How to Predict Career Years…

Besides being former Warriors, what do Mike Dunleavy and Jason Richardson have in common?

In ‘07-08, Mike-D and J-Rich shot the ball better than ever before and put up career-high numbers in several categories. In fact, you could say they had “career years,” and as a result, their fantasy owners prospered.

Since drafting these type of players is essential to winning fantasy leagues, the purpose of this article is to show you that, often times, career years CAN be predicted. So what else do Dunleavy & Richardson have in common?

For starters, both guys were 27 years old last season. Most studies show that the average peak age for NBA (and MLB) players is between 25 and 28 years old, so a player’s age is key for this discussion. Additionally, both players had key changes before the season started. Richardson was traded to Charlotte, where he immediately became their team leader and go-to scorer. In Indiana, Dunleavy got a new coach, as Jim O’Brien replaced Rick Carlisle. Needless to say, both players benefited from change. For other breakout players, all they needed was an opportunity. Listed below are 8 players who had “career years” in ‘07-08. All of them had somewhat identifiable “changes,” and all were between 25 and 28 years old. After assessing their reasons for breaking out, I will identify 2 “career year” candidates for ‘08-09.

*EXCLUSIVE* to my NBA Fantasy Draft Guide will be an article that identifies 15 more players (3 at each position) who I think are primed for peak performances in ‘08-09. I’m not just picking 27-year olds out of a hat here. I have assessed each individual on a case-by-case basis, and am confident that these players will provide you with much better value than where they’re likely to be drafted. Enjoy!

8 Players who had “Career Years” in ‘07-08

PG: Jose Calderon (26)

Calderon was a solid backup in ‘06-07, and for awhile, it looked like he’d play the same role in ‘07-08. He came off the bench for the first 11 games, averaging a modest 8.6 points and 6.1 assists in just 19.5 minutes per game. But then TJ Ford got hurt, and Calderon seized the opportunity. In 56 starts, he averaged 9.1 dimes to just 1.9 turnovers while scoring 13 ppg and shooting a blazing 53.1% FG, 45.3% 3P, and 91.1% FT.

Most people knew that he was an efficient backup, but few knew that he was THIS good. As it turns out, he only needed a chance to play big minutes. Now the question is: was last year truly his “career year,” or can he play even better this season? Of course, you’ll have to pay to find out, as Calderon is now a top tier fantasy point guard. (Translation: you win leagues by drafting Calderon in the 11th round last year, not by drafting him in the 1st round this year).

SG: Mike Dunleavy Jr. (27)

After being selected #3 overall in the 2002 NBA draft (Amare & C. Butler went 9 & 10…oops), and being the son of an NBA coach, Junior had a lot of pressure on him when he came into the league. As a result, he struggled as a Warrior. In 4 1/2 seasons with Golden State, his highest scoring average was 13.4 ppg, his highest FG% was 45.1%, and he shot over 35% 3P just twice. When he was traded to Indiana halfway thru the ‘06-07 season, he immediately improved, and I’m sure he welcomed the change of scenery.

But the addition of head coach Jim O’Brien is what really sparked Mike-D’s career year. Dunleavy excels in transition offense thanks to his solid ball-handling abilities and court vision, so O’Briens fast pace helped him in this regard. O’Brien also put the ball in his hands quite a bit (Dunleavy averaged a career-high 3.5 dimes) and encouraged him to jack up threes (2.0 makes and 4.7 attempts per game were well above his previous highs). This new-found freedom also helped give Junior what he needed more than anything: confidence. As a result, his shooting %’s improved drastically… and his fantasy value went thru the roof.

SG: John Salmons (28)

Some people were surprised by Salmons’ breakout season, but not me. Immediately after Bibby hurt his hand, I drafted Salmons in 2 of my 3 leagues and made him my #1 recommended pickup for the first week of the season. You see, whenever you give him big minutes and put the ball in his hands, he puts up solid stats. Just look back to ‘05-06, when he started 24 games for Philly and averaged 9.5 points (Iverson played in some of those games), 3.5 rebounds, and 4.0 assists while shooting 46.5% FG and 83.9% FT.

So with Bibby out to start the season and Artest suspended for the first 7 games (and also inury-prone), it was a no-brainer. Salmons responded by averaging 17.5 points, 5.4 boards, 3.5 assists, 1.6 steals, and .3 blocks while shooting a rock solid 49.7% FG and 81.1% FT in 41 starts last season. Unfortunately, his stats off the bench were much worse, but if you picked him up and rode that wave, I’m sure you were pleased. A career year indeed.

SF: Jason Richardson (27)

In a surprising 2007 draft day trade, the Warriors sent Richardson to Charlotte for power forward prospect Brandan Wright. So after 6 years in Oakland, J-Rich had a new home, but he didn’t waste any time getting comfortable. In his first 2 games as a Bobcat, he scored 50 points, made 9 threes on 16 attempts, and grabbed 4 steals. After that he didn’t look back, leading the league with 243 threes made and 599 threes attempted, while shooting a career-best 40.6% from beyond the arc. He also shot 75.2% from the line after shooting under 70% FT in the 4 seasons prior, and swatted a career-high .7 shots per game for good measure.

As a result, it was his finest fantasy season yet, but something tells me he won’t average 3 treys per game again in his career. And while he’s still an outstanding athlete, his vertical is likely to decline when he hits 30. Even for ‘08-09, Charlotte has more offensive firepower (Augustin, Morrison, May), so they won’t need to rely on J-Rich as heavily. I’m guessing we just saw Richardson hit his peak.

SF: Jamario Moon (27)

Jamario who? That’s what most people were asking when he was inserted into the starting lineup on Toronto’s third game of ‘07-08. Even if those people looked up his previous D-League stats, they’d see that he averaged just 5.0 points and 12.9 minutes in 59 “minor league” games. Talk about flying under the radar… But Toronto saw something that other teams didn’t, and they decided to give Moon a chance. The gamble paid off immensely, as the Raptors were much better with him on the court, and Jamario became a fan favorite around the league for his high-flying antics.

He also won over fantasy owners with his ability to rack up steals and blocks. Sure enough, LeBron, Marion, Gay, AK-47, Granger, Rasheed, and Battier were the only other players to average 1+ steal, 1+ block, and .5 or more threes per game last season. And if you missed out on him because you were waiting for Mike Conley & Jeff Green to produce, I hope you learned a lesson from Moon & Luis Scola. Which is, 27-year old rookies are more likely to produce than 20-year old ones.

PF: Ryan Gomes (25)

Right before last season started, Minnesota traded away Ricky Davis & Mark Blount to Miami for Antoine Walker, Michael Doleac, and a 1st round pick. Rotoworld and other sources said to target Rashad McCants, but I immediately wrote that Ryan Gomes would be the biggest beneficiary. But for some reason, Randy Wittman didn’t want to give him minutes right away. The former Providence star averaged just 25.6 mpg in November and 24.8 mpg in December.

But in the 52 games that followed, Gomes averaged 32.3 minutes, 14.1 points, 6.4 boards, .8 steals, and .7 threes per game while shooting 47.3% FG and 83.8% FT. It took him awhile to get going, but he ended up being the more valuable (and much more consistent) fantasy producer. This career year was easy to predict, because Gomes was an experienced and versatile player on a losing team that didn’t have many players with those two qualities. However, I’m skeptical that his stats will further improve in ‘08-09, because Minnesota added two talented players in Mike Miller and Kevin Love.

C: Chris Kaman (25)

Kaman had a miserable ‘06-07 season, averaging just 10.1 points, 7.8 boards, and 1.5 blocks while shooting 45.1% FG and 74.1% FT. As a result, he fell far in most drafts last season, and was perhaps the best value pick among centers. It was easy to assume that he’d get more rebounds and touches with Elton Brand out, but few knew just how big of an impact that would have on him. In ‘07-08, he set career-highs in nearly every single category and was much more active on both ends of the floor with Brand out.

Kaman had flashed plenty of potential in his first few years in the league, but he struggled with inconsistency. In January of 2008, we found out one of the reasons why. He reveled that he had been misdiagnosed with ADHD as a child, but didn’t find out until July of 2007. Working with a neurosurgeon, he found out ways to slow down his thought process, which clearly helped his on-court performance. Unfortunately, I wasn’t aware of this development, so I didn’t have him pegged for a breakout season. However, Kaman was one of the younger players to have a career year in ‘07-08, and is the perfect example of how we shouldn’t write off people with potential who struggle in their early twenties.

C: Brendan Haywood (28)

Haywood’s scenario was much different than Kaman’s. For the majority of his first 6 years in the league, Brendan’s minutes per game hovered between 20 and 24. The main reason for his limited minutes was Etan Thomas, who averaged between 13 and 24 minutes as Haywood’s backup between ‘01-07. During the ‘06-07 season in particular, the two got into several altercations during practice and showed visible dislike for one another at games. Then out of nowhere, a routine physical found that Etan had to have open heart surgery, thus ending his ‘07-08 season before it even began.

Haywood saw this as an opportunity for more playing time, and he made the most of it. He started 80 games, and set career-highs in minutes, points, rebounds, assists, and FT%. After posting a PER of 14.2 in ‘06-07, he put up a solid 18.3 in ‘07-08. At 28 years old, he was still in peak physical form, and he made the most of his opportunity. But now Etan Thomas is back, and Andray Blatche is a talented youngster who needs more playing time to develop. He may still be worth owning in ‘08-09, but don’t expect another career year out of him.

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2 “Career Year” candidates for ‘08-09

SF: Corey Maggette (28)

With Baron Davis gone and Monta Ellis injured, the Warriors are missing their 2 leading scorers from last season. Mickael Pietrus and Matt Barnes are also gone, meaning the Warriors have 56 points, 17.8 rebounds, 14.1 assists, and 4.1 threes per game to replace. Enter: Corey Maggette, who just signed a $50 million contract and is still in his prime. He spent the last 8 seasons playing for the lowly Clippers, and while he put up solid stats, he battled injuries and didn’t always get along with his coach.

Now he’s playing for Don Nelson, who loves to push the pace, outscore opponents, and go to guys who have mismatches. Being an elite scorer and superb athlete who can run the floor and is stronger than most of his defenders, Maggette should thrive in Nellie’s system. From a fantasy perspective, one of his greatest strengths is his free throw shooting. For his career, he’s an 81.9% FT shooter, and has averaged 8+ attempts per game for the past 5 years. Now that he’s the Warriors’ go-to scorer, he could conceivably lead the league in free throws made. He should also shatter his career-high in points per game, but fantasy owners already know that he can score.

The reason why some people dislike him is that he doesn’t really contribute in other categories. Sure, he made 1.1 threes last year, but that was his career-high, and he shot just 20% 3P the year before. His career average of .76 steals per game is also very unimpressive. However, the Warriors’ offense thrives on their ability to force turnovers (#1 last year with 16.9 opponent turnovers per game), so don’t be surprised if Maggette sets a career-high in steals. Nelson also allows his players to jack up threes, so I’m predicting Corey to make more treys this season as well. What does all of this add up to? A career-year for Maggette in ‘08-09.

PF: David Lee (25)

If you’re a fan of David Lee, the Zach Randolph trade that didn’t happen may be a blessing in disguise. The trade was going to open up more minutes for Lee, and everyone was ready to move him up their cheatsheets as a result. Well, it didn’t happen, and now a lot of those people are expecting Lee to post similar numbers to last year. Those same people are also probably expecting Eddy Curry to average 26 minutes per game again, but those people are morons, and if you’re reading this, you should have no problem beating them.

Lee’s minutes are still going to increase this year, because Randolph is going to play mostly center and Curry will get no more than 18 mpg off the bench. In 29 starts last season, Lee averaged 13 points and 10.3 boards in 33.9 minutes, to go along with his usual excellent shooting %’s. Unfortunately, Isiah chose to bring him off the bench more often than not, which really limited Lee’s fantasy value. But fortunately, there’s a new coach in New York, and Mike D’Antoni is no moron. He knows how athletic the former Gator is, and how Lee can beat most power forwards running the floor. As a result, he should get a lot more fast-break buckets this season.

Lee is also a better passer than his 1.2 assists per game in ‘07-08 would indicate, and while he doesn’t swat a lot of shots, his steals and blocks are bound to go up with more minutes. At 25 years old, Lee seems primed for a breakout campaign. Much like Jim O’Brien helped Dunleavy Jr. take his game to the next level, D’Antoni is going to unleash D. Lee’s abilities on the rest of the league.

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15 more “Career Year” candidates = ???

For my Fantasy Draft Guide, I’ve targeted 15 more breakout candidates. If you like my career year theories and agree with my analysis of Maggette and Lee, I guarantee that you’ll be pleased with these selections.

“Hey E,
I stumbled across your rankings and articles today while doing research for my draft tomorrow and I wanted to let you know I have a new favorite fantasy basketball site. I have something of a statistical background from work, and I appreciate the methodology you use.

John Salmons is making you look pretty smart. A couple of people have asked how I knew to pick him up before the Kings’ first game of the season…. Hehe.”
~Reid S.

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