Evil’s Outlook: Week 7

Jose Juan Barea is fired up, and Rodney Stuckey could be moving into the starting lineup.

Evil’s Outlook goes around the league, team by team, and examines which players are hot and cold, and which players you should keep an eye on. The outlook for Week 6 suggests 96 players who are safe starts and 47 players who are borderline, so if your league is much smaller or larger, adjust accordingly. Listed first are the # of games played for each team, followed by 5 teams with poor and favorable schedules.

After that are my 3 Top Pickups for deep leagues and my Top 5 Fill-Ins for short-term help. Lastly, all 30 NBA teams are listed in alphabetical order. Ideally, you’ll be able to get a good feel of what’s going on around the league just by reading this, even if you didn’t watch a single game or look at any boxscores last week.

4 games: ATL, CHA, CLE, GS, HOU, LAL, MEM, MIN, OKC, ORL, SA, TOR
3 games: CHI, DAL, DET, IND, LAC, MIA, MIL, NJ, NO, NY, PHI, PHO, POR, SAC, UTA, WAS
2 games: BOS, DEN

5 Poor Schedules

1. Los Angeles Clippers (3 games – Orlando, @Portland, Houston)
2. Washington Wizards (3 games – Detroit, Boston, @Philadelphia)
3. Phoenix Suns (3 games – Milwaukee, @LA Lakers, Orlando)
4. Utah Jazz (3 games – @Minnesota, Portland, Orlando)
5. Boston Celtics (2 games – @Washington, New Orleans)

5 Favorable Schedules

1. Houston Rockets (4 games – @Memphis, Atlanta, @Golden State, @LA Clippers)
2. Oklahoma City (4 games – Golden State, Memphis, @Dallas, @San Antonio)
3. Los Angeles Lakers (4 games – @Sacramento, Phoenix, Sacramento, Minnesota)
4. Cleveland Cavaliers (4 games – Toronto, @Philadelphia, Philadelphia, @Atlanta)
5. Milwaukee Bucks (3 games – @Phoenix, @Golden State, Indiana)

Top 3 Pickups

1. Rodney Stuckey (Pistons)

I cited Stuckey as a top “fill-in” pickup last week, but he could be moving into the starting lineup after Sunday’s debacle. Not only did Detroit lose to a depleted Knicks team, but they were outscored 29-12 in the 1st quarter. As a result, Michael Curry is considering lineup changes, and Stuckey is the likely candidate to be promoted. If Kwame Brown is removed from the starting lineup and Allen Iverson slides over to shooting guard, Rodney can play PG with 4 very talented players. In his last 6 contests, he’s averaging 12 points, 6.5 assists, and 1.7 steals, but he’s done that in just 24.8 minutes per game. If he starts and gets 28-30 minutes of action, his value would soar. Stuckey is still available in many leagues, so if you need a PG, I suggest picking him up before he has a big game.

2. Francisco Garcia (Kings)

Garcia is still still working himself into shape, but if he’s available in your league, now is the time to pick him up. His minutes have been limited thus far, but he’s picked up a steal or block in every game, and more points will come once his 3-point shot starts falling. It looks like John Salmons is the clear-cut starter right now, but Garcia could be inserted into the lineup if Kevin Martin misses more games (he left Saturday’s game with soreness in his ankle). When healthy, ‘Cisco is a solid all-around contributor, so grab him before he gets hot.

3. Jose Juan Barea (Mavericks)

Jose Juan Barea has started the past 2 games for Dallas, averaging 20 points and 4 assists in 2 victories. He’s been a major sparkplug for them, and he’s clearly earned more minutes going forward. His solid play has probably surprised many people around the league, but Barea has excelled at every level. As a college senior, he was 3rd in the nation in assists and was named a Honorable Mention All-American. In the 2007 Vegas Summer League, J.J. dominated to the tune of 14.4 points, 6.2 assists, and just 1.4 turnovers in 25.6 minutes per game. He played just 7 games in the D-League last season, but he dropped back-to-back 40 point games and had his number retired! Barea is also a key member of the Puerto Rican national team, and the guy can clearly play. However, I’m a little concerned about his long-term value, because I don’t think he’ll get as many minutes and shot attempts once Josh Howard returns from injury.

Top 5 Fill-Ins

My “Top 3 Pickups” are guys who have the potential to provide solid long-term help for fantasy teams, but my “Top 5 Fill-Ins” are guys who you should consider picking up if you need short-term help in certain categories. Even in deep leagues, most of these players will usually fly under the radar, but they could fill-in quite nicely.

for Boards & Blocks: Chris Andersen (Nuggets) and Andray Blatche (Wizards)

Since returning from his rib injury, Andersen has averaged 5.3 boards and 2.7 blocks in just 16.8 minutes per game. While it’s tough to rely on anyone playing less than 20 minutes per game, Andersen makes the most of his minutes. And since Kenyon Martin missed the last game with a lingering wrist injury and Carmelo is also ailing, the Birdman could easily get more playing time in the future. In most Roto leagues, there’s usually several teams bunched together in the blocks category, making Andersen an excellent spot starter if you want to move up the rankings. The Nugz have 4 games each in weeks 8-10, so you should pick him up before others realize this.

Blatche was a major disappointment to start the season, but the coaching change seems to have rejuvenated him. The talented big man flashed his abilities on Friday night, when he scored 18 points, grabbed 12 rebounds (5 offensive) and 2 steals, and made 1 three vs. the Lakers. He followed that up with 14 points, 4 boards, and a three on Saturday, and seems to be earning more minutes. He’ll likely be inconsistent all season long, but now is a good time to pick him up.

for Boards & Threes: Matt Bonner (Spurs)

Bonner was recently moved into the Spurs’ starting lineup, and he’s responded by averaging 12.5 points, 7 rebounds, and 1.8 threes on 20-for-32 FG shooting in his last 4 games. While he can’t maintain that excellent FG%, he is a very good 3-point shooter and San Antonio likes his ability to lure opposing defenses away from the basket a la Robert Horry. Give him a look if you need threes, because if he hangs onto the starting gig, he could even have some long-term value.

for Assists & Threes: Daniel Gibson (Cavaliers)

In 15 November games, Gibson shot just 33% from the field and 23% from beyond the arc. However, Mike Brown continued to give him big minutes, and it looks like he’s finally starting to heat up. Gibson has made 6-of-12 threes and shot 15-24 overall in his last 3 games, and he’s also dished out 11 assists and grabbed 4 steals in those games. If you need a backup PG, consider picking him up.

for Steals & Assists: Kyle Lowry (Grizzlies)

Lowry has replaced Mike Conley as the Grizzlies’ starting point guard, so if you’re desperate for a PG, consider picking him up. Both men are still in a time-share, but Lowry will get more assist opportunities as the starter, and the defensive-minded player is capable of grabbing lots of steals. And while Kyle won’t make many threes, he’s a decent rebounder and shot-blocker for his size.

Atlanta Hawks (4 games)

Josh Smith only had 1 block on Saturday, but it was a big one. J-Smoov became the youngest player in NBA history to reach 800 blocks, just a day after his 23rd birthday. Mike Bibby has scored 20+ points in 4 of his last 5 games and already has 9 games with 3+ threes. Al Horford missed Saturday’s game with a sprained ankle, so check his status on Monday afternoon.

START: J. Johnson, J-Smoov, Bibby, M. Williams
BORDERLINE: Horford

Boston Celtics (2 games)

The Celtics narrowly escaped with a win in Indiana on Sunday, and have now won 12 in a row. They only have 2 games this week, so all of their guys are borderline starters. Ray Allen is back to his old self, with 18 treys in his last 4 games. KG has recorded 3 straight double-doubles, so let’s hope that he can keep that streak going.

BORDERLINE: Garnett, Pierce, R. Allen, Rondo
BENCH: Perkins

Charlotte Bobcats (4 games)

In 4 games last week, Felton averaged a rock solid 14 points, 9.8 assists, and 1.5 steals. Gerald Wallace has been awful lately, scoring just 7 points on 1-for-13 shooting in his last 2 games. It sounds like he may miss a game or two this week for personal reasons, so you may want to bench him. Where did Emeka Okafor’s offense come from? The big man is averaging 19.3 points in his last 4 games, but you can’t expect it to last.

START: J-Rich, Felton, Okafor
BORDERLINE: G. Wallace, Augustin

Chicago Bulls (3 games)

Ben Gordon is still lighting it up, but his 3.4 rebounds and 3.7 assists are surprising career-highs. In last week’s outlook, I said that “Luol Deng’s stats should improve soon,” and after scoring 47 points and grabbing 4 steals in his last 2 games, he finally looks like a safe start. Larry Hughes has made 12 treys in his last 4 games, but it will be hard to rely on him now that he’s coming off the bench.

START: D. Rose, B. Gordon, Gooden, Deng
BORDERLINE: Hughes
BENCH: Ty Thomas, Nocioni

Cleveland Cavaliers (4 games)

The Cavs have won 16 of their last 17 games and limited 5 of their last 6 opponents to 85 points or less. Let’s hope that teams give them more of a challenge so LeBron plays more minutes. In his last 4 games, Big Z has pulled down 46 boards in just 104 total minutes. Cleveland has a favorable schedule this week, so if you pick up Gibson, consider starting him.

START: LeBron, Big Z, Mo Williams, D. West, B. Wallace
BORDERLINE: Varejao, Gibson

Dallas Mavericks (3 games)

After a slow start, the Mavs have suddenly won 9 of their last 10 games. Did you know that Kidd is averaging a career-high 2.7 steals at the age of 35? Josh Howard has now missed 8 games in a row, and I’m guessing that 90% of the people who drafted him in ‘08 will pass on him in ‘09. As long as Barea continues to start, you’ve got to consider playing him.

START: Dirk, Kidd, Terry
BORDERLINE: J. Howard, Barea
BENCH: Dampier

Denver Nuggets (2 games)

True to his word, Carmelo didn’t miss a game, but his elbow injury continues to bother him. Nene had a whopping 5 steals on Saturday, and is now easily the leading thief among centers. Kenyon Martin missed Saturday’s game with a sprained wrist, so make sure he’s on your bench for week 7.

BORDERLINE: Anthony, Billups, Nene
BENCH: K-Mart, JR Smith, Kleiza, Andersen

Detroit Pistons (3 games)

The Pistons have lost 6 of their last 10 games, and Michael Curry has said that changes are coming. I said that Rasheed’s monster rebounding numbers were a mirage a few weeks ago, and sure enough, he’s averaging just 5 rebounds in his last 6 games. Antonio McDyess is going to re-join the Pistons this week, which is bad news for Maxiell and Amir, who did not seize the opportunity in his absence.

START: Iverson, Hamilton, Prince, R. Wallace
BORDERLINE: Stuckey

Golden St. Warriors (4 games)

The struggling Warriors have lost 9 games in a row, allowing an average of 125.3 points to their last 7 opponents. Corey Maggette is getting his numbers, but if you ask me, he’s the biggest reason for their woes. Andris Biedrins has just 1 double-digit rebound game in his last 8 games, but he’ll turn it around. Azubuike returned from a foot injury to score 12 points on Saturday, but his value is now dependent on the health of others. Stephen Jackson had an MRI on his non-shooting hand, so stay tuned for the results.

START: Biedrins, S. Jackson, Crawford, Maggette
BORDERLINE: Azubuike
BENCH: CJ Watson
WATCH: A. Randolph, B. Wright, Morrow

Houston Rockets (4 games)

With McGrady out 3 weeks to rehab his knee, I’m sure some of you are tempted to drop him, but you should only consider this if you’re in a very shallow league with limited bench spots. Shane Battier has been starting in his absence, and is a nice pickup if you need threes. Rafer Alston has made 13 treys and grabbed 9 steals in his last 4 games, so make sure he’s active. Luther Head has done very little since erupting for 21 points a week ago, so drop him if you picked him up.

START: Yao, Artest, Alston, Battier, Scola
BORDERLINE: Landry, Brooks
BENCH: T-Mac
DROP: Head

Indiana Pacers (3 games)

Danny Granger is just 9-for-28 from the field in his last 2 games, and I wonder if the absence of Dunleavy is hurting his FG%. TJ Ford made his 14th three on Sunday, and is now just 1 away from tying last year’s total. Marquis Daniels scored 26 points in a team-high 50 minutes on Sunday, ensuring that he still has plenty of value. Dunleavy is going to test his knee soon, but he’s still a long ways away from returning.

START: Granger, Ford, Murphy
BORDERLINE: M. Daniels
BENCH: Dunleavy, Nesterovic, Foster, Jack

L.A. Clippers (3 games)

The Clippers have a very tough schedule this week, so I suggest erring on the side of caution with Thornton and Gordon. On behalf of Zach Randolph and Marcus Camby owners, I’d like to wish Chris Kaman an extended stay in street clothes. Randolph is averaging 23.8 points and 9.6 boards in his last 5 games, while Camby has posted 13.4 boards and 4.4 blocks. Eric Gordon is struggling with his shot, but his ability to block shots (9 in his last 7 games) is a pleasant surprise.

START: B. Davis, Camby, Z. Randolph
BORDERLINE: Thornton
BENCH: Kaman, E. Gordon

L.A. Lakers (4 games)

The Lakers have a favorable schedule again this week, so consider starting most of them. Lamar Odom has been terrible, but you have to assume that a big game is right around the corner. Most people avoid Radmanovic, but I spot started him last week and he responded with 46 points and 11 threes on 17-29 shooting. Of course, this probably means Vladimir will go in a mini-slump this week, so be careful.

START: Kobe, P. Gasol, Bynum, Ariza, Fisher
BORDERLINE: Odom, Radmanovic

Memphis Grizzlies (4 games)

I’m not sure how long it will last, but Kyle Lowry and Darko are now starting instead of Mike Conley and Marc Gasol. Gasol still managed to drop 21 points, 7 boards, and 2 blocks on Saturday, so consider starting him if you need a center. Rudy Gay followed up a 25 point, 3 trey performance on Friday with a 6 point dud on Saturday, but I told you his struggles were going to linger.

START: Gay, Mayo
BORDERLINE: M. Gasol, Lowry
BENCH: Conley
WATCH: Darko, Warrick

Miami Heat (3 games)

The only guard to average 2+ steals and 1.5+ blocks for a full season was Jordan in ‘86-87 and ‘87-88 (Wade is currently averaging 2.4 steals and 1.8 blocks per game). Marion is averaging 17 points, 11.7 boards, 2 steals, and 2 blocks in his last 3 games, but he also got to face the Thunder and Warriors. Beasley got poked in the eye on Saturday, but his minutes have been down and he’s a borderline starter right now. Joel Anthony is now starting at center and has blocked 9 shots in his last 4 games, so keep an eye on him.

START: Wade, Marion, Haslem, Chalmers
BORDERLINE: Beasley
BENCH: Cook
WATCH: J. Anthony

Milwaukee Bucks (3 games)

The Bucks got destroyed by the Lakers on Sunday, and Michael Redd & Richard Jefferson were shut down completely, combining for 6 fouls, 4 turnovers, and just 5 points. It can’t get any worse than that, especially since they get to face the Warriors this week. Luke Ridnour has seemingly taken hold of the starting PG position, dishing out 20 assists to 6 turnovers and adding 7 steals in his last 3 games, while receiving more playing time than Sessions. Malik Allen left Sunday’s game with a rib injury, so keep an eye on Villanueva and Mbah a Moute if they’re available.

START: Redd, R. Jefferson, Bogut
BORDERLINE: Ridnour, Villanueva
BENCH: Sessions, Mbah a Moute

Minnesota Timberwolves (4 games)

Mike Miller missed Friday’s game with an ankle injury, making him a questionable start for week 7. Randy Foye has gone to the line 22 times in his last 2 games, making the career 85% FT shooter even more valuable. Kevin Love has posted 3 double-doubles in his last 5 games, so congrats if you hung onto him after his rocky start.

START: A. Jefferson, Foye, Love
BORDERLINE: M. Miller, Gomes
BENCH: Telfair

New Jersey Nets (3 games)

The Nets have won 7 of their last 10 games and are now ranked 6th in the East. Vince Carter has averaged just 16 points in his last 3 games, meaning a big scoring outburst is right around the corner. Did you know that Brook Lopez is averaging 12.6 points, 9 boards, and 2.1 blocks in 12 games as a starter? Start him this week and hope that Josh Boone’s impending return doesn’t hurt him too much.

START: Harris, V. Carter, B. Lopez
BORDERLINE: Jianlian
BENCH: B. Simmons

New Orleans Hornets (3 games)

Peja Stojakovic scored a season-high 24 points on Wednesday and has now made 17 treys in his last 4 games. Tyson Chandler could muster just 2 points, 5 boards, 0 blocks, and 3 fouls vs. the lowly Grizzlies on Saturday, and I’m pretty fed up with him as this point. He has just 1 double-double in his last 10 games after posting 38 of them last season.

START: Paul, D. West, Stojakovic
BORDERLINE: T. Chandler
BENCH: Posey

New York Knicks (3 games)

Way back in July, I claimed that Chris Duhon was going to be a Top 100 fantasy player this year, and he’s been all that and more. Nate Robinson tweaked his groin injury and missed Saturday’s game, so you should probably bench him this week. Al Harrington’s rebounds have fallen back to “normal” levels, but he’s made 16 treys in his last 5 games and is a must-start right now. It sounds like Cuttino Mobley is going to retire due to his heart ailment, so get ready to replace him.

START: Duhon, D. Lee, Harrington, W. Chandler
BORDERLINE: Q-Rich
BENCH: Nate, T. Thomas
DROP: Mobley (wait a couple days if you can)

Oklahoma City Thunder (4 games)

Hopefully you picked up Russell Westbrook after I named him my #1 pickup last week, because he exploded for a career-high 30 points on Saturday and is only going to get better. Despite coming off the bench, Earl Watson has dished out 33 assists in his last 4 games. The Thunder have a very favorable schedule this week, so give him a start but don’t expect much consistency. Just when it looked like Chris Wilcox was starting to turn things around, he put up a 2 point, 1 rebound, 4 foul stinker.

START: Durant, Green, Westbrook, Watson
BORDERLINE: Wilcox
WATCH: Collison

Orlando Magic (4 games)

Dwight Howard is averaging a monster 17.4 boards and 4.6 blocks in his last 5 games, but he scored just 14 points against Boston’s tenacious D. Courtney Lee scored 19 points and made 3 treys on Wednesday, but Keith Bogans returned from injury on Friday, thus squashing any potential value that Lee & Redick had. Jameer Nelson also returned on Friday to dish out 7 assists and grab 4 steals, so it looks like he’s a safe start this week. Rashard Lewis currently leads the league with 51 threes made, but he’s shooting just 35.9% from beyond the arc (his worst 3P% in 6 years).

START: D. Howard, Lewis, Turkoglu, J. Nelson
BENCH: Pietrus
DROP: A. Johnson, C. Lee
WATCH: Bogans

Philadelphia 76ers (3 games)

Elton Brand has missed 2 games in a row with a hamstring injury, and isn’t sure if he’ll be able to play on Wednesday, making him a risky start. Even with Brand out, Samuel Dalembert did very little, and if you haven’t replaced him yet it’s something you should consider. Thaddeus Young averaged just 9.5 points in 4 games last week, but he had a 5 steal game and two 8 rebound games. Louis Williams is finally playing well, so keep an eye on him.

START: Iguodala, A. Miller
BORDERLINE: Brand, T. Young
BENCH: Dalembert
WATCH: L. Williams

Phoenix Suns (3 games)

Before edging past the Jazz on Saturday, the Suns had lost 4 games in a row. They have tough matchups this week vs. the Lakers and Magic, and it will be especially interesting to see how Shaq fares against his former team and the Man-Beast. Grant Hill is starting now, but Barnes is still putting up better numbers. Barbosa scored 25 points on Saturday, but he’s still too inconsistent to start.

START: Stoudemire, Nash, Shaq
BORDERLINE: Barnes
BENCH: Bell, Barbosa

Portland Trail Blazers (3 games)

How solid has Steve Blake been? In his last 10 games, the veteran PG is averaging 13.7 points, 4.7 assists, 2.6 threes, and 1.1 steals, and the Blazers have won 9 of their last 11 games. Are people still questioning my decision to make him the All-White American team starter over Kirk Hinrich? Greg Oden is starting to play better and Martell Webster made his season debut on Sunday, so it looks like it’s time to drop Przybilla and Outlaw. Rudy Fernandez isn’t as reliable as he was at the beginning of the season, but he’s still having big games.

START: Roy, Aldridge, Oden
BORDERLINE: Blake, Fernandez
DROP: Outlaw, Przybilla

Sacramento Kings (3 games)

The Kings have lost 8 games in a row and have upcoming back-to-back games with the Lakers. Kevin Martin left Saturday’s game with a sore ankle and is listed as day-to-day, which is a major bummer for Kev-Mart owners. Brad Miller is averaging just 8.3 points and 6.8 rebounds in his last 4 games, so consider benching him this week. While Garcia is one of my top pickups this week, I don’t suggest starting him just yet.

START: Salmons, Udrih
BORDERLINE: Kev-Mart, B. Miller, Hawes
BENCH: Garcia, Thompson

San Antonio Spurs (4 games)

You want to see an efficient line? Tim Duncan dropped 20 points (7-10 FG), 13 rebounds, and 5 assists in just 20 minutes vs. the Warriors on Saturday. It looks like Tony Parker is back up to speed, and Ginobili can’t be far behind. If you need threes, consider starting Mason and/or Bonner this week.

START: Duncan, T. Parker, Ginobili
BORDERLINE: R. Mason, Bonner

Toronto Raptors (4 games)

After making just 19 threes in his first 14 games, Jose Calderon has dropped 8 treys in his last 3 contests, enhancing his value quite a bit. Jermaine O’Neal returned from his ankle injury and exploded for 24 points, 8 boards, and 6 blocks on Sunday, so start him with confidence this week. I thought that the coaching change might result in more minutes for Jamario Moon, but instead his minutes have plummeted (just 13.7 mpg in his last 3 games), so feel free to drop him. Jason Kapono has been getting more burn however, so keep an eye on him.

START: Bosh, Calderon, J. O’Neal, A. Parker
BORDERLINE: Bargnani
DROP: Moon
WATCH: Kapono

Utah Jazz (3 games)

Deron Williams had 15 points and 15 assists on Saturday and is improving slowly but surely. Unfortunately, Boozer is still sidelined, but he should be back soon. Paul Millsap has been an absolute beast in his place, so start him 1 more time before Carlos returns. AK-47 is back, so get him in your lineup if you need a forward. CJ Miles erupted for 20 points and 4 treys on Saturday, but he’s a borderline option at best.

START: D. Williams, Okur, Millsap, Kirilenko
BORDERLINE: R. Brewer, CJ Miles
BENCH: Boozer

Washington Wizards (3 games)

Things don’t get any easier for the Wizards this week, as they have to face both the Celtics and Pistons. Butler and Jamison are carrying this team as best they can right now, but it’s not enough on most nights. Andray Blatche is getting consistent minutes and producing right now, so pick him up if you need a big man. In his last 4 games, JaVale McGee has blocked 10 shots in just 62 minutes, but he needs more playing time to rely on him.

START: C. Butler, Jamison
BENCH: Arenas, A. Daniels, Stevenson, Blatche, McGee

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