Evil’s Outlook – Week 20

One has missed 48 games this season. The other hasn’t been a reliable fantasy starter for several years. However, Kaman and B-Jax are two of my top pickups this week.

Evil’s Outlook goes around the league and examines which players are hot and cold and which players you should keep an eye on. Listed first are the # of games played for each team, followed by 5 teams with poor and favorable schedules.

After that are 5 Top Pickups and 4 more players to consider, followed by analysis for all 30 teams. The outlook for week 20 suggests 112 players who are safe starts and 43 who are borderline, so adjust accordingly if your league is much smaller or larger.

4 games: ATL, CHI, CLE, DAL, DET, HOU, LAL, MIA, MIN, NO, NY, ORL, PHO, POR, UTA, WAS
3 games: BOS, CHA, DEN, GS, IND, LAC, MEM, MIL, NJ, OKC, PHI, SAC, SA, TOR

5 Poor Schedules

1. Memphis Grizzlies (3 games – @Minnesota, @Boston, @Detroit)
2. San Antonio Spurs (3 games – Charlotte, LA Lakers, @Houston)
3. Los Angeles Clippers (3 games – Cleveland, @Denver, New Jersey)
4. Los Angeles Lakers (4 games – @Portland, @Houston, @San Antonio, Dallas)
5. Chicago Bulls (4 games – @Miami, @Orlando, @Philadelphia, New Orleans)

5 Favorable Schedules

1. Cleveland Cavaliers (4 games – @LA Clippers, @Philadelphia, @Sacramento, New York)
2. Minnesota Timberwolves (4 games – Washington, Memphis, New York, Charlotte)
3. Dallas Mavericks (4 games – @Phoenix, @Portland, @Golden State, @LA Lakers)
4. Phoenix Suns (4 games – Dallas, Cleveland, Oklahoma City, @Golden State)
5. New Jersey Nets (3 games – @Golden State, @Portland, @LA Clippers)

Top Pickups

1. JR Smith (Nuggets)

Once again, it’s been a season full of peaks and valleys for JR Smith. After averaging just 11.8 points and 26.4 minutes in February, he was likely dropped in many leagues. If so, you should consider picking him up ASAP. The talented guard was moved back into the starting lineup on Thursday, and this time it could be permanent. Smith is averaging 19.8 points, 5 boards, 3.3 assists, and 1.8 threes in 35.8 minutes over his last 4 games, and he’s gone to the line an impressive 21 times over the last 2 games. The only reason Jones was starting ahead of him before was due to Dahntay’s defense, but George Karl actually praised JR’s defensive intensity recently, and now he’s being rewarded. The door to the doghouse is always open, but this time I think he might stay indoors.

2. Chris Kaman (Clippers)

After missing 48 games due to plantar fasciitis in his left foot, it sounds like Kaman is set to return to action. He was averaging 14.4 points, 10 rebounds, and 1.9 blocks in 37.2 minutes before getting injured, so pick him up if you need center help. The obvious concern is that Kaman put those numbers up while Camby wasn’t 100% healthy and before Zach Randolph joined the team, so there’s no telling what’s going to happen when all 3 players are healthy. But on the flipside, those other 2 guys haven’t exactly been ironmen. Marcus Camby is one of the only players in the league who routinely misses games due to headaches and earaches, and Randolph has missed his share of games for personal and health reasons as well. Don’t expect 15, 10, and 2 every night, but the upside is there.

3. Bobby Jackson (Kings)

Over the past few days, I’ve picked him up Bobby Jackson in 4 of my 5 leagues, so either I’m too high on him or everyone else is sleeping. He was recently moved into Sacramento’s starting lineup with Beno Udrih injured, and he’s responded by averaging 13.5 points, 4.8 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 2 steals, and 1.5 treys in 33.8 minutes over his last 4 games. Obviously the veteran can still play, and with coach Kenny Natt looking for defensive intensity, I’m expecting him to lean heavily on Jackson to lead by example. MRI results on Udrih’s sprained foot have yet to be released, but this article in Wednesday’s Sacramento Bee painted a grim picture: “Usually, when I wake up in the morning, it just hurts. I can’t really walk normal.” So he can’t walk normal, he’s yet to practice, and he’s not known for his defensive prowess. Do YOU think Beno is going to be playing 30+ minutes anytime soon? I don’t, which is why I’m naming B-Jax my #3 top pickup for the week.

4. Andres Nocioni (Kings)

Nocioni received his 1st start for Sacramento on Sunday, and he responded with 23 points, 5 rebounds, and 3 threes in 38 minutes. Since Francisco Garcia is dealing with a broken finger, he came off the bench and played 32 minutes. Many are going to assume that Garcia will get his starting spot back soon, but I’m not so sure. The Kings won on Sunday with Andres, and coach Natt is looking for his guys to play with more passion. Nocioni knows how to hustle and he doesn’t back down from anyone, so it wouldn’t surprise me if he stays in the starting lineup. His stats prior to Sunday weren’t that special, so he’s still available in many leagues. Consider picking him up if you need a forward.

5. Carl Landry (Rockets)

Landry returned to action recently, and he’s averaged a respectable 12.8 points, 4 rebounds, 1.6 steals, and 1.6 blocks in 25.4 minutes over his last 5 games. Those aren’t eye-popping numbers, but his real value lies in his accurate shooting: 22-29 from the field and 20-24 from the line over the same time span. For the season, he’s now shooting a sparkling 57.2% FG and 83.6% FT. That makes him the ONLY player in the league shooting over 55% from the field and over 80% from the line, which has to count for something.

Use With Caution

Anthony Randolph (Warriors)

His minutes have been sporadic, but Anthony Randolph is starting to show fantasy owners what he’s capable of. In his last 5 games, the 19-year old is averaging 10 points, 7.8 boards, and 2.4 blocks in just 25 minutes. Believe it or not, his best performances came against Utah and Detroit, so it wasn’t like he was padding his stats against the Knicks and Wizards. Of course he’s still a risky play due to Don Nelson’s quirky rotation, but if anyone is going to see an increase in minutes down the stretch, it’s going to be the talented rookie.

Marco Belinelli (Warriors)

Much like Randolph, Belinelli is slowly starting to earn more minutes. Over his last 4 games, he’s averaging 11.5 points, 2.3 assists, and 1.8 threes in just 26.5 minutes. Those numbers aren’t great, but he proved earlier in the season that he could be a solid fantasy starter if he got 30+ minutes. Now is the best time for the Warriors to evaluate Marco’s current level of play and future ceiling, so it wouldn’t surprise me if his playing time continues to rise.

Danilo Gallinari (Knicks)

The Knicks dropped 2 more games over the weekend and have fallen to 13th place in the Eastern Conference. Does that mean the Gallinari era has officially started? Over his last 3 games, the rookie is averaging 12.7 points and 3 treys in 21 minutes off the bench. Meanwhile, Mike D’Antoni recently said that minutes for Quentin Richardson will be “hard to come by” the rest of the way. Obviously, this supports the notion that NY wants to give Danilo more playing time. Don’t expect too much, but if you need threes he’s worth picking up.

Darrell Arthur (Grizzlies)

The rookie out of Kansas is starting again for Memphis, and I’m assuming more minutes will be coming his way down the stretch. He’s averaging 21.4 minutes, 8.4 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 1 block over his last 5 games, which means he could put up solid numbers if he starts getting more playing time. If you’re in a deep league and need some boards, give him a look.

Atlanta Hawks (4 games)

After arguing with his coach and playing just 22 minutes on Friday, Josh Smith erupted for one of his best games of the year on Saturday (19 points, 12 boards, and 4 blocks). Is this a sign that he’s ready to end the season strong? On the flipside, Marvin Williams hurt his back and played just 26 minutes on Saturday, so check his status before starting him. Al Horford has been rock solid recently, averaging 15.8 points, 10 boards, and 1.4 blocks in his last 5 games.

START: J. Johnson, J-Smoov, Bibby, Horford
BORDERLINE: M. Williams, Murray

Boston Celtics (3 games)

Rajon Rondo has been rock solid this season, but he sat out Sunday’s game with an ankle injury and Boston might rest him longer. Check on his status before finalizing your lineup this week. Marbury started in his place, but he had just 4 points and 0 assists in 21 minutes. Perkins has racked up 46 boards and 9 blocks in his last 5 games, so start him this week with Garnett still out. Speaking of KG, hopefully this is the last week you have to keep him on your bench.

START: Pierce, R. Allen, Perkins
BORDERLINE: Rondo
BENCH: Garnett
WATCH: Powe, House, Marbury

Charlotte Bobcats (3 games)

Surprisingly, Charlotte has won 6 games in a row and is just 1 game behind Chicago for the 8th spot in the East. Gerald Wallace has finally picked up his play, going for 44 points, 20 rebounds, 3 steals, and 3 threes in his last 2 games. Felton is also hot, averaging 17.8 points and 9 dimes on 54% FG shooting in his last 5. With just 3 games this week, DJ and Vlad should be benched.

START: G. Wallace, Okafor, Diaw, Felton, R. Bell
BENCH: Augustin, Radmanovic

Chicago Bulls (4 games)

One of the biggest post-trade surprises has been Joakim Noah putting up excellent stats despite the addition of Brad Miller. At this point, Noah, Miller, AND Tyrus Thomas are also solid starters. Deng has missed 3 games in a row, so make sure he’s on your bench. Salmons has put up stellar stats in his absence, altho he’s made just 3 of his last 16 shots from behind the arc.

START: D. Rose, B. Gordon, Salmons, Ty Thomas, B. Miller, Noah
BORDERLINE: Hinrich
BENCH: Deng

Cleveland Cavaliers (4 games)

Cleveland plays the 76ers, Clippers, Kings, and Knicks this week (the latter 3 are near the bottom in points allowed), so start your Cavs this week. LeBron is just 10-30 in his last 2 games, so expect him to bounce back this week. With 24 dimes and 13 steals in his last 4 games, Delonte West is suddenly an excellent option again. Varejao is averaging a respectable 9.2 points, 6.4 boards, and 1.6 steals in his last 5 games, but keep an eye on Joe Smith stealing some of his playing time away.

START: LeBron, Mo Williams, Big Z, D. West, Varejao
WATCH: J. Smith

Dallas Mavericks (4 games)

Just when Josh Howard was getting back in my good graces, his ankle acted up again. He’s seeing a specialist on Monday to find out more, so I recommend benching him for the week ahead. Of course, this is great news for Jason Terry owners, as The Jet went off for 33 points and 5 treys on Saturday with Howard out of the lineup. Singleton’s playing time has plummeted recently, so feel free to drop him and Barea.

START: Dirk, Kidd, Terry
BORDERLINE: A. Wright, Bass, Dampier
BENCH: J. Howard
DROP: Barea, Singleton

Denver Nuggets (3 games)

Anthony returned from a 1 game suspension to score 90 points in 3 games, so hopefully he’s ready to lead Denver to a strong finish. JR Smith is starting again, so he looks like a safe start now. The same can’t be said for Kenyon Martin, who is dealing with a bad back and simply can’t be trusted. He should rebound eventually, but if better options are available, feel free to drop him. As long as he’s out, Chris Andersen remains a decent play in deep leagues.

START: Billups, Anthony, Nene, JR Smith
BORDERLINE: Andersen
BENCH: K-Mart

Detroit Pistons (4 games)

If you needed further proof of Allen Iverson’s negative impact on Detroit, consider that his team has won 4 of its last 5 games since AI went down with his back injury. Stuckey and Rip Hamilton have have seen their stats soar since, and both are must-start players once again. However, Iverson thinks he can return soon, so I don’t suggest dropping him.

START: Stuckey, Hamilton, Prince, R. Wallace, McDyess
BENCH: Iverson

Golden St. Warriors (3 games)

What has gone wrong with my beloved Warriors? The team has dropped 6 of their last 7 games, and Don Nelson isn’t making many people happy these days. Despite his plans to “evict” Jamal Crawford, the guard has scored 57 points and made 7 treys in his last 2 games. Biedrins has missed 2 games in a row for personal reasons, but I like his chances of returning this week since Golden State has returned for a homestand. With just 3 games this week and anyone liable to be benched, there aren’t many safe plays in Oakland these days.

START: S. Jackson, Biedrins
BORDERLINE: Maggette, Crawford, Turiaf, A. Randolph, Belinelli
BENCH: Ellis, Azubuike

Houston Rockets (4 games)

You might assume that Yao is starting to wear down, but he’s racked up 59 boards and 17 blocks in his last 5 games. Scola has also been a double-double machine, and he doesn’t get nearly the credit he deserves from most fans. Artest continues to be rock solid with T-Mac out, and he’s even shooting over 52% from the field in his last 5! As I mentioned above, Carl Landry is worth a look in deeper leagues.

START: Yao, Artest, Brooks, Scola
BORDERLINE: Battier, Landry
WATCH: Wafer, Lowry

Indiana Pacers (3 games)

You know Troy Murphy is having a career year when 11 points, 13 boards, 2 threes, and a block is considered an off night. Danny Granger might return this week, but you should weigh your options carefully. Dunleavy had season-ending surgery last week, so Jack will be a solid starter the rest of the way. Keep an eye on the rookie Hibbert in case the Pacers fall out of playoff contention.

START: Murphy, Ford, Jack
BORDERLINE: Daniels, Granger
BENCH: Foster, B. Rush
DROP: Dunleavy
WATCH: Hibbert

L.A. Clippers (3 games)

Eric Gordon (35 points, 6 assists, 5 treys) returned to action in a big way on Saturday, so he should be safe start for the week ahead. The same can’t be said for Baron and Camby, who both missed the game and are questionable. Zach Randolph also returned after his ailing father passed away, but he expects to miss Saturday’s game at Denver for the funeral, which would give him just 2 games this week. Chris Kaman is supposed to return on Tuesday, but starting him right away would be a very risky move. Mike Taylor has been playing well lately, and in case you missed it, he threw down one of the sickest dunks of the season on Wednesday. And here’s another sweet practice dunk.

START: E. Gordon, Thornton
BORDERLINE: B. Davis, Camby, Z. Randolph, Kaman
BENCH: R. Davis
WATCH: M. Taylor

L.A. Lakers (4 games)

The Lakers start the week with 3 killer road games at Portland, Houston, and San Antonio, so don’t expect monster numbers from Kobe and company. Odom has totaled just 8 points on 4-for-15 shooting in his last 3 games, but he should bounce back soon. If you have an extra roster spot and Bynum was dropped, consider picking him up in case he returns.

START: Kobe, P. Gasol, Odom
BORDERLINE: Fisher
BENCH: Bynum, Ariza
WATCH: Walton

Memphis Grizzlies (3 games)

Don’t look now, but Marc Gasol and Mike Conley are suddenly the 2 best fantasy players in Memphis. Over his last 4 games, the younger Gasol is averaging an impressive 21.3 points, 9.8 boards, 4 assists, and 2.8 rejections (that’s basically Pau plus more blocks)! Meanwhile, Conley exploded for 31 points and 9 dimes on Saturday. Gay and Mayo are still solid starters, but they’re no longer carrying Memphis. Arthur grabbed 12 boards on Sunday, but I don’t suggest starting him yet. With 3 games on the road at Minnesota, Boston, and Detroit, Memphis has my toughest schedule for week 20.

START: Gay, Mayo, Conley, M. Gasol
BENCH: Warrick, Arthur

Miami Heat (4 games)

Dwyane Wade shot just 9-for-23 from the field and was ejected for the 1st time in his career on Saturday, but he’s still averaging a ridiculous 35.3 points, 10.7 assists, 2.7 steals, 1.2 blocks, and 1.6 threes on 55.9% FG shooting over his last 10 games!!! Beasley has racked up 57 points and 19 boards in his last 3 contests, so feel free to roll the dice. Jamario Moon isn’t putting up any eye-popping stats, but he’s getting plenty of playing time and is worth consideration in deeper leagues. Daequan Cook dropped 27 points and 6 treys on Phoenix last week, but with the Heat recently signing Luther Head, there’s even more competition for minutes.

START: Wade, J. O’Neal, Haslem, Chalmers
BORDERLINE: Beasley, Moon
WATCH: Cook, Head

Milwaukee Bucks (3 games)

R-Jeff dropped a season-high 35 points on Saturday, and he’s averaging 26.6 points over his last 5 games. Villanueva is shooting just 39% over his last 4 games, so hopefully he snaps out of his funk this week. Ramon Sessions isn’t getting tons of playing time due to Ridnour, but he’s still managed to average 15.2 points and 7.8 assists in 31.2 minutes over his last 5. Mbah a Moute is hot again, but I only suggest starting him if you need boards and steals.

START: R. Jefferson, Villanueva, Sessions
BORDERLINE: Mbah a Moute
BENCH: Bogut, Ridnour, Elson

Minnesota Timberwolves (4 games)

Minnesota gets to stay home all week long, and they should score plenty of points with contests against the Wizards, Grizzlies, Knicks, and Bobcats. Did you know that Ryan Gomes has scored 20+ points in 7 of his last 10 games? Unfortunately, Mike Miller is still reluctant to jack up shots, but he’s doing plenty else to help out fantasy teams. After missing 2 games with a groin injury, Telfair is back and playing well, so feel free to start him this week.

START: Foye, Love, M. Miller, Gomes, Telfair

New Jersey Nets (3 games)

The Nets have 3 road games this week, but starting against the Warriors and finishing against the Clippers isn’t bad at all. Devin Harris continues to roll, averaging 29 points, 9.9 dimes, and 2 steals over his last 8 games. Vince Carter has been up and down lately, but he’s made 8 treys in his last 3 games and is still a must-start player. Sean Williams blocked 4 shots in just 19 minutes on Sunday, so keep an eye on him if you need a leather-slapper (see the Shawn Bradley card).

START: Harris, V. Carter, B. Lopez
BENCH: Jianlian, B. Simmons
WATCH: S. Williams

New Orleans Hornets (4 games)

Peja has missed 2 games in a row with back spasms, but he could return this week. Julian Wright replaced him in the lineup and went for 20 points, 7 boards, 4 assists, 1 steal, 1 block, and 1 three in 34 minutes. Of course it was just the 2nd time all season that he’d played 24+ minutes, so you can’t get too excited about it. I’m not sure why it took them so long to get going, but David West has been a stud and Chandler is finally back to his solid self.

START: Paul, D. West, T. Chandler, R. Butler
BORDERLINE: Stojakovic, Posey
WATCH: J. Wright

New York Knicks (4 games)

The Knicks are just 7-22 on the road this year, and with 4 away games this week, that means they’re about to officially fall out of playoff contention. Just when it seemed like David Lee’s season couldn’t get any better, he set season highs with 7 assists and 5 steals on Sunday! D’Antoni might want to see how Gallinari and Wilson Chandler play together, which would hurt the minutes of Al Harrington (just 23 on Sunday). Chris Duhon’s stats have been way down recently, so consider benching him if you have better options.
START: D. Lee, Harrington, Hughes, N. Robinson, W. Chandler
BORDERLINE: Duhon, Gallinari

Oklahoma City Thunder (3 games)

The Thunder are being extra cautious with their young stars, as both Durant and Green have missed 4 games in a row. Durant is no longer wearing a protective boot and Green says his back is feeling fine, but both guys are risky plays for the week ahead. Sefolosha had been playing great, but he also missed a game with a knee injury and was sub-par on Sunday. With those guys ailing, Nenad Krstic has become a big-time scorer again, averaging 18 points, 6 rebounds, and a block over his last 4 contests.

START: Westbrook, Sefolosha, Krstic
BORDERLINE: Durant, Green, Collison
BENCH: E. Watson, Weaver

Orlando Magic (4 games)

Dwight Howard has made 18 of his last 20 free throws, but he’s still barely over 60% FT for the season. After a brief slump, Rashard Lewis appears to be back on track, averaging 19.6 points and 2.6 treys on 50% shooting over his last 5 games. Courtney Lee is still starting, but he’s totaled just 14 points in his last 3 games. Keep him on the bench and wait for Pietrus to get hurt again.

START: D. Howard, Lewis, Turkoglu, Alston
BENCH: C. Lee
WATCH: Pietrus

Philadelphia 76ers (3 games)

Andre Miller continues to get the job done, scoring 20+ points in his last 5 games while making 59% of his shots. Iguodala had just 9 points and 6 turnovers on Sunday, but he should bounce back no problem. If you need steals, Thad Young has picked up 9 of them in his last 4 games. Dalembert is struggling once again, so get him on your bench this week.

START: Iguodala, A. Miller
BORDERLINE: T. Young
BENCH: Dalembert, L. Williams, Speights

Phoenix Suns (4 games)

Phoenix has lost 4 in a row and are dangerously close to falling out of the playoff race. It’s tough to blame Steve Nash, who’s averaging 28 points, 11.3 dimes, and 2.3 treys in his last 3 games. Did you pickup Matt Barnes after I recommended him 2 weeks in a row? He’s made 16 treys in his last 5 games and is posting solid all-around stats, so start him with confidence. The Suns close out the week with games against the Thunder and Warriors, so expect lots of points all around.

START: Nash, Shaq, J-Rich, Barnes, Barbosa, Hill

Portland Trail Blazers (4 games)

The Blazers have won 4 of their last 5 games, with Brandon Roy averaging 25.2 points on 60% shooting from the field in those games. Travis Outlaw is also hot, averaging 16.7 points, 7 rebounds, 1 steal, and 1.3 blocks in his last 3 games. Greg Oden remains out, so Przybilla will continue to be a serviceable option at center.

START: Roy, Aldridge
BORDERLINE: Blake, Outlaw, Przybilla
BENCH: Oden, Fernandez

Sacramento Kings (3 games)

Sactown won their 14th game of the season on Sunday, and coach Kenny Natt has finally decided to hold his players accountable. Since Francisco Garcia is playing with a broken finger, he was replaced in the starting lineup by Nocioni on Sunday. Both guys played 32+ minutes and had solid lines, so consider starting both in deep leagues. With Udrih out (and no timetable for his return), B-Jax looks like a solid starter right now.

START: Kev-Mart, Hawes, Garcia, B. Jackson, Nocioni
BORDERLINE: Thompson
BENCH: Udrih

San Antonio Spurs (3 games)

The Spurs don’t have a great schedule this week, having to face the Bobcats, Lakers, and Rockets. As a result, Duncan and Parker are the only safe plays. Timmy had one of the worst games of his career on Friday, recording 9 turnovers + fouls compared to just 10 points + rebounds. However, he bounced back with 17 points, 15 boards, and 2 blocks on Sunday. Mason has been very up and down, so only start him if you need treys.

START: Duncan, T. Parker
BORDERLINE: Mason
BENCH: Ginobili, Bonner, Finley
WATCH: Gooden

Toronto Raptors (3 games)

Chris Bosh has been on a tear ever since Shaq called him “the RuPaul of big men,” averaging 29.3 points on 50% shooting from the field in his last 4 games. Of course, Toronto has also lost 5 in a row, so perhaps his contributions are overstated. After shooting over 50% from beyond the arc in both December and January, Calderon has missed his last 11 threes. New signee Pops Mensah-Bonsu had 7 boards, 4 fouls, and a block in just 11 minutes on Sunday, so perhaps he’s found a new home.

START: Bosh, Calderon, Bargnani, Marion
BORDERLINE: A. Parker
BENCH: Kapono

Utah Jazz (4 games)

Utah is riding an 11-game winning streak, and they could claim the #3 spot in the West before we know it. Deron Williams is still red-hot, and it looks like he’s ready to carry some fantasy teams down the stretch as well. Boozer missed Sunday’s game with a sprained ankle, but he’s expected to return on Tuesday. AK-47 owners wouldn’t mind if Boozer sat out longer, since his stats have suffered since Carlos returned. Kyle Korver has been stealing minutes away from CJ Miles, so keep an eye on him if you need threes.

START: D. Williams, Okur, Boozer, Kirilenko, R. Brewer
BORDERLINE: Millsap
WATCH: Korver

Washington Wizards (4 games)

With 5 straight losses, Washington’s terrible season continues. Caron Butler returned from a hamstring injury on Saturday to record 20 points, 9 boards, 2 steals, and 2 blocks. It looks safe to start him, but the Wizards could easily give him more rest down the stretch. His return also sends Blatche back to the bench, making him a risky start this week. Oddly enough, Dominic McGuire is averaging more assists (5.2) than points (5.0) over his last 5 games.

START: C. Butler, Jamison
BORDERLINE: McGuire, Blatche, Songaila
BENCH: Arenas
WATCH: M. James, Crittenton, McGee

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