Effects of the Gasol trade

Which players will benefit the most from the recent Pau Gasol trade?

In case you missed it, the Grizzlies traded away Pau Gasol and a 2010 2nd round pick to the Lakers for rookie point guard Javaris Crittenton, the expiring contract of Kwame Brown, the draft rights to Marc Gasol (Pau’s younger bro), Aaron McKie, cash considerations, and 1st round picks in 2008 (top 3 protected) and 2010 (top 6 protected).

This deal would look a lot better for the Grizzlies if they were expecting to receive lottery picks in return, but there’s a very good chance the Lakers are going to make the playoffs in 2008 and 2010 (especially after this trade). As such, it seems like they gave up Pau at a discounted price. Below I’ve examined the fantasy ramifications of the trade.

For those who don’t remember my analysis of the Ricky Davis to Miami trade, here’s what I wrote about Ryan Gomes:

Gomes is entering his 3rd NBA season, can play both SF and PF, and has always produced when given the minutes. The Wolves will want a 3rd scorer that they can rely on and Gomes is their man. He should be a lock for 14+ points, 6+ boards, and 1 steal with solid shooting %’s. Target him in the 12th or 13th round and you’ll have a reliable backup forward.

I followed my advice and happily selected Gomes in the 13th round in one of my leagues. Well, for some reason Randy Wittman didn’t feel like giving Gomes consistent minutes to start the season. The former Providence star averaged just 9.7 points and 3.9 boards in 25.6 minutes per game in November. As a result, I had to drop him and I felt bad about hyping him up. Not long after, Wittman realized that he needed to play Gomes more often. Look what he’s done over his last 22 games:

34 mpg, 15.4 points, 7 rebounds, .9 steals, .9 threes, 48.7% FG, 83.3% FT

Of course, someone else picked him up after I dropped him and has reaped the benefits big time (the same thing happened to me with Nick Collison last year). Don’t you hate it when it takes a coach two months to realize who his best players are? But I digress…

Memphis Grizzlies

Memphis played their 1st game without Gasol on Saturday, committing 23 turnovers en route to a 110-91 loss to Utah. None of their new players suited up, which allowed Brian Cardinal to score 10 points and hit 2 threes in just his 9th game of the season. While it’s nice to see “The Custodian” back in action, he still doesn’t have any fantasy value.

Rudy Gay goes from stud to super-stud with this trade. He pulled down 10 boards on Saturday and will be asked to hit the glass hard with Gasol gone (expect his 6.2 rpg average to shoot up to around 8). He’s officially the MAN in Memphis now, and will probably average 40 minutes per game from here on out. Most of his stats should go up (including his turnovers), but don’t be surprised if his solid 46.8% FG shooting starts to slip.

Mike Miller will have to carry more of the load as well with Gasol gone. He’s already averaging a career-high 6.8 rebounds per game, so I don’t see that number going much higher, but I do forsee more points, threes, assists, and turnovers as he takes on an even bigger role offensively. There are rumors that he’ll be traded next, but I think Memphis would be foolish to give away Mike Miller unless they can get a talented big man in return.

Kwame Brown and Jason Collins are nothing more than big bodies, so Darko Milicic is going to get every chance to live up to his potential now. He played well on Saturday, with 12 points (6-9 FG), 12 boards, and 2 blocks in 36 minutes. He won’t do that every night, but expect his stats to look much better from here on out. If you need blocks and he’s available, pick him up immediately.

One of the main benefactors of the Gasol trade is his buddy, Juan Carlos Navarro. The sharpshooting Spaniard is going to get consistent minutes now as the Grizzlies play small-ball more often and need Navarro’s offense. If you need threes, I suggest doing all you can to land JCN. He currently ranks 13th in threes made, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he finished the season in the top 10 or even the top 5.

The other big benefactor here is Hakim Warrick. Warrick played just 24 minutes on Saturday, but still put up 12 points, 5 boards, 2 assists, 2 blocks, and 1 three. It was just the 4th made three of his career, so don’t expect those very often. And while the high-flyer should be able to block a lot of shots, he’s averaged just .87 blocks per 48 minutes for his career. So don’t expect TOO much from Warrick, but if you need a backup forward, you might want to take a flier on him.

Kyle Lowry has been playing big minutes at point recently, but that’s only because Mike Conley is currently injured. With Javaris Crittenton in the mix now as well, things are even cloudier. I expect Conley to start again once he’s healthy and have the most fantasy value thanks to his steals and assists, but he may not consistently play big minutes. Don’t be surprised if Kyle Lowry gets traded to clear things up a bit.

Los Angeles Lakers

Short-Term (Without Bynum)

Pau Gasol is going to fit nicely into the Lakers’ Triangle Offense. While I don’t think he’s a 20 & 10 guy anymore, his assists should get a nice boost so he’ll maintain his fantasy value. With Kobe drawing so much attention, I also see his FG% (currently at 50%) rising closer to the 53.8% FG mark that he shot last season.

Odom is more of a question mark. Will he strictly play small forward now and start attempting more threes? Will Gasol take away some of his touches and rebounds? Since Odom is currently averaging just 13.2 points and 9.5 rebounds per game, a decrease in either category would really hurt his fantasy value. And while more threes from Lamar would be nice, he’s shooting just 22.4% from beyond the arc this season and just 31.2% 3P for his career, so his FG% will suffer if he starts launching more treys. Keep a close eye on Odom’s stats and be ready to deal him if you get a solid offer.

Ronny Turiaf has been stellar in recent weeks. Over his last 7 games, he’s averaging 26.6 minutes, 10.7 points, 5.1 rebounds, 3.0 blocks and .9 steals per game on 54.9% FG shooting. While his minutes will probably decline with Gasol in town, he’s earned playing time and could have decent value if he keeps blocking shots like that.

Radmanovic has started the past 2 games at small forward, but he probably won’t play enough minutes to have any fantasy value once Gasol suits up. Still, if the Lakers are going to win a Championship like so many people seem to think now, Vlad Rad is going to play a key role with his outside shooting. In fact, I think he’s their #1 X-factor. And since I don’t trust Radman, I’m betting against the Lakers to go all the way.

The oft-inured Luke Walton has been a huge disappointment this season and will play even fewer minutes with Pau in town. Remember how solid he was last year?

Replacing stone hands Kwame with a quality finisher and passer in Pau Gasol will be quite beneficial for the Laker guards. They should get more open looks and more assist opportunities as well. It’s tough to predict how Kobe’s stats will change, but he’s got to be loving this trade.

Long-Term (With Bynum)

It’s too far down the road to speculate how the new look Lakers will perform once Bynum comes back, but it’s pretty scary to think about how much talent they’ll have. The rest of the West has got to be hating Memphis right now for giving up Pau so easily, but like I said, I still don’t think the Lakers have what it takes to win it all.

What do you think?