Evil’s Outlook: Week 9

Lou Williams is a happy man after scoring a career-high 26 points on Friday. Can he help out your fantasy team?

Evil’s Outlook goes around the league, team by team, and examines which players are hot and cold, and which players you should keep an eye on. The outlook for Week 9 suggests 81 players who are safe starts and 47 players who are borderline, so if your league is much smaller or larger, adjust accordingly. Listed first are the # of games played for each team, followed by 5 teams with poor and favorable schedules.

After that are my 3 Top Pickups for deep leagues and my Top 5 Fill-Ins for short-term help. Lastly, all 30 NBA teams are listed in alphabetical order. Ideally, you’ll be able to get a good feel of what’s going on around the league just by reading this, even if you didn’t watch a single game or look at any boxscores last week.

4 games: BOS, DAL, DEN, GS, HOU, LAL, MEM, NJ, NOR, POR, SA
3 games: CHA, CHI, CLE, DET, IND, MIA, MIN, OKC, ORL, SAC, TOR, UTA, WAS
2 games: ATL, LAC, MIL, NY, PHI
1 game: PHO

5 Poor Schedules

1. Phoenix Suns (1 game - San Antonio)
2. Philadelphia 76ers (2 games - @Boston, @Denver)
3. Milwaukee Bucks (2 games - Utah, Detroit)
4. Sacramento Kings (3 games - @San Antonio, Toronto, Boston)
5. Golden State Warriors (4 games - @Orlando, @Miami, Boston, @LA Lakers)

5 Favorable Schedules

1. Boston Celtics (4 games - Philadelphia, @LA Lakers, @Golden St. Warriors, @Sacramento)
2. San Antonio Spurs (4 games - Sacramento, Minnesota, @Phoenix, Memphis)
3. Orlando Magic (3 games - Golden State, New Orleans, @Minnesota)
4. Charlotte Bobcats (3 games - Washington, @New Jersey, New Jersey)
5. Miami Heat (3 games - Golden State, Chicago, @Cleveland)

Top 3 Pickups

1. Mike James (Wizards)

It looks like Washington has finally found a reliable 3rd scoring option to take some pressure off of Butler and Jamison. Since moving into the starting lineup, James has averaged 36.3 minutes, 16.3 points, 5.7 rebounds, 3 assists, 2.3 threes, and 1.7 steals per game. The veteran will be an excellent source of treys, and he’s a career 80% shooter from the line. Some people are concerned that he’ll lose minutes when Arenas returns, but since Washington has a 4-21 record, there’s no guarantee that Gilbert will even return this season. The Wizards play a lot of games over the next couple of months, so James can help out your squad quite a bit.

2. Lou Williams (76ers)

After a terrible November in which he averaged just 8 points on 33% FG shooting, Lou Williams now looks like a solid starter. The injury to Elton Brand has opened up more shot attempts, and new coach Tony DiLeo is giving the young guard more playing time. In his last 4 games, Williams is averaging 20.8 points, 2.8 assists, 1.5 threes, and 1.3 steals on 48.3% shooting from the field. He’s still coming off the bench, but starter Willie Green left Saturday’s game with a sprained ankle. The 22-year old has plenty of potential, but he’s ready to be a fantasy force right now.

3. Marreese Speights (76ers)

Speights should also be picked up in deep leagues due to the uncertainty of Elton Brand’s shoulder injury. He’ll try to return in a month, but a doctor said there’s a 50/50 chance he could dislocate it again when he comes back. If that happens, Brand might need surgery and could be out the rest of the season. Samuel Dalembert is expected to pick up some of the slack, but Speights has been just as good. In his last 3 games, the rookie is averaging 13.7 points, 4.7 boards, and 2 blocks in just 22 minutes. If he continues to earn more playing time and Brand is out for an extended period, Speights could put up big numbers.

Top 5 Fill-Ins

My “Top 3 Pickups” are guys who have the potential to provide solid long-term help for fantasy teams, but my “Top 5 Fill-Ins” are guys who you should consider picking up if you need short-term help in certain categories. Even in deep leagues, most of these players will usually fly under the radar, but they could fill-in quite nicely.

for Boards & Threes: Andres Nocioni (Bulls) and James Posey (Hornets)

With Drew Gooden nursing an ankle injury and Tyrus Thomas out with a concussion, Nocioni has stepped up and played big minutes recently. In his last 3 games, Andres is averaging 36.7 minutes, 17.7 points, 6 rebounds, and 2.7 threes on 20-39 shooting from the field. With Gooden out for at least another week, ‘Noce looks like a solid short-term pickup.

The Hornets have won 4 games in a row, and Posey is a big reason why. In his last 4 games, the veteran is averaging 29.8 minutes, 15.5 points, 6.3 boards, and 3 treys on 68.8% FG shooting. He’s gotten a boost in playing time due to Peja’s bad back, and he’ll be a decent option until Stojakovic returns.

for Assists & Threes: Marco Belinelli (Warriors)

With Stephen Jackson ailing, Belinelli finally got a chance to play big minutes this season and he’s made the most of it. In his last 4 games, Marco is averaging 36.5 minutes, 20 points, 5 assists, 3 treys, and 1.5 steals on 52.5% shooting. He’s doing an excellent job of driving and kicking, and has proven that he’s more than just a shooter. Of course, his minutes are going to drop when Capt. Jack comes back, but Belinelli is a great short-term pickup.

for Points & Threes: Rashad McCants (Timberwolves)

Mike Miller re-injured the same ankle that caused him to miss 4 games earlier this month, so there’s a good chance that he’ll be out this week. If that’s the case, Rashad McCants should get a lot of playing time. He played 39 minutes on Saturday and scored 16 points, to go along with 4 assists, 1 steal, and 1 trey. In 24 starts last season, he averaged 15.3 points and 1.7 threes, and you can expect similar stats as long as Miller is out.

for Boards & Blocks: Joel Anthony (Heat)

Anthony was inserted into Miami’s starting lineup 10 games ago, but he didn’t start getting 30+ minutes until recently. In his last 4 games, the Canadian is averaging 33.5 minutes, 8.3 rebounds, 2.75 blocks, and 3.75 fouls. If you need another center, consider picking him up.

Atlanta Hawks (2 games)

The Hawks have won 5 of their last 6 games, including victories over Cleveland and Detroit and a narrow 3-point loss to Boston, proving that they’re legit. Josh Smith’s blocks have been down since he returned from his ankle injury (which he suffered attempting to block to a shot). With only 2 games this week, weigh your options carefully.

START: J. Johnson
BORDERLINE: J-Smoov, Bibby, Horford
BENCH: M. Williams

Boston Celtics (4 games)

The Celtics are rolling and have a favorable schedule this week. The youngsters in particular are playing extremely well. In their last 5 games, Rajon Rondo is averaging 16 points, 7.4 assists, and 2.8 steals, while Kendrick Perkins is averaging 13.8 points, 11.4 boards, and 2.4 blocks.

START: Garnett, Pierce, R. Allen, Rondo, Perkins

Charlotte Bobcats (3 games)

Did you pickup Diaw after the trade? He’s played 5 games for his new team, and is averaging 16.8 points, 7.8 boards, 4.2 assists, and 1.4 threes on 52.9% FG shooting. His points and threes will decline, but he’s now a must-start player. DJ Augustin played just 20 minutes on Saturday, but he was limited by a sprained ankle. The Bobcats have a favorable schedule this week, so get them in your lineup.

START: Diaw, G. Wallace, Felton, Okafor
BORDERLINE: Augustin, Bell

Chicago Bulls (3 games)

Drew Gooden is out with a sprained ankle, so make sure he’s on your bench. Nocioni is a solid start in his absence, but Noah and Ty Thomas (concussion) are still risky plays. Luol Deng followed up a very solid game vs. the Celtics with a stinker vs. the Jazz. If he doesn’t start playing with more consistency, he might lose minutes to Thabo Sefolosha.

START: D. Rose, B. Gordon, Nocioni
BORDERLINE: Deng, Noah, Ty Thomas
BENCH: Gooden, Hughes
WATCH: Sefolosha

Cleveland Cavaliers (3 games)

Has LeBron finally become a complete fantasy player? He’s made 84% of his free throws in December and is now at 79.6% FT for the season. Big Z has returned from his ankle injury, making Varejao and Wallace fringe options once again. Daniel Gibson returned from his toe injury on Sunday, but Delonte West continues to put up big numbers: 17.6 points, 4 assists, 2.2 steals, and 1.4 treys in his last 5 games.

START: LeBron, Big Z, Mo Williams, D. West
BENCH: Varejao, B. Wallace

Dallas Mavericks (4 games)

Josh Howard is back in the starting lineup, but he’s grabbed just 2 rebounds in his last 79 minutes played! His return has killed Jose Juan Barea’s value, but Jason Terry continues to put up monster numbers. Devean George has also been starting, so keep an eye on him. Former Clipper James Singleton exploded for 13 boards, 2 steals, and 3 blocks on Sunday, but the chances of him averaging 28+ minutes seem slim.

START: Dirk, Kidd, Terry, J. Howard
BENCH: Dampier
WATCH: Singleton, George
DROP: Barea

Denver Nuggets (4 games)

Denver has lost 3 games in a row, but they still boast a 17-10 record. Nene broke out of a mini-slump with 20 points, 15 boards, and 2 blocks on Saturday, so I suggest starting him this week. Carmelo is just 8-for-27 in his last 2 games, but you’ve got to keep him active. JR Smith is finally playing with some consistency (averaging 19 points and 3 threes in his last 4 games), rewarding those of you who stuck with him.

START: Anthony, Billups, Nene, K-Mart, JR Smith
BORDERLINE: Andersen
WATCH: Kleiza

Detroit Pistons (3 games)

The Pistons have scored 100+ points just 2 times in their last 10 games (4-6 record). Allen Iverson is still getting his numbers, but his new coach and teammates are holding him accountable for his mistakes, and he’s responded with a bad attitude. Stuckey has been rock solid, but things don’t seem right in Detroit, and it could get worse.

START: Iverson, Stuckey, R. Wallace, Hamilton
BORDERLINE: Prince
WATCH: McDyess

Golden St. Warriors (4 games)

It took a 50-point game from Jamal Crawford for the Warriors to break out of their 5 game losing streak. Stephen Jackson and Corey Maggette are still out, so make sure they’re on your bench. Belinelli and Azubuike have played well in their absence, so consider starting them this week. Golden State plays 4 times in week 9, but they have to face the Celtics, Lakers, Magic, and Heat.

START: Biedrins, Crawford, Belinelli
BORDERLINE: Azubuike, Turiaf
BENCH: S. Jackson, Maggette
WATCH: B. Wright, CJ Watson

Houston Rockets (4 games)

The Rockets still aren’t healthy, but the team is starting to gel. Tracy McGrady is averaging 20.8 points, 7.2 boards, 7 assists, 2 threes, and 1.2 steals in his last 5 games, and Ron Artest has played well since taking over as their 6th man. Aaron Brooks has played well in Alston’s absence, but Rafer is scheduled to return this week.

START: Yao, T-Mac, Artest
BORDERLINE: Battier, Scola, Brooks
BENCH: Alston

Indiana Pacers (3 games)

Indy has won 3 of their last 4 games, which is impressive because they’ve been short-handed recently. Granger, Murphy, and Daniels have missed the past 2 games with the flu, but I imagine they’ll be back soon. Jarrett Jack has played very well recently, so consider starting him this week. Roy Hibbert is now starting in place of Nesterovic, so keep an eye on him.

START: Granger, Ford
BORDERLINE: Murphy, M. Daniels, Jack, Foster
BENCH: Dunleavy
WATCH: Hibbert
DROP: Nesterovic

L.A. Clippers (2 games)

After a so-so November, Marcus Camby has been brilliant in December: 12.2 points, 14.8 rebounds, 1.4 steals, 3.2 blocks, and 51.9% FG. Just remember that Chris Kaman will eventually return and hurt his numbers. In his last 5 games, Baron Davis is just 5-for-30 from beyond the arc (16.7%), so you might want to bench him this week.

START: Camby
BORDERLINE: B. Davis, Z. Randolph
BENCH: Kaman, Thornton, E. Gordon

L.A. Lakers (4 games)

Things aren’t so rosy for the Lakers anymore, as they’ve lost 2 games in a row and Jordan Farmar might need surgery on his left knee. Fisher and Odom should get more playing time in his absence, and Sasha Vujacic and Luke Walton should also be watched. Andrew Bynum has TOTALED just 7 points, 7 boards, and 0 blocks in his last 2 games, so you may want to inquire about his availability.

START: Kobe, P. Gasol, Bynum, Fisher
BORDERLINE: Odom, Ariza
BENCH: Radmanovic
WATCH: Vujacic, Walton

Memphis Grizzlies (4 games)

Rudy Gay is starting to play a little better, so hopefully he can keep it up. OJ Mayo scored just 7 points on Friday, the first game of his career where he didn’t score in double-digits. He’ll bounce back this week. Darko has swatted 14 shots in his last 5 games and Marc Gasol has 8 rejections in his last 3 games, but you should only consider starting them if you need blocked shots.

START: Gay, Mayo
BORDERLINE: M. Gasol, Darko
BENCH: Conley, Lowry

Miami Heat (3 games)

Dwyane Wade busted out of a mini-slump by scoring 78 points and blocking 4 shots in his last 2 games (wins over the Lakers and Nets). The Heat get to face the Warriors and a Gooden-less Bulls team this week, so I’m predicting that Shawn Marion will finally put up some big numbers. Joel Anthony is now more valuable than Michael Beasley, which means that the rookie should be benched until further notice.

START: Wade, Marion, Chalmers
BORDERLINE: Haslem, J. Anthony
BENCH: Beasley, Cook

Milwaukee Bucks (2 games)

The Bucks have a tough schedule this week (2 games against Utah and Detroit), so I suggest benching ALL of them. However, I’d like to give Milwaukee and Scott Skiles some props. Their defense has been rock solid and their 13-16 record isn’t bad at all considering Redd missed so many games and Bogut hasn’t played up to his abilities.

BENCH: Redd, R. Jefferson, Bogut, Ridnour, Villanueva, Mbah a Moute, Sessions

Minnesota Timberwolves (3 games)

Al Jefferson dropped 34 points, 13 boards, and 3 blocks vs. Yao on Saturday, but his team is struggling big time. Minnesota has lost 12 games in a row, and Mike Miller just sprained the same ankle that caused him to miss 4 games earlier this month. Rashad McCants should put up decent numbers in his absence, so start him if you need a scorer.

START: A. Jefferson, Foye
BORDERLINE: McCants, C. Smith
BENCH: M. Miller, Gomes, Love

New Jersey Nets (4 games)

Devin Harris dropped 41 points, 13 dimes, 5 threes, and 3 steals on his former team on Friday, and his numbers just keep getting better and better. Brook Lopez had a monster game of his own with 22 points, 13 boards, and 5 blocks on Saturday. Just when it looked like Bobby Simmons was starting to come around, he put up 3 stinkers in a row and missed Saturday’s game. Forget about him and watch rookie Ryan Anderson instead.

START: Harris, V. Carter, B. Lopez
BENCH: Jianlian
DROP: B. Simmons
WATCH: R. Anderson

New Orleans Hornets (4 games)

Chris Paul broke Alvin Robertson’s NBA record with a steal in 106 consecutive games on Wednesday, and followed that up with 34 points and 8 steals on Saturday (fantasy MVP once again?). Peja Stojakovic has missed 2 games in a row due to back spasms, so you probably want to bench him this week. As a result, James Posey is relevant once again and worth consideration. Also keep an eye on Rasual Butler if Peja is out for an extended period.

START: Paul, D. West
BORDERLINE: T. Chandler, Posey
BENCH: Stojakovic
WATCH: R. Butler

New York Knicks (2 games)

The Knicks have lost 4 games in a row, but at least Nate Robinson is back. The former football star is averaging 26 points in his last 4 games and should be a stud the rest of the way. However, Al Harrington has fallen back to Earth since his return. Q-Rich followed up a 2 point, 1-for-10 performance on Friday with 29 points and 5 treys on Sunday (good luck guessing in daily leagues).

BORDERLINE: Duhon, D. Lee, Nate
BENCH: Harrington, Q-Rich, W. Chandler

Oklahoma City Thunder (3 games)

Kevin Durant is hot, averaging 25 points, 7.8 rebounds, 2.4 steals, 1.4 threes, and 1 block in his last 5 games. It’s about time he stepped up! Russell Westbrook dropped 24 points, 11 assists, and 2 treys on Sunday, so he looks like a solid start this week. Did you know that Nick Collison is a perfect 10-10 from the field in his last 2 games?

START: Durant, Westbrook
BORDERLINE: Green, Collison
BENCH: Watson

Orlando Magic (3 games)

Dwight Howard returned from a 2 game absence and proved that he was healthy by schooling Andrew Bynum and leading his team to victories over the Spurs and Lakers. Jameer Nelson is ON FIRE (averaging 25 points and 3.3 threes in his last 4 games) and is quietly having a breakout season. Mickael Pietrus has returned from his thumb injury, but I don’t suggest starting him yet.

START: D. Howard, Lewis, Turkoglu, J. Nelson
BENCH: Pietrus

Philadelphia 76ers (2 games)

Andre Iguodala exploded for 26 points, 6 assists, and 2 steals on Saturday, while Andre Miller had a triple-double. Thaddeous Young is starting once again, and Louis Williams and Marreese Speights are getting solid playing time as well. All of these players should benefit from Brand’s absence.

BORDERLINE: Iguodala, A. Miller
BENCH: Brand, T. Young, L. Williams, Dalembert, Speights

Phoenix Suns (1 game)

The Suns only have 1 game this week, so keep this is mind when setting your lineup. After averaging just 21.9 points and 7.8 rebounds in November, Amare Stoudemire is averaging 23.4 and 10.4 in December (much better). Jason Richardson has made 12 threes in his last 3 games for Phoenix, but teammate Matt Barnes is actually averaging more treys per game.

BORDERLINE: Stoudemire
BENCH: Nash, Shaq, J-Rich, Barnes, Hill, Barbosa

Portland Trail Blazers (4 games)

Brandon Roy is coming off a career-high 52 points on Thursday and is dominating everyone right now. Steve Blake also had a monster 22 point, 10 assist, 4 steal, 4 three game on Thursday, and continues to have a career-year. Rudy Fernandez is in a brief slump, but hopefully he’ll snap out of it soon.

START: Roy, Aldridge, Blake, Oden
BORDERLINE: Fernandez, Przybilla

Sacramento Kings (3 games)

The Kings have a poor schedule this week, so weigh your options carefully. Beno Udrih missed Saturday’s game with a hamstring injury, so keep an eye on Bobby Jackson. John Salmons is shooting 42% from beyond the arc and making 1.3 treys per game this season, well above his previous highs. Francisco Garcia has been decent lately, but I think he’s about to get hot.

START: Salmons
BORDERLINE: B. Miller, Garcia, Hawes
BENCH: Kev-Mart, Udrih, Thompson
WATCH: B. Jackson

San Antonio Spurs (4 games)

Tony Parker has made 15 of his last 16 free throws, and is now shooting 78.9% from the line this season. That’s a nice improvement over last season’s 71.5%. Matt Bonner has been solid in December, averaging 11.3 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 2 threes per game on 54% FG shooting. For the season, he’s attempted 75 treys and just 5 free throws!

START: Duncan, T. Parker, Ginobili, Bonner
BORDERLINE: R. Mason

Toronto Raptors (3 games)

The coaching change hasn’t done much good, as the Raptors have lost 5 games in a row. Bosh shot just 33% from the field in those games, but he should heat up soon. Jason Kapono is still starting over Anthony Parker, but it’s tough to rely on him right now.

START: Bosh, Calderon, J. O’Neal
BENCH: Moon, Kapono, A. Parker, Bargnani

Utah Jazz (3 games)

Carlos Boozer needs a 3rd MRI on his injured quad, which sounds like terrible news for his owners. Paul Millsap will continue to drop double-doubles left and right in his absence. Mehmet Okur has scored 20+ points in 3 straight games, and I think more treys are coming soon. Ronnie Brewer hasn’t done much of anything lately, so start looking for a replacement.

START: D. Williams, Okur, Millsap
BORDERLINE: Kirilenko
BENCH: Boozer, R. Brewer

Washington Wizards (3 games)

Caron Butler is averaging just 16.8 points and 4.4 turnovers in his last 5 games, but things should improve this week. Antawn Jamison is making just 1.3 treys per game this season, his lowest average in 4 years. Mike James is a solid start this week, but Andray Blatche is much more questionable.

START: C. Butler, Jamison, M. James
BORDERLINE: Blatche
BENCH: Arenas

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