Breaking Down the 2009 Free Agent Class: Centers
June 9, 2009 by Evil E
The Birdman and Gortat are two of the top available free agent centers this summer, and they’ve only improved their value in the postseason.
Having already examined all of the other positions, here are your 2009 free agent centers.
I’ve done my best to double-check these figures, but if you see something that’s incorrect, please let me know. For the die-hard fantasy players, I’ve added “Fantasy Impact” tidbits where I see fit, but the stats are taking a backseat here. Once we have a clear picture of which players are staying, which players are available, and who the top options are at each position, I will take on the General Manager role and make suggestions for several teams. Enjoy…
Likely to Stay: Guaranteed Contracts
Jermaine O’Neal (Player Option for $23.0 million)
Currently, only 3 players are scheduled to earn $23 million or more next season: Kobe Bryant, Tracy McGrady, and Jermaine O’Neal. One of those players is worth every penny, but the other two have been plagued by injuries and aren’t legit superstars. O’Neal hasn’t played 70+ games in a regular season since ‘03-04, and he averaged just 13 points and 5.4 boards after being traded to Miami. After he exercises his player option, I hope that Jermaine donates a nice chunk of that change to someone who needs it. Fantasy Impact: O’Neal is due for a solid healthy season, but he’s still one of the biggest risks come draft day.
Zydrunas Ilgauskas (Early Termination or $11.5 million)
At exactly 1/2 of Jermaine O’Neals salary, Ilgauskas seems like a bargain. However, at the age of 34, he wouldn’t command such a huge salary on the open market, so Big Z won’t be exercising his early termination option. Of course, when you’re a jump-shooting big man playing with LeBron, your situation is already about as good as it gets.
Eddy Curry (Early Termination or $10.5 million)
After averaging 35.2 mpg in ‘06-07 (under Isiah Thomas), Curry played a TOTAL of just 12 minutes in ‘08-09 (under Mike D’Antoni). Needless to say, he won’t be terminating his contract early. However, what makes his contract so terrible is that he has ANOTHER player option for the 2010-11 season in which he can make $11.3 million more. So when it’s all said and done, Curry will have made over $46 million over 6 seasons from the Knicks. I think that he and his agent owe Knicks fans an apology. Fantasy Impact: expect Curry to bounce back next season…NOT!
Mark Blount (Early Termination or $8.0 million)
After shooting over 50% from the field 4 seasons in a row from 2003 to 2007, Blount made just 38.5% of his shots this past season. If he’s not knocking down jumpers, Blount isn’t very useful, because he’s a terrible rebounder and is limited athletically. He’ll make $8 million next season, but after that his NBA career could be over.
Etan Thomas (Early Termination or $7.4 million)
You have to admire Etan Thomas for coming back from open heart surgery, but he struggled this past season, pulling down only 7.8 rebounds per 36 minutes (compared to 10.9 in ‘06-07). Now that both he and Brendan Haywood are healthy, it will be fun to hear about their practice battles once again. Fantasy Impact: if Etan and Haywood are healthy, that also means fewer minutes for JaVale McGee.
Jerome James (Player Option for $6.6 million)
Jerome who? After playing just 15 minutes in the past TWO seasons combined, it’s hard to remember that this guy is still in the league. Sure enough, James is going to make $6.6 million next season, for a grand total of $43.5 million over his last 8 seasons. In case you’re wondering, his career averages are 4.3 points, 3.1 rebounds, 1.1 blocks, and 2.8 fouls in 13.4 minutes per game. I’d like to see a guard make that kind of money with such lousy numbers.
Kwame Brown (Player Option for $4.1 million)
After ripping on Eddy Curry and Jerome James, there’s no sparing Kwame Brown. The former #1 overall pick has scored 3,256 points and made $46,148,653 in his NBA career, which translates to $14,173.42 per point scored, or a cool $100 grand for every game that he’s played in. It’s hard to believe that he’s only 27, but since he’s a decent defensive player, he’ll likely be in the league for several more years.
Steven Hunter (Early Termination or $3.7 million)
Hunter was once a promising young prospect. Playing for the Suns in ‘04-05, at the age of 23, he shot 61.4% from the field and averaged 3.5 blocks to just 4.5 fouls per 36 minutes. His play has declined since then, and this past season, he fell out of Denver’s rotation and averaged just 1.8 blocks to 6.0 fouls per 36 minutes. He’s still just 26, but since he hasn’t done much recently, he would have trouble making more than $3.7 million per year. As a result he’ll return to the Nuggets, where he’ll only get a chance to play if they fail to re-sign The Birdman.
Francisco Elson (Player Option for $1.7 million)
Elson is also expected to exercise his player option, but at $1.7 million, his salary will be a little easier to swallow. He gives the Bucks another big body behind Andrew Bogut, but at 33 years old, he’s no better than teammate Dan Gadzuric.
Top 5 Centers Available
While I listed the Top 10 players available for all of the other positions, this year’s crop of centers is extremely thin, and in my opinion, only 5 of them will be highly coveted. They are:
1. Mehmet Okur (Early Termination or $9.0 million)
Okur is coming off a very strong season for Utah, and since he just turned 30, he wants to secure a big contract while he still can. Memo has said many positive things about the city of Utah, and he wants to stay in a Jazz uniform, but at the same time, he wants to get paid handsomely. On his website memo13.com, he recently stated: “I will not be changing teams if there is a difference of $3-5 million in the total worth of the new contract. I believe my managers and I have let our feelings be known (to) the Jazz management.” This makes it sound like he’s going to opt out of his contract to see what kind of money he can command as the #1 center available in 2009. Fantasy Impact: assuming he stays in Utah, his stats could go up even further without Boozer around.
2. Rasheed Wallace (Unrestricted)
‘Sheed was a great fit in Detroit, but after 5+ seasons, his Pistons career has come to an end. At the age of 34, Wallace is on the decline. He shot a career-low 41.9% from the field this past season, and his 13.5 points per 36 minutes was his lowest scoring average since his rookie year. However, he can still spread the floor and play rock solid defense, and he has plenty of moxie and experience. Since he could be the “missing piece,” several playoff teams will show interest this summer. One rumor has him going to Cleveland to play with LeBron (intriguing), while another has him retiring if he doesn’t earn $8 million next season (pulling a Sprewell).
3. Chris Andersen (Unrestricted)
In one of the best NBA comeback stories of all-time, Andersen rebounded from a 2-year drug suspension to re-join his former team and help lead them to the Western Conference Finals. Along the way, he finished 2nd in blocked shots and set career-highs in several categories. Now he’s an unrestricted free agent, and I’m guessing that several teams will be contacting his agent on July 1st. His excellent production as an energy big man off the bench is undeniable, but the value of his “Birdman” persona should also be considered. Andersen is one of the most electrifying players in the league, and as a result, he’d be a fan favorite on any team. Surely the Nuggets want to bring him back, but they’ll have to pay a pretty penny to keep him. Fantasy Impact: no matter where he plays, he’ll be one of the best shot-blockers around.
4. Marcin Gortat (Restricted)
The Magic tried to keep Gortat a secret in ‘07-08 by playing him in just 6 regular season games, but in 48 playoff minutes last year, Marcin managed to scored 10 points, pull down 8 boards, and block 4 shots. In 63 regular season games this past year, Gortat made 57% of his shots and averaged 4.6 boards, .8 blocks, and 1.8 fouls in just 12.6 minutes per game. Per 36 minutes, that translates to 13.0 boards (4.4 offensive), 2.4 blocks, and 5.0 fouls. He’s getting valuable playoff experience right now, and at the age of 25, his future looks bright. Orlando would love to keep him, but they’re going to have enough trouble bringing back Hedo Turkoglu. Fantasy Impact: if he lands in the right situation, Gortat could play big minutes next season.
5. Zaza Pachulia (Unrestricted)
Pachulia is actually the same age as Gortat, because he entered the NBA at the tender age of 19. With 6 years of experience under his belt, Zaza has developed into one of the most reliable backup centers in the league. He averaged just 19.1 minutes this past season, but he shot a career-best 49.7% from the field and pulled down 10.7 rebounds per 36 minutes. The Hawks have several free agent decisions to make this summer, and if they don’t act fast, Zaza could be playing for someone else next season.
26 and Under: Decent Talents
Ryan Hollins (Restricted)
This past season, Hollins played in just 45 games and averaged a quiet 3.2 points and 2.2 rebounds. However, it was a solid year for the 24-year old, as his per 36 minute stats translate to 11.6 points, 7.9 rebounds, and 2.6 blocks. He also made 53% of his shots, and that number should rise as he gets more experience. Hollins is an excellent athlete for his size, and due to his relatively young age, I really like his potential. I’m not sure what Charlotte was thinking when they traded him to Dallas for DeSagana Diop, but now the Mavs will be able to match any offer made to Hollins. Fantasy Impact: for those wondering, Erick Dampier still has 2 agonizingly long years left on his contract.
Solomon Jones (Restricted)
Jones hasn’t improved much since his rookie year, so it will be interesting to see if the Hawks choose to bring him back. He’s a rather skinny big man, but his long wingspan and nice leaping ability help him to block and alter shots. His offense still needs a lot of work, and since he turns 25 in July, it’s questionable how high his upside really is.
Joel Anthony (Restricted)
Anthony turned some heads this past season, blocking 93 shots in limited minutes, for an average of 3.2 rejections per 36. Like Jones, Anthony has very long arms and is a restricted free agent this summer. One negative is that, despite only 2 years of NBA experience, Joel is already 26 years old. This means his upside is also limited, so Miami shouldn’t pay a lot to re-sign him. Fantasy Impact: is worth watching if Jermaine O’Neal can’t stay healthy.
Kyrylo Fesenko (Restricted or Team Option for $.9 million)
I’m a fan of Kyrylo Fesenko, but I’m not sure if Jerry Sloan is. The 22-year old still has a lot of maturing to do, but he has a huge body with big soft hands, and is fairly mobile for his size. Comparing both his NBA and D-League stats from his rookie year to sophomore year, he cut back on his turnovers and fouls while improving other aspects of his game. Having a guy like Kirilenko around to mentor him is hugely important, so I hope the Jazz exercise their team option on Fes.
Savvy Veterans: Solid and Cheap
Rasho Nesterovic (Unrestricted)
Believe it or not, Rasho set career highs this past season by averaging 14.0 points and 3.2 assists per 36 minutes played, and he’s shot over 50% from the field 4 seasons in a row. His rebounding and shot-blocking skills have declined, but he’s still a decent player on both ends of the floor, and at the age of 33, but he’s still a solid backup. Will the Pacers re-sign him, or are they ready to lean heavily on Roy Hibbert? Fantasy Impact: if he signs elsewhere, Hibbert and Jeff Foster will get more minutes.
Brian Skinner (Unrestricted or Player Option for $1.3 million)
Skinner was forced to play more minutes than expected due to several Clipper injuries, and he averaged a decent 7.5 points, 5.9 boards, and 1.4 blocks on 47% FG shooting in 21 starts. However, with Chris Kaman healthy and Blake Griffin arriving shortly, there won’t be much need for Skinner’s services in Los Angeles, so the 33-year old may not exercise his player option.
Theo Ratliff (Unrestricted)
Ratliff re-joined the 76ers this past season, the same team where he once averaged a league-best 3.7 blocked shots per game. At the age of 36, he’s still an elite shot-blocker, but after criticizing their coaching staff and skipping their final team meeting, Theo won’t be back in a Philly uniform.
Adonal Foyle (Unrestricted)
Foyle played a total of just 59 minutes this past season for Orlando, and in that limited action, he managed to rack up an incredible 26 rebounds and 8 blocks! So the 34-year old can still be effective, but his real value lies off the court, where he’s one of the smartest and most professional players around.
Sean Marks (Unrestricted)
He played in just 57 NBA games before the age of 29, but since then, Sean Marks has suited up for the Spurs, Suns, and Hornets. He’ll turn 34 in August and his skills are quite limited, but he’s a good 12th man/practice player, so another minimum contract seems likely.
Jamaal Magloire (Unrestricted)
He just turned 31, and he peaked a long time ago, but Magloire is still a serviceable backup center. He played 47 minutes this past postseason, and while he scored just 2 points, he pulled down 11 boards (5 offensive) and racked up 9 personal fouls. His career average of 10.8 rebounds per 36 minutes is very solid, and he’s still a physical defender who’s not afraid to mix it up. Someone will make room for the “Big Cat.”
Borderline Options: Risky or Unproven
Jason Collins (Unrestricted)
Jason Collins has started 429 games in his NBA career, so it’s tough to knock the guy. However, if you look at his detailed on court vs. off court stats, you’ll see that Minnesota was a MUCH better offensive team when he was on the bench, and they were a better defensive team when he was on the bench as well. Sure, he sets good screens and does the dirty work without complaining, but he’s become a major liability, and teams should be wary of signing him.
Lorenzen Wright (Unrestricted)
Over the past two seasons, Lo-Wright has played 286 minutes for 3 different teams, averaging 1.1 points and 1.8 rebounds in the process. He’s never been much of a scorer, but his rebounding rate has declined in recent years, and at the age of 33, it’s unlikely to bounce back. Someone may consider the 13-year veteran, but they’d have to be really desperate.
Mikki Moore (Unrestricted)
In ‘06-07, Mikki Moore had a career-year in New Jersey, averaging 9.8 points and leading the league in FG% by running the floor with Jason Kidd. Overestimating his abilities, the Kings decided to offer Moore $18 million for 3 years. After 1 1/2 disappointing seasons, Sacramento waived him. Luckily, the 3rd year wasn’t fully guaranteed, but they’ll still have to pay him $2 million next season. Mikki played in 24 regular season and 10 postseason games for the Celtics after being waived, but he didn’t give them the boost that they were hoping for (and sorely needed due to Garnett and Powe going down). At 33 years old, he is now a very risky option.
Aaron Gray (Restricted)
The good: Gray has excellent size, is a solid rebounder, and a decent touch around the rim. The bad: everything else. Gray is very limited athletically, so it’s no surprise that he fell out of Chicago’s rotation. He’s a restricted free agent, but I doubt that the Bulls want him back, so he’ll be available to any team that wants to take a chance on him.
Patrick O’Bryant (Restricted or Team Option for $1.6 million)
I’d really like to write this guy off, but since he’s fairly young (turns 23 on June 20th), he could still develop into a decent bench player I suppose. Despite three seasons of NBA experience, O’Bryant still picks up fouls left and right (for his career, he has 116 rebounds compared to 114 fouls), and after being traded twice already, his confidence can’t be very high. The Raptors have a team option for him, but they could opt for this next guy instead.
Nathan Jawai (Restricted or Team Option for $.7 million)
Since Jawai played just 19 minutes for the Raptors as a rookie, let’s examine his D-League stats instead. In 14 games, he averaged 11.1 points, 6.4 boards, 5.1 free throw attempts, 1.6 assists, 1.1 blocks, and 3.4 fouls in 24.1 minutes on 52.6% FG and 77.8% FT shooting. Decent stats, but nothing to write home about. He’s 22, he has a big body, and is fairly athletic, so the potential is still there, but he has a LONG ways to go before being an NBA rotation player.
Johan Petro (Restricted or Qualifying Offer for $2.9 million)
Petro has 4 years of NBA experience now, but his career is headed in the wrong direction. After shooting 51% from the field and averaging 1.4 blocks to 6.0 fouls per 36 minutes as a 20-year old rookie, Johan shot just 41.5% from the field and averaged .9 blocks to 6.9 fouls per 36 minutes as a 23-year old. He’s still young enough to turn his career around, but in my opinion, he rarely looks comfortable on the floor, and I’m guessing that he’ll continue to disappoint.
Robert Swift (Unrestricted)
Swift was the #12 pick in the 2004 draft (ahead of Al Jefferson, Josh Smith, Jameer Nelson, Kevin Martin, JR Smith, Trevor Ariza, etc.), and while injuries have certainly slowed him down, he needs to start producing immediately if he wants to stay in the NBA. In 26 games for the Thunder this past season, he averaged a mediocre 9.0 points, 9.3 rebounds, 1.8 blocks, and 5.2 fouls per 36 minutes. He’s still just 23, but it looks like picking him and Petro (ahead of David Lee, Ronny Turiaf, Monta Ellis, etc.) with back-to-back 1st round picks turned out to be a bad idea. Of course, that was before Sam Presti took over as GM.
Out of the League???
Raef LaFrentz (Unrestricted)
Raef LaFrentz didn’t play at all in ‘08-09, and he played sparingly for Portland in the couple of seasons before that. To see how much he’s fallen off, just look at his outside shot. After making 112-of-286 threes (39.2% 3P) in ‘05-06, Raefer has shot a sorry 2-27 from beyond the arc (7.4% 3P) since then. He isn’t very valuable without his 3-point shot, because LaFrentz is no longer the intimidating shot-blocker that he once was. At the age of 32, his NBA career might be over.
Chris Mihm (Unrestricted)
After missing the entire ‘06-07 season, Mihm played just 383 minutes for the Lakers over the past couple of years, shooting just 47-135 from the field in that timeframe. He was traded to Memphis in February, but had right ankle surgery and never suited up for them. Injuries have derailed his career, and at this point, he’s likely played his last NBA game.
Jake Voskuhl (Unrestricted)
Back in 2000, who knew that Jake Voskuhl (8.5 points and 6.4 rebounds for UConn in ‘99-00) would play in 400 more NBA games than Khalid El-Amin (16.0 points and 5.2 assists for UConn in ‘99-00 after leading them to a National Championship in 1999)? Since big bodies are always in demand, Voskuhl is a 9-year veteran, despite never having blocked more than 29 shots in a season. Someone might want his veteran presence around, but I would rather gamble on a young player with some athleticism.
Calvin Booth (Unrestricted)
Another overpaid 7-footer? Despite career averages of 3.3 points, 2.8 boards, 1.0 blocks, and 1.9 fouls, Booth managed to make over $36 million over the past 8 years. Can we please let him retire now?
Thanks for the Memories
Dikembe Mutombo (Retiring)
After 18 NBA seasons, nearly 1,300 regular and postseason games, 11,729 points scored, 12,359 rebounds, and 3,289 blocked shots, Dikembe Mutombo Mpolondo Mukamba Jean-Jacques Wamutombo’s playing career has finally come to an end. While some will only remember his as the finger-wagging 4-time Defensive Player of the Year, Mt. Mutombo was so much more than that. He was an underrated offensive player in his younger days, an outstanding teammate who could brighten up anyone’s day, and most importantly, a loving, caring soul who has made this world a better place. Both on and off the court, there will never be another Dikembe Mutombo.
If the NBA Cares so much, then why did they disable embedding of this excellent video???
Up next, Team Recommendations…
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I love the Patrick O’Bryant rebounds/fouls stats. I wanted him off the Celtics before he even joined the team. It hurts to think that many people on Celtics forums were hoping we’d make a run at the Birdman, and instead Danny rolled the dice with O’Bryant. Boston would’ve loved Chris Andersen.
As far as Dikembe goes, great guy, great career. I’m sure none of us will ever forget that incredible series where the Nuggets took down the #1 seeded Sonics.
I agree that this is a very uninspiring free agent class of centers for teams that need big man help. With all the attention being focused on the 2010 free agent class – I can’t even find a list of who has enough dinero to make a run at guys like Memo. Any sense for what teams are likely to make a run at a free agent this year and who will be looking to pinch pennies until next year, when Chitown, Detroit, Indy, New Jersey, New York, Houston, Memphis, Minny, OKC, and Sacramento will all have enough money to offer a player the max? Detroit will actually have enough to offer TWO max contracts in 2010!!
I’m pretty sure that Detroit will use one of those (near) max contracts on Boozer this summer.
I’ll be breaking down specific teams over the next few weeks, and while I already have a few in mind, if anyone has a request, just let me know which team you’d like to see.
Random Question: What kind of contract would you guys give Birdman???
I wouldn’t be surprised if Birdman walks away with a 4 year $17-20 mil. contract, similiar to Turiaf’s contract. However, if teams are looking to put all their eggs in the 2010 basket, it will be much less.
As this post clearly demonstrates there are not a lot of options for teams looking to add a big guy via free agency. Centers tend to get overpaid in the NBA so any contract really is in play here. Jerome James got a 5 year $30 million deal for crying out loud.
Bird is 31 so I doubt he can get a full MLE. As a frame of reference, at the same age just last year Posey got 4 years for $25 million and he probably had a bit more of a track record than Birdman. Plus I got the sense that if the Hornets could do it over again they wouldn’t give POZ that many years. I think the Posey outcome after year one, the economy, and his history will work against the Birdman. I say he gets full MLE money at less than max MLE years.
I will say as a Celtics fan I’d be ecstatic if we added this guy, he is an absolute beast. Sadly, it looks like Wyc may be back to his penny pinching ways after he shockingly opened up the checkbook and brought us #17.
Lorenzen Wright is still in the NBA? Thats crazy..the NBA is the home of the overpaid scrub.
I think the Nuggets will offer Anderson 3 years @ $5 per the last year being an option.
The Thunder should throw a deal at him too. Some how that team needs to add a defensive big and Bird would be pretty nice running with Westbrook and Durant.
Gortat is an overrated scrub. He busts his ass 10mpg feasting on the remains of Dwight Howard’s leftovers. Any team gives him big money or long years is ran by idiots.
Sounds like you’re willing to make a wager on this bro…
Per minute, Gortat was the 4th best total rebounder (behind Dwight Howard, Biedrins, and Przybilla), 5th best offensive rebounder (behind Kevin Love, Oden, Noah, and Amundson), and 12th best shot-blocker in the entire league. The argument that he gets extra boards because Rashard Lewis is below average in that department is somewhat valid, but Gortat still pulled down more offensive rebounds than Dwight Howard (per minute), and he still grabbed over 20% of ALL available rebounds when he was on the court (again, 5th best overall).
In 31 playoff games, the dude has made 68.8% of his shots. So much for postseason jitters.
One would expect a guy who shoots such a high FG% to get tons of dunks, but that’s not the case at all. If you look at the dunk stats article, he had just 14 total slams in the regular season, ranking 169th. According to his 82games shooting profile, only 9% of Gortat’s shots were dunks, while 24% of his shots were jumpers. Compare that to Greg Oden, whose split was 30% dunks vs. 10% jumpers.
Physically, Gortat is pretty impressive. He’s a legit 7-footer, and looks to be even heavier than the 240 pounds that he’s listed at. Oh yeah, he also has a 36 inch vertical. Coupled with his 9′2 standing reach, that means he’s one of just a handful of players who can reach 12 feet, 2 inches or higher. That’s Tyrus Thomas, Rudy Gay, JaVale McGee, Josh Smith, Jamario Moon territory. Is he still a scrub?
In the lane agility test that they measure at the draft combine every year, Gortat clocked in at 11.48, which is very solid for a big man, let alone a legit 7-footer (the only true center who has taken the test and been timed at under 11 seconds was Nene). By contrast, here are some notable players who were 12 seconds or slower:
Jeff Green 12.0
LaMarcus Aldridge 12.02
Joe Johnson 12.05
Michael Redd 12.06
Monta Ellis 12.13
Al Horford 12.15
Caron Butler 12.15
David West 12.18
Kevin Durant 12.33
Several guys who are similar in size to Gortat like McGee, O’Bryant, B. Lopez, and Haywood were all clocked at 12.7 seconds or slower.
Gortat’s combination of size and agility is what makes him so effective at setting screens (as well as taking charges). The Magic run tons of pick and rolls with Dwight Howard, but they also run tons with Gortat as well. If you go back and watch Game 1 of the Finals, you’ll see that Gortat set around 20 picks…in just 20 minutes of playing time! Even if that was his only job (it wasn’t, as he also scored 4 points, grabbed 8 boards, blocked 4 blocks, and nabbed 2 steals), setting that many screens without getting into foul trouble (3 fouls) isn’t easy (just ask Kwame Brown).
Am I saying that Gortat is going to be an All-Star? Not at all. But you have to look at the context… Marcin just turned 25 in February. His offensive game is still very raw, so he won’t hit his peak until say, the 2012-13 season.
By that point, the following centers will likely be out of the league: Shaq, Big Z, Rasheed, Camby, B. Miller, Dampier, K. Thomas. Guys like Duncan, J. O’Neal, Birdman, Przybilla, and Foster will be on their last legs.
With all of those solid centers likely to retire over the next few years, there is a serious need to add and develop decent 7-footers. You can hope to find one in the draft, but that’s a crapshoot. After Hasheem Thabeet, this year’s top center prospects are BJ Mullens (high bust potential), Josh Heytvelt (little upside), and ???
Which brings us back to Gortat. Can you name 30 centers who you would rather have in the year 2012? If not, then he’s likely deserving of being a starting center sooner rather than later.
Erick Dampier was a scrub, and he signed a ridiculous 7 year, $73 million contract. Did he deserve that kind of money? HELL NO. Will Gortat get that much? Of course not. But that’s not my point. My point is, even tho Dampier has been an overpaid scrub, he’s STILL been the starting center on a team that has averaged 57.2 wins over the past 5 seasons. So if an overpaid scrub like Dampier can be the starting center on a very successful team, then what does that mean for Gortat?
So let’s determine what qualifies as a “scrub center” and then make a wager.
If my opinion, the “scrub-o-meter” should be somewhere in the Erick Dampier/ Kwame Brown range. Kwame has received extra hate because he was a #1 pick, but let’s forget about that for a second (especially considering Gortat was the #57 pick in the same draft where Martell Webster went #6).
The fact of the matter is that Dampier and Brown still have jobs in the NBA because both are very big bodies who do a serviceable job of setting screens, rebounding, and defending. That’s all most teams ask for from their centers. Any offense that they bring is a plus, altho they are expected to finish around the rim when they’re wide open, which is something that Brown especially has struggled to do.
So if you’re saying that Gortat is an “overrated scrub,” then I’m interpreting that to mean he’ll be no better than either Dampier or Brown. So he’ll set some screens, grab some boards, pick up fouls, and bring little else to the table, right?
I’M saying that Gortat will be a rich man’s version of Damp and Kwame. He’ll be everything that teams HOPED Dampier and Brown would be. In other words, rather than just being “serviceable” at setting screens, grabbing boards, and defending, he will do a very GOOD job at those things. He’ll be much better than Dampier at running the floor, and he’ll be much better than Kawme at finishing around the rim. Mentally, he’ll be a lot stronger than both, so he’ll continue to grow & learn. Emotionally, he’ll be much more involved, so he’ll show some passion and earn more respect from his teammates and fans. Everything that people loathe about Dampier and Brown, they are going to RESPECT about Gortat. And for that, he won’t be a scrub. At least that’s what I predict.
So what are we going to wager?
Next season..
We will combine Gortats points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks.
If we do not reach a total of 20 you owe me $20. IF he goes beyond 20 I owe you $20.
Now I’m scared cuzz the guy average 10 in like 6mpg and Zaza frikkin Pachulia average 13 in 35pmg…
But I’m down and that’s my bet. Take it or leave
Not a bad proposition, but you’re demanding quite a bit out of Gortat, don’t you think?
For starters, he played just 12.6 mpg this season. Even if he signs with a new team and they make him their starter, he’ll likely play just 24-28 minutes per game next season. It’s pretty rare for a player’s minutes to jump from 12 to 30+ in one season. And most centers need 30+ minutes to have a chance at producing 20 or more points + boards + ast + steals + blocks.
Yes, Gortat is efficient, but this past season the only center who averaged less than 28 mpg and still met your magic mark of “20″ was Ilgauskas. Obviously, Big Z is a veteran with a polished offensive game.
Gortat is only going to be 25 next season. By my count, only 10 centers 25 years or younger met your 20 total this season: Dwight Howard, Al Jefferson, Andris Biedrins, Andrew Bynum, Andrew Bogut, Al Horford, Brook Lopez, Marc Gasol, Spencer Hawes, and Kendrick Perkins. If you consider Bargnani, Bosh, and Love to be centers, then that’s make 13. So you’re expecting Gortat to join that elite group overnight? Well, I shouldn’t say you’re “expecting” it since you’re betting otherwise, but for Gortat to NOT be considered a chump in your book, that’s the group he has to join???
Meanwhile, established big men like Tyson Chandler, Varejao, Noah, Oden, Dalembert, Krstic, Turiaf, Collison, Birdman, Przybilla, Pachulia, and Foster all failed to average 20 pts + reb + ast + stl + blk this season. Not surprisingly, all of them played less than 26 mpg, making it extremely tough for them to reach your goal. Would you call all of those guys chumps?
So again, let’s look at Dampier and Kwame. Using your formula, Damp totaled 15.2 in 23.0 minutes, while Kwame totaled 10.6 in 17.2 minutes. Pro-rate those numbers over 26 minutes and you have 17.2 for Dampier and 16.0 for Brown.
So if we’re talking a fair wager, “17.5″ sounds more realistic. If he reaches that level, it means Gortat would be out-producing the “proven chumps” if you will, and assuming he plays 24-27 minutes, he would be joining the mid-level group of guys that I pointed out. I mean, if a 25-year old Gortat w/ less than 100 games under his belt can produce like Dalembert, Turiaf, and Collison, don’t you think the team that signs him will be happy?
And if he somehow gets 30+ minutes next season, then yeah, we can bump the magic number up to 20.
And the $20 HAS to go towards a jersey of the winner’s choice that the loser must wear for at least a full day.
17.5? In 12mpg he put up 10 total. Double his minutes he should double his production. He might just drop 9/9. I’m giving you a deal at 20 total. I know you’re a good business man and negotiating is part of business but I can’t budge on this. You talked this guy up and have him as the 4th top FA Center in the NBA. Honestly I’m scared and feel I’m risking my good sense making this bet. 17.5 total?! Maan I’d be giving it away.
where is rasheed wallace in your free agent articles?
thanks in advance
Oops. Good catch, I’m not sure how that happened. I’ve added him now.
Don’t understand why Patrick O’Bryant is always being put down? Teh guy has not been playing much what did you expect? Part of player’s development is actual game experience.
Oden is supposed to be a once in a generation center and he has been given all the time in the world to play but still has not been consistent (is mostly in foul trouble). He is not being put down at all?
Prime examples of players who developed quite well this season after so so performances have been Lamacus Aldrige and Andrea Bargnani. The common denominator between these guys has been actual significant game experience.
Common guys, being basketball fans we all have played the game at some level…we should all know what inactivity does to a player (physically & mentally). Give the guy a break!!!!
I hear what you’re saying about O’Bryant. He is young and athletic, he was a lottery pick and he could put it all together if it turns out he’s just a late bloomer. It happens sometimes. I don’t see it happening for this guy, though. I think he is just an athlete with an NBA body and not a basketball player. This is a guy who was getting benched in college because he couldn’t find a way to help his team win. Pathetic for a guy with his height/weight/wingspan.
Then there was of course the comments by Don Nelson, who basically said that he sent him to the DLeague and expected him to dominate, yet he returned the exact same player that got demoted. O’Bryant just doesn’t seem to be working on his game at all and he’s been in the league for a while now. What is worrisome is that his initial scouting reports coming into league called into question his desire, work ethic, and his skill set and so far he has done nothing to quiet his detractors. He was awful for the Celtics. As of today actually he is 23 years old and he’s a 5ppg 2rpg player who averages as many fouls as rebounds. He is the definition of a “project” and at this point he’s an old project, too. He has no idea how to play basketball and just relies on his athleticism. These are the type of players I hate having on my favorite team and much like Gerald Green, I would be shocked at this point if O’Bryant becomes a productive NBA player.
As a Celtics fan, I would’ve preferring we set up a 7′0″ blocking dummy in the paint rather than waste valuable coaching resources trying to turn this guy into a basketball player.
I would’ve preferring we set up a 7′0″ blocking dummy in the paint rather than waste valuable coaching resources trying to turn this guy into a basketball player.
…and YO
“He’ll be much better than Dampier at running the floor, and he’ll be much better than Kawme at finishing around the rim.”
Spin around 5 times and slap yourself in the face. You just described Shawn Bradley.
For those wondering where my Team Recommendations are, sorry, but I’m working on a few things at the moment and don’t have the time right now. I wanted to put them out BEFORE the draft, but that seems unlikely now. I’ll try to make up for it.
I think I’ll cry tears of joy if the Celtics get ‘Sheeeeed. Little known fact: I have gone to the Fleetcenter/Garden every year for the past 8 years when ‘Sheed was in town to see him play. I even got good tickets way in advance to the Blazers game the year he got traded to Atlanta/Detroit and instead of catching ‘Sheed from up close I got to take in Dan Dickau and Wesley Person. That was BS, but I am absolutely ecstatic about the possibility of combining Eddie House’s handshakes with the Rasheed dancing-in-the-circle routine. If Boston can pull Wallace, I think trading for Posy should be made a priority so we can also throw his pregame man-hugs back into the mix!!
Eddie, by the way, has exercised his player option and will be back with the Celtics and I am happy about this I love that guy.
Celts also supposedly eyesing Grant Hill. I’m counting on Danny and Wyc to not cheap out like last season and to keep this team competitive with LAL/ORL/CLE/SAS.
As soon as I heard the ‘Sheed rumor I paid $40 to get on the Celtics season ticket waitlist.. Make it happen Ainge!!
I love Gortat as a sleeper. He could be a monster in the right situation. His athleticism is pretty underrated I think because he is white, but there is a clip of him taking off from the free throw line and dunking to win a bet. They don’t call him the white dwight for nothing.
looks like Houston’s gonna make Gortat a big money big minute player.
..and E will take care of our bet once the dust clears on his status.
Sheeeeeeeeeeeed! It’s on Laker fans!! Much like in 2007 when Ainge had made the trade for Ray Allen and before he made the other move for KG, the Celtics can not be finished just yet. As of now there is no one who can handle the ball behind Rondo and without a vetaran backup who can at least get in and be serviceable I worry that Rondo might go into Orlando Magic playoff-series “me-first” mode again. All I’m asking for is Tyronn Lue quality and seeing as he’s KG’s bud I think that is a likely signing. At least the remote possibility that Rondo can get sat on the bench if he plays selfishly has to exist to keep him in line.
Also, Tony Allen is currently Boston’s primary SG/SF off the bench.. And he is a reh-tard. GHill looks likely at this point, and I like it because he is a SG/SF, can handle the ball, and is still a solid NBA player. I still wish we had Posey, though, since the Celtics only have one guy (Pierce) who can match up with LeBron and that will prove to be problematic. As it is, if Boston walks away with ‘Sheed, Hill, and veteran point guard du jour I’d call it a successful haul.
Also I am a bit disappointed in Gortat’s decision to sign with Dallas. He could’ve become an all-star in Houston and now he’ll just be a servicable big man on a star-studded team. It’s not a terrible fit since he can step right in and start, but Houston would’ve been better.
So much for Gortat busting out. Orlando matched Dallas’ offer, meaning he’ll be in a Magic uniform again.
So either Orlando wants to pay him $7 million per year to play 12 minutes per game, or they’re trying to trade him to get some value in return…
So he can be traded as of Dec 15. I guess it’s a good move. They’ll have 6 weeks to evaluate the team and either move him for the proper piece or if things are working let it roll.
:puts Lisa Leslie jersey in drawer:
The Etan Thomas to OKC trade went totally under the radar, but I love that trade for the Thunder, especially since they got a couple of draft picks thrown in.
We’re still waiting on:
Hollins (I haven’t read a single thing about him)
Skinner (he should get a signing bonus just for the goatee)
Foyle (don’t NBA teams care about political activism anymore?)
Smart move by Minnesota to sign Hollins to an offer sheet. I think he can play well next to either Al-Jeff OR Love. We’ll see if Dallas matches…