron did NOT have to work hard to get where they are.
Can someone please shake some sense into Vivek for me?
Anyway, current odds on the Cavs winning it all are 3.5 to 1. Considering that you’re calling me crazy, you’re saying “LeBron is not a closer,” and that they don’t even have a chance to win the East, then you should have no problem bumping those odds up to 5-to-1 for me, right?
Evil – good write up. I completely agree with the bigs and the wingmen rotations and minute breakdowns. However, you don’t feel that if Gibson looks off in preseason/start of season that he’d lose those 10-12 minutes to Delonte? It’d make sense to rotate West to PG (from SG) when Parker would come back into the game and give Mo his first rest.
Thanks Red.
That’s certainly possible that Gibson could be bounced out of the rotation right away, but I’m guessing that coach Brown will at least give him a chance to play his way in.
For certain players (like Boobie), confidence is key, and if you kick someone out of the rotation early on, it makes it even harder for them to make an impact later on.
GOOD ARTICLE!
Dude, I love that you’re backing up your bold prediction!
Danny Ferry has blown it again.
Someone help me out here because I’m willing to keep an open mind, but barely. How can you justify signing both Jamario Moon and Anthony Parker to two year deals, when by doing so you have GUARANTEED that in the summer of 2010, Cleveland will be unable to offer max dollars to a second marquee free agent? Why are Cleveland fans not calling for Danny Ferry’s resignation?
Do I think adding Parker and Moon makes the Cavs a better team in 2009-10? Yes I do, it makes them marginally better. Last year they went 66-16, this article is prognosticating along the lines of 68-14. But are Parker and Moon good enough players to justify jeopardizing the capacity to land a Bosh or a Wade in 2010? Absolutely not. Not by a longshot. Myopia times infinity.
For all of the talk about how the Magic were just a bad matchup for the Cavs in last year’s ECF, what is underreported is the simple truth that the Cleveland Cavaliers choked. I can’t view it by any other way. When you go 39-2 at home, and blow a 15 point lead in game 1 at home, then you have choked. And you could sense it was about to happen. It wasn’t the Cavs fault that Detroit didn’t show up and Cleveland began to feel that they were better than they were. It didn’t help matters that Atlanta wasn’t at full strength and the Cavs once again ran roughshod over an opponent. But at 60-48 as the first half to game 1 of the ECF was about to come to a close, Mo Williams drains a 60 footer. And that was it. The Cavs began to felt like they could walk on water. They didn’t know how to handle it when a team actually didn’t fall down after getting down big, and the Magic fought back and the rest is history.
The Shaq deal was great, although it was about 4 months late. But better late than never. But then Ferry decides to get cute at the end of the first round and contradicts the “win now at all costs” mantra by drafting Christian Eyenga who will not be coming to the states at least for another year. You don’t do such a stupid move, not with proven guys like Dejuan Blair and Sam Young and Chase Budinger and Jodie Meeks available. Some of those guys will be starting for their teams this year, and Ferry blew it.
Ferry was able to lure in Powe with the first year guaranteed, the second year not guaranteed. If this wouldn’t have worked with Moon and/or Parker, I would have said thanks but no thanks. Do your homework and find guys who could still contribute something but would be willing to come aboard for 1 year deals at the veteran minimum to strengthen your bench(such as, a former teammate of Shaq’s on the 2006 championship Heat team that was second on the team in scoring for the NBA finals!). Lebron has already come out and said recently that his loyalty is to Akron, NOT CLEVELAND!!! How on earth does Lebron stick around if Ferry won’t have the cash next summer to sign another star??? Moon and Parker were not worth it!!! They could still be a championship contender in 2009-10 without those guys and still retained the necessary cap space for summer 2010.
In conclusion, the long and short of it is, Danny Ferry can kiss Lebron James goodbye. This will be his legacy as Cavs GM. I agree with the Brooklyn Nets possibility, gotta love the young core there with Devin Harris, Courtney Lee, Terrence Williams, Yi Jianlian and Brook Lopez.
Once the salary cap figure for this year came in at $57.7M, with little chance of going higher for next summer, Danny Ferry had to see that there was no chance to sign a super free-agent in the summer of 2010. Let’s assume the salary cap for the next season will be $58 million – about the same as this year, and perhaps a generous estimate since Basketball Related Income shouldn’t increase. Here’s what Cleveland’s cap situation would be for next summer, assuming O’Neal and Ilgauskas are completely renounced and thus have no cap holds, all cap exceptions are renounced, and they never signed Parker and Moon.
Players under contract:
Mo Williams – $9,300,000
Anderson Varejao – $7,000,000
Delonte West – $4,658,500
Daniel Gibson – $4,015,000
JJ Hickson – $1,528,920 (assume his option picked up)
Darnell Jackson – $854,389.
Just those six players = $27,356,809
LeBron’s cap hold will be the max salary for a 7 year player, which will be 30% of the salary cap of $58M = $17,400,000. Now you’re at $44,756,809.
Let’s be generous and say Cleveland picks #30 in next summer’s draft. That’s a cap hold of about $851,000. $45,607,809.
That’s 8 spots on the roster; you have to have 12 in the offseason, so they have roster holds of 4 rookie minimums, which next summer will be $473,604 ïƒ $1,894,416 $47,502,225.
From a $58M salary cap, that leaves $10,497,775 to sign a free agent(s), plus you’ve renounced your Mid-level and Bi-Annual exceptions. (Forgive me if my math is wrong or off, but this is my rough estimate of Cleveland’s cap next year assuming I’m reading Larry Coon’s rules right.) No way in H-E-upside-down 7’s that Bosh or Wade leaves for that number, and that roster has a couple of holes anyways (since Parker and Moon aren’t there).
Ferry signed Parker and Moon so they can win this year, and even next year their salaries (totaling $5,825,770) are quite tradable if need be. I can’t blame Ferry for signing them because he has to 1) win this year, 2) keep LeBron, and 3) have a semblance of a roster the next few years. Parker and Moon can help on all three levels. Now if you want to get on him for paying Varejao all that money now and through 2014, go right ahead.
Cleveland has LBJ’s Bird rights, so technically they could sign a max FA next summer and fill out the rest of their roster BEFORE they working Lebron and re-uping his deal… Their is no rule or order that says you have to re-sign your own players BEFORE you can pursue others or use your capsace…
Im a Magic fan so I want Cleveland to be as bad as possible, but I think they will be able to sign another max contract guy next summer. The main issue I think will be whether or not LeBron wants to stay in CLE, and if so, can they convinced FA’s that LBJ will be staying… Cleveland isnt the most amusing market, so I dont think any max player w/ options would want to go their if LBJ isnt already committed… Last thing any FA would want is to be the victim(Like BD) if LBJ pulls an Elton Brand, and then they’re sitting there stuck in Cleveland when they could’ve been in a better, more appealing market like NJ/NY/MIA or wherever for the same money….
From Larry Coon’s NBA Salary Cap FAQ:
29. Can a team sign all the free agents it wants (up to the cap limit) and THEN re-sign its own free agents using the Bird exception?
Yes, but there’s a restriction. A team’s free agents continue to count as team salary (against the salary cap). This charge is called the “free agent amount.” So there may not be enough money under the cap to sign another team’s free agent, because the team’s own free agents are taking up all their cap room.
That’s why I said above “LeBron’s cap hold”. If there wasn’t this rule, you would have seen free agents moving all over the place in the last few years.
Cleveland not amusing? Cedar Point, the Roller Coaster Capital of the World, is in Sandusky, only an hour west. Also, there are 2 Cheesecake Factories in the Cleveland area, so this is and should be an NBA mecca.
Doneycat,
Cedar Point is awesome. No argument there. Millennium Force is a powerhouse of a ride. Unfortunately for Cavs fans though, is that Lebron has stated that his loyalty is to Akron, not to Cleveland or Sandusky. And for the record, I have eaten at a Cheesecake Factory in Cleveland off of Cedar Road! I’ll have to find the other one next time I’m in town.
http://www.realgm.com/src_wiretap_archives/60948/20090803/cavs_cant_sign_two_major_free_agents_in_2010/
I admire your knowledge and reference to the NBA salary cap rules, but the ONLY shot Cleveland has at retaining Lebron James is to add a player of star caliber such as Chris Bosh. Other media outlets besides the one above have also reported that Cleveland will be unable to sign a second FA to a max deal next summer due to these recent signings. Cleveland has to do EVERYTHING right to keep Lebron. In my view, Lebron would bolt Cleveland for NY or Brooklyn even if those teams can’t add a Bosh or Wade or Amare either.
If I were Ferry, if the ONLY way to add Bosh next summer and also keep Lebron would mean that I couldn’t resign Varejao and would have to pass on both Moon and Parker, then I would do just that. To be successful in 2010-11 and beyond, Lebron, Bosh, Mo Williams and Delonte West is a solid core. Even if your remaining 9 players aren’t the greatest, you still have a lot of talent at the top like the 08 Celtics had. Then you can round out the roster with a bunch of 1 year deals for veteran minimums. Instead of the Eyenga draft pick, Ferry could have added Dejuan Blair to complement J.J. Hickson at the 4 spot for the upcoming season, taken a chance on veterans like Antoine Walker or Michael Sweetney who would jump at the chance at making a comeback for the league minimum, and still have enough there to have a shot at playing well into June.
Point is, I’ll confess that I’m not up to speed on how exactly all of the numbers work out, but if Ferry wanted to, he could have set himself up to be able to sign Lebron AND a second FA this summer to max money. He decided not to, and that will guarantee Lebron’s exit.
My oh my Delonte. Did y’all see this?
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=4485441
UPPER MARLBORO, Md. — Cleveland Cavaliers guard Delonte West was arrested Thursday after officers pulled him over for speeding on a motorcycle while carrying two handguns and a shotgun in a guitar case.
Prince George’s County police spokeswoman Sgt. Michelle Reedy said Friday the Cleveland Cavaliers player was arrested about 10 p.m. Thursday.
Reedy said West was riding a Can-Am Spyder motorcycle north on the Capital Beltway in Upper Marlboro when he cut off an officer, who pulled him over.
Police said a handgun was found in his pocket, another in his pant leg and a shotgun in a guitar case strapped to his back.
The 26-year-old West, who lives in Brandywine, was charged with speeding and weapons counts. Reedy said West was released on his own recognizance early Friday.
Cavaliers general manager Danny Ferry said the team was aware of the situation.
“We have been in communication with Delonte and his family,” Ferry said in a statement. “We are gathering more information and will not have further comment until the appropriate time.”
Who does this fool think he is???
Charles Barkley circa 1988??
What a story. I hope for him he gets the help he clearly needs.
For fantasy draft I’m not using a higher than late round pick on him. Besides the risk Delonte also has more (indirect) competition for playing time I would think with Parker and Moon.
What’s the story on Barkley then?
Barkley was arrested in 1988 for possession of a firearm.
I an staying away from West altogether. Don’t think there will be a lot of PT for him this year and he has not flourished in CLE
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