Breaking Down the 2009 Free Agent Class: Power Forwards

Where will Boozer and Odom be playing next year?

Over the next couple of weeks, I will be trying to make some sense out of the 2009 NBA Free Agent class. There are plenty of other lists on the internet featuring “Top Free Agents,” but the ones I’ve seen tend to do a poor job of organizing the information that fans like myself want to know. In an effort to break this down in a useful manner, I am going to sort by position first rather than by team.

I’ve done my best to double-check these figures, but if you see something that’s incorrect, please let me know. For the die-hard fantasy players, I’ve added “Fantasy Impact” tidbits where I see fit, but the stats are taking a backseat here. Once we have a clear picture of which players are staying, which players are available, and who the top options are at each position, I will take on the General Manager role and make suggestions for several teams. Enjoy…

Likely to Stay: Guaranteed Contracts

Al Harrington (Player Option for $10.0 million)

Harrington is good, but he’s not worth $10 million a year, so he’ll surely exercise his player option for next season. After averaging 20.7 points and 2.4 treys for the Knicks, he’s gotta love his current situation. Fantasy Impact: unless New York drafts a power forward, Al will be a great fantasy player once again.

Brian Cook (Player Option for $3.5 million)

Brian Cook has 6 years of NBA experience, but it’s been a long time since he played meaningful minutes. I see “veterans minimum” in his future, so he better enjoy his $3.5 million salary while it lasts.

Malik Allen (Player Option for $1.3 million)

You’d expect him to be a solid rebounder, but Allen averaged just 6.4 rebounds compared to 5.5 fouls per 36 minutes this past season. He turns 31 in June, so this could be his last guaranteed contract. He’ll stay in Milwaukee to earn $1.3 million, and his playing time could increase if Villanueva leaves. Fantasy Impact: even without CV, his stat potential is extremely limited.

Likely to Stay: Good Value or Potential

Ian Mahinmi (Restricted or Team Option for $1.1 million)

For several years now, Mahinmi has been considered a young prospect in the Spurs organization. He put up stellar numbers in the D-League in ‘07-08, but his ‘08-09 season was derailed by an ankle injury. They’ve waited this long for him, so they may as well exercise their team option to keep him around for one more year. The potential is still there, but he needs to start producing.

Louis Amundson (Restricted or Team Option for $.9 million)

Amundson is another guy who put up excellent numbers in the D-League, and the Suns finally gave him a chance to play decent minutes this past season. After averaging 9.3 boards and 2.2 blocks per 36 minutes while shooting 54% from the field, the Suns will surely keep him around for one more year. Louis seems like a good guy to have around, and at less than $1 million, he’s one of the cheapest reliable backups around.

Top 10 Power Forwards Available

1. Carlos Boozer (Unrestricted or Player Option for $12.7 million)

Despite having nearly $13 million on the table, Boozer is planning to become an unrestricted free agent this summer. Supposedly, he’s already told friends that he’s going to sign with either Detroit or New Jersey. As a 27-year old in his prime, he’s hoping to get a very lucrative long-term deal. Fantasy Impact: he’ll get as many shots and rebounds as he can handle on the Pistons, but with Brook Lopez around in New Jersey, it might be a different story.

2. David Lee (Restricted or Qualifying Offer for $2.7 million)

I’m 98% sure that the Knicks are going to retain D. Lee, but if another team signs him to an insane contract, who knows if New York will match? Considering that he’s coming off an incredible season, he just turned 26, and is extremely fun to watch, the guy is due for a HUGE raise. This is still way premature, but it’s hard not to think about Lee and LeBron running the floor together in 2010.

3. Paul Millsap (Restricted)

While I’m 98% sure about Lee, I’m 99% sure that Millsap will stay in Utah. With Boozer leaving, that clears some cap space for the Jazz, and Utah management has already said that they’ll be willing to pay the luxury tax to retain his services. He embodies what Jerry Sloan’s Jazz are all about, and they’re going to need his presence in the paint with Boozer gone. Fantasy Impact: anyone who can drop 19 straight double-doubles is a badass, and Millsap will get more scoring opportunities next season. My only concern is that the heavy workload may start to take a toll as the season wears on.

4. Lamar Odom (Unrestricted)

There’s a good chance that both Lee and Millsap will stay with their current teams, but the opposite is true for Odom. The Lakers don’t have much salary cap room to bring him back, so Lamar will likely be playing for someone else next season. One team with significant cap space is the Oklahoma City Thunder, and I think he’d be a great fit there. Since Russell Westbrook isn’t the best ball-handler, Odom can help out a lot in that regard. He can also play alongside Durant and Green, or substitute for either one. Most importantly, he would become their veteran leader with championship experience. Fantasy Impact: assuming he leaves Los Angeles, Odom’s value is going up next year.

5. Charlie Villanueva (Restricted or Qualifying Offer for $4.6 million)

Sometime before the draft, Milwaukee will decide whether they want to keep Ramon Sessions, Charlie Villanueva, or neither player. Since it’s a PG-heavy draft, common sense would be for them to keep Villanueva and draft a point guard. However, they could also draft DeJuan Blair and let Charlie go. If that’s the case, several teams will be interested in the versatile forward. He set career-highs in several categories this past season, and at the age of 24, his best basketball is still ahead of him.

6. Drew Gooden (Unrestricted)

It’s easy to forget about Gooden because he ended the season playing limited minutes for the Spurs. However, he’s still just 27, and he’s still an excellent rebounder and capable offensive player. He doesn’t add much excitement or upside, but he should get the job done for a fairly low salary. As an unrestricted FA, Gooden will get to choose who he wants to play for next. Fantasy Impact: he had a down year in ‘08-09, but don’t forget about him on draft day.

7. Brandon Bass (Unrestricted)

Some people might rank Big Baby ahead of him, but in my book, Brandon Bass is the superior LSU power forward. Both players can knock down open shots, but Bass is the better defender, and in my opinion, a more efficient player. I’m sure that Dallas appreciates what he brings to the table, but if they re-sign Kidd, they probably won’t be able to afford Bass this summer. For the teams that miss out on Odom and Villanueva, they’d be wise to steer their attention over to the 24-year old who attacks the rim with ferocity.

8. Anderson Varejao (Unrestricted or Player Option for $6.2 million)

$5-6 million per year seems about right for Varejao, but it sounds like he’s going to decline his player option in hopes of more money. I’m not sure how this will play out, as Cleveland surely wants him back, but only for the right price. Sideshow V is a solid player, but his upside is limited, and I would rather have Bass or McDyess.

9. Antonio McDyess (Unrestricted)

The 13-year NBA veteran is still one of the most coveted free agent power forwards, which shows how effective he is and how his game evolved after he blew out his knee. Most likely he’ll only play for a contender at this point, and I’m sure he’ll have several suitors since he seems like such a great guy to have in the locker room.

10. Glen Davis (Restricted)

Sure, he looked good in the playoffs, but I’m still not sold on Big Baby Davis. He’s a liability on defense due to his limited length, penchant for fouling, and below average rebounding skills, and his emotional outbursts are a little too much for me. That being said, the Celtics will likely retain him, since Leon Powe is a major risk (see below) and Garnett’s health is still a question mark. Fantasy Impact: if KG isn’t the same next season, Davis could play more minutes and put up decent stats for owners in deep leagues.

26 and Under: Decent Talents

Hakim Warrick (Restricted or Qualifying Offer for $3.0 million)

Warrick has improved each season, but he’s yet to prove that he’s a reliable NBA starter. He’s versatile offensively, but a poor rebounder and undersized for the 4 spot. I have a tough time gauging how much money he’s worth, and I’m sure there are some general managers who feel the same way.

Steve Novak (Restricted)

Novak finally got a chance to play big minutes, and he made the most of it, making 1.7 treys per game on 41.6% 3P shooting. There’s always a market for 6′10 guys who can spread the floor, and Novak will certainly have some suitors over the summer. If the Clippers draft Blake Griffin and aren’t able to move Zach Randolph, will they pay Novak to sit on the bench? Fantasy Impact: if he stays in Los Angeles, his value will be limited.

Chris Wilcox (Unrestricted)

He’s been an underachiever for most of his 7 year career, but he’s still just 26, and part of me still believes in Chris Wilcox. He says that he enjoyed playing for Mike D’Antoni and would like to return to New York, but I’m not sure if the Knicks want him back.

Shelden Williams (Unrestricted or Team Option for $4.3 million)

Atlanta picking him 5th overall in the ‘06 draft is still laughable, and he’s definitely not an NBA starter, but Shelden Williams has proven to be a serviceable body off the bench. Both Minnesota and Sacramento were better defensive teams when he was on the floor, he’s a solid offensive rebounder, and he has plenty of weight to throw around. Is he worth $4.3 million? No, but there are worse backup big men out there.

Channing Frye (Restricted or Qualifying Offer for $4.3 million)

Remember when Channing Frye averaged 12.8 points and 5.8 boards as a rookie and was considered “untouchable”? Since then, things have gone drastically downhill, and I’m not even sure if I’d want him as my 12th man. Having just turned 26, he still might bounce back, but few teams (if any) will be offering him a long-term contract.

Ike Diogu (Restricted or Qualifying Offer for $3.9 million)

It’s tough to hate on Diogu, because ever since his rookie year, he hasn’t gotten much of an opportunity to play. This past season, Ike had only 2 games where he played 20+ minutes, and in those 2 games, he scored 60 points on 24-37 FG shooting, to go along with 24 rebounds. Will the Kings keep him to see what he’s really capable of? Fantasy Impact: file Ike in the “could put up numbers if he ever got a chance” group.

Ersan Ilyasova (Restricted)

Remember this guy? The Bucks still own the rights to their 2nd round pick in the ‘05 draft, and after playing in 66 games for Milwaukee in ‘06-07, Ilyasova has played fairly well in Spain recently. In 32 games in the ACB league this past season, Ersan averaged 10.7 points, 7.6 rebounds, 1.2 steals, and 1.4 threes in just 23 minutes per game while shooting 50.4% from the field and a blistering 47.8% from beyond the arc. He’s pretty skinny, but has good length, can shoot the lights out, and is a surprisingly solid rebounder. If Villanueva leaves town, the Bucks (and other teams) should definitely consider bringing him back to the NBA. Fantasy Impact: keep him on your radar, especially if you’re in a deep keeper league.

Savvy Veterans: Solid and Cheap

James Singleton (Unrestricted)

It’s hard to call a guy with only 3 years of NBA experience a veteran, but Singleton turns 28 in July and he really established himself this past season. If the Mavs keep Brandon Bass, they may have to let Singleton go, and there are plenty of teams who could use his energy off the bench.

Joe Smith (Unrestricted)

Having played for 10 different teams in his 14 year career, Joe Smith has been around the block. His performance hasn’t dropped off as much as you’d expect, so he could be back for another year or two. I wouldn’t give him more than the veterans minimum, but he’s a solid guy to have in the locker room.

Juwan Howard (Unrestricted)

At 36 years old, Howard proved that he’s still capable of playing decent backup minutes for Charlotte. He could very well retire over the summer, but if not, he’s another solid veteran presence.

Donyell Marshall (Unrestricted)

Did you know? Donyell Marshall is one of just 6 players to record over 800 threes and 800 blocks (the others are Dirk Nowitzki, Scottie Pippen, Cliff Robinson, Rasheed Wallace, and Sam Perkins). The 15 year NBA veteran can still shoot the three ball, and he even played 50 minutes for the 76ers in their 1st round playoff matchup with Orlando. If I were a GM I would much rather have Steve Novak, but someone might bring Marshall back for another go.

Borderline Options: Risky or Unproven

Leon Powe (Restricted)

After 3 major knee surgeries, Powe is now a serious medical risk. It’s unfortunate, because he’s proven to be a solid backup when healthy. The Celtics have the right to match any offer made to him, but if they manage to keep Big Baby, they’ll probably let Powe walk.

Sean May (Restricted or Qualifying Offer for $3.7 million)

Sean May hasn’t been the same player since having microfracture surgery, and since he carries so much weight on his frame, it’s unlikely that he’ll ever recover 100%. I doubt anyone is going to make him an offer, so he’d be wise to accept Charlotte’s qualifying offer.

Stromile Swift (Unrestricted)

The perennial disappointment turns 30 in November, and at this point, his downside probably outweighs his upside. The Stro Show should consider himself lucky if he gets another NBA contract.

Melvin Ely (Unrestricted)

When Sean Marks plays twice as much as you, you average just 6.2 rebounds per 36 minutes, and you shoot under 40% from the field, things aren’t looking good for your career. Melvin Ely is coming off his worst season ever, and at the age of 31, he still hasn’t proven to be a reliable backup in the NBA. Will he still be in the league next year?

Cedric Simmons (Unrestricted or Team Option for $2.7 million)

Simmons has already played for 4 different teams in his brief NBA career, so he’s clearly not showing teams what they’re hoping to see. It’s unlikely that the Kings will exercise their team option, so Simmons will be free to sign with anyone.

Josh McRoberts (Restricted)

McRoberts averaged just 10.3 points per 36 minutes this past season, but he was playing in his home state of Indiana and he’s still just 22. Of all of the guys in this group, he probably has the most upside, and considering their penchant for white Americans, the Pacers will likely retain him.

Shavlik Randolph (Unrestricted)

Technically, Randolph has 4 years of NBA experience under his belt, but over the last 2, he’s totaled just 64 minutes. In those limited minutes, he’s scored 26 points, pulled down 29 boards (19 offensive), blocked 4 shots, and picked up 9 fouls, so he’s definitely an active body. Quite frankly, I would sign Shavlik over guys like May and Swift.

Rob Kurz (Restricted)

Kurz played fairly well as a rookie, making 39.5% of his threes and doing enough of the little things to impress Don Nelson. Depending on their other offseason moves, the Warriors could bring him back.

Othello Hunter (Restricted)

Hunter played a total of just 92 minutes as rookie, recording 24 boards, 5 blocks, and 11 fouls. He’ll probably get another chance to prove himself, but he’s got a long ways to go.

Out of the League???

Maceo Baston (Unrestricted)

Baston is an accomplished player overseas, but he’s played 4 seasons in the NBA without finding his niche. At the age of 34, it looks like he never will. The Pacers could use some help at power forward, but after averaging just 8.6 rebounds compared to 6.5 fouls per 36 minutes last season, they should look elsewhere for help.

Michael Ruffin (Unrestricted)

He’s still just 32, but Ruffin played a TOTAL of just 35 minutes this past season for Portland. He’s still a rugged rebounder, but his skills are declining and he has virtually no upside to speak of. Most likely, he’ll only be considered if someone gets hurt during the regular season.

Malik Rose (Unrestricted)

Despite career averages of just 6.2 points and 4.1 rebounds, Malik Rose has made a whopping $42.5 million over the past 10 seasons. He’s shot UNDER 40% from the field 4 seasons in a row, and at the age of 34, he brings very little to the table. I’ll be shocked if he’s back for a 14th season.

Up next, the centers…

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