Team Analysis: Cool Hand Evil

You can call this my Paul Newman tribute team. I just hope that Luke Ridnour doesn’t screw things up!

Cool Hand Evil is 1 one of my 2 teams entered in the “NFBBC.” It costs $650 to enter, and each league champion gets $3,500. There are 5 leagues total, and the overall winner gets an extra $3 grand, so anyone competing in this thing is quite serious. So serious in fact, that 11 of the 60 competing teams used my Draft Guide (that I know of).

8-cat Roto. 16 players per roster. You start 4 guards, 4 forwards, 2 centers, and 2 utility. You are given a $1,000 Free Agent Acquisition Budget to bid on available players. No trading allowed.

First, I will give you a “Draft Analysis” of my team. I will go through each round, listing the player that I chose, players that I wanted, and guys that I passed on. I’ll also explain what I was thinking when I made each decision, and you’ll get to see which picks I really regret. Afterwards, I will do a “Category Analysis” of Cool Hand Evil. I’ll project what place I’m going to get in each category, and I’ll predict how many total points I’m going to finish the season with. It’s not an exact science, but I think you’ll find it interesting.

DRAFT ANALYSIS

Round 1 – Dwyane Wade (#5, G)

I Wanted: Wade
Passed On: Dirk

While I certainly wouldn’t have minded taking Chris Paul #1 overall, I really wanted the #5 pick so I could take D. Wade. I’m sure that a lot of people who drafted Dwyane in ‘06 or ‘07 were scared to pick him this year, but after watching him play in the Olympics, I didn’t have any doubts. Baron Davis silenced his “injury-prone” critics last season by playing in all 82 games, and I think that Wade could do the same thing this season. He’s off to a great start, and he looks much more comfortable shooting from beyond the arc.

Round 2 - Carmelo Anthony (#20, F)

I Wanted: Granger, Deron
Passed On: Duncan, Joe Johnson

I was really hoping to get Danny Granger here, but the 3 picks before me were Granger, D. Williams, and Bosh. I considered Tim Duncan, but I didn’t want to dig myself in a FT% ditch early on. So I opted for ‘Melo, who should be rock solid across the board. Two things that I like early on: 1) he got rid of his cornrows, which is a sign of maturity, and 2) he’ll be more focused playing with Billups than he was with Iverson.

Round 3 – David West (#32, F)

I Wanted: West
Passed On: Calderon

I wanted a big man in round 3, and I was pleased to see West still on the board at #32. He’s off to a slow start, but I’m not worried about him at all. Surprisingly, Kidd and Calderon were still available, but I passed on them since I already had Wade. Both were picked immediately after.

Round 4 – Vince Carter (#41, G)

I Wanted: Bynum, J-Rich
Passed On: Pierce, Roy

I was hoping to snag Andrew Bynum as my #1 center here, but he was taken 3 picks earlier. So instead I went for a shooting guard. J-Rich was taken 2 picks earlier, so I opted for Vince over Pierce, Roy, Turkoglu, and Stephen Jackson. I was hesitant to take the aging star, but when he’s on, he’s a top 20 fantasy player. Can he stay healthy and motivated for the whole season?

Round 5 – Andris Biedrins (#56, C)

I Wanted: Biedrins
Passed On: Okur

I needed a center, so I went with one of my “young breakout stars” in Biedrins. I considered picking Okur, but decided that I needed a more traditional center. I’m very pleased with that decision, because Andris has gotten off to an incredible start. One owner actually picked Kaman AND ‘Sheed before Biedrins, which was a huge mistake.

Round 6 – Jamal Crawford (#65, G)

I Wanted: Mo Williams
Passed On: TJ Ford, Ray Allen

I chose Crawford as one of my “career year candidates,” but I was definitely concerned about his poor preseason numbers. However, my draft tracker told me that I needed threes and FT% help, so it made sense to go with Jamal. I was tempted to grab TJ Ford (another career year candidate) to bolster my assists, but his lack of threes scared me off. Crawford has already nailed 25 treys in just 7 games, so I’m loving this selection.

Round 7 – Zach Randolph (#80, F/C)

I Wanted: Kirilenko
Passed On: Lee, J. O’Neal

I was hoping to get the stat-stuffing abilities of AK-47, but he was taken 2 picks before me. So I went with Zach Randolph, who most people were sleeping on for some reason. He’s shooting just 43% from the field right now, but he’s getting plenty of shot attempts, so I’m not too worried. Randolph has pulled down 13+ boards in 5 straight games, and he’s on pace to set career-highs in steals and threes. Mike D’Antoni is helping out his stats quite a bit.

Round 8 – Manu Ginobili (#89, G)

I Wanted: Salmons
Passed On: Hamilton, Terry, Arenas

I was considering John Salmons here, but he was taken 2 picks earlier. This left Rip Hamilton as my highest ranked player still available, but my draft tracker told me that I needed help in steals and threes. Rip is only average in those categories, so I decided to roll the dice on Manu Ginobili’s health. I felt that my top 7 players were solid enough to carry me for awhile, and when Manu comes back I’m going to get a huge boost. Our league doesn’t have IR spots so this was a very risky move, but I’m more optimistic about Ginobili returning than I am about Arenas.

Round 9 – Luke Ridnour (#104, G)

I Wanted: Murphy
Passed On: Udrih, Duhon, Stuckey

I expected Troy Murphy to be available here, but he was picked at the end of round 8, which left me searching for a point guard. Originally, I didn’t have Ridnour ranked very high, but after seeing him get so many minutes in the preseason, I moved him up my board. While the alternatives at this point weren’t that great, I still regret this pick. He started the season with a back injury, and he’s getting outplayed by Ramon Sessions on most nights. I’ll be shocked if he’s still on my team at the end of the year. C’mon Luke!

Round 10 - Nene (#113, F/C)

I Wanted: Nene
Passed On: K-Mart

Missing out on Murphy was a blessing in disguise, because I was able to pick up Nene (another one of my “career year” picks) in round 10. Here’s what I said in my draft guide: “You’ll be able to draft him late because of his forgettable ‘07-08 season, so this is the year to gamble on him.” If you didn’t follow my advice, you’re probably kicking yourself, because the big Brazilian is currently averaging 15.6 points, 8.9 rebounds, 1.4 steals, and 2 blocks per game on a blistering 67% FG shooting. Now do you see why I gave him the highest upside rating possible?

Round 11 – Joakim Noah (#128, F/C)

I Wanted: JR Smith, Prince
Passed On: A. Parker, Amir

I was hoping that JR Smith would fall to me, but he and Tayshaun were off the board at this point. I was surprised to see Anthony Parker still available, but decided that I needed another shot-blocker. I considered Amir Johnson, but it made sense to go with Noah since he’s center-eligible. While Joakim isn’t getting enough minutes to rely on him just yet, I still like his upside and will hang onto him a little while longer.

Round 12 – Jeff Green (#137, F)

I Wanted: T. Young
Passed On: W. Chandler, N. Robinson

I decided to take a young forward with upside in round 12. Thaddeus Young was gone, so I drafted Jeff Green over Wilson Chandler. I was surprised to see Green still available, since he’s obviously going to get big minutes for the Thunder. He’s made just 39% of his shots thus far, but when his FG% improves, his stats should be alright for a backup forward. However, I wish I had taken Nate Robinson.

Round 13 – Mickael Pietrus (#152, G/F)

I Wanted: N. Robinson, R. Brewer
Passed On: Outlaw, Posey

‘Lil Nate and Mario Chalmers were picked at the end of round 12, so I had to look elsewhere for a 3-point shooter. I really liked James Posey here, but I opted for Pietrus due to his guard/ forward flexibility. If you got my draft guide, you know that MP was another one of my “career year candidates.”

Round 14 – Kelenna Azubuike (#161, G/F)

I Wanted: Posey
Passed On: Yi

While I took a long look at Yi Jianlian’s upside, I opted for Kelenna Azubuike, who I knew would be more reliable. He’s currently shooting just 19% from downtown, but he’s getting a ton of minutes and putting up solid numbers. Yi has had some big games, but we’ll see if he can keep it up.

Round 15 – Steve  Blake (#176, G)
Round 16 – Tony Allen (#185, G)

I Wanted: Yi
Passed On: A. Carter, M. Daniels

There wasn’t much talent available at the end of the draft, but I was happy to grab Blake in round 15. His upside is limited, but I’ll milk a few dimes and treys out of him. I nabbed Tony Allen with my last pick, but I’ve already dropped him in favor of Marquis Daniels. Each team is given a $1000 budget for the entire season to bid on free agents, and I had to use $162 of it to pick up Daniels. Anthony Carter went for $257 and Sebastian Telfair went for $203, so I’m pleased with my pickup of Marquis.

CATEGORY ANALYSIS

There are 12 teams per league and 8 equally important roto categories. In a theoretically balanced league, each team would have 1 top 12 player, 2 top 24 players, 3 top 36 players, 4 top 48 players, and so on, for each category. But we all know that leagues and teams aren’t balanced.

If you have 3 guys in the top 12, and 6 guys in the top 36 in blocks, that leaves the remaining 30 top shot-blockers to be divvied up among the 11 other teams, so there’s a good chance you’ll win blocks. So I like to gauge my cats by projecting which of my players will be among the league leaders in each category. This prediction method has been quite accurate in the past, so you may want to consider trying it.

Here’s how Cool Hand Evil looks in each category…

POINTS

2 in the Top 12
Carmelo was 4th in scoring last season and 2nd the year before. Wade was 6th last season and 4th the year before. Both should crack the top 5 in ‘08-09.

4 in the Top 24
Vince Carter was 19th last season, but he should be able to easily crack the top 15 now that R-Jeff is out of town. David West was 24th last season and should average about the same number of points this year.

5 in the Top 36
Jamal Crawford was 25th last season, and he should have no problem averaging 18+ points under Mike D.

7 in the Top 48
I’m being modest here, because Manu Ginobili and Zach Randolph could both crack the top 36. Ginobili was 37th last year, and he’s a lock for 16+ points per game. Randolph ranked 50th last season, but he’ll get more shot attempts this year and is off to a solid start.

ANALYSIS:

Without a doubt, points is my strongest category. I didn’t focus on scorers, it just turned out that way. If Wade and Ginobili combine to play 120+ games, I should be able to easily finish 1st in points scored.

REBOUNDS

2 in the Top 12
Biedrins averaged just 9.8 boards per game last year, but he came off the bench several times and his minutes were limited. Now that he’s getting big minutes, he’ll easily crack the top 5. Zach Randolph was 12th last season, and might be able to crack the top 10 this year since NY is going to jack up more shots.

3 in the Top 24
Nene’s career-high in rebounds is just 7.0, but he’ll have to step up this season since Camby is out of town. 8-9 boards per game is very possible, and he’s off to a great start.

4 in the Top 36
David West was 27th among all players last season, but it should be noted that Tyson Chandler only missed 3 games. If TC misses more games this season, West could sneak into the top 24.

6 in the Top 48
Carmelo was 45th last season with 7.5 per game. Now that Camby’s gone, that number is sure to go up. Noah averaged 7 boards per game after the All-Star break, and he could do that over a full season if he gets enough minutes.

ANALYSIS:

Biedrins & Randolph are going to carry me, and if Nene can stay healthy and if Noah gets enough minutes, my team should be solid. Jeff Green will also help out quite a bit, and Wade and Azubuike are excellent rebounding guards. I’m predicting a 3rd place finish in this cat.

ASSISTS

1 in the Top 12
He’s not a pure point, but Wade was 12th last season and 8th the year before in assists.

2 in the Top 24
Cool Hand Luke averaged just 4 dimes last season, but in ‘05-06 he finished 9th with 7.0 per game. He should be able to crack the top 20 if he remains the starter in Milwaukee, but there are no guarantees.

4 in the Top 36
Carter was 30th last season with 5.1 assists per game, and he’ll be in the top 36 once again. Blake was 32nd last season, but he averaged 6.3 dimes in March-April to close out the season and has more weapons to pass to this year.

6 in the Top 48
Crawford was 35th last season with 5 assists per game, but that will likely fall now that Duhon, who’s more of a pure point, is alongside him. Ginobili was 42nd last season, but that was partly due to Tony Parker missing games. He might not crack the Top 50 this year, but he’ll definitely give me a boost when he returns.

ANALYSIS:

I don’t have one of the studs who you can’t count on for 10+ assists per game, but Wade is solid and I have a few guys who can average 5+. Anthony and Marquis Daniels will also chip in, but if Ridnour loses his starting job I’m going to be in trouble. I’ll be happy with a 6th place finish.

STEALS

1 in the Top 12
Wade was 12th in steals last season, but 4th the year before with 2.1 thefts per game. Now that he’s healthy, he’ll crack the top 5 once again.

2 in the Top 24
Ginobili was 20th last season and 23rd the year before, altho his steals might start to decline now that he’s getting older.

5 in the Top 36
Marquis grabbed 1.1 steals in just 20.9 minutes per game last season. Now that he’s getting big minutes, he should be able to crack the top 36. Carmelo was 32nd last season thanks to a career-high 1.3 thefts per game. Nene swiped 1.6 steals per game as a rookie, and he should be one of the leading big men in that category this season.

Up to 10 in the Top 48
Vince was 38th last season, so he should have no problem cracking the top 48. Pietrus averaged 1.25 steals as a starter last season, and now he can gamble more often with Dwight Howard backing him up. Luke Ridnour nabbed just .6 steals per game last season, but 1.2 the year before and a whopping 1.56 per game in ‘05-06. Crawford has averaged exactly 1 steal per game over the past 2 seasons, but he used to be a 1.3+ guy, so the potential for more is there. Noah grabbed .92 steals in just 20.7 minutes per game as a rookie, so he could easily crack the top 50 in his sophomore season.

ANALYSIS:

Wade is my only stud in this category, but my team is loaded with 1+ steal guys. I’m predicting a 2nd place finish in steals.

BLOCKS

1 in the Top 24
Biedrins was 26th last season among qualified players, but he’s capable of blocking much more than 1.24 shots per game. I fully expect him to crack the top 20 this season.

4 in the Top 36
David West was 24th last season among qualifiers, but I’m expecting his 1.3 blocks to fall slightly. Nene has never averaged 1 block per contest, but he’s come close several times and I’m guessing this is the year he finally breaks thru. Wade swatted just .7 shots per game last season, but 1.22 the year before, which is superb for a guard.

6 in the Top 48
Noah swatted 1.16 shots per game as a starter last season, so he should be able to crack the top 36 this season. Pietrus averaged 1 block per game after the break last season, and now he’ll be defending shorter players.

ANALYSIS:

I’m somewhat worried about blocks because I don’t have a guy that I can count on for 2+ rejections every night. Randolph is a terrible shot-blocker, but I’m hoping that some of my swingmen (Jeff Green, Ginobili, Carmelo, Vince, Azubuike, and Marquis could all crack the top 75) will chip in quite a bit. If my top leather-slappers stay healthy, I should be able to finish 5th in this category.

THREES

1 in the Top 12
Crawford was 9th last season with 2.2 treys per game. In ‘04-05 he made a whopping 2.64 per game, and he’s off to a blistering start in ‘08-09.

2 in the Top 24
Ginobili was 13th last season in threes per game, and more and more of his shots seem to be coming from beyond the arc. Get well soon Manu… I need you!

3 in the Top 36
Vince averaged just 1.15 threes per game before the All-Star break, but 1.54 afterwards. A top 36 finish seems likely since the Nets need him.

5 in the Top 48
Blake was 49th last season with 1.5 treys per game, and he should get more open looks this season thanks to Greg Oden. Pietrus made 1.3 treys per game in ‘06-07, and he has a decent shot to crack the top 50 now that he’s in Orlando (the Magic led the league in threes made last season).

ANALYSIS:

Until Ginobili comes back, I’m going to struggle in this category. However, guys like Azubuike, Anthony, and Ridnour will chip in, and it wouldn’t surprise me if Wade and Randolph set career-highs from outside. Since there are no trades allowed, I’ll have to focus on picking up free agent shooters. I’ll be happy with a top 5 finish, but 6th or 7th place seems more likely.

FG%

2 in the Top 12
Andris Biedrins led the league in FG% last season and was 3rd the year before, so he’s a nice anchor to have. His % may decline slightly this season, but he’ll attempt more shots to make up for it. I’m not looking at last season, when Nene shot 40.8% from the field in just 266 total minutes. I’m looking at ‘06-07, when he shot 57% from the field, including a whopping 62.4% FG on 8+ attempts per game after the All-Star break.

4 in the Top 36
Carmelo shot a decent 47.5% before the break last season, but a rock solid 52.2% FG afterwards. Dwyane Wade made just 46.9% of his shots last season, but was over 49% FG in each of the 2 seasons prior.

6 in the Top 48
Noah shot 48.2% from the field as a rookie, but he made 51.2% of his shots as a starter. David West was 43rd last season at 48.2% FG, and he seems like a lock to shoot that well again thanks in large part to Chris Paul.

Potential Liabilities
Jamal Crawford has been a FG% killer thruout his career (40.3% FG), but once he gets comfortable in the new offense, I’m expecting that aspect of his game to improve. Blake is just a 40.4% shooter for his career, but he won’t take enough shots to hurt me. Ridnour shot just 39.9% from the field last season, but was a semi-respectable 43.3% FG the year before. Green made just 42.7% of his shots as a rookie, but that will surely improve in his 2nd season.

ANALYSIS:

My team is rock solid in this category. I have the league leader from last season, a potential league leader in Nene, and 3 high volume shooters who should be good for around 49% FG. Even guys like Randolph, Carter, and Ginobili are around the league average, while Crawford is the only guy who might really hurt me. I’m expecting a top 3 finish in FG%.

FT%

4 in the Top 24
Crawford was 15th last season at 86.4% FT, and he’s shot over 82% from the line 5 years in a row. Ginobili was 16th last season at 86% FT, and of the 15 guys ahead of him, only 2 guys (Dirk and Kev-Mart) attempted more freebies per game. West was 23rd last season at 85% FT, making him the #2 big man free throw shooter behind Dirk. Ridnour would have ranked 17th last season if he qualified, and is a superb 85.5% FT shooter for his career.

6 in the Top 48
Vince Carter was 48th last season at 81.6% FT, and he gets to the line quite a bit. ‘Melo made just 78.6% of his freebies last year, but he was over 80% FT in each of the 2 seasons prior.

Potential Liabilities
After shooting just 47.5% FT as a rookie, Biedrins has improved every year since. If he can shoot 64% from the line this year I’ll be happy. Nene is a career 64.6% FT shooter, but he shot a semi-respectable 68.9% in ‘06-07. Pietrus has never shot 70% or better from the line in his career, which is unacceptable for a guy who’s solid from behind the arc. Fortunately, he doesn’t go the line that often. Noah shot just 64.2% FT before the break, but a solid 73.7% afterwards, which is a good sign for this season.

ANALYSIS:

While I have a few guys who will hurt me, I don’t have any FT% kilers like Dwight Howard or Shaq. When you include Wade and Randolph with the top 48 guys above, all of my top scorers are above average free throw shooters. A 5th place finish seems very reasonable.

Total Projected Roto Points = 72-78

Projected League Finish = Top 3: guaranteed, Top 2: likely, League Champ: EXPECTED!

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