RotoEvil’s exclusive 1+ Block, 77% FT club

What do Amare Stoudemire, David West, and Danny Granger have in common? All 3 were mentioned last year in my 1+ Block, 77% FT article.

Throughout history, the top shot-blockers have usually been poor free throw shooters. However, there are a handful of guys who can block 1+ shot per game without hurting your team’s FT%, making them extremely valuable fantasy players.

I call this exclusive group the 1+ Block, 77% FT club. In ‘07-08, only 10 players made the cut. The year before, there were only 9. To qualify, a player must play in 40+ games, average 1+ block, and shoot 77% or better from the line.

You can view last year’s article here, but below is my new & improved version. First, I will list the 10 players who made the club last season, show what I wrote about them a year ago, recap what they did in ‘07-08, and then predict how those stats may change in the upcoming season. After that, I will analyze the 8 leading candidates to join the club in ‘08-09. These are players who just missed the cut last season and/or have been club members in the past.

*EXCLUSIVE* to my NBA Fantasy Draft Guide will be an article that identifies 10 not-so-obvious candidates to join the club in ‘08-09. I’ll explain why these lesser-known players have a good chance of making the club, and how you can apply this knowledge to help you win your league.

Club member = 1+ Block and 77% FT
GOLD club member = 1+ Block and 77% FT (2+ times)
PLATINUM club member = 1+ Block and 77% FT (5+ times)
DIAMOND club member = 2+ Blocks and 82% FT

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1+ Block, 77% FT club members in ‘07-08

Yao Ming – 2.02 blocks, 85.0% FT

(DIAMOND club member: 1 time + PLATINUM club member: 5 times)

What I said BEFORE last season (1.96 blocks, 86.2% FT in ‘06-07):
Yao has shot over 85% from the line 2 years in a row now, and has a career average of 1.9 blocked shots per game. When he is healthy, he’s the most dominant fantasy center around and his stellar percentages (over 51% from the field the past 4 seasons as well) are the main reason why. Yao was the only player to rank in the top 15 in both blocks (#11) and FT% (#15) last season, and he finished just .04 blocks away from achieving DIAMOND CLUB status: 2+ blocks and 82% FT. Since they started recording blocks (1973-74), a player has blocked 2+ shots per game in a season (40 games min.) 328 times. However, according to my calculations, there have only been 3 Diamond seasons!

1986-87, Kevin McHale = 2.23 blocks, 83.6% FT
1990-91, Kevin McHale = 2.15 blocks, 82.9% FT
1991-92, Larry Nance = 3.00 blocks, 82.2% FT

RESULT / PREDICTION:
Yao finally earned DIAMOND club status last season! He joins McHale and Nance as the only players to ever block 2+ shots and shoot 82% from the line in the same season. With Battier AND Artest stifling opposing forwards this year, I could see Yao getting more weakside blocks, and you know his FT% will be superb as always. Yao is the biggest high-risk/ high-reward player out there, but if he plays 75+ games, he’ll give you an excellent foundation to build on in both blocks and FT%.

Kevin Garnett – 1.25 blocks, 80.1% FT

(PLATINUM club member: 6 times)

What I said BEFORE last season (1.66 blocks, 83.5% FT in ‘06-07):
KG’s FT% was a career-best 83.5% last year and he’s shot 79% or better from the stripe in 5 of the past 6 seasons. He hovered around 75% his first 6 seasons, but has been stellar ever since. His 1.66 blocks per game last year were right around his career average of 1.7, but I’m expecting an increase in ‘07-08. With a little more spring in his step this season, I’m projecting 2 blocks a game (he blocked 2.17 shots in ‘03-04, the same year Minnesota made it to the Western Conference Finals) and 82% free throw shooting.

RESULT / PREDICTION:
Garnett made the club for the 6th time in the past 7 years, but his 1.25 blocks were a career-low and his 32.8 minutes and 9.2 rebounds were well below his career averages as well. From a fantasy perspective, one hopes that the Celtics won’t be as dominant this year, forcing Garnett to play more minutes and put up better stats. His blocks are almost certain to go up, increasing his value for ‘08-09.

Zydrunas Ilgauskas – 1.64 blocks, 80.2% FT

(PLATINUM club member: 5 times)

What I said BEFORE last season (1.26 blocks, 80.7% FT in ‘06-07):
Big Z made the club for the 3rd year in a row and the 4th time overall! Ilgauskas has shot 80% or better from the line 3 seasons in a row, solidifying his spot as one of the best shooting centers in the league. He has a career average of 1.78 blocks per game, but that stat has plummeted in recent years. After erasing a career-high of 2.48 shots in ‘03-04, his average fell to 2.12, then 1.74, then finally 1.26 last season. While Big Z is still very talented and valuable, he is no longer a top tier fantasy center.

RESULT / PREDICTION:
Big Z bounced back nicely in ‘07-08, pumping his blocks back up over 1.6 and setting a career-high with 9.3 rebounds per game. As a result, Ilgauskas joined Yao, KG, Dirk, and Marion as the only active players to make this club 5+ times. For ‘08-09, I’m projecting his blocks to fall just a little, but he’ll still be one of the top free throw shooting centers in the league.

Andrei Kirilenko – 1.51 blocks, 77.0% FT

(GOLD club member: 4 times)

What I said BEFORE last season (2.06 blocks, 72.8% FT in ‘06-07):
I failed to mention AK-47 in last year’s article because he shot just 69.9% FT in ‘05-06 and 72.8% FT in ‘06-07.

RESULT / PREDICTION:
Kirilenko eeked into the club by shooting exactly 77% from the line in ‘07-08. It was a welcome return to form, as he shot between 78-80% FT from ‘02-05. However, his 1.5 rejections per game was a career-low, and a far cry from the 3.32 shots he swatted back in ‘04-05. It’s hard to predict what AK is going to do, but I think his blocked shots are bound to go up this year.

Chris Bosh – 1.00 blocks, 84.4% FT

(GOLD club member: 3 times)

What I said BEFORE last season (1.30 blocks, 78.5% FT in ‘06-07):
Despite being only 23 years old, Bosh is now a GOLD member of the club after making the cut 2 years in a row. After shooting just 70% from the line his rookie year, he has hovered around 80% the past 2 seasons, which is superb for a big man. However, his career average of 1.32 blocked shots per game leaves a little to be desired. He swatted well over 2 shots per game in his only college season, and should be able to block at least 1.5 shots at the pro level. Bosh will be a PLATINUM CLUB member in no time.

RESULT / PREDICTION:
Bosh shot a stellar 84.4% from the charity stripe, but he blocked just 67 shots in 67 games and made the club by the slimmest of margins. After rejecting a career-high 1.41 shots in 33.5 minutes per game as a rookie, his blocked shots have fallen drastically, despite playing more minutes. In ‘08-09, his rejections are bound to increase, and he’s already proven that he shoot over 80% from the line, making him one of the most valuable big men around.

Brad Miller – 1.03 blocks, 84.8% FT

(GOLD club member: 3 times)

What I said BEFORE last season (.62 blocks, 77.2% FT in ‘06-07):
After blocking .78 shots in ‘05-06 and just .62 shots in ‘06-07, I declined to include Miller in last year’s article.

RESULT / PREDICTION:
Brad barely made the club by swatting 74 shots in 72 games in ‘07-08. He’s a career 80% FT shooter, but his career blocks average is just .79 per game. I foresee fewer minutes for Miller in ‘08-09 as the Kings try to develop Spencer Hawes, so don’t expect Miller to make the club again.

Amare Stoudemire – 2.06 blocks, 80.5% FT

(GOLD club member: 2 times)

What I said BEFORE last season (1.34 blocks, 78.1% FT in ‘06-07):
Amare’s ‘05-06 season didn’t really count because he only played in 3 games, but his free throw shooting has improved considerably each season. After shooting just 66.1% from the line his rookie year, he was up to 78.1% last season. Since Stoudemire gets to the line often, this is a definite plus for the Phoenix Suns and Amare’s fantasy owners worldwide. It will be interesting to see if he can keep his FT% at 78+ while bringing his blocks back up to 1.5+ per game. If so, he’ll be extremely valuable this season.

RESULT / PREDICTION:
Extremely valuable indeed. Amare shattered his previous career-high of 1.63 blocks per game and shot a blistering 80.5% from the line last season. He was even more money after the All-Star break, when he made 83.4% of his freebies while going to the line 10.2 times per game. When you couple that type of shooting with his freakish athleticism around the rim, it’s almost unfair. While no one wants to undergo major knee surgery, Amare’s injury was actually beneficial to both Stoudemire and the Suns because he was forced to spend a lot of time working on his ball-handling and shooting. Now that he’s recovered, he still has the uber-athleticism, but the rest of his game is much more polished. Also, he recently stated how happy he is that Terry Porter is stressing defense, so he may even block more shots in ‘08-09.

David West – 1.30 blocks, 85.0% FT

(club member: 1 time)

What I said BEFORE last season (.73 blocks, 82.4% FT in ‘06-07):
West missed some games due to injury last season, but still put up some solid stats. He really poured it on in April, when his team was fighting for the playoffs: 41.3 minutes, 25.3 points, 8.0 boards, 2.6 dimes, 1.33 steals, and 1.00 blocks on 55.4% FG shooting and 84.0% FT shooting. West’s sparkling FT% has been over 82% for 2 years in a row, so now he just needs to block some more shots. In ‘05-06 he erased .86 shots per game, meaning he is very capable of joining the club in ‘07-08.

RESULT / PREDICTION:
West proved to be more than capable, setting career-highs in nearly every single category in ‘07-08. His increase in blocks was especially remarkable, considering he almost doubled his ‘06-07 average. He shot over 82% FT every single month last season, which is why I like him a lot more than Carlos Boozer and Tim Duncan. The blocks may decline a bit, but last season’s stats weren’t a fluke.

Danny Granger – 1.05 blocks, 85.2% FT

(club member: 1 time)

What I said BEFORE last season (.74 blocks, 80.3% FT in ‘06-07):
Granger’s minutes jumped from 22.6 per game in his rookie year to 34.0 last year, so naturally his points, assists, steals, and threes made all went up as well. However, his rebounds and blocks both declined, which is unsettling for fantasy owners. He totaled 384 boards and 62 blocks in 1762 minutes in ‘05-06, but just 381 boards and 61 blocks in 2789 minutes in ‘06-07. While he clearly spent less time at PF in his second season, he still needs to get those big man numbers up. I mean, we’re talking about a guy who averaged 9.0 boards and 2.0 blocks per game in college. Indiana is going to be awful this season, but if Granger can boost his blocks and make the club, that will be a definite bright spot.

RESULT / PREDICTION:
Granger was more than a bright spot last season; he was a shining star who led many fantasy teams to league titles. He improved his boards and blocks quite a bit, and they could go up even more without Jermaine O’Neal. From the line, Granger was superb, breaking Reggie Miller’s team record for most free throws made in a row without missing (65). Don’t be surprised if his 85.2% FT (and FT attempts) continue to rise, making him even more valuable. Who will be this year’s version of Danny Granger? Buy my fantasy guide and find out!

Pau Gasol – 1.48 blocks, 80.7% FT

(club member: 1 time)

What I said BEFORE last season (2.14 blocks, 74.8% FT in ‘06-07):
Before ‘07-08, Gasol was a career 72.4% FT shooter (2125-2937) who had never shot 75% from the line in a season. Needless to say, I wasn’t expecting him to shoot 80% FT last season.

RESULT / PREDICTION:
In just 2 years, Pau went from shooting under 70% to over 80% from the charity stripe. However, in the same time frame, his blocks fell from around 2 per game to just 1.5. For ‘08-09, I’m projecting a slight increase in blocks, but a decline in FT%.

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Leading candidates to join the club in ‘08-09

Shawn Marion – 1.35 blocks, 70.7% FT

(previous PLATINUM club member: 8 times)

What I said BEFORE last season (1.52 blocks, 81.0% FT in ‘06-07):
Marion has been a member of this club ever since he joined the league in ‘99-00. He’s going into his 9th season and has been a rock solid fantasy performer year in and year out. He has blocked 1.5 shots or more 3 years in a row and has NEVER shot below 80% from the line (83.0% for his career). Just two more years in the club and he’ll be elected chairman.

RESULT / PREDICTION:
Out of nowhere, Marion’s FT% plummeted and he missed the club for the first time. So instead of taking over the #1 spot, he and THURL BAILEY are still tied for the most club appearances (8) in NBA history. The Matrix’s length and hops allow him to block a shot per game in his sleep, and I’m predicting that he’ll re-join the club in ‘08-09 as his FT% normalizes.

Dirk Nowitzki – .92 blocks, 87.9% FT

(previous PLATINUM club member: 6 times)

What I said BEFORE last season (.80 blocks, 90.4% FT in ‘06-07):
The reigning MVP failed to make the club for the first time since ‘99-00 because he did not block enough shots. He blocked a career-high of 1.53 shots per game in ‘04-05, but he barely managed to swat half of that in ‘06-07. Perhaps the best shooting big man of all-time, Dirk’s FT% will never be a problem. He’s nailed over 90% of his freebies for two years in a row and over 85% for 6 years in a row. Last season also marked the first time since his rookie year that he did not make at least 1 three-pointer per game, which is somewhat disappointing. Fantasy owners had gotten used to a block and a three per game from Dirk, and they will have high expectations for him in ‘07-08.

RESULT / PREDICTION:
Dirk missed the club once again, falling just 6 blocks shy. He’s still one of the best free throw shooters in the league, but at age 30, you wonder if his best shot-blocking days are past him. I think he’ll miss the blocks cut-off again in ‘08-09, but the rest of his stats will more than make up for it.

Elton Brand – 1.88 blocks, 78.7% FT

(previous GOLD club member: 2 times)

What I said BEFORE last season (2.24 blocks, 76.1% FT in ‘06-07):
Elton ruptured his achilles tendon before I wrote the 2007 version of this article, so I didn’t mention him.

RESULT / PREDICTION:
Brand’s stats were good enough to make the club for a 3rd time, but he played just 8 games last season. For his career, he’s blocked 1289 shots in 614 games for a 2.1 per game average, so no worries there. He’s also improved from the line quite a bit. After shooting sub-75% FT in each of his first 4 seasons, Brand has shot above 75% FT for 5 years in a row now. He’ll be very close to the 77% cut-off, but I think he’ll re-join the club this season.

Rasheed Wallace – 1.68 blocks, 76.7% FT

(previous club member: 1 time)

What I said BEFORE last season (1.57 blocks, 78.8% FT in ‘06-07):
The fiery veteran finally made the club! Rasheed has blocked over a shot a game throughout his career but did not shoot 77% from the line until last season. Despite the solid FT%, Wallace’s FG% was a career-low 42.3% and his 12.3 points per game was his lowest average since the ‘98-99 season. His ability to block shots and make threes has long fancied fantasy owners, but at 33 years of age, his minutes and fantasy value are on the decline. His career average on free throws is just 71.5%, meaning you can’t really count on him to shoot that well again.

RESULT / PREDICTION:
‘Sheed was just one missed free throw away from making the club for the second year in a row. The last 2 years from the line have been Wallace’s best, as he had previously shot over 75% FT just once in his first 11 seasons. Surprisingly, he also blocked a career-best 2.0 shots per 36 minutes last season. He’s likely going to average under 30 mpg for the first time in 10 years, but he could still make the club in ‘08-09.

Chris Kaman – 2.77 blocks, 76.2% FT

(previous club member: 1 time)

What I said BEFORE last season (1.55 blocks, 74.1% FT in ‘06-07):
Kaman made the club in ‘05-06, when his percentages were a very solid 52.3% FG and 77.0% FT (to go with 1.38 bpg). He increased his blocks to 1.55 per game last year, but his percentages declined to 45.1% FG and 74.1% FT. With Elton Brand out for most (if not all) of the upcoming season, Kaman is going to have to step up big time for the Clippers. He probably won’t do enough to lead them back to the playoffs, but if he can just bump his FT% back up, he’ll make it back into the club.

RESULT / PREDICTION:
Kaman just missed out on making the club last year, but he stepped up big time in Brand’s absence. He set career highs with 12.7 boards and 2.8 blocks per game, which were well above his previous highs of 9.6 and 1.5, respectively. Most of his numbers are going to fall this season, but his shooting %’s may go up, in which case he might make the club for a second time.

Dwyane Wade – .73 blocks, 75.8% FT

(previous club member: 1 time)

What I said BEFORE last season (1.22 blocks, 80.7% FT in ‘06-07):
D. Wade was the only guard to meet the club requirements, which shows how much of a B.A.M.F. he is. The last time a “guard” made the club was when Paul Pierce did it in ‘01-02, and the last time a guard blocked as many shots was Vince Carter in his rookie year (’98-99), when he swatted 1.54 per game. Wade’s FT% has risen each year, a necessity considering he led the league in free throw attempts per game last season. He still doesn’t make many threes, but D. Wade’s ability to block shots while maintaining solid percentages (over 49% FG shooting the past 2 seasons as well) makes him the #1 fantasy guard when healthy.

RESULT / PREDICTION:
Even in a down year, Wade led all guards with .7 blocks per game. Unfortunately, his shooting %’s fell to their lowest levels since his rookie year. Now that he’s healthy entering the ‘08-09 season, you can expect his numbers to bounce back, meaning he has a very good shot at making the club this year.

Rudy Gay – .98 blocks, 78.5% FT

What I said BEFORE last season (.95 blocks, 72.7% FT in ‘06-07):
Rudy shot just 72.7% FT as a rookie, so I left him off my list.

RESULT / PREDICTION:
Rudy Gay had a brilliant breakout season in his 2nd year in the league, but he missed the 1+ block, 77% FT club by a mere 2 blocked shots. In his rookie campaign, he averaged .95 blocks in just 27 minutes per game, so he clearly has 1.25+ block potential. In ‘07-08, the Grizzlies allowed opponents to shoot a whopping 48.0% from the field, which was worst in the league. Assuming they focus a little better on defense this season, that should bode well for Rudy’s rejections. Gay was surprisingly consistent from the line, shooting over 76% FT every month except for April. That’s a good sign, because he attempted 3.9 freebies per game last season and that number will likely rise in ‘08-09. I’ll be very surprised if he doesn’t make the club this season.

Kevin Durant – .94 blocks, 87.3% FT

What I said BEFORE last season (1.91 blocks, 81.6% FT in college):
Durant probably has the best chance of any rookie at making the club. He blocked almost 2 shots per game and shot over 80% from the line in his only season at Texas and will get as many minutes as he can handle in Seattle. In the NBA Summer league, Durant was superb from the line, making 39-46 free throws (84.8%). Whether or not he can do that over 82 games remains to be seen, but Durant will get to the line often and help out your team’s FT%. Surprisingly, he didn’t block a single shot in summer league action, but with his incredible length and athleticism, you’d think he’ll be able to block a shot a game.

RESULT / PREDICTION:
For a 19-year old rookie, Durant had a very fine season. Many people (myself included) expected him to hit the “rookie wall,” but he actually played much better after the All-Star break. He cut back on his 3-point attempts, which resulted in his FG% soaring from 40.2% before the break to 47.6% FG afterwards. He also did a better job of getting to the free throw line, increasing his attempts from 5.3 to 6.1 per game. Meanwhile, he shot over 80% from the line EVERY SINGLE MONTH, so don’t be surprised if he wins a FT% crown one of these years. While his .94 blocks per game fell just short of making the club last season, there’s reason to be optimistic. Durant had 2 or more blocks in 25% of his games played, while Chris Bosh (who made the club) had 2+ swats in just 20.9% of his games played. Durant is a valuable fantasy player, because he’s also capable of joining the 1+ three, 1+ steal, 1+ block club, which only 4 players made last season (LeBron, Marion, Granger, and Rasheed). And to think, he has another year before he can legally drink!

CONCLUSION:

I have just reviewed the 10 players from the 1+ Block, 77% FT club for ‘07-08, as well as 8 leading candidates to join the club in ‘08-09. Among them are many superstars, proving how valuable their versatility is. Guys who can block shots while making a high percentage of their free throws are a rare commodity, and thus they should be treasured in fantasy hoops. If one of the superstars on this list falls to you in your draft, you’ll be getting an immediate leg up on the competition in these 2 categories. Work hard to preserve this advantage! Just because you draft Yao Ming and his stellar 85% FT shooting doesn’t mean that you now have the luxury to draft a bunch of poor free throw shooters. Instead, focus on drafting more 80% FT guys to team up with Yao, to ensure that your team finishes the season atop the FT% rankings.

If you can add a 2nd or 3rd player from this list without overreaching, your fantasy team will receive a huge boost. Think about it: the average fantasy league has 12 teams, but there are only 18 players on this list. If you can grab 3 of these guys, that leaves just 15 players for the other 11 teams, meaning none of them will have the excellent FT% / Block balance that you do. This is a great club to belong to, so pay attention and your fantasy team will be headed in the right direction.

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Not-so-Obvious candidates to join the club = ???

This is where David West & Danny Granger’s names would have been last year, so if you want to find out some valuable breakout players for ‘08-09, be sure to purchase RotoEvil’s NBA Fantasy Draft Guide when it becomes available on October 1st.

*Up Next: RotoEvil’s exclusive 1+ Three, 47% FG club

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