Evil’s Outlook: Week 3

Brandan Wright is a stellar shot-blocker, while Marquis Daniels is basking in Mike Dunleavy’s absence. That’s why they’re my top pickups for Week 3.

Evil’s Outlook goes around the league, team by team, and examines which players are hot & cold, and which players are worth keeping an eye on. The outlook for Week 3 suggests 93 players who are safe starts and 54 players who are borderline decisions, so if your league is much smaller or much larger, adjust accordingly.

Listed first are the number of games played for each team, followed by 5 teams with poor and favorable schedules. After that are my 3 Top Pickups for deep leagues and my Top 5 Fill-Ins for short-term help. Lastly, all 30 NBA teams are listed in alphabetical order. Ideally, you’ll be able to get a good feel of what’s going on around the league just by reading this, even if you didn’t watch a single game or look at any boxscores this past week.

4 games: ATL, BOS, DAL, DEN, DET, IND, MIA, MIL, NJN, NYK, OKC, ORL, PHI, PHO, POR, SAC, SA, UTA
3 games: CHA, CHI, CLE, GSW, HOU, LAL, MEM, MIN, NOR, TOR
2 games: LAC, WAS

5 Poor Schedules

1. Washington Wizards (2 games – Utah, @Miami)
2. New Orleans Hornets (3 games – LA Lakers, Portland, @Houston)
3. Los Angeles Lakers (3 games – @Dallas, @New Orleans, Detroit)
4. Portland Trail Blazers (4 games – @Orlando, @Miami, @New Orleans, @Minnesota)
5. Dallas Mavericks (4 games – LA Lakers, @Chicago, Orlando, @New York)

5 Favorable Schedules

1. New York Knicks (4 games – @San Antonio, @Memphis, Oklahoma City, Dallas)
2. Indiana Pacers (4 games – Oklahoma City, @New Jersey, Philadelphia, @Chicago)
3. San Antonio Spurs (4 games – New York, @Milwaukee, Houston, @Sacramento)
4. Minnesota Timberwolves (3 games – @Golden State, Portland, @Denver)
5. Los Angeles Clippers (2 games – Sacramento, Golden State)

Top 3 Pickups

1. Marquis Daniels (Pacers)

After 5 games, Daniels is averaging 15 points, 6.8 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.2 steals, .8 threes, and .6 blocks in 35.8 minutes per game. Those are excellent all-around numbers, and as long as Mike Dunleavy is out, he’ll continue to be a solid fantasy starter. Daniels is shooting just 19% from beyond the arc and he’s never been a great outside shooter, but people were saying good things about Daniels in training camp, and he’s seized a golden opportunity to start the season. Mike Jr. has no idea when he’s going to return, and it doesn’t sound like his knee problems are going away anytime soon, so pickup Marquis ASAP if he’s still available.

2. Brandan Wright (Warriors)

If you’ve never seen Brandan Wright play before, just watch these 3 videos:
1. Throwing it down on Josh Smith
2. Blocking Kevin Durant at the apex
3. SOARING past Matt Carroll

Wright’s extra-long wingspan allows him to meet guys like Josh Smith and Rudy Gay above the rim, so it shouldn’t surprise you that Brandan has already blocked 9 shots in just 77 minutes this season. He’s still quite raw offensively, but he has a nice lefty touch and a high release point (of course) on his jumper. With Al Harrington potentially being traded soon, Wright should be picked up in nearly all leagues. He just turned 21 so you shouldn’t expect too much out of him, but at least he doesn’t get into foul trouble a la Amir Johnson.

3. Sebastian Telfair (Timberwolves)

Minnesota coach Randy Wittman decided to mix things up by starting Telfair at point guard when he returned from his suspension. He’s responded by posting 21 assists to just 3 turnovers in his first 3 games. Unfortunately, he’s made just 10-of-26 shots, which goes in line with his poor career mark of 39% FG shooting. He won’t make a ton of threes or get a bunch of steals, but you get Telfair for the assists… anything else is just a bonus. In 51 starts last season, Sebastian averaged 6.2 dimes to just 1.9 turnovers in 33.6 minutes per game, so he’s extra valuable if your league uses ast/to ratio. Randy Foye is still getting a lot of playing time off the bench, but if Telfair continues to start and get 26+ minutes per game, he’ll be worth owning in most leagues.

Top 5 Fill-Ins

My “Top 3 Pickups” are guys who have the potential to provide solid long-term help for fantasy teams, but my “Top 5 Fill-Ins” are guys who you should consider picking up if you need short-term help in certain categories or positions. Even in deep leagues, most of these players will usually fly under the radar, but they could fill-in quite nicely.

for Steals & Assists: George Hill (Spurs) & C.J. Watson (Warriors)

I’ve yet to see George Hill play, but he’s slated to start for San Antonio now that Tony Parker is injured. He attended Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis, which is neither Indiana nor Purdue, but IUPUI (of course). In his final college season, Hill averaged 21.5 points, 6.8 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 1.8 steals, 1.5 threes, and 2.9 turnovers in 36.8 minutes per game, while shooting a rock solid 54.5% from the field, 45% from beyond the arc, and 81.2% from the line. Those are juicy numbers, but there’s a big difference between The Summit League and the National Basketball Association. So I don’t know what kind of potential Hill has, but someone’s gotta compile stats while Parker is out, and Jacque Vaughn is old and Roger Mason can only do so much. Give Hill a look if you need short-term guard help.

C.J. Watson has started the last 3 games for the Warriors, and he’s averaged a solid 11 points, 5 assists, 1 steal, and 1 turnover in 37 minutes per game. He deserves props because he’s playing with a torn ligament in (and thus a giant brace on) his shooting elbow, which has to be affecting his shot. However, he looks comfortable playing big minutes and is worth owning as long as he’s starting for the Warriors. Just don’t expect him to be a long-term solution for your fantasy team, because he doesn’t make many threes or get many steals, and Marcus Williams is slowly earning more playing time.

for Threes & FT%: Chris Quinn (Heat) & Ime Udoka (Spurs)

In ‘07-08, Quinn attempted just 2.7 threes in 22.3 minutes per game, even tho he shot over 40% from beyond the arc. This season, Miami is asking him to be more of a shooter, and he’s responded by taking 13 threes (and making 9 of them) in his last 2 games. The Heat are in dire need of outside shooting help due to James Jones’ injury, so Quinn has been given the green light and is red hot right now. If you need some treys, consider picking him.

I would have chosen Michael Finley, but he’s shooting an ice cold 26.8% from the field this year. So instead I suggest turning to Ime Udoka for 3-point help. The depleted Spurs need people to score, so Udoka attempted 10 shots on Friday (3rd highest total on the team behind Duncan & Mason). Half of those shot attempts were threes, and he made 3 of them. If you recall Ime’s ‘06-07 season, he made 89 threes in 75 games for Portland, while shooting 40.6% from beyond the arc, so his range is solid. If Quinn is gone, feel free to gamble on Udoka.

for Boards & Blocks: Solomon Jones (Hawks)

Chris Andersen fractured a rib on Sunday, so I dropped him for Solomon Jones. ‘Solo is getting extra playing time due to Josh Smith’s injury, and he’s totaled 19 boards and 5 blocks in 47 minutes in Atlanta’s last 2 games. Jones is long and lean, and the Hawks need him to step up right now. He doesn’t have much of an offensive game, but he’s made 73 of 99 free throws in his NBA career, which could certainly be a lot worse. Give him a look if you need another leather-slapper.

Atlanta Hawks (4 games)

Josh Smith is out 2 to 4 weeks with a sprained ankle, which opens up more minutes for Zaza Pachulia & Solomon Jones. Jones has pulled down 19 boards and blocked 5 shots in his last 2 games, so he could be worth a pickup if you need help in those cats. Flip Murray and Mo Evans will also be asked to score more off the bench now, so keep an eye on them.

START: J. Johnson, Horford, Bibby, M. Williams
BORDERLINE: S. Jones
BENCH: J-Smoov
WATCH: Pachulia, Murray, Evans

Boston Celtics (4 games)

Ray Allen is playing a little better after a slow start. Kendrick Perkins has pulled down 34 rebounds and blocked 17 shots in his last 4 games, so feel free to start him if you need help in those cats. Tony Allen finally had a big game on Sunday (23 points, 5 boards, 2 steals), but he’s not a reliable starter yet.

START: Garnett, Pierce, Rondo, R. Allen, Perkins
BORDERLINE: T. Allen

Charlotte Bobcats (3 games)

After dropping 34 points, 9 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 blocks, 2 steals, and 2 threes in the season opener, Gerald Wallace has cooled down considerably. His name has been involved in several trade rumors recently, which may be affecting his play on the court. Rookie guard D.J. Augustin is averaging 24 minutes, 13 points, 4 assists, 1.7 threes, and just 1 turnover in his last 3 games, so he’s worth a pickup.

START: J-Rich, G. Wallace
BORDERLINE: Okafor, Felton
BENCH: Augustin
WATCH: Dudley

Chicago Bulls (3 games)

Kirk Hinrich could miss up to 3 months with a torn ligament in his thumb, which is a big blow to Chicago’s backcourt. If you don’t have an IR spot for him, you may want to drop him. Ben Gordon will get big minutes until Larry Hughes returns, and Thabo Sefolosha is now worth watching. Joakim Noah is getting decent playing time now, so consider picking him up if someone dropped him. Nocioni played 38 minutes on Saturday because Drew Gooden was injured, so monitor that situation.

START: Rose, B. Gordon, Deng
BORDERLINE: Gooden, Ty Thomas, Noah
BENCH: Nocioni
IR/ DROP: Hinrich
WATCH: Sefolosha

Cleveland Cavaliers (3 games)

LeBron has made 46 of his last 55 free throws (83.6% FT), but don’t expect that to last. Anderson Varejao is starting to put up decent stats, so pick him up if you need a 3rd center. Ben Wallace is averaging 16.1 rebounds, but just 4.4 points per 48 minutes.

START: LeBron, Big Z, Mo Williams
BORDERLINE: D. West
BENCH: Gibson, Varejao, B. Wallace

Dallas Mavericks (4 games)

Josh Howard sat out Sunday’s game with a wrist injury, making him a questionable start this week. Gerald Green filled in admirably, going for 13 points and 12 rebounds. Keep an eye on him in case he earns more minutes. Jason Terry has started the last 3 games, so you can start him with confidence now.

START: Dirk, Kidd, Terry
BORDERLINE: J. Howard
BENCH: Dampier
WATCH: G. Green

Denver Nuggets (4 games)

Kenyon Martin sat out Sunday’s game with a wrist injury and Chris Andersen left Sunday’s game with a fractured rib, so Denver’s frontcourt is hurting. Watch Linas Kleiza and Renaldo Balkman in case Martin misses more games. Nene is dominating the paint right now, and he looks like one of the best value picks of ‘08. JR Smith had a horrible game on Sunday (4 points, 3 turnovers, and 5 fouls in just 14 minutes), but I’m sure he’ll get hot soon.

START: Anthony, Billups, Nene
BORDERLINE: JR Smith, K-Mart
WATCH: Kleiza, Balkman
DROP: A. Carter, C. Andersen

Detroit Pistons (4 games)

Tayshaun Prince is on fire (averaging 23 points, 9.3 rebounds, and 2 threes in his last 3 games), so he’s a must-start right now. Amir Johnson finally had a solid game on Sunday (7 points, 5 boards, 2 steals, and 3 blocks in just 22 minutes), but he’s still very unreliable at this point. Jason Maxiell has struggled big time since McDyess got traded, but I’m confident that he’ll turn it around soon. Stuckey played just 12 minutes on Sunday before leaving the game lightheaded.

START: Iverson, Hamilton, Prince, R. Wallace
BORDERLINE: Amir
BENCH: Stuckey, Maxiell

Golden St. Warriors (3 games)

Andris Biedrins is simply dominant right now, and appears to be this year’s version of Chris Kaman. Corey Maggete (hamstring) and Al Harrington (back) have each missed the past 2 games, which has opened up minutes for Brandan Wright & others.

START: S. Jackson, Biedrins
BORDERLINE: Azubuike, B. Wright
BENCH: Maggette, Harrington, CJ Watson

Houston Rockets (3 games)

Yao’s stats have been very mediocre recently, so I’m expecting him to bounce back in week 3. Tracy McGrady is just 1-for-16 in his last 2 games, but I suggest starting him and hoping for the best. Aaron Brooks had 20 points, 4 assists, and 3 threes on Sunday, so he’s definitely worth watching if you need guard help.

START: Yao, Artest, T-Mac
BORDERLINE: Scola
BENCH: Alston, Battier
WATCH: Brooks, Landry

Indiana Pacers (4 games)

Troy Murphy has 3 double-doubles in 5 games and is averaging 2.4 treys per game, which makes him a must-start player right now. Marquis Daniels continues to put up solid all-around stats in Mike Dunleavy’s absence, so pick him up if he’s still available. Jeff Foster erupted for 12 points and 13 boards on Saturday, so consider starting him this week 3 due to Indy’s favorable schedule.

START: Granger, Murphy, Ford, M. Daniels
BORDERLINE: Foster
BENCH: Dunleavy
WATCH: Jack

L.A. Clippers (2 games)

Baron Davis and Marcus Camby returned in week 2, and both players are starting to heat up, so make sure they’re in your lineups. Meanwhile, Tim Thomas sprained his ankle, so drop him if you picked him up. Eric Gordon played 30 minutes and made 3 threes on Sunday, so keep an eye on the rookie.

START: B. Davis, Kaman, Camby
BORDERLINE: Thornton
BENCH: Mobley, R. Davis
WATCH: E. Gordon
DROP: T. Thomas

L.A. Lakers (3 games)

Pau Gasol is averaging 14 rebounds in his last 3 games, while Lamar Odom’s stats are mediocre at best. Thru 5 games, Kobe Bryant is averaging just .6 threes and 3.4 assists (1.8 threes and 5.4 assists per game in ‘07-08). Trevor Ariza is playing great (5 rebounds, 2 steals, and 1.2 threes per game), but he’s not getting enough minutes yet to count on him.

START: Kobe, P. Gasol, Bynum
BENCH: Odom, Fisher, Radmanovic
WATCH: Ariza, Farmar

Memphis Grizzlies (3 games)

In his last 3 games, OJ Mayo has made 11 threes and scored a total of 79 points. He’s getting rave reviews around the league, and he’ll only get better. Marc Gasol has fallen back to earth after his monster game vs. Golden State, making him just a so-so option for week 3. Mike Conley is in a funk, so keep an eye on Kyle Lowry (total of 12 assists, 5 steals, and 3 threes in his last 3 games). Darko Milicic picked up 5 fouls in just 9 minutes on Sunday, so you can safely drop him and let him fade into bolivian.

START: Gay, Mayo
BORDERLINE: M. Gasol, Arthur
BENCH: Conley, Warrick
WATCH: Lowry
DROP: Darko

Miami Heat (4 games)

In my Miami Heat team preview posted on Sept. 14th, I said not to sleep on Mario Chalmers. I noted how he led the Big 12 in thefts in all 3 of his seasons at Kansas, and to prove that he could do the same thing in the NBA, he nabbed 9 steals last Wednesday vs. Philly! Mario’s value is pretty solid right now, but just wait’ll he adjusts to the longer 3-point line. Chris Quinn has been encouraged to become less of a playmaker and more of a spot-up shooter, and he’s responded by making 9-of-13 treys in his last 2 games. If you need threes, he’s worth a pickup, but don’t expect too much or you’ll be disappointed.

START: Wade, Marion, Beasley, Haslem, Chalmers
BORDERLINE: Quinn
WATCH: Cook

Milwaukee Bucks (4 games)

Michael Redd has missed 3 games in a row with a sprained ankle, so check for an injury update Monday afternoon. Luke Ridnour is still starting, but he’s getting outplayed by Sessions at the moment. Speaking of getting outplayed, Charlie Villanueva continues to lose minutes to Mbah a Moute and should be benched until further notice.

START: Bogut, R. Jefferson, Sessions
BORDERLINE: Redd, Ridnour, Mbah a Moute
BENCH: Villanueva

Minnesota Timberwolves (3 games)

After a slow start, Mike Miller has made 9 threes, grabbed 19 boards, and dished out 12 assists in his last 3 games. Kevin Love shot 0-for-7 on Saturday, but he’s now starting, which is very good if you own him. Sebastian Telfair was also inserted into the starting lineup recently, so pick him up if you need assists. Randy Foye is still getting solid minutes off the bench, but his owners should be worried. After being one of Minnesota’s most dependable players last season, it seems that Ryan Gomes is now a mere afterthought, which doesn’t make sense to me.

START: A. Jefferson, M. Miller
BORDERLINE: Love, Telfair, Foye
BENCH: Gomes, C. Brewer
DROP: McCants

New Jersey Nets (4 games)

Devin Harris exploded for 38 points on Friday, but he sprained his ankle and missed Saturday’s game. It didn’t swell up too much, so he might be able to play on Monday. I’m planning on starting him unless I hear he’ll miss 2 more games. Yi Jianlian is shooting just 36% from the field, but he’s getting enough boards and blocks to make up for it. Josh Boone has been up and down, making him a borderline start this week.

START: V. Carter, Harris, Jianlian
BORDERLINE: Boone
BENCH: B. Lopez, B. Simmons

New Orleans Hornets (3 games)

The Hornets have 3 tough games this week, making anyone besides Paul & West risky plays. Peja recovered from his ankle injury quickly, and he’s made 10 treys in his last 2 games. Morris Peterson and Rasual Butler did very little in his absence, so both can safely be dropped.

START: Paul, D. West
BORDERLINE: T. Chandler, Stojakovic
BENCH: Posey
DROP: Peterson, R. Butler

New York Knicks (4 games)

The Knicks have a very favorable schedule this week, so start them with confidence. Jamal Crawford finally had one of his big games, dropping 32 points and 5 treys on Sunday. Zach Randolph has 4 straight double-doubles, but David Lee is coming off the bench now and his value is hurting. After a sluggish start, Chris Duhon has dropped 21 assists in his last 2 games, showing why I picked him to have a career year.

START: Crawford, Randolph, ‘Lil Nate, Duhon, Lee, W. Chandler
BORDERLINE: Q-Rich

Oklahoma City Thunder (4 games)

Jeff Green had 22 points, 3 threes, and 3 steals on Friday, but his shot is still very inconsistent. Nick Collison and Chris Wilcox aren’t doing much of anything, which makes me think that both players are nursing injuries. Joe Smith went for 14 points and 9 boards on Sunday, so keep an eye on him in case he gets more minutes.

START: Durant, Green, Watson
BORDERLINE: Westbrook
BENCH: Collison, Wilcox
WATCH: J. Smith

Orlando Magic (4 games)

Dwight Howard had a sup-par performance on Thursday, but he bounced back with 31 points and 16 rebounds on Saturday. He’s now shooting a monster 65% from the field, but a Shaq-like 48.5% from the line. Mickael Pietrus has had to battle foul trouble recently, but he’s still racked up 7 threes, 5 steals, and 2 blocks in his last 5 games.

START: D. Howard, Lewis, Turkoglu
BORDERLINE: Pietrus, Nelson

Philadelphia 76ers (4 games)

Elton Brand scored just 6 points in his last game and is now averaging just 12.7 field goal attempts and 14.7 points per contest, well below his career averages. Andre Miller is shooting just 38.6% from the field and dishing out just 5.7 assists per game. Stop shooting and pass the rock Andre! Thaddeus Young continues to knock down treys and score at a high clip, so keep him in your lineup.

START: Brand, Iguodala, A. Miller, Dalembert, T. Young
BENCH: L. Williams

Phoenix Suns (4 games)

Amare Stoudemire has scored 99 points and made a whopping 49-of-53 free throws in his last 3 games! Shaq sat out Friday’s game to stay fresh, then dropped 29 points and 11 rebounds on Saturday vs. the Bucks. Terry Porter is going to give him (and perhaps Nash) games off every now and then, so pay attention to this. Matt Barnes has missed the last 3 games due to personal reasons, so you may want to bench him and consider starting Grant Hill as a result.

START: Stoudemire, Nash, Shaq
BORDERLINE: Bell, Barnes, G. Hill
BENCH: Barbosa, Diaw

Portland Trail Blazers (4 games)

The duo of Brandon Roy & LaMarcus Aldridge is playing superbly, but Portland has a tough schedule this week, so their other players aren’t sure bets. It sounds like Greg Oden will be out at least another week, so Joel Przybilla is an option if you’re desperate for center help.

START: Roy, Aldridge
BORDERLINE: Fernandez, Outlaw, Blake, Przybilla
BENCH: Oden

Sacramento Kings (4 games)

Kevin Martin scored 27 points in 31 minutes on Sunday, but he left the game early with another ankle injury. It doesn’t sound bad, so I suggest starting him unless you hear that he’s going to miss more than 1 game. Brad Miller has played well since returning from suspension, so make sure he’s in your lineup. Spencer Hawes is still putting up solid numbers off the bench, so start him while you can. Bobby Brown has made 6 threes and dropped 10 assists in his last 3 games, so keep an eye on him.

START: Kev-Mart, Salmons, B. Miller, Hawes
BORDERLINE: Udrih
BENCH: Garcia, Thompson
WATCH: B. Brown

San Antonio Spurs (4 games)

San Antonio has a favorable schedule this week, but they don’t have many reliable options. Tony Parker erupted for 55 points last Wednesday, but he’ll miss up to a month with an ankle injury, meaning that Roger Mason could be a fantasy stud for the time being. Rookie point guard George Hill will get a chance to prove himself, so consider picking him up if he performs well. The Spurs are desperate for scoring help now, so consider starting Ime Udoka or Michael Finley in deep leagues, and keep an eye on Desmon Farmer.

START: Duncan, R. Mason
BORDERLINE: Udoka, Finley
BENCH: T. Parker, Ginobili
WATCH: G. Hill, Farmer

Toronto Raptors (3 games)

Chris Bosh is playing like an MVP candidate right now, and it’s a pleasure to watch if you own him. Jamario Moon pulled down 9 rebounds in 36 minutes on Sunday, which is a good way for him to keep his starting job. Andrea Bargnani continues to play well off the bench, but I only suggest starting him if you’re desperate for threes.

START: Bosh, Calderon
BORDERLINE: J. O’Neal, A. Parker, Moon
BENCH: Bargnani

Utah Jazz (4 games)

It sounds like Deron Williams owners will have to wait ANOTHER week (or more) before seeing him in action. Brevin Knight has been getting more minutes in his absence, and is worth picking up if you need steals and assists. It’s still early, but one of the more interesting storylines for me is how well Andrei Kirilenko is playing off the bench for Utah. In the previous 5 years, AK 47 had started 320 of his 330 games, but it looks like he has his sights on the ‘08-09 6th Man Award.

START: Boozer, Okur, Kirilenko, R. Brewer
BORDERLINE: Knight
BENCH: D. Williams
WATCH: Millsap, Korver

Washington Wizards (2 games)

The Wizards only have 2 games this week, and their opponents (Utah & Miami) are solid defensive teams, making Caron Butler & Antawn Jamison questionable starts. Butler will be hounded by Kirilenko & Marion, so I’m leaning towards benching him. Juan Dixon started their last game in place of Antonio Daniels, so keep an eye on him in deep leagues. Nick Young is averaging 18.3 points in his last 4 games, but I don’t recommend starting him just yet. Etan Thomas hasn’t done much this season, so JaVale McGee is worth picking up in case he gets more minutes.

BORDERLINE: Butler, Jamison
BENCH: Arenas, Stevenson, N. Young, McGee
WATCH: Blatche, Dixon
DROP: A. Daniels, E. Thomas

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