Shaq for Shawn Marion!!!
February 6, 2008 by Evil E
This trade intrigues the hell out of me, but it’s a bad move for the Suns.
Crazy, huh? If Shaq passes a physical today (no guarantee), he’s getting traded to Phoenix for Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks.
Miami has no reason to NOT make this trade.
They’re currently the sorriest team in the NBA. Shaq turns 36 next month, his body is wearing down, and he still has 2 years and $40 million left on his contract after this season.
They’re so far removed from their 2006 Championship that you almost feel sorry for them. They don’t need Shaq, they need to rebuild. The Heat are desperate, so they may as well make this trade.
But what this trade tells me is that the Suns are desperate as well. They don’t believe their current squad has what it takes to win it all (I don’t blame them). They don’t foresee Shawn Marion in their future because the rift between him and everyone else has grown too large. So they’re willing to roll the dice to see if Shaq can lead them to the promised land.
I don’t buy it.
For quite some time now, we’ve heard about Shawn Marion feeling under-appreciated in Phoenix. Well, I’m on Marion’s side. What he does for the Suns is unmeasurable. Does he benefit by playing with Steve Nash in Mike D’Antoni’s system? Hell YES. Are there other players around the league whom you could plug into Marion’s spot and get the same result? Yes, but only a few (Josh Howard and AK 47 come to mind).
If anyone knows how valuable Marion is, it’s the Suns’ coaching staff. I just finished reading Seven Seconds or Less, and I believe their organization knows how much they’re going to miss the Matrix.
Or at least they think they do.
Because the reality is that they’re going to miss him that much and then some. It’s like that Joni Mitchell song:
“Don’t it always seem to go, that you don’t know what you’ve got till it’s gone?”
Don’t get me wrong, Shaq is going to help out the Suns a lot. But his positives are NOT going to outweigh the negatives of losing Shawn Marion. Deep down, the entire Phoenix organization probably feels the same way, even if they won’t admit it. The fact that they’re willing to make this trade anyway tells me that they’re just as desperate as Miami. The sad thing is, Shawn Marion will probably be just as under-appreciated in Miami as he was in Phoenix, if not more so…
Fantasy Effects
The Matrix is going to have a tough time matching his usual stud stats now that he’s out of Phoenix. Marcus Banks may get a chance to play now. He could have some big scoring nights, but won’t dish out enough assists or be consistent enough to warrant consideration.
Since Shaq won’t play anywhere near Marion’s 36-38 minutes per night, expect Boris Diaw to play a bigger role yet again. If he’s available, I suggest picking him up. Shaq was barely worth owning before the trade, and now his minutes will likely go down. Amare will probably rest more often as well, so his numbers may take a slight hit. And while Shaq can finish no doubt, Nash’s assists might decline without all of the Shawn Marion alley-oops.
Two blockbuster deals in less than a week. And the trade deadline is still 2 weeks away!
[...] Evil E wrote a fantastic post today on “Shaq for Shawn Marion!!!”Here’s ONLY a quick extractIf Shaq passes a physical today, he’s going to Phoenix for Marion and Marcus Banks. While this trade intrigues the hell out of me, it’sa bad move for the Suns. [...]
Honestly I don’t think it’s that bad of a deal. You get a proven winner, a big body that has playoff experience. Let the Suns run and gun that’s cool but when playoff time comes what has been their weakness…half court offense. Things slow down that can’t beat San Antonio, Dallas, and now Los Angeles (Amare/Shaq vs. Pau,Bynum). You get a rejuvenated Shaq this will only last two years which is perfect that is how much time is left on his contract. You dump Marion (whom I like) before he was going to opt and you would have got nothing. You move Amare to a 4 and off 5 where he belongs and he will start torturing people. You give Amare a tutor to teach him how a big man plays defense. Not sure how many picks, but if you get Miami’s 1st round this year you will be getting a nice young talent from college who will develop in the system when all this older players get older and you are looking at let’s say a few years from now. Diaw, Stoudamire, 1st Rounder this year, and Barbosa good building blocks for the future. Don’t get me wrong I like Matrix allot but he wasn’t getting his dues in Phoenix and as good as he is on defense you can still pound him on the block (Luke Walton does it lol) I think Miami is thinking more about Dwades future than Shaqs b/c honestly if they don’t help Dwade out don’t be surprised if you see him in a Bulls uni in a few years.
Some people are saying the Suns will be slower AND larger. I kind of disagree because Shaq won’t start right away and he doesn’t have to play the 35+ minutes that Marion was averaging. The Suns will probably look to get more production out of Hill, Diaw, and especially the elusive and speedy Barbosa. Barbosa is better than a lot of starters on other teams and he should get more than the 29 min that he’s averaging now–the guy is super aggressive, always attacking from beyond the arc and penetrating to the basket. He’ s the guy I would target in for increased fantasy production…
Well, Shaq passed his physical today so it looks like this trade is happening.
Rich - I’m not sure where you heard about draft picks being exchanged, because there’s no way in hell the Heat would give up this year’s 1st rounder. I guess that’s what I don’t like about this trade. They’re risking everything on the chance of winning a title this season or next. I mean, I guess that’s what they have to do since Nash isn’t getting any younger, but the long-term outlook for this team does not look good.
Yes, I know Marion was going to opt out and bounce after this season, but I think they should have gotten a piece to build for the future.
Barbosa is a talented young scoring guard, but he’s yet to prove that he can play point after Nash leaves and he really hasn’t improved that much in recent years. Another thing I got out of the 7 Seconds book is how they portray Barbosa to be somewhat of a headcase. I like comparing him to Monta Ellis since they’re considered the 2 fastest guys in the league and both are young, proven scorers. Monta has shown his drive to be the best player he can be this season by improving his defense and point guard abilities. Yes, Barbosa’s short-term fantasy value should see a nice bump, but I doubt whether or not he has that drive to be the best.
With 4 years and $36 million left on his deal after this season, the Suns are crossing their fingers that Diaw steps up his game. If he and Barbosa don’t make big strides over the next 2 seasons, the Suns are going to be in a world of trouble after Nash, Shaq, and Grant Hill retire.
Steve - You do make a great point about Shaq mentoring Amare. This could be HUGE for Amare….IF he accepts the tutelage. If Amare’s ego gets in the way, it could turn into a disaster.
I still think the Suns are going to suffer from the loss of Marion this season because they’re not going to have much time to gel with Shaq before this year’s playoffs. In the offseason, I suggest they go after someone to replace the Matrix. .The guy I would target is Matt Barnes, whom I consider to be a poor man’s Matrix. If they could land Barnes somehow, and Shaq show’s that he’s still got some left in the tank, I would consider them legit 2009 contenders. But I don’t see it happening this season.
On a sidenote, David Stern is probably jumping around and throwing money in the air with glee at the thought of shoving a Kobe-Shaq matchup down our throats 20 more times next season. Fun stuff…
Whether the Suns are contenders this season and next will definitely hinge on how much Barbosa and Diaw step up. They are exciting players to watch and I’m eager to see how they respond with Diesel playing by their side (and not Matrix).
Like Rich said, its not that bad of a deal. I can’t help but cringe from some of the criticism Suns’ management is getting for making this trade. I think the trade obviously wasn’t about building a championship team for the future–it was about building a championship team NOW given all the circumstances (Marion’s dissatisfaction playing w the Suns, Shaqs final 2 years, etc). Sure, Shaq will turn 36 next month, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t capable of helping put together a championship run this year or next. David Robinson won a championship when he was 37 and Kareem won one when he was 40! Kareem even made it to the Finals again the following year. Shaq is no slouch. Like Rich said, he’s a big body with championship experience. Opposing players won’t be able to have their way in the middle; now they have go up against a better shot-blocker–beware Perkins, Dampier, Ming, R. Wallace, Gasol/Bynum!!. I think he’s more invigorated than ever to finish his career with another championship (a fifth title with 3 different teams! How many centers in NBA history have achieved that? NONE–not Jabbar, not Chamberlain, not Russel. He KNOWS he has a better opportunity NOW to win another championship than if he remained a Heat. He’s got a shot at being stamped as the GREATEST CENTER ever–IF he wins a 5th and maybe a 6th championship. Okay, enough of me being a cheerleader for Kerr (or whoever is responsible for making this trade happen).
The main questions are: WILL he stay healthy, WILL he avoid injury–if Shaq is smart about his health and understands the consequences of suffering another serious injury, I think the Suns made a pretty good gamble…
I don’t see Marions stats taking that much of a hit. The numbers he’ll lose w/o Nash, he’ll gain by clearly becoming the 2nd scoring option.
Their going to look like the old Utah Jazz with Malone-Amare, Stockton-Nash and Ostertag-Shaq! If the Suns learn to play the half-court it might be alright, but if it leads to a title I don’t know?
Marion might score as many points in Miami as he did in Phoenix, but he’s going to attempt way more shots to do so. He’s currently shooting 52.6% from the field, but that number is going to PLUMMET.
I’m expecting fewer steals, blocks, and assists from his as well. Marion has basically been a top 5 fantasy player for each of the last 8 seasons as a Phoenix Sun. Now I think he’s going to struggle to be a top 20 player.
2 more Suns worth mentioning (for non-fantasy reasons):
1) Grant Hill
Hill is having a remarkable season when you consider that most people wanted to write him off as soon as a couple years ago. He might be the Suns’ best defender after Raja Bell and will be relied on heavily with Marion gone. People are saying Shaq’s health will be vital. What about Grant Hill?
2) D.J. Strawberry
This kid can ball! He looked good in last night’s game and could be a factor if Hill, Bell, or Barbosa get injured. He doesn’t have Marion’s size, but he has some of his athleticism and defensive abilities. I think the Suns feel good about his future, and he could turn into a really nice player. Also, you can tell he’s been hardened by having to live in his father’s shadow.
“Daaaryyl, Daaaryyl, Daaaryyl!”
Just traded Marion for Ming. Curious about what you think would be good value for Marion right now before his ytd averages start to decline.
Shaq on the post Amare cutting to the basket. Hill or Barbosa weakside cutt. how can you stop that? Double shaq down low the treys will start raining down. Shaq can also dish the ball. Speed can only get you so far but Championship basketball you have to realize size matters (that’s what she said lol). The only downfall I see example last nights game for Phoenix one steal in 58 minutes that is horrible. Besides Raja and Grant no one on Phoenix can play D.
Well I for one agree with what Barkley is saying on this trade. It gives Pheonix a big-body that can match-up against the likes of Duncan and other big centers in the West. Sure they won’t see much from him during the regular season but that’s classic Shaq. Besides, isn’t it time they got more out of that expensive contract with Diaw? His decline in production from last season to this one had to be troubling for management.
Along with the Webber aquisition at Golden State I’ll be looking to see how these older, slower vets work into the upbeat tempo of their new respective teams. I will bet that Webber doesn’t add the “juice” Nelly said GS needs to make a playoff push this year. Any takers?
You agree with Barkley saying that Shaq is a big body who can match up against other big bodies? I don’t think anyone will disagree with that.
And what if the Warriors don’t need any juice? They can make the playoffs without Webber. Portland is starting to fade and their inexperience will start to show down the stretch. So the only team for them to worry about is Houston. It basically comes down to Yao staying healthy and T-Mac not playing like a sucka vs. Nelson not playing Webber too much to the point where he hurts them.
You know, Nellie also said that Belinelli had a chance at supplanting Monta in the starting lineup over the summer, so I’m hoping his Webber comments were just to get Al Harrington riled up. He’s a master of mind games and has all kinds of tricks still up his sleeve…
Or maybe they’re just getting a package together to trade Webber for Artest so the Sactown fans can have their favorite King back!
maybe dallas should trade diop,stackhouse,harris,and george for miami’s d-wade yea right,the west will be won by the suns or the spurs
how bout if Dallas trades those guys (and Marvin Agar + $3 million) for J. Kidd? You think Dallas would be contenders then?
Unless Bynum returns to pre-injury form in time for the playoffs, I concur with big al on the west being won by either the Suns or the Spurs…