Breaking Down the 2009 Free Agent Class: Small Forwards

After shining brightly in the playoffs, all three of these guys will be rewarded with lucrative new contracts. But will they stay with their current teams???

Over the next couple of weeks, I will be trying to make some sense out of the 2009 NBA Free Agent class. There are plenty of other lists on the internet featuring “Top Free Agents,” but the ones I’ve seen tend to do a poor job of organizing the information that fans like myself want to know. In an effort to break this down in a useful manner, I am going to sort by position first rather than by team.

After that, I will organize players into a variety of categories. I’ve done my best to double-check these figures, but if you see something that’s incorrect, please let me know. For the die-hard fantasy players, I’ve added “Fantasy Impact” tidbits where I see fit, but the stats are taking a backseat here. Once we have a clear picture of which players are staying, which players are available, and who the top options are at each position, I will take on the General Manager role and make suggestions for several teams. Enjoy…

Likely to Stay: Guaranteed Contracts

Quentin Richardson (Early Termination or $9.4 million)

He shot under 40% FG for the 6th time in the past 7 years, but Q-Rich did manage to average 10.2 points and start 51 games for New York. With $9.4 millionion on the table and a coach who lets him jack up as many threes as he wants, there’s absolutely no way that Q will terminate his contract early.

Kyle Korver (Early Termination or $5.2 million)

Korver continues to be a key component of Utah’s rotation, as his 3-point shooting is essential and his defense isn’t as bad as most people think. With $5.2 millionion waiting for him, it’s highly unlikely that he’ll opt out of his contract.

Joey Graham (Restricted or Qualifying Offer for $3.4 million)

After 4 NBA seasons, Graham has yet to really take his game to the next level. His defense is solid, but his offense is inconsistent at best. I doubt anyone will offer Joey more than $3 millionion per year, so he’ll likely have to accept his $3.4 millionion qualifying offer.

Ricky Davis (Unrestricted or Player Option for $2.5 million)

Did anyone have a worse season than Ricky Davis? He missed 45 games due to a knee injury and suspension, and he averaged just 6.4 points on a pathetic 33.9% shooting from the field. After that disastrous season, it’s unlikely that another team will give him more than $2.5 millionion per year, so he’ll probably exercise his player option and try to bounce back with the Clippers.

Devean George (Unrestricted or Player Option for $2.0 million)

George also had a rough season, averaging just 3.4 points before having arthroscopic surgery on his knee in March. Over the past 2 seasons, Devean has made just 36.7% of his shots, so I doubt that anyone will give him more than the veteran’s minimum. As a result, he’ll likely exercise his player option for $2 millionion.

Yakhouba Diawara (Restricted or Player Option for $.9 million)

Diawara struggled in his 3rd NBA season, shooting just 35% from the field and bringing very little to the table offensively. He’s still a solid defender, but he hasn’t improved much since he came into the league, so he’ll likely exercise his option to stay in Miami and keep his guaranteed contract.

Likely to Stay: Good Value

Jarvis Hayes (Unrestricted or Team Option for $2.0 million)

While Hayes certainly isn’t New Jersey’s long-term answer at small forward, the 27-year old had a decent season, shooting a career-best 44.5% from the field and 38.5% from beyond the arc. Considering that he also plays solid defense, $2 million is a pretty good price for the veteran. In a recent interview he said that thinks he’ll be back, so it sounds like the Nets are going to exercise their team option on him.

Top 10 Small Forwards Available

1. Hedo Turkoglu (Early Termination or $7.4 million)

Turkoglu has really blossomed in Orlando, becoming one of the league’s top clutch scorers who can hurt you in a variety of ways. Whether the Magic win the title or not, it seems likely that Hedo will terminate his contract early. As one of the top free agents of 2009, he should have no problem getting over $8 million per year, so it makes sense for him to opt out while his stock is high. What sucks for Orlando is that they probably won’t be able to keep him due to the exorbitant contract that they gave Rashard Lewis last year. Fantasy Impact: if Hedo leaves the sunshine state, everyone else’s stats will go up.

2. Ron Artest (Unrestricted)

Artest quietly had a strong year, leading Houston to a 7th game against the Lakers in the 2nd round of the playoffs despite losing McGrady in the middle of the season and Yao at the very end. He played his usual brand of stellar defense while also making a career-best 2.2 threes on 40% 3P shooting. If there weren’t concerns about his age (turns 30 in November), his durability (has played 75+ games just once in his career), and his overall craziness (have you seen his latest vid?), then he would be #1 on this list. He’s going to have many suitors, but he may just stay in Houston.

3. Trevor Ariza (Unrestricted)

Has any player improved their free agent value more than Trevor Ariza this postseason? I don’t think so. The rising star turns 24 at the end of the month, and he’s going to get a BIG contract this summer. He’s always been a great slasher and defender, but his outside shot has improved by leaps and bounds. Before he got to the Lakers, Ariza had shot just 4-28 (14.3%) from beyond the arc, but since then (including the playoffs), he’s made 97-of-270 (35.9%) treys. Ariza will only get better as his offensive game continues to expand, so his future looks extremely bright. The Lakers will do everything they can this summer to retain him, but who knows how much another team might offer?

4. Shawn Marion (Unrestricted)

Marion’s value has declined quite a bit since he left Mike D’Antoni’s system in Phoenix, but he’s still a solid all-around forward who could be a big asset for any team that wants to run-and-gun. One negative is that he turned 30 in May, but he’s not the veteran leader that one would hope for. For Toronto, they first need to decide if they’re going to keep Chris Bosh or not. Marion wants to play for a winner, and without Bosh, the Raptors will have a tough time doing that. Fantasy Impact: Toronto’s roster could look very different next season, so pay close attention to them over the summer.

5. Marvin Williams (Restricted or Qualifying Offer for $7.4 million)

This is a tough one, as Marvin turns 23 in June and still has a lot of potential. However, he’s missed a lot of games in his young career and if I were a GM, I would want to see more from him before offering him a lucrative long-term contract. Sure, he extended his range to the 3-point line this past season, but he’s still an average defender who doesn’t wow you in any particular way. Do most teams feel the same way, or will someone tender him a sweet deal? I think there’s an outside shot that Williams could get traded, but most likely, he’ll accept the qualifying offer and become an unrestricted free agent next year.

6. Josh Childress (Restricted)

Remember him? After playing for Olympiakos in Greece this past season, Childress has said that he’ll weigh his options over the summer. This means that he could be returning to the NBA, where Atlanta still owns his rights and would be able to match any offer for him. I would love to see J-Chill back in the league, but the Hawks already found a serviceable replacement for him (Mo Evans), and they have other free agent decisions to make (Bibby, Flip, Marvin, etc.). It wouldn’t surprise me at all if an NBA team lures him back and the Hawks let him go. Fantasy Impact: if Childress returns, don’t forget about him on draft day. The guy is too good to not get minutes.

7. Linas Kleiza (Restricted or Qualifying Offer for $2.7 million)

He didn’t get a lot of playing time for Denver in the playoffs, but Kleiza is still a very talented Lithuanian baller. And at the age of 24, his best days are still ahead of him. The Nuggets have several other free agents to worry about (Chris Andersen, Anthony Carter, Dahntay Jones, etc.), so they might not have enough cash to keep Linas. He’s a decent shooter who can run the floor well, but his defense is still rather suspect. Has he proven enough to get a long-term deal?

8. Grant Hill (Unrestricted)

At the age of 36, Grant Hill is still an above average NBA small forward. He’s extremely versatile on defense and very efficient on offense (58.4% TS), and he seems like a great locker room presence. So how much are the Suns willing to pay him? Basically, Phoenix needs to decide if they’re trying to win now (keep Nash, Shaq, and Hill), or if they’re better off re-building. If it’s the latter, Hill will have no problem leaving to join a contender.

9. Rodney Carney (Unrestricted)

Hoopshype says that Minnesota has a Team Option for $2.5 million on Carney, but after doing some research, that appears to be incorrect. The 25-year old made great strides this past season, especially after Kevin McHale took over as head coach. He used his superb athleticism to become Minnesota’s best perimeter defender, and he became a legit outside threat by averaging 2.4 threes per 36 minutes on 35% 3P shooting. In the postseason we’ve seen how valuable a guy like Mickael Pietrus can be, and Carney can play a similar role if he joins the right team and continues to develop. With Corey Brewer returning from injury, Carney might be leaving Minnesota.

10. Jamario Moon (Restricted)

Some of his numbers were way down this season, but Moon seemed to be rejuvenated after being traded to Miami. The Heat will be able to match any offer made to him, but their current payroll is already pretty high and they may want to go in a different direction. Jamario has 2 years of NBA experience under his belt, but he’s already 28, so his upside seems limited. Personally, I would much rather sign Carney.

Savvy Veterans: Solid and Cheap

Matt Barnes (Unrestricted)

After signing a 1-year deal with Phoenix last summer, Barnes is a free agent once again. With Grant Hill’s status also up in the air, the Suns have some decisions to make at small forward. Barnes is younger and more versatile offensively, but Hill is the superior defender. If Phoenix doesn’t want him back, he should have no problem finding a new home.

Michael Finley (Unrestricted or Player Option for $2.5 million)

At this point in his career, the 14-year veteran is strictly an outside shooter. Finley used to take it hard to the basket, but this past season he averaged a meager 1.0 free throw attempts per 36 minutes. However, he shot a career-best 41.1% from beyond the arc, and has shot over 36% 3P for 7 years in a row now. This summer, he could either exercise his player option, retire, or sign with another team.

Ime Udoka (Unrestricted)

What Finley decides to do may effect what happens to Udoka. Ime’s 3-point shooting plummeted to just 32.8% in ‘08-09, but he’s still an excellent defender who is willing to do all the dirty work. If Finley leaves or retires, the Spurs might bring Udoka back for a minimum salary, but if Finley stays, Udoka will likely sign with someone else.

Damien Wilkins (Unrestricted)

Wilkins has already said that he’s going to exercise his early termination option because he wants more playing time, so he’ll be an unrestricted free agent this summer. Statistically, he had his worst season ever, averaging just 5.3 points on 36.2% FG shooting. However, he’s a versatile swingman who should bounce back a bit next season, and he won’t cost that much either.

Wally Szczerbiak (Unrestricted)

After struggling in the Orlando series, it seems like a certainty that Wally won’t be back in Cleveland next year. But the 32-year old can still contribute, and with his experience and hustle, he should be a solid locker room presence for someone.

Borderline Options: Risky

Stephen Graham (Unrestricted)

Stephen finally got a chance to play decent minutes this past season, but he still has a ways to go before proving that he’s a solid rotation player. He’s a decent defender, but he made just 30% of his threes and is a poor rebounder. Unlike his brother Joey, he doesn’t have a guaranteed contract for next season, and considering his age (he turns 27 in June), his upside is limited.

Gerald Green (Unrestricted)

At the young age of 23, Green has already played for 4 different teams, which is not a good sign. In ‘07-08, he made 38.5% of his threes and averaged 4.5 fouls per 36 minutes, but those numbers declined to 30.4% 3P and 4.9 fouls per 36 minutes this past season. Some team will give him another chance based on his athleticism alone, but potential only gets you so far in life.

Out of the League???

Ryan Bowen (Unrestricted)

To be honest, I’m amazed that Bowen even lasted this long. The 9-year NBA vet has career averages of 2.6 points, 2.1 rebounds, and 1.5 fouls in 12.8 minutes per game, and he’s made a TOTAL of just 14 threes in 6,494 total minutes. He was once a solid hustle player off the bench, but at the age of 33, it’s almost painful to watch him run up and down the floor now. As the #55 pick in the 1998 draft, Bowen’s NBA career has lasted longer than Michael Olowokandi (#1 pick), Robert Traylor (#6), Jason Williams (#7), Bonzi Wells (#11), Michael Doleac (#12), Keon Clark (#13), Michael Dickerson (#14), and many others, which is a pretty impressive feat.

Walter Herrmann (Restricted)

Walter might be done with the NBA as well, but his situation is entirely different. As an excellent 3-point shooter (38.1% 3P for his career) and above average athlete, Herrmann just never got the playing time that he hoped for in the states. As a result, he’s likely headed back to Spain, where he’ll probably average 20 points, 8 boards, and 3 treys per game. It’s a shame that we won’t get to see more of Fabio, because his finger roll is a thing of beauty. Fantasy Impact: if you’re in a Euro fantasy league, don’t forget about Herman!

Up next, the power forwards…

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