Evil’s Outlook: Week 6

These 2 rookie guards have already been thrust into their starting lineups. Find out why they should be owned in almost all leagues.

Evil’s Outlook goes around the league, team by team, examining all relevant players. The outlook for Week 6 suggests 100 players who are safe starts and 37 players who are borderline, so if your league is much smaller or larger, adjust accordingly. Listed first are the # of games played for each team, followed by 5 teams with poor and favorable schedules.

After that are my 3 Top Pickups for deep leagues and my Top 5 Fill-Ins for short-term help. Lastly, all 30 NBA teams are listed in alphabetical order. Ideally, you’ll be able to get a good feel of what’s going on around the league just by reading this, even if you didn’t watch a single game or look at any boxscores last week.

4 games: BOS, CHA, IND, LAC, LAL, MIN, NY, PHI, POR, UTA, WAS
3 games: ATL, CHI, CLE, DAL, DEN, DET, GS, MEM, MIA, MIL, NJ, OKC, ORL, PHO, SA, TOR
2 games: HOU, NO, SAC

5 Poor Schedules

1. Sacramento Kings (2 games – Utah, Denver)
2. Golden State Warriors (3 games – Miami, @Houston, @San Antonio)
3. Oklahoma City Thunder (3 games – @Charlotte, @Orlando, @Miami)
4. Toronto Raptors (3 games – @Denver, @Utah, Portland)
5. Indiana Pacers (4 games – LA Lakers, @Boston, @Cleveland, Boston)

5 Favorable Schedules

1. Los Angeles Lakers (4 games – @Indiana, @Philadelphia, @Washington, Milwaukee)
2. Utah Jazz (4 games – @Sacramento, Miami, Toronto, @Phoenix)
3. Charlotte Bobcats (4 games – Minnesota, Oklahoma City, @Milwaukee, Cleveland)
4. Miami Heat (3 games – @Golden State, @Utah, Oklahoma City)
5. Chicago Bulls (3 games – Philadelphia, @Milwaukee, Washington)

Top 3 Pickups

1. Russell Westbrook (Thunder)

At first I didn’t consider Westbrook to be a top pickup, but then I saw that the rookie is currently owned in just 19.9% of ESPN leagues. The rookie point guard was considered somewhat raw coming out of college, but rookie coach Scott Brooks must like what he’s seen, because he inserted Westbrook into the starting lineup on Saturday and gave him 38 minutes of playing time. Russell scored just 12 points, but he pulled down 5 offensive rebounds, dished out 4 assists, grabbed 2 steals, and led his team to a victory. Considering it was just the Thunder’s 2nd win of the year, the latter fact is key. In his last 5 games, Westbrook is averaging 12.8 points, 6.6 assists, 3.6 rebounds, and 2.8 steals, and he’s shooting over 80% from the line for the season. Like most rookies he’ll be somewhat inconsistent, but if he continues to dish out that many assists, he’ll be a better shooting version of Rajon Rondo. If he’s still available in your league, pick him up ASAP!

2. Eric Gordon (Clippers)

I mentioned Gordon as a “Fill-in” pickup last week, but he’s clearly going to be much more than that. With Ricky Davis ailing, he was placed into the starting lineup on Wednesday and responded with 2 monster games in a row, combining for 49 points, 8 steals, 8 threes, and 7 assists. Gordon struggled on Saturday and left with a strained hamstring, but the injury is minor and Eric should be back soon. Since the Clippers likely won’t be contending for a playoff spot this year, they have plenty of reasons to give the rookie more playing time. He’s an explosive scorer, and he’s going to learn a lot playing with Baron Davis. He’s currently owned in just 18% of ESPN leagues, so swoop him up before his next big game.

3. Tim Thomas (Knicks)

Mike D’Antoni recently said that Tim Thomas isn’t in good enough shape to play in his offense, but he’s still given him an average of 27.7 minutes of playing time in 3 games since the trade. In those contests, Thomas averaged 14.3 points, 7 rebounds, 1 steal, and 2.3 treys per game, making him a solid pickup for the time being. One reason he’s gotten extra playing time is the absence of Cuttino Mobley. If Mobley’s heart condition forces him to miss an extended period of time, Thomas could have very good long-term value, because the Knicks just aren’t very deep right now. If you need outside shooting help, you should definitely consider picking him up.

Top 5 Fill-Ins

My “Top 3 Pickups” are guys who have the potential to provide solid long-term help for fantasy teams, but my “Top 5 Fill-Ins” are guys who you should consider picking up if you need short-term help in certain categories. Even in deep leagues, most of these players will usually fly under the radar, but they could fill-in quite nicely.

for Steals & Assists: Antonio Daniels (Wizards) and Rodney Stuckey (Pistons)

Daniels averaged just 24 minutes in Washington’s first 4 games before sitting out 6 of their next 8 games with knee soreness. However, he returned last week and played 38 minutes on Saturday, scoring a season-high 10 points. The Wizards are desperate for solid point guard play, so if Daniels’ knee can handle it, he’ll continue to get big minutes. In 63 starts last season, he averaged 5.1 dimes and 1.1 steals, which are solid numbers for a guy who’s available in almost all leagues.

Many people were high on Stuckey entering this season (I said to be careful of him), but he got off to a poor start and was likely dropped in almost all leagues. However, his playing time has increased recently and he’s been much more aggressive offensively, averaging 13.3 points, 7 assists, and 2 steals over his last 3 games. If you’re looking for a point guard with upside and Westbrook is already gone, consider taking a flier on Rodney.

for Assists & Threes: Anthony Johnson (Magic) and Luther Head (Rockets)

Anthony Johnson was signed by Orlando to be Jameer Nelson’s backup, but he’s been thrust into the starter role due to Nelson’s current strained hip flexor. Johnson has responded with 31 points, 20 assists, 2 steals, and 6 threes in his last 3 games, making him a nice short-term pickup. After all, any PG playing with Dwight Howard, Rashard Lewis, and Hedo Turkoglu is bound to rack up some assists.

After barely playing at all in Houston’s first 16 games, Luther Head was suddenly placed in the starting lineup and given 41 minutes of action on Saturday. He responded with 21 points, 5 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 threes, and 2 steals, showing that he didn’t need any time to shake off the rust. Head has always been a superb shooter and scorer when he gets enough minutes, and Houston has enough weapons for him to dish out some dimes as well. He shot just 1-for-7 on Sunday, but he started once again and still had 4 boards and 4 assists. With both Tracy McGrady and Brent Barry ailing, and Shane Battier not 100% just yet, Head could be a decent short-term pickup.

for Points & Threes: Courtney Lee (Magic)

What does Courtney Lee have in common with Russell Westbrook, Jeff Green, Michael Beasley, and Brook Lopez? All 5 youngsters were 2008 Orlando Summer League 1st Team selections. In those 5 summer league contests, Lee averaged 28.4 points, 1.7 steals, 1.6 threes, and 1.1 blocks, so he’s clearly a big-time scorer with some athleticism. With Pietrus out for up to 5 weeks with a torn ligament in his thumb, extra minutes are available at the shooting guard shot. JJ Redick has been starting, but he hasn’t done much of anything, so keep an eye on Lee and pick him up if he has a big game.

Atlanta Hawks (3 games)

Josh Smith had his first full workout in nearly 3 weeks on Thanksgiving morning, and is planning on playing in Atlanta’s next game, so don’t forget to activate him. After going 0-for-6 from beyond the arc in the season opener, Mike Bibby made 40 threes and shot 47% from beyond the arc in November. Mo Evans had been putting up solid numbers lately, but he’ll go back to being an inconsistent option due to J-Smoov’s return.

START: J. Johnson, J-Smoov, Bibby, Horford, M. Williams

Boston Celtics (4 games)

In Boston’s last 2 games, Kevin Garnett has totaled 26 points, 9 rebounds, and 4 blocks, while Kendrick Perkins has racked up 23 points, 19 boards, and 6 blocks. What is wrong with this picture? Rajon Rondo has nabbed 2+ steals in 9 straight games, and now ranks 4th in that category. After a very slow start, Tony Allen has now scored in double figures in 5 of his last 6 games and grabbed 9 steals in the same time span. Keep an eye on him in case his minutes increase.

START: Garnett, Pierce, R. Allen, Rondo, Perkins
WATCH: T. Allen

Charlotte Bobcats (4 games)

The Bobcats have struggled thus far, but Jason Richardson returned to action last week and looks like a safe start for week 6. DJ Augustin has moved back to the bench, but he’s still getting lots of playing time and putting up solid stats. How inconsistent has Raymond Felton been? In his last 3 games, he’s scored 4 points, 31 points (a career-high), and 4 points.

START: J-Rich, G. Wallace, Felton, Okafor, Augustin

Chicago Bulls (3 games)

In Derrick Rose’s first full month in the NBA, he averaged 18.9 points, 6.1 assists, and 2.6 turnovers on 49.6% FG and 85.4% FT shooting. Not bad at all, but things will likely get tougher from here on out. Drew Gooden is red hot, averaging 19.4 points and 10.6 rebounds in his last 5 games. Luol Deng’s stats should improve soon, but I can’t say the same for Joakim Noah or Tyrus Thomas, as Coach Del Negro has effectively killed both of their fantasy values. I just dropped Noah, and Thomas isn’t far behind.

START: D. Rose, B. Gordon, Gooden
BORDERLINE: Deng
BENCH: Ty Thomas, Hughes, Nocioni
DROP: Noah

Cleveland Cavaliers (3 games)

The Cavs are rolling right now, as they’ve beaten their last 5 opponents by an average margin of +18.8 points. As a result, LeBron only had to play 31.2 minutes in those 5 games, and is averaging a career-low 35.7 mpg this season. With only 3 games, Delonte West and Ben Wallace are borderline starters, while Varejao should be benched.

START: LeBron, Big Z, Mo Williams
BORDERLINE: D. West, B. Wallace
BENCH: Varejao

Dallas Mavericks (3 games)

We all know that Dirk can score, but now he’s hitting the glass hard: the soft 7-footer is averaging 11.1 boards in his last 7 games. Jason Terry has been phenomenal this season, but it’s hard to imagine him keeping this pace up. Is there a more frustrating player to own than Josh Howard? It seems like his health is “questionable” half the time, and I don’t suggest starting him until he actually plays.

START: Dirk, Kidd, Terry
BENCH: J. Howard, Dampier

Denver Nuggets (3 games)

To answer my previous question, YES, there is a more frustrating player to own than Josh Howard, and that man is JR Smith. On Wednesday, JR didn’t play at all because he was late for practice. On Thursday, he busted loose for 32 points, 5 threes, 4 assists, and 2 steals against his former team. On Saturday, he played just 7 minutes and did nothing. Then on Sunday, he scored 19 points and had 5 treys and 4 assists again. Of course, he got extra playing time on Sunday because Carmelo left the game early. It was finally revealed that ‘Melo’s shooting elbow has been bothering him since training camp, which helps explain his poor shooting thus far. Check back on Monday afternoon for an injury update, and if Anthony can’t play on Tuesday, roll the dice with Junior.

START: Billups, Nene, K-Mart
BORDERLINE: Anthony, JR Smith
BENCH: Kleiza
WATCH: Andersen

Detroit Pistons (3 games)

Allen Iverson is already clashing with his new team, and he’s scored 20+ points just once in his last 7 games. Tayshaun Prince & Rasheed Wallace have fallen back to Earth recently, but both are still solid starts. Jason Maxiell & Amir Johnson have been alternating nice games, so it’s tough to rely on either one at this point.

START: Iverson, Hamilton, Prince, R. Wallace
BORDERLINE: Stuckey
WATCH: Maxiell, Amir

Golden St. Warriors (3 games)

I know that the Warriors don’t like to play defense, but allowing an average of 123.3 points to their last 4 opponents is beyond awful. Biedrins has cooled down a bit from his stellar start, but you obviously can’t complain if you own him. Stephen Jackson missed Saturday’s game with a sprained wrist, and his status for Monday’s game is currently up in the air. Azubuike might still have value if Jackson’s injury lingers, but I dropped him last week and you should look to replace him. Brandan Wright and Anthony Morrow can safely be dropped for the time being, but all of the Warrior rookies should be watched closely.

START: Biedrins, Crawford, Maggette
BORDERLINE: S. Jackson
BENCH: CJ Watson, Azubuike
WATCH: A. Randolph, B. Wright, Morrow

Houston Rockets (2 games)

The inevitable finally happened, as T-Mac has now missed 3 games in a row with his knee injury. He’s going to meet with the world-renowned Dr. James Andrews on Monday, so stay tuned for more information. Ron Artest shot a miserable 32.7% from the field in November and the Rockets play just twice in week 6, but you still might want to start him because their opponents are the Clippers and Warriors. Shane Battier is back, but I don’t suggest starting him just yet.

START: Yao
BORDERLINE: Artest
BENCH: T-Mac, Alston, Battier, Scola, Landry, Brooks, Head

Indiana Pacers (4 games)

T.J. Ford is averaging a career-high 14.6 points, but a career-low 5.3 assists per game. I’m sure his owners would love to see less shooting and more passing. Troy Murphy is officially back to being a double-double guy, as he’s one of just 4 players averaging 10.5+ rebounds and points (D. Howard, Biedrins, and Bosh are the others). Marquis Daniels continues to play well, but the Pacers have a horrific schedule this week, so consider benching him. Brandon Rush has been getting a lot of burn recently, so keep an eye on the rookie.

START: Granger, Ford, Murphy
BORDERLINE: M. Daniels
BENCH: Dunleavy, Nesterovic, Foster, Jack
WATCH: B. Rush

L.A. Clippers (4 games)

The Clippers had a gutsy win on Saturday, but they remain at the bottom of the Pacific Division. Chris Kaman is sidelined with a foot injury, so get him on your bench. Zach Randolph exploded for 27 points and 13 boards in his absence, and both he and Camby will be excellent starters while Kaman’s out. Eric Gordon didn’t practice on Sunday, so he’s a borderline start this week. Ricky Davis is out with a knee injury, so the struggling veteran is no longer worth owning.

START: B. Davis, Z. Randolph, Camby, Thornton
BORDERLINE: E. Gordon
BENCH: Kaman
DROP: R. Davis

L.A. Lakers (4 games)

The Lakers have a very favorable schedule this week, so I recommend starting almost all of them. After failing to score 15 points in his first 8 games, Andrew Bynum has scored 15+ in his last 4 games now. Despite playing a career-low 25.4 minutes, Lamar Odom is averaging a career-high 1.4 steals per game.

START: Kobe, P. Gasol, Bynum, Odom, Ariza, Fisher
BORDERLINE: Radmanovic
WATCH: Farmar

Memphis Grizzlies (3 games)

O.J. Mayo is averaging 26.6 points in his last 5 games, and he’s raised his FG% to a very solid 46.4%. Darrell Arthur picked up 4 fouls in just 8 minutes on Saturday, so he can safely be dropped. Darko Milicic actually had a couple of decent games last week, but he’s got to show a lot more before I suggest picking him up.

START: Gay, Mayo
BORDERLINE: M. Gasol
BENCH: Conley
DROP: Arthur, Warrick

Miami Heat (3 games)

Dwyane Wade has made 53.8% of his 2-point shots and continues to dominate. It looked like Marion was starting to turn things around, but his line on Saturday was terrible (5 points, 1-6 FG, 5 turnovers). Michael Beasley followed up a 0 point performance on Friday with 24 points and 3 treys on Saturday. The Heat get to face the Warriors and Thunder this week, so I suggest starting Beasley & Chalmers. Chris Quinn’s minutes have plummeted, so feel free to drop him.

START: Wade, Marion, Haslem, Beasley, Chalmers
BORDERLINE: Cook
DROP: Quinn

Milwaukee Bucks (3 games)

Michael Redd finally returned on Saturday, so get him back in your lineup. Unfortunately, Andrew Bogut has missed 3 games in a row and doesn’t know when he’ll return. Even if Redd’s return pushes Sessions to the bench, Ramon will be more reliable than Ridnour for the time being. Charlie V’s playing time has been limited lately, but he’s averaging a surprising 14.5 points and 6.8 rebounds in just 20.3 minutes over his last 6 games.

START: Redd, R. Jefferson, Sessions
BORDERLINE: Villanueva, Ridnour
BENCH: Bogut, Mbah a Moute

Minnesota Timberwolves (4 games)

I don’t want to jinx him, but Al Jefferson is currently shooting 80% from the line, which has solidified his status as a Top 15 fantasy player. I thought that it was a mirage, but Mike Miller has scored in double digits just once in his last 5 games. Be more selfish Mike! Kevin Love finally had a solid game on Saturday (18 points and 12 boards), but he’s still a risky start.

START: A. Jefferson, M. Miller, Foye
BORDERLINE: Gomes, Love
BENCH: Telfair

New Jersey Nets (3 games)

The Nets have won 7 of their last 9 games and Devin Harris is dominating. The emerging superstar dropped 47 points and 8 assists on Sunday, and is now averaging a whopping 29.2 points and 6.6 assists in his last 10 games. Brook Lopez is averaging a solid 13 points, 8.6 boards, and 2.2 blocks in his last 5 games, almost ensuring that he’ll keep his starting job when Josh Boone returns.

START: Harris, V. Carter
BORDERLINE: B. Lopez, Jianlian
BENCH: B. Simmons
DROP: Boone

New Orleans Hornets (2 games)

Friday’s game at Portland was a microcosm of the Hornets’ season thus far. They played well in the first half, but were flat in the second half and lost by 15 points. They made 50% of their 3-pointers as a team, but David West and Tyson Chandler COMBINED for just 15 points and 9 rebounds in 63 minutes. With just 2 games this week, Chris Paul is the only must-start player for New Orleans.

START: Paul
BORDERLINE: D. West, Stojakovic
BENCH: T. Chandler, Posey

New York Knicks (4 games)

In case you missed the Knicks’ 138-point performance vs. the Warriors on Saturday, the numbers were absurd. David Lee posted a Dwight Howard-esque 37 points and 21 rebounds, Al Harrington dropped 36 points and 5 threes, and Chris Duhon dished out a franchise-record 22 assists. With Cuttino Mobley out indefinitely, that trio is going to be relied on heavily. If Nate Robinson misses more games with a groin injury, Tim Thomas will also be a solid starter this week.

START: Duhon, D. Lee, Harrington, W. Chandler
BORDERLINE: Nate, T. Thomas, Q-Rich
BENCH: Mobley

Oklahoma City Thunder (3 games)

Congrats if you drafted Russell Westbrook and hung onto him after his shaky start. He’s now the starting PG, so you can safely start him. Earl Watson played 30 minutes off the bench, but he’ll be very unreliable now that he’s no longer starting. Chris Wilcox has picked up his play recently, but don’t start him just yet. Nick Collison played just 7 minutes on Saturday, so drop him if you still have him.

START: Durant, Green, Westbrook
BENCH: Watson, Wilcox
DROP: Collison
WATCH: Wilkins

Orlando Magic (3 games)

Injuries have hit the Magic hard, as Mickael Pietrus is now out 3-5 weeks with a thumb injury, and Jameer Nelson and Keith Bogans are still shelved. Consider starting Anthony Johnson while Nelson it out, and keep an eye on JJ Redick and Courtney Lee to see if either emerges. In the meantime, expect Rashard Lewis & Turkoglu to put up better stats.

START: D. Howard, Lewis, Turkoglu
BORDERLINE: A. Johnson
BENCH: Nelson, Pietrus
WATCH: Redick, C. Lee

Philadelphia 76ers (4 games)

You’d expect Andre Iguodala & Elton Brand to help each other’s games, but both men are shooting career-lows from the field and the 76ers have lost 4 games in a row. Samuel Dalembert has been extremely quiet lately, so start him at your own risk. Louis Williams & Marreese Speights are starting to get more playing time, so keep an eye on them.

START: Brand, Iguodala, A. Miller, T. Young
BORDERLINE: Dalembert
WATCH: L. Williams, Speights

Phoenix Suns (3 games)

After voicing his frustrations with Terry Porter’s new offense, Amare responded with 25 points, 12 boards, 2 steals, and 2 blocks on Sunday before being ejected due to 2 technicals. Let’s hope he gets more touches going forward. Matt Barnes is averaging 12.6 points, 5.4 boards, 3.4 assists, 2.6 threes, .8 steals, and .8 blocks in his last 5 games, and it looks like he’s finally comfortable with his new team. As a result, Boris Diaw & Grant Hill should be dropped if you’re still hanging onto them.

START: Stoudemire, Nash, Shaq, Barnes
BORDERLINE: Bell
BENCH: Barbosa
DROP: Diaw, G. Hill

Portland Trail Blazers (4 games)

After going 11 straight games without scoring 20+ points, LaMarcus Aldridge dropped 27 against Rasheed Wallace, a player that many people are comparing him favorably to (’Sheed included). Greg Oden’s minutes have increased and he’s recorded 2 double-doubles in his last 3 games, so he looks like a safe start with 4 games. Rudy Fernandez & Travis Outlaw have been pretty quiet recently, which isn’t a good sign since Martell Webster is schedule to return soon. I dropped Outlaw today, and suggest you start looking for a replacement if you have him.

START: Roy, Aldridge, Blake, Oden
BORDERLINE: Przybilla, Fernandez
BENCH: Outlaw

Sacramento Kings (2 games)

The Kings have just 2 games this week, so John Salmons is the only solid starter. Francisco Garcia finally made his season debut last week, but he’ll likely be rusty for awhile. Kevin Martin could also return soon, but you should probably bench him until you see him play.

START: Salmons
BORDERLINE: B. Miller, Udrih, Hawes
BENCH: Kev-Mart, Garcia, Thompson

San Antonio Spurs (3 games)

Both Ginobili AND Tony Parker returned to action last week, so get them in your lineups. Roger Mason’s value takes a big hit and he’ll likely be very inconsistent now, but he’s still starting, so you might want to hang onto him a little while longer. The rookie George Hill played well in Parker’s absence, but he and Finley can safely be dropped now.

START: Duncan, T. Parker, Ginobili
BENCH: R. Mason
DROP: G. Hill, Finley

Toronto Raptors (3 games)

Chris Bosh finally came back to Earth on Sunday, scoring just 12 points. Of course, he was due for a sub-par performance, especially against the Lakers. Jermaine O’Neal missed his 3rd straight game, so check his status on Monday afternoon. Bargnani isn’t shooting as well as he was before, but he’s rebounding and blocking shots well.

START: Bosh, Calderon, A. Parker, Bargnani
BORDERLINE: J. O’Neal
BENCH: Moon

Utah Jazz (4 games)

Carlos Boozer is still out, but Deron Williams finally returned, dishing out 43 assists in 3 games. Kirilenko left Saturday’s game with an ankle injury, making him a borderline start this week. With all of Utah’s injuries, Paul Millsap has been superb lately. Make sure you start him this week. If Boozer and AK-47 are declared out for a couple more games, you may want to consider starting CJ Miles as well.

START: D. Williams, Okur, Millsap, R. Brewer
BORDERLINE: Kirilenko, CJ Miles
BENCH: Boozer

Washington Wizards (4 games)

Caron Butler was sensational last week, averaging 27 points, 6.7 boards, 5.7 dimes, 2.7 steals, and 1.7 threes per game. After a slow start, he’s close to being a Top 10 player. Antawn Jamison has also been spectacular, but those are the only 2 Wizards that you can rely on right now. Antonio Daniels returned from injury and had a decent game on Saturday, so consider replacing Nick Young with him. Andray Blatche had a monster game vs. the Warriors (who doesn’t these days?) and appears to be earning more minutes, so keep an eye on him.

START: C. Butler, Jamison
BORDERLINE: A. Daniels, Stevenson
BENCH: Arenas, McGee
DROP: N. Young
WATCH: Blatche

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