Real or Mirage?

Are Devin Harris and Spencer Hawes for real?

One of the biggest keys to successfully managing your fantasy team is figuring out which statistical surprises are REAL (going to continue), and which ones are MIRAGES (not sustainable).

Each week or so, I will list at least 1 player from each of the following categories: playing well and I expect it to continue, playing poorly but I expect it to end, playing poorly and I expect it to continue, and playing well but I expect it to end. So here is the 1st edition of “Real or Mirage.”

Devin Harris being a stud point guard = REAL

On October 26th, I sent an email out to all of my Draft Guide customers suggesting “10 Players to Target” based on where they were currently being picked. I mainly chose late-round value picks such as Nate Robinson, Rudy Fernandez, Thaddeus Young, Zach Randolph, and Nene, but one early round player that I suggested was Devin Harris. Among my comments were “How in the world are people still sleeping on this guy?” and “If he’s still available after pick #50, do NOT let him pass you!”

If you got the message and followed up on it by selecting Harris, you must feel very good about that decision. His first 3 games weren’t that special and he’s missed another 3 due to an ankle injury, but in his last 4 games, he’s averaging a whopping 31 points, 6 assists, 4.3 rebounds, 1.8 steals, 1.3 threes, and just 2 turnovers per game while making 52% of his field goals and 50-of-57 free throws (89.5% FT). So much for the injured ankle!

Honestly, his stat increases should have been easy to predict, which is why I was surprised that so many people were sleeping on him. He had shown flashes of brilliance in Dallas, but after he got traded to New Jersey last season, his minutes rose and he played a much bigger role in their offense. When Richard Jefferson and Marcus Williams got traded and Bostjan Nachbar and Nenad Krstic signed to play in the Russian League over the summer, I immediately bumped Harris up my rankings.

Clearly, more shot attempts were coming his way in ‘08-09, and his current scoring numbers reflect that. Another thing I really like about Harris is that he’s 25 years old and in his 5th NBA season, so he’s just entering his prime. Devin’s current per game numbers make him a Top 15 player, but what’s crazy about that is that his 3-point shooting and steals can improve quite a bit. For his career, Harris averages 1.7 steals per 36 minutes, but he’s currently averaging just 1.1 thefts per contest. Similarly, his 29.4% shooting from downtown is bound to improve. Congrats if you drafted Harris (I have him in 2 leagues), because the guy is FOR REAL.

Rasheed Wallace being a Top 25 player = MIRAGE

There are several reasons to believe that ‘Sheed’s excellent start is NOT a fluke. He seems to have been rejuvenated by new coach Michael Curry, and he clearly has a better relationship with him than he did with Flip Saunders. Wallace’s numbers were rather mediocre the past 3 seasons, but he didn’t have much respect for his old coach, and you got the feeling that he could play better if he just applied himself a little more. Has the coaching change motivated Wallace to play harder? Perhaps.

Another reason his numbers are up is quite obvious. After playing just 30.5 minutes per game last season, he’s averaging 36.5 minutes thus far in ‘08-09. That’s reason #1 why I think his superb start is a mirage. He’s played 38+ minutes in 5 of his last 6 games, which is a trend that’s unlikely to continue. His minutes will slowly start to fall as the season goes along, which will limit his numbers somewhat. Speaking of numbers, his rebounding stats are off the charts compared to previous seasons. Wallace is currently averaging 9.7 rebounds per 36 minutes and pulling down 15.6% of total rebounds, and 27.9% of defensive rebounds available. Those numbers are well above his career averages of 7.3 boards per 36 minutes, 12% of total rebounds, and 18.5% of defensive rebounds available.

The extra minutes and rebounds are a direct result of Antonio McDyess being traded and Jason Maxiell and Amir Johnson not getting as much playing time as expected. Amir began the season as the starting power forward, but now he’s barely playing (his minutes in the last 4 games: 8, 15, 0, 8). Johnson’s career average of 10.6 boards per 36 minutes is very solid, so he was expected to steal some rebounds away from ‘Sheed this year. Similarly, Maxiell was expected to take another step forward in his 4th NBA season. He averaged 21.6 minutes per game in ‘07-08 and was extremely effective. The loss of McDyess was expected to open up more playing time for Mad Max, but instead it’s had the opposite effect. Maxiell has played 20+ minutes just once in the last 7 games, and when he’s played, he’s stunk up the joint (his +/- numbers are terrible).

While it might not happen immediately, Maxiell and Johnson will eventually start to earn more minutes. They are key pieces to Detroit’s future, so to stunt their development now would be a mistake. The Pistons will also need a boost from their youngsters in the postseason, and if Curry wants to rely on them in the Playoffs, he’ll have to give them more minutes in the regular season. And then there’s the veteran McDyess, who could very well return to Detroit. There have been rumors of him going to a few different teams, but you have to think that Detroit is a leading candidate. If it happens, that’s another player who will cut into ‘Sheed’s production.

Wallace has also been shooting the ball very well, as his 46.0% FG shooting is his highest mark in 6 years and his 41.4% 3P shooting is his highest mark in 10 years (when he attempted just .6 treys per game). Once his 3-point shooting starts to slide, his FG% is going to take a hit and he won’t be nearly as valuable. Another reason to be cautious is that he’s had fast starts like this before. In November ‘06, he averaged 35.3 minutes, 13.7 points, 9.6 rebounds, 2.0 blocks, and 1.5 threes per game on 45.7% FG and 39.3% 3P shooting. But after that month, he averaged just 31.5 minutes, 12.0 points, 6.7 rebounds, 1.5 blocks, and 1.4 threes on 41.5% FG and 34.2% 3P shooting. His current numbers won’t decline that drastically, but if you own ‘Sheed, you may want to start shopping him around.

Rudy Gay not being a Top 40 player = REAL

Before the season started, a lot of people considered Rudy Gay and Danny Granger to be on the same level. Both had breakout seasons last year, and both guys have emerged as franchise cornerstones. So a lot of people thought, “if I miss out on Granger in round 2, no problem, I’ll just pick Gay.” I wasn’t so sure about this line of thinking, which is why I made a clear distinction between the two in the Player Profiles section of my Draft Guide. I said that I was “a little worried about (Gay) now being ‘the man’ in Memphis… which is why I think his FG% is going to fall” and that Granger is “a safer pick than Rudy Gay.”

While Granger has emerged as an absolute stud in ‘08-09, Gay is struggling to have Top 50 value, even tho his points, assists, steals, blocks, and FT% are nearly identical to his ‘07-08 numbers. My main concern with Rudy was that a large chunk of his value last season was attributed to his solid FG% (46.1%) and decent outside shooting (34.6% 3P, 1.7 threes per game). Granger has proven to be a much more accurate 3-point shooter, and I worried that if Gay’s 3P% slipped it would be a double whammy, as both his FG% and threes made would take a hit.

Sure enough, Rudy is shooting just 26.5% from beyond the arc this season, which has dropped his numbers down to 42.3% FG and 1.2 treys per game. While O.J. Mayo has proven to be NBA-ready, Memphis doesn’t have many other consistent scorers or shooters. Mike Conley Jr. has been terrible and their inexperienced big men have been up and down. On the flipside, T.J. Ford has been excellent and vets like Troy Murphy and Rasho Nesterovic have been solid for the Pacers (not only is Granger more polished and experienced, but he has more help surrounding him as well).

To top it off, Rudy’s rebound numbers are also down this season thanks to a couple of rookies. Marc Gasol has proven to be a better rebounder than his brother Pau, and Darrell Arthur has proven to be a better rebounder than Kwame Brown/ Stromile Swift. Unless one of those guys gets injured, don’t expect Gay to start pulling down a lot of boards. Clearly, there’s a big difference between Danny and Rudy, so if you drafted Gay to be your #2 man, you’re going to be in for a long season.

Carmelo Anthony not being a Top 40 player = MIRAGE

Anthony is currently averaging a career-high 8.1 rebounds, 4.1 assists, and 1 three per game, but the rest of his numbers are way down. His 20.6 ppg average is the lowest mark of his career, and he’s going to the line just 7.4 times per game (his lowest average since his rookie year). After averaging a rock solid 1.3 steals and .5 blocks in ‘07-08, he’s averaging just .7 and .3 respectively this season. Of course, the biggest problem is that he’s shooting just 39.5% from the field, after shooting a career-best 49.2% FG in ‘07-08.

Despite having the lowest FG% of his career, his 3P% is actually at an all-time high. He’s made 38.5% of his shots from beyond the arc this year, which is well above his previous best and a very good sign for the ‘08-09 season. Oddly enough, he’s made just 39.7% of his 2-point shots this year, after making 50.5% of all his shots from inside the arc in the past 3 seasons. I’ll trust a 222 game sample size over a 10 game sample any day, which is why his slow start is surely a mirage.

It should also be noted that Denver hasn’t had the easiest schedule to start the season. They’ve already faced the Lakers, Celtics, Cavs, and Jazz, and 3 of those games were on the road. Both the Lakers and Celtics are limiting opponents to under 42% shooting from the field, so that helps to explain Carmelo’s shooting woes. Surprisngly, Chauncey Billups has led the Nuggets in scoring in 4 of the 6 games since he arrived, but you have to assume that the pass-first point guard will eventually start to share the ball more. When this happens, Anthony will be the main recipient.

For further proof that his slow start is a fluke, just look at his split stats from last season. In November and December of ‘07, Anthony shot just 45.5% from the field, but after that he dominated, making 51.7% of his shots the rest of the way. When ‘Melo is on, he’s one of the hardest players in the world to defend, and it’s only a matter of time before he gets hot. He’ll be a Top 50 player in no time, and in 8-cat leagues, I still think he can crack the Top 25.

Thaddeus Young being a reliable starter = REAL

Thaddeus Young is another player who I said to target in your draft: “If owners in your league didn’t notice that he was draining threes left and right in preseason, then he may fall to the 12th round, making him a certified steal.” It’s still early, but Young is off to a brilliant start. The excellent outside shooting touch that he displayed in the preseason wasn’t a fluke, as he’s currently shooting 38.2% from beyond the arc and making 1.2 treys per game. Philadelphia is one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the league, but it’s certainly not T. Young’s fault. Since the two Andres (Miller and Iguodala) are poor outside shooters, Young will continue to get a lot of looks from beyond the arc.

Even more impressive is Young’s 52.5% FG shooting, which is that high because he’s made 55.5% of his 2-point shots. That number isn’t a fluke either, as he shot 53.9% from the field as a rookie last season. Of course, the most surprising stat is that Young currently leads the 76ers in scoring with 16.2 points per game. I’m sure that Elton Brand will eventually claim that spot, but Philly has a balanced scoring attack that allows Young, Brand, Miller, and Iguodala to all attempt at least 11.5 shots per game, so it’s not like Thaddeus is going to fall off the map.

While his offensive numbers are the ones that pop out at you, Young is getting big minutes thanks to his defense. The 76ers’ defense surrenders 110.3 points per 100 possessions with him off the court, but just 96.5 points per 100 with him on. Unfortunately, his tenacious D hasn’t translated into stellar steals and blocks numbers yet (.9 and .3 per game, respectively), but better numbers should be on the way. In 22 starts last season, Thad averaged 1.27 steals in just 29.1 minutes per game. It should be noted that he played mostly power forward last season vs. mostly small forward this year, but his steals average will still likely improve. Some people are still doubting the 20-year old, but I think he’s legit.

Spencer Hawes being a reliable starter = MIRAGE

OK- raise your hard if you knew that Spencer Hawes was going to be THIS good. We all knew that the 2nd year center would get a chance to prove himself while Brad Miller was suspended, but I don’t think anyone expected Hawes to play this well at the tender age of 20. From a fantasy standpoint, the 7-footer has been phenomenal. As a starter, he averaged 12.6 points, 8.0 boards, 2.0 blocks, 1.4 steals, and 1.2 threes in 32.0 minutes per game. But what’s shocking to me is the numbers he’s put up since being moved to the bench. In 8 games since Miller’s return, Hawes has averaged a rock solid 11.5 points, 7.1 boards, 1.9 blocks, and .5 threes in just 25.8 minutes per game. Despite his minutes being reduced by 20%, Spencer’s stats have been extremely solid.

Thus far, Hawes has continued to be a reliable fantasy player while coming off the bench, but will this trend continue? I don’t think so. Before you start calling me a “Hawes hater,” let’s examine the facts. He started the season on fire, making 9 of his first 12 shots from downtown. Since then, he’s gone 1-for-11 from 3-point land. He proved that he has the range, but it would be absurd to expect him to shoot better than 50% for an entire season. Another stat where I need to see more to believe is blocked shots. Hawes currently ranks 9th with 1.92 rejections in 28.2 minutes per game. However, at the University of Washington, he averaged just 1.7 blocks per game in slightly more minutes (28.9). It’s quite rare for players to swat more shots in the NBA than they did in college, so it won’t surprise me if that number starts to slip.

More importantly, Hawes has gotten the opportunity to put up big numbers due to the absence of several key teammates. As noted, Brad Miller missed the first 5 games of the season due to a suspension. The Kings’ superstar, Kevin Martin, has missed 6 games in a row due to an ankle injury. Francisco Garcia has been out the entire season due to a calf injury. Mikki Moore has missed 2 games in a row, and Beno Udrih got off to a slow start because he was recovering from an injury of his own. The Kings are so depleted right now, that uber-raw rookie Donte Greene got the start and played 35 minutes on Wednesday. Due to all of the injuries, Hawes has been able to play big minutes and take a lot of shots, which has boosted his fantasy value.

When Martin, Moore, and Garcia return, it’s going to be a different story. Sure, Hawes has earned a key spot in the rotation due to his solid play thus far, but I’m expecting his minutes and shot attempts to fall to around 22-24 and 7-8 respectively. That’s not a huge drop-off, but it could be the difference between him being a reliable fantasy option and an unreliable one. This is a real glimpse into what Hawes can do in the future, but for now, I’m calling it a mirage.

The Knicks being a fantasy juggernaut = REAL

In 8-cat leagues, Nate Robinson & Zach Randolph are currently Top 30 players, Jamal Crawford is in the the Top 60, and Wilson Chandler and Chris Duhon are both in the Top 80. If you avoided Knicks players because of their terrible ‘07-08 season, you’re probably kicking yourself now. And while I gave special shout outs to Nate, Duhon, Crawford, and Randoph in my Draft Guide, you can’t say that I didn’t warn everyone else for free.

In my Knicks team preview posted on September 6th, I said not to sleep on “All of the Knicks” except for Eddy Curry. Here is an excerpt:

As I stated above, New York finished 30th in both blocks and assists last season. They also ranked 28th in FG%, 27th in 3P%, 26th in steals, 23rd in FT%, 21st in threes made, and 21st in scoring. It was a terrible season all around, and as a result, their players could fall far in your draft. My target round suggestions are somewhat conservative, but if the players listed below fall to you in those rounds, ALL of them could provide you with better value than where you pick them. One reason of course, is the Mike D’Antoni factor.

In ‘03-04, the Suns went 29-53 and had a pace factor of 92.6. They averaged 94.2 points, 40.6 rebounds, 19.3 assists, 5.1 threes, and 15.2 turnovers per game while shooting 44.3% FG, 34.5% 3P, and 74.6% FT.

In ‘04-05, the Suns went 62-20 and had a pace factor of 95.9. They averaged 110.4 points, 44.1 rebounds, 23.5 assists, 9.7 threes, and just 13.7 turnovers per game while shooting 47.7% FG, 39.3% 3P, and 74.8% FT.

Yes, Steve Nash replaced (guess who?) Stephon Marbury in between those seasons, but Mike D’Antoni played a big part of that reversal as well. And while you can’t expect the Knicks’ turnaround to be as sudden and drastic, their offense will likely be much improved in ‘08-09.

Perhaps I was wrong, because New York ALREADY leads the league with a 98.2 pace factor and 105.3 points per game (the Warriors’ 96.5 pace factor is a distant 2nd). Thanks to Mike D’Antoni, the Knicks are a fantasy force to be reckoned with this season, and from a statistical standpoint at least, they’re FOR REAL.

Mike Miller scoring 10-12 points per game = MIRAGE

Last season, Miller averaged 16.4 points per game for Memphis. He moved to Minnesota over the summer, and has opened up the ‘08-09 season by scoring more than 16 points just ONCE thru 10 games. He had a 25-point outburst vs. the Spurs, but that was a double-overtime game in which he played 48 minutes and his team scored 125 points. If you throw that anomaly out the window, Mike Miller is scoring just 11.3 points per game this season, which is barely good enough to crack the top 100.

His accuracy hasn’t been the problem, as he’s made 43.2% of his threes and 57.9% of his twos. The problem has been his lack of shot attempts. In 366 total minutes, the sharpshooter has taken just 94 shots. Meanwhile, Rashad McCants (who’s shooting just 36.7% FG) has attempted 98 shots in 181 minutes. Yes, Miller’s backup has attempted more field goals in less than half as many minutes! Fortunately, Mike has compensated for his lack of scoring by dishing out a career-high 4.5 assists per game, but if Minnesota wants to be competitive, they need Miller to jack up more shots.

“Sometimes you get into turning down shots to make the extra pass,” Randy Wittman said Tuesday. “Mike does all the right things, but at times he’s got to be a little selfish, too, when he’s got an open shot. I wouldn’t want anybody else taking an open shot. Every time he shoots it, I think it’s going in.”

Miller responded by saying: “I’m not going to force any shots. That’s not the way you’re supposed to play basketball, I don’t think. It’s not the way I was raised to play basketball. I’m going to go out there and I’m going to play basketball the way it’s supposed to be played. If I have shots, I’m going to shoot them. If I don’t, I’m going to find other guys and hopefully make them better.”

You’ve got to admire his unselfishness, but I believe that sooner or later, Miller is going to get tired of watching McCants, Foye, Telfair, Brewer, and Love throw up brick after brick (all 5 are shooting under 39% from the field). For proof that he can turn it on after a slow start, just look at his ‘06-07 season. In November ‘06, Mike averaged a modest 11.7 field goal attempts and 14.0 points per game. After that month, he averaged 15.2 attempts and 19.7 points the rest of the way. His stats won’t jump up THAT much, but he’ll definitely score more than 12 points per game from here on out. If it doesn’t happen, Randy Wittman should be fired.

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