Evil’s Outlook: Week 13

Raise your hand if you knew that Mardy Collins and Brian Skinner were going to have value this season. Anyone???

Evil’s Outlook goes around the league and examines which players are hot and cold and which players you should keep an eye on. The outlook for Week 13 suggests 102 players who are safe starts and 44 players who are borderline, so if your league is much smaller or larger, adjust accordingly. Listed first are the # of games played for each team, followed by 5 teams with poor and favorable schedules.

Since I’ve been working around the clock on my upcoming Midseason Awards, this week’s Outlook was created by longtime reader Craig P. He’s added a new section called “Use With Caution” that I really like, and I can reassure you that he knows his fantasy hoops. In my only auction draft of the season, Craig easily had the best draft, landing breakout stars such as Devin Harris, David Lee, Troy Murphy, and Nate Robinson for just $50 ($200 salary cap).

4 games: ATL, BOS, CHA, CHI, CLE, DAL, DET, GS, HOU, IND, LAC, LAL, MEM, MIL, MIN, NY, PHO, SAC, SA, TOR, UTA, WAS
3 games: DEN, NJ, NOR, POR
2 games: MIA, OKC, ORL, PHI

5 Poor Schedules

1. Miami Heat (2 games – Boston, Orlando)
2. Orlando Magic (2 games – Boston, @Miami)
3. New Jersey Nets (3 games – @New Orleans, @San Antonio, @Memphis)
4. Dallas Mavericks (4 games – @Philadelphia, @Milwaukee, @Detroit, @Boston)
5. Indiana Pacers (4 games – @New Orleans, @San Antonio, Houston, Charlotte)

5 Favorable Schedules

1. Los Angeles Clippers (4 games – Minnesota, LA Lakers, Oklahoma City, @Golden State)
2. Washington Wizards (4 games – @Golden State, @Sacramento, @LA Lakers, @Portland)
3. Chicago Bulls (4 games – @New York, Atlanta, Toronto, @Minnesota)
4. New Orleans Hornets (3 games – Indiana, New Jersey, @Minnesota)
5. Oklahoma City Thunder (2 games – @Golden State, @LA Clippers)

Top 5 Pickups/ Fill-Ins

1. Kirk Hinrich (Bulls)

Hinrich is back from his injury and now is the time to pounce. He was one of last season’s biggest disappointments but I’m chalking that up to the Skiles factor. He won’t take Rose’s position away at PG, but he has the ability to run the point and will take over for Hughes at SG off the bench. Hughes didn´t even play against Toronto the other night and its clear who Del Negro prefers. Del Negro also likes Hinrich´s leadership – something the Bulls are clearly lacking. In addition, there are strong rumours of a trade shipping Hughes out.
Finally, you get the feeling that Hinrich has something to prove as he is only 28 years old – smack in the middle of his prime. Chances are he was dropped in your league and forgotten about after last season´s disaster. But remember he has a career average of 14 points, 6 assists and 1.2 steals. It’s unlikely he’ll get the minutes to average that, but I see 25-30 minutes, 10+ points, 5 assists, a steal and a three or more per game.

2. Mardy Collins (Clippers)

Mardy Collins has played terrific in Baron’s absence. Davis has started basketball activity but is at least a week away, making Collins a must start. He has filled up the stat sheet and in addition, the Clippers have a nice schedule. If he is still available in your league grab him. Knowing Davis´s injury history, Collins could have more value down the road too as he has certainly earned it.

3. Von Wafer (Rockets)

Von Wafer was mentioned last week, but he is worth mentioning again as he is just now starting to get looked at in leagues, even though he has scored in double figures in his last 8 games. He has also chipped in with 16 threes and averaged 1.4 steals per game during that span while his minutes have steadily gone up. With Mcgrady and Artest both out for the next week minimum, and with the Rockets going for 4 games this week, Wafer is a fine addition.

4. Jarrett Jack (Pacers)

Jarret Jack has played really well recently, and even though Ford has returned from a back injury, Jack is wrestling away consistent minutes. In addition, Ford has been sitting out back to back games. The Pacers play back to backs on Monday and Tuesday, so Ford will most likely miss one of those games. The Pacers are going to ease Ford back into minutes, thus you can count on Jack to fill in nicely for your squad this week. He is only owned in 25% of leagues despite giving you almost 13 points, 6 assists, 4 rebounds and 1 steal per game over his last 8.

5. Brian Skinner (Clippers)

Much like Mardy Collins, Skinner has been forced to play big minutes due to all of the Clippers’ injuries.
With Zach Randolph & Kaman out, the veteran has averaged 30.8 minutes, 10 points, 7.3 boards, and 1.8 blocks in his last 4 games. And more minutes could be on the way, because Marcus Camby sprained his ankle on Saturday and has limping around the locker room afterwards. There’s a good chance he’ll miss Monday’s game, and he could be out longer. If that’s the case, Skinner is going to get all the minutes he can handle and will rack up plenty of boards and blocks. If you need a center to fill-in for your squad, Skinner is an excellent short-term pickup.

Use With Caution

1. Nick Young (Wizards)

Nick Young has been hot, going off for his career-high in scoring in 3 of the last 4 games. The back half of the week is a little tough for the Wizards with trips to the Lakers and Blazers but the first half of the week will see them go up against the leaky defenses of the Warriors and Kings. Butler has a wonky ankle and the team has little identity – somebody has to score on this team right? With the Wizards essentially going nowhere it makes sense for them to keep rolling with the young kids to see what they can do. If you need points and threes (Young has hit 8 of them in his last 4) then give him a look. Just be aware that Young gives you nothing else and is certain to cool off a bit.

2. Jerryd Bayless (Blazers)

It seems logical to pick up Jerryd Bayless after Steve Blake´s separated shoulder. But coach Nate McMillan has already stated he is most likely to put whomever in based on match-ups. At this moment, Bayless seems to have won the starter minutes based on the last 2 games. However he hasn´t been dishing out any assists so if you need dimes look elsewhere as Roy is handling most of the point duties anyway. You could also expect either Fernandez or Rodriguez to steal his minutes pending match-ups at any point making his a risky play. If you need points though, he is worth a look in deep leagues.

3. Tyrus Thomas (Bulls)

If you can figure out when Thomas is going to contribute, then please send me 6 random numbers between 1-49. He is in and out of Del Negro´s doghouse constantly and is quickly becoming one of the all-time great fantasy teases. Just like all teases (yeah I´m talking about you Kristy from grade 11), they get you all worked up into a frenzy and just when you think you’ve scored the hottest chick in school, your only reward ends up being a cold shower. Let somebody else have the headache unless you´re desperate for attention.

Atlanta Hawks (4 games)

This is a good week to roll your Hawks as 3 of the 4 teams are in the bottom half of the league in defense. With the exception of Williams (concussion) and Horford (bruised knee) you can play your regulars with confidence. With Horford out and frontcourt issues with the Bucks (Bogut), Raptors (O´neal) and Bulls (Gooden) who all have ailments at the moment, look for Smoov and Zaza to have nice weeks. Zaza won´t give you many points but should collect a tidy sum this week in the rebound department. Depending on the size of your league or if you´re in a daily, you might want to consider Mo Evans. Williams is out with a concussion for at least one game and it is possible he misses more.

START: J. Johnson, J-Smoov, Bibby
BORDERLINE: Pachulia, Evans
BENCH: Horford, M. Williams

Boston Celtics (4 games)

Boston pulled themselves together last week and now sport a modest 4 game winning streak. Perkins still has a lingering shoulder injury and I would bench him this week to be on the safe side. The big game this week has them on the road against the rolling Magic (5th in team defense) after playing Miami the night before, so expect your stars stats to suffer a bit in this one.

START: Pierce, Garnett, R. Allen, Rondo
BENCH: Perkins

Charlotte Bobcats (4 games)

Since Wallace and Larry Brown had their fireside chat, Wallace has been more aggressive, collecting 26 rebounds in his last 2 games. Brown also wants him to go back to attempting more steals and with games against the Pacers, Grizzlies and Suns this week, look for just that to happen. Bell has returned from his groin injury and Augustin has a strained abdomen. Strained abdomens are tricky injuries so he won´t be rushed back. With Carroll being shipped out and Augustin sidelined this should open up more minutes on the floor for Felton and Bell. As for Diop it is still unclear how is role will pan out but he has been nothing but a career back-up player and only gives you modest defensive stats even when given plenty of minutes. It is highly doubtful that he is going to wrestle enough time away from either Diaw or Okafor to make an impact. Oh, and watch for Diaw to go off against a tired Phoenix team on Friday.

START: G. Wallace, Okafor, Diaw, Felton
BORDERLINE: Bell
BENCH: Augustin
WATCH: Diop

Chicago Bulls (4 games)

Gooden is back from his injury but has only played limited minutes so far, although they look to be increasing. He looks safe to play as does Deng who played very well in an overtime win vs. the Cavs draining two 3 pointers in the last minute. You should also consider Hinrich in deeper leagues. He has had 2 solid games and 1 stinker (against the stingy Spurs) in his last 3 but that could be attributed to rust. He will probably average only 25 minutes until Hughes is shipped out but it could be enough in deeper leagues to give your team a boost in 3´s, points, assists and steals. As for Noah and Thomas you have to think about cutting ties with these two yahoos. They perpetually tease us with the odd tantalizing line of fantasy joy but you have a better chance of splitting the atom then figuring out their equation. They have had ample opportunities to prove themselves yet somehow find their way into the doghouse – about the only thing they do consistently. Bench these two until further notice.

START: D. Rose, B. Gordon, Gooden, Deng
BORDERLINE: Nocioni, Hinrich
BENCH: Ty Thomas, Noah

Cleveland Cavaliers (4 games)

Unfortunately for the Cavs, West is going to be out with a fractured wrist for up to 6 weeks. It´s hard to say who is going to get the start each night between Pavlovic, Gibson or Szczerbiak, but most likely they will rotate fantasy value. I´m expecting the lion´s share of the minutes most likely will go to Gibson. So if you´re in need of guard help in deeper leagues and you need to choose between the three then roll with Gibson. Lebron is a must start even if the Cavs had no games (it’s still possible he might score, yes?) but this week – and for the second half of the season the Cavs play a ton of 4 game weeks. Lebron loves the spotlight so look for a big game from him on Monday against the Lakers. Big Z has been cleared to resume basketball activities but will need this week for conditioning. Keep him benched until you see him which means Varejao is a solid option for at least one more week.

START: LeBron, Mo Williams, Varejao
BORDERLINE: B. Wallace, Gibson
BENCH: Big Z, D. West
WATCH: Pavlovic, Wally

Dallas Mavericks (4 games)

Howard was a game-time decision in his last game (sprained wrist) but didn´t play. Starting to sound familiar? For you owners in weekly leagues you have a tough decision to make. He could end up playing one, two, all 4 games or none. Who knows? Unfortunately this makes gambling on Brandon Bass a tough decision as well. With the Mavs facing stiff defenses this week, wait until the last possible moment to look for an update before making a decision. Another player to watch is Matt Carroll. He gives the Mavs a legit 3 point threat and he could end having some value so keep your eye on him.
START: Dirk, Kidd, Terry
BORDERLINE: J. Howard, Dampier
WATCH: Bass, Carroll

Denver Nuggets (3 games)

The Nuggets play 2 of their 3 games on the road this week but do have a stat stuffing game against the Kings at home mid-week. Smith is shooting a soul sucking 12 for 58 in his last 4 games which probably ruined your FG% for the week if he was in your line-up. I can only imagine what Coach Karl is thinking. Kleiza was red hot in his last 2 games shooting a squeaky clean 17 of 24 from the field. It’s possible Kleiza gives you some value this week with Melo out so you could roll the dice in a deeper league. But be warned, Kleiza rarely gives you more then 2 good games in a row.

START: Billups, Nene, K-Mart
BORDERLINE: JR Smith, Kleiza
BENCH: Anthony, Andersen

Detroit Pistons (4 games)

The Pistons play 3 of their 4 games at home with the one lone road game against the Grizzlies. This means your regulars are a lock to start. For deeper leagues, McDyess is also a solid start if you need rebounds.
START: Iverson, Stuckey, Prince, R. Wallace, Hamilton
BORDERLINE: McDyess

Golden St. Warriors (4 games)

The Warriors have 4 games at home this week with the first two against the Wizards and Thunder and their last against the ailing Clippers. Their only snag comes against the league leading defense of the Cavs. No team scores more points at home then the Warriors so look for some big lines out of your regulars. You can also play Azubuike this week with confidence. Belinelli has rolled his ankle, Watson has turf toe and Ellis is still getting into game shape. So unless Nellie puts 4 players on the court (entirely possible), I´m expecting some decent lines from Azubuike.

START: Biedrins, S. Jackson, Crawford, Maggette, Azubuike
BORDERLINE: Turiaf
BENCH: Monta, Belinelli, CJ Watson

Houston Rockets (4 games)

The Rockets have 4 games this week and I do not expect Artest or T-Mac to be back. Keep them benched until you seem them play 2 games in a row. Battier has been hobbled with a sore ankle but has played almost 30 minutes in his last 2 games. The opportunity is there for him this week to play a larger role. Alston is catching fire and Yao is obviously a must start. For those of you who picked up Von Wafer he was solid in points and threes so look for that to continue.
START: Yao, Scola, Alston, Wafer
BORDERLINE: Battier
BENCH: Artest, T-Mac, Landry

Indiana Pacers (4 games)

The Pacers have one of the most difficult schedules out of all 30 teams this week starting with 2 games away at the Hornets and Spurs respectively. With 4 games, Granger, Murphy and Dunleavy are must starts. Dunleavy is a little rusty but his minutes are increasing and he was a lot more aggressive his last game going to the line to make 10 of 11 free throws. What is the word with TJ Ford? A few weeks ago Coach O´Brien said not to read too much into Jack starting but its hard to argue with his play of late. Its also clear Ford isn´t yet 100%. Foster is getting more minutes lately scoring in double figures his last 3 but is more known for his rebounding prowess. With 4 games, give him a look if you happen to be in a deep league with the emphasis on deep.

START: Granger, Murphy, Dunleavy, Jack
BORDERLINE: Ford, Foster

L.A. Clippers (4 games)

Randolph and Davis have just started basketball activity but the speculation is that they need one more week. On top of that, Camby turned his ankle the other night. He made it back to the bench but didn´t play. For fantasy owners everywhere (and for the Clippers sake), lets hope he is ok. Look for an update before setting your line-ups. If he is out for a few games and you have nowhere to turn then you can grab Skinner as the Clippers also have one of the easiest schedules this week. And what can you say about Mardy Collins who has been stellar in Davis´s absence. Grab him if you still can for this week.

START: E. Gordon, Thornton, M. Collins
BORDERLINE: Camby, Skinner
BENCH: B. Davis, Kaman, Z. Randolph

L.A. Lakers (4 games)

The Lakers start (Cavs) and finish (Spurs) their week with difficult games fantasy wise. Coach Jackson gave the Lakers 2 days off after their last loss so they will be fresh Monday and the majority of their players could salvage good fantasy lines at home against the difficult Cavs defense. In addition they do have the ailing Clippers then the non-existent Wizards in the middle making all of your Lakers must plays.

START: Kobe, P. Gasol, Bynum, Fisher, Ariza, Odom
BORDERLINE: Radmanovic

Memphis Grizzlies (4 games)

So how long until Coach Marc Iavaroni is fired? There are rumours of growing dissent and unrest in the Grizzlies camp and the team clearly lacks chemistry and identity. Not to mention it seems to be affecting Gay´s fantasy value. Do you think he is frustrated? Conley´s name is heavily involved in trade rumours and continues to trade time with Lowry. Keep those 2 benched. With 4 games this week you have to play Gay even though he has underperformed to fantasy expectations this season. Mayo and Gasol are safe starts and yes, Warrick too – who has been remarkably consistent over the last month.

START: Gay, Mayo, M. Gasol, Warrick
BENCH: Lowry, Conley

Miami Heat (4 games)

The Heat have the worst schedule of all teams this week making almost all their players virtually useless. First they have the Celtics and then the Magic which means points and fantasy stats will be hard to come by. Keep Wade active and possibly Marion, but bench everyone else. It should be noted though that Marion´s name is heavily involved in trade talks with Toronto, so you might consider benching him too with only 2 games. He has played better recently but he could miss one of those two games if he is traded.

START: Wade
BORDERLINE: Marion
BENCH: Haslem, Chalmers, Beasley, Cook

Milwaukee Bucks (4 games)

With 4 games and an average schedule its safe to play most of the big guns from the Bucks. The exception is Bogut, who is still bothered by back spasms. He didn´t even make the team´s latest 3 game road trip. He could end up playing at some point this week but his back could flair up and then would be sidelined again. If you have other options bench him to be on the safe side. As for Charlie, will the real Villaneuva please stand up? His last 5 games in points scored: 7, 16, 6, 25, 8 – with Bogut out. His minutes are also subject to fluctuate based on Skiles mood for the day. Start at your own risk.

START: Redd, R. Jefferson, Ridnour
BORDERLINE: Bogut, Villanueva, Mbah a Moute
BENCH: Sessions

Minnesota Timberwolves (4 games)

As usual the only sure thing for the Wolves are Jefferson and Foye. Gomes is offering decent value too but is prone to randomly disappearing. With so many teams playing 4 games this week he is a better option for deep leagues. Miller still hasn´t found his rhythm and the only thing you can do is wait it out. Telfair has played better recently as well but is usually too inconsistent and he can kill your FG%.

START: A. Jefferson, Foye, Love
BORDERLINE: Gomes, M. Miller
BENCH: Telfair

New Jersey Nets (3 games)

Devin Harris and the Nets have a tough schedule this week. With stops in New Orleans and San Antonio their only reprieve will come facing the Grizzlies at the end of the week. Harris was benched for the 2nd half of his last game but not to worry. Carter and Lopez are also playable but the rest of the Nets should be benched. Simmons proved to us this last week that even with 4 games and Jianlian out he can´t get it going this year. Leave him benched.

START: Harris, V. Carter, B. Lopez
BENCH: Jianlian, B. Simmons, Dooling, R. Anderson

New Orleans Hornets (3 games)

The Hornets only have 3 games this week but they will play 3 of the weakest defensive teams in the league. Stojakovic has looked much better recently and is worthy of a start along with Paul and West. Has Chandler turned the corner to his ugly season? In 4 of his last 5 games he has had double doubles and a block per game. With the easy schedule I say he is worth the shot this week.

START: Paul, D. West, Stojakovic, T. Chandler
BENCH: Posey

New York Knicks (4 games)

I love this schedule for the Knicks: Chicago, Phoenix and Memphis at home to start the week followed by a trip to Philly. The big game of course is on Wednesday against Phoenix where I´m sure D’antoni is going to try and have the Knicks run circles around the Suns. The only real question mark is Robinson, who continues to struggle with his shot and has been losing minutes recently. It might be better to wait it out until he finds his stroke again. With Robinson struggling, Richardson could be playable this week too as he might look to burn the Suns.

START: D. Lee, Duhon, Harrington, W. Chandler
BORDERLINE: N. Robinson, Q-Rich

Oklahoma City Thunder (2 games)

With only 2 games, do you play your Thunder players? The answer is yes because they play at home against the Warriors and the depleted Clippers. Durant and Green should be played and Westbrook is at least worth a look as these three could pile on the stats this week. In deeper leagues roll with Krstic too. He is getting accustomed to the offense and with this easy schedule we could see a min-breakout from him.
START: Durant, Green
BORDERLINE: Westbrook, Krstic
WATCH: Collison, E. Watson

Orlando Magic (2 games)

The Magic are rolling however. they have 2 tricky games this week. First against Boston and then away at Miami. However, even with 2 games the Magic top 4 seem to always get it done. Nelson might be good option to bench as he will face tough defensive guards but obviously this will depend on the size of your league and team needs. Lee has been playing well in place of the injured Pietrus but is not worth the gamble with only 2 games and stiff competition.

START: D. Howard, Lewis
BORDERLINE: Turkoglu, J. Nelson
BENCH: C. Lee

Philadelphia 76ers (2 games)

The Sixers play twice this week but both times at home and against relatively easy defenses in the Mavericks and the Knicks. Iggy and Miller are worthy of starting but all others are borderline because Brand is nearing his return. How that shakes out for him and the Sixers fantasy wise is yet to be seen, but it is a good week to pass on the borderline players like Young and Dalembert.
START: Iguodala, A. Miller
BORDERLINE: T. Young
BENCH: Brand, Speights, L. Williams, Dalembert

Phoenix Suns (4 games)

The Suns play all 4 games on the road and start the trip against Boston. Then they get the Knicks who will certainly run them into the ground. Following that they head south to Charlotte and then Atlanta. Expect some tired legs and some weak stats from some of the starters. Who would have thought Shaq would be the most surprising player for the Suns this year? He usually skips out on back to back games so he may sit Monday vs Boston. After that though he is a safe play. Barbosa has played well recently too so he is worth considering this week even though his minutes can fluctuate. Richardson continues to disappoint but look for him to burn his former team on Friday.

START: Stoudemire, Nash, Shaq, J-Rich, Hill
BORDERLINE: Barbosa
BENCH: Barnes

Portland Trail Blazers (3 games)

The Blazers play all three of their games at home making their starters playable. Outlaw has been getting minutes and is taking advantage. He has hit double digits in 5 of his last 6, chipped in with 3’s and blocks while collecting a handful of rebounds per game too. As for Bayless? He seems to have won the starters minutes vacated by Blake´s injury. He has outscored Rodriguez but Rodriguez has handed out more assists in less minutes. Roy is handling most of the point duties anyway meaning if you´re searching for assists you should probably look elsewhere.

START: Roy, Aldridge
BORDERLINE: Fernandez, Outlaw, Bayless
BENCH: Blake, Oden, Przybilla

Sacramento Kings (4 games)

That ball hog Kevin Martin has been killing it lately. His teammates don´t like him but fantasy owners are being rewarded for those who waited out his injuries. Brad Miller is getting some run now too which means you need to sit on Hawes. Keep Hawes if you can on your bench as there is a decent possibility that Miller is traded before the deadline. For a late round draft pick Udrih has disappointed fantasy owners who were expecting more consistent and higher numbers considering he was handed the keys to the team. With almost all teams having 4 games, go with something safer if you can.

START: Kev-Mart, B. Miller, Salmons
BORDERLINE: Garcia, Thompson, Udrih
BENCH: Hawes

San Antonio Spurs (4 games)

The fantasy unfriendly Spurs have 4 games. As usual you can play Duncan, Parker and Ginobili and know what you´re going to get. Bonner has been steady and is worth consideration with 4 games. Bench Finley and Mason though, who have been too inconsistent.

START: Duncan, T. Parker, Ginobili
BORDERLINE: Bonner
BENCH: R. Mason, Finley

Toronto Raptors (4 games)

O´Neal continues to be hampered by a knee injury so Bargnani is good to go. In addition, O´Neal gave Bargnani a vote of confidence of his play and stated that he doesn´t mind coming off the bench. If you´re a Bargnani owner this is great news. O´Neal also seems to be a lock to be traded – if the Raptors can get him healthy. Calderon is still hampered with an injury and needs to stay benched. Parker looks great picking up the slack lately so make sure he is in your line-up.

START: Bosh, Bargnani, A. Parker
BORDERLINE: Moon
BENCH: Calderon, J. O’Neal

Utah Jazz (4 games)

Deron Williams has scored over 20 points in his last 4 games while collecting 36 assists. He has also canned nine 3-pointers – a part of his game that is clearly improved. Congratulations if you picked him up on the cheap earlier this season. Boozer remains sidelined with a knee injury while his replacement, the incredible Millsap, just returned from his own knee injury. With 4 games, Millsap is worth the gamble as he just needs a bit more conditioning.

START: D. Williams, Okur, Millsap, Kirilenko
BORDERLINE: R. Brewer
BENCH: Boozer

Washington Wizards (4 games)

The Wizards play all 4 games at home this week with the first two against the Warriors and the Kings (who gave up a whopping twenty-three 3-pointers last week to the Magic). Mike James is hot again and Young had a terrific week so look for them to give you some points and threes. Blatche is also an intriguing option with 4 games. He is still pretty inconsistent but considering their schedule he is worth the gamble if you need rebounds and blocks.

START: C. Butler, Jamison, M. James
BORDERLINE: Blatche, McGuire
BENCH: Arenas

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