Buy Low, Sell High

Can OJ Mayo and Jason Terry continue to put up stellar stats?

This edition features 4 players who have been playing like superstars and 4 players who have gotten off to poor starts. Sell High, Buy Low, and reap the rewards…

SELL HIGH: Jason Terry

Terry has been nothing short of outstanding thus far. He’s averaging a career-high 20.4 points per game and has scored 20+ points in 11 of his past 14 games. He’s shooting over 80% from the line for the 10th year in a row, but his 3.8 free throw attempts per game is his highest mark in 7 years. Terry’s steals and assists are way up this season, and he currently ranks 17th in steals, 28th in threes, and 42nd in assists per game. Rick Carlisle’s faster pace is definitely helping out “The Jet,” so his improved stats aren’t a fluke.

However, Josh Howard has missed 8 games already, and his absence has forced Terry to play more minutes and take more shots. In games where Howard hasn’t played this season, Terry is averaging 18.4 field goal attempts per game. However, in the 9 games where Howard HAS played, Terry has attempted just 15.2 shots per contest, compared to 16.9 shots for Josh. Basically, Terry is the #2 option on offense when Howard is out, but the #3 option when he’s in the lineup. For this reason, now is a good time to sell high on JT, but only if you can get a superstar in return.

BUY LOW: Michael Redd

Redd missed 14 games with an ankle injury and he’s made just 11-of-27 shots since returning. His current averages of 19.7 points, 2.2 rebounds, 2.2 assists, and .8 steals are his lowest numbers in years, so if you can trade for him now, I highly recommend it.

The trick here is convincing the Redd owner that he’s just a 1-dimensional shooter (somewhat true), so you might be able to land him by packaging a lesser player with a shooter who’s gotten off to a hot start. For example, maybe Charlie Villanueva + Roger Mason would work. That is, until Redd gets hot.

SELL HIGH: John Salmons

While Salmons has been a very solid fantasy player thus far, I’m actually disappointed with his stats and am glad that I don’t own him. Yes, he averaged 19.7 points, 3.2 assists, and 1.1 threes in his first 18 games, but Francisco Garcia missed 17 of those games and Kevin Martin missed 12 of them. Because those two were out, Salmons got 38.3 minutes of playing time and 14.7 field goal attempts per game.

But both men are back now, and John’s numbers are sure to plummet. Once Kev-Mart and Garcia get back up to speed, I think that 12-14 points, 3 assists, and .5 threes per game is much more likely, so I suggest dealing Salmons now before lines like that become a common occurrence.

BUY LOW: Luol Deng

Of all of my Buy Low candidates, Deng is probably the most attainable. After all, his season stats are very poor: 33.0 minutes, 13.1 points, 1.1 steals, and 41.3% FG. They’re so bad in fact, that I’m sure you can get him for very cheap. I understand your reservations for going after him, but I urge you to look a little deeper.

He recently returned from an injury and played just 16 and 26 minutes in his first games back. So let’s throw those games out the window. Some of his worst games have also come against the Celtics, Lakers, and Magic, 3 of the top defensive teams. However, in Deng’s 11 other games, he’s averaging 36.5 minutes, 16.3 points, and 1.3 steals on 45% FG shooting. He had a very solid all-around game on Wednesday, and his season stats can only improve from here on out.

SELL HIGH: O.J. Mayo

If it wasn’t for Derrick Rose stealing some of his thunder, Mayo would be a shoo-in for Rookie of the Year. He’s been a prolific scorer (already has seven 25+ point games) and he ranks 9th in field goal attempts per game, and he’ll continue to jack up shots because Memphis needs all the scoring help it can get. However, there are several categories that seemingly have to go downhill from here.

Mayo currently ranks 5th in minutes played at 39.4 per contest, but the players ahead of him are all veterans. Since 1996, only 4 players have averaged over 39 mpg as a rookie (Iverson, Duncan, and LeBron are the big 3… can you name the 4th?). I don’t doubt that Mayo can play that many minutes for a full 82 game season, but I DO doubt that he can play that much without it hurting his statistics.

In 15 November games, OJ shot 48% from the field, 42% from beyond the arc, and 89% from the line. He didn’t have a prolonged slump, and he was also seeing teams for the first time. Now that defenses have plenty of footage for their scouting reports, it’s going to be much tougher for rookies like Mayo and Rose the second and third time around. He’s also bound to experience an extended shooting slump at some point, so don’t expect him to shoot that well every month. After Mayo’s next scoring outburst, I suggest shopping him around.

BUY LOW: Andre Iguodala

In his last 2 games, Iguodala has scored 44 points on 57% FG shooting, to go along with 14 rebounds, 10 assists, 3 steals, and 1 block. Those are the superstar stats people expected when drafting him, but Iggy was anything but in October & November. In his first 17 games, he averaged just 13.0 points on 39.8% FG shooting. He won’t average 20 points because he’s taking fewer shots, but his points and FG% are sure to rise.

Another problem with Iguodala has been his terrible 68.7% shooting from the line. While he may never duplicate the 82% FT that he shot in ‘06-07, he’ll certainly finish the season above the 70% mark. His 1.5 steals per game has also been disappointing, since he nabbed 2+ steals in each of the past 2 seasons. That’s another stat that should improve, so try to get him now while his value is still low.

SELL HIGH: Marcus Camby

Camby missed the first 3 games of the season and then his minutes were limited in the next 2, but since then he’s been rock solid. In his last 13 games, he’s averaging 10.3 points, 10.9 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 2.6 blocks, and just 1.3 turnovers per game. He’s also shooting 50.5% from the field (his highest mark in 8 years) and 78.4% from the line (his highest mark of all-time). In fact, Camby has NEVER shot better than 73% FT, so the chances of him finishing the season over 78% are quite slim.

In 9-cat leagues, Camby is currently ranked as a Top 15 player, but I strongly suggest trading him before Chris Kaman comes back. In Zach Randolph’s first game as a Clipper, Kaman played just 12 minutes due to injury, so we’ve yet to see all 3 big men healthy in the same game. While I don’t think that Camby will be the odd man out, he WILL BE if he gets hurt. Last Friday, Marcus dunked the ball and it looked like he landed okay, but he grimaced in pain and hobbled off the court. He was able to return later, but if he had missed the next week it wouldn’t have surprised me. In case you forgot about how injury-prone Camby is, here’s a special collage I put together for you. Sell high while you still can!

BUY LOW: David West

In 76 games last season, West scored 25+ points 22 times (28.9% of games played) and grabbed 10+ rebounds 30 times (39.5%). But in his first 16 games of ‘08-09, he’s posted just 3 of each (18.8%). His 1.3 offensive boards per game is especially disappointing, because he averaged 2.3+ in each of the past 3 seasons. West is too active to not get more 2nd chances for his team, so I’m sure that number will rise.

Another problem has been his 2.6 turnovers per game, well up from his 2.2 last season. However, Morris Peterson has already missed 6 games this season and is shooting just 31% from 3-point range. Last season, he missed just 6 games total and shot 39.4% from beyond the arc. Mo-Pete returned from injury on Wednesday, and when he starts shooting the ball like he did last season, West should get better looks and turn the ball over less. The former Xavier star had a very strong 23 point, 14 rebound game vs. Amare Stoudemire on Wednesday, and I firmly believe that more points and rebounds are on the way.

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