Round 1 (East) - PA, MD advance
March 13, 2008
Kobe, Rip & Sheed knocked off a bunch of former Oak Hill Academy stars.
My last 1st round matchup is a doozy, so I decided to finish with a bang, video style!
With the NCAA Basketball Tournament right around the corner, I decided to create an NBA State Tournament to see which states are producing the best players.
Do certain states excel at producing certain positions? Who’s going to win it all?
Help me decide by voting for each matchup, and we’ll crown an NBA State Champion right around the time of the NCAA Championship game.
#1 Seed
East Region
Pennsylvania (16 players) +
Maryland (11) + DE (0)
Combined Pop. = 18,915,900
PG: Sam Cassell (MD) / Delonte West (MD) / Kyle Lowry (PA)
Here’s the million dollar question: How much does Sam-I-Am have left in the tank? Answer: Enough to make him my starter. Let him play the first 10 minutes and the last 10 minutes and I think he’ll still be able to do his thing. I mean, the dude’s bringing sexy back!
Damn, that’s almost as good as Delonte West’s Wiyah Hangah video. West hasn’t played quite as well as I thought he would in Cleveland, but I still like his game. In the playoffs, he could either suck it up or come up BIG. I’m going with Lowry as my 3rd PG because he plays great D and takes the ball to the hoop hard.
SG: Richard Hamilton (PA) / Kevin Durant (MD)
I was going to start Kobe here, but Rip’s gotta be in the starting lineup (I think we know which squad has the best two guards in this tourney). Hamilton is a proven winner and a nightmare to guard. Speaking of stellar offensive players, Kevin Durant is having a pretty solid rookie season considering the lack of talent around him. He’s still just 19, but he’s shown the ability to make plays that many pros simply cannot. However, he can still be abused on the defensive end. As if guarding those two guys wasn’t hard enough…
SF: Kobe Bryant (PA) / Keith Bogans (MD)
You’ve got the best player in the game to worry about. I figure Kobe is versatile enough to start him at small forward but play him at both guard spots as well. Love him or hate him, you’ve got to respect his game. If you think the Lakers are going to have a tough 1st round matchup in the playoffs, just wait’ll you see what Kobe has to deal with here. KB 24 has KB 10 backing him up. Bogans is more of a shooting guard, but he’s much stronger and more physical than Durant. The guy is solid defensively and can drain threes when he gets hot.
PF: Rudy Gay (MD) / Linas Kleiza (MD) / Hakim Warrick (PA)
He’s still just 21, but Rudy Gay is without a doubt the top active player to come out of Maryland. He needs to bulk up and work on his rebounding, but Gay has spent about a third of his minutes this season at power forward and that may be his best position going forward. I’m not sure how many people agree with me, but I think his combination of size, shooting ability and athleticism is even nastier than Durant’s. Linas Kleiza is the man! He’s a giant (6-8, 245) Lithuanian who will bust threes in your face and slap you around to show you who’s boss. How can you not love the guy? Hakim Warrick gets the nod as my 12th man. To be honest, I thought he would have made a bigger impact in the NBA by now, but he still has time to make his mark.
C: Rasheed Wallace (PA) / Josh Boone (MD)
Rasheed Wallace was born and raised in Philly, where he was named high school player of the year in ‘93 by USA Today. Earlier this year, Barkley and Kenny Smith said that Sheed could be the best player in the league if he wanted to. At first I thought it was an outlandish statement, but now I’m starting to agree. The guy can dominate both ends of the floor and the skills that he possesses for a man his size are unreal. It also doesn’t hurt that Sheed speaks his mind and is one of the funniest guys in the league to hear mic’ed up. Josh Boone is having a nice breakout season for New Jersey. This team needs another big man to step up and clean the glass, so Boone will play a key role.
Just missed the cut: Cuttino Mobley (PA), Jameer Nelson (PA).
Mobley is still a solid baller, but there’s no need for him with Kobe and Rip. These two states have produced a bunch of solid shooting guards. Guys like Salmons, Carroll, and Dixon would all get consideration for other teams in this tourney, but not a chance here. I went with Delonte and Lowry over Jameer Nelson at the point. It’s his 4th year in the league and he hasn’t really improved. Considering he’s already 26, he’s probably not going to get much better.
Everyone else: Rasual Butler (PA), Matt Carroll (PA), Mardy Collins (PA), Juan Dixon (MD), Steve Francis (MD), Aaron Gray (PA), Jeff Green (MD), Dwayne Jones (PA), Donyell Marshall (PA), Roger Mason (MD), Ronald Murray (PA), Malik Rose (PA), John Salmons (PA).
Team analysis:
This Philly squad looks very strong. They have the best player in the game today and there’s no question who’s getting the ball with the game on the line. The Pistons duo of Rip and Sheed will only compound problems for their opponents. Kevin Durant and Rudy Gay are two 6-9 rising stars who need to get stronger on defense but can seemingly do whatever they want offensively.
How much does Sam Cassell have left in the tank? Is their point guard trio strong enough to take them far in this tournament? What about rebounding? This team is a little undersized and they have poor rebounders at every position. Can guys like Kleiza, Boone and Warrick step up off the bench and hold their own in the paint? Is Kobe Bryant really a winner?
#4 Seed
East Region
Virginia (16 players) + WV (1)
Combined Pop. = 9,524,126
PG: Allen Iverson (VA) / Rajon Rondo (VA) / Steve Blake (VA)
Iverson is 1 of just 3 players on this team (and the only starter) who were born and raised in Virginia. You know his story: shortest MVP in league history, 9 time All-Star, 3rd highest scoring average in the history of the NBA. A lot of people consider him a shooting guard, but he’s playing half his minutes at PG this season and has actually been much more effective at that spot.
TIMEOUT!
Besides Iverson, Joe Smith and Alonzo Mourning are the only other guys on this squad who were born in Virginia. What gives? Oak Hill Academy in Mouth of Wilson, that’s what. Despite an average enrollment of just 100 students, Oak Hill has produced 10 current NBA players and 19 NBA’ers overall. Basketball powerhouse? Yeah, you could say that. It started with Rod Strickland (one of my all-time favorite PG’s) in the mid-80’s and the program err academy hasn’t looked back since.
Despite all of their current talent, they are just a #4 seed because their combined population (I threw them a bone by including Jay-Will from West Virginia) stands at just 9.5 million people. I knew this was going to be an issue, so I tried to penalize them for it by making all of the other squads in the East region as strong as possible (the other 3 teams have combined populations of 19-23 million). Of course, Virginia could still win this region, but I wasn’t going to give them any extra advantages.
COOL?
Rondo and Blake are both Oak Hill graduates. At just 22 years old, Rondo has helped lead Boston to the best record in the NBA. His physical tools are phenomenal, but his outside shooting and ability to win in the playoffs remains to be seen (which is why the Celtics signed Cassell). I went with Blake over Marcus Williams as my 12th man. He won an NCAA title at Maryland and, unlike Rondo, is a decent 3-point shooter.
SG: Stephen Jackson (VA) / Jerry Stackhouse (VA)
Both of these stud swingmen also went to Oak Hill Academy. Stack-Jack’s career has been resurrected in Oakland and he’s turned into one of the most complete players in the game today. His playmaking abilities will help out Iverson a lot on offense and his versatility on defense is a major plus. The fact that he practices his “kick ‘em in their shins” jumper is too much! I’m not sure if you remember how dominant Stackhouse was offensively, but in ‘00-01 he led the league in scoring (29.8 ppg) and still dished out 5.1 assists per game. He already ranks in the Top 100 for career points and could easily crack the Top 75.
SF: Carmelo Anthony (VA) / Grant Hill (VA) / Josh Howard (VA)
In case you were wondering why I had Jackson at SG, look at this trio! Melo was born in New York and moved to Baltimore at a young age, but he graduated from Oak Hill, so he joins Iverson on the Virginia squad. He can dominate the game offensively, but his defense is still mediocre at best. Grant Hill moved to Virginia after his father retired from the NFL (no Oak Hill!). The guy is playing so great for the Suns that I considered starting him over Anthony. Grant gets bonus points because his wife Tamia made one of the sexiest music videos I’ve ever seen. Josh Howard is having a down year, but when he’s on, he’s one of the top 30 players in the league (yeah, this team is pretty talented).
PF: Josh Smith (VA) / Joe Smith (VA)
J-Smoov is 1 of 3 players on this squad who never played college ball (can you name the other two?). The guy has really blossomed this season, but he has plenty of room for improvement. It would be cool if these two guys were on the same team, because then Joe Smith would get his entire name on his jersey! I wanted to write this guy off, but he’s playing great this season and is a better offensive option than J-Smoov.
C: DeSagana Diop (VA) / Alonzo Mourning (VA)
Diop also went to Oak Hill Academy, where he swatted 8 shots per game during his senior season. The guy is a force on defense, but pretty limited offensively. This squad doesn’t need him to score points anyway. I’m going with Zo over Mark Blount as my backup center. Even if Mourning can’t play, I’d rather have him on my team for his leadership. It’s a shame that Zo was overshadowed by Shaq for most of his career, because he was truly a dominant force.
Just missed the cut: Mark Blount (VA), Marcus Williams (VA).
Blount, Williams, and McInnis all graduated from Oak Hill as well. Blount can knock down open jumpers, but the rest of his game is sub-par. Marcus Williams has shown flashes of brilliance, but he’s yet to really prove himself in the NBA.
Everyone else: Jeff McInnis (VA), J.J. Redick (VA), Jason Williams (WV).
Team analysis:
This Virginia squad is loaded with talent and experience. I’m not going to add up their stats, but if you combine the numbers of Iverson, Stackhouse, Hill, and Mourning, they’re probably more impressive than any other group in this tournament. You also have a pretty nice mix of incredible scorers and solid defenders. Whatever Oak Hill Academy is doing seems to be working, but…
Does this team have TOO much talent? Who is willing to sacrifice minutes and shots? There are a bunch of quality lineups available for this squad, but which lineup will you send out for crunch time in game 7? Is this squad that much different than the current Denver Nuggets?
NBA State Tournament
Round 1
East Region: #1 vs. #4
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Loading ...Poll Ends: Wednesday, March 19th @ 11:59pm PST
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My pick: To Be Announced!
I’ve decided to hold back on announcing my picks until at least 5 people have commented on who they chose and why. I don’t want my initial thoughts to possibly sway the vote, so I’m going to bite my lip for a bit. Here are possible questions that you may want to address:
Do you disagree with any of my roster selections?
How would your team look different?
Who would you choose as team captains for each squad?
(I think that quality leadership and the ability to gel as a team will be vital to winning a tournament like this).
How would you divvy up the minutes?
What matchups are most intriguing to you?
Which players will have to step up?
How many games will this series last?
Who did you pick to win?
What was the deciding factor?
C’mon people, let’s hear what you got. This is the last 1st round matchup!
NBA State Tournament Rules:- To qualify, players must have played in at least one NBA game this season (Sorry Brand & Oden) and be on a current NBA roster. |
Click here for East Region matchup #1: (2) New Jersey/ Others vs. (3) New York/ Connecticut.
Click here for Midwest Region matchup #2: (2) Illinois vs. (3) Minnesota/ Wisconsin/ Michigan.
Click here for Midwest Region matchup #1: (1) Several vs. (4) Ohio/ Indiana.
Click here for West Region matchup #2: (2) Texas vs. (3) Everyone Else.
Click here for West Region matchup #1: (1) California vs. (4) Washington/ Oregon/ Alaska.
Click here for South Region matchup #2: (2) Florida vs. (3) North Carolina/ South Carolina.
Click here for South Region matchup #1: (1) Alabama/ Georgia vs. (4) Louisiana/ Mississippi.
Well there it is folks. I hope you enjoyed the extra videos. I’ll be posting an updated bracket shortly.
oh shit…
The Philly Bigs are CHUMPS. Take away Sheed and you got nothing.
The VA team doesn’t have much either. Josh is a monster. Diop has some D..
..this is a weird matchup.
F it….Kobe factor. Philly in 6
The Virginia’s won’t really be able to spread the court out all that well, whereas pretty much everyone on the Philly squad can shoot the ball. The Nuggets have a tough enough time winning games AND finding shots for both Melo/AI, add in Stevie Jax to he mix and that gets a lot more difficult. If you could convince AI to stop ball hogging (it didn’t work in Athens, why would it work here?) then maybe, just maybe Virginia wins.
Sheed would tear Diop up and who’s stopping Kobe? Philly in 6 (5 if Durant doesn’t get too much burn against the top guys on VA).
If I was constructing the team, I would probably leave either Iverson or Melo off of it. I would probably leave Melo off and start Howard at the 3. Then I’d pick up Reddick (some one needs to be able to consistently make 3’s on this team) and run with that. I know Howard’s having a down year, but his Roland rating is double Melo’s and he doesn’t need the ball in his hand to be valuable. That VA team, IMHO, has a much better chance of winning. Of course, 99% of the public and media would cry out against me. But I honestly feel that VA team would have a much better chance of making it to the second round.
Either way, it would be really fun watching Rudy and Josh Smith battle it out.
PS If Kobe’s the best in the game, does that mean that LBJ and KG are not longer ‘in the game’?
Billy - If we’re playing a pickup game and I have the #1 pick, I’m taking LeBron. My #2 pick might be Chris Paul, but that doesn’t mean I think either guy is the best in the league. However, if Kobe can’t lead the Lakers to the Western Conf. Finals this year, I will have to reconsider.
I kind of agree with you regarding Carmelo. They might have a better shot at winning if they keep him off the roster and give Howard and Hill all the minutes. That doesn’t mean I would give Redick any burn tho haha.
The PA team looks good but having Rudy Gay as starting PF is a liability. Luckily he doesn’t have to go up against an elite post-up power forward, he gets off easy by having to face Josh Smith. I like the PA team, besides Gay and Cassell the team should be sold enough defensively to contain the Va team, though I would expect Iverson to have some big games. However it has been proven over his career that a big game by AI(or Melo for that matter!) does not necessarily = a win, so I take the PA team to win this series in 6.
We all love fantasy (it doesn’t matter what Sir Charles thinks and how relevant are all these stats for reality… they still show something…)… Using Evil E recent rankings and the top three levels… PA/MD team has only Kobe (level 10) and Gay (level 8)… VA has AI, Melo and J-Smoove all level 9 and Captain Jack (level 8)… nba.com FSPI prove the same (the 4 VA players are in the top 35 while MD/PA has only 2 there)… So…. Oak Hill Academy in 6 games…
Why in the world would you use my fantasy rankings for the last 6 weeks of the season to decide who wins? That makes no sense to me.
I don’t even know what Barkley quote you’re referring to, but if he said something negative about fantasy sports, it’s probably because some people automatically look at the standard fantasy stats to determine how good a player is, which is what you seem to be doing here.
Just because I made a name for myself by analyzing stats for “fantasy” purposes, doesn’t mean that I can’t differentiate between a players “fantasy value” and his “real value” as a player who can help you win. I would hope that most of you who have been reading my stuff for awhile realize this.
For example, for my PG rankings, I ranked Raymond Felton in Level 6. I also put Chauncey in Level 6, but that’s only because Detroit is starting to rest him more for the playoffs. In real life, Billups is a Level 9 type of player. And while I recognize Felton’s solid fantasy value, I’m not a fan of his game, which I made a point to explain under his name AND TJ Ford’s:
“Felton has had a decent season for Charlotte, but he still hasn’t taken his game to the next level. He shot a respectable 35.8% beyond the arc as a rookie, but that number plummeted to 33% last year and just 26.6% this season. That’s the OPPOSITE trend of Chris Paul (not a good sign). Raymond is averaging 14.1 points, 6.9 dimes, and 1.2 steals per game this year, but he needs 37.6 minutes to do so, which is not impressive at all.”
“Why did I diss Raymond Felton’s production? In 14 games as a starter, TJ Ford averaged 14.7 points, 7.2 dimes, and 1.3 steals in just 27.5 minutes per game. He’s more productive than Felton is in 10 fewer minutes!”
So I think standard fantasy stats can be useful for evaluating players, but only if you read between the lines. When I created the rosters for all of these State Tournament teams, I certainly wasn’t looking at your basic fantasy stats. For the last spots especially (11th and 12th men), I focused on more advanced stats.
While Hollinger’s PER and Roland’s Rating are sweet evaluators, I relied heavily on the ON court/ OFF court, Offense/ Defense numbers which can be found for each player on 82games…
Using the Pennsylvania/ Maryland roster as an example, the 3 point guards I chose were:
Sam Cassell, Delonte West, and Kyle Lowry. I left Jameer Nelson off the team.
I’m sure some people wanted to write off Cassell, but the dude can still score (17 points off the bench tonight) and he’ll probably be able to back down his 17-year old grandkids and shoot jumpers over THEM 25 years from now. However, his defense has definitely deteriorated.
West is just a solid all-around guard, but not spectacular.
Since Sam is old and slow (by NBA standards), he’s no longer an above average defender. So for the 3rd string PG, it made sense to pick someone who is the opposite: young, quick, and a lockdown defender.
Kyle Lowry fits that mold much more so than Jameer Nelson. Check out Lowry’s page on 82games.
http://www.82games.com/0708/07MEM1D.HTM
Memphis gives up 108.7 points per 100 possessions when Lowry is on the court, but a whopping 115.6 points per 100 when he’s off, a 7 point difference. The offense is 2 points worse when he’s on the court, but his quickness and strength enable him to get to the basket and get to the line quite often, so his change of pace from Cassell will still be beneficial.
Meanwhile, Nelson’s page on 82games suggests that he’s a decent defender (106.2 points per 100 ON court vs. 109.1 points per 100 OFF), but those numbers are misleading because his backup is Carlos Arroyo, who would simply rather not play D.
Clearly, Lowry is a better defender than Nelson, so I opted for him. But the stats were just a supplement anyway, because I have an image of how the 2 play already in my head. While Lowry’s playmaking skills need improvement, I like his bulldog frame and bulldog game. And if I want to use THAT as my sole reasoning for preferring him over Nelson, so be it.
My point being…
There are MANY factors that I use to evaluate a player’s ability. When I talk about fantasy hoops, I try to focus strictly on how those factors affect his ability to perform in the standard fantasy categories. However, these NBA State Tournament articles clearly have nothing to do with fantasy stats. In fact, I’m throwing ALL stats out the window when I decide who wins each of these matchups. I’m considering at the strengths and weaknesses of each individual as well as the team as a whole, playing out the matchup in my head, and then deciding which team would win. I hope you all are doing the same, rather than voting simply by fantasy stats or, worse yet, by which state you represent.
I’m not trying to single you out Damian, because I’ve seen you make solid comments before. So to quote Mark Jackson, “You’re better than that!”
I’m making a point here because I don’t want to be considered as simply a “fantasy hoops expert” and for people to assume that all of my basketball articles are centered around that. That’s why I created my own site. Several sites have recently asked me to write about fantasy hoops for them, but I don’t want to be constricted by just that.
Fantasy hoops is great, but there are advanced statistics that are much more meaningful than your standard fantasy stats. However, there’s also much more to basketball than just statistics and much more to life than just basketball. I hope my site reflects this.
-E Squared
“Billy - If we’re playing a pickup game and I have the #1 pick, I’m taking LeBron. My #2 pick might be Chris Paul, but that doesn’t mean I think either guy is the best in the league. However, if Kobe can’t lead the Lakers to the Western Conf. Finals this year, I will have to reconsider.”
First: quick note, I mentioned KG instead of CP3 in my original post, but I’d also throw Paul into that discussion. Tyson Chandler + David West + rest of Hornets << Lamar Odom + 1/2*Pau Gasol + 1/2*Andrew Bynum + rest of Lakers. Also, where does TMac fit into the discussion of best players after their recent run? His supporting cast pales in comparison to Lamar Odom, Pau Gasol and the rest of the Lakers, yet they keep winning. Though they may not win tonight, but that only brings in another player into the “Best Player in the League” discussion KG, who helped lock down Tim Duncan in a Celtics win the other night. KG and KB are tied in Roland rating, yet KB has played 20% more minutes.
Better yet, how are we defining “Best Player in the League”? Is it who I want taking the last shot in a game or who I want to have the ball in last in a game. KB definitely ranks high there, but so does Chauncey, LBJ, Tony Parker, Baron Davis, DWade, Steve Nash and TMac to name a few. Or is it, Who would you pick first if you wanted to win a championship _this_ year? Would you really take KB over TD if that’s the case? If you would rather take LBJ in a pickup game, wouldn’t that mean you think he’s a better player than KB?
It really all depends on how you define the question of Who’s the Best in the League.
WOW… WOW… WOW
Evil E… No doubt… I did not expect this extremely comprehensive comment/explanation…
I never said fantasy is the same like reality – that would be a very extreme opinion, which is 100% incorrect… I thought we are having fun here and I simply used the stats… Barkley is the one who is extreme because I heard him several times saying – fantasy stats mean NOTHING in reality basketball and that is simply not true or at least a “slight” hyperbole… however I absolutely agree that any given player can have different values in fantasy and reality… I also believe there are more NBA players who have very similar values in both fantasy and reality (some experts may disagree here, I am just stating my opinion)… the opposite is true for players like Billups, Battier etc. who are considerably more valuable in one of the two (reality in their case)…
I don’t know why you assumed somebody is considering you as a fantasy hoops expert ONLY… It is so obvious your site has a lot more than fantasy hoops…
I’m happy you replied Damian. I wasn’t really sure why you incorporated my rankings into this, but I know you know the difference between a players fantasy value and his actual value. I’m not sure WHAT people consider me, but I felt the need to make those statements for anyone out there who may be reading…
When did Barkley say this stuff? I like the guy, but he clearly takes firm stances on everything, even when he’s not familiar with said subject. It makes for better TV, so I’m sure he’s encouraged to do so.
Good point Billy. It’s all about your definition of “best.”
How about this?
Best winner: Duncan
Best team leader: Garnett
Best player under 6-5: Paul
Best talent/ potential: LeBron
Best @ making his teammates better: Nash
Best basketball ABILITY: Kobe
Ability - The quality or state of being able to do something (physical, mental, etc.)
So there you go. I consider Kobe Bryant to be the best at “being able to play basketball.” He’s not the best team leader or the best at making his teammates better, which has prevented him from being the best winner. Of course, that could change this season.
When selecting a team (to win now or to build a franchise), there are many factors that I would consider ahead of ability, which is why I wouldn’t take Kobe #1. But in terms of being able to play basketball, I consider Kobe to be the “best.”
Fair?
I heard Barkley at least twice this year being very very unsympathetic on fantasy… In general also like him; he is very funny and I also agree with you that being extreme in his opinions is kind of a trademark but there is a big chance he is often “asked” to be firm to attract audience…
About the BEST definitions… I think most of the people, including myself, should agree with Garnett, CP3, Lebron and Nash… the different opinions would be with the best winner and the best player (ability)…
PS: I slightly delayed my reply because I am in Madagascar (yeah, yeah I wish to be a vacation… but it is business) and while there is “some” internet access I am having really hard time… I should be back this week on time for the fantasy playoffs…