Midweek Musings: Millsap and GMs
December 18, 2008 by Evil E
What does Paul Millsap have to do with these general managers?
I’m introducing a new segment this week called “Midweek Musings.” Every Wednesday or Thursday, I will share some random thoughts with you that may or may not be related to basketball. If you’d like to see this segment stick (or go away), please drop me a line (the contact form has been fixed).
Finally!
~Dwight Howard finally missed a game! The Ironman played in 351 consecutive games to start his NBA career before sitting out to rest a sore knee. He’s considered day-to-day, and his owners just have to hope that the injury doesn’t affect his play going forward.
~After nearly a month in street clothes, Josh Howard is finally back in action. His playing time has been limited, but he scored 20 points in just 22 minutes on Wednesday. When he’s on, Josh is capable of being an even more valuable fantasy player than Dwight, which says a lot. But in terms of RELIABILITY, they’re miles apart.
Old guys still got game
~Not only did the Bobcats sign veteran power forward Juwan Howard, but they immediately threw him into the starting lineup in place of Gerald Wallace. The 35-year old had a decent debut (8 points and 5 boards in 26 minutes), but to say his upside is limited would be an understatement.
~The move to Washington has opened up more playing time for Mike James. He started on Wednesday and had 16 points, 2 assists, 2 threes, and 2 steals in 32 minutes. The 33-year old hasn’t been a fantasy force since ‘05-06, when he averaged a sparkling 20.3 points, 5.8 assists, and 2.1 threes per game on 46.9% FG and 83.7% FT shooting. Don’t expect anything close to that, but keep an eye on the veteran.
Paul Millsap and more…
Over the past 3 weeks, can you name a power forward who’s been more dependable than Paul Millsap? I didn’t think so. In fantasy sports, “handcuffing” a backup player to his starter is much more common in football than it is in basketball, but if you drafted Carlos Boozer this year and didn’t grab his backup, you’ve probably been kicking yourself for awhile now.
Millsap moved into the starting lineup after Carlos went down with a quad injury, and he’s put up Boozer-like stats in his absence. Want 13 straight double-doubles? No problem. In his last 13 games, Millsap is averaging 36.4 minutes, 18.6 points, 11.7 rebounds (4.5 offensive), 2.5 assists, 1.7 steals, and .9 blocks per game while shooting a rock solid 57.1% from the field. If he could do that over a full season, he’d be a Top 20 fantasy player.
Of course, this is no surprise to the hardcore hoops fan. Even as a rookie, Millsap proved that he was up to the task. On January 27th, 2007, Boozer played just 4 minutes before leaving with an injury and missing the next 8 games. The rookie Millsap had 15 points and 17 boards (10 offensive) that game, and averaged 12.8 points and 8.9 rebounds over the next 10 games. He was ready for big minutes back then, and he’s improved quite a bit under legendary coach Jerry Sloan.
No, I’m not suggesting to pick him up now, because “Mansap” shouldn’t be available in any respectable fantasy league. I’m bringing him up for an entirely different reason. I want to mention the fact that he’s the only player in NCAA basketball history to lead the nation in rebounding for 3 straight seasons. So how in the world did he fall to the #47 overall pick in the ‘06 NBA Draft?!?
Surely teams were concerned about his lack of height, but Millsap averaged 1.9 steals and 2.3 blocks in his last year at Louisiana Tech (Karl Malone’s alma mater), showing off his long wingspan and athleticism. I realize that the WAC (Western Athletic Conference) isn’t the most talented basketball conference around, but it was good enough for Nick Fazekas to be chosen #34 overall in the ‘07 NBA Draft. Yes, Fazekas put up some nice offensive numbers at Nevada, but he also got to play with Ramon Sessions in college.
In the same draft where Paul Millsap fell to the 47th pick, Adam Morrison was picked 3rd, Shelden Williams was picked 5th, Patrick O’Bryant was picked 9th, Mouhamed Sene was picked 10th, JJ Redick was picked 11th, and Hilton Armstrong was picked 12th (aren’t “lottery picks” supposed to be solid?). The list doesn’t end there, as big men like Cedric Simmons, Oleksiy Pecherov, Steve Novak, Solomon Jones, Paul Davis, Kosta Perovic, James Augustine, Lior Eliyahu, and Alexander Johnson were all picked before the 3-time NCAA rebounding champ as well.
So here’s what I’m getting at…
Why are head coaches constantly under pressure and always held accountable for their team’s win-loss record, while general managers are less scrutinized (by ownership, the media, and most fans) and almost never have to even explain the rationale behind their decisions (that usually have a far greater impact on the team’s present and future win-loss record)?
In the ‘06 draft, Utah GM Kevin O’Connor picked Ronnie Brewer at #14 and Millsap at #47. Portland GM Kevin Pritchard did even better by landing Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge, Sergio Rodriguez, and Joel Freeland (nice potential supposedly). And you can’t knock the results of Boston GM Danny Ainge for acquiring Rajon Rondo, Leon Powe, Sebastian Telfair, and Theo Ratliff that day (the latter 2 being key pieces in the trade for Kevin Garnett). For having late picks, Lakers GM Mitch Kupchak also did a superb job of drafting Jordan Farmar at #26 and Cheik Samb at #51 (who was traded to Detroit for Mo Evans, who was later traded to Orlando for Trevor Ariza). So I think it’s safe to give all 4 of those general managers an A for that draft.
But what about the other 26 teams?
Atlanta GM Billy Knight passed on Roy and Millsap to grab Shelden Williams and Solomon Jones, a year after passing on Chris Paul and Deron Williams to select Marvin Williams. Despite the obvious incompetence, Knight was never fired. Instead, he stepped down on his own accord in May of 2008, saying that the franchise was “in much better shape than it was in when I took over.”
The Knicks had two 1st round picks in ‘06 and they wanted to draft a point guard. At #20, they had their choice of Rondo or Farmar, but instead, New York GM Isiah Thomas shocked everyone by taking Renaldo Balkman. Since 5 point guards were taken between #21 and #28 (even the average fantasy owner knows to prepare for positional runs), the Knicks had to take Mardy Collins at #29. I actually like Balkman’s game, but Isiah could have taken Rondo at #20, Millsap at #29, and still had a good chance of signing Renaldo as a free agent. After years and years of watching her daddy make poor decisions, Isiah’s daughter finally attempted to overdose on sleeping pills in October of 2008.
In 2006, Clippers GM Elgin Baylor was named the NBA Executive of the Year, but that was before the ‘06 draft, when he selected mediocre big man Paul Davis at #34 and Puerto Rican guard Guillermo Diaz at #52. Wouldn’t Millsap and fellow Puerto Rican guard Jose Juan Barea (undrafted) have been much better selections? Again, Baylor was never fired. Instead, he stepped down in October of 2008.
In typical Warriors fashion, GM Chris Mullin selected 2 big men in the ‘06 draft, hoping that one of the “7-foot projects” would pan out. Two years later, #9 pick O’Bryant and #38 pick Perovic have yet to do diddly-poo in the NBA. You see, former GM Dave Twardzik patented the “throw all your darts at big men and hope one hits bullseye” theory. From 1994-97, the Warriors used 10 of their 12 draft picks to select big men, yet Twardzik still managed to pass on Garnett, Rasheed, and McDyess in ‘95 and Jermaine O’Neal and Ilgauskas in ‘96 (not to mention Nash and Kobe, for Todd freakin’ Fuller). Perhaps Mullin finally learned his lesson, because he used the #49 pick in the ‘08 draft to select Richard Hendrix (a double-double machine who has been compared to Paul Millsap).
After considering all of these poor draft decisions, is it surprising that the Hawks, Knicks, Clippers, and Warriors have COMBINED for just 6 playoff appearances in the last 9 years? In that same time period, those 4 teams have also used 23 different head coaches. When a team isn’t winning, it’s easy for the owner to point his finger at the head coach and make him the scapegoat. But what about the general managers? Were guys like Isiah Thomas and Elgin Baylor allowed to keep their jobs for longer than they should simply because they were Hall of Fame players? I sure hope not. Meanwhile, Jerry Sloan is coaching the Jazz for his 21st straight season. There’s no doubt in my mind that Sloan is a Hall of Fame coach, but GM Kevin O’Connor and his predecessor Frank Layden deserve a lot of credit as well for making solid decisions year in and year out.
It’s time for NBA owners to start holding general managers (and team presidents) more accountable. They’re the ones who speak with the owner and coaches on a day-to-day basis, and they’re the ones who make the big decisions on who to draft, sign, and trade. I also think that the media and fans should spend less time worrying about short-term wins and losses and more time analyzing player personnel moves.
It would be fantastic if general managers actually shared some of their insights with the fans, whether outlining a long-term plan for success or analyzing recent draft picks. I’m sure this kind of “inside information” sounds ridiculous to leak to the public, but why else are head coaches being fired so quickly? Aren’t most owners worried that they’ll lose ticket sales if losses pile up? So to prevent this from happening, they have no problem making a coaching change. It’s a way of telling their fans that they don’t accept losing. This usually works as a short-term solution (you have to give the new coach a chance, right?), but in some cases, it’s like applying a band-aid to an injury that needs invasive surgery.
If owners REALLY want to satisfy the die-hard fans, let us know what’s going on inside the organization. Give us a “state of the team” address and realistic short-term and long-term goals. Show us your blueprint to win a championship and prove that you’re attempting to build the strongest basketball team possible. And lastly, please back up your decisions with detailed stats and thorough analysis… so we at least know your rationale for passing on a player like Paul Millsap.
Related posts:
- Midweek Musings: All-Stars and NO on Joe This week I unveil my All-Star picks and explain why you shouldn’t vote...
- Midweek Musings: Throwin’ Up the W! What in the World does this Woman have to do With my Midweek...
Great article you hit the nail on the head. 6 coaches fired before Christmas. Eddie Jordan has a team built around offense loses their number player before the season starts. Oh yeah they just signed him to a 100 million plus extension. The Kings bad hire in the first place but a team in rebuilding mode with no kind of experience or playmakers. Miller is your best passer and he is the center. Philly added a superstar (bad fit) and changed the way they play. Kinda hard from them to play from inside out when they have no shooters. Iggy and Dalembert have regressed since they brought in Brand. Oklahoma bad hire in the first place hired a dictator for a young team (I say for tanking reasons but that's another story). Minnesota all i can say is Kevin Mchale and the whole verbal contract with Joe Smith a few years ago that cost them a few first rounds. Also check his draft resume. Mark Madsen mid-level??? Mitchell in Toronto look at their roster there is not alot to work with.
In basketball the GM is responsible he brings in the talent he builds the roster. A coach has say but the GM pulls the trigger (see Phil Jackson) Even he left b/c his team was turning into a circus show (and they did). The Celtics might pull off 70 wins this year but is Doc Rivers one of the best coaches ever?He has been giving the golden goose three future hall of famers and future all star point guard (Good move Mchale but wrong team buddy) . I could coach them to 60 wins. Don't forgot this is the same guy that lost 20 plus in a row with Orlando. The Magic a few years back brought in a Hockey GM and he nearly destroyed that team. He traded T-Mac for Mobley and Francis. They lucked out (fired him) and got a number 1 pick. Picked up a franchise player. with their new Gm (Otis Smith)amidst all the pressure to take Okafor took Howard smart move.
Best GM Sam Presti. Players drafted by him whom they traded maybe b/c they didn't fit what they wanted to do or what not. Scola, Barbosa, and Salmons that is a really good second unit if you ask me
Evil, that would be too simple if GMs just said what they were trying to do. A little deception goes a long way in the NBA. You see this all the time around draft time, Team A will leak a story saying that they are interested in Player X, then Team B gets overly excited and reaches for Player X all the while Team A wanted Player Y the entire time. Additionally, I think GMs just like to torture us. Danny Ainge for years was telling us about his "Youth Movement" and how the Celtics weren't tanking, they were "Developing Youth" and "accumulating assets". We were told that Gerald Grean, Sebustian Telfailure, Michael Olowokandi, Allan Ray, and Tony Allen were just a few NBA minutes short of turning the corner and becoming NBA winners. It took an act of God (Seattle selling the team and dumping Allen and legendary Celtic Kevin McHale giving us a top 5 NBA player for Jefferson and 6 scrubs) to turn our fortunes around.
I'd have saved myself a near aneurysm if Danny would've just said "Our team freaking sucks and we're tanking and getting Gerald Green some exposure until we find someone dumb enough to take him", but the reality is that if he was honest about his intentions it never would've happened. You have to give your youth (assets) positive spin to raise interest around the league. You think anyone would've wanted Telfair and Green if they knew the truth? At the time, I couldn't tell if Danny really had a brain between his ears and was waiting for the opportunity to trade all those scrubs or if he really bought into his failure of a youth movement.
I agree with the main point, though. Often times GMs yank the rug out from under the coach and then owners fire them for poor performances. Doc Rivers avoided this fate in Boston, luckily for him. But seriously, what is Theus supposed to do? They traded Bibby and Martin, Miller, and Garcia have been hurt. Obviously the Kings are going to suck. The NBA is just notorious for sacrificing coaches and that also gets back to the players and guaranteed contracts. In the NFL you can just cut a guy. In the NBA you have to suck it up as a coach.
Well, GMs can map out short-term and long-term plans without saying what exactly they're trying to do. Where I would mainly like to see more info is immediately after they make a draft pick/ trade. When Ainge drafted Gerald Green at #18 in the '05 draft, it wasn't because he planned on using him as an asset to land KG down the road. He clearly liked Green as a player, so he should have had no problem explaining why he chose him. The fact is we rarely get REAL analysis on why moves are made. Fans usually just get cookie cutter answers.
For example, if I was a Clippers fan and I wanted them to take Danny Granger at #10 in the same draft, and I asked Elgin Baylor why he took Yaroslav Korolev instead, he should have been able to explain his decision to the extent that, even if I didn't agree with his opinion, I would have at least understood his rationale. But really, how often does that happen?
I am one of those few that refer to themselves as part of "Clipper Nation" and Baylor leaving is one of the best news I've had in a long time (now its time for Sterling to sell the team, and Dunleavy to get out). But Baylor being named Executive of the Year perplexed me. Sure we landed Cassell who singled-handedly guided/coached/lead our team a game away from the Western Conference Finals. But as you mention in '05 Korolev over Danny Granger? 04' a skinny (not ready for the NBA) Shaun Livingston (who definitely needed to go to Duke, build muscle, mature his game, etc) over Devin Harris? I will defend our '03 pick in Kaman who has shown he can play, But I will always remember and never forgive him in '02 CHRIS WILCOX over AMARE STOUDEMIRE? '01 is when we Traded Chandler for Brand, the Bulls still haven't recovered. In '00, although they are/were complete bone-heads Miles and Q brought excitement, something we hadn't had in a long time, probably because picking Olowokandi with the number 1 pick in 1998 still had us crying ourselves to sleep. It still haunts me.
Again great article and am definitely looking forward to more of these.
Dexter, nice post about the Clip Show. They really have done some things right here and there, but it always seems to be one step forward followed up 2 massive steps back. Breaking up that Q/D-Miles team is one of the biggest travesties of the past ten years. The 2000-2001 and 2001-2002 seasons were the only years that I had NBA League Pass and those Clips teams were must-watch. Neither player was ever the same again after they got separated. I will never understand why Elgin broke up such a popular combo that loved playing with each other. It would've been like if the Kings from those same two years just traded Divac. Inexcusable!!
I actually agree with you. It would make being a rational fan a lot less work if GMs were more transparent. I wonder how much of this has to do with simply being in the business of owning a pro sports team. I am sure a GM and owner can sit down and discuss how they're never going to be seriously competitive with a star like Antoine Walker (for example), and that they're going to trade him and things are going to get worse before they get better. If fans can understand this train of thought I'm sure that the owners are on board, too.
However, there is a cost to breaking up a playoff team and rebuilding and that hit is in ticket sales and general fan interest which is how the owners make their cash. Every coaching change the Celtics ever make is quickly followed by an article in the papers about how many season tickets got sold the next day, for example when we brought in the Ricktator believe it or not the city got really excited bought lots of tickets. I don't recall this happening when Danny Ainge replaced Chris Wallace as GM of the team, though, so the quick trigger finger on coaches could be a way for owners to salvage a lost season financially. GMs revealing their true intentions might not always create an influx of good will from the fanbase. I doubt a lot of fans are as interested in the intricacies of building an NBA winner as all of us here. Anything short of a Steinbrenner-esque win-now at all costs would probably frustrate most fans and could be a reason why GMs remain surprisingly quiet a lot of the time.
You mentioned Joel Freeland, and I think that kid's gonna be a GOOD player. He's currently going 12/5 with a block in only 18 minutes across the pond. The Blazers' young post players are RIDICULOUS.
On another note, the Bobcats and Warriors are supposedly discussing a Felton for Randolph/Wright trade. What would you think of that? Personally, I think getting a quality young forward like Wright or Randolph who is under contract for a few years would be a GREAT deal for the Bobbies. After all the talk that Augustin would only be a bench player in the NBA, he's clearly ready to be our starter for years to come. He's a much more efficient scorer than Felton, and he runs the offense better as a rookie than Felton does as a four-year vet.
I'm sure Mullin and Higgins frequently chat since they're buddies, but that rumor sounds like it was cooked up by a Bobcats fan. The Warriors just got Crawford who has several more years on his contract. HE is the man that they want to team up with Monta in the backcourt. Why would they go after Felton as well? Monta is better suited guarding PG's, yet Felton is even shorter than him. GS isn't gonna give up Randolph or Wright that easily. But yeah, I'm sure the Cats would love that trade.
Not a Charlotte fan:
http://www.charlotteobserver.com/bobcats/story/42...
about Millsap and GM's…if I was the Jazz GM I would let Boozer walk this summer or try to work a sign and trade. They can sign Paul for much less and get something good for Boozer.
I'm sure they're considering that, but the interesting thing is that Okur has a player option for next year as well. Since Koufous & Fesenko are still a ways away, I wonder what center they might consider signing if they let both Boozer and Okur walk.
Nevermind what I said about Mullin learning his lesson, because they waived Richard Hendrix today. In 9 D-League games, Hendrix is averaging 28.7 minutes, 13.9 points, 10.9 boards (3.0 off), 1.1 steals, and 1.2 blocks on 51.6% FG shooting. That translates to 13.7 boards per 36 minutes. Oh yeah, his team is also 8-1. DeMArcus Nelson and Rob Kurz have played fairly well, but I fail to see how their upsides are higher than Hendrix's. BOOOOO!
solid article. I agree that GMs ought to be more accountable.
as for the Hendrix thing, while I agree that the Warriors had better options to drop…if the option in Mullin's mind was dropping Hendrix OR trading one of Randolph or Wright and someone for Felton, then I think Mullin at least got that one right.
So Evil…with Mickael Pietrus coming back from his hand injury, what do you see his value as going forward?