Shooting Guards

Kobe is still on top, but Monta Ellis is rising fast…

It’s the stretch run for fantasy owners, so now is a good time to evaluate all of the top players. I’ve grouped them into “levels” or tiers. Level 10 players are the “Best of the Best” and Level 1 players you don’t even want to think about owning.

These rankings are based on how I see each player finishing out the season.

The # of games left is important for most people, so I’ve factored this in and included the weekly schedule for each player in parentheses (starting with Monday, March 3rd). Playing time can drastically change down the stretch, so this has been taken into account as well. If a team will be fighting for a playoff spot or a top seed until the very end, that bodes well for the stats of their top players. If a team has a playoff spot locked up already (see: Detroit Pistons), they’ll probably choose to rest their starters down the stretch. If a team is out of the playoff race already, they may or may not continue to give their top players big minutes. I’ve tried to evaluate each player on a case-by-case basis.

For those of you looking to make last-minute trades, the separate levels I’ve created should be helpful. I obviously don’t recommend trading a Level 7 guy for a Level 6 straight up. For 2-for-1 trades, I suggest following a “50% rule.” This means I would only consider trading away 1 stud for 2 lesser players if their total value is greater than 1.5 times the Level number. So, would I trade away Kobe (10) for T-Mac (7) + Durant (5)? No way. Conversely, trading away 2 players for 1 stud is fine as long as the total value you’re giving up isn’t 50% greater than the player in return. Let me know if you find these rankings beneficial. Enjoy!

Level 10 - Best of the Best

Kobe Bryant (22 games - 3, 3, 4, 4, 3, 4, 1)

Is this the year that Kobe wins MVP and takes his team to the NBA Finals? Quite possibly. His finger injury hasn’t slowed him down at all, as evidenced by the 52 points he dropped on Dallas on Sunday. The Lakers are rolling right now and trying to secure a top seed in the West, so don’t expect Kobe to rest too much down the stretch.

Level 9 - Fantasy’s Finest

Manu Ginobili (24 games - 4, 4, 4, 4, 3, 3, 2)

Using per minute stats, Ginobili has been a top 3 fantasy player for the 2nd year in a row. His February numbers were ridiculous, but those have fallen recently thanks to Tony Parker’s return. He may rest a bit down the stretch, but Manu has been too good to even think about benching.

Level 8 - Stud Superstars

Monta Ellis (24 games - 4, 3, 4, 4, 4, 3, 2)

Chris Paul, Dwight Howard, and Monta Ellis are the top three 22 year olds in the league. Period. Not bad for a kid who was picked #40 in the ‘05 draft after the likes of Salim Stoudamire and Daniel Ewing. He averaged 26 points on 60.2% shooting in February, making him just the 9th guard in NBA history to shoot over 60% for an entire month. The Mississippi Bullet is unstoppable right now!

Level 7 - Premium Picks

Vince Carter (23 games - 4, 3, 4, 4, 3, 3, 2)

Since Kidd got traded, Carter is averaging 22.4 points, 7.4 boards, 4.9 assists, 1.6 steals, and 1.4 threes per game on 50.4% FG shooting. Those numbers are much better than his season averages, and it looks like he’s trying to prove that the Nets can still make the playoffs without Kidd. One concern is that the Nets are starting to play Devin Harris and Marcus Williams in the backcourt together, but as long as they’re in the playoff hunt, expect VC to log big minutes.

Ray Allen (24 games - 3, 4, 4, 4, 3, 4, 2)

Even tho his numbers have declined drastically this season, he’s still one of the top fantasy options at the two. His FG% had been sitting in the low 40’s for most of the season, but he broke loose in February, hitting 49.5% of his shots from the field and 46.4% of his threes. His minutes may dip slightly down the stretch, but the Celtics have plenty of games left to play.

Jason Richardson (23 games - 4, 3, 3, 4, 4, 3, 2)

J-Rich is having a solid season for Charlotte, posting career-highs in blocks and threes in addition to his usual 20 point, 5 rebound, 3 assist, 1+ steal line. He’s also shooting 73.6% from the line after chillin’ in the 60’s the past 4 years. The Bobcats are out of the playoff race, but J-Rich should still finish the season strong.

Mike Dunleavy (22 games - 3, 3, 4, 3, 4, 3, 2)

Dunleavy dropped 36 points, 6 threes, and 4 dimes on Friday and followed that up with 36 points, 4 threes, and 2 steals on Sunday. That’s all you need to know: Mike D is having a career year. His numbers are very similar to Paul Pierce’s, but you could have drafted Lil Dun 7 or 8 rounds later. His confidence is sky high right now, so don’t expect much of a drop-off down the stretch.

Tracy McGrady (23 games - 3, 4, 4, 3, 4, 3, 2)

I think T-Mac is an overrated player (in fantasy and reality), but now is his chance to prove me wrong. With Yao Ming out, he’s going to have to carry the Rockets on his achy back. Expect a modest stat increase across the board for T-Mac as he tries to silence critics like me (his 68.7% FT shooting is inexcusable).

Joe Johnson (24 games - 4, 4, 3, 4, 4, 3, 2)

Johnson has been extremely consistent this season, but his points and FG attempts have been declining slightly each month. I’m expecting that trend to end in March and April. He hasn’t made the playoffs in 3 years, so he’ll be trying mightily to end that streak. There was some concern that Mike Bibby would eat into his stats, but Bibby isn’t 100%, so JJ will remain one of the top picks at shooting guard.

Level 6 - Solid Starters

Jamal Crawford (23 games - 4, 3, 3, 4, 4, 3, 2)

If you own Crawford, you should send Stephon Marbury a thank you note, because Crawford has been a fantasy monster ever since Starbury went AWOL. His poor FG% is tough to swallow, but he more than makes up for it with the rest of his stats. My only concern is his 41.6 minutes per game, which is the 2nd most behind Allen Iverson. With the Knicks playing for ping pong balls, it would make sense to ease Jamal’s minutes back a bit down the stretch.

Kevin Martin (23 games - 4, 3, 3, 4, 4, 3, 2)

Martin started the season on fire, but his points, FG%, 3P%, and shot attempts were all well below his season averages in February. He’s still the main man in Sacramento, but guys like Udrih and Artest are cramping his style.

Michael Redd (22 games - 3, 3, 2, 4, 4, 4, 2)

Redd’s post All-Star stats seem rather strange. His assists are way down and he’s attempting and making far fewer threes, but his points and FG% have soared as a result. Redd always gets his stats, but I’m wondering how good he really is. After all, the Bucks are 17-33 with Redd in the lineup and 5-5 without him.

Brandon Roy (22 games - 3, 4, 3, 4, 3, 3, 2)

The Blazers have lost 10 of their last 13 games and will miss the playoffs for the 5th year in a row. Still, Brandon Roy showed everyone what he’s made of and Portland has a bright future. Roy does a little bit of everything, but he doesn’t dominate any statistical categories, which limits his fantasy value. He’s shooting just 37.8% FG since the All-Star break and the Blazers may start to give him more rest. He’s still a solid starter, but don’t expect him to carry your team.

Level 5 - Okay Options

Anthony Parker (24 games - 4, 4, 4, 3, 4, 3, 2)

Parker has really come on strong recently. Since the All-Star break, he’s averaging 36 minutes, 15.4 points, 5.3 boards, 1.3 steals, and .3 blocks per game on 55% FG and 80% FT shooting. His ability to make threes (1.7 per game) while still shooting a solid 47.2% from the field is very valuable for fantasy teams. With a nice schedule down the stretch, Parker looks like a solid option.

Leandro Barbosa (23 games - 4, 3, 3, 4, 4, 3, 2)

Barbosa’s minutes and stats haven’t really been affected by the Shaq trade. He’s not very consistent, but he’s capable of exploding on any given night, so you may as well keep him in your lineup. If doesn’t look like the Suns will have the luxury to rest Nash down the stretch, but if they do, Barbosa will benefit.

Kevin Durant (23 games - 4, 4, 3, 4, 3, 4, 1)

Durant scores a lot of points, but his lack of rebounds and assists really limits his fantasy value. To make matters worse, he’s shooting just 38.6% from the field while turning the ball over 4.1 times per game since the All-Star break. Is he starting to hit the rookie wall? Quite likely. I suggest trying to move him after his next big game.

Richard Hamilton (23 games - 4, 3, 3, 4, 3, 4, 2)

Same thing I said about Sheed and Billups applies to Hamilton:

In ‘06-07, he averaged 36.8 mpg for the season, but just 29.2 mpg in April.
In ‘05-06, he averaged 35.3 mpg for the season, but just 28.5 mpg in April.

Rip’s already averaging his fewest minutes in 5 years, and that number will decline even more in April. That makes him just as okay option down the stretch.

Jason Terry (22 games - 3, 4, 3, 3, 4, 4, 1)

Terry is dishing out just 2.6 assists since Kidd arrived, so his value is limited there. However, he’s capable of dropping 20 points and hitting several threes on any given night, and will probably do so at least half the time. However, if his shot’s not falling, he’s not offering much help elsewhere.

Level 4 - Borderline Ballers

Matt Carroll (23 games - 4, 3, 3, 4, 4, 3, 2)

Carroll knows how to score, and he’s proven that once again. He’s gotten big minutes since Gerald Wallace went down, and is dropping 17 points, 5 boards, 2.8 threes, and 1.3 steals per game on 51% FG and 79% FT shooting. Don’t expect that many steals usually, but he can definitely help you out in the scoring and shooting categories. Crash is on the shelf for at least another week, but Carroll’s value will diminish when Wallace returns.

Larry Hughes (23 games - 4, 2, 4, 4, 3, 4, 2)

Hughes is starting for the Bulls, and the change of scenery should be good for him. Over his last 5, he’s averaging 33.4 minutes, 18 points, 4 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 1.4 steals, and 1.4 threes per game. He’s always been able to put up big statlines, but poor shooting and inconsistency usually do him in. He could have solid value down the stretch, but he’ll have to fend off Hinrich, Sefolosha, and Gordon for minutes.

Ben Gordon (23 games - 4, 2, 4, 4, 3, 4, 2)

Gordon has been a big disappointment this season and now he’s just a borderline baller. Since the All-Star break, his minutes are down (34.9 to 30.6) and so is his scoring (20.0 to 16.1). He’s still capable of big games, but wait till he gets hot before starting him again.

J.R. Smith (23 games - 3, 4, 4, 3, 4, 4, 1)

Over the past month, JR Smith is averaging 15.6 points, 3.4 threes, and 1.1 steals in just 20.3 minutes per game. His monster 43 point, 8 three performance was impressive indeed, but George Karl does not like giving this guy 30+ minutes. Chucky Atkins may return soon, and if he performs well, he’ll probably steal a good chunk of JR’s minutes.

Wally Szczerbiak (22 games - 3, 4, 4, 3, 3, 3, 2)

Over his past 4 games, Wally World is averaging 13 points, 2.2 threes, and 1 steal per game on 7-7 from the line, but just 18-53 from the field. Wally is capable of shooting much better, so expect his points to go up down the stretch. He’s going to play a key role for the Cavs until Pavlovic and Gibson return, so start him while you can.

Cuttino Mobley (25 games - 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 3, 2)

Mobley is averaging just 9 points on 37.8% FG shooting, 2.5 dimes, and .5 threes per game since the All-Star break. He’ll be worth playing if he gets hot since the Clippers play so many games, but keep him reserved for now.

Level 3 - Respectable Reserves

Rashad McCants (24 games - 3, 4, 4, 4, 3, 4, 2)

McCants is averaging 29 minutes, 17.4 points and 1.7 threes on 48.5% FG shooting since the All-Star break. However, with Randy Foye healthy and Corey Brewer and Kirk Snyder pushing for minutes, he’ll be tough to rely on down the stretch.

Raja Bell (23 games - 4, 3, 3, 4, 4, 3, 2)

Raja was hurt by the Shaq trade more than anyone else. With the Matrix gone, Bell has had to step up his defense even more. Since the All-Star break, his minutes are up to 38 mpg, but the rest of his stats have plummeted. He’s still knocking down 2 threes per game, but he’s strictly a 1 cat pony at this point.

Ronnie Brewer (22 games - 4, 4, 3, 3, 3, 3, 2)

Brewer is getting just 26 mpg since the break, so he’s essentially a 2 cat player right now. Still, his 54.4% FG shooting and 1.8 steals per game are valuable to fantasy squads.

Willie Green (22 games - 3, 4, 3, 4, 3, 3, 2)

Green has been a fringe player all season long, but he’s been pretty solid since the All-Star break. Over his last 8 games, he’s averaging 16.9 points, 1 steal, .5 blocks, and .9 threes per game on a solid 51% FG shooting. His upside is limited, but he seems like a fairly decent play right now.

Deshawn Stevenson (23 games - 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 3, 2)

In 50 games before the All-Star break LAST season, Stevenson shot 49.2% from the field. I remember him and Arenas talking about how he could hit 50% for the season. After the break, he shot just 42.7% and his FG% has plummeted to just 37.9% this season! Of course, he’s had a lot more pressure to score with Arenas and Butler out. If both of those guys return, he could go back to being a decent shooter, but keep him reserved for now.

Carlos Delfino (24 games - 4, 4, 4, 3, 4, 3, 2)

Delfino’s 3.2 threes, 9.1 rebounds, and 1.7 steals per 48 minutes are pretty solid for a 2 guard, but he’s averaging just 25 mpg this season. Still, he’s made 5+ threes in a game four times in the past two months, so he can help you out if the timing is right.

Juan Carlos Navarro (23 games - 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 3, 2)

Navarro has averaged 31 minutes, 12.4 points, 2.5 dimes, and 1.6 threes per game since the break, but he’s shooting just 38.7% from the field and his minutes are going to decline with Mike Miller back in action. When he’s hot and playing big minutes, he’s one of the best sources for threes in the league, so he’s worth stashing if you need help in that cat.

Thabo Sefolosha (23 games - 4, 2, 4, 4, 3, 4, 2)

Sefolosha is currently out with a groin injury, but his February numbers were quite solid all-around. In 31.6 minutes, he averaged 12.3 points, 5.3 boards, 3.1 dimes, 1.2 steals, .8 blocks, and .5 threes per game on 47% FG shooting. The Bulls backcourt is crowded now, but Thabo has shown that he can put up nice numbers.

Kyle Korver (22 games - 4, 4, 3, 3, 3, 3, 2)

Korver has combined for 34 points and 6 threes over his last 2 games, but it’s hard for him to have value when he’s only playing 24 minutes per game. Only start him if you desperately need threes.

Level 2 - Potential Pickups

For Threes:

Morris Peterson (24 games - 4, 3, 3, 4, 4, 4, 2)
Brent Barry (24 games - 4, 4, 4, 4, 3, 3, 2)
Michael Finley (24 games - 4, 4, 4, 4, 3, 3, 2)
Luther Head (23 games - 3, 4, 4, 3, 4, 3, 2)
Sasha Vujacic (22 games - 3, 3, 4, 4, 3, 4, 1)
Daniel Gibson (22 games - 3, 4, 4, 3, 3, 3, 2)
Juan Dixon (23 games - 4, 3, 3, 4, 3, 4, 2)
Jerry Stackhouse (22 games - 3, 4, 3, 3, 4, 4, 1)

For Steals:

Tony Allen (24 games - 3, 4, 4, 4, 3, 4, 2)
Marko Jaric (24 games - 3, 4, 4, 4, 3, 4, 2)
John Salmons (23 games - 4, 3, 3, 4, 4, 3, 2)
Marquis Daniels (22 games - 3, 3, 4, 3, 4, 3, 2)