Evil’s Outlook: Week 11

What do these former UCLA stars have in common? They’re 2 of my top pickups for Week 11.

Evil’s Outlook goes around the league and examines which players are hot and cold and which players you should keep an eye on. The outlook for Week 11 suggests 97 players who are safe starts and 46 players who are borderline, so if your league is much smaller or larger, adjust accordingly. Listed first are the # of games played for each team, followed by 5 teams with poor and favorable schedules.

After that are my 3 Top Pickups for deep leagues and my Top 5 Fill-Ins for short-term help. Lastly, all 30 NBA teams are listed in alphabetical order. Ideally, you’ll be able to get a good feel of what’s going on around the league just by reading this, even if you didn’t watch a single game or look at any boxscores last week.

4 games: BOS, CHA, DAL, GS, HOU, IND, LAC, LAL, MIA, MIL, OKC, ORL, PHI, SAC, TOR, WAS
3 games: ATL, CHI, DEN, DET, MEM, NJ, NOR, NY, PHO, SA, UTA
2 games: CLE, POR

5 Poor Schedules

1. Cleveland Cavaliers (2 games – Charlotte, Boston)
2. Atlanta Hawks (3 games – Orlando, @Orlando, Philadelphia)
3. Boston Celtics (4 games – @Charlotte, Houston, @Cleveland, @Toronto)
4. Los Angeles Clippers (4 games – @Dallas, @San Antonio, @New Orleans, Phoenix)
5. Philadelphia 76ers (4 games – Houston, @Milwaukee, Charlotte, @Atlanta)

5 Favorable Schedules

1. Los Angeles Lakers (4 games – New Orleans, @Golden State, Indiana, Miami)
2. Indiana Pacers (4 games – @Denver, @Phoenix, @LA Lakers, @Golden State)
3. Dallas Mavericks (4 games – LA Clippers, New York, @Phoenix, @Sacramento)
4. Milwaukee Bucks (4 games – Toronto, Philadelphia, New Jersey, @Minnesota)
5. Chicago Bulls (3 games – Sacramento, Washington, Oklahoma City)

Top 3 Pickups

1. Kevin Love (Timberwolves)

Kevin Love’s rookie season has been rather disappointing thus far, but it looks like he’s starting to get the hang of things. Last Monday, he scored 17 points, grabbed 7 boards, and had 1 steal and 1 block in 31 minutes. Last Friday, Love scored 19 points and grabbed 8 boards in just 26 minutes vs. the Warriors. And then on Saturday, the UCLA product scored 18 points and snagged 12 rebounds in only 21 minutes vs. the Bulls. In those 3 games he shot a combined 18-31 from the field and 18-23 from the line, but most importantly, Minnesota WON all 3 games. Love has been especially impressive on the offensive glass, where the undersized big man currently leads the league with 7.0 offensive boards per 48 minutes. The rookie has clearly earned more playing time, and if he gets it, he’ll be a solid starter from here on out.

2. Trevor Ariza (Lakers)

Luke Walton missed Sunday’s game with a toe problem called sesamoiditis and he’s out indefinitely, meaning more minutes just opened up in the Lakers’ lineup. Trevor Ariza has been incredibly efficient this season in limited playing time off the bench, but now he’s going to start and get 30+ minutes. He won’t score a ton of points, but in his last 3 games, Ariza has chipped in 23 rebounds, 8 assists, 8 steals, 4 blocks, and 2 threes. The former Bruin currently ranks 2nd (just behind Chris Paul) in steals per 48 minutes, and if you’re in a roto league, you might be able to gain several points in that category just by picking him up.

3. Anthony Parker (Raptors)

Anthony Parker was a rock solid Roto player in October & November, when he averaged 35 minutes, 10.9 points, 1.9 threes, and 1.6 steals per game. However, his minutes and production plummeted in December, and he lost his starting job to Jason Kapono when he got hurt. Well, what goes around comes around, as Kapono missed Toronto’s New Year’s Eve game with a quad injury and Parker got his starting job back. In 3 games since, Parker has scored 46 points, grabbed 16 rebounds, dished out 9 assists, and grabbed 8 steals. The sharpshooter has made just 2 threes, but he made 13-of-16 shots from the field on Sunday and more treys will come when Jermaine O’Neal returns. If you need a swingman who’s related to a hot WNBA player, then Anthony Parker is your man.

Top 5 Fill-Ins

My “Top 3 Pickups” are guys who have the potential to provide solid long-term help for fantasy teams, but my “Top 5 Fill-Ins” are guys who you should consider picking up if you need short-term help in certain categories. Even in deep leagues, most of these players will usually fly under the radar, but they could fill-in quite nicely.

for Boards & FG%: Anderson Varejao (Cavaliers)

Unfortunately for Cleveland, Zydrunas Ilgauskas is going to miss up to a month due to a chipped talus bone in his left foot. I hope Big Z returns healthy, but we’re talking about a 7-foot-3 man who’s 33 years old and has had major foot surgeries in the past. Enter: 26-year old Anderson Varejao, who scored a career-high 26 points on Friday (the 1st game that Z missed). The Brazilian won’t score 20+ points very often, but he shoots a great % from the field, is going to inhale rebounds (51 in his last 5 games), and is a nice source of steals (5 in his last 3 games). Pick him up immediately if you need a big man, because Sideshow V is going to be superb while Big Z is out.

for Boards & Blocks: Joakim Noah (Bulls) and Antonio McDyess (Pistons)

Drew Gooden has missed 8 games in a row with a sprained ankle, and Joakim Noah is finally starting to take advantage. In his last 4 games, Noah is averaging a solid 10 points, 9 rebounds, and 2 blocks on 52% FG shooting. He played just 14 minutes on Saturday, but that was mainly due to foul trouble. Nearly half of his rebounds have been on the offensive end, and his 6.8 offensive boards per 48 minutes ranks 2nd in the NBA behind Kevin Love. As long as Gooden is out, Joakim should put up decent big man stats.

Antonio McDyess returned from a rib injury to grab 15 boards in just 23 minutes on Sunday. Yes, Rasheed Wallace missed that game, but McDyess was hitting the glass hard even before that, as he averaged 7.6 boards and .9 blocks in the 7 games before he got hurt. With Rasheed Wallace ailing, Jason Maxiell doing very litte, Amir Johnson being very unreliable, and Kwame Brown being Kwame Brown, the Dice man could be in for an increase in playing time.

for Steals & Assists: Sebastian Telfair (Timberwolves)

Veteran PG Kevin Ollie had been playing big minutes for Minnesota, but he left Saturday’s game early with a dislocated elbow. As a result, Telfair will likely get more minutes. In his last 3 games, Sebastian has dished out 15 assists and grabbed 5 steals, and he played a surprising 39 minutes on Saturday (McCants received a DNP-CP in the same game). If you’re in a deep league and you need assists, Telfair might be able to help you out.

for Points & Threes: Rudy Fernandez (Trail Blazers)

Rudy Fernandez got off to a great start in his rookie season, but his minutes dropped in mid-December and he was likely dropped in many leagues. However, he’s played 36 minutes in each of Portland’s last 2 games because Brandon Roy is out with a hamstring injury. In those 2 games, Fernandez has scored 33 points and made 5 threes, and that was against the Hornets and Lakers. Portland plays just 2 games in week 11, but I’m predicting that Rudy will have a monster game against the Warriors. Yes, Roy is supposed to return in 7-10 days, but hamstring injuries can be tricky and the Blazers may choose to give him more rest.

Atlanta Hawks (3 games)

The Hawks beat a tough Houston team on Saturday thanks to a Mike Bibby three, and they’ve now won 10 of their last 12 games (with their only losses to Boston & New Jersey by a combined 5 points). Joe Johnson had a season-high 14 assists and continues to play like a superstar. Josh Smith had a season-high 29 points on Saturday and has scored 20+ in 4 of his last 5 games now. Marvin Williams missed Saturday’s game and is going to have an MRI on his shoulder, so get him on your bench and keep an eye on Mo Evans and Flip Murray.

START: J. Johnson, J-Smoov, Bibby
BORDERLINE: Horford
BENCH: M. Williams
WATCH: Evans, Murray

Boston Celtics (4 games)

Boston has suddenly lost 4 of their last 6 games, but all of them were on the road. You can’t blame Paul Pierce, who is averaging 28.3 points in his last 3 games. Garnett was limited to just 29 minutes on Sunday due to a leg injury, but he should be fine for week 11. Boston has a tough schedule this week, so consider benching Kendrick Perkins.

START: Pierce, Garnett, R. Allen, Rondo
BORDERLINE: Perkins

Charlotte Bobcats (4 games)

Gerald Wallace is hot, averaging 22 points on 50% shooting from the field in his last 4 games. He’s also getting to the line quite a bit and shooting a career-best 79% FT, increasing his fantasy value greatly. In 10 starts for Charlotte, Boris Diaw is averaging a rock-solid 15.1 points, 7.6 boards, 5.0 assists, 1.1 threes, and .6 blocks on 48.5% FG shooting. Raja Bell has missed 3 games in a row with a groin injury, so consider starting DJ Augustin and keep an eye on Matt Carroll.

START: G. Wallace, Okafor, Diaw, Felton
BORDERLINE: Augustin
BENCH: Bell
WATCH: Carroll

Chicago Bulls (3 games)

The Bulls have lost 3 games in a row and Drew Gooden & Luol Deng are still sidelined by injuries. However, with games against the Kings, Wizards, and Thunder this week, Derrick Rose & Ben Gordon should put up a ton of points. Tyrus Thomas exploded for 15 points, 8 boards, 2 steals, and 8 blocks on Saturday, so hopefully you started him. Joakim Noah has been playing much better recently, so consider starting him if you need another big man.

START: D. Rose, B. Gordon, Ty Thomas
BORDERLINE: Nocioni, Noah
BENCH: Gooden, Deng

Cleveland Cavaliers (2 games)

In one of the biggest upsets of the season, the Cavs lost to the Wizards on Sunday. LeBron has been attempting more threes as of late, and has made 10 treys in his last 4 games. With just 2 games this week, the rest of his teammates are borderline starters at best. Varejao & Ben Wallace are much more valuable with Ilgauskas out, and we’ll even get to see what the rookie JJ Hickson can do.

START: LeBron
BORDERLINE: Mo Williams, D. West, Varejao
BENCH: Big Z, B. Wallace

Dallas Mavericks (4 games)

How did Dallas lose to Memphis by 20 points on Sunday? Well, it doesn’t help when your leading rebounders are your point guards (Kidd and Barea had 6 a piece, while no one else had more than 4). Josh Howard continues to disappoint, as almost all of his numbers are down this year. We’re all waiting for Jason Terry to cool off, but it hasn’t happened yet.

START: Dirk, Kidd, Terry, J. Howard
BORDERLINE: Dampier

Denver Nuggets (3 games)

The Nuggets have won 3 games in a row and now have a solid lead in the Northwest Division. Chauncey Billups is in a mini-slump, but you’ve got to keep him active. Carmelo & Nene continue to be bothered by pain, but are still posting solid numbers. After starting the season 17-for-59 (28.8%) from beyond the arc, JR Smith has made 47-of-108 threes since (43.5%). Linas Kleiza & Chris Andersen have been solid, but they aren’t getting enough minutes to rely on them, so look for other options.

START: Anthony, Billups, Nene
BORDERLINE: K-Mart, JR Smith
DROP: Kleiza, Andersen

Detroit Pistons (3 games)

Rip Hamilton has missed 4 games in a row and Rasheed Wallace has missed the last 2, but the Pistons have won 7 games in a row. Rodney Stuckey has been a scoring machine recently, and Tayshaun Prince has also picked up his play. Check on Monday afternoon to see if there’s an update on Wallace, as the start/bench status of Amir Johnson & Antonio McDyess depends on it.

START: Iverson, Stuckey, Prince
BORDERLINE: Amir, McDyess
BENCH: Hamilton, R. Wallace

Golden St. Warriors (4 games)

The Warriors beat the Celtics less than 10 days ago, but are coming off back-to-back losses to the Thunder and Timberwolves. Biedrins has grabbed 58 boards, 7 steals, and 8 blocks in his last 4 games. Jamal Crawford is averaging just 13.5 points in his last 4 games, but a monster night should be right around the corner. Belinelli, Azubuike, and CJ Watson have all played well, but they’ll probably lose minutes when Corey Maggette (now practicing) returns.

START: Biedrins, S. Jackson, Crawford, Belinelli
BORDERLINE: Azubuike, CJ Watson, Turiaf
BENCH: Maggette

Houston Rockets (4 games)

The Rockets have lost 3 of their last 4 games and have fallen to 4th place in the brutal Southwest division. Both McGrady & Artest sat out Saturday’s game to rest injuries, and it’s tough to rely on them right now. Brent Barry & Von Wafer started in thier places, so keep an eye on them if you need threes. Rafer Alston set season-highs with 44 minutes and 9 dimes on Saturday, so now is the time to start him.

START: Yao, Scola, Alston
BORDERLINE: Artest, T-Mac
BENCH: Battier, Landry
WATCH: Barry, Wafer

Indiana Pacers (4 games)

Danny Granger has been putting up monster numbers all season long, but now he’s dishing out 4+ assists every night as well. Did you sleep on Troy Murphy? The former Warrior is averaging 14.1 boards and 1.8 treys in his last 9 games. Jarrett Jack is still starting ahead of TJ Ford at PG, but TJ is still working his way back from injuries. The Pacers have a favorable schedule this week so you can start Marquis Daniels, but Mike Dunleavy’s return is looming.

START: Granger, Murphy, Ford, M. Daniels, Jack
BORDERLINE: Hibbert
BENCH: Dunleavy

L.A. Clippers (4 games)

Marcus Camby has been dominant with Kaman & Randolph out, averaging 16 points, a ridiculous 19.2 rebounds, and 2.6 blocks in his last 5 games. Rookie Eric Gordon scored a career-high 31 points on Sunday and is getting all the shots he can handle since his team is depleted. Baron Davis has missed 2 games in a row, making him a questionable start this week. If Baron is out for an extended period, keep an eye on Fred Jones & Mardy Collins.

START: Camby, E. Gordon, Thornton
BENCH: Kaman, Z. Randolph, B. Davis
WATCH: F. Jones, M. Collins

L.A. Lakers (4 games)

The Lakers have a very favorable schedule this week, so consider starting whoever you have. Andrew Bynum has just 1 double-double in his last 8 games, which is pretty disappointing for a guy who averaged 13.1 points and 10.2 rebounds last season. Trevor Ariza & Lamar Odom should put up better stats with Luke Walton out, so get them in your lineups.

START: Kobe, P. Gasol, Bynum, Fisher, Ariza, Odom
BORDERLINE: Vujacic

Memphis Grizzlies (3 games)

OJ Mayo continues to log heavy minutes, but he’s yet to have a prolonged slump like his teammate Rudy Gay. Marc Gasol is averaging 37.6 minutes, 15.4 points, 9.0 boards, and 1.8 blocks in his last 5 games. Since I named him a top pickup last week, Hakim Warrick has racked up 59 points, 16 boards, 5 steals, and 4 blocks in just 3 games. For what it’s worth, Marko Jaric played a season-high 14 minutes on Sunday, Hamed Haddadi played just his second game of his NBA career, and Darius Miles saw his first NBA action since 2006.

START: Gay, Mayo, M. Gasol
BORDERLINE: Warrick
BENCH: Lowry

Miami Heat (4 games)

Shawn Marion’s disappointing season continues, as he missed his 4th game of the season on Saturday due to back spasms. Michael Beasley had a nice game in his absence (17 points, 7 boards, 2 steals, and 1 block in 41 minutes), but it was the 1st time he played 32+ minutes since November 14th. Daequan Cook has been excellent recently, averaging 13.8 points and a whopping 3.5 threes in his last 11 games. Unfortunately, James Jones may return soon and limit his value.

START: Wade, Haslem, Chalmers, Cook
BORDERLINE: Marion, Beasley
BENCH: J. Anthony

Milwaukee Bucks (4 games)

Michael Redd is finally putting up consistently solid stats, so make sure he’s in your lineup. Bogut missed Saturday’s game with back spasms, but you probably want to start him unless you have better options. Charlie Villanueva’s name has been popping up in trade rumors, but he continues to play poorly and wonder why he doesn’t get more minutes.

START: Redd, R. Jefferson, Bogut, Ridnour
BORDERLINE: Villanueva
BENCH: Mbah a Moute

Minnesota Timberwolves (3 games)

The surging Wolves have won 4 of their last 6 games after starting the season 4-19. Al Jefferson averaged a monster 27.3 points and 13.8 boards in those 4 wins. Mike Miller finally returned from his ankle injury, but his minutes have been limited and his shot looks rusty. You can safely drop Rashad McCants now, but I don’t suggest starting Miller yet.

START: A. Jefferson, Foye
BORDERLINE: Love, Gomes
BENCH: M. Miller, Telfair
DROP: McCants

New Jersey Nets (3 games)

Devin Harris missed Saturday’s game with a hamstring injury, but it doesn’t sound serious so you probably want to keep him active. Vince Carter is just 13-47 (27.7%) from the field in his last 3 games, but he made another game-winner on Saturday and continues to put up solid numbers. Brook Lopez is quietly averaging 11.8 points, 8.8 boards, and 2.2 blocks on 48.7% FG and 80% FT as New Jersey’s starting center. Bobby Simmons & Keyon Dooling are playing better recently, so keep an eye on them.

START: Harris, V. Carter, B. Lopez
BENCH: Jianlian
WATCH: B. Simmons, Dooling

New Orleans Hornets (3 games)

David West’s rebounds are still down, but he’s attempting more shots lately and is shooting nearly 90% from the line. Peja Stojakovic has made 8 treys in his last 2 games, so feel free to start him. Tyson Chandler’s awful season continues, as he was suspended for Saturday’s game and has recorded 12+ boards just twice this season (he averaged 11.8 rebounds last season and 12.4 the year before). James Posey has been getting more playing time recently, so give him a look if you need steals and threes.

START: Paul, D. West, Stojakovic
BENCH: T. Chandler, Posey

New York Knicks (3 games)

Since Zach Randolph got traded, David Lee has posted 20 double-doubles in 22 games (not bad). Al Harrington has been putting up excellent numbers off the bench, but Nate Robinson is slumping. Wilson Chandler erupted for a career-high 31 points on Sunday to go along with 8 boards, 2 steals, 2 threes, and 1 block, showing what he’s capable of doing when he knocks down shots.

START: D. Lee, Duhon, Harrington, W. Chandler
BORDERLINE: N. Robinson
BENCH: Q-Rich

Oklahoma City Thunder (4 games)

Kevin Durant struggled a bit to start the season, but he’s now scored 25+ points in 11 of his last 13 games and the rest of his numbers are way up as well. If you didn’t know that Jeff Green was having a solid season, just look at his last 5 games: 20 points, 7.2 rebounds, 1.4 steals, 1.2 blocks, 1.8 threes, 49% FG, 83% FT. Russell Westbrook scored a career-high 31 points vs. Phoenix last week, and if he’s still available in your league something’s wrong.

START: Durant, Green, Westbrook
BORDERLINE: Watson, Wilcox
WATCH: Collison, Krstic

Orlando Magic (4 games)

Dwight Howard tied his career-high with 39 points on Sunday, but his team lost and his coach ripped him for his poor free throw shooting. Rashard Lewis had a career-high 9 assists and 6 treys on Sunday, and now has a commanding lead in the 3-point race. Mickael Pietrus is out indefinitely with a fractured wrist, so feel free to drop him. Keith Bogans is doing very little as a starter, so keep an eye on Courtney Lee again.

START: D. Howard, Lewis, Turkoglu, J. Nelson
DROP: Pietrus
WATCH: C. Lee

Philadelphia 76ers (4 games)

Both Andres (Miller and Iguodala) have really stepped up their games since Brand went down, making them must-starts. Thaddeus Young is getting big minutes, but his production has really fallen off since his fast start. Philly has a tough schedule this week, so their non-stars are borderline starts.

START: Iguodala, A. Miller
BORDERLINE: T. Young, L. Williams, Dalembert
BENCH: Brand, Speights

Phoenix Suns (3 games)

I don’t mind the drop-off in points, but the fact that Amare is blocking less than half as many shots as he did last season really bothers me. Add Steve Nash to the list of players being bothered by back spasms. He’s already averaging his lowest numbers in years, so the routine DNP’s must really be killing his owners. Shaq continues to play big minutes and put up monster numbers, but how much longer can it last before he gets hurt? Jason Richardson’s stats have been very mediocre since he joined Phoenix, which is pretty disappointing when you think about what he would do in Mike D’Antoni’s system.

START: Stoudemire, Nash, Shaq
BORDERLINE: J-Rich, Hill
BENCH: Barnes, Barbosa

Portland Trail Blazers (2 games)

The Blazers only have 2 games this week, but 1 of them is against the Warriors, so you may want to consider starting Aldridge & Fernandez since Brandon Roy is out. How frustrated are Greg Oden owners? The guy followed up 2 straight double-doubles after X-Mas with a 4 point, 4 rebound, 4 foul performance on Friday and 4 boards and 0 blocks on Sunday. Basically, he’s been a highly touted version of Erick Dampier, except Damp actually shoots over 55% from the field (a rock solid 65.8% in fact).

BORDERLINE: Aldridge, Fernandez
BENCH: Roy, Blake, Oden, Outlaw, Przybilla

Sacramento Kings (4 games)

Everyone who drafted Kevin Martin was reminded why on Saturday, when he exploded for 45 points, 7 threes, and 6 assists. Kev-Mart has also made 32-of-32 free throws since returning from his injury, so hopefully he can stay healthy from here on out. Francisco Garcia is racking up steals and blocks, but he continues to struggle with his shot and limited playing time (bench him and start looking for a replacement). Beno Udrih played just 12 minutes on Saturday compared to 34 for Bobby Jackson, so bench Beno and keep an eye on B-Jax.

START: Kev-Mart, B. Miller, Salmons
BORDERLINE: Thompson
BENCH: Hawes, Garcia, Udrih
WATCH: B. Jackson

San Antonio Spurs (3 games)

Tony Parker is currently averaging 21.5 points and 6.8 assists while shooting 80.5% from the line (those numbers would blow away his previous career-highs). Manu Ginobili has played 32+ minutes just twice this season, which has really limited his value thus far. Still, he’s nabbed 13 steals in his last 5 games, which is a good sign that his ankle is improving.

START: Duncan, T. Parker, Ginobili
BENCH: Bonner, R. Mason, Finley

Toronto Raptors (4 games)

An undermanned Toronto squad beat Orlando on Sunday thanks to an excellent game from Anthony Parker (see above). Jermaine O’Neal might return this week, but it sounds like Jose Calderon is going to miss a few more games. Jason Kapono’s run as a starter was short-lived, so you can safely drop him now.

START: Bosh, A. Parker
BORDERLINE: J. O’Neal, Bargnani, Moon
BENCH: Calderon
DROP: Kapono

Utah Jazz (3 games)

Deron Williams shot 4-for-18 on Friday and has scored 20+ points just twice this season (he averaged 18.8 points last year). By comparison, Ronnie Brewer has scored 20+ points in 3 of his last 4 games. Mehmet Okur & Paul Millsap are putting up excellent numbers once again after missing a few games, so make sure they’re active.

START: D. Williams, Okur, Millsap, Kirilenko
BORDERLINE: R. Brewer
BENCH: Boozer, CJ Miles

Washington Wizards (4 games)

Caron Butler is back after missing a few games, and I’m expecting him to heat up soon. Antawn Jamison is averaging 24.2 points in his last 5 games and hit the game-winner on Sunday. Dominic McGuire had his 1st career double-double on Sunday and continues to stuff the stat sheet in the hustle categories. Andray Blatche has been up and down recently, but he’s a decent start if you need blocks.

START: C. Butler, Jamison, M. James, McGuire
BORDERLINE: Blatche
BENCH: Arenas

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