Evil’s Outlook: Week 5

Andrea Bargnani must be loving the addition of Jermaine O’Neal, and while he doesn’t seem too happy about it, Cuttino Mobley’s stats should rise in New York.

Evil’s Outlook goes around the league, team by team, and examines which players are hot and cold, and which players you should keep an eye on. The outlook for Week 5 suggests 112 players who are safe starts and 42 players who are borderline, so if your league is much smaller or larger, adjust accordingly. Listed first are the # of games played for each team, followed by 5 teams with poor and favorable schedules.

After that are my 3 Top Pickups for deep leagues and my Top 5 Fill-Ins for short-term help. Lastly, all 30 NBA teams are listed in alphabetical order. Ideally, you’ll be able to get a good feel of what’s going on around the league just by reading this, even if you didn’t watch a single game or look at any boxscores last week.

4 games: CHA, CLE, DEN, GS, HOU, IND, MEM, MIA, MIL, NJ, OKC, ORL, PHI, PHO, POR, SAC, SA, UTA
3 games: ATL, BOS, CHI, DAL, DET, LAC, LAL, MIN, NOR, NYK, TOR, WAS

5 Poor Schedules

1. Toronto Raptors (3 games – Charlotte, Atlanta, @LA Lakers)
2. Dallas Mavericks (3 games – Indiana, @LA Lakers, @Sacramento)
3. Indiana Pacers (4 games – @Dallas, @Houston, Charlotte, @Orlando)
4. Philadelphia 76ers (4 games – @Charlotte, Orlando, @Boston, Chicago)
5. Milwaukee Bucks (4 games – @Orlando, @Atlanta, @Detroit, Cleveland)

5 Favorable Schedules

1. Cleveland Cavaliers (4 games – @New York, Oklahoma City, Golden State, @Milwaukee)
2. Phoenix Suns (4 games – @Oklahoma City, @Minnesota, Miami, New Jersey)
3. Utah Jazz (4 games – Chicago, Memphis, Sacramento, New Jersey)
4. Boston Celtics (3 games – Golden State, Philadelphia, @Charlotte)
5. Atlanta Hawks (3 games – Milwaukee, @Toronto, @Washington)

Top 3 Pickups

1. Andrea Bargnani (Raptors)

After a solid rookie campaign, Barganani struggled big time in his sophomore season. His stats fell in nearly every single category last season, and he shot a miserable 38.6% from the field. Count me as one of the people who drafted “Il Mago” in ‘07 and got burned. Even 2-time Executive of the Year Jerry Colangelo must have questioned his decision to pick Bargnani #1 overall in 2006. However, we should also blame the Raptors for trying to play him as a power forward/ center last season.

The arrival of Jermaine O’Neal has done wonders for Bargnani, as he now gets to operate as a small forward/ power forward and leave most of the dirty work for Bosh & O’Neal. As a result, he’s much more comfortable, and it shows in his stats. Sam Mitchell recently inserted him into the starting lineup, and in the past 4 games, he’s averaging 17.8 points, 5.3 rebounds, 1 block, 2.3 threes, and just 1 turnover per game on 49% FG shooting. Inconsistency has plagued him, but if he can keep it up, he’ll be a poor man’s Danny Granger. In fantasy terms, that’s a very good thing.

2. Cuttino Mobley (Knicks)

Mobley was not very happy about being traded, but I think the veteran shooting guard is going to excel in Mike D’Antoni’s system. The one-time fantasy force has been a fringe fantasy option in recent years, but the Knicks will need him to play big minutes now that Jamal Crawford is gone. Mobley is currently owned in just 54.5% of ESPN leagues, and I’m guessing that some people are hesitant to pick him up after seeing Nate Robinson start and score 27 points on Saturday.

Those people are making a mistake, because ‘Lil Nate is best suited as a sparkplug off the bench. Cuttino is also a superior defender, so I’m expecting him to start at shooting guard, where 71 minutes, 40 points, 5.8 assists, and 9.2 three-point attempts just opened up thanks to Crawford & Randolph’s departure. I’m projecting 32-34 minutes, 16+ points, 3+ assists, and nearly 2 threes per game from Cutty the rest of the way. I don’t know about you, but I could use numbers like that (I just spent $228 of my $1,000 free agent budget to get him).

3. D.J. Augustin (Bobcats)

Larry Brown was looking for more energy from his starting lineup, so he recently inserted DJ Augustin into the lineup. The rookie guard has scored 38 points, made 8 threes, and dished out 10 assists to just 2 turnovers in 2 games since the move. He’s just 12 games into his NBA career, but his 2.4 assist/ turnover ratio is pretty solid and he’s proven to be a capable scorer.

In college last season, Augustin averaged 19.2 points, 5.8 assists, 1.2 steals, and 1.9 threes in 37.3 minutes, and the year before (when he played with Kevin Durant), he dished out 6.7 dimes per game. As long as he’s getting minutes, the stat potential is there. There is some concern that he’ll lose playing time when Jason Richardson returns from injury, but the Bobcats are short on talent, so they could keep the rookie in the lineup and move J-Rich over to small forward. Either way, he’s definitely worth owning right now and could be solid all season long.

Top 5 Fill-Ins

My “Top 3 Pickups” are guys who have the potential to provide solid long-term help for fantasy teams, but my “Top 5 Fill-Ins” are guys who you should consider picking up if you need short-term help in certain categories. Even in deep leagues, most of these players will usually fly under the radar, but they could fill-in quite nicely.

for Assists & FT%: Jarrett Jack (Pacers)

Jack is shooting just 41.7% from the field, but you’re not getting him to score points for you. The backup guard has dished out 14 dimes in his last 3 games, and is averaging 3.2 assists in his last 9. The career 85% FT shooter also gets to the line a fair amount, so he can help you out there as well. Mike Dunleavy isn’t returning anytime soon, so Jack is a decent option for the time being.

for Boards & FG%: Carl Landry (Rockets) and Chris Wilcox (Thunder)

In his last 3 games, Carl Landry is averaging 26.3 minutes, 11.7 points, and 5.7 rebounds. Whenever he gets minutes, he produces. The athletic big man is also shooting a remarkable 88.6% from the line to go along with his 55.6% FG shooting. He’s a decent short-term option, but be careful of Luis Scola and the imminent return of Shane Battier.

Chris Wilcox has been terrible this season, but brighter days could be ahead. PJ Carlesimo wasn’t giving him many minutes, but now that he’s gone, his playing time should increase. In 55 starts last season, Wilcox averaged 14.1 points, 7.5 boards, .8 steals, and .6 blocks on 52.7% FG shooting, so the potential is there. He was dropped in many leagues due to his poor start, so consider picking him up if you need another big man.

for Points & Threes: Ricky Davis and Eric Gordon (Clippers)

SOMEONE needs to play alongside Baron Davis in the backcourt, and Ricky Davis and Eric Gordon are the obvious candidates. Ricky has been absolutely horrendous this season, making just 27% of his shots and doing little else to contribute. But he’s put up big stats in the past, and if he starts hitting some shots, he could get on a roll. Eric Gordon isn’t shooting much better at just 32.6% FG, but the rookie was a big-time scorer in college and has a polished offensive game. If Ricky continues to falter, Gordon could get a chance to prove himself. At this point, both guys are worth picking up in case they establish themselves.

Atlanta Hawks (3 games)

Joe Johnson finally a stinker on Saturday (4 points, 1-8 FG), but you’re crazy if you even think about benching him. Al Horford returned from his ankle injury and looks like a safe start once again. Marvin Williams has picked up his play recently, averaging 17 points, 8.8 rebounds, 1 steal, and 1 three in his last 4 games. Since shooting %’s are solid, so don’t be afraid to play him. Mo Evans is finally playing well (31 points, 13 rebounds, and 6 threes in his last 2 games), but he’ll likely lose his value once Josh Smith returns.

START: J. Johnson, Horford, Bibby, M. Williams
BENCH: J-Smoov
WATCH: M. Evans

Boston Celtics (3 games)

Kevin Garnett didn’t go the line at all on Sunday and is now averaging just 2.5 free throw attempts per game. Considering his career average is more than double that, I’m very disturbed by that stat. Ray Allen made 5-of-7 threes on Sunday, which is nice considering he was shooting just 28.4% from beyond the arc when the game started. Rajon Rondo is playing great (61 points, 24 assists, 18 rebounds, 10 steals, and 3 treys in his last 4 games), so make sure he’s active.

START: Garnett, Pierce, R. Allen, Rondo
BORDERLINE: Perkins

Charlotte Bobcats (4 games)

Raymond Felton nabbed 7 steals on Saturday and is now averaging a career-high 1.9 thefts per game, which helps to make up for his poor FG% and lower than expected assist totals. DJ Augustin must like that number as well, as he made 7 treys and dropped 7 dimes on Friday. The rookie is now starting, so activate him until Richardson comes back. After showing signs of life, Adam Morrison reverted back to his old unreliable self.

START: G. Wallace, Felton, Okafor, Augustin
BENCH: J-Rich
DROP: Morrison

Chicago Bulls (3 games)

Ben Gordon made 5-of-7 threes on Sunday and is now averaging over 2 treys per game. Drew Gooden is still putting up solid numbers, as Joakim Noah and Tyrus Thomas have yet to do much of anything. Larry Hughes has put up decent stats in Luol Deng’s absence, but I don’t suggest starting him yet. Deng has missed 3 straight games, making him a risky start this week.

START: D. Rose, B. Gordon, Gooden
BORDERLINE: Deng
BENCH: Nocioni, Noah, Ty Thomas, Hughes

Cleveland Cavaliers (4 games)

The Cavs play 4 times this week and get to face the Knicks, Thunder, and Warriors, so if you own any of them, you may as well start ‘em. Mo Williams is on fire, averaging 21.6 points and 3.4 threes in his last 5 games. Delonte West is also shooting a blistering 52.9% from the field and 49.1% from 3-point land, which helps explain why the Cavs’ offense is firing on all cylinders. Ben Wallace has grabbed 7 steals and blocked 10 shots in his last 4 games, showing that he still has some gas left in the tank.

START: LeBron, Big Z, Mo Williams, D. West, Varejao, B. Wallace

Dallas Mavericks (3 games)

Josh Howard has missed 2 straight games, ensuring that he won’t play 80+ games for the 6th year in a row. Jason Terry has been putting up rock solid all-around numbers, and unlike Howard, you don’t have to worry about him missing games. Erick Dampier had 11 points, 16 rebounds, and 3 blocks in his last meeting with Bynum and the Lakers, so I double-dog dare you to start him this week.

START: Dirk, Kidd, Terry
BORDERLINE: J. Howard, Dampier

Denver Nuggets (4 games)

Carmelo Anthony continues to shoot under 40% from the field, but he’s currently the ONLY player in the NBA averaging more than 8 rebounds (8.7) and 4 assists (4.5) per game. Similarly, Nene is one of just 5 players averaging more than 1.5 steals (1.57) and 1.5 blocks (1.79) per game. JR Smith is still struggling and likely being drop left and right. If you need threes, hang onto him a little while longer if you can.

START: Anthony, Billups, Nene, K-Mart
BORDERLINE: Kleiza
BENCH: JR Smith

Detroit Pistons (3 games)

I didn’t read this until just now, but Allen Iverson had his knee drained last Tuesday. Hopefully that explains his poor play recently and it will help him in the future. Richard Hamilton is shooting just 38.8% FG thus far, which must feel horrible for a guy who’s shot a combined 48.1% from the field the past 3 seasons. Still, I think you should start him in case he gets hot. Detroit has lost 3 of their last 4 games (including a 26 point blowout at the hands of Minnesota), so maybe Michael Curry will start to give his youngsters more minutes. Jason Maxiell in particular has totaled 52 minutes and gone for 22 points and 14 boards in his last 2 games.

START: Iverson, Hamilton, Prince, R. Wallace
WATCH: Maxiell

Golden St. Warriors (4 games)

I know that Nellie’s small ball lineup is all the rage right now, but Elton Brand & Dalembert schooled the Warriors inside on Sunday, which resulted in Corey Maggette playing just 49 seconds in the 4th quarter and Nelson going with a Randolph-Wright-Turiaf frontcourt. With Jamal Crawford’s arrival, Maggette, Azubuike, and Morrow aren’t going to be quite as reliable, and CJ Watson should be benched until further notice.

START: S. Jackson, Biedrins, Crawford, Maggette
BORDERLINE: Azubuike, Morrow
BENCH: CJ Watson, B. Wright
WATCH: A. Randolph

Houston Rockets (4 games)

Yao Ming owners would love to see more performances like his game vs. the Magic on Saturday (22 points & 13 boards on 9-for-15 shooting). Surprisingly, Tracy McGrady has yet to miss a game and has made 9 treys in his last 3 contests. Scola and Landry continue to limit each other’s value, making both guys risky plays right now.

START: Yao, T-Mac, Artest, Alston
BORDERLINE: Scola, Landry, Brooks
BENCH: Battier

Indiana Pacers (4 games)

Troy Murphy isn’t shooting the ball very well, but he’s pulled down 53 rebounds and dished out 15 assists in his last 4 games, giving him solid value. Kudos if you started Marquis Daniels last week, as he had back-to-back 25 point, 5 rebound, 1 steal games. The Pacers have a tough schedule this week, but their entire starting lineup has been reliable lately.

START: Granger, Ford, Murphy, M. Daniels, Nesterovic
BORDERLINE: Foster, Jack
BENCH: Dunleavy

L.A. Clippers (3 games)

Are the Clippers going to trade Chris Kaman to Charlotte? If you own Camby or Zach Randolph, let’s hope so, as there aren’t enough big man minutes for all 3 of them. I’m a little worried about starting Randolph this week, but it depends on your alternatives. Ricky Davis has been starting since the trade, but he still hasn’t done anything. Both he and Eric Gordon are worth owning in case either one earns big minutes.

START: B. Davis, Kaman, Camby, Thornton
BORDERLINE: Z. Randolph
BENCH: R. Davis, E. Gordon

L.A. Lakers (3 games)

Andrew Bynum has posted 2 straight double-doubles, and you wonder how many he could get if he got more minutes. Trevor Ariza continues to put up rock solid numbers (30 rebounds, 17 assists, and 10 steals in his last 5 games) in limited minutes off the bench. Radmanovic is hot again (10 treys in his last 3 games), so don’t forget about him if you need outside shooting help.

START: Kobe, P. Gasol, Bynum
BORDERLINE: Odom, Ariza
BENCH: Fisher, Radmanovic

Memphis Grizzlies (4 games)

Marc Gasol is scoring more points lately, but he’s averaging just 5.4 rebounds in his last 5 games. Fortunately, his 58.8% FG shooting is still excellent. Did someone wake up Mike Conley? He’s averaging 12.3 points and 5 assists in his last 3 games, but remains a very risky starter. Arthur and Warrick continue to limit each other’s value, so bench both players until one emerges.

START: Gay, Mayo, M. Gasol
BORDERLINE: Conley
BENCH: Arthur, Warrick

Miami Heat (4 games)

All-everything Dwyane Wade has blocked 12 shots in his last 4 games and is now averaging 2 rejections per game. If he can keep it up, he’ll become the 1st guard and the 1st player under 6-5 to swat that many shots. Shawn Marion owners must feel a little better after watching the Matrix total 38 points, 23 boards, and 8 steals in his last 2 games.

START: Wade, Marion, Haslem, Beasley
BORDERLINE: Chalmers, Cook
BENCH: Quinn

Milwaukee Bucks (4 games)

Michael Redd is not travelling with the team, so don’t start him this week. Charlie Villanueva has played well since returning from injury, but he and Mbah a Moute will likely limit each other’s value. Luke Ridnour played just 12 minutes on Saturday due to a sore knee, making him a risky start this week.

START: Bogut, R. Jefferson, Sessions
BORDERLINE: Mbah a Moute, Villanueva, Ridnour
BENCH: Redd

Minnesota Timberwolves (3 games)

After a quiet start, Randy Foye exploded for 23 points, 14 dimes, 3 treys, 2 steals, and just 2 turnovers vs. Iverson and the Pistons on Sunday. Start him and hope that he can keep it up. Ryan Gomes was my #3 Top Pickup last week, and he’s averaging 32.5 minutes, 13.3 points, 4.8 rebounds, 1.3 steals, and 1.3 threes in his last 4 games. Keep an eye on Craig Smith (42 points and 16 boards in his last 3 games), because he’s currently outplaying Kevin Love.

START: A. Jefferson, M. Miller, Foye
BORDERLINE: Gomes
BENCH: Love, Telfair
WATCH: C. Smith

New Jersey Nets (4 games)

Even if you don’t like Vince Carter, you have to give him some props. The Nets have won 4 of their last 5 games and are averaging 111.4 points per game in that span. Yi continues to be one of the most inconsistent players in the league, but with 4 games on tap, he should be good for at least one strong game. Brook Lopez is averaging 14.6 points, 9 boards, and 1.6 blocks in his last 5 games, and he may hang onto the starting job since the Nets are playing so well.

START: V. Carter, Harris, Jianlian, B. Lopez
BORDERLINE: B. Simmons
BENCH: Boone

New Orleans Hornets (3 games)

It’s almost unfair how much Chris Paul is dominating the assists category. He’s averaging 45% more dimes than the #3 man (Jason Kidd), and only 11 other players are averaging even HALF of his 11.8 dimes per game. Tyson Chandler TOTALED just 8 points, 11 rebounds, and 1 block in 2 games vs. the Thunder last week, a team that most big men dominate. Can someone please tell me what is going on with TC?

START: Paul, D. West
BORDERLINE: Stojakovic
BENCH: T. Chandler, Posey

New York Knicks (3 games)

The Knicks did a little roster shake-up last week that I’m sure you all heard about. With Crawford & Randolph gone, that means that 32.6 shot attempts, 14.0 rebounds, and 5.8 assists just opened up. David Lee (22 points & 12 boards on Saturday) is a big winner here, and Cuttino Mobley will be as well once he gets settled in. Quentin Richardson had a monster game on Saturday (34 points, 12 boards, 7 threes), but Al Harrington & Tim Thomas will likely cut into his production big time.

START: Duhon, Lee, Nate, W. Chandler
BORDERLINE: Mobley, Harrington, Q-Rich
WATCH: T. Thomas

Oklahoma City Thunder (4 games)

Kevin Durant has coughed the ball up 22 times in his last 5 games and is now 3rd in turnovers with 3.6 per game. The Thunder fired PJ Carlesimo last week, which might mean more minutes for Russell Westbrook. If the rookie is still available in your league, you might want to pick him up. Chris Wilcox (14 points & 10 boards in his last game) may also earn more playing time, so keep an eye on him.

START: Durant, Green, Westbrook
BORDERLINE: Watson, Collison, Wilcox
WATCH: Wilkins

Orlando Magic (4 games)

Most of Dwight Howard’s stats are actually down from last season, except for blocks, where he’s nearly doubled last year’s average. Jameer Nelson is hot, averaging 20.2 points and 5 assists on 56% shooting in his last 5 games. Pietrus has been quiet since returning from his rib injury, making him a questionable start this week.

START: D. Howard, Lewis, Turkoglu, Nelson
BORDERLINE: Pietrus

Philadelphia 76ers (4 games)

Elton Brand got off to a slow start, but he’s averaging 17.6 points, 10.4 boards, 2.4 assists, and 2.2 blocks in his last 5 games, which is much closer to what his owners were hoping for. After averaging just 4.3 dimes and .7 steals in his first 9 games, Andre Miller has posted a much more solid 7.5 dimes and 1.8 steals in his last 4 contests. Another fun Thaddeus Young stat: he’s shot 60% or better from the field in 6 of Philly’s 13 games thus far.

START: Brand, Iguodala, A. Miller, Dalembert, T. Young

Phoenix Suns (4 games)

While Stoudemire and Nash are underachieving somewhat, Shaq is playing great. He’s averaging 17.5 points, 8.9 boards, and 2.8 assists in his last 8 games, so start him with confidence. The Suns have a very favorable schedule this week, making Barnes and Bell solid starts and Grant Hill a decent option as well. Barbosa missed the past 5 games for his mother’s funeral, but he’s expected back this week.

START: Stoudemire, Nash, Shaq, Barnes, Bell
BORDERLINE: G. Hill, Barbosa
BENCH: Diaw

Portland Trail Blazers (4 games)

Congrats if you started Steve Blake last week. The unheralded point guard amassed 58 points, 17 assists, and 13 threes in 4 games, so you may want to start him while he’s hot. In his last 3 games, Joel Przybilla has totaled 77 minutes, 27 boards, and 10 blocks, while Greg Oden has totaled just 50 minutes, 19 boards, and 3 blocks. I almost feel bad for Oden owners, but we all knew that he was a risky pick.

START: Roy, Aldridge, Blake, Fernandez
BORDERLINE: Oden, Przybilla
BENCH: Outlaw

Sacramento Kings (4 games)

Kevin Martin and Francisco Garcia are still out, making the rest of the Kings solid starts. Jason Thompson has been very solid recently, averaging 13 points, 8.2 boards, 2 steals, and 1 block over his last 5 games. The rookie has a bright future. Also keep an eye on PG Bobby Brown. The undrafted rookie has gotten extra playing time recently, and he’s scored 34 points and dished out 14 assists in his last 2 games.

START: Salmons, B. Miller, Udrih, Hawes, Thompson
BENCH: Kev-Mart, Garcia
WATCH: B. Brown

San Antonio Spurs (4 games)

While he’s been consistently solid, Tim Duncan has gone 8 straight games without scoring 25+ points (expect at least 1 monster game this week). Finley is averaging 16.8 points and 1.8 threes in his last 4 games, but Ginobili wants to return this week, making Finley a risky start. Manu’s minutes will probably be limited for a couple of games, so you should lean towards benching him this week.

START: Duncan, R. Mason
BORDERLINE: G. Hill, Finley, Ginobili
BENCH: T. Parker
WATCH: Bonner

Toronto Raptors (3 games)

Chris Bosh continues to dominate, but Jermaine O’Neal hurt his knee on Friday and did not play well on Sunday. Anthony Parker has made 10 treys in his last 3 games, and is now averaging a rock solid 1.8 threes and 1.6 steals per game. Bargnani is red hot, so consider starting him before he cools off.

START: Bosh, Calderon, A. Parker, Bargnani
BORDERLINE: J. O’Neal
BENCH: Moon

Utah Jazz (4 games)

Carlos Boozer is out with a quad/ knee injury, so make sure you bench him this week. Surprisingly, Paul Millsap hasn’t done much in his absence, but that could change. Mehmet Okur finally had a good game on Saturday (22 points, 4 treys), so you can start him with confidence now. Deron Williams plans to play on Wednesday, but he’s a risky start once again. I don’t think CJ Miles can keep up his strong play, but he’s worth watching.

START: Okur, Kirilenko, R. Brewer
BORDERLINE: D. Williams, Millsap
BENCH: Boozer
WATCH: CJ Miles

Washington Wizards (3 games)

Antawn Jamison is red hot, averaging 22.8 points, 11.2 boards, 1.8 steals, and 1.4 threes on 53.3% FG shooting in his last 5 games. DeShawn Stevenson has dished out 20 assists and made 7 threes in his last 3 games, but he’s been battling a hamstring problem and remains a FG% killer. JaVale McGee was rather quiet last week, but the good news is that he’s now starting at center. I suggest benching him this week, but don’t think about dropping him unless there’s a proven alternative available.

START: C. Butler, Jamison
BORDERLINE: Stevenson
BENCH: Arenas, N. Young, McGee

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