Evil’s Outlook – Week 21

Down goes Devin. Unfortunately, it looks like you’ll have to bench Mr. Harris this week. Who can you start in his place?

Evil’s Outlook goes around the league and examines which players are hot and cold and which players you should keep an eye on. Listed first are the # of games played for each team, followed by 5 teams with poor and favorable schedules. There’s no team analysis this week, but I’ve added 5 players to bench and 5 players to start in addition to the usual Top Pickups. If you’re contemplating any moves, I’ll reply to as many as I can before Monday’s games tip-off, so post your comments/questions below.

4 games: BOS, CHA, CLE, DET, GS, HOU, LAC, MEM, MIN, NJ, NO, OKC, PHI, POR, SAC, SA, WAS
3 games: ATL, CHI, DAL, DEN, IND, LAL, MIA, NY, ORL, TOR
2 games: MIL, PHO, UTA

5 Poor Schedules

1. Milwaukee Bucks (2 games – Orlando, Portland)
2. Phoenix Suns (2 games – Philadelphia, Washington)
3. Miami Heat (3 games – @Boston, @New Jersey, @Detroit)
4. Indiana Pacers (3 games – Portland, Dallas, @Cleveland)
5. Memphis Grizzlies (4 games – Portland, Denver, @New Orleans, Boston)

5 Favorable Schedules

1. Philadelphia 76ers (4 games – @LA Lakers, @Phoenix, @Golden State, @Sacramento)
2. Charlotte Bobcats (4 games – Toronto, Sacramento, @Toronto, Indiana)
3. New Orleans Hornets (4 games – Houston, Minnesota, Memphis, Golden State)
4. Los Angeles Clippers (4 games – @Golden State, Washington, @Detroit, @Toronto)
5. Los Angeles Lakers (3 games – Philadelphia, Golden State, Chicago)

Bench ‘Em

Caron Butler (Wizards)

For a guy whose nickname is “Tough Juice,” Caron Butler sure misses a lot of games. He re-injured his hamstring on Friday and missed Sunday’s game, making him a very risky play this week. He’s going to have an MRI on Monday, but with Washington looking for more ping-pong balls, they have no incentive to bring him back early. Another tough break for those of you who drafted the versatile forward (myself included).

Devin Harris (Nets)

Harris left Sunday night’s game after taking a nasty fall and spraining his left shoulder. He’s going to have an MRI on it and has already been ruled out for Monday’s game at Denver. I’m guessing he’ll miss Wednesday’s game at New York as well, and he could easily miss more time depending on what the MRI shows. If you have a decent replacement, you probably want to bench the emerging star this week.

Rasheed Wallace (Pistons) & Kenyon Martin (Nuggets)

Unfortunately for their teams and fantasy owners, these veteran big men are hobbling into the home stretch. Wallace has missed 3 games in a row with a sore calf, and he can’t even run on it yet. He’s doubtful for Detroit’s upcoming road trip, and he could miss the entire week. K-Mart’s bad back has been even more troublesome, and he’s a major question mark for the week ahead. Bench them and hope they return strong.

Marquis Daniels (Pacers)

Daniels has had a very solid season for the Pacers, but the return of Danny Granger makes him expendable. He started on Sunday, but scored just 7 points in 24 minutes. Danny will be re-claiming his starting spot any day now, and when you factor in the Pacers’ tough schedule (Blazers, Mavs, and Cavs), that means you should bench Daniels and look for a replacement.

Ramon Sessions (Bucks)

After going for 22 points, 6 boards, and 9 assists against the Knicks last Tuesday, Sessions finished the week quietly, averaging just 24.5 minutes and 4.5 points in his last 2 games. Ridnour is cramping his style once again, and with 2 games against tough defenses this week (the Magic and Blazers), Ramon should be on your bench.

Start ‘Em

Monta Ellis (Warriors)

In case you missed it, Monta Ellis is back. He’s averaged 24.7 points, 4.7 rebounds, 4 assists, and 1.3 steals in 38.7 minutes since returning to the lineup, and he’s starting to look like the Monta of old. He’s dropped just 6 dimes in his last 2 games, but that’s going to change soon. How come? Well for starters, Stephen Jackson was ejected on Sunday after picking up his 16th and 17th technical fouls of the season. This means that he must serve a one-game suspension, leaving guys like Ellis to pick up the slack. The Warriors also want to see if Monta is capable of playing point guard, so expect him to have the ball in his hands quite a bit the rest of the way.

Ronny Turiaf (Warriors)

Biedrins is out for at least a week, which means that Turiaf should be a reliable starter once again. In his last 4 contests, he’s averaging a solid 8.3 points, 7.3 boards, and 3 blocks in just 24 minutes per game. Golden State’s first 2 games this week are against the Clippers and Lakers (the latter game being on TNT), so look for Ronny to start the week off strong.

Thaddeus Young (76ers)

Over his last 4 games, Young has averaged a rock solid 24.3 points, 5.3 boards, 1 steal, 1.5 treys, and just 1 turnover on 56% shooting from the field. He scored a career-high 31 points on Friday and is currently playing the best basketball of his career. Philly also travels West this week to face several forgiving defenses (the Lakers, Suns, Warriors, and Kings), making Thad a must-start in most leagues.

Samuel Dalembert (76ers)

Just when he was being dropped in many leagues, Dalembert bounced back in a big way. In his last 3 games, he averaged a monster 11.7 points, 14.7 boards, and 3.7 blocks in 32.7 minutes, and Philly won all 3 of those games. The 76ers have a full schedule the rest of the way, so if you need a center, all you can do is start Sammy and cross your fingers.

Zach Randolph (Clippers)

Don’t be scared by his games missed over the weekend. Randolph was in Indiana attending his father’s funeral, but he should return for week 21. Assuming he’s back by Tuesday, he’ll get to feast on the weak frontlines of the Warriors and Wizards. On Friday, he’ll face a Pistons squad that could be missing Rasheed Wallace, and he’ll close out the week against the fantasy-friendly Raptors. Start him with confidence.

Top Pickups

1. Dominic McGuire (Wizards)

Despite owning McGuire in several leagues this season, I’ve been very reluctant to start him. This is because he rarely scores in double digits and was shooting just 41% from the field before February 1st. However, the athletic forward has been much more reliable since then. In his last 20 games, McGuire is averaging a respectable 33.4 minutes, 6.3 points, 6.7 rebounds, 3.8 assists, .9 steals, and 1.4 blocks on 50% FG shooting. Obviously the scoring is still very poor, but the rest of those numbers are rock solid. He’s playing with a lot of confidence, and with Caron Butler ailing, McGuire will continue to log heavy minutes. The all-around stat-stuffer is still being ignored in most leagues, but it’s time to show him some love.

2. Keyon Dooling (Nets)

Dooling will move back into the starting lineup again thanks to Devin’s injury, giving him some nice short-term value. He had 6 points, 5 dimes, 2 steals, and 1 three in 26 minutes on Sunday, and should put up even better numbers while Harris is out. In 6 starts earlier this season, he averaged a rock solid 15.3 points, 5 assists, 1 steal, and 1.5 treys on 50.7% FG and 86.7% FT shooting. If you need a guard to fill-in for you, he’s an excellent option.

3. Renaldo Balkman (Nuggets)

When asked who might step up in Kenyon Martin’s absence a week ago, I mentioned Balkman as a candidate, but said it was hard to recommend him because he’s limited offensively and isn’t a reliable shot-blocker. He must have heard me, because he scored a career-high 22 points on Saturday and has blocked 4 shots in his last 3 games. The scoring will surely come down, but Renaldo has been a beast on the boards lately, averaging 12.3 rips over his last 4 games. With K-Mart still struggling with his bad back, Balkman looks like a decent pickup.

4. Craig Smith (Timberwolves)

When Jason Collins got the flu last week, Minnesota moved Craig Smith into their starting lineup. He’s responded by averaging 14 points and 8 rebounds on 69.6% FG shooting in just 24 minutes over his last 3 games. Surprisingly, the Wolves even won 2 of those games! The downside is that he has more girth than length, so he doesn’t block many shots. But if you need FG% help, you’ve got to consider this wide load.

5. Jason Maxiell (Pistons)

It’s a shame that Maxiell doesn’t get more playing time, because he’s fun to watch and is capable of putting up solid stats. He was recently moved into the starting lineup thanks to Rasheed’s injury, and he’s racked up 28 points, 9 rebounds, and 3 blocks on 14-for-18 shooting in his last 2 games. Since January 1st, he’s made an impressive 63% of his shots! Wallace is likely to miss at least 2 more games, so consider picking up Maxiell if you need a big man.

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