2009 End of Season Survey Results

Here is an in-depth look at the results from my 2009 Fantasy Basketball Survey.

For those that don’t know, RotoEvil’s inaugural NBA Fantasy Draft Guide was available for free in 2007 via 82games.com. Due to overwhelming positive responses, I decided to put forth maximum effort and make an even better product for the ‘08-09 season.

When you consider the wealth of free fantasy information on the internet and the fact that Rotoworld’s Draft Guides go for $14.99, the decision to sell RotoEvil’s new & improved Draft Guide for $17.95 was rather bold.

However, I was quite confident that I could help more people win their leagues, and I hoped that superior results would be worth a few extra dollars. So when the ‘08-09 regular season ended, I immediately created an “End of Season” survey to see how everything played out. In order to get the most accurate feedback, this special survey was sent out to RotoEvil Draft Guide customers ONLY. With over 80 responses thus far, I believe the sample size is large enough for us to take a closer look at the results.

Shown below are questions from the survey with results that I found to be useful and/or interesting. If you were one of my customers and you took the time to complete this survey, I truly appreciate it. If you didn’t purchase RotoEvil’s ‘08-09 Draft Guide, perhaps some of their responses will be of particular interest to you…

What is your age?

15% age 18-24
28% age 25-29
40% age 30-39
13% age 40-49
4% age 50+

43% of customer respondents were in the 18-29 age group, while 40% were aged 30-39. I’m surprised there aren’t more people over 40 playing fantasy hoops.

Where are you located?

26% U.S. Mid-Atlantic region (New York, New Jersey, etc.)
26% U.S. California (50/50 split between Northern and Southern Cali)
15% U.S. Great Lakes region (Illinois, Michigan, etc.)
6% U.S. Southwest region
5% U.S. Pacific Northwest region
4% U.S. Southeast region
3% U.S. other
5% Australia / New Zealand
4% Asia
4% Europe
2% World other

85% are from the United States. The East Coast and West Coast are split evenly, with a strong Midwest following as well. The solid chunk from down under doesn’t surprise me (those Aussies love their hoops), but I expected a stronger following from Asia.

How many Fantasy Basketball teams did you manage this season?

39% 1 team
31% 2 teams
13% 3 teams
13% 4-5 teams
4% 6+ teams

70% managed just 1 or 2 teams. This is relevant to some of the questions below that allow respondents to select more than one answer.

What was the Entry Fee for your main league?

32% no entry fee
10% very small (under $40)
22% small ($40-$79)
16% medium ($80-$129)
13% medium-high ($130-$249)
2% high ($250-$599)
5% very high ($600+)

It’s quite surprising that almost 1/3 of my survey respondents didn’t play for money this past season, but were still passionate enough to purchase my Draft Guide. I suppose this is somewhat flattering, but I really hope that more of them attempt to win some money next year. As for the 5% with $600+ entry fees, those are my fellow “NFBBC” competitors. Yes, it’s a serious bunch, and competing against owners who have my Draft Guide isn’t easy.

Which sites were used to run your leagues? (check all that apply)

68% Yahoo
34% ESPN
21% CBS

I was curious to see this breakdown, and the results aren’t too surprising. Yahoo users outnumbered ESPN users 2-to-1 and CBS users more than 3-to-1. In my opinion, CBS still has the best service (at a price), but I love the fact that ESPN offered free auction drafts.

Which scoring system(s) did your league(s) use? (check all that apply)

45% H2H 9-cat
34% Roto 9-cat
28% Roto 8-cat
11% H2H 8-cat
10% H2H 10-cats or more
5% Points-only
4% Roto 10-cats or more
2% H2H Points
2% Other

The Head-to-Head vs. Roto scoring debate rages on, as 68% of my survey respondents played in a H2H league this past season, while 66% played in a Roto league. It’s amazing how evenly split that was. However, the usage of 8 categories vs. 9 categories wasn’t as close, as nearly twice as many respondents used the extra 9th cat. As for me, I don’t believe in using turnovers unless it’s a small fraction of a points formula. Reader “sideburn” recently told me that his league decided to get rid of turnovers after this season, and I hope that more leagues follow suit.

Did you win a fantasy basketball league this season?

17% YES – I won multiple leagues
45% YES – I won one league
9% NO – But I finished 2nd or 3rd in multiple leagues
11% NO – But I finished 2nd or 3rd in one league
6% NO – But I finished in the Top 5
12% NO – I finished in the bottom half of the standings

62% of RotoEvil’s Draft Guide customers won at least one league in ‘08-09, while 82% finished in the Top 3. Unfortunately, 12% finished in the bottom half of their standings, which is unacceptable for me. Next year, I GUARANTEE that figure will be under 10%.

Were your top teams ever in 1st place? (up to 2 selections)

36% YES – I was in 1st place for 5 months or more
17% YES – I was in 1st place for 4 months or more
15% YES – I was in 1st place for 3 months or more
6% YES – I was in 1st place for 2 months or more
7% YES – I was in 1st place for 1 month or more
15% YES – I was in 1st place for a couple of weeks
4% YES – I was in 1st place for a couple of days
17% NO – I was never in 1st place

When you consider that the NBA fantasy season is only 6 months long, the fact that 36% of you were able to stay in 1st place for 5 months or more is extremely impressive. According to the survey results, most of you were able to taste 1st place for at least a few weeks during the season.

For those of you in Head-to-Head leagues, how did your top teams do in the regular season? (up to 3 selections)

52% 1st place = Best Record
30% 2nd place
15% 3rd place
7% 4th place
22% 5th or 6th place
13% Not in the Top 6

A solid 52% of survey respondents in H2H leagues finished the regular season in 1st place. Since there is a lot of luck involved with the H2H Playoff system, one’s regular season record is a better indicator of success.

For those of you in Roto leagues, how did your top teams finish? (up to 3 selections)

13% 1st place – Won by 10+ roto points
13% 1st place – Won by 5 – 9 roto points
32% 1st place – Won by .5 – 4.5 roto points
(58% total 1st place votes)
11% 2nd place – Within 2.5 roto points of 1st
11% 2nd place – Within 7.5 roto points of 1st
(22% total 2nd place votes)
15% 3rd place – Within 5 roto points of 1st
7% 3rd place – Within 10 roto points of 1st
(22% total 3rd place votes)
8% 4th place – Within 10 roto points of 1st
6% 5th or 6th place – Within 15 roto points of 1st
17% Not in the Top 6

Since survey-takers were allowed to choose up to 3 selections, some of this data is rather difficult to interpret. However, 1st place votes totaled 58% , 2nd and 3rd place votes totaled 44%, and everything below totaled just 31%. This means that my customers in Roto leagues performed extremely well, as evidenced by the 13% of you who won a Roto league by a whopping 10 points or more.

Did you make a profit from fantasy hoops this season?

7% YES – I won over $1,000
10% YES – I won over $500
(17% profited over $500)
15% YES – I won over $250
14% YES – I won over $100
(46% profited over $100)
11% YES – I won over $20
(57% profited over $20)
30% NO – I don’t play for money
13% NO – I lost money or broke even

For those of you who didn’t know that money can be made from playing fantasy basketball, just look at the 7% of my customers who won over $1,000 this past season (myself not included). 17% made $500 or more, and a solid 46% made at least $100. Only 13% lost money or broke even, while 30% (many of whom won leagues) didn’t play for money. Again, I wish that more of you played for money, because if you’re putting in the time and effort, you deserve to win some scrilla. Next year, I’m hoping these results will read: 30% profited over $500 and 75% profited over $100, while only 10% didn’t play for money and just 5% lost money or broke even. Let’s make it happen!

If you finished in the Top 3, which of these superstars did you have on your team? (check all that apply)

39% Chris Paul
28% Danny Granger
22% Dwyane Wade
22% LeBron James
21% Dirk Nowitzki
18% Brandon Roy
18% Jason Kidd
18% Pau Gasol
7% Dwight Howard
6% Yao Ming
6% Kevin Durant
6% Kobe Bryant

The point of this question was to find out which superstars led fantasy teams to victory in ‘08-09. A whopping 39% of you who finished in the Top 3 had Chris Paul on your team, which isn’t surprising considering how thoroughly CP3 dominated the assist and steal categories. Despite missing 15 games, Danny Granger still led 28% of you to a top finish, which proves that he was more than worthy of winning the “Most Improved Player” award. Somewhat surprisingly, the ever-solid Dirk led nearly as many teams to success as D. Wade and LeBron did.

If you were able to draft Roy, Kidd, or Pau after pick #20, then you got a fantasy superstar at a bargain price. Meanwhile, only 7% of respondents were able to succeed with Dwight Howard, and only 6% were able to succeed with Kobe. To me, the most head-scratching statistic from this survey is the fact that only 6% of respondents were able to draft Yao Ming and finish in the Top 3. We’re talking about a stud who fell to the 3rd round in many leagues due to injury concerns, but missed just 5 games and ended the season as a Top 10 player in every scoring format. What happened?

Did you DRAFT any breakout, sleeper, or “career year” players due to RotoEvil recommendations?

88% YES
12% NO

In a follow-up question, 90% of you said that drafting breakout and “career year” players is the most important key to winning fantasy leagues, and I wholeheartedly agree. Many sites like to cover their asses by suggesting more than a hundred different players who “COULD have breakout a season,” but that’s not how I roll.

Instead, I focus on a select group of players (maybe 30-40 total) who I feel are ready to have excellent seasons for a variety of reasons. As a result, 88% of my customers were rewarded with a mixture of the players below. As for the other 12%, hopefully they were able to predict their own breakout players and thus they did not need my recommendations.

—Which breakout players did you draft? (check all that apply)

47% David Lee
43% Devin Harris
40% Andris Biedrins
34% Nene
34% Mehmet Okur
29% Nate Robinson
26% Troy Murphy
24% JR Smith
24% Tyrus Thomas
22% Thaddeus Young
21% Chris Duhon
18% Charlie Villanueva
18% Rajon Rondo
16% John Salmons
15% Jeff Green
9% Mario Chalmers
9% Ronny Turiaf
9% Kelenna Azubuike
6% OJ Mayo
5% Tony Parker

I’d like to toot my own horn here, because I predicted breakout or “career year” seasons for all of these players, dating as far back as July 2008. In my opinion, this type of question is the best indicator of one’s Draft Guide, as it shows which key players we were higher on than the “average” fantasy owner. For every player on this list, they provided much better value than where they were likely drafted.

Among survey respondents, a whopping 47% drafted David Lee! That means nearly 1 out of every 2 customers got the league leader in double-doubles, while our competitors who didn’t were probably worried about Eddy Curry’s fat ass stealing some of his minutes. Over 1/4 of you also drafted Harris, Biedrins, Nene, Okur, Nate, and Murphy, and if you got several of those guys, you likely won your league.

For many of these players, I hyped them up on multiple occasions to make sure that my readers were listening. To see what I’m talking about, just check out my Midseason Awards and look for the green font.

How would you rate RotoEvil’s skill at the following:

—Predicting Career Years
38% Excellent
52% Above Average
(90% Above Average or Excellent)
10% Average

—Predicting Breakout Players
43% Excellent
48% Above Average
(91% Above Average or Excellent)
9% Average

For those wondering, here’s how I differentiate the two: “Career year” candidates are guys who are older than 25, have several years of experience under their belt, and are ready to improve their stats for a variety of reasons. On the other hand, I consider “breakout” players to be younger guys who aren’t as established, but are ready to put it all together. As you can see, over 90% of my customers rate my skills at predicting these types of seasons to be either above average or excellent, while not a single person gave a “below average” vote.

How interested would you be in playing COLLEGE fantasy basketball if leagues and information were more readily available?

40% Not at all interested
20% Not really interested
(60% Not interested)
11% Not sure
21% Somewhat interested
8% Very interested
(29% Interested)

I love watching college hoops, but I don’t get into it as much because the fantasy element isn’t there. The survey results are mixed, as 29% are interested in playing college fantasy hoops, but a whopping 40% said they are NOT AT ALL interested.

Did you purchase another fantasy basketball Draft Guide this season?

18% YES
82% NO

Among survey respondents, 18% purchased another Draft Guide, showing how dedicated they are to accumulating information and using it to their advantage.

—For the other Guide(s) that you purchased, please compare theirs to RotoEvil’s.

—Rotoworld
2 out of 9 said Rotoworld’s was much worse
3 out of 9 said Rotoworld’s was a little worse
(5 out of 9 said Rotoworld’s Draft Guide was worse)
3 out of 9 said they were about the same
1 out of 9 said Rotoworld’s was a little better

—Rotowire
1 out of 2 said Rotowire’s was much worse
1 out of 2 said Rotowire’s was a little worse
(2 out of 2 said Rotowire’s was worse)

—Hoopsklyce
1 out of 1 said Hoopsklyce’s was a little worse

—Other
1 out of 3 said Other’s was much worse
1 out of 3 said Other’s was a little worse
(2 out of 3 said Other’s was worse)
1 out of 3 said they were about the same

Adding up all of the votes, 67% said that the other Draft Guides that they purchased were worse than RotoEvil’s, 27% said they were about the same, and only 1 person said that Rotoworld’s was better. Here are a couple of customer comments comparing the two:

“Eric, thanks for the guide. I had been getting Rotoworld’s but yours was a significant improvement, especially in your reassessments of the players’ value as draft day approached.”

“I found your guide very helpful, and as I won both my leagues, the results back that up. I certainly thought your guide was miles better than Rotoworld’s.”

Considering that this was my first “official” Draft Guide and my main competitors have been around for several years, I’m pleased (but not satisfied) with these results. Next year, I’m expecting 90% to say that “RotoEvil’s was much better!”

In addition to the regular scoring cats, which of these categories would you most like to see stat projections added for? (up to 5 selections)

55% Free Throws Made & Attempted
40% Field Goals Made & Attempted
39% 3-Pointers Made & Attempted
29% 3P%
29% Assist/Turnover Ratio
25% Offensive/ Defensive Rebound breakdown
6% Personal Fouls

In an effort to provide my customers with all of the stats that they might need, I’ve decided to include stat projections for ALL of the categories listed above. So for the 2009-10 Draft Guide, users will be able to customize their rankings based on the categories that they need.

Of the following strategy article ideas, which ones would you most like to see added for 2009-10? (up to 5 selections)

78% Top Pick Combos (Which Players to Team Up)
59% The Effect of Coaching Changes
58% Players in Contract Years
46% Trading (Ethics & Strategy)
31% Keepers (Rankings & Strategy)
25% NBA Teams Rising and Falling

In an effort to provide my customers with the best fantasy basketball Draft Guide around, I’m going to add ALL of the strategy articles listed above. Respondents also suggested some other good ideas that I’m considering for next season.

Next season, the player ratings & rankings may include additional factors to help make your draft day decisions easier. How much do you like these new features?

Here is an example of Kevin Martin’s “Risk vs. Reward” factor:
-Kevin Martin
Risk: HIGH
Reward: MEDIUM-HIGH

—Risk vs. Reward
36% Love it
46% Like it
(82% Like or Love it)
8% Not sure
10% Don’t like it

Here is an example of Rajon Rondo’s “Ranking Potential” factor:
-Rajon Rondo
Lock For: Top 50
Good Shot at: Top 36
Potential For: Top 25

—Ranking Potential
65% Love it
31% Like it
(96% Like or Love it)
4% Not sure

Due to popular demand, it looks like BOTH of these features will be added for the 2009-10 season. The “Ranking Potential” factor in particular appears to be a winner, as 96% either Like it or Love it.

In an effort to improve the Draft Guide’s ease of use and accessibility for next season, I’m considering creating a dedicated website where users can login with a customer ID and password. How important is it for you to access the Draft Guide online?

35% Very important
43% Somewhat important
(78% say it’s important)
9% Not sure
13% Not important

Due to popular demand, this is something I will thoroughly look into over the summer to come up with the best possible solution.

In an effort to provide the very best in-season analysis, I’m considering offering a new “full season” subscription product. For around $12, this new service would include daily analysis of the previous night’s games, player rankings updated every week, more frequent player pickup recommendations, and much more. How interested would you be in this new “full season” product?

49% Very interested
33% Somewhat interested
(82% are interested)
14% Not sure
5% Not interested

I’m willing to put RotoEvil’s Draft Guide and preseason analysis up against anyone’s, but when it comes to IN-season analysis, it’s hard to compete with mega-sites like Rotoworld, who are financially backed by major media conglomerates. The fact that 82% of my customers are interested in a separate “full season” product is encouraging, so this is something I will strongly consider over the summer.

Overall, how satisfied were you with RotoEvil’s 2008-09 NBA Fantasy Draft Guide?

53% Very satisfied
47% Satisfied

As the pie chart shows, 53% of customers who responded were VERY Satisfied, while the other 47% were merely “Satisfied.” Not a single person chose “Neutral” or “Dissatisfied,” resulting in a 100% Satisfaction Rate.

If you didn’t have to worry about competing against them, would you recommend RotoEvil’s Draft Guide to your friends who play fantasy hoops?

96% YES
4% Not sure

This is the Catch-22 that I had to come to terms with a long time ago. 96% of you would recommend my fantasy hoops analysis to your friends, but the majority of you aren’t going to because you compete in the same leagues with them. While this limits my growth potential somewhat, I completely understand.

Do you plan on purchasing next season’s Draft Guide?

46% Definitely!
39% Most likely
(85% Likely)
15% Maybe

If I had any doubts about whether or not I would produce a 2009-10 Draft Guide, this question answered them. With 46% saying they “Definitely!” plan on purchasing it again, and another 39% saying they “Most Likely” will, that’s all the motivation I need to do it again and make sure that I create an even better product. Meanwhile, only 15% said “Maybe” and not a single person chose “No Way” or “Probably Not.”

In Conclusion…

I can honestly say that RotoEvil’s 2008-09 Draft Guide was only about 60-70% as good as I expect the 2009-10 version to be, as you can probably tell by all of the improvements and additions that are already in store for next season. In this regard, the fact that my ‘08-09 Satisfaction Rate was 100% is very encouraging, because next season’s product will be much, much better.

Again, I really appreciate all of you who participated in this survey, as well as everyone who has emailed me and added comments on my site. Your feedback is very important, and I will continue to use it as a means of improvement. I’m already looking forward to the 2009-10 NBA season, and I hope that you are as well.

Eric Wong
RotoEvil.com

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