2009-2010 Team Preview: Portland Trail Blazers
August 15, 2009 by Evil E
What is Greg Oden smiling about?
LAST SEASON
The Blazers posted a 54-28 record, which tied Denver and San Antonio for the 2nd best record in the West. However, they weren’t ready for postseason success, losing to the Rockets in the 1st round.
Brandon Roy took another step forward, and he’s now challenging D. Wade as the best shooting guard not named Kobe. When you consider that Greg Oden struggled with injuries, inconsistency, and foul trouble in his 1st NBA season, and that 5 of their 6 leading scorers were under 25 years old last year, you realize how much potential this Portland squad has.
As a team, the Blazers had the slowest pace factor in the league, with an estimated 86.6 possessions per 48 minutes (by contrast, the Warriors averaged 98.2). So they slowed the tempo down, but Portland was incredibly efficient, leading the league with 113.9 points per 100 possessions. They were also the best offensive rebounding team in the league (12.9 per game), and for the season, they pulled down a whopping 444 more rebounds than their opponents.
MANAGEMENT
Main Owner: Paul Allen
General Manager: Kevin Pritchard
Head Coach: Nate McMillan
Paul Allen co-founded Microsoft with Bill Gates, and he’s now listed as the 32nd most wealthiest person in the world. In addition to the Blazers, he also owns the Seattle Seahawks (NFL) and Seattle Sounders (Major League Soccer). He was diagnosed with Hodgkin’s disease in 1983, but it was successfully treated. Allen appears to be a very generous man, as his “Paul Allen Family Foundation” donates around $30 million in grants anually. However, while he attended Washington STATE for two years, he has donated more money to the University of Washington.
When Kevin Pritchard played point guard for the University of Kansas, his assistant coach was Greg Popovich and his head coach was Larry Brown, so he learned from two Hall of Fame coaches while still in college. In the NBA, he totaled just 340 points in 94 games for his playing career, but he’s clearly better suited for a managerial role. Before the ‘05 NBA draft, he advised Portland to select Chris Paul #3 overall, but he was overruled, and instead they traded the pick to Utah for the #6 pick (Martell Webster) and change. Pritchard was promoted to assistant GM in 2006, and he immediately improved the franchise by parlaying Sebastian Telfair, Theo Ratliff, Tyrus Thomas, Viktor Khryapa, and cash into Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge.
As a head coach, McMillan has 3 more losses than wins heading into the ‘09-10 season, but you get the feeling that’s about to change very soon. Nate has quickly become one of the most well-respected coaches in the league, which is why he’s a current assistant for the U.S. national team. In 12 NBA seasons playing for the Sonics, he actually recorded more assists (4,893) than points scored (4,733), and thanks to his stellar defense, he grabbed more steals (1,544) than he had turnovers (1,486). He made the NBA All-Defensive 2nd team two years in a row, and he brings that hard-nosed style of play to the Blazers.
OFFSEASON MOVES
Key Additions: Andre Miller, Victor Claver, Jeff Pendergraph, Dante Cunningham, P. Mills
Key Losses: Sergio Rodriguez, Channing Frye
After striking out in attempts to sign both Hedo Turkoglu and Paul Millsap, Portland turned their attention to veteran PG Andre Miller. The Knicks also showed some interest in Andre, but Portland was his “number 1 choice,” so both sides agreed to a 3-year deal for $21 million (the 3rd year is a team option). Coach McMillan likes his ability to push the ball, and he even compared ‘Dre to himself: “I felt like I kind of knew him already, because in a sense, we were similar as players, as far as not being great scorers or shooters, but we made our teams better because of our feel for the game and our I.Q.” By replacing the young & inconsistent Rodriguez (whom they sent to Sacramento to move up in the draft) with the smooth & steady Miller, the Blazers improved their team considerably at the point guard position.
However, they lost Channing Frye to the Suns, so they used their first three picks to draft a trio of forwards. Claver will stay in Europe for another year or two, but he’s the youngest of the three and has the most upside (see below). Pendergraph had a rock solid career at Arizona St. and possesses a nice shooting touch, but there are questions about his size and defense. Cunningham is an undersized power forward (6′8, 230) who does all the dirty work, but he’ll have to work hard to find his niche in the NBA. With the 55th pick in the draft, Portland made a smart gamble by selecting Australian PG Patrick Mills, a quick and explosive scorer who more than held his own in the Olympics against Chris Paul, Deron Williams, and Jason Kidd.
In other very important news, the Blazers agreed to a contract extension with franchise player Brandon Roy. It’s a max deal worth around $80 million for 5 years, and confirms that the All-Star guard will be a Blazer for many years to come. Now the team is turning their attention to LaMarcus Aldridge, in hopes of extending their rising big man as well.
DEPTH CHART
PG: Andre Miller / Steve Blake / Jerryd Bayless
SG: Brandon Roy / Rudy Fernandez
SF: Nicolas Batum / Travis Outlaw / Martell Webster
PF: LaMarcus Aldridge / Jeff Pendergraph / Dante Cunningham
C: Greg Oden / Joel Przybilla
ROTATION / PLAYING TIME
Let’s start with Brandon Roy, since he’s the leader of this team. Last season he averaged 37.2 mpg, but that number was dragged down in April, when he played just 32.4 mpg as Portland rested him for the postseason. So he’s basically a 38+ minute player. Similarly, LaMarcus Aldridge averaged 37.1 mpg last season, but that number was limited by his poor November start, when he averaged just 33.1 minutes and 15.9 points. After that month, Aldridge was also a 38+ minute player, and you know that he and Roy will continue to log heavy minutes. The rest of Portland’s rotation is where things get interesting…
Last year, Greg Oden started 39 games (23.3 mpg), came off the bench for 21 games (18.3 mpg), and sat out 21 games completely. By contrast, Przybilla started 42 games (26.3 mpg), came off the bench for 39 games (21.2 mpg), and didn’t miss a single contest. For 2009-10, I’m projecting Oden to be the starter from day one, and while he’ll still struggle with foul trouble, I’m marking him down for 25-27 minutes per game. For Przybilla, he’ll likely contribute 21-23 mpg off the bench. Pendergraph and Cunningham will battle for the backup power forward spot, but if neither seizes the opportunity, those minutes will go to Travis Outlaw.
Point guard is a little trickier, because the only time Andre Miller has EVER averaged under 34.5 mpg was his rookie season with the Cavs. He’s also the most durable player in the entire NBA, having missed just 5 games in his 10-year career. So ‘Dre is gonna be healthy, and he’s gonna be ready for a ton of playing time. But early word from McMillan is that Steve Blake will enter training camp as the starting point guard. “Hey, that team last season won 54 games,” McMillan points out. Blake also gives them another outside shooting threat to spread the floor, and if you think about it, a backup backcourt of Miller & Fernandez would probably be the best in the league.
However, the former Maryland star had arthroscopic shoulder surgery in May, and if he’s not fully recovered, he’s going to have a hard time fending off ‘Dre. Miller is simply too smart and too talented to sit on the bench, so I’m projecting 30-32 minutes for him, with the possibility for more if Blake isn’t healthy. If Stevesie is fine, he’ll get at least 16 mpg. Even if he manages to hang onto the starting PG spot, the best he could hope for is a 24/24 split, but that seems unlikely. Of course, that leaves little playing time for Jerryd Bayless, but if he accepts the tutelage of Miller and proves himself in practice, he’ll get some minutes eventually.
Preseason Battle to Watch: Batum vs. Outlaw vs. Fernandez
In my opinion, this will be one of the fiercest training camp battles around, because all three players are young, and all have proven that they deserve some run alongside Roy & Aldridge. Last season, Outlaw started just 6 games, but he played a whopping 27.7 minutes off the bench. Similarly, Rudy started just 4 games, but he got 25.6 mpg off the bench. Meanwhile, Nicolas Batum started 75 games as a rookie, but he got just 18.4 mpg. So how will this play out in 2009-2010?
Well first of all, I don’t think that Batum should be counted out. He’s really long, he’s really athletic, he can D up, and he can knock down shots (sometimes). In a recent Eurobasket game, he dropped 20 points and 8 rebounds, and at 20 years old, he still has a ton of potential. However, the latest news on Batum is that French doctors (and surely Portland doctors as well) are examining his shoulder because he’s had “instability for several months.” That doesn’t sound good, but if he recovers, he could start at small forward again and earn up to 20-24 mpg.
Outlaw is in another state of mind, because he’s going to be an unrestricted free agent after this season and all signs point to him leaving. So his story could play out a few different ways… Portland could decide to give him more minutes (28-30 mpg) and showcase his abilities in hopes of trading him before the deadline. OR, Outlaw could force the issue by trying to put up big stats instead of playing team basketball. If that happens, McMillan could get mad and limit his playing time to 20-24 mpg. But most likely, he’ll accept his backup role again and get 25-27 minutes of action playing both forward spots.
This leaves us with the Spanish sensation Rudy Fernandez. I’m projecting him to get 10 minutes of action as Roy’s replacement, and an additional 16-18 minutes while playing alongside Brandon, so around 26-28 minutes per game in his sophomore season. Ideally, Portland will be able to exchange Outlaw for a proven veteran before the trade deadline. This would open up more playing time for not only Fernandez and Batum, but the man below as well.
Odd Man Out: Jerryd Bayless
Bayless is an incredible athlete with all kinds of potential, but to get in Nate McMillan’s rotation he’ll have to either A) take care of the basketball better (so he can play PG), or B) become a more reliable 3-point shooter (so he can play SG). At this point, Jerryd is neither. In his rookie season, Bayless posted 78 assists to 56 turnovers, for a measly 1.39 ast/to ratio. From beyond the arc, he made just 7 of 27 attempts, for a sub-par 25.9% 3P. But since he was a 20-year old rookie, those numbers can be easily improved.
I expected Bayless to focus on those weaknesses, but based on his Vegas summer league stats, that hasn’t happened. In 4 summer league games, Jerryd dropped 17 assists in 125 total minutes, but he also committed a whopping 25 turnovers! He didn’t fare much better from beyond the arc, making just 1 of 5 threes. Last year, Bayless was stuck behind Steve Blake (a career 39% 3P shooter and 2.9 assist/turnover ratio) and Sergio Rodriguez (a career 2.5 assist/turnover ratio). Now Sergio is gone, but Andre Miller is a much more capable replacement. Unless Blake gets hurt, Bayless is going to be the odd man out in Portland’s backcourt.
DON’T SLEEP ON: Greg Oden
Greg Oden’s NBA career has been pretty rough thus far. As the #1 overall pick in the 2007 Draft (ahead of Kevin Durant), huge expectations were immediately placed upon his shoulders. His body couldn’t handle it. In July 2007, he had his tonsils removed. In September 2007, he underwent microfracture surgery to repair cartilage in his right knee, forcing him to miss the entire ‘07-08 season. He returned for the ‘08-09 season opener, only to leave before halftime after spraining his right foot, missing the next 6 games. Later in the year, he missed another month due to a bone chip in his left knee. So he’s had a hell of a time staying healthy.
When Oden DID play last season, he struggled mightily with foul trouble, picking up 4 or more fouls in 42 of his 61 games, and being one of the league leaders with 6.5 fouls per 36 minutes. Fortunately, almost all big men see their foul rate decrease from year 1 to year 2 as they get more comfortable and earn more respect from the referees. The last center drafted #1 overall was Andrew Bogut in 2005. In Bogut’s rookie season, he averaged 4.0 fouls per 36 minutes, but he cut that down to 3.4 per 36 in his sophomore season. Oden isn’t as fleet of foot, so he’ll still get into plenty of foul trouble, but it shouldn’t be nearly as bad as it was last year.
And now for the good: per minute, Oden was actually very productive in his rookie season, averaging 14.8 points, 11.6 rebounds (4.6 offensive), and 1.9 blocks per 36 minutes. In Dwight Howard’s rookie year, the man-beast averaged just 13.2 points, 11.1 rebounds (3.9 offensive), and 1.8 blocks per 36 minutes. He also shot just 52% from the field, compared to 56% for Oden. Four years later, and Howard is now the #1 center in the league. It’s doubtful that Oden has that kind of potential, but the fact that his rookie numbers compare favorably with Howard’s is very intriguing.
Even if Oden doesn’t improve that much (which he should), his scoring and rebounding opportunities should increase in the upcoming season. Why is that? Well, remember that Portland had the absolute slowest pace factor last year. This resulted in a combined (Blazers + their opponents) 156 field goal attempts per game, compared to 175 for the Warriors and 172 for the Knicks. However, with Andre Miller at point guard, the Blazers will surely increase their tempo a bit, resulting in more shot attempts and rebound attempts for everyone involved. The veteran PG should also do a great job of setting Oden up for easy buckets, so it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Greg’s FG% rises to over 58% FG, placing him among the Top 5 league leaders in that category.
While Oden’s physical health will be key, his mental side will be just as important. Since most sports fans and analysts alike tend to be very critical, they’ve been quick to jump on Oden the past couple of years. It clearly affected his play on the court, as he didn’t seem to have much joy or confidence when he played. In this excellent article by The Oregonian, Oden admits that he wore down psychologically last season. In 2009-2010, things are expected to be different. “I want to have fun this year,” a smiling Oden said. “I’m going to try and enjoy playing.” And if you don’t believe in the big man, he doesn’t really care. “I’m just telling myself it doesn’t matter what they think, what matters is what I think,” Oden said. “I’m the one who has (to) go out there, and I’m the one who has to live with how I play. No one else.” Those around Greg are already noticing a difference. “I really liked his positive energy,” Kevin Pritchard said. “He seemed like he was in good spirits.”
At the recent Team USA minicamp, Oden was praised by Toronto coach Jay Triano, and it’s possible that he (along with Kevin Durant and Derrick Rose) could join Team USA for the 2010 FIBA World Championships, which would be another huge confidence boost for the 21-year old. A lot of people are going to make the mistake of writing Greg Oden off because of his up-and-down, sub-par, foul-prone, and injury-plagued ‘08-09 season, but I urge you to give him another chance. He’s still a long ways away from becoming a dominant NBA center, but dependable fantasy stats could be right around the corner. Don’t sleep!
BE CAREFUL OF: Andre Miller
From a regular basketball perspective, I really like Portland’s signing of Andre Miller. But from a fantasy perspective, I think it’s going to hurt Miller’s stats. For starters, he has yet to earn the starting PG job. It’s likely to happen, but assuming Blake is healthy, Miller’s playing time will still be limited compared to previous seasons. There’s a big difference between 36+ minutes per game and 30-33 minutes per game, so one should expect a slight decrease in most of Andre’s stats.
The most obvious category to decline is his scoring. Playing for Philly, Miller averaged 16.3 points last season and 17.0 points the year before, but in the 5 seasons before that, he was only good for 13-14 points per game. The 76ers needed ‘Dre to be a big-time scorer because 1) Elton Brand missed most of ‘08-09 and wasn’t around for ‘07-08, 2) Iguodala would have faced constant double-teams if they didn’t have another reliable threat, and 3) guys like Thaddeus Young and Lou Williams were too young to take on the role of #2 scorer.
Things will be different in Portland. Brandon Roy has already emerged as a Top 10 scorer, and Aldridge is on the verge of cracking the Top 25. Those two will get the majority of the shots, and guys like Outlaw & Fernandez are also capable of dropping 20+ points on any given night. Since Miller won’t need to take as many shot attempts, it wouldn’t surprise me if his scoring average falls below 13.0 ppg. He’s also one of the better rebounding point guards, but with fewer minutes (and Oden & Przybilla around), his boards could fall below 4.0. If it happens, it would be the first time since his rookie year that he didn’t average 13+ points or 4+ rebounds.
Yes, Miller’s assists should improve slightly thanks to his new surroundings, but his only chance of dropping 8+ dimes per game is if Roy or Blake gets hurt. Since he makes very few threes, and he’s already 33 years old, his upside is pretty limited. ‘Dre is still one of the more dependable point guards around since he never misses games, but I don’t suggest using a Top 60 pick to get him.
Prospect to Keep an Eye on: Victor Claver
The last Portland player to compete in Spain’s ACB league at a young age was Rudy Fernandez. Rudy made the transition to the NBA with very few problems, but Claver is not as polished or experienced. So he’s going to spend another year or two in Spain to hone his skills (and recover from an knee ankle injury), but he could be in Portland’s rotation sooner than you think. The Blazers gave up THREE draft picks to get him, so they clearly like his potential. What is there to like?
Standing 6′10 with a long wingspan, Claver has the ideal length to play small forward. Much like Fernandez, he is also a dangerous outside shooting threat. In his last two years in the ACB league, he shot 41.5% and 39.7% from 3-point range, while making 1.8 treys per 40 minutes. In the following videos, you can also see that he moves well without the ball and is very athletic for his size. Keep an eye on his progress.
Most Likely to Miss 20+ Games: Greg Oden
See above.
Most Likely to Put Up Big Stats After an Injury: Rudy Fernandez
Less than one year ago, Rudy Fernandez erupted onto the world basketball stage. Spain lost to the U.S. in the Olympic gold medal game, but Rudy more than proved his skills by dropping 22 points and 5 threes in less than 18 minutes of action. Oh yeah, he also threw this hammer dunk down on Dwight Howard, showing off his fearless athleticism.
Soon after, Rudy joined the Blazers to play in the NBA. As a 23-year old rookie, Fernandez averaged a solid 10.4 points, 2.0 assists, 2.0 threes, and .9 steals in just 25.6 minutes of action. He also made 40% of his 3-point attempts, easily adjusting to the longer NBA line. Unfortunately, the Spaniard is stuck behind one of the best shooting guards in the league, and he also has to compete with other talented players at small forward.
However, if one of those players were to get hurt, Rudy’s value would soar. In 4 starts last season, he upped his numbers to 13.5 points, 2.3 threes, and 1.25 steals in 33.8 minutes, and he easily has the potential for more. With Andre Miller at point guard, Fernandez should get setup for easier shots, and with a healthy Oden clogging up the paint, he’ll probably gamble for more steals as well. You shouldn’t draft him expecting to get a Top 100 type of player, but he has that kind of potential.
PLAYER PROFILES / RANKING POTENTIAL
Brandon Roy
If you missed the Houston @Portland overtime game from the beginning of last season, then you missed these two incredibly clutch shots by Brandon Roy (and one from Yao as well). That game showed that B. Roy was ready for “superstar” status, and there’s no disputing it from me. He took another step forward last year by improving his shooting %’s across the board, which also helped push his scoring average to over 22 points per game. And while his assists dipped slightly last season, you can still count on him for 5 boards and 5 assists virtually every game.
Roy’s free throw attempts have gone up from 4.2 to 5.0 to 6.5 per game, and I’m projecting that trend to continue climbing, making his 82% FT shooting that much more valuable. He’s a lock to be a Top 20 player, but he has room for improvement is in his steals and threes. Roy grabbed 1.1 steals and made 1.1 treys per game last season, and he’s done that for most of his career. If he could manage to improve each cat slightly, he’d become a Top 10 fantasy player.
Lock For: Top 20
Good Shot At: Top 15
Potential For: Top 10
LaMarcus Aldridge
When you look at Aldridge’s ‘08-09 stats, they don’t look that much better than the year before. However, he really struggled at the beginning of last season (just 15.9 points on 46% FG shooting in November), so to get a better idea of what he’s capable of, let’s just examine his games after November. In those 63 games, LaMarcus averaged a rock solid 18.8 points and 7.7 boards on 49.1% FG and 80.6% FT shooting. Those excellent shooting numbers are reminiscent of Chris Bosh, but Aldridge has even more shot-blocking potential. As a rookie, LaMarcus blocked 73 shots in 1,392 minutes, but last season, he blocked just 4 more shots in 1,612 more minutes. At the age of 24, you get the feeling that he’s about to break out, and if he could pump his block rate back up, he could become a Top 30 fantasy player.
Lock For: Top 50
Good Shot At: Top 40
Potential For: Top 30
Andre Miller
See above.
Lock For: Top 90
Good Shot At: Top 70
Potential For: Top 50
Rudy Fernandez
See above.
Lock For: Top 180
Good Shot At: Top 140
Potential For: Top 100
Greg Oden
See above.
Lock For: Top 200
Good Shot At: Top 150
Potential For: Top 100
Travis Outlaw
Outlaw has 6 years of NBA experience, but he still’s very young (turns 25 in September) and has yet to earn a permanent starting job. Once he starts getting 32+ minutes every game, he’ll be a great source of points, threes, and blocks, but he may have to move out of Portland for that to happen. If he played for someone like Mike D’Antoni, Outlaw could probably be a Top 100 player, but Portland has more talent and plays at a slower pace. As a result, your expectations must be tempered.
Lock For: Top 225
Good Shot At: Top 175
Potential For: Top 125
Joel Przybilla
He’s pretty limited offensively, but Przybilla has been a stable defensive presence for Portland. In 42 starts last year, he averaged 9.6 boards and 1.5 blocks on 63% FG shooting. Those are respectable stats for a #2 center, but his minutes will be lowered in 2009-10 as Greg Oden gets more comfortable. He’s still worth a pick in deeper leagues that start 2 centers (as Oden insurance?), but he’ll have a tough time matching last year’s stats.
Lock For: Nothing
Good Shot At: Top 200
Potential For: Top 150
Nicolas Batum
Batum is still only 20, and if his outside shooting continues to improve, he could have Travis Outlaw-like fantasy potential in threes, steals, and blocks. However, his shoulder injury is a concern, and he has too much competition to get solid minutes on a consistent basis. He does have nice upside in deep dynasty leagues.
Lock For: Nothing
Good Shot At: Top 225
Potential For: Top 160
Steve Blake
Blake was one of the more underrated point guards last season, as he was one of just FOUR players to average 5+ assists, 2+ threes, and 1+ steal per game (Billups, Bibby, and Nelson were the others). And if it wasn’t for a separated right shoulder that he suffered last January, he would have finished the season as a Top 100 fantasy player. However, with ‘Dre Miller in town, Blake has no chance of matching those stats, and he’ll struggle to even come close.
Lock For: Nothing
Good Shot At: Top 250
Potential For: Top 200
EVIL’S PREDICTIONS
Projected Record: 57-25
Projected Finish: 1st in Division, 2nd in Conference
Crunch Time Lineup: Miller, Roy, Fernandez, Aldridge, Oden
+/- Curveball Lineup: Roy, Fernandez, Batum, Outlaw, Aldridge
Pleasant Surprise: Oden stays healthy and enjoys a solid sophomore season. He’s still just scratching the surface, but his impact on games is much more noticeable.
Biggest Disappointment: Outlaw sulks thru the beginning of the season because he doesn’t get as much playing time as he’d like, and when he does play, he forces the issue and makes poor decisions.
Bold Prediction: LaMarcus Aldridge will establish himself as an All-Star player, and the Blazers will become one of the elite teams in the league. Before the trade deadline, Portland will send Outlaw & Blake to Chicago for Kirk Hinrich + a future 2nd round pick. However, they’ll fall short in the playoffs, losing in the 2nd round so that they can come back even hungrier in 2011.
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*This Portland Trail Blazers team preview was published by Eric Wong of RotoEvil.com on August 15th, 2009. If you enjoyed reading it, please bookmark the site and check out the other free team previews.
If you want to get ALL of the team previews (including updates to this one), stat projections & analysis for 360+ players, in-depth sleeper & strategy articles, and the best draft ratings, player rankings, tiers, and cheatsheets around, then stay tuned for his 2009-2010 Fantasy Basketball Draft Guide. Join hundreds of satisfied customers, and you’ll get everything you need to win your fantasy hoops league.
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Rapt that you have love for my man LaMarcus, I was worried that you’d been distracted by the “Honeys”. Agree wth you that Odaymis would have performed better as a single . Her posture has me asking the same question that Jerry did of guest star Terri Hatcher ….” R they for real”?:?:
ODYAMIS!!!!!!!!!!
These honey videos are straight up….boner-ific.
What numbers i can get from Greg Oden if i draft him?
Do u think that 12-10 with 1.5 – 2 blk and 55%fg and 70%ft is probably?
I think Aldridge is a nice player, but I don’t see a future All Star in him. I watched him twice last year against GS…both times Nellie started Maggette at PF. Aldridge got schooled both times by Maggette (and I’m talking about both offense and defense). You’re not a potential All Star if you’re getting schooled by Maggette. As far as your curveball line-up, they can’t run that front line for too many minutes. Outlaw/Aldridge as the 4/5 is like swiss cheese.
For all of the people saying I’m delusional for saying Aldridge can be an All-Star next season (you’re not the only one Hunter)…
-Have you considered that Yao Ming (the leading vote-getter at center for the West for 7 years in a row) is out for the year?
-Have you considered that Shaq (the #2 leading vote-getter at center for the West last season) is now in the East?
-Have you considered that the #3-5 leading vote-getters at center for the West last season were Bynum, Okur, and Oden?
-Have you considered that Amare (the #2 leading vote-getter at forward for the West last season) will move back to center this year and likely be listed at center on the All-Star ballot?
-Have you considered that David West has made the All-Star team 2 years in a row?
-Have you considered that the teams with the best records at the break always get extra consideration for having multiple players make the team? (see the 2006 All-Star game in which FOUR Detroit players made it)
-Have you considered that this year’s All-Star game is in Dallas, where Aldridge grew up? (extra motivation)
-Have you considered reading this article to see how “special” LaMarcus can be?
http://blog.oregonlive.com/behindblazersbeat/2009/04/blazers_aldridge_moving_from_p.html
-Have you considered that I consider all of these things before I make predictions and projections?
So if Tim Duncan is the leading vote-getter at power forward (likely) and Amare is the leading vote-getter at center (likely), then there will probably be 4 spots left for Western reserve big men (7 bigs made the team last year, but 6 makes more sense). Pau and Dirk are virtual locks to make the team.
That leaves 2 more spots…
-Blake Griffin? Will only be considered if the Clippers get off to a red-hot start.
-Millsap or Okur? Only have a chance if Boozer gets moved, and even then, it seems unlikely.
-Al Jefferson? Not if his team sucks per usual.
-Nene? It’s possible, but he would have to build on what he did last season.
-Andrew Bynum or Odom? They’ll get considered if LA has the best record, but their numbers won’t be as good as other candidates.
-David West? I like the guy, but he didn’t really deserve to make the team last year or the year before.
-Who else??? Biedrins? A. Randolph? Z. Randolph? Marion? Scola? Okafor? Love? Oden?
NOPE.
LaMarcus Aldridge.
decent points about the apparent absence of big man talent in the West at this time. I still don’t see Aldridge as an All-Star type, but he could slip into the discussion. Nevertheless, an All Star berth doesn’t make you a fantasy stud (see: Mo Williams)…so talking whether he will be an All Star or not is probably immaterial for this group. Also, I’m not going to get wrapped up in a contest where the actual better player (i.e., AlJeff) may lose out to a lesser player who happens to play on a better team (i.e., Aldridge). Also, I’m guessing Amare is listed at forward. First, the NBA doesn’t always use the position you play…but rather the position you should play. Second, I think Amare is going to be the starting PF for the Suns, with the lesser Lopez being given a chance at center. Finally, given some of the departures to the East, I wouldn’t be surprised if the West pared it down to 5 big men…and adding a more deserving player like Durant or D-Will. If I’m picking the West All-Star team, I’m going with:
PG: Cp3, D-Will, T.Parker
SG: Kobe, Roy
SF: Durant, Melo
PF: Duncan, Dirk, Amare
C: Pau, AlJeff
For fantasy, I’m in the camp of saying that his value is closer to Zach Randolph than top 30-40. Portland still has a lot of weapons…and a slow pace…so he’s not going to be the man like Bosh is in Toronto. I don’t see Aldridge significantly increasing his ppg and his rebounding skills are medicore for a big man…so he’s not going to make a big jump there either. The percentages are nice, but for him to make a jump up from the Z-Bo range, he needs to step up his blocks…and, for a soft player, I’m not sold on that happening.
Well, sometimes players who don’t deserve it end up starting in the All-Star game (see Iverson last year), so whether a player makes it or not isn’t really a big deal in my mind.
Even if Aldridge doesn’t make the team, he’s going to play like an All-Star CALIBER player.
You and many others think that Aldridge is soft. I used to think the same way. I’ve turned the corner, and now I’m a believer.
Most sports fans based their opinions on “what have you done for me lately?” rather than pondering what said player might do in the future. That’s why Aldridge has been labeled soft. That’s why Big Z was labeled as injury-prone for his first 4 seasons. But people mature, and things change.
Aldridge isn’t as soft as you think he is…
Aldridge DID play soft for the first half of the season last year. But he was a sophomor…very young. The second half he began to pour it on. He had an all star half season after the break last year. In particular, the last 10-15 games, he was stellar.
Remember, he was drafted ahead of Brandon Roy (2,6 respectively), and many feel that he has more potential than Brandon. As much as this line is overused, big men often take much longer to develop. It’s true.
I have to agree. LMA will be an all star this year, and will continue for years to come.
So no mention of Martell Webster? If you’re going to throw Claver a bone, you have to mention Webster. He certainly has a chance to take some of those SF minutes from Batum and Outlaw. He’s only 22, is probably the best outside shooter of the three, and was the starting SF for most of the 07-08 season. He should be back from his injury unless I missed something.
No you’re right, Webster does deserve a mention. I was waiting for some kind of update on him, and sure enough, this article dropped over the weekend saying that he’ll be cleared to practice in 2 weeks.
http://www.columbian.com/article/20090815/BLOGS05/908159989/-1/BLAZERBANTER
Good news for him, but I still think he’ll have to prove a LOT to coach Nate before he gets back in his rotation. Batum and Rudy were very impressive as rookies, and I believe they’ve moved ahead of him.
I’m sure some people not looking at the big picture are going to say “but Rudy’s too small to play small forward.” Well, that’s true, which is why B. Roy slides over to the “3″ when he’s in the game with Fernandez.
Quite simply, I believe that McMillan would rather play Roy at the 2 and Batum at the 3, or Rudy at the 2 and Roy at the 3, before he plays Roy and Webster together.
Webster shot 35.7% 3P as a rookie. Batum shot 36.9% 3P as a rookie. If you throw out Nic’s dreadful December, he made 38.6% of his threes. Webster’s career-best is 38.8%.
It’s reasonable to expect Batum’s outside shot to keep improving, and if he can be as reliable as Webster is from beyond the arc, then what’s the point of playing Webster?
After all, isn’t Martell known for his shooting ability? But if Batum’s outside shot is just as consistent, AND he’s a superior defender, AND he runs the floor better, then who wins the battle?
Webster might be bigger than Rudy, but Fernandez is the better shooter, and his all-around offensive game is miles ahead of Martell’s, who has probably lost a ton of confidence after sitting out a whole year.
So yes, I’ll write more about Webster later, but as you can see, I’m not a big fan.
I agree about your take with Batum / Webster. Although I think Webster can become a very good player, he doesn’t have the same physical tools that Batum has. If Nicolas can improve his shooting, the job is his…
…at least until Claver comes over.
Portland’s just too loaded at SF…way too loaded. With Claver, they have 5 guys who can play that spot…not including Cunningham (who is probably more suited to play PF).
Miller’s got about 2-3 quality years left. After that, I see some kind of a transition with Portland giving up a top level SF for a top level PG to take over for Miller.
I thought this was an all around good and well written preview. I do agree with you that Oden will improve this year. I think the team USA workout helped him by playing against the best. I also agree that Aldridge will be an all star. With the blazers being one of the top teams in the west, the lack of talented big men in the east, and Aldridge still growing as a player, I see him getting the final nod on the west squad. All the blazers need to do is ship outlaw to free up some more time for scoring threat Rudy and defensive stopper Batum. Great analysis Evil!
yeah Oden will improve this year but can he stay healthy? I don’t think so… he has a leg size discrepancy – his right leg is longer than the other… this will actually cause more pressure in his right leg… and this may also explain the early wear & tear of his right knee… remember these bigs are already putting a lot of pressure on there legs because of their size… perfect example is Yao…
aside from that he has a bulging disk… he was out in some period last season because of back pain…
I haven’t seen him since last season, is he in better shape than last season?
Nobody knows about Oden’s health…or Miller’s for that matter.
Prior to this rash of injuries, he really hadn’t had any injuries serious enough to keep him sidelined. Contrary to popular opinion, he really isn’t injury prone. He’s just had 3 consecutive ones.
His long term history has been generally healthy.
A couple additional points…
The number I heard was that he had one leg 1/2 inch longer than the other. Everyone has one leg slightly longer than the other. It’s not unusual at all. And the word I heard was that it wasn’t supposed to be an issue at all. The Portland staff and doctors didn’t seem to be concerned about it in the least.
One disagreement with evil. Why DOESN’T Oden have the potential to be as good (or better) than Howard? If he’s healthy, he has that potential…absolutely. You made the point yourself about how his numbers stacked up to Dwight’s. He’s a completely different player than Dwight (2″ taller, longer, stronger, not as quick), but if he stays healthy, he has just as much, or more potential. Whether or not he realizes that potential is another matter.
Nice job. Only criticism – Paul Allen doesn’t own the Sounders. Drew Carey does, of all people, along with several others.
Thanks SS, but according to this link, BOTH Allen and Carey are minority owners:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seattle_Sounders_FC#Ownership_and_team_management
And now back to hoops…
they will kisck some ass this year
Um, perhaps you should rethink your entire post….you totally left out Webster in your analysis.
I see Webster in E’s analysis. He’s the 3rd string SF behind Outlaw and Batum in a battle with Rudy and Roy for any other minutes that’ll be availble.
PDX what do you expect of Webster? What kind of minutes do you see him getting? What kind of stats will he put up?
The guy just missed the entire year and has been replaced by Batum who statistically speaking is just as good if not better regarding O and D.
If you’re a Blazers fan and you want to say Webster got something on Rudy I’d love to read your case cuzz imo Rudy is the best SF on the team.
..and Outlaw is Outlaw.
Webster is in purgatory.
Just believe us guy
yeah believe us…wait believe who? what are you talking about buddy?
oh snap i didn’t realize he posted 8 days ago. that’s years in the virtual world.
Good call on not sleeping on Greg Oden. I’m thinking round 8 in a 12 team league. Btw, the round targets last year were helpful. Will there be something similar in the draft guide? Thanks.
Hey IG.
Glad the round targets were helpful last year, but this year I’ve replaced that with the “Lock/ Good Chance/ Potential” rankings. The obvious reason why is that some leagues have 10 teams, some have 12, some have 14, etc. so the round targets wouldn’t be accurate for everyone.
I think by using the “Lock for/ Good Chance at/ Potential for” suggestions along with my actual rankings (and everything else included in the draft guide), you’re going to have everything you need on draft day.
Had Aldridge on a team of mine last year. I won the league, but I’ll tell you right now, he is fools gold unless you have a good shotblocker to compensate. I wouldn’t use one of my 1st 3 picks on a big that doesnt block shots effectively and/or isnt an elite level scorer/rebounder.
Aldridge is an above average scorer, an average rebounder, & an average defender for his position. Usually you can find something like him later in a Charlie V type(someone who gets considerably less hype, but can help you in nearly the same ways).
Fact of the matter is, there are better options than LA in the 1st 3 rounds(assuming 16 tm league). Typically, there are better scorers/rebounders/defenders i’m sure. LA is okay, but trust me you’re gonna win you’re league if he is 3rd best player unless he has a break out year where he suddenly improves his rebs/blks, or becomes an elite scorer. He will frustrate the hell out of you if you’re expecting top3 production because for me last year, he was not reliable. luckily my team was absoltely stacked with the likes of DWill, Durant, Melo, Jamison, Harringtn, Mayo, RWestbook, Big Z, J Oneal, Terry, Posey, Pietrus, to where I was able to still be effective and win league.
In sum, Aldridge is a very nice complementary piece, but he will NOT carry you or put ypu over the top in any 1 category. I repeat, NOT ONE CATEGORY will he help carry you other than scoring. Remember that. Take him if you can get him at a bargain, but dont expect him to win you any categories. His only value to me is that he is a PF/C eligible player, and good scorer for a center. Much better options if your looking for true big men #’s like rebs/blk.