Evil’s Outlook – Week 18

Several all-around stat-stuffers are featured this week.

Evil’s Outlook goes around the league and examines which players are hot and cold and which players you should keep an eye on. Listed first are the # of games played for each team, followed by 5 teams with poor and favorable schedules.

After that are 5 Top Pickups and 5 more players to consider, followed by analysis for all 30 teams. The outlook for week 18 suggests 121 players who are safe starts and 38 who are borderline, so adjust accordingly if your league is much smaller or larger.

4 games: ATL, BOS, CHA, CHI, CLE, DAL, DEN, DET, HOU, IND, LAC, LAL, MIN, NOR, NY, ORL, PHI, PHO, POR, SAC, SA, UTA
3 games: GS, MEM, MIA, MIL, NJ, OKC, TOR, WAS

5 Poor Schedules

1. Golden State Warriors (3 games – @LA Clippers, Charlotte, Utah)
2. New Jersey Nets (3 games – Philadelphia, Chicago, New Orleans)
3. Detroit Pistons (4 games – @Miami, @New Orleans, @Orlando, @Boston)
4. San Antonio Spurs (4 games – Dallas, Portland, Cleveland, @Portland)
5. Atlanta Hawks (4 games – @Utah, @Denver, Miami, Cleveland)

5 Favorable Schedules

1. Charlotte Bobcats (4 games – @Phoenix, @Sacramento, @Golden State, @LA Clippers)
2. Utah Jazz (4 games – Atlanta, @Minnesota, Sacramento, @Golden State)
3. Los Angeles Lakers (4 games – @Oklahoma City, Phoenix, @Denver, @Phoenix)
4. Philadelphia 76ers (4 games – @New Jersey, @Washington, @New York, Orlando)
5. Toronto Raptors (3 games – Minnesota, @Phoenix, @Dallas)

Top Pickups

1. Francisco Garcia (Kings)

In the 3 games since Salmons was traded, Garcia has averaged 15.7 points, 4.3 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.7 steals, 2 blocks, and 2 treys in 36 minutes per game. The versatile swingman can help out across the board, and now he’s going to get a good chance to show what he can do. Go swoop him up if he’s still available.

2. Aaron Brooks (Rockets)

With Rafer Alston out of town, the 161 pound Brooks is now Houston’s starting point guard. He had 19 points, 6 boards, 8 assists, 3 treys, and 2 steals on Friday, but he followed that up with just 7 points and 3 assists on 3-for-9 shooting on Sunday. His shooting can be streaky, but he has plenty of range and should make lots of threes the rest of the way. As long as Brooks is dropping dimes and getting steals, he should be a very solid option.

3. Delonte West (Cavs)

I was worried about Delonte being rusty upon his return, but he had a dazzling 25 points, 5 boards, 4 assists, and 1 steal no Sunday while making all 5 of his threes and all 4 of his freebies. When West is hitting his shots he’s an excellent stat producer, so pick him up now if you need guard help.

4. Matt Barnes (Suns)

In 4 games thus far under coach Gentry, Barnes is averaging 9.3 points, 6.3 boards, 5.3 assists, 1.5 steals, and 1.3 threes in just 25 minutes per game. If his playing time increases at all, he’ll be a solid all-around option in most leagues and he should have some very nice games. He’s made 4 of 8 treys in his last 2 games, which is a good sign that he’s out of his shooting funk. With Grant Hill also ailing right now, I think that Barnes will be a very nice stretch run addition.

5. Marquis Daniels (Pacers)

Daniels is back in the starting lineup thanks to injuries to Dunleavy and Granger. The Pacers need his scoring now, and he’s responded with 40 points, 3 threes, 3 steals, and 2 blocks in his last 2 games. As long as both those guys are out, Daniels will play nearly 40 minutes per game, making him a must-own player until Granger returns.

Use With Caution

Andres Nocioni (Kings)

In his Kings debut, Nocioni shot just 2 for 11 from the field, but played 30 minutes and had 7 boards and 3 assists. If he continues to get 30 minutes of action off the bench, he’ll definitely be worth owning. Noce can get hot from outside and pull down his share of boards, so give him a look if you need help in those cats.

Francisco Elson (Bucks)

Elson has been starting at center for the Bucks in place of Bogut and in his last 4 games, he’s averaging a respectable 7.5 points, 6.3 boards, 1.5 steals, and 1.8 blocks in 27 minutes. His upside is extremely limited, but if you need a center to fill-in for you, Elson isn’t as bad as other options out there.

Von Wafer (Rockets)

Wafer scored just 3 points on 1 for 7 shooting in 16 minutes on Friday, but he had 19 points and 4 treys in the game before and 13 points and 3 treys in the game after. He’s yet to play 30+ minutes recently, but with T-Mac out Houston will need as much of his scoring punch as they can get. He’s not the most reliable option right now, but the upside is there.

Luke Walton (Lakers)

Walton has earned more minutes recently and he’s putting up decent all-around stats, accumulating 27 points, 16 boards, 15 assists, 4 threes, and 2 steals in his last 3 games. His primary value comes from his passing abilities, but if he can continue to make threes on a consistent basis he could be a solid option in deeper leagues. I added him on 1 of my teams and I’m going to roll the dice this week because the Lakers play the Suns twice, the Thunder, and the Nuggets.

Chris Wilcox (Knicks)

Wilcox played just 10 minutes in his debut for the Knicks, but still managed to score 5 points and grab 5 boards. He’ll likely be eased into the rotation, but if he can manage to play well and earn 25+ minutes per game he could put up solid stats. New York’s fast pace allows for a lot of shots and rebound opportunities, and Wilcox should get several easy buckets just from running the floor. Don’t start him yet, but watch to see if he can bust loose.

Atlanta Hawks (4 games)

Josh Smith has 6 blocks in his last 2 games, but his rebound numbers have been very poor recently. Horford had a monster 18 point, 18 rebound, 4 assist, 2 block game vs. the Kings last Wednesday, and he should be a safe start the rest of the way. Ronald Murray returned from a 2-game absence to score 17 points in just 23 minutes on Friday, but he’s a risky play due to Atlanta’s tough schedule: road games at Utah and Denver and home games vs. the Heat and Cavs.

START: J. Johnson, J-Smoov, Bibby, Horford
BORDERLINE: M. Williams, Murray

Boston Celtics (4 games)

The Celtics suffered a double whammy on Thursday, losing to the Jazz by 5 and losing KG for 2-3 weeks. Look for everyone else to step now, especially Kendrick Perkins, Pierce, Davis and Powe. Scalabrine started their last game and Glenn Davis played more minutes, but I think that Leon Powe has the best chance of having value. Perkins is averaging 8.5 boards and 1.8 blocks on 63% shooting in February, so hopefully you picked him up after I named him my #2 pickup for week 15. I thought that Eddie House would get more minutes with Tony Allen out for the next 2 months, but it hasn’t happened yet.

START: Pierce, R. Allen, Rondo, Perkins
BENCH: Garnett
WATCH: Powe, House

Charlotte Bobcats (4 games)

Gerald Wallace has shot the ball poorly since returning from injury, but the rest of his stats have been solid. Felton is averaging 15.5 points, 7.3 dimes, 2.5 steals, .8 blocks, and a whopping 41 minutes in February, but his FG% still sucks. Augustin & Radmanovic have been playing fewer minutes since Bell & Wallace returned, but both are worth consideration this week since the Bobcats have my #1 most favorable schedule: a West Coast road trip with games against the Suns, Kings, Warriors, and Clippers.

START: G. Wallace, Okafor, Diaw, Felton, R. Bell
BORDERLINE: Augustin, Radmanovic

Chicago Bulls (4 games)

Chicago has won 7 of their last 10 games, and it looks like they’re ready to make a strong playoff push. Ben Gordon has scored 141 points, made 37 of 42 free throws, and nailed 12 treys in his last 5 games, but he could lose some minutes to newcomer John Salmons. Tyrus Thomas is averagaing a sweet 17.8 points, 9.2 boards, 1.8 steals, and 1.8 blocks in his last 5 games, so make sure you’re starting him. Brad Miller is a Chicago Bull once again, which means to bench Joakim Noah and look for a replacement.

START: D. Rose, B. Gordon, Deng, Ty Thomas, B. Miller
BORDERLINE: Salmons, Hinrich
BENCH: Noah

Cleveland Cavaliers (4 games)

LeBron went off for 55 points and 8 treys on Friday, and he could have hit 60 if he hadn’t missed 7 freebies. Big Z said his ankle is still bothering him, so start him and hope for the best. Delonte West returned on Sunday to score 25 points and make all 5 of his threes, so get him back in your lineup ASAP and pick him up if he’s available. Gibson and Wally can safely be dropped now. Will Cleveland’s unwillingness to make a trade before the deadline prevent them from winning a championship?

START: LeBron, Mo Williams, Big Z, D. West
DROP: Gibson, Wally

Dallas Mavericks (4 games)

Josh Howard has scored 20+ points in 4 of his last 5 games, and he’s also recorded at least 1 trey and 1 steal in each of those games. Barea is starting to play well again, making him a solid option. Bass continues to post solid stats in limites minutes off the bench, so start him if you have been.

START: Dirk, Kidd, J. Howard, Barea
BORDERLINE: Bass, Dampier
BENCH: Terry

Denver Nuggets (4 games)

Carmelo is shooting just 37% from the field in his last 5 games, so hopefully he’ll snap out of it this week. What’s going on with Denver’s big men? Nene and K-Mart have COMBINED to average just 10.4 boards in their last 5 games. Martin is ailing and Nene could be wearing down. JR Smith’s playing time has been very limited in recent weeks, so he’s a very risky start right now.

START: Billups, Anthony, Nene
BORDERLINE: K-Mart, JR Smith, Andersen

Detroit Pistons (4 games)

Detroit has lost 5 games in a row and they have 4 killer road games this week, so start your Pistons with caution. Iverson is playing a little better these days, but his team is still losing. Antonio McDyess has also really stepped his game up, averaging 11.4 points, 11.4 rebounds, and .8 blocks on 63% FG shooting in his last 5 games. Stuckey is slumping right now and has to face Wade, Paul, and Rondo this week, so I recommend benching him.

START: Iverson, R. Wallace, McDyess
BORDERLINE: Prince, Hamilton
BENCH: Stuckey

Golden St. Warriors (3 games)

Golden State scored 133 points on Saturday for their 20th win of the season and Don Nelson’s 1,300th win of his career. Stephen Jackson is on fire, averaging 25 points, 6 boards, 8.4 dimes, 2.6 threes, 1.6 steals, and .8 blocks in 43.2 minutes over his last 5. Maggette continues to come off the bench, but he’s still scored 24+ points in 5 of his last 6 games. Monta had 5 steals on Saturday and 10 in his last 3 games, which is a good sign that his lateral quickness is coming back to full strength. Turiaf has been superb lately, but I’m guessing that Biedrins will return this week. I’m going to their game Monday night at Staples against the Clippers, so hopefully they can get win #1301 for Nellie.

START: S. Jackson, Ellis, Maggette, Crawford
BORDERLINE: Biedrins, Turiaf
BENCH: Azubuike

Houston Rockets (4 games)

Houston moved Rafer Alston for Kyle Lowry before the deadline, and they seem to be very happy about it. With T-Mac likely out for the year, keep an eye on both Wafer and Lowry. Aaron Brooks is a must-start now, and Shane Battier should also see a spike in value. McGrady has another round of medical examinations scheduled for Sunday, so wait for the results before dropping him.

START: Yao, Artest, Brooks, Scola, Battier
BENCH: T-Mac
WATCH: Wafer, Lowry

Indiana Pacers (4 games)

With Mike Dunleavy “out indefinitely” and Danny Granger out 3 weeks with a foot injury, Indiana is really hurting right now. Marquis Daniels is going to play major minutes now, and Brandon Rush could also have value off the bench. Troy Murphy’s magical “career year” continues, as he’s averaging a ridiculous 18 points, 11.8 boards, 2.4 assists, and 2.7 threes on 53% FG shooting in February.

START: Murphy, Ford, Jack, Daniels
BORDERLINE: B. Rush
BENCH: Granger, Dunleavy, Foster

L.A. Clippers (4 games)

Last week was a waste for Zach Randolph owners, so he better come back strong. Camby has been out with an ear infection and should return soon, but you never know with the plastic man. DeAndre Jordan had a very solid game in his absence on Sunday, but he won’t have any long-term value. Al Thornton also missed Sunday’s game with a foot injury, making him a risky play for week 18.

START: B. Davis, Z. Randolph, E. Gordon
BORDERLINE: Camby, R. Davis, Thornton
BENCH: Kaman

L.A. Lakers (4 games)

With games against the Suns (x2), Thunder, and Nuggets this week, expect a lot of scoring from the Lakers. Fresh off a 39-point game vs. the Hornets, don’t be surprised if Kobe drops 40 or 50 on someone this week. Lamar Odom has been a rebounding machine lately, pulling down 17+ boards in 5 of his last 6 games. Luke Walton has been playing pretty well recently, so keep an eye on him in deeper leagues (especially if you need assists).

START: Kobe, P. Gasol, Odom
BORDERLINE: Fisher
BENCH: Bynum, Ariza
WATCH: Walton

Memphis Grizzlies (3 games)

Memphis has lost 4 games in a row and they go on the road to face Cleveland on Tuesday. Did you know that Rudy Gay will have to make 79 threes in his last 30 games to match last year’s total of 134? Mike Conley Jr. is playing much better recently, averaging 15 points, 6.4 assists, 5.8 rebounds, and 1.2 steals in his last 5 games. Now that Lowry is out of the picture he should be a solid starter the rest of the way. Despite playing limited minutes, Darko has been fairly solid recently. The same can’t be said for Warrick, who has totaled just 19 points in his last 3 games.

START: Gay, Mayo, Conley
BORDERLINE: M. Gasol, Darko
BENCH: Warrick

Miami Heat (3 games)

The Heat beat Philly on Sunday and seem to be starting to gel. Jermaine O’Neal went for 17 points and 10 boards and Jamario Moon had a solid game off the bench. Wade has made 27 of his last 28 free throws and blocked 6 shots in his last 3 games, suggesting that he’s not going to slow down. Unfortunately, Beasley still can’t be trusted and Cook isn’t getting enough minutes to be a reliable option, so I suggest dropping the latter.

START: Wade, J. O’Neal
BORDERLINE: Haslem, Chalmers
BENCH: Beasley, Moon
DROP: Cook

Milwaukee Bucks (3 games)

Luke Ridnour returned much sooner than expected on Friday to drop 6 dimes in 33 minutes. I don’t suggest starting him yet, but his return limits Ramon Sessions’ value (just 2 dimes in 22 minutes on Friday) and makes Charlie Bell expendable. Charlie V is still playing great, so start him with confidence. Elson hasn’t been that bad, so consider starting him if you’re desperate for a center.

START: R. Jefferson, Villanueva, Sessions
BORDERLINE: Elson
BENCH: Bogut, Ridnour, Mbah a Moute
DROP: C. Bell

Minnesota Timberwolves (4 games)

Minnesota looks very different than they did 2 weeks ago, as Shelden Williams & Bobby Brown have replaced Al Jefferson & Rashad McCants. Mike Miller’s stats have been much better since Big Al went down, as he’s averaging 13.8 points, 7 boards, 6.3 dimes, and 1.8 threes in his last 4 contests. Kevin Love has also stepped up big time, averaging 13 points and 10.6 boards in his last 5. Gomes has quietly been rock solid, averaging 19.8 points and 2.4 threes in his last 5 games. Telfair followed up a 30 point, 6 trey game on Wednesday with just 5 points on Friday, so he still can’t be trusted.

START: Foye, Love, M. Miller, Gomes
BORDERLINE: Telfair
DROP: A. Jefferson

New Jersey Nets (3 games)

The Nets didn’t move Vince Carter, but they’ve lost 5 games in a row and better right the ship soon. Devin Harris had been struggling with his shot, but his 26 point, 10 assist game on Friday may get him going. Did you know that Brook Lopez has scored 15+ points in 9 of his last 10 games? Yi Jianlian & Bobby Simmons are back from injury, which means that Ryan Anderson is no longer worth owning. Jarvis Hayes is out with a hand injury, so keep an eye on Simmons.

START: Harris, V. Carter, B. Lopez
BENCH: Jianlian, B. Simmons
DROP: R. Anderson

New Orleans Hornets (4 games)

It sounds like Tyson Chandler is ready to return, and hopefully he’ll use the trade that didn’t happen as motivation to step up his game. Rasual Butler has been fantastic recently, averaging 19.8 points, 5 boards, 1.5 blocks, 1 steal, and 3.5 treys in his last 4 games. You may as well start him and hope that he can keep it going. Peja on the other hand is just 7-30 from beyond the arc over his last 5 games, but if you need threes you’ve got to stick with him. James Posey has been very quiet recently, so leave him on your bench.

START: Paul, D. West, Stojakovic, R. Butler
BORDERLINE: T. Chandler
BENCH: Posey

New York Knicks (4 games)

David Lee has been a scoring machine in February, averaging 20.3 points and 14.3 field goal attempts per game, to go along with his huge rebound numbers and excellent shooting %’s. Al Harrington & Lil Nate have also been excellent lately. Wilson Chandler followed up a 32 point, 6 trey game on Friday with a 2 point dud on Sunday, making him a borderline start for the week ahead. The additions of Wilcox & Hughes make Q-Rich expendable, so keep an eye on the newcomers.

START: D. Lee, Duhon, Harrington, N. Robinson
BORDERLINE: W. Chandler
WATCH: Wilcox, Hughes
DROP: Q-Rich

Oklahoma City Thunder (3 games)

The Thunder have given up 273 points to their last 2 opponents (the Suns & Warriors), but at least they’re a fun team to watch. Monster statlines have become a sure thing from Durant and a common occurence for Green & Westbrook. Rookie Kyle Weaver exploded for 19 points and 2 steals on Saturday, and it will be interesting to see if he can hold off Sefolosha for more minutes. Krstic had a dud on Saturday but he’s started the last 2 games, making both he and Collison risky plays with only 3 games.

START: Durant, Green, Westbrook
BENCH: Krstic, Collison, E. Watson, Weaver
WATCH: Sefolosha

Orlando Magic (4 games)

Rafer Alston started his first game for Orlando on Sunday, scoring 12 points and dishing out 9 assists to go with 2 treys in 29 minutes. He’ll start playing 30+ minutes soon and should be an improved option the rest of the way. Courtney Lee is also starting now with Pietrus out with another wrist injury. Feel free to drop Pietrus if better options are available, but Lee is still a risky play.

START: D. Howard, Lewis, Turkoglu, Alston
BORDERLINE: C. Lee
BENCH: J. Nelson
DROP: Pietrus

Philadelphia 76ers (4 games)

Philly has fallen to .500 after 3 straight losses. Andre Miller kept his consectuive games played streak alive by dropping 30 points and 9 boards on Miami, and Louis Williams is averaging 18 points in his last 3 games. Dalembert has been hampered by foul trouble recently, but remains a decent #2 center option. Speights may or may not be worth hanging onto depending on the size of your league.

START: Iguodala, A. Miller, T. Young, Dalembert
BORDERLINE: L. Williams
BENCH: Speights

Phoenix Suns (4 games)

The Suns streak of 3 straight 140+ point games was extremely impressive and fantasy owners have to be loving Alvin Gentry right now. The news of Amare Stoudemire potentially missing the year is a huge shocker. The only team I have him on is in the 82games “Draft Only” league where you make no pickups, so it’s going to be a big test to see if my team can stay in 1st. On Sunday the Suns were brought back to reality by the Celtics, who beat them by 20. Phoenix has been starting a smallball lineup with Grant Hill at power forward, but I believe that Matt Barnes will soon start playing more at that position. On Sunday Barnes played 26 minutes while Dudley got 22, Amundson got 12, and Robin Lopez just 2. I’m not sure why Lopez isn’t getting more run, but pick up Barnes and keep an eye on Dudley just in case.

START: Nash, Shaq, J-Rich, Barbosa, Barnes
BORDERLINE: Hill
BENCH/ IR: Stoudemire
WATCH: Dudley

Portland Trail Blazers (4 games)

Steve Blake proved that he was back by dropping 17 dimes and nailing 2 treys in just 26 minutes against the Clippers on Sunday. It looks safe to start him again. Przybilla has been starting in place of the injured Oden, so consider him only if you need boards. If you drafted Oden and still have him on your team I admire your sticktoitiveness, but he’s surely done more harm than good for your squad.

START: Roy, Aldridge, Blake
BORDERLINE: Outlaw, Fernandez, Przybilla
BENCH: Oden

Sacramento Kings (4 games)

The new-look Kings are younger and dare I say more exciting. Udrih has surprisingly posted 3 straight 18 point games while dishing out 17 dimes, grabbing 3 steals, and nailing 3 treys, so start him while he’s hot. Jason Thompson played just 19 minutes on Saturday, while Nocioni played 30 and rookie Donte Greene played 21 off the bench. This makes Thompson a risky start this week and Greene a player to watch. Spencer Hawes is going to be an excellent option the rest of the way.

START: Kev-Mart, Hawes, Garcia, Udrih
BORDERLINE: Thompson, Nocioni
BENCH: Gooden
WATCH: Greene

San Antonio Spurs (4 games)

Example #4080 of Greg Popovich’s coaching skills: with Ginobili out and Tony Parker & Tim Duncan combining for just 50 minutes and 21 points, the Spurs still stomped on the Wizards 98-67. Pop knows how to win, period. Roger Mason burned his former team for 25 points, 5 assists, and 5 treys, and he should have plenty of big games with Ginobili out. Finley had 19 points and 5 treys on Saturday, but you can’t trust him to repeat those numbers. San Antonio has a tough schedule this week, so keep those borderline options on the bench.

START: Duncan, T. Parker, R. Mason
BENCH: Ginobili, Bonner, Finley

Toronto Raptors (3 games)

Of the 8 teams that play 3 games this week, Toronto has the best schedule. They visit Phoenix on Friday, so look for Shawn Marion to have a big game against his old team. The Matrix has racked up 30 points and 27 rebounds in his last 2 games, and he should be a rock solid option the rest of the way. With J. O’Neal out of the picture, Bargnani exploded for 46 points, 16 boards, 7 blocks, and 4 treys in 2 games vs. the Knicks, making him a must-start the rest of the way. Bosh has been kinda rusty since returning from injury, but he should be better this week. Parker bounced back from a donut with 24 points on Sunday, but he’s a risky play with just 3 games.

START: Bosh, Calderon, Bargnani, Marion
BORDERLINE: A. Parker
BENCH: Kapono

Utah Jazz (4 games)

Utah has a juicy schedule this week, so start pretty much all of them. Okur is draining threes lately and is playing great, but AK-47 has been rather quiet since returning from injury. His minutes should start increasing, so I say start him. Millsap has also been pretty quiet lately, but expect at least 2 big games this week against the T-Wolves, Kings, and Warriors. The Jazz have won 4 in a row and are going to get a huge boost soon from Carlos Boozer. Booze is expected to play on Monday, so feel free to roll the dice.

START: D. Williams, Okur, Kirilenko, Millsap, R. Brewer
BORDERLINE: Boozer

Washington Wizards (3 games)

Washington got crushed by 31 points on Sunday, and Butler & Jamison are the only safe options with 3 games this week. McGuire has 27 boards and 6 blocks in his last 3 games, so don’t ignore him if you need help in those cats. James, Young, and McGee have been terrible lately, so feel free to drop all of them. Songaila has racked up 37 points and 4 blocks in his last 3 games, but his upside remains low and he should only be considered in super deep leagues.

START: C. Butler, Jamison
BENCH: Arenas, McGuire, Blatche
DROP: M. James, N. Young, McGee
WATCH: Songaila

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