2009-2010 Team Preview: Washington Wizards
August 11, 2009 by Evil E
Is Gilbert Arenas ready to bounce back?
LAST SEASON
By far, the Wizards were the worst team in the Eastern Conference (the Knicks were 2nd to last and they had 13 more wins). After 5 full seasons as Washington’s head coach, Eddie Jordan was fired just 11 games into the season due to a 1-10 record. Many felt his dismissal was unjust, but he was replaced by Ed Tapscott nonetheless. Tapscott went 18-53 in his 1st year as a head coach, and Washington finished 19-63, missing the playoffs for the 1st time in 5 years.
Of course, their season was derailed by injuries, as their star point guard (Arenas) and starting center (Brendan Haywood) combined to play just 8 games. Caron Butler and DeShawn Stevenson also missed large chunks of the season, forcing younger players such as Dominic McGuire, Andray Blatche, and JaVale McGee to step up and play more minutes. The emergence of McGuire was a pleasant surprise, as he proved to be a solid and versatile contributor.
As far as team stats go, the Wizards were bad all around, but it starts on the defensive end. They were dead last in assists allowed (24.6 per game), made threes allowed (8.2 per game), and opponents effective field goal percentage (53.3%), suggesting that they gave up a lot of easy buckets and didn’t make much of a commitment to playing hard-nosed D. They struggled offensively as well, making just 33% of their threes (29th) and shooting an effective field goal percentage of just 48.0% (29th). It was a forgettable year all around.
MANAGEMENT
Main Owner: Abe Pollin
General Manager: Ernie Grunfeld
Head Coach: Flip Saunders
Abe Pollin and his wife Irene have been married for 65 years and have owned the Washington Bullets/Wizards for 45 years. But here’s what you really need to know: the final straw that made Abe get rid of the “Bullets” name was the assassination of his longtime friend, Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin. “Believe me when I say it was not an easy decision. I won a World Championship under the name Bullets,” he says. There are probably a lot of interesting stories that surround franchise name changes.
Now let’s go to Ernie Grunfeld. I never saw him play, but I guess the dude could BALL! In college he played at the University of Tennessee alongside future NBA star Bernard King, and together the “Ernie and Bernie Show” averaged about 50 points per game. In fact, Grunfeld left as the school’s all-time leading scorer, and he held that title until Allan Houston surpassed him in 1993. As for his general manager skills, he had success with both the Knicks and Bucks before joining Washington in June 2003. He DID trade Kwame Brown to the Lakers for Caron Butler, so he deserves a lot of credit there, but his decision to give Arenas and his surgically repaired knee $111 million was rather questionable.
Once the ‘08-09 season ended, the Wizards hired Flip Saunders to become their new head coach. The deal is worth $18 million over 4 years, and he’s expected to make them winners again. For his NBA coaching career, he’s won nearly 60% of his regular season games, but he’s had some trouble in the postseason. From 1997 to 2003, his Minnesota teams never got past the 1st round. And while he got over that hump in 2004, his last 4 postseason squads have all lost in the Eastern Conference Finals. Style-wise, it will be interesting to see how the Wizards adapt to Flip’s more traditional half-court sets (as opposed to Eddie Jordan’s “Princeton offense”).
OFFSEASON MOVES
Key Additions: Mike Miller, Randy Foye, Fabricio Oberto
Key Losses: #5 pick, Darius Songaila, Etan Thomas, Oleksiy Pecherov
Just before the 2009 NBA Draft, the Wizards traded away the #5 overall pick (which turned out to be Ricky Rubio) along with Songaila, Thomas, and Pecherov to Minnesota for talented veterans Mike Miller and Randy Foye. For their NBA careers, Miller is a 40% 3-point shooter and Foye is a 37% 3-point shooter, so at least their outside shooting will be better next season. The move was also a good indicator that the Wizards want to win NOW rather than build for the future.
Since they lost 3 big men in the trade, they bolstered their frontcourt by adding former Spurs center Fabricio Oberto. Several teams were interested in the 34-year old Argentine, but he chose Washington because he thinks he’ll have a better chance to play while winning. However, the additions of Oberto and Miller mean that the Wiz now have 8 players who are 27 years or older!
DEPTH CHART
PG: Gilbert Arenas / Randy Foye / Mike James
SG: Mike Miller / Nick Young / Javaris Crittenton
SF: Caron Butler / Dominic McGuire / DeShawn Stevenson
PF: Antawn Jamison / Andray Blatche
C: Brendan Haywood / Fabricio Oberto / JaVale McGee
ROTATION / PLAYING TIME
Thanks to the return of several injured players and the addition of quality veterans, the Wizards are now one of the deepest teams in the Eastern Conference. As a result, they’re one of the more intriguing teams, and figuring out their new rotation will be essential for projecting each player’s upcoming fantasy value. Interestingly enough, Saunders has already said that he intends to use an 8-man rotation: “When you start playing too many players, what happens is no one gets in to any kind of flow. My philosophy’s always been you play eight players, nine and ten play when you have some foul trouble which you’re gonna usually have in a game. If you’re eleven and twelve, you better be working to get to nine and ten.”
So let’s start at point guard, where Arenas simply HAS to stay healthy for this team to do some damage. Before he tore his MCL in 2007, Gilbert was a 40+ minute player, but things are different now. Since they have a lot of money invested in him, it would be unwise for Washington to play him that much every night. If he’s healthy, 36 mpg sounds ideal. At shooting guard, Flip Saunders has yet to name his starter, but I’m pretty certain that Mike Miller will be there on opening night. He’s capable of more, but due to their depth, he’ll likely get just 28-30 minutes of action.
Foye proved to be much more effective at shooting guard last year, but he’ll need to step up his PG skills this season if he wants extra playing time. Right now, I’m projecting 20-24 mpg for Foye backing up both guard spots. Of course, the up and coming Nick Young will have something to say about that. Depending on how hard he works in practice and how consistently he performs in games, Young could get anywhere from 18 to 28 minutes. Mike James and Crittenton will battle for the remaining backcourt minutes, but if Arenas goes down again, there will be more playing time for everyone.
At the forward spots, both Butler and Jamison are used to playing 38-40 mpg, but their minutes should dip slightly (to 36-37) in 2009-2010. Last year, Stevenson (25 starts, 27.7 mpg) struggled with a back injury, which paved the way for McGuire to get 57 starts and 26.2 minutes of action. In ‘09-10, both players will battle for the backup small forward spot, and neither is likely to get more than 10-12 mpg barring an injury to Butler.
Andray Blatche spent a lot of time at center last year, but that was because Haywood was hurt. Now that he’s healthy, Brendan will start at center again and get 26-30 mpg. Meanwhile, Blatche, McGee, and Oberto will battle to be the first big man off the bench. They all have different strengths, so it will be interesting to see who Flip goes to. To start the season, I’m projecting 14-16 minutes for Oberto, 12-14 minutes for Blatche, and 10-12 minutes for McGee. However, JaVale’s length and talent is undeniable, and his playing time will surely rise as the season goes on.
Preseason Battle to Watch: Foye vs. Young
Nick Young played great in summer league action, averaging 23.8 points on 50% shooting from the field. However, it wasn’t how MANY points he scored that impressed people, but HOW he scored them. Rather than overdribbling and going 1-on-1 all the time (as he’s done most his life), he got the majority of his summer league shots by coming off of screens. In fact, he did it so well that some teammates are now comparing him to Rip Hamilton (who played for Saunders in Detroit). Of course, Young is still very inexperienced and he doesn’t do much besides score, but can Washington afford to stunt his growth by not giving him enough playing time?
We’ll find out this season, because Foye is going to do everything he can to steal his minutes away. He’s a better ball-handler than Young, but he still needs to improve his playmaking skills, especially in a half-court offense. Foye has also been a below-average defender in the past, so that’s another area that he needs to work on. Watch these two closely in training camp, because one will likely emerge while the other sees a reduced role.
Odd Man Out: Dominic McGuire
McGuire had a nice breakout season in ‘08-09, starting 56 games for the injury-depleted Wizards. He averaged just 4.5 points on 43% FG shooting, but he pleased fantasy owners in deep leagues by contributing 6.4 boards, 3.3 assists, 1.0 steals, and 1.1 blocks in 31.7 minutes as a starter. Those are very respectable numbers, but he needed several players to get hurt to get that much playing time. Unfortunately, Washington is a lot deeper this year, and McGuire has virtually no chance of matching last year’s stats. I still like his length and active athleticism, but his offense will have to be much improved if he wants to crack Flip’s rotation.
DON’T SLEEP ON: Gilbert Arenas
As a Warriors fan, I have mixed feelings about Gilbert. I liked him when he played at Arizona, and I was stoked when Golden State selected him in the 2nd round of the 2001 draft. By 2002 I knew he’d become a star, and I was hoping the Warriors would pay him whatever it took to keep him from leaving. Of course, Arenas bolted for Washington after just 2 seasons, and from 2004 to 2007, he emerged one of the top guards in the league (3rd team All-NBA in ‘04-05 and ‘05-06, 2nd team All-NBA in ‘06-07). Remember that game in L.A. against the Lakers where he dropped 60 points and his team won in OT? At that point, he was on top of the world: #3 scorer in the league, #1 sports blogger, NBA Live cover boy, yadda yadda yadda.
But as his stats soared and his celebrity grew to superstar proportions, Gilbert’s ego also expanded. For his 25th birthday, he threw a MILLION DOLLAR PARTY. In his blog, he started talking about Halo 3 so much that you may have wondered if he cared more about that than basketball. And when Rotowire and NBA.com teamed up to publish their fantasy basketball Point Guard Rankings for the ‘07-08 season, here’s what Arenas had to say about it:
“NBA.com has me ranked as the No. 1 fantasy point guard. That’s what I’m talking about. Showing the love. My swagger got me No. 1. It wasn’t my actual basketball skills, it was my swag. Steve Nash’s swag is not like mine. He may throw them dimes, but I throw the one-liner. Nash, Kidd, Chris Paul and Deron Williams round out the top five. That’s a great list to have behind me. Those guys deserve to be back there. That’s nice. Ha.”
From the moment he signed with the Wizards, I started to loathe “Agent Zero” more and more. He went from “fun & quirky” to “self-centered & annoying” real quick. So when he tore his MCL in 2007 and missed most of the following season, I didn’t feel bad for the guy. I accepted it as karma biting him in the ass and I figured I wasn’t alone in this regard. On a bum knee, Arenas could play video games for a week straight if he wanted to.
Fast forward to today, and Arenas has missed the majority of the past two seasons. It’s been over 28 months since he first had surgery on his knee. He needed a second surgery to “repair further damage” and a THIRD surgery to “remove debris.” Many NBA fans have written him off. He hasn’t updated his NBA.com blog since last November, so he’s basically been hiding out. He is no longer a “celebrity blogger” and he is no longer considered a Top 20 player, fantasy or otherwise.
But I believe in peaks and valleys, and Arenas has had to endure a pretty long stretch of pain, rehab, doubters, and haters. Much like the bad karma he had coming to him before, he may be in line for some good karma in the immediate future. Why should you believe me? Well for starters, he has tons of critics, which means he has plenty of motivation to prove that he’s still one of the best and is worthy of the $111 million contract he signed a year ago.
At 27 years old, Gilbert is no longer a “youngster,” and I hope that he has matured both on and off the court. In my opinion, part of maturity is learning how to take better care of your body (after all, you only get one). In the past, Arenas used to do a lot of biking in the offseason, which doesn’t seem very smart when you’re rehabbing a knee injury. This summer however, Arenas has been in Chicago, where he’s been training with Tim Grover of Attack Athletics.
In case you don’t know the history behind Attack Athletics, it was founded in 1989. That year, Michael Jordan started working with Grover in hopes of improving his strength and quickness. I guess it worked, and word started to get around, because now Grover works with many of the league’s top players. Last summer, he helped Dwyane Wade return to his “Top 5 player in the world” status (see the video below). This past season, Grover was Kobe Bryant’s EXCLUSIVE personal trainer, traveling from city to city to work with the Finals MVP. This summer, Arenas, Jermaine O’Neal, and Tracy McGrady are all working with Grover in hopes of improving their left knee injuries (and their bodies in general).
Will Arenas be the next NBA player to benefit from Grover’s magic touch? Will he re-gain that quick first step and be able to play without thinking of his knee? Only time will tell, but I think he’s due for a bounceback year. He may not average 28+ points ever again, but Gil still has the potential to be a Top 15 fantasy player. If he falls to you at the end of round 3 (or better yet, round 4), don’t be afraid to pull the trigger.
BE CAREFUL OF: Randy Foye
As stated above, Foye is in a tight spot. He’s not a natural point guard, but that’s where he’ll need to earn a lot of his minutes this year. At shooting guard, he has to compete with the more versatile Mike Miller and the younger Nick Young for playing time. I don’t believe Young is the superior player, but he could earn more minutes because his development is more important to Washington’s future. Foye needed 36 minutes per game to put up his stats last year, and the only way he’ll be able to match those numbers is if Arenas goes down. If Gilbert stays healthy, Randy will only chip in with a few assists, 1+ trey per game, and solid free throw shooting, so if you take him in the first 12 rounds you’ll be making a mistake.
Prospect to Keep an Eye on: JaVale McGee
Of course it’s McGee. Sporting an incredible standing reach of 9 feet, 6 1/2 inches, JaVale is one of the longest players in the league, and he’s also extremely mobile and athletic. Thanks to those tools alone, McGee is an elite prospect, so it didn’t come as a big surprise when he was invited to the recent Team USA minicamp. However, for all his potential, he still has a lot of holes in his game.
A major weakness for “Lemonhead” is his lack of strength. He weighed 244 pounds as a rookie and got backed down easily. He says he weighs 250 now, and if he can continue to add functional strength, it should help him quite a bit. Of course, he also needs to improve his footwork and add some efficient low post moves, because assistant coach Randy Wittman had this to say about McGee after a recent summer league game: “In the post he’s just settling for fallaway jump shots, there’s nothing to the basket. He’s got to become a stronger player, he’s got to get physically stronger and then he’s got to play that way when he’s in the post.”
Clearly the former Nevada star has room for improvement, but he’s still just 21 years old. So keep an eye on his progress, and see if he has the work ethic to become a legit #1 center down the road. Even if you don’t care about his development or Washington’s future, you should at least tune in for the hundreds of nasty dunks and blocks that he’ll surely account for over the next few years. As a rookie last season, McGee was 8th with 1 dunk every 14.65 minutes played, and 14th with 1 block every 15.2 minutes played.
Most Likely to Miss 20+ Games: Caron Butler
Since I believe in karma and Tim Grover, I’m going with Butler instead of Arenas as my player most likely to miss 20+ games. I’ve actually been a big fan of Caron since his UConn days, but he simply hasn’t lived up to his “Tough Juice” nickname. The guy played in a career-high 78 games his rookie season, but it’s been all downhill since: 68, 77, 75, 63, 58, and 67 games played. That’s an average of 19.3 games missed over his last 3 seasons, or nearly 1/4 of the NBA season. When he’s played, he’s logged heavy minutes and has put up excellent all-around stats, but if he’s a lock to miss 15+ games, then he must be discounted severely.
That’s where my Injury Ratings come into play. Rather than trying to PREDICT games played by projecting stats for the entire season, I project per game stats while adding in an “Injury Rating” component to reflect how likely one is to play in all 82 games. Last year, I gave Butler a rating of .4 out of 2.5. For 2009-2010, I’m increasing my max Injury Rating to 3.0, and I’m going to dole out more negative scores as well. Unless I hear something very positive about Caron’s body before the season starts, he’ll likely get an Injury Rating around 0, which will surely drop him out of my Top 25 overall ratings.
Most Likely to Put Up Big Stats After an Injury: Mike Miller
Miller fell off BIG TIME last season, and now people are wondering if the 29-year old swingman is on the decline. I don’t think so. Playing for Minnesota last year, that team was horrible, and Miller often had the offense run thru him. Being an unselfish player, Mike didn’t mind, so he rarely shot the ball but dished out 4.5 dimes and pulled down 6.6 boards per game. But Miller was placed in that spot because Foye was better off the ball and Telfair was much smaller and less skilled. After Al Jefferson went down, Miller didn’t have any veterans to help him out, and surely his intensity wasn’t at high as it could be.
So things should be different this year. Playing with skilled offensive vets such as Arenas, Butler, and Jamison will take a lot of pressure off Miller, so he should be able to come off screens and spot up for more threes. His assists will dip, but he’ll still drop around 3.5 dimes because he loves to set his teammates up. He’ll have trouble earning more than 30 mpg to start the year, but if any guard or forward gets hurt, Miller’s minutes and shot attempts will go up. He still has Top 75 potential, but he might need a player or two to get hurt to reach it.
PLAYER PROFILES / RANKING POTENTIAL
Gilbert Arenas
See above.
Lock For: Nothing
Good Shot At: Top 30
Potential For: Top 15
Caron Butler
See above.
Lock For: Top 50
Good Shot At: Top 30
Potential For: Top 15
Antawn Jamison
When you consider that he missed just 1 game last season, Jamison’s final season stats were similar to that of a Top 20 player. He has indeed earned the “Ironman” tag, because he’s played 79+ games in 7 of the last 9 seasons. He’s also a great source of points, rebounds, threes, and steals, altho both his FG% and FT% are usually below average. With the return of Arenas, Antawn’s points are likely to decline from over 22 to under 20, and his rebounds and steals could also decrease slightly. He’ll still be one of the more dependable forwards around, but at the age of 33, his upside isn’t what it used to be.
Lock For: Top 50
Good Shot At: Top 40
Potential For: Top 30
Mike Miller
See above.
Lock For: Top 125
Good Shot At: Top 100
Potential For: Top 75
Brendan Haywood
Haywood missed most of last season with a wrist injury, but he returned in April to put up solid numbers. The year before, he averaged 10.6 points, 7.2 boards, and 1.7 blocks, and there’s no reason why he can’t duplicate those numbers. Where you have to be careful with Brendan is his free throw shooting. He made a solid (for a center) 73.5% of his freebies in ‘07-08, but before that he was a sub-60% FT shooting. If he struggles from the line he’ll have trouble being a Top 150 player, but if he can shoot 70% FT while increasing his blocks to nearly 2 per game, then Haywood could actually be a solid #2 center. That’s a lot of “ifs” tho.
Lock For: Top 160
Good Shot At: Top 130
Potential For: Top 100
Randy Foye
See above.
Lock For: Nothing
Good Shot At: Top 180
Potential For: Top 140
Nick Young
See above.
Lock For: Nothing
Good Shot At: Top 190
Potential For: Top 150
JaVale McGee
See above.
Lock For: Nothing
Good Shot At: Top 225
Potential For: Top 175
Andray Blatche
The problem with Blatche is that he plays behind Jamison, a guy that rarely gets injured. He also won’t get many minutes at center this season, so he won’t be worth drafting in smaller leagues.
Lock For: Nothing
Good Shot At: Top 225
Potential For: Top 180
Dominic McGuire
Only has a chance if Butler gets hurt. Sneaky source of steals and blocks in deep 30-team leagues.
Lock For: Nothing
Good Shot At: Top 250
Potential For: Top 200
EVIL’S PREDICTIONS
Projected Record: 40-42
Projected Finish: 4th in Division, 9th in Conference
Crunch Time Lineup: Arenas, Miller, Butler, Jamison, Haywood
+/- Curveball Lineup: Arenas, Young, Butler, Jamison, McGee
Pleasant Surprise: Nick Young starts to show some maturity in his game, feeling much more confident in Flip Saunders’ new offense. He’ll still struggle on D, but he’ll have several high-scoring games and click well with Arenas and company.
Biggest Disappointment: JaVale McGe struggles to set solid screens and stay focused on defense because he’s having so much fun running the floor and cutting to the hoop for alleyoop dunks. Flip Saunders makes him ride the pine for awhile as a result, robbing NBA fans of seeing McGee’s incredible blend of length and athleticism. JaVale’s stats will suffer, and while he’ll get more playing time eventually, we’ll have to wait at least another year for his potential breakout season.
Bold Prediction: Arenas will play in 75+ games for the first time in a good while, and while he won’t be quite as agressive as he used to be, he’ll do a better job of setting up his teammates. I see him challenging his career-high of 6.3 assists that he dropped in his 2nd year with the Warriors, and I see his FG% improving to over 42% as he does a better job of picking his spots. The Wizards will upset several top teams, but they’ll struggle on the road and will just miss out on the playoffs.
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*This Washington Wizards team preview was published by Eric Wong of RotoEvil.com on August 11th, 2009. If you enjoyed reading it, please check out the other free team previews.
If you want to get ALL of the team previews (including updates to this one), stat projections & analysis for 360+ players, in-depth sleeper & strategy articles, and the best draft ratings, player rankings, tiers, and cheatsheets around, then stay tuned for his 2009-2010 Fantasy Basketball Draft Guide. Join hundreds of satisfied customers, and you’ll get everything you need to win your fantasy hoops league.
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I forgot to add: further examination of Flip Saunders’ effect on the Wizards will be included in the Draft Guide. In that exclusive article, we will examine what impact Flip had on his former teams and former players, and how we can use that info to make more accurate stat projections for Washington in 2009-2010.
I agree that breaking down minute allotment for some key players is tough on this team. We know, as long as they are healthy, Arenas/Butler/Jamison will get their minutes…and Haywood, to a lesser extent. Miller/Foye/Young/Mac will battle for minutes at the 1-2-3 spots. I’m with you on Foye being a bit overvalued this year. Last year, I thought a big break-out was coming. What we saw, however, was simply another combo guard who was not going to develop into a full time starting PG in the NBA. he’s serviceable as a second PG, but since this team is now stacked at SG-eligible guys, Foye’s stats are going to decline this year (NOTE: if you’re in a dynasty league and Foye puts up lesser stats during the first half, you might want to try to acquire him as his value could swing up next year if he signs into a better/less crowded situation). Blatche is capable of being a late round gem…but only if he gets enough minutes.
You know I love Lemonhead’s potential, but I’m with you on him being undraftable in most leagues this year. Sure, he’ll have at least a handful of nice games, but the consistency won’t be there. One thing to remember is that big men usually take more time to develop. They generally need to learn footwork and, mostly, get stronger. That usually doesn’t happen in a year. For a recent example, see Bynum, Andrew. Forgetting his unfortunate injuries the last 2 years, Bynum is considered one of the top young centers in the league. However, during his first 2 years in the league, Bynum was an afterthought … not even Kobe realized the big step up Bynum would make in year 3 as he wanted Bynum traded (or at least someone more established brought in). Also, you might want to check that sentence on the dunks per minutes played for McGee…as you have 2 different numbers.
“Also, you might want to check that sentence on the dunks per minutes played for McGee…as you have 2 different numbers.”
Huh? I put up a dunk stat and a BLOCK stat. Truth be told, Hunter is one of the first people I heard raving about McGee’s potential. I agree tho, there’s no need to rush his progress. The main thing is getting him the proper coaching and veteran guidance.
That’s what I get for reading the article at 4:30ish a.m. my time…when I should have been sleeping.
Damn E these previews are LOADED with solid fantasy NBA insight & statistics. Cant wait to dominate my leagues again with your draft guide. When is the release date for RotoEvils Draft Guide?
Don’t sleep on: RotoEvils Draft Guide!!!!!! hahaha!!!!
The NBA season is closer than you realize.
Haha. Yeah, it’s right around the corner. I’m trying to pace myself. Currently focusing on the teams that have their rosters pretty much set, so I can save the other other ones for later.
Target release date is Oct. 1st. What I’m NOT going to do is rush things and release a lower quality guide.
I’m not saying that’s what Rotoworld is going to do, but in this recent article, they say that “both the hard copy and digital version of our Draft Guide… will be available at some point in the next several weeks.”
http://www.rotoworld.com/content/features/column.aspx?sport=NBA&columnid=47&articleid=33376&pg=2
In order to publish an actual magazine, they’re gonna have to send that to the presses very soon. I’m glad I’m not doing that…
Great preview on the Wizards E! Flip saunders uses an 8 man rotation, he’s done that with all his teams so predictions will be interesting especially with miller, foye, Mcgee, blatche, young and Mcguire. I’m predicting miller will get solid numbers based on comments that Flip has made so far, he’s actually got a great sense of humor, he’s mentioned millers all-around game and Jamison loves millers ability to spread the floor.
Foye is a solid combo guard imo and should see good minutes in Flip’s 8 man rotation. Also B-wood should put up solid numbers no more time share and he’s capable of at least 2 blocks a game and close to a double-double with solid minutes I concur with you on his ft%.
Nick young has looked great in summer league and Gilbert will be a steal in drafts this year one key thing with gil this summer, besides his health, is this: he has his weight down and that explosive 1st step is back that allowed him to blow right by defenders.
Thanks dmc!
I heard that about Arenas losing some weight, but I’m not believing that “his explosive 1st step is back” until I see it with my own eyes. Ya heard??
E – excellent stuff and I look forward to getting the Draft Guide when it comes out.
Did you see this on Arenas today?
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=4394425
Flip says Gilbert’s got his quick back. Your thinking re: Grover could be right on the money.
Thanks Galactic. Very positive news from Flip indeed. I’m going to bump their projected record up to 40-42, but I still need to see Arenas with my own eyes before drafting him in my Top 20 or anything like that.
“Unless I hear something very positive about Caron’s body before the season starts, he’ll likely get an Injury Rating around 0, which will surely drop him out of my Top 25 overall ratings.”
So the top 25 you posted previously, did that not take injuries into account?
No, it did, but I forget that I had put Butler in my Top 25. After all, that was posted FOUR MONTHS AGO! My Top 25 already looks very different, and I hope that no one is trying to rely on those rankings for their draft.
E – do you put out new rankings close to the season that we can use, or is that part of the $$ package (sorry, I’m relatively new here so just trying to clarify, and frankly I think I’ll be happy to pony up)?
No prob, that’s a good question Galactic.
There’s a SLIGHT chance that I’ll put up some updated rankings for free later on, but more likely, I’ll save everything for the Draft Guide. Last year I only ranked the Top 200 players, but this year, I’m ranking the Top 360 to help out those people in super deep leagues.
Very good analysis here, and interesting stuff about Butlers chronic injuries. Im new here and just stumbled across this website, and hoping you could give me some advice.
Im currently in an offline draft thats in the 3rd round and im shocked that Butler/G. Wallace are both still on the board @ in the mid 30’s… my pick is coming up shortly and considering both of these guys. But the fact they are both injury has me struggling with who I should take?
I selected DWill/Melo with my 1st two picks(Hoping Melo will return to an elite scorer status & add hopefully new element to his game in the process). Im just looking for the best value pick-ups right now and I think i’ll worry about trades later.
Other quality guys on the board im looking at include Kev. Martin and Monta Ellis, who I think both are/will be more durable than Butler/Wallace and could be & are also great value pick-up in the low 40’s… I know I also need a big man, but im struggling with who to pick and leaving one of these guys on the board in the early 40’s!!?? Any advice would be appreciated, and I think im definitely gonna buy your draft guide when that comes out, your insight seems to be on point and I look forward to hearing your opinions. Thanks alot bro
Hey Blue Magic. Welcome to my Evil lair!
All 4 of the guys that you’re considering are good value picks at #40 or so. Monta might fall even further since he had an off year, so I would wait on him.
As you mentioned, Butler, G-Wallace, and Kev-Mart are all serious injury risks, but it’s worth taking a gamble on one of them at this point.
Here’s a quick way to look at it:
-Arenas is back and supposedly looking good, Haywood is back, and Miller and Foye are now in town.
-Tyreke is now the man in Sactown, and Thompson and Hawes will continue to improve.
-Charlotte traded Okafor for Chandler, and Felton is still holding out.
Without even looking at any numbers, I would suggest taking G. Wallace based on that simple 30 second analysis. Butler and Martin could see their numbers go down due to offseason moves, while Wallace has a chance to IMPROVE his stats.
Milk Crash for as long as you can, then trade him before he gets hurt.
Good advice E, thanks. Unfortunately getting Wallace in the early 40s wouldve been too good to be true lol. Him & Kmart were just snatched up, and im still 3 picks away looking @ Butler/Jamison or potentially a big like Okafor/Brand/Okur/Booz/Horf…. The decision just got alot tougher now considering how different the reloaded Wizards may be. Im really liking Butler at this value, but I think there will be some guards later who I can get so I may just take a big man…
Jamison is nice, but seems like a bit of a risk because of age and #’s decreasing cuz of the new weapons in WASH. Im kind of leaning towards either Okafor(blks and possible scoring increase) or just snagging Butler right now with my 43rd pick… Curious, what do you think of Okafor though?
Is this for Roto or H2H?
I like Okafor more now that he’s playing w/ Chris Paul, but his FT% is terrible, so you probably don’t want him if it’s H2H.
Butler is probably the safest pick left.
Yes, its a 16 team H2H 9-cat league and I started with the 11th pick… My pick(#43) is coming up next and Tough Juice still on the board so hopefully he’ll fall in my lap… I think I will target Monta/OJ Mayo/EGo with my next pick(54), and then turn my attention to big men after that i guess…
There are still some decent bigs on the board though, like Bargnani, Bienrens, David Lee, Al Harrington, plus those guys that I already mentioned, and more…. I hope Im doing the right thing cuz it’s tough to pass up on some of those bigs, but the guards available seem to have better ‘breakout year’ potential right now. We’ll see, but that’s again for all of the advice my man. Lookin forward to reading some more of your team breakdowns. Good work.
So did you go with Caron?
I like E. Gordon and Monta more than Mayo for your team because Gordon and Ellis won’t drag your FG% down as much, and if Melo bounces back, you’ll have one of the better FG% “small ball” teams if you go that route. You don’t have much 3-point shooting yet, but if you’re going after that cat, Bargnani would definitely help.
Warriors team preview drops tomorrow.
Yup, I ultimately went with Butler/Monta with my two picks. Even though Monta doesnt help me in 3’s like I need, and like OJ & EGo certainly would, he just stood out above those two in my eyes, especially being in Nellies system and with Crawford gone… I just couldnt pass him up. My squad so far is, 2PG’s(Monta/DWill) & 2SF’s(Butler/Carmelo).
With my next pick though, Im targeting a 3pt shooter for sure. Bargs/Memo/OJ/EGo are at the top of my list at the moment. Who do you like better for my team, the big men or the guards? and if big men who between Bargs/Memo? Im leaning towards taking one of the bigs just for the sake of balance, but OJ’s breakout potential for next season really intrigues me… Bargs is solid, but Memo could really have a great yr with Booz on the outs and him also in a contract year. Im torn.
Most likely to miss 20+ games: Antawn Jamison. Will Lemonhead step in to fill the spot?