Breaking Down the 2009 Free Agent Class: Point Guards

Where do Nate, Kidd, and Sessions rank among this year’s group of free agent PGs?

Over the next month, most hoops fans are going to be focused on crowning a new NBA champion and preparing for the upcoming draft. However, free agency is always an important element of professional sports, so that’s what I’m going to analyze.

Unfortunately, finding an accurate and comprehensive list of NBA free agents is somewhat difficult. ESPN compiled this list, but we don’t get to see what salaries are attached to the various player and team options. Hoopshype has always been an excellent resource for finding player salaries, but you have to browse team by team, and some of their data doesn’t always match up with other sources. There are plenty of other lists on the internet featuring “Top Free Agents,” but the ones I’ve seen tend to do a poor job of displaying the information that fans like myself want to know.

So my goal over the next couple of weeks is to make some sense out of the 2009 NBA Free Agent class (I’ll get to 2010 eventually). In an effort to break this down in a useful manner, I am sorting by position first rather than by team. After that, I will organize players into a variety of categories, going beyond just “Restricted” and “Unrestricted.” For example, if you’re a Celtics fan and you want to know who the best cheap, experienced PG options are to back up Rondo (because you loathe Marbury), then hopefully you can easily find that here. I’ve done my best to double-check these figures, but if you see something that’s incorrect, please let me know. For the die-hard fantasy players, I’ve added “Fantasy Impact” tidbits where I see fit, but the stats are taking a backseat here. Once we have a clear picture of which players are staying and going, and who the top options are at each position, I will take on the General Manager role and make suggestions for several teams. Enjoy…

Likely to Stay: Possible Extension

Raymond Felton (Restricted or Qualifying Offer for $5.5 million)

Rick Bonnell does an excellent job of covering the Bobcats, so I believe it when he says, “I bet Felton is this team’s starting point guard on opening night.” In this recent article, Bonnell points out that Raymond wants to stay in Charlotte (remember that he grew up in Souh Carolina and went to college at North Carolina), Larry Brown is confident that he’ll return, and that this summer is not a good time to test the free agent market. Due to our poor economy (and the stellar 2010 crop of free agents), teams are going to be especially frugal this summer. Fantasy Impact: D.J. Augustin’s minutes will be limited once again.

Likely to Stay: Guaranteed Contracts

Mike James (Player Option for $6.5 million)

James actually averaged 30 mpg in 50 starts for the Wizards this past season, but his playing time will be drastically reduced if Arenas comes back healthy and/or Washington drafts a young point guard. Still, there’s no way James will pass up $6.5 millionion in guaranteed money.

Travis Diener (Player Option for $1.7 million)

Diener has yet to decide if he’ll exercise his player option for ‘09-10, but common sense says that he’ll stay in Indiana. If Jarrett Jack leaves (see below), Diener could play a larger role next season, and there’s no guarantee that Travis could make more money elsewhere.

Chris Quinn (Player Option for $1.1 million)

Quinn played sparingly in the playoffs, but he’s still just 25 years old, and he could earn more minutes if his defense improves. $1.1 millionion isn’t a lot by NBA standards, but Quinn will likely return to Miami for a 4th season with Dwyane Wade, Pat Riley, and company.

Bobby Brown (Player Option for $.7 million)

Brown could decline his player option and try to earn more money elsewhere, but since he’s yet to establish himself in the league, he’ll likely stick with the T-Wolves. After all, he’s just a Sebastian Telfair injury away from earning a lot more minutes. Fantasy Impact: he could be a sleeper in ultra-deep leagues.

Top 10 Point Guards Available

1. Jason Kidd (Unrestricted)

One could argue that Nash is the best (potential) point guard available, but Kidd will be the most coveted PG for several reasons. For starters, he’s a superior defensive player, and unlike Nash, he’s big enough to defend shooting guards. It also seems like Jason is willing to accept less money in order to play for a championship contender. Dallas wants him back, but Kidd will have plenty of suitors.

2. Steve Nash (Team Option for $13.1 million, $8 million guaranteed)

Phoenix has a team option to bring back Nash, but if they decline it, they’ll still owe him $8 millionion. So that move seems unlikely, but he could still be available via trade. Of course, if Mike D’Antoni was still in Phoenix, this wouldn’t even be an issue. But the team has undergone several changes over the past year, and it no longer seems certain that Nash will retire in a Suns uniform. Steve Kerr wants to give him a contract extension, but only if the price is right. Nash wants to stay in Phoenix, but only if management surrounds him better talent. If the two sides don’t see eye-to-eye soon, there could be a blockbuster trade.

3. Ramon Sessions (Restricted)

He has just 96 NBA games under his belt, but Ramon Sessions has already shown plenty of talent and potential. However, Milwaukee has a serious dilemma, because both Sessions AND Charlie Villanueva are restricted free agents, and it seems nearly impossible that the team will be able to retain both players. If the Bucks select a point guard in the upcoming draft, then Sessions will surely be in a new uniform next season. Fantasy Impact: depends where Sessions ends up.

4. Andre Miller (Unrestricted)

The 10-year NBA veteran is coming off a playoff series in which he averaged 21.2 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 5.3 assists against an Orlando team that looks poised to reach the NBA Finals, but he skipped Philly’s season-ending team meeting. As an unrestricted free agent he’ll have several options, but he’ll likely have to take a pay cut from the $10 millionion that he made last season.

5. Nate Robinson (Restricted or Qualifying Offer for $2.9 million)

The Knicks will surely sign David Lee to a long-term extension this summer, and since they want to save the rest of their money for 2010, this means the ultra-popular Nate Robinson has probably played his last game for New York. Knicks brass could be working on an under the table sign-and-trade agreement involving Nate right now, but he can’t be moved until July 9th at the earliest. Either way, the 5′9 sparkplug will be coveted for both his flashy scoring abilities AND his ability to put butts in the seats. Fantasy Impact: his stats could plummet if he doesn’t land in the right situation.

6. Mike Bibby (Unrestricted)

Bibby has helped Atlanta make the playoffs two years in a row, but there’s no guarantee that he’ll be back in a Hawks uniform. Acie Law has been a major bust, but a quality PG prospect (Eric Maynor, Jeff Teague, Ty Lawson, etc.) might fall to Atlanta at pick #19 in the upcoming draft. If that happens, they might let Bibby go, unless he’s willing to return for a lot less money.

7. Jarrett Jack (Restricted or Qualifying Offer for $2.9 million)

Considering that Marquis Daniels (Team option for $7.4 millionion) is likely on his way out and that Mike Dunleavy Jr.’s health is a major concern, the Pacers would be wise to retain the 25-year old Jack. However, Jack has clashed with point guard T.J. Ford (still under contract), and after his solid season, another team might be willing to offer Jarrett a nice new contract.

8. Shannon Brown (Restricted)

Shannon Brown has likely earned himself a few extra millionion dollars this postseason. He’s always been a freak athlete, but recently he’s shown that he can also be a solid defender, reliable ball-handler, and a decent outside shooter. Surely the Lakers want to keep him, but retaining Trevor Ariza is a higher priority (not to mention Lamar Odom, who is likely gone). Since Brown is still just 23, several teams will be interested this summer.

9. C.J. Watson (Restricted)

Watson isn’t a pure point guard, but he can score in a myriad of ways and does a solid job of limiting his weaknesses. He also showed some toughness by playing with a giant brace on his injured shooting elbow for much of the season. Don Nelson would LOVE to keep him over Jamal Crawford (listed with the shooting guards), but common sense says that’s not going to happen. The Warriors already have Belinelli and Morrow, and they need a pure PG in case Monta struggles.

10. Jamaal Tinsley (2 years, $14.7 million left)

Tinsley’s current contract is scheduled to pay him $14.7 millionion more thru the 2010-11 season, so he’s clearly not a free agent. However, he has a grievance hearing set for July 27th, and an arbitrator could force the Pacers to buy him out. If it happens, several teams could be interested in the ballhandling wizard. Fantasy Impact: pay attention on July 27.

Savvy Veterans: Solid and Cheap

Anthony Carter (Unrestricted)

Carter isn’t very flashy, but the 10-year NBA vet gets the job done. He’s been an excellent backup to Chauncey Billups this season, but if Denver advances to the NBA Finals, he might ask for slightly more than the veteran minimum.

Bobby Jackson (Unrestricted)

At 36 years old, Jackson isn’t as quick or efficient as he used to be, but he’s still a capable backup. He could sign with a contender over the summer, but since B-Jax is a fan favorite in Sacramento, he could also return to the Kings (as a mentor for Ricky Rubio?).

Brevin Knight (Unrestricted)

Knight averaged just 2.4 points this past season, but he’s still a pesky defender and a veteran leader. He fits the Jerry Sloan mold perfectly, but the Jazz could be looking for an upgrade in the offseason. Still, there will be room for him somewhere.

Kevin Ollie (Unrestricted)

In his 12 year NBA career, Ollie has played for a whopping 11 teams (including 2 stints with Philly), and at 36 years old, he only has a little bit left in the tank. Rick Bonnell suggests that Charlotte should sign him, and he’s played for Larry Brown before.

Jacque Vaughn (Unrestricted)

Vaughn has never averaged more than 6.6 points in a season, but he has 12 years of NBA experience and plenty of wisdom to share with younger players. After 3 years in San Antonio, will he move on to another contender?

Lindsey Hunter (Unrestricted)

At 38 years young, Hunter was the 2nd oldest player in the league this past season (Mt. Mutombo). Still, whenever he steps onto the court, he’s an ultra-quick defender and a threat from outside. He’s a great mentor for Derrick Rose, so the Bulls might choose to keep him for one more season.

Tyronn Lue (Unrestricted)

Lue’s best days are clearly behind him, but he just turned 32 and has the experience and professional demeanor to stick around for another year or two.

Borderline Options: Risky

Stephon Marbury (Unrestricted)

In my opinion, the aging Lindsey Hunter would have done a much better job for Boston than Marbury. Despite being younger and more talented than the guys in the previous group, Marbury is a much less reliable option. His head is in the clouds, and he carries way too much baggage for being a 32-year old former All-Star. At this point, a move to Europe might serve him (and NBA fans) best.

Jason Hart (Unrestricted)

After shooting just 29.8% in 28 games for the Clippers, Hart joined the Nuggets and has actually played a few minutes in the postseason. However, he’s an emergency option at best, and it’s been a long time since he played meaningful minutes.

Ronnie Price (Unrestricted)

When Deron Williams went down at the beginning of the season, Price didn’t exactly seize the opportunity. He turns 26 in June and is still very athletic, but he’s yet to prove that he’s a reliable backup in the NBA. He wants to return to Utah, but they might go in another direction.

Sean Singletary (Restricted or Team Option for $.7 million)

Singletary didn’t play much as a rookie, and when he did, he didn’t perform very well. The Bobcats will likely choose a veteran to replace him, but since he’s only 23, another team might give him a second chance.

Gabe Pruitt (Restricted or Team Option for $.7 million)

Pruitt shot just 30.7% this past season, and he probably hasn’t lived up to Boston’s expectations. They could gamble on him for one more season, but I suggest they nab a savvy veteran instead.

Out of the League???

Anthony Roberson (Restricted or Team Option for $.9 million)

Roberson simply hasn’t been able to latch on with a team, playing for the Grizzlies, Warriors, Knicks, and Bulls in his brief 65 game career. The guy can score, but he’s basically an extremely undersized shooting guard (a poor man’s Luther Head?). He could probably flourish overseas.

Mike Wilks (Unrestricted)

Wilks didn’t play in a single NBA game in ‘08-09, but he still earned almost a cool millionion from the Memphis Grizzlies. At the age of 30, it looks like his NBA career is over.

Royal Ivey (Unrestricted)

Ivey did not have a strong ‘08-09 season, shooting just 33.2% from the field and playing below average defense. He’s started 109 games in his NBA career and he’s still just 27, but with many point guard prospects in this year’s draft, Royal might not get another guaranteed NBA contract.

Damon Jones (Unrestricted)

Jones played just 108 TOTAL minutes this past season, so it looks like his NBA career is coming to an end. In true Damon Jones fashion, he shot 11-for-28 on threes, but a measly 0-for-6 on twos. For his career, he’s made 941 treys on 39% 3P shooting. Not bad, but consider that he’s shot over 42% from beyond the arc just once and over 80% from the line just once in his 11 year career. By contrast, Steve Nash has shot over 42% 3P and over 80% FT in EACH of the past 5 seasons. Who is the “best shooter in the world?” It’s definitely not Damon Jones.

Up next, the shooting guards…

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