Breaking Down the 2009 Free Agent Class: Shooting Guards

Chances are, neither Iverson nor Gordon are going to get the type of money that they’re hoping for this summer.

Over the next couple of weeks, I will be trying to make some sense out of the 2009 NBA Free Agent class. There are plenty of other lists on the internet featuring “Top Free Agents,” but the ones I’ve seen tend to do a poor job of organizing the information that fans like myself want to know. In an effort to break this down in a useful manner, I am going to sort by position first rather than by team. After that, I will organize players into a variety of categories. I mean, it’s easy for ESPN to separate “Restricted” and “Unrestricted” free agents, but what about separating players “Likely to Stay” with their current teams and players “Available” on the market? I’ve done my best to double-check these figures, but if you see something that’s incorrect, please let me know. For the die-hard fantasy players, I’ve added “Fantasy Impact” tidbits where I see fit, but the stats are taking a backseat here. Once we have a clear picture of which players are staying, which players are available, and who the top options are at each position, I will take on the General Manager role and make suggestions for several teams. Enjoy.

Likely to Stay: Just Because

Kobe Bryant (Early Termination or $23.0 million)

When it comes to Kobe, ANYTHING is possible, but after playing over 41,000 minutes (regular season + playoffs) for the Lakers and basically growing up in front of our eyes, it only seems right for him to retire in purple and gold. So assuming he stays in Los Angeles, the main questions are: How many more championships will he win? How many more All-NBA seasons does he have left in the tank? Who will his teammates be over the next few years? All three questions are related, and what happens this summer could have a major impact on that.

According to ESPN and Hoopshype, Kobe has an Early Termination Option after this season. If he does NOT exercise it, he’ll make $23.03 million in ‘09-10 and then $24.81 million in ‘10-11. So if he doesn’t terminate his contract early, the Lakers will pay him exactly $47,840,625 over the next two seasons. That’s a lot of money, but he probably deserves every penny. However, even WITHOUT signing Odom, Ariza, and Shannon Brown, that would put the Lakers over next season’s expected luxury tax threshold. Not good for Laker fans, or for Kobe Bryant’s legacy.

So… if Kobe is willing to take a pay cut, then he should exercise his early termination option and structure a new deal (his very last one?) that pays him less money but is more cap-friendly to his organization. If he takes a BIG pay cut, it would allow the Lakers to keep Ariza while still giving them a bit of cap flexibility in the near future. Mitch Kupchak would then be able to continue surrounding him with superior talent, and thus, the odds of Kobe winning more championships and continuing to play at an All-NBA level would improve greatly. Of course, what happens over the next few weeks will play a part in all of this, so stay tuned…

Likely to Stay: Guaranteed Contracts

Jamal Crawford (Early Termination or $9.4 million)

As a Warriors fan, I would love it if Crawford decided to terminate his contract early, but who in their right mind would give up $9.4 million dollars? That’s not going to happen, which means that this feud/saga will continue to drag on. Golden State would also like to trade Jamal, but he has another two years and $19.4 million left on his contract, which means that any team saving up for the summer of 2010 is not going to go near him.

What bothers me most about this situation is that it’s a direct result of Don Nelson not getting along with Al Harrington (Nellie clashed with Al, so they had to trade him to New York for Crawford), which is disturbingly similar to what happened between Nellie and Chris Webber 15 years ago. Whether right or wrong, one major responsibility of being an NBA head coach is finding a way to get along with your key players, and time and time again, Don Nelson has struggled with that. His unrelenting ego has forced the team to make several poor transactions, and as a result, they’ve lost 296 more games than they’ve won since Webber was traded. Meanwhile, the pathethic duo of owner Chris Cohan and team president Bobby Rowell continue to be the biggest jokes around. I think I’m going to be a Clippers fan next season…

Trenton Hassell (Early Termination or $4.4 million)

Trenton Hassell has one year left on the 5 year, $21.75 million contract that he signed in 2004, and something tells me that he won’t be terminating it early. The 8-year vet was one of New Jersey’s worst players in ‘08-09, and his role will be reduced even further next season. At least he’ll have some value when the trade deadline nears.

Rashad McCants (Restricted or Qualifying Offer for $3.6 million)

After averaging 14.9 points and 1.9 threes on 40.7% 3P shooting in ‘07-08, McCants took a step backwards in ‘08-09. His outside shooting fell to just 33.3% 3P, and he was traded to Sacramento before the deadline. I don’t feel that Rashad is much of a short-term or long-term solution for the Kings, so I don’t suggest they offer him a new contract. Unfortunately, I don’t think he’s going to receive many lucrative offers, so he’ll probably just accept the qualifying offer of $3.6 million and try to improve his value by playing better next season.

Likely to Stay: Too Much Potential

Anthony Morrow (Restricted or Team Option for $.7 million)

One reason Nellie is so eager to get rid of Crawford is because Anthony Morrow showed such incredible promise as a rookie. He led the league with a blistering 46.7% 3P shooting, and showed that he’s very poised and willing to put in the extra effort to get better. The Warriors will surely exercise their team option for next season, and if they’re smart, they’ll extend his contract before Morrow can get away. Fantasy Impact: if Nellie forces Crawford to watch in street clothes, then Morrow will have some value, but remember that Jackson and Belinelli are there too.

Chris Douglas-Roberts (Restricted or Team Option for $.7 million)

In ‘08-09, Hassell averaged 20.6 minutes compared to just 13.3 mpg for Douglas-Roberts, but those numbers will likely be reversed next season. CDR played fairly well for a rookie, and has very good potential on both ends of the floor. New Jersey will surely keep Derrick Rose’s college teammate, and he could get more playing time than expected if Vince Carter gets hurt. Fantasy Impact: keep an eye on him in ultra-deep leagues.

Sun Yue (Restricted or Team Option for $.7 million)

It’s hard to figure out what the Lakers were doing with this kid, as he logged just 28 total NBA minutes, but only played in 6 D-League games as well. To see what kind of potential he has, check out his March 15th line against the eventual D-League champion Colorado 14ers. In 36 minutes, Sun scored just 11 points on 4-12 shooting, but he chipped in with 6 rebounds, 4 assists, 3 steals, 2 blocks, and 1 three. If he can improve his outside shot and add some muscle to his frame, he could stick in the NBA. The Lakers are strapped for cash, but you figure they’ll keep Yue around for at least another year (and maybe let him play somewhere this time).

Top 10 Shooting Guards Available

1. Ben Gordon (Unrestricted)

As we saw in his game 2 duel with Ray Allen, Ben Gordon is capable of dropping 40+ points (and giving up 30+) on any given night. However, he goes thru cold streaks, he’s a below average defender, and he’s not exactly a “team guy.” So everyone who knows about his limitations was shocked when he turned down Chicago’s 6-year offer for $59 millionion last summer. Now that everyone is pinching pennies, he’ll be lucky if he gets a deal that’s two-thirds that good. In this recent interview with Mouthpiece Sports hottie Jillian Jesk, BG doesn’t seem too upbeat about the whole situation.

Fantasy Impact: if Gordon leaves the Bulls, John Salmons could start in the backcourt and Luol Deng would get his small forward job back.

2. Von Wafer (Unrestricted)

Before this season, who knew that Vakeaton Wafer would become one of the most coveted free agent shooting guards? Well, after averaging 16.4 points and 1.8 threes on 49.7% FG shooting in 11 starts for the Rockets, that appears to be the case. The 23-year old enjoyed a breakout season, showing off his shooting range and excellent athleticism. Wafer wants to return to Houston, saying that: “I love this organization. They gave me a chance, so I’d love to be back.” However, if the Rockets re-sign Ron Artest, they’ll be hovering around the luxury tax threshold, and adding a backup center to replace Dikembe Mutombo might be a more pressing need. If Ben Gordon demands too much money from the Bulls, they’d be wise to go after Wafer.

3. Allen Iverson (Unrestricted)

While Iverson is a future Hall of Famer, teams must be very wary of him after his disastrous ‘08-09 season. The Pistons went from making it to the Eastern Conference Finals 6 years in a row under Chauncey Billups to finishing below .500 under Iverson, and the last time an Iverson-led team advanced to the 2nd round was in 2003. The fact that AI basically refused to come off the bench for Detroit does not bode well for teams interested in his services, because he’s clearly best suited for a 6th man role at this point in his career. If the 76ers don’t re-sign Andre millioner, would they actually consider bringing Iverson back to Philly? Fantasy Impact: in case you didn’t know, Iverson is no longer a Top 25 fantasy player.

4. Marquis Daniels (Unrestricted or Team Option for $7.4 million)

In 43 starts last season, Daniels averaged a solid 15.3 points, 4.9 boards, 1.2 steals, and .5 blocks on 45.5% FG shooting, filling in admirably for Mike Dunleavy. Since Junior’s health is still a major concern, the Pacers would love to bring Marquis back, but for $7.4 millionion, that seems highly unlikely. Daniels is a very good slasher and defender, but his outside shot has always been shaky. However, he’s still just 28, so he has several good years left in him.

5. Anthony Parker (Unrestricted)

After shooting a stellar 48% FG and 44% 3P in ‘06-07 and ‘07-08, Parker’s shooting numbers fell to just 42.6% FG and 39% 3P this past season. However, he showed that he can be an adequate playmaker (Parker averaged 4.6 assists in January when Jose Calderon was injured) and is still an above average defender. Early reports suggest that Parker and Toronto GM Bryan Colangelo are optimistic a new deal will be worked out, but since he turns 34 in June, I’d like to see him join a real contender. If Eddie House leaves Boston (see below), I think Anthony would be a great fit for the defensive-minded Celtics.

6. Ronald Murray (Unrestricted)

Flip was rock solid as Atlanta’s 6th man this past season, but he shot just 34% FG in the playoffs and the Hawks will likely want to figure out what they’re going to do with Mike Bibby and Marvin Williams before getting to Murray. He turns 30 in July, but Murray is still an explosive scorer and an underrated defender. After making just $1.5 millionion in ‘08-09, Flip is likely due for a raise.

7. Eddie House (Unrestricted or Player Option for $2.9 million)

House seems pretty happy in Boston, so most likely he’ll exercise his player option for another year worth $2.86 millionion. However, there’s also a chance that the 31-year old might prefer long-term security, so if another team shows interest in oferring him a multi-year deal, he could go that route instead. Either way, he’ll be instant offense off the bench once again.

8. Dahntay Jones (Unrestricted)

Jones doesn’t offer much offensively, but it’s hard to argue with Denver’s results. As a starter for one of the league’s best teams, Dahntay routinely guards the opposition’s top scorer, and outside of Ron Artest, he’s one of the most physical wing players in the league. Re-signing Chris Andersen and Anthony Carter might be higher priorities for Denver, which means that Jones will likely be available for any team looking to toughen up. Fantasy Impact: if Dahntay leaves Denver, JR Smith’s value would get a nice boost.

9. Carlos Delfino (Restricted)

Delfino played in the Russian Super League this past season, but he’s already arranged for a $500,000 buy-out (rather small compared to others). This means that Carlos is likely returning to the NBA, where he most recently averaged 9.0 points and 1.5 threes for Toronto. The Raptors still own his rights, so they’ll be able to match any offer made to the 26-year old, but other teams (such as the Knicks) might be interested as well. Fantasy Impact: don’t forget about Delfino in deep leagues.

10. Fred Jones (Unrestricted)

Despite playing for a pathetic Clippers team, Jones had his moments this past season. His 3.6 assists per game (to just 1.3 turnovers) was a career-high, and he made 40% of his threes from January – March. Fred is 30 years old, but he’s still extremely athletic and should latch on with another team.

Savvy Veterans: Solid and Cheap

Quinton Ross (Unrestricted)

For some reason Quinton Ross gets little respect, but I’ve been a fan ever since he came into the league. His excellent wingspan makes him a lockdown defender (Memphis allowed 105.8 points per 100 possessions when he was ON the court, compared to 112.4 points per 100 possessions when he was OFF), and his outside shot is improving. After making just 3-of-21 threes in his first 3 seasons, Ross shot 33-88 (37.5%) from beyond the arc in ‘08-09. Whoever signs this guy will be happy that they did.

Devin Brown (Unrestricted or Player Option for $1.1 mill)

After averaging 11.6 points in 49 starts for New Orleans in ‘06-07 and then playing a key role for Cleveland in ‘07-08, Brown decided to return to New Orleans for ‘08-09. Unfortunately, his role was diminished and he had the worst season of his 7-year career. After barely playing in the playoffs, Devin may choose to sign elsewhere for close to the veteran’s minimum. Brown is a very versatile player, and at 30 years old, he still has a lot left in the tank.

Desmond Mason (Unrestricted)

Mason is another vet who struggled this past season, averaging a career-low 9.9 points per 36 minutes and shooting just 43.5% from the field (terrible for a guy who doesn’t shoot threes). Still, he’s an above average defender who can run the floor, so he should have no problem finding a new team.

Keith Bogans (Unrestricted)

With Courtney Lee and Pietrus in town, Orlando realized that Bogans was expendable, so they traded him to Milwaukee midway thru the season, where he averaged 6 points on 38% FG shooting in 29 games. Bogans just turned 29, and with 464 made threes in his career, he’s a cheap option for teams looking for an experienced shooter.

Luther Head (Unrestricted)

After averaging 10.9 points and 2.2 treys on 44% 3P shooting in ‘06-07, Head has seen his playing time dwindle over the last couple of seasons. In 10 games for Miami, he shot just 37.2% from the field, but I think that Deron Williams’ former college teammate is still capable of capturing some of that ‘06-07 magic. Unfortunately, he’s basically a shooting guard in a point guard’s body, but that hasn’t stopped Eddie House from succeeding. Fantasy Impact: if he lands in the right situation, Luther could bounce back next season.

Borderline Options: Risky

Mario West (Restricted)

After averaging just 4.7 points as a college senior, you have to give Mario West a lot of credit for making the Hawks squad two seasons in a row. He’s still a liability on offense, but his defense is rock solid, so he could be a 12th man for many years to come. Still, his upside is limited.

Cartier Martin (Restricted)

It’s hard to judge Martin because he played just 266 total minutes as a rookie, but he has good size (6′7, 220) and was a solid shooter in college. The Bobcats will likely retain him since he’s a restricted free agent, but until he proves otherwise, Martin is just a borderline NBA player.

Jeremy Richardson (Restricted)

Somehow, Jeremy Richardson has suited up for 5 different NBA teams (including two stints with the Hawks), but he’s played a total of just 245 NBA minutes. In those limited minutes, he’s made just 33.3% of his shots, but the other J-Rich has proven to be a dynamic scorer in D-League and Summer League action. At 26 years old, he only has a few more chances to break thru and become a legit rotation player in the big league.

Alex Acker (Restricted or Team Option for $.7 million)

The Pistons drafted Acker in 2005 and then traded him to the Clippers this past season, where he averaged 3.5 points in 18 games. Like Richardson, he’s already 26, so the time to prove himself is running out.

Morris Almond (Unrestricted)

Almond was drafted #25 overall in 2007 after averaging 26.4 points and 2.4 threes on 48.3% FG shooting as a senior at Rice, but he’s yet to break thru in the NBA. He HAS played very well in the D-League, setting a record with 51-point and 53-point performances. Of course, if he was a better overall player than Kyle Korver, he would have earned more minutes by now. Almond is now an unrestricted free agent, and some team will surely give him a close look. It’s time to find out how good he really is. Fantasy Impact: if he signs elsewhere, Korver and Brewer will get more minutes.

Out of the League???

Maurice Ager (Unrestricted)

Coming out of college, Ager was considered an excellent 3-point shooter with above average athleticism and strong potential on the defensive end. He’s only played 476 NBA minutes, but the stats suggest otherwise. In his brief career, Ager has shot a mere 8-40 (20%) from beyond the arc, and he’s racked up 61 fouls compared to just 5 steals. If I were a GM, I think I’d pass.

Thomas Gardner (Restricted)

Gardner is another “shooting” guard who’s had trouble adjusting to the longer 3-point line. He’s only played 143 minutes in brief stints with the Bulls and Hawks, but he’s shot just 7-35 (20%) on threes and was never considered a top prospect to begin with. Atlanta will be focused on re-signing Flip Murray, so Gardner has to hope he can catch on elsewhere.

Kareem Rush (Unrestricted)

The 6-year NBA veteran has never really lived up to the hype, and unfortunately for him, he’s coming off his worst season yet. In 25 games for Philly, he averaged a mere 2.2 points on 34.5% FG shooting, and he’s shot over 41% FG just once in his career. At 28 years old, he’s likely played his last game in the league, but at least his brother Brandon can carry the family torch.

Juan Dixon (Unrestricted)

It pains me to say this because I was a huge Juan Dixon fan when he won a national championship at Maryland, but his NBA career is likely over. He peaked in ‘05-06, starting 42 games for Portland and averaging 17.5 points per 36 minutes on 38.2% 3P shooting. Unfortunately, he took a big step backwards in ‘08-09, averaging just 11.5 points per 36 minutes on 33.3% 3P shooting. The Wizards gave him a chance because Arenas was out and Dixon is a local legend, but at 30 years old, he’s unlikely to get another NBA contract. Thanks for the memories Juan!

Up next, the small forwards…

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