Team Preview #16: Portland Trail Blazers
August 25, 2008 by Evil E
Rudy Fernandez vs. Bayless and a Greg Oden poll.
LAST SEASON
The Blazers had a 13-game win streak in December and boasted a 22-13 record at one point, but finished at an even .500, which wasn’t bad considering they lost their prized #1 pick before the season. If you’ve wondered why Portland hasn’t been a haven for fantasy stars in recent years, just look at their pace factor under Nate McMillan: 87.9 in ‘07-08 (29th), 88.3 in ‘06-07 (29th), and 87.6 in ‘05-06 (28th). As a result, the Blazers ranked 27th in scoring, 25th in rebounds, and 23rd in FG attempts last season.
OFFSEASON MOVES
Key Additions: Rudy Fernandez, Jerryd Bayless, Ike Diogu, Nicolas Batum
Key Losses: Jarrett Jack, James Jones, Josh McRoberts, Darius Miles
The Blazers were busy on draft day, as they traded away Jack, McRoberts, and their #13 pick (Brandon Rush) to Indiana for Ike Diogu and the rights to Jerryd Bayless. Kevin Pritchard has said that Bayless is “like Jack on steroids,” so he sounds like a pretty solid replacement (for now or down the road?). In college, Diogu dominated the Pac-10 like few power forwards have done before him, but he’s yet to blossom in the pros. He’s still only 24 tho, so if he finds his niche and lands in the right situation (is his 3rd team the charm?), I could see him playing a productive role. Portland picked up a French forward with serious upside (Batum) later in the draft, and also received FOUR future 2nd round picks for Pritchard to play with.
At small forward, the Blazers are going to miss the sweet shooting of James Jones, who signed with Miami over the summer. Fortunately, they’re bringing in one of the most talented & seasoned European players to replace him in Rudy Fernandez. They’ve also signed swingman Luke Jackson, which is notable simply because he played college ball at Oregon. Darius Miles hasn’t played since 2006, but he recently signed a non-guaranteed contract with Boston and Portland will be watching him closely. If Miles makes the team and plays in 10 regular season games, Portland will lose the $18 million (over 2 years) in cap space that they received when they waived him due to a “career-ending” injury.
ROTATION / PLAYING TIME
I would love to watch a preseason game or two before predicting Portland’s rotation, but no worries…
This team is led by Brandon Roy, the 24-year old who reps the Pacific Northwest to the fullest (born and raised in Seattle & a Washington Husky). He underwent arthroscopic surgery to repair a partial tear in the meniscus of his left knee earlier this month and is expected to be out 4-8 weeks, which sounds kind of scary at first, but Brandon sounds pretty optimistic in this recent interview. If he’s good to go, he’ll average 37-38 minutes per game just like last year. In that interview, they also talk about Portland’s tough schedule to open up the season, which pretty much solidifies Steve Blake as the opening night starting point guard if you ask me. He averaged 29.9 mpg last season, and I’ll project him to play 30-32 minutes to start out ‘08-09. Jerryd Bayless turned some heads in the Vegas Summer League, but after watching Rudy Fernandez play in the Olympics, there’s no doubt in my mind that the Spaniard will be the first guard off the bench for Coach Nate. I’ll project Rudy to get 16-20 minutes right off the bat backing up both Roy & Blake, which leaves maybe 8-10 minutes left for Bayless & Sergio Rodriguez (more experience and also a Spaniard) to fight over. We’ll come back to these guys in a minute.
There’s a new man in the middle for Portland, as Greg Oden is set to make his long-awaited NBA debut. I’ll project 28-30 minutes for November-December, 30-32 minutes for January-February, and 32+ minutes for March-April. Backing him up is the veteran Joel Przybilla, who will see his minutes fall from 23.6 to well under 20 this season. Raef LaFrentz is their dusty secret weapon, but we can always reminisce about his last days in Denver (3 blocks & 1.5 threes per game before getting traded to Dallas!). At power forward, LaMarcus Aldridge should see 34-36 minutes of action, while Channing Frye backs him up. Diogu is the odd man out for now, but he’s just one injury away from finding his role.
At small forward, Martell Webster (21 years old, 28.4 mpg) and Travis Outlaw (23 years old, 26.6 mpg) will battle it out once again. Outlaw actually played a lot more power forward last season, but thanks to Mr. Oden, there’s a squeeze on minutes. Long-time readers know that I’d prefer the gazelle to start, but McMillan said they needed Outlaw’s scoring punch on the 2nd unit last season. With scorers like Rudy & Bayless (and even Diogu) now coming off the bench, that point is a little less valid, which is why I think the battle will come down to defense. My prediction? Webster will start on opening night and play 26 minutes to Outlaw’s 22. But when Portland endures their first long losing streak, they will turn to T. Outlaw, who will seize the opportunity and play 28+ minutes the rest of the way.
DON’T SLEEP ON: Rudy Fernandez
If you’re still sleeping on Rodolfo Fernandez, please click here. As you can see, the guy isn’t afraid to attack the rim and he can score from pretty much anywhere on the floor. He has a weird quick release and likes to shoot off-balance, but just check the stats if you don’t think his style is effective. In Spain’s top ACB League, Fernandez played in 30 games last season and put up the following line:
21.2 points, 4.1 assists, 2.2 steals, 3.0 threes, 49.2% FG, 41.1% 3P, 91.4% FT
Those are some very impressive numbers, especially when you consider that he did it in just 28 minutes of action. In the Gold medal game against Kobe & company, things were no different, as Rudy dropped in 22 points on just 13 field goal attempts in only 18 minutes! He also made some sweet passes, handled the rock well, and looked great moving around without the ball. DraftExpress gives Fernandez a Best-case comparison to Kevin Martin (I remember DX raving about Kev-Mart’s offensive skills well before he was drafted by the Kings), and I think that comparison is SPOT ON. Rudy might not get huge minutes to start the season, but at some point during crunch time, he, Roy, and Outlaw are going to play together and something will click into place. Along with Aldridge & Oden, I imagine that being Portland’s best lineup, but if you wait too long to see it, Rudy might already be gone in your league. So don’t sleep!
BE CAREFUL OF: Jerryd Bayless
If any “fantasy experts” are hyping up BOTH Fernandez & Bayless to start the season, I suggest you call SHENANIGANS, because there’s no such thing and it’s not gonna happen. Yes, the Wildcat averaged an impressive 29.8 points in 4 Summer League contests and seems to be an explosive scorer, but he stands just 6-feet-3 with shoes on and sports an average 6-3 wingspan. This means that he’s supposed to be a combo guard, but in those 4 games, he dished out just 5 assists to 15 turnovers. His 1.36 assist-to-turnover ratio in college wasn’t much better, so I’m definitely not sold on Jerryd’s point guard skills.
Which means that he’s currently just an undersized shooting guard. And the last time a 20-year old (Bayless was still 19 a week ago) undersized shooting guard had fantasy value as a rookie was ??? Blake isn’t very flashy, but he’s a dependable veteran PG who’s going to get his minutes. And Rudy & Roy make for an extremely versatile backcourt duo, so unless Roy’s knee gets worse and he has to miss some games, I think you can safely ignore any “Jerryd Bayless = sleeper” talk.
ROUND BY ROUND TARGETS
(Where you should draft these guys in an 8-cat Roto league with 12 teams and 14 man rosters)
Roy: 5th – 6th
Oden: 5th – 6th
Aldridge: 6th – 7th
Blake: 12th – 14th
Outlaw: 13th – 14th
Fernandez: Last round
Webster: Last round (if you need threes)
Bayless: Don’t draft (but watch if Roy can’t play)
Loading ...Related posts:
- 2009-2010 Team Preview: Portland Trail Blazers What is Greg Oden smiling about? LAST SEASON The Blazers posted a 54-28...
Oden is one of the hardest players to project this season, so if you’re part of the 29% saying that he’ll be a Top 25 player or the 8% saying that he’ll be out of the Top 75, let’s see what kind of stats you’re expecting…
Wow, BRoy 5-6th round? I would have thought 4th round at the latest. I had him in the top 60 last year and expect him to improve to the top 50 this year.
Re Oden – I project he will have Al Horford type numbers as a rookie which does not put him in the top 75
i agree with you john about roy….6th round is way too late for him i think…as for oden i don’t see him top 100…i think he is going to be very inconsistent…
I was going to say 4th – 5th for Roy and that probably makes more sense, BUT, I think that Roy is one of those guys who has much more value in real life than he does in fantasy. Mainly because he’s a guard who doesn’t get a ton of steals (1.1) OR threes.(1.0). Most elite fantasy guards average 1.5+ in one of those categories.
If you want to compare him to other high-assist shooting guards, I would give you Joe Johnson (2.1 threes) and Jamal Crawford (2.2 threes) as examples. In real-life, I’ll take Roy over both without a doubt, but in fantasy, I’ll take Joe & Jamal.
As for Oden, I agree that he’ll be inconsistent, but I disagree with the Horford comparison. Big Al blocked just .94 shots per game as a rookie after swatting 1.8 shots per 27.8 minutes in college. Meanwhile, Oden blocked 3.3 shots per 28.9 minutes in college, so he’s clearly superior in that cat. Also, Oden has much better teammates so he should get easier looks than Horford got as a rookie, so I expect him to shoot well over 50% from the field (Al was 49.9% last year).
Still not sure where I’d take him, but definitely NOT in the Top 25.
Given that we are now aware of Roy’s knee surgery and how this will give him some slippage on draft day , Steve Blake looms now to me as one of the biggest late round pick ups …..I’ll be sending Gerald Green back to the board and swiping Blake………thx E
Daniel – Blake plays the one and Roy is the two (most of the time). I don’t think Roys’ knee will be a problem and even if it is, it shouldn’t change Blakes value. Blake is still a late round pick up.
i dont understand how oden could b taken ahead of aldridge
Oden should be able to average a double double, but he might have foul difficulty and may get pushed around in the NBA!
First of all…may the Duck RIP.
Secondly, great preview Evil. I think you nailed the Outlaw/Webster battle and the Bayless vs Rudy situation. Rudy or Bayless may be solid this year from a fantasy perspective, but not both.
I also think that the Blazers might be one of the best teams to watch carefully during the season because of high injury risks to so many players and an unsettled rotation with a lot of potential.
Webster, Pryzbilla, Outlaw, Bayless, Rudy, Diogu could all be strong fantasy players if they win time and/or injuries happen ahead of them.
And as for Oden, I think he averages 16 and 10 and 1.5 but with high fgp and 70-75% ftp.
Oden with a high fgp and 70-75%
Thanks Andrew. I thought it was one of my better previews. Kevin Duckworth
Why is that so hard to believe Jeeves? He shot 61.6% FG and 62.8% FT in college, but he also shot his free throws left-handed for most of the season due to his wrist injury. OK, 75% does seem a little high, but he’s not going to brick 50% either.
If I HAD to make my projections today, I would put up a conservative line of:
12.5 points, 10 rebounds, 1.6 blocks, 53% FG, 68% FT
…and then give him a high upside rating because there’s potential for a lot more.
Top 25 is insanity…
I put him in the top 100 because his risk of season/career ending injury is so high. I would say if healthy he’s a 60-65 guy in his rookie season and I would obviously take him even higher in a keeper league. However, anything above top 45 is just total fantasy land (no pun intended). This is a guy whose body broke down from the strain of a college season! He is totally untested in an 82 game season and that has to push him into the 80-100 range in a non keeper league.
It’s hard to believe Oden has great upside when he has never set foot on the NBA court. If he shot 60% FG in college, then he has to be taken a down a notch when entering the NBA. He met Georgetown in the NCAA tourney and did not dominate Hibbert, so how in the hell is going put up 75% FG in the NBA. Come on now!
Nice article Evil! Some solid predictions…
And now that you’ve called out the fact that Outlaw played heavy minutes at the 4 last season…and that he never really had to compete w/ Webster for swing-time…you think that Travis & Martell are going to platoon at the 3….this could dilute both of their fantasy values….right?….
…but let me throw a monkey wrench into the works!
Mark my words son. Outlaw is trade bait.
Rumor has it that Portland is currently talking about a Buckeye reunion. That’s right…Outlaw for Mike Conley Jr.
And if that (or any other) trade doesn’t go down before the season begins….expect to see Travis logging big minutes at Small Forward. The Blazers will want to showcase the young star to beef up his value.
CMB!! What up kid! 1more4 here…
Oden is garbage. He’s not going to do shit. 2/3 years from now he’ll be good but this coming season let him go. Block shots? Yeah he will. Shoot a high fg%? Maybe, but it’ll only be 3/5 shots a game. He’ll be around 60% from the line. Boards will be under 10. Closer to 8. Scoring will be similar. He’ll get less than 2 dimes a game. ..but yeah he may get his 2+ bpg..
So if my stats are true where would that place him??
..and Jeeves, 75% ft dude.
Clearly, there are conflicting opinions on Oden. I’m definitely not expecting him to dominate, but I think he can pull down 9-10 boards per game because A) Przybilla led the team last year with 8.4 in just 23.6 minutes and B) Aldridge, Frye, Webster, etc. aren’t great rebounders. If Oden was on say…Memphis, I would be much more worried about his offensive output, but the Blazers have so much more talent to surround him with and take pressure off him. Their guards can create, their forwards can shoot, etc.
Speaking of the Grizz, there’s no way in hell that they’ll trade Conley for Outlaw straight up. Giving up on Mike C. after just 1 year would be stupid, and they already have Rudy Gay. Maybe the Blazers can land Lowry, but not Conley. You must be a Blazers fan Bob.
I hope the Blazer land Lowry and start him! I had to pick him up when Ellis went down and if he starts in Portland, whew, I have a great duo there, not to mention that I have agentzero too.
E – When are we going to see a Clipper review? HaHaHa (inside joke)
Frye just had ankle surgery to remove bone spurs and LaFrentz is about to have shoulder surgery. This means:
A) Diogu may actually get a chance to play right away
B) Ghostface Przybilla will still get solid minutes
C) Oden better be ready to go
D) Outlaw could play some PF until Frye comes back, making him a somewhat safer late round pick
I have a bad feeling about Aldridge this season. Not that he’s going to regress as a player but that his minutes are going to take a hit. Aldridge played a ton of Center last year with Oden out, especially when they went small with Outlaw at PF. This year those Center minutes just aren’t going to be available because Oden is simply the better player and will be their defensive anchor. So I just can’t see a repeat of last season’s 35 mpg. something in the 28-32 range seems more likely. It’s also possible that with the added firepower this season his FGA’s will also take a hit.
I am not a believer in Oden I would have see it to believe it!