Evil’s Outlook: Week 4

Is JaVale “Lemonhead” McGee the most athletic center prospect since Dwight “Superman” Howard? And will Howard become the 1st player since Dikembe Mutombo to block 4 shots per game?

Evil’s Outlook goes around the league, team by team, and examines which players are hot and cold, and which players you should keep an eye on. The outlook for Week 4 suggests 98 players who are safe starts and 50 players who are borderline, so if your league is much smaller or larger, adjust accordingly. Listed first are the # of games played for each team, followed by 5 teams with poor and favorable schedules.

After that are my 3 Top Pickups for deep leagues and my Top 5 Fill-Ins for short-term help. Lastly, all 30 NBA teams are listed in alphabetical order. Ideally, you’ll be able to get a good feel of what’s going on around the league just by reading this, even if you didn’t watch a single game or look at any boxscores this past week.

4 games: ATL, BOS, CHI, DEN, HOU, LAC, LAL, MIL, OKC, POR, SAC, TOR, UTA, WAS
3 games: CHA, CLE, DAL, DET, GSW, IND, MEM, MIA, MIN, NJN, NOR, NYK, ORL, PHI, PHO, SAS

5 Poor Schedules

1. Phoenix Suns (3 games – @Utah, LA Lakers, Portland)
2. Minnesota Timberwolves (3 games – Philadelphia, Boston, @Detroit)
3. Orlando Magic (3 games – Toronto, @Indiana, Houston)
4. Indiana Pacers (3 games – Atlanta, Orlando, @Miami)
5. Toronto Raptors (4 games – @Orlando, @Miami, New Jersey, Boston)

5 Favorable Schedules

1. Los Angeles Clippers (4 games – San Antonio, @Oklahoma City, @Philadelphia, @New Jersey)
2. Portland Trail Blazers (4 games – @Golden State, Chicago, @Sacramento, @Phoenix)
3. Houston Rockets (4 games – @Oklahoma City, Dallas, @Washington, @Orlando)
4. New Orleans Hornets (3 games – Sacramento, @Oklahoma City, Oklahoma City)
5. Philadelphia 76ers (3 games – @Minnesota, LA Clippers, Golden State)

Top 3 Pickups

1. JaVale McGee (Wizards)

In my Outlook for Week 3, I said that “JaVale McGee is worth picking up in case he gets more minutes,” and sure enough, he averaged 25.5 minutes in 2 games last week. A lot of people are raving about this kid, from All-Stars like Chris Paul and Carlos Boozer, to RotoEvil forum members like catman2051. Despite all the hype, he’s still owned in just 3.7% of ESPN leagues (say what?!) and 43% of CBS Sportsline leauges.

“Lemonhead” has played just 120 NBA minutes thus far, but he’s totaled 56 points, 38 rebounds, 7 blocks, and (this is key) just 11 fouls. That translates to a rock solid 16.8 points, 11.4 rebounds (3.9 offensive), 2.1 blocks, and 3.3 fouls per 36 minutes. While he’s not going to average 36 minutes this season, he could very well play 24-30 minutes from now ’till the All-Star break, and perhaps 30+ minutes afterwards. The Wizards are going to fall out of the Playoff race early this season, so their youngsters could see extra run in the 2nd half. If you want to reap the rewards later, you must pick him up now, because a couple more double-doubles and he’ll likely be gone. FYI – In case you’re wondering about the nickname, here’s Caron Butler’s take:

“Just look at him. You see the box of lemonheads and you see the little smiley face on there and you put that up to JaVale and he looks just like him. I mean identical. We’ve got Stewie, we’ve got lemonhead. Man we’ve got a lot of stuff going on around here.” ~Caron Butler

2. Anthony Morrow (Warriors)

LSU rookie Anthony Randolph has shown flashes of talent early on, but Georgia Tech rookie Anthony Morrow has stolen the spotlight. Morrow was given a chance to start on Saturday, and he responded with 37 points, 11 rebounds, and 4 threes on 15-20 shooting from the field. Remember, it was against the Clippers and the Warriors attempted a whopping 94 shots from the field, but Morrow is no slouch.

Over the summer, he was the MVP of the Rocky Mountain Revue, he made 44.8% of his 3-pointers last year in college, and Don Nelson says he’s the best pure shooter on the team. The 11 boards were a fluke (he averaged just 4.1 per game last season) and I’m not sure if he’ll do much else besides score, but Morrow can shoot the lights out and is worth owning if he continues to get 32+ minutes. Will that happen? Only Don Nelson knows.

3. Ryan Gomes (Timberwolves)

Something strange happened on Sunday. Jason Collins started at center, but Ryan Gomes also started and played a season-high 35 minutes. He had a solid all-around line of 12 points, 4 boards, 4 assists, 2 blocks, 1 steal, and 1 three, and I believe that Randy Wittman will give him more playing time as a result. Corey Brewer’s minutes have plummeted, so he’s no longer in the picture. With the defensive-minded Collins now in at center, the Wolves need a versatile small forward who can knock down shots. That man is Ryan Gomes.

In 74 starts last season, the former Providence star averaged 30.7 minutes, 13.1 points, 6.0 rebounds, 1.9 assists, .8 steals, and .8 threes with solid shooting %’s. Not eye-popping numbers by any means, but solid fantasy stats for a reliable backup player. He was likely dropped in most leagues due to his slow start, but Gomes is worth picking up if you need another forward.

Top 5 Fill-Ins

My “Top 3 Pickups” are guys who have the potential to provide solid long-term help for fantasy teams, but my “Top 5 Fill-Ins” are guys who you should consider picking up if you need short-term help in certain categories. Even in deep leagues, most of these players will usually fly under the radar, but they could fill-in quite nicely.

for Points & Assists: Flip Murray (Hawks)

I thought that Maurice Evans was going to be solid as Atlanta’s 6th man, but it looks like Ronald “Flip” Murray is the man to own instead. Believe it or not, he’s averaging more points per game than Marvin Williams, Josh Smith, and Al Horford! His 2.6 assists in just 25.7 minutes per game is pretty solid, and his 1.2 steals and 1.2 threes per game are career-best marks. With 4 games this week, Murray is a nice fill-in if you need guard help.

for Steals & FG%: Trevor Ariza (Lakers)

Last week I said that Ariza wasn’t getting enough minutes to count on him yet, but since then, his playing time has gone up while Radmanovic’s has gone down. Radman is in a 5-for-22 slump, so Ariza looks like a solid pickup right now. Despite coming off the bench, he’s currently tied for 10th in steals with Ron Artest and LeBron James (not bad company), and he’s shooting over 50% from the field for the 3rd season in a row. I kind of soured on him when he lost the starting small forward job in preseason, but his current stats have reminded me why I chose his to break out this season.

for Threes & FT%: Daequan Cook (Heat) and Adam Morrison (Bobcats)

If you need treys, look no further than Daequan Cook, who has made 25 of them in just 10 games thus far. In fact, he’s clearly more comfortable outside the arc than he is inside, because he’s made 25-of-64 threes (39.1%), but just 10-of-30 twos (33.3%). As a rookie, he didn’t contribute much else besides outside shooting, but in his sophomore season, he’s become a much tougher defender, thus ensuring himself a key spot in Miami’s rotation.

It took a long for him to bounce back, but Adam Morrison is finally looking comfortable on the court again. The injury to Jason Richardson has opened up more minutes for him, and he’s responded with 45 points and 7 threes in 75 total minutes in his last 3 games. The rest of his stats are virtually non-existent, but there’s no denying his shooting touch. The Bobcats play just 3 times in week 4, but they play a max of 4 games in weeks 5 thru 8, making him a nice short-term pickup.

for Boards & Blocks: Rasho Nesterovic (Pacers)

Since returning from an ankle injury, Rasho has scored 32 points, grabbed 20 rebounds, and blocked 3 shots in 3 games for Indiana. Even more impressive to me is that he’s averaging 2.4 assists this season, which currently ranks him 3rd among all centers (behind Brad Miller & Al Horford). While that number may decline a bit, it’s a sign that he’s comfortable with his new system and teammates, which in turn suggests that he’ll continue to get solid minutes as the Pacers starting center.

Atlanta Hawks (4 games)

After a superb 6-0 start, the Hawks have fallen back to Earth with 3 straight losses. Joe Johnson is stuffing stat sheets with the best of them, as he currently ranks 3rd in threes, 4th in scoring, 13th in steals, and 25th in assists. Flip Murray is averaging 16.3 points, 3.3 assists, 1.7 steals, and 1.3 threes in his last 3 games, making him a possible starter in deep leagues.

START: J. Johnson, Horford, Bibby, M. Williams
BORDERLINE: Murray
BENCH: J-Smoov

Boston Celtics (4 games)

Paul Pierce is on fire, having made 13 threes and a whopping 50-of-55 free throws in his last 4 games alone. Rajon Rondo is just 5-for-25 in his last 4 games, but you almost have to keep him active for his steals and assists. You can safely drop Tony Allen because his minutes have plummeted, but he’ll have value at some point this season.

START: Garnett, Pierce, R. Allen, Rondo
BORDERLINE: Perkins
DROP: T. Allen

Charlotte Bobcats (3 games)

Jason Richardson had an exploratory arthroscopic procedure on his right knee on Wednesday, so bench him and hope he returns soon. Emeka Okafor’s minutes and stats have been down recently, making him a borderline start with just 3 games this week. Adam Morrison’s minutes and shot attempts have gone up, and he’s averaging 15 points and 2.3 treys in his last 3 games. He’s finally playing with some confidence, and is a decent starter while J-Rich is out.

START: G. Wallace
BORDERLINE: Okafor, Felton, Morrison
BENCH: J-Rich, Augustin

Chicago Bulls (4 games)

Derrick Rose continues to put up impressive numbers, and he’s even cut down on his turnovers recently. After a slow start, Andres Nocioni is averaging 32 minutes, 15 points and 2.5 threes in his last 4 games. Unfortunately, his emergence has made Joakim Noah and Tyrus Thomas even more unreliable. Larry Hughes is worth watching since he returned from injury, but I don’t suggest starting him until he does a little more.

START: D. Rose, B. Gordon, Deng, Gooden
BORDERLINE: Nocioni, Noah
BENCH: Ty Thomas
WATCH: Hughes

Cleveland Cavaliers (3 games)

LeBron is averaging 35.5 points in his last 4 games, and I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t set a career-high in scoring this season. Mo Williams is shooting just 32.7% from beyond the arc, but he’s picked up his play recently and should be a must-start the rest of the way. Meanwhile, Daniel Gibson played just 15 minutes on Saturday and 19 on Thursday, so you can safely drop him.

START: LeBron, Big Z, Mo Williams
BORDERLINE: D. West
BENCH: Varejao, B. Wallace
DROP: Gibson

Dallas Mavericks (3 games)

After a quiet start, Dirk exploded for 39 points and 15 rebounds on Sunday. Josh Howard also had a season-high 31 points, 14 boards, and 3 blocks, so he must have recovered from his wrist injury. After racking up 27 points, 34 boards, and 6 blocks on Tuesday & Thurday, Erick Dampier combined for just 4 points, 10 boards, and 1 block on Friday & Sunday. If you thought that you could rely on him, think again.

START: Dirk, Kidd, J. Howard, Terry
BENCH: Dampier

Denver Nuggets (4 games)

Carmelo is shooting just 35% from the field in his last 3 games, but he’s hitting the boards hard and is due to get hot. Chauncey Billups already has two 25+ point games for Denver, after dropping just 10 of them for Detroit last season. J.R. Smith quietly has 7 treys and 4 steals in his last 3 games, so pick him up if someone panicked and dropped him. Despite coming off the bench on Sunday, Linas Kleiza had 7 boards and 3 treys.

START: Anthony, Billups, Nene, K-Mart, JR Smith
BORDERLINE: Kleiza

Detroit Pistons (3 games)

Rasheed Wallace is currently averaging a career-high 9.3 rebounds per game. So much for the young guys stealing away his stats. Tayshaun Prince finally had a mediocre game on Sunday, but he was due for an off game. Kwame Brown is now starting at center for Detroit, thus killing the present value of Amir Johnson and Jason Maxiell.

START: Iverson, Hamilton, Prince, R. Wallace
BENCH: Stuckey
DROP: Amir, Maxiell

Golden St. Warriors (3 games)

Andris Biedrins set a Warriors record with his 16th straight double-double, and it doesn’t look like the streak is going to end anytime soon. Despite his huge game on Saturday, I’m still calling Anthony Morrow a borderline starter for week 4. Brandan Wright didn’t play on Saturday, so I suggest benching him this week.

START: S. Jackson, Biedrins, Maggette
BORDERLINE: Azubuike, Morrow, CJ Watson
BENCH: B. Wright, Harrington

Houston Rockets (4 games)

Yao Ming’s 21 point game on Saturday was his first 20-point performance since Oct. 30th, which is very disappointing. Ron Artest continues to struggle with his shot, and is now shooting just 32.9% from the field. Houston has a favorable schedule this week, so consider starting Alston, Scola, and Brooks.

START: Yao, T-Mac, Artest
BORDERLINE: Alston, Scola, Brooks
BENCH: Battier

Indiana Pacers (3 games)

T.J. Ford is filling up the stat sheet, even averaging 7.2 rebounds in his last 5 games. Troy Murphy was slowed by the flu last week, but he had a double-double on Saturday, so start him with confidence. Rasho Nesterovic has been solid since returning from his ankle injury, but Jeff Foster’s minutes are declining due to Murphy’s return.

START: Granger, Ford, Murphy
BORDERLINE: M. Daniels, Nesterovic
BENCH: Foster, Dunleavy
WATCH: Jack

L.A. Clippers (4 games)

Baron Davis is starting to heat up, with 20.5 points and 10 assists per in his last 4 games. Marcus Camby came off the bench vs. the Warriors, but you should keep him in your lineup. Ricky Davis finally had a good game last week, so keep an eye on him if you need a swingman.

START: B. Davis, Kaman, Camby
BORDERLINE: Thornton, Mobley
WATCH: R. Davis

L.A. Lakers (4 games)

Pau Gasol is pulling down more rebounds than ever before, but he’s blocked just 7 shots in 8 games. Lamar Odom played a season-low 20 minutes in his last game, so he’s a very risky start this week. Fisher and Radmanovic are in shooting slumps, so keep them on your bench this week.

START: Kobe, P. Gasol, Bynum
BORDERLINE: Odom, Ariza
BENCH: Fisher, Radmanovic

Memphis Grizzlies (3 games)

In his first 10 NBA games, O.J. Mayo has five 20+ point games. Compare this to LeBron James, who had just four in the same time span. Mike Conley continues to struggle big time, but Kyle Lowry isn’t playing much better, so try to hang onto Conley for a little while longer.

START: Gay, Mayo
BORDERLINE: M. Gasol
BENCH: Conley, Arthur, Warrick
WATCH: Lowry

Miami Heat (3 games)

Dwyane Wade tweaked his ankle on Sunday, but he doesn’t expect to miss any time. Michael Beasley isn’t doing much besides scoring, making him a borderline starter this week. Consider starting Daequan Cook if you need threes, but you should probably bench the slumping Mario Chalmers.

START: Wade, Marion, Haslem
BORDERLINE: Beasley, Cook
BENCH: Chalmers, Quinn

Milwaukee Bucks (4 games)

Michael Redd has missed 7 games in a row, but he’s trying to return this week. Consider your alternatives before activating him. After a quiet start, Andrew Bogut is averaging 14 points and 13.7 boards in his last 3 games. Luke Ridnour is getting big minutes right now, so it makes sense to start him.

START: Bogut, R. Jefferson, Ridnour, Sessions
BORDERLINE: Redd, Mbah a Moute
BENCH: Villanueva

Minnesota Timberwolves (3 games)

Can Mike Miller please get some more shot attempts? I know he’s unselfish, but he’s one of Minnesota’s most efficient scorers. Randy Foye is playing well off the bench, while Sebastian Telfair’s minutes are dwindling. Ryan Gomes is now starting for Randy Wittman, so consider starting him in deep leagues.

START: A. Jefferson, M. Miller
BORDERLINE: Foye, Gomes
BENCH: Love, Telfair
DROP: C. Brewer

New Jersey Nets (3 games)

Devin Harris returned from his ankle injury to drop 63 points, 18 assists, 4 steals, and 4 threes in just 2 games. Of course, I had him on my bench (d’oh!). Brook Lopez has been starting at center in place of Josh Boone, but I have yet to hear how severe Boone’s injury is. Yi Jianlian and Bobby Simmons are struggling, so keep an eye on Ryan Anderson and Jarvis Hayes.

START: V. Carter, Harris
BORDERLINE: B. Lopez, Jianlian
BENCH: Boone, B. Simmons
WATCH: R. Anderson, J. Hayes

New Orleans Hornets (3 games)

David West and Tyson Chandler get to face the Thunder’s weak frontline TWICE this week, so make sure they’re in your lineup. Peja Stojakovic has scored a TOTAL of just 21 points in his last 3 games, so start him at your own risk this week. Keep an eye on Devin Brown, who had 13 points and 3 steals on Saturday and is earning more minutes.

START: Paul, D. West, T. Chandler
BORDERLINE: Stojakovic
BENCH: Posey
WATCH: D. Brown

New York Knicks (3 games)

After a monster 27 point, 18 rebound, 2 trey performance on Sunday, Zach Randolph now has 8 straight double-doubles. Chris Duhon is averaging 9.2 assists in his last 6 games, tying him with Steve Nash for 5th overall. Q-Rich had a solid game on Sunday (17 points, 8 boards, 3 treys), but I don’t recommend starting him just yet.

START: Crawford, Randolph, Duhon, Nate
BORDERLINE: Lee, W. Chandler
BENCH: Q-Rich

Oklahoma City Thunder (4 games)

If you throw out his 37 point, 8 rebound, 3 block game vs. Indiana, Kevin Durant has had a very poor start to his sophomore season. Meanwhile, his buddy Jeff Green is groovin: 62 points, 21 boards, 8 assists, 6 steals, and 4 threes in his last 3 games. Chris Wilcox’s knee is still bothering him, which has opened up more minutes for Johan Petro and Robert Swift (I’m not a big fan of either guy).

START: Durant, Green, Watson
BORDERLINE: Westbrook, Collison
BENCH: Wilcox

Orlando Magic (3 games)

The Magic have a tough schedule this week, making Jameer Nelson and Pietrus questionable starters. What a man-beast! Dwight Howard has blocked 17 shots in his last 3 contests and is now averaging 4.2 rejections per game. Which leads us to my poll question:

START: D. Howard, Lewis, Turkoglu
BORDERLINE: Pietrus, Nelson

Philadelphia 76ers (3 games)

Andre Iguodala made half of his shots in his last game, so maybe he’s ready to heat up. Andre Miller’s lack of assists has bothered me, so it was nice to see him drop 9 dimes vs. the Thunder. Louis Williams is struggling big time and he’s not getting many minutes, so dump him for now.

START: Brand, Iguodala, A. Miller, Dalembert, T. Young
DROP: L. Williams

Phoenix Suns (3 games)

Phoenix has a tough schedule this week, with games vs. the Jazz, Lakers, and Blazers. Shaq has had a few dominant games recently, so it makes sense to start him since he’s going against his former team and last year’s #1 pick. Steve Nash is dishing out just 7.4 dimes per game early on, his lowest average in 6 years. Grant Hill played well in his absence, but Matt Barnes returns from his suspension this week.

START: Stoudemire, Nash, Shaq
BORDERLINE: Bell, Barnes
BENCH: G. Hill, Barbosa, Diaw

Portland Trail Blazers (4 games)

LaMarcus Aldridge has seen his numbers dip since Greg Oden returned, so beware of this if you own him. Speaking of Oden, he’s pulled down 19 boards and blocked 7 shots in just 48 total minutes in his last 2 games. Get him back in your lineups, and shame on you if you dropped him. Steve Blake is a solid starter this week due to Portland’s nice schedule, but Travis Outlaw is more of a question mark.

START: Roy, Aldridge, Oden, Fernandez, Blake
BORDERLINE: Outlaw
BENCH: Przybilla

Sacramento Kings (4 games)

The Kings play 4 times this week, but Kevin Martin’s status is still very questionable. Beno Udrih is heating up, with 22.5 points, 4.5 assists, and 1.5 steals per game over his last 4. Spencer Hawes is still producing, but I’d like to reiterate my suggestion to sell high while you still can. Jason Thompson has been starting with Martin out, but his lack of blocks is disappointing.

START: Salmons, B. Miller, Udrih, Hawes
BORDERLINE: Kev-Mart, Thompson
BENCH: Garcia

San Antonio Spurs (3 games)

Last week I suggested Udoka over Finley because Michael was in a major slump, but he broke out of it and is averaging 14.8 points and 2.3 threes in his last 4 games. George Hill has had 1 solid games and several so-so ones, so it’s hard to rely on him right now. Matt Bonner finally got a chance to play and has drained 6 treys in his last 2 games, so keep an eye on him in case he earns more minutes.

START: Duncan, R. Mason
BORDERLINE: Finley
BENCH: T. Parker, Ginobili, G. Hill
WATCH: Bonner

Toronto Raptors (4 games)

Jose Calderon missed Sunday’s game with a hamstring injury, so he’s a borderline starter this week. Will Solomon played well in his absence, so he’s someone to watch in case Calderon misses more games. Jermaine O’Neal is putting up big numbers, so get him in your lineup. Andrea Bargnani replaced Jamario Moon in the starting lineup on Sunday, but he’s still a questionable play this week due to Toronto’s tough schedule. I don’t suggest dropping Moon yet.

START: Bosh, J. O’Neal, A. Parker
BORDERLINE: Calderon, Bargnani
BENCH: Moon
WATCH: Solomon

Utah Jazz (4 games)

Utah is hurting right now, as Deron Williams, Kirilenko, Okur, and Harpring all missed their last game. AK 47 should be good to go this week, but Deron is a very risky play. Paul Millsap and Kosta Koufos are decent options since Okur is gone. Ronnie Price and Brevin Knight are splitting PG minutes and limiting each other’s value right now.

START: Boozer, Kirilenko, R. Brewer
BORDERLINE: Millsap, Koufos, D. Williams
BENCH: Okur
WATCH: Price, Knight

Washington Wizards (4 games)

The Wizards are just 1-6, and I don’t see them going on a winning streak anytime soon. Because of this, youngsters JaVale McGee and Nick Young should continue to get big minutes and lots of shots. Not that DeShawn Stevenson cares, but this is the last chance he gets before I suggest giving him the axe. Antonio Daniels’ knee must be hurting pretty bad, but Juan Dixon has yet to take advantage.

START: C. Butler, Jamison, McGee
BORDERLINE: N. Young, Stevenson
BENCH: Arenas
WATCH: Blatche, Dixon

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