2009-2010 Team Preview: Oklahoma City Thunder
August 7, 2009 by Evil E
How close is Durant to being a Top 3 fantasy player?
LAST SEASON
The Thunder got off to a miserable start under the guidance of P.J. Carlesimo, posting a 1-12 record while averaging a meager 88.9 points per game to start the season. As a result, P.J. was promptly fired and replaced by 1st year coach Scott Brooks.
Immediately, Brooks made a couple of lineup changes that paid both short-term and long-term dividends (moving Kevin Durant from shooting guard to small forward and inserting Russell Westbrook into the starting lineup). Oklahoma City played much better after the coaching change, posting a 22-47 record while averaging 98.5 points per game the rest of the way. More importantly, their young trio of Durant, Westbrook, and Jeff Green blossomed because they were allowed to play through their mistakes.
For the season, OKC ranked 8th in pace factor (93.6), 8th in free throws made (19.8 per game), and 4th in offensive rebounds (12.2 per game), but they had several glaring weaknesses.
The Thunder committed more turnovers (16.2 per game) than any other team, and despite their uptempo style of play, their offensive rating (102.9 points scored per 100 possessions) ranked 29th overall (only the Clippers were worse), showing how inefficient they were offensively. Much of their problem lies from beyond the perimeter, as they were dead last in 3-pointers made (4.0 per game), 3-pointers attempted (949 attempts for the season, compared to 2,284 for the Knicks and 2,147 for the Magic), and Effective Field Goal Percentage (47.1%, calculated as [FGM + .5 x 3P] / FGA). Quite simply, outside shooting has been a major weakness for them ever since they lost Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis (in ‘07-08, they were 28th in 3P%, 29th in threes made, and 30th in threes attempted).
MANAGEMENT
Main Owner: Clay Bennett
General Manager: Sam Presti
Head Coach: Scott Brooks
In the mid-90’s, Bennett was one of the principal owners of the San Antonio Spurs. After Hurricane Katrina, he partnered up with a couple of Energy Corporations and the state of Oklahoma to provide a revenue guarantee to help relocate the Hornets to Oklahoma City. In 2006, his company (the Professional Basketball Club LLC) purchased the Seattle Sonics organization from Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz for a cool $350 million. Bennett took a lot of heat when he decided to move the franchise to Oklahoma City, but the move has paid off thus far. The Thunder ranked 11th in attendance last season, compared to 28th in ‘07-08 and 25th in ‘06-07.
Of course, the real mastermind here is Sam Presti. Presti took over as GM in June of 2007 (at the ripe age of 30), and he wasted no time putting his stamp on the team. He drafted Durant and Westbrook, he traded away fan favorite Ray Allen to land Green, and he’s done an excellent job of stockpiling draft picks and expiring contracts. In my mind, he’s the best GM in basketball, and if you want proof, just consider what happened with Rashard Lewis. When Lewis decided to sign with Orlando for 6 years and $118 million, the Sonics/Thunder could have easily let him walk. Instead, Presti did a sign-and-trade deal, where he managed to weasel a 2nd round pick and a $9 million dollar trade exception from the Magic, which he promptly re-gifted to Phoenix for Kurt Thomas’ expiring contract and 1st round picks in both 2008 and 2010! It’s been just two years and change since Presti took over, but the only player remaining from the ‘06-07 Seattle squad that he inherited is Nick Collison.
It helps that Presti has drafted budding stars who are humble and hardworking, but a lot of credit should also be given to head coach Scotty Brooks. As a senior at U.C. Irvine, Brooks averaged an impressive 23.8 points, 4.0 threes, and 2.4 steals per game, but his role obviously changed when he got to the NBA. Brooks played 10 years in the league, making 287 threes for his career while posting a rock solid 3.6 assist to turnover ratio. He was also a member of Houston’s 1994 NBA Championship team, and he played for some pretty legendary coaches (Rudy Tomjanovich, Dick Motta, Jeff Van Gundy, Mike Fratello), so he knows what it takes to win and he’s accumulated a wealth of coaching knowledge. Brooks wasn’t blessed with Russell Westbrook’s blazing speed and insane vertical leap, but he did an excellent job of nurturing the rookie’s raw abilities last season.
Thanks to Bennett, Presti, and Brooks, the Thunder have clearly emerged as a contender for the future. They’re young and talented, they have a clear vision, and their salary cap situation is one of the best in the league. This team is on the RISE.
OFFSEASON MOVES
Key Additions: James Harden, BJ Mullens, Etan Thomas, Kevin Ollie
Key Losses: Earl Watson, Desmond Mason, Damien Wilkins, Chucky Atkins
With the 3rd pick in the 2009 Draft, Presti decided to address his team’s outside shooting woes by selecting Arizona St. guard James Harden. Last season, Harden averaged 20.1 points and 1.7 threes on 48.9% FG shooting, while also chipping in 4.2 assists and 1.7 steals per game. He made just 35.6% of his 3-point attempts last year, but shot 40.7% from beyond the arc the year before. He’s a very skilled and versatile offensive player, but he must work on his conditioning (10.1% body fat), his ball-handling skills, and his mid-range game. Since he’s a crafty lefty who knows how to score, DraftExpress makes a best-case comparison to Manu Ginobili.
Later in the draft, the Thunder gave up their #25 pick (Rodrigue Beaubois) and a future 2nd rounder to land center prospect B.J. Mullens. The big man averaged just 8.8 points and 4.7 boards in 20.3 minutes in his only year at Ohio St., but he’s got a lot of upside on the offensive end. They also landed Robert Vaden (10th all-time with 379 NCAA threes) in round 2, but they’ve yet to sign him and he may play overseas.
To improve their frontcourt depth, Presti traded Wilkins and Atkins to Minnesota for veteran big man Etan Thomas. Thomas barely played the past two seasons due to open-heart surgery and a torn MCL, but he loves to throw his body around and is Syracuse’s all-time leader in blocked shots (Derrick Coleman and Rony Seikaly are also high on the list). For veteran leadership and point guard depth, the Thunder also signed 36-year old point guard Kevin Ollie to replace Earl Watson, who left for Indiana. Thomas and Ollie are now the only players on the roster over the age of 28 (with a whopping 9 players under the age of 24).
DEPTH CHART
PG: Russell Westbrook / Shaun Livingston / Kevin Ollie
SG: Thabo Sefolosha / James Harden / Kyle Weaver
SF: Kevin Durant / Shaun Livingston
PF: Jeff Green / Etan Thomas / D.J. White / Serge Ibaka
C: Nick Collison / Nenad Krstic / B.J. Mullens
ROTATION / PLAYING TIME
Last season, Durant’s 39.0 mpg ranked 5th in the league, and as the leader of this team, he’ll continue to play around 40 minutes per game. That doesn’t leave much playing time behind him at small forward, but Jeff Green (36.8 mpg last season) is capable of playing both forward spots, and he should get 36-37 minutes once again. At point guard, Westbrook averaged 32.5 mpg as a rookie (34.3 as a starter), so he’s poised to get around 36 mpg in his sophomore season.
OKC has done a fine job of helping Shaun Livingston come back from his gruesome knee injury, and they seem more than willing to give him meaningful backup minutes at both point guard and small forward this year. Mark the lanky passer down for 12-15 mpg off the bench, with the opportunity for much more if Westbrook goes down. Last season, Thabo Sefolosha (31.1 mpg and 22 starts for OKC) played superb defense, and Kyle Weaver (20.8 mpg and 19 starts) also filled in admirably when injuries hit. However, the Thunder have a lot more depth at shooting guard now. To start the season, I’m projecting 22-26 minutes for Thabo, 20-24 minutes for Harden, and 6-8 minutes for Weaver, but if the rookie plays up to his potential, Harden could earn the starting job and be playing 30+ minutes by mid-season.
With Collison, Krstic, and Thomas, the Thunder have 3 veterans who are all capable of providing quality minutes at center. Since Collison has been the most reliable recently, he’ll likely be the opening day starter, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he’s limited to 24 mpg this year. Nenad Krstic actually started 28 games for Oklahoma City last season, but it remains to be seen if he can re-capture the form that he showed before tearing his ACL in December 2006. Right now, I’m going to pencil Krstic in for 22-24 minutes off the bench, but he could start and play 28 mpg or more if he shows improvement and his shot is falling.
The wild card here is Etan Thomas. He didn’t play well in ‘08-09 and he didn’t play at all in ‘07-08, but he used to be a reliable backup, and he’s a much better shot-blocker than either Collison or Krstic. If he’s healthy I’ll project 14-18 mpg, but that number could rise steadily if he makes an impact defensively. The Thunder also have 3 young bigs who will battle for garbage time. Both Ibaka and Mullens are still very raw, so former Hoosier D.J. White will likely be OKC’s 5th big man. Don’t be surprised if the 19-year old Ibaka and/or the 20-year old Mullens spend significant time playing for the Tulsa 66ers (OKC’s D-League affiliate) this season.
Preseason Battle to Watch: Thabo Sefolosha vs. James Harden
Since he performed very well for the Thunder last season, Thabo will probably get the 1st crack at starting at shooting guard on opening night. After all, he’s long, athletic, a fierce defender, and he doesn’t need to have the ball in his hands to contribute. In other words, he’s a great complementary player to Durant, Westbrook, and Green. In this scenario, the rookie Harden would come off the bench, where his scoring abilities would be better suited for Oklahoma City’s 2nd unit.
On the other hand, the Thunder attempted fewer threes than any other team for the 2nd year in a row. Westbrook can get to the basket at will, but his outside shot is still very shaky. Durant can also take anyone to the hole, but other than Jeff Green, he didn’t have a reliable option that he could drive & kick to last season. Sefolosha himself made just 24% of his 3-point attempts for OKC last season, and he’s never been considered a reliable outside threat. So if Scott Brooks decides that it’s imperative to get another shooter in the lineup to help spread the floor and keep teams honest, then Harden is the likely candidate.
For the good of competition, Brooks probably won’t announce his starting shooting guard decision until the end of preseason, so both players will have plenty of chances to make their case. Pay close attention to Sefolosha’s outside shot. If he’s making threes on a consistent basis throughout preseason, then he’ll probably keep his starting job. If not, then the door will be wide open for Harden to show what he can do.
Odd Man Out: Kyle Weaver
Weaver proved to be a very versatile player last year, starting 19 games and doing a little bit of everything in his rookie season. Unfortunately, he’s one of those players that is good at everything but not great at anything, and that’s really going to hurt him. Sefolosha is the better defensive player, Harden is the better offensive player, and Livingston is the better playmaker, so Kyle is going to have a tough time finding minutes this season. Unless someone goes down with an injury, Weaver is the odd man out in OKC’s backcourt.
DON’T SLEEP ON: Kevin Durant
Last season I picked Jeff Green as my Thunder player not to sleep on, citing his nice numbers at the end of the ‘07-08 season and his improved play in the 2008 Orlando Summer League as evidence that he might have a breakout year. If you used a late-round pick on Green, you were rewarded with solid all-around numbers from the versatile forward.
This year, my pick is a little more obvious, but I should start by saying that I don’t like the term “sleeper.” For fantasy sports purposes, many people like to hype up the same “sleeper picks.” But if 8 of 12 owners in the same league have the same “sleepers” in mind, then should those players still be considered sleeper picks? So when I say “Don’t Sleep On,” I’m not suggesting that others are unaware of said player or that he’ll fall into your lap. Instead, I’m suggesting that said player could put up better stats than you might be expecting. Such is the case for Kevin Durant…
If you look at his ‘08-09 season stats, they are quite impressive. However, they mask how jaw-droppingly good he really was. As stated above, the Thunder lost 12 of 13 games and averaged just 88.9 points per game under P.J. Carlesimo. In those games, Durant averaged just 21.8 points, 4.1 rebounds, 5.1 free throw attempts, and .6 threes on 46.2% FG shooting. Not bad, but not that special either. When Scott Brooks took over and moved him to small forward, Durant became much more aggressive, and it showed in his stats. However, on February 27th, he played just 8 minutes before badly spraining his ankle. He missed the next 7 games, and when he returned, the season was almost over, so he played just 34.6 mpg in April.
So to get a clearer picture of Durant’s ‘08-09 season, one must look at his stats AFTER P.J. was replaced and BEFORE he sprained his ankle. In those 43 games, KD averaged a monster 27.7 points, 7.5 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.4 steals, .9 blocks, 1.6 threes, and 7.9 free throw attempts on 49.3% FG, 43.8% 3P, and 86.4% FT shooting. If he had put up those stats over the entire season, Durant would have ranked 3rd in scoring, 11th in 3P%, 14th in steals, 23rd in FT% (2nd among players with 7+ attempts), 29th in FG% (3rd among players with 17.5+ attempts), 29th in rebounds (3rd among small forwards), 37th in blocks (5th among small forwards), 39th in threes made, and 53rd in assists (4th among small forwards).

How well-rounded is that statline? Well, consider that the only player to average 7.5+ boards, 3+ assists, 1.25+ steals, and .75+ blocks last season was LeBron James. In fact, with the exception of assists, it’s possible that Durant could match or best LeBron in every major stat category this season. And while Bron-Bron did make 78% of his freebies last year, there’s no guarantee that he’ll match that in the upcoming season. What does this mean? Well, if James reverts to his 70% FT shooting woes, Durant’s advantage in that category would be even GREATER than the advantage that LeBron has in assists, meaning that Kevin could possibly be the more valuable fantasy player in 2009-2010.
Now let’s compare him to a few of the other top players… Dwyane Wade was brilliant in ‘08-09, but most of his stats can’t get any better, he’s a very mediocre free throw shooter, and he remains a major injury risk. Kobe Bryant used to be a Top 3 fantasy player, but he’ll be 31 when the ‘09-10 season starts, his stats declined quite a bit last year, and the Lakers don’t need his regular season heroics as much as they used to. Danny Granger has emerged as one of the top forwards in the league, but a large chunk of his value is connected to his 3-point shooting, which is likely to slide next season if Mike Dunleavy returns healthy. Dwight Howard is a truly dominant center, but his FT% is brutal, which limits which players you can team up with him. So the only LOCK to put up better stats than Durant is Chris Paul, the #1 fantasy player in each of the past two seasons.
Amazingly, “Durantula” is still just 20 years old (he can legally drink on September 29th), so his upside is incredible. He was a toothpick when he entered the league, but you can tell that he’s really worked on bulking up and getting stronger. As he continues to improve physically, his body will be better equipped to handle the rigors of the NBA season. Perhaps my favorite thing about KD is how humble he is. In this recent interview, Durant was asked to grade how he played in last month’s Team USA minicamp. He responded with: “I’d say I was average… I think I played as hard as I could… I’m just blessed to be here and happy they invited me.”
Yes, that’s the same USA minicamp where Durant was praised endlessly by the chairman (Jerry Colangelo), head coach (Mike Krzyzewski), and minicamp coach (Jay Triano) of USA Basketball. He’s a lock to make next year’s team that will play in the 2010 FIBA World Championships, so he’ll continue to compete with and against the very best players in the world. And as his wisdom and experience continues to grow, he’ll become even more unstoppable. Most die-hard basketball fans already know that Kevin Durant is one of the top players in the league, but I’m here to tell you that he could be the 2nd best fantasy player, as soon as the 2009-2010 season.
BE CAREFUL OF: James Harden
Sure, he was the #3 pick in this year’s draft and he’s supposed to be one of the more NBA-ready prospects, but I suggest staying away from Harden until the very last rounds of your draft. For starters, he’s going to have some serious competition at shooting guard thanks to Thabo Sefolosha, a player that is longer, more experienced, and a better defender. Some top draft picks get all the playing time that they can handle, but Harden will also have to battle Livingston and Weaver for minutes.
If he’s coming off the bench, he’ll likely be limited to under 24 minutes per game. Very few players (Chris “Birdman” Andersen is one) are able to make a major fantasy impact while playing under 24 mpg, so if you don’t think Harden is going to start anytime soon, then you may not want to draft him at all. Even if Harden does start from day one, his playing time will be limited. A best-case scenario for his pre-All-Star break minutes would probably be 28-30. His playing time will surely go up later in the year if the Thunder are out of playoff contention, but for now, you should expect no more than 30 minutes from the rookie.
Did I mention that he’s a rookie? In a recent Yahoo! NBA magazine mock draft, Charlie Zegers of Rotowire.com selected Harden #110 overall. This was ahead of established players such as Rodney Stuckey, Luis Scola, and Jermaine O’Neal, which is a mistake if you ask me. While Harden does have the potential to be a Top 100 fantasy player this season, I certainly wouldn’t risk using a pick that high. If you want to be a savvy fantasy GM, then use Russell Westbrook as an example. Last year, many people used a Top 150 pick on Westbrook, then quickly dropped him when he struggled out of the gates. The smart owner didn’t draft Russell, but they immediately picked him up when he was inserted into the starting lineup.
Prospect to Keep an Eye on: Serge Ibaka
You may have expected me to say B.J. Mullens, but I find Serge Ibaka to be much more intriguing. The 6′10, 220 pounder was drafted in 2008, but he doesn’t turn 20 until September. The Congo native is still quite raw, but he started playing ball at 6 years old and both his parents played on his country’s national team, so “basketball is in my veins” he says. Of course, it helps that he’s a freak athlete with a huge wingspan, as you can see in this video.
If you’re still not impressed by Ibaka’s athleticism, consider that DraftExpress gives a best base comparison to Tyrus Thomas. With his superb quickness and ability to get up and down the floor, Ibaka should have no problem running alongside speed demon Russell Westbrook. Ibaka also put up solid numbers in the Orlando Summer League, totaling 49 points on 68% FG shooting, to go along with 13 boards and 6 blocks in 89 minutes of action. From a fantasy perspective, he has lots of potential as a shot-blocker, and his ability to finish around the basket is also intriguing. Keep an eye on this kid.
Most Likely to Miss 20+ Games: Shaun Livingston
I’m really pulling for Livingston to have a healthy season, but until he proves otherwise, he’s going to be a major injury risk. In this recent article, he estimates that his knee is “about 95% healthy,” but he also concedes that “I might not have the same quickness, lift and power that I had, so I have to be a lot smarter out there on the court.” He also has to be smarter off the court, where his strength, balance, and conditioning will be tested daily. Since the Thunder have no need to rush his progress, they’ll likely play it safe with Shaun and give him plenty of rest when they see fit. So while he would have all kinds of fantasy potential if Westbrook went down, he could also miss a bunch of games.
Most Likely to Put Up Big Stats After an Injury: Thabo Sefolosha & Etan Thomas
Sefolosha already proved what he could do with big minutes last season, when he averaged 8.9 points, 5.4 boards, 2.1 assists, 1.7 steals, 1.2 blocks, and .4 threes in 31.7 minutes in 22 starts for Oklahoma City. Several of those starts came when Durant was injured, so his numbers were a bit inflated, but he’s shown that he can be a valuable fantasy player when he gets enough playing time. You may not want to draft him, but if Harden, Durant, or Green gets hurt, I suggest picking him up ASAP.
Similarly, Etan Thomas could also make some fantasy noise if Green, Collison, or Krstic were to go down. In his last healthy season (’06-07), Thomas started 32 games for Washington, averaging a respectable 7.8 points, 7.3 boards, and 1.8 blocks in just 22.8 minutes in those contests. Since he’ll be OKC’s best interior defender, he’ll likely get a chance to play big minutes if/when one of their other bigs gets hurt.
PLAYER PROFILES / RANKING POTENTIAL
Kevin Durant
See above.
Lock For: Top 10
Good Shot At: Top 5
Potential For: #2 overall
Russell Westbrook
There were concerns about whether or not Westbrook would be ready to contribute when he entered the league, and it did not look good for him when he shot just 34.5% from the field last November. However, coach Brooks made him his starter and gave him even more minutes, and Russell more than handled his own while essentially learning on the job. He turned the ball over a LOT (3.7 per 36 minutes, tops in the league), but at the same time, his game is all about quickness, so he’s gotta play fast. In fact, he kind of reminds me of a smaller, less refined version of Dwyane Wade (another high turnover guy).
However, Westbrook has the advantage of playing with Kevin Durant, a guy that can handle the rock and then some. This takes a lot of pressure off of Russell, and as he gets more experience, I’m sure that his turnovers will go down. Of course, that should still be a major concern for those of you in 9-cat leagues that count turnovers and ast/to ratio. Another area where Westbrook could really improve on is his outside and mid-range shooting. He made just 27.1% of his 3-point attempts and just 41.6% of his 2-point attempts last year, and those numbers are just unacceptable. He’s supposed to have a strong work ethic, so I’m sure he’s making hundreds of jumpers every day to improve his game. Westbrook is a crazy athlete, but once his jumper starts falling, look out! That’s why he has Top 50 fantasy potential (in 8-cat leagues), although he may not realize it for another year or two.
Lock For: Top 80
Good Shot At: Top 65
Potential For: Top 50
Jeff Green
After a sub-par rookie year, Green really turned it on last season. A couple of friends have asked me to describe his game, but he’s rather hard to categorize. He’s not a traditional power forward by any means, but that’s where he played 3/4 of his minutes last year. The first thing I noticed about Jeff is that he has a great first step and is very aggressive when he wants to take it to the basket. He’s quicker than most power forwards in the league, so that’s a definite advantage, and he isn’t afraid to try and dunk the ball HARD on his opponent’s head. One of his drive and dunks was so ferocious that it reminded me of Dominique Wilkins (my favorite player growing up), but I tuned into a Hawks-Thunder game a couple of months later and ‘Nique (Atlanta’s TV color commentator) basically dissed Green by saying he didn’t like his game. That kind of surprised me, because one could argue that Green has developed more in 2 years in the league than Josh Smith (Atlanta’s own) has in 5 years.
Anyway, the main reason the former Hoya excelled last year was because his 3-point shot fell to the tune of 38.9% (8th best among power forwards) on 3.2 attempts per game, which made his quick 1st step even that more dangerous. He doesn’t rack up tons of boards or blocks, but his threes and solid free throw shooting (78.8% FT) definitely help out. If Green can continue to make threes at such a high rate while improving in other cats such as steals and assists, then his value could take another step forward this season. However, if his 3-point shooting slides to 33% and it drags his FG% down with it, then he might have trouble improving on last year’s stats. Either way, he should be a rock solid #3 forward.
Lock For: Top 90
Good Shot At: Top 75
Potential For: Top 60
James Harden
See above.
Lock For: Top 200
Good Shot At: Top 150
Potential For: Top 100
Nenad Krstic
Ahh, Nenad Krstic. Who can forget the 16.4 points and 6.8 boards on 52.6% FG shooting that he put up in ‘06-07? Not you? Well, he did that at the age of 23, and his future looked really bright until he tore the ACL in his left knee. Now he’s trying to come back, and you have to admire Presti for giving these guys who blew out their knees another chance. Nenad did struggle with his shooting touch when he first returned (he shot just 42.7% FG in January), but he improved and peaked in March, when he averaged a very respectable 11.9 points on 49% FG and 86% FT shooting, to go along with 6.1 boards, and 1 block in 27.7 minutes.
The guy that Krstic really needs to outwork is Nick Collison. Of course, that’s easier said than done, because the Kansas boy is all about hard work. But if Krstic has his feathery jumper dropping, then he’s going to be A) the perfect guy to run the pick and pop with, and B) a great complement to the defensive-minded Etan Thomas. That’s why Nenad’s potential is pretty high. If he somehow managed to get 30 mpg, he would be a really reliable option.
Lock For: Top 225
Good Shot At: Top 165
Potential For: Top 115
Thabo Sefolosha
See above.
Lock For: Top 250
Good Shot At: Top 175
Potential For: Top 125
Nick Collison
I admire Collison, because he’s tough as nails and his numbers have been incredibly consistent over his 5 year career. However, he is what he is, and nothing more. He could retain his starting job because of that reliability, but I get the feeling that OKC is going to give Krstic and Thomas a lot of burn as well.
Lock For: Nothing
Good Shot At: Top 200
Potential For: Top 150
Shaun Livingston
See above.
Lock For: Nothing
Good Shot At: Top 250
Potential For: Top 175
Etan Thomas
I give Etan Thomas a lot of props because he’s overcome a leaking aortic valve, he’s released a book of poetry, he’s a peace activist, and he still rocks the dreads. Gotta love that. I also remember going to a Warriors-Wizards game back in ‘04 where Arenas was throwing up bricks and the Wiz simply gave up in the 2nd half, with the exception of Thomas. Etan was still busting his ass on both ends of the floor, and I’ve always respected his game since then. I’m pulling for him.
Lock For: Nothing
Good Shot At: Top 250
Potential For: Top 200
EVIL’S PREDICTIONS
Projected Record: 34-48
Projected Finish: 4th in Northwest Division, 11th in Western Conference
Crunch Time Lineup: Westbrook, Harden, Durant, Green, Krstic
+/- Curveball Lineup: Westbrook, Durant, Green, Krstic, Thomas
Pleasant Surprise: Livingston and Thomas have nice recovery years, proving that they can still contribute.
Biggest Disappointment: All of us NBA fans hoping to see a lot of the Oklahoma City Thunder in the upcoming season. As my buddy Jonny pointed out to me, the Thunder got shafted as far as nationally televised games go. They’ll have just 1 ESPN game and 0 TNT or ABC games, meaning that those of you who don’t purchase NBA TV or NBA League Pass (or live in Oklahoma) will only get to see them ONCE this season.
That’s a blasphemous move by David Stern, because the Thunder are running a franchise the right way and they are going to be involved in all kinds of shootouts, buzzer beaters, big-game performances, and overall exciting basketball games in 2009-2010. We wanna see the Thunder Stern!!! And to prove a point to him, I’d like everyone to vote in this poll concerning a couple of games on New Years Eve 2010.
Bold Prediction: The Thunder will finish in the Top 10 in scoring (they were 24th last year), Russell Westbrook will post an assist-to-turnover ratio over 1.75 (was 1.59 last year), and Kevin Durant will finish the season as the 3rd best fantasy player in the NBA. Oh, and a badass website will sponsor Durant’s stat page.
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*This Oklahoma City Thunder team preview was published by Eric Wong of RotoEvil.com on August 7th, 2009. If you enjoyed reading it, please check out the other free team previews.
If you want to get ALL of the team previews (including updates to this one), stat projections & analysis for 360+ players, in-depth sleeper & strategy articles, and the best draft ratings, player rankings, tiers, and cheatsheets around, then stay tuned for his 2009-2010 Fantasy Basketball Draft Guide. Join hundreds of satisfied customers, and you’ll get everything you need to win your fantasy hoops league.
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I agree that the Thunder appear to be doing things the right way and are headed in the right direction. I also believe the NBA screwed up by giving them only 1 national TV game. On your poll, I voted GS/OKC because that should be a fun game….but DEN/SA should also be a fun game. Denver is one of the better teams to watch…..it helps that they have a spectacle all to themselves in the Birdman.
I feel compelled to write more. E…very nice format. I like the way that, for each of the key rotation players, you indicated likely and potential fantasy rankings. I think there’s a pretty good consensus on where the primary value lies on this team (Durant, Westbrook, Green)….but I think your write-up on Thabo/Harden is on point and helpful. My guess is that a lot of fantasy owners not just pencil in, but use a permanent marker in their mind in placing Harden in the starting line-up. I agree that 24-28 minutes, especially early, is a better projection for Harden…and, especially for a SG, that’s not usually a minute allocation that translates to fantasy success. Let’s project 12 points, 1 3-pointer, 0.6 steals and 3 boards and 2 assists. Those numbers don’t get you a spot in most 12 team single season leagues.
that projection is pretty close to what Flip Murray averaged last year…so let’s say Harden averages what Flip did last year (12 pts, 1.1 3’s, 1.1 steals, minimal boards/assists). Raise your hand if you drafted, or at any time owned, Flip Murray last year in your 12 team league. Didn’t think so. Like E said, he’s someone to keep an eye on in case he gets a minute boost later in the year…but unlike E’s Westbrook comparison, Harden just doesn’t have the same upside in assists/steals that Westbrook had…so even some uptick in minutes may not make Harden all that ownable next year (in single season leagues).
Thanks Hunter. In Harden’s defense, he should have the opportunity to make much more than just 1 trey per game. As I said, OKC needs some outside shooting help, so as far as his threes go, he should be a lock for 1.2, have a good shot at 1.5, and the potential for 1.8. Of course, he’ll need to do more to be a reliable fantasy option…
so then, he’ll be Eddie House with a few more points. fantastic.
you’re probably right that he’ll be closer to 1.5 3’s. still, I don’t see him doing enough in other categories (at least not early) to justify a draft pick.
Harden will surprise with a high number of free throw attempts. If he can do convert free throws and maintain his agressive dribble drive talents. The coaches will be forced to put him on the court.
As for 3’s. NBA 3 point line is 23′9″ from the top 22 from the corners and further at the wings. College arc is about 4 feet shorter at 19′9″ at the top. NCAA approved moving the line a full 12 inches back. The new line will be 20′9″.
4 feet is a huge difference. Harden has nice form decent release. Not very quick. He will learn the distance. But I don’t see him shooting OJ Mayo rookie strong in his 1st season.
Check that…the NCAA line was moved back last season.
Hardens 3 point shooting % improved when they moved the 3 line back 1 foot.
Impressive. 35.6% his first season up to 40.7% with more attempts. Maybe the range extension will be ok for him.
Looks great E
Dude…Kevin Durant write up was serious.
I didn’t realize Jeff Green was an effective fantasy forward. Good to know he was 8th in forward 3point shooting. Always have to love those premium 3point shooting forwards.
The Serge Ibaka scouting report and video was excellent. I didn’t care for it at first. But it grew on me. Today this write up may be inconspicous and many of you will barely glance at it. 2-3-4 years down the road, when or if he breaks out, everybody who read and watched will be saying. “I knew about Serge Ibaka years ago! pshh”
Bring on the next free preview…Cavs?
Washington
Golden State
Blazers
Word up on Serge. Did you watch the video?
It’s kinda slow at first but it gets juicy at 2:13 where Ibaka is preparing for his max vert. Dude gets UP. They call out 42 inches, which is Jamario Moon type hops, and the guy’s wingspan has gotta be at LEAST 7′6 (DX doesn’t have his measurement). After his vert, it shows how smoothly and effortlessly he can drive the lane for a dunk. And when he dunks it he bends his elbow at a 90 degree angle because if his arm was extended he probably would have hit his elbow on the rim. All that athleticism AND he has 3-point range (according to DraftExpress)?!?!
I’m calling it now. Dude is gonna be an impact NBA player.
By the way, where’s my man Jonny AKA Shotgun Don at???
Peep the song that’s playing in the background of the Ibaka video? SIICK! That’s the Fried Neckbones joint you sent me awhile back. HAH! On a hoop video no less. Great song. That’s by Willie Bobo if I’m not mistaken.
Great preview E! Durant is taking his game to the next level no doubt he’s a shoo-in for olympic team from what I’m hearing. But I’m also high on Westbrook if he raises his fg% he’s an excellent no.1 pg plus his assist numbers should go up with a year under his belt and harden on board hopefully, he, harden can lock down the sg spot. I just don’t see Sefolosha beating harden out for the job full time…if so, imo, he would have locked it down last year and they could have drafted a big man.
um, Kicking Rocks…at least according to E…Harden’s 3 point% *dropped* 5 percentage points when the 3 point line was extended…so that’s not such a good sign.
dmc…um, what big man could they have drafted at #3? Jordan Hill? this wasn’t a very good big man draft. I think Harden was the best fit as far as value and type of game, but that doesn’t mean he steps into 32 min/game in his rookie year. He’s not the athlete that Mayo/Gordon are…and I think the Manu comparisons are misleading. I think he’s more of a Paul Pierce-lite type. We’ll see how much of his ceiling he reaches.
Yeah Rocks, you got the %’s backwards. I had no idea about the 3-point line tho. Do you have a link so we can read?
The transition from college 3 to pro 3 is definitely rough for most players. But not all. Eric Gordon shot nearly 40% from outside last season and he was much worse in college (altho he had a hand or wrist injury at Indiana I believe).
Rocks does make a REALLY good point about Harden’s slow release however. That’s one of the first things I noticed about Harden is that his release is pretty frickin slow. He’s a lefty like Michael Redd but Redd’s got that superquick and high release. Harden was like twice as slow from what I saw. I forgot about that while I was doing the write-up.
Now that I remember that AND the 3-point line change comparison, he’s even more deadly. Stay away or pay the price.
Congrats E that is one in depth analysis of a team ……..You claimed earlier in the piece that this year was to see an improvement of your product……You have delivered!
I am a little disappointed that we are not running a mock draft of our own this year, “yet” there is still time , I seem to remember being chided last year for taking Durant early in the second round and 12 months later a case is being made for KD to be #2 fantasy player …….Love it I will admit to a faux pas last year though at #51 I grasped the millstone T’Mac….looked good for a while .
Looking forward to the guide’s launch , my credit card is anticipating use.
Thanks d2b. The mock drafts are coming soon!
hunter…well actually, I thougth thabeet would have been a good addition to the club. His shot-blocking and defensivse skills would be a great asset, imo, to a team that was averaging about 98 pts a game. He’s not very polished offensively as evidenced by his difficulties in the summer league but his defense is what the thunder could really use. Althought it’s a moot point now since they drafted harden because they needed to fill the sg slot. They, the thunder, have been reduced to trading for etan thomas…I’ve seen etan play on a number of occasions he hustles and all but…thabeet would have been a nice addition to a young growing nucleus.
dmc – I agree that Thabeet would have been an intriguing pick for them. He could have blocked a lot of shots to spark fast breaks and get Westbrook flying down the floor. However, maybe Ibaka can do something similar for them in a few years…
hunter…since he was drafted 2nd it doesn’t matter but there was some trade talk, I believe, concerning the 3rd pick. I was hoping they would draft thabeet actually if a trade materialized but…now after thabeet I didn’t see any bigs that looked all that great but you can always dream…
Excellent write-up.
For what it’s worth, at that point in that draft I was really looking at high-risk/high-reward players. And I’d much rather have a guy like Harden, whose ceiling is not yet established, than a Jermaine O’Neal, who is going to be limited by generally iffy health.
Thanks for reading.
Thanks Charlie. At pick #110 I don’t think you should be going for broke yet. Stuckey is not a high-risk player at all, and his upside is plenty high. In that same draft, Brandon Rush fell to #148, and considering Dunleavy is out to start the season, I think Mike D. will put up better stats for the first couple of months. But no big deal… it’s just a mock draft.
hey guys… check this article from hoopsworld – http://www.hoopsworld.com/Story.asp?story_id=13518
its basically saying that most of the ROY players will have significant increase in performance on their 3rd year…
I am picking 5th this season on my main league… this gives me more reason to pick Durant on that spot… I just hope he is still available by then hehehe…
by the way, nice write up E! Thanks…
Yeah, I saw that article after I finished my write-up. Very well done. In fact, that’s one of the best Hoopsworld articles I’ve seen in awhile (not a big fan of most of their stuff). More validation for Durant to take another step forward.
If you’re picking 5th, the guy you really have to cross your fingers on is Kobe. If he goes in the top 4, then Durant will probably fall to you at 5. So if there’s a Kobe-lover in your league, hopefully he has the 3rd or 4th pick.
As always, thanks for reading dimebag.
the only prob i have is that Durant is a top 5 player(next year not the future)(when i say this i don’t mean fantasy im judging on all of the real life intangibles) he reminds me so much of a Mcgrady type of player hes not a good leader and will likely never win anything more than a R.O.Y trophy and maybe a scoring title. the other thing i think is funny is that in Aldridge and Roy’s second season the blazers went 41 and 41 and people say that the sonics (i wont acknowledge them as the thunder)will be the real threat in the future its going to be the blazers time so sorry to all of you Oklahomaieans or what ever you guys are called ,hum i guess that was more than one problem. GO BLAZERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (even though i still love the Sonics)
Are you a professional journalist? You write very well.
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