Team Preview #28: Memphis Grizzlies
September 10, 2008 by Evil E
Assuming the Knicks trade goes thru, how in the world could Employee #8 impact Zach Randolph’s fantasy value and future career?
LAST SEASON
The Grizzlies lost 60 games for the 2nd year in a row, and after 6 1/2 years in Memphis, they traded away Pau Gasol. 1st year coach Mike Iavaroni came over from Phoenix and implemented an uptempo offense. As a result, they were 7th in pace factor (95.3), 7th in threes (7.6) & 10th in scoring (100.7), but 28th in points (106.9) & 30th in FG% (48.0%) allowed.
OFFSEASON MOVES
Key Additions: OJ Mayo, D. Arthur, Marc Gasol, H. Haddadi, A. Walker, G. Buckner, Randolph?, Jaric?
Key Losses: Mike Miller, JC Navarro, B. Cardinal, J. Collins, K. Brown, Darko Milicic?, Crittenton?
On draft day, the Grizz continued their re-building process by trading away rookie prospect Kevin Love, 28-year old Mike Miller, and veterans Brian Cardinal and Jason Collins for rookie phenom O.J Mayo and veterans Greg Buckner, Antoine Walker, and Marko Jaric. While Mayo has a higher ceiling than Miller, Mike was in his prime, so expect the Grizzlies to struggle once again.
They also lost the sharpshooting Juan Carlos Navarro, who returned to Spain. However, two intriguing 7-footers from overseas have been added to their ‘08-09 roster. Pau’s younger brother, Marc Gasol, came over in the Lakers trade and is listed at 7-foot-1, 265 pounds. Iranian center Hamed Haddadi is listed at 7-foot-2, 255 pounds, and he led the ‘08 Olympics in rebounds and blocks. Both are 23-year old prospects with solid skills, but it remains to be seen what kind of impact they’ll have in the NBA.
Of course, the trade that everyone around the league is currently talking about is Zach Randolph to Memphis for Darko Milicic + Marko Jaric. It makes sense for both squads, as Memphis needs a veteran big man and New York wants to get rid of Randolph for multiple reasons. The two teams are going back and forth, as Memphis wants a 1st round pick thrown in and NY wants Kyle Lowry. The Grizz countered by throwing in Javaris Crittenton, and I’m guessing that trade will eventually go thru, but perhaps with a 2nd round pick instead of a 1st.
ROTATION / PLAYING TIME
I’m going to predict this rotation with the assumption that the Randolph trade will happen. At point guard, Mike Conley. enters his second season and Kyle Lowry enters his third, where things should be a bit easier for both. I’m projecting 28-30 minutes for Conley and 24-26 for Lowry. Both are too short for SG, but since their games are very different, I think the Grizz will try play them together for brief stretches here and there.
Mayo steps into the starting lineup immediately and is my preseason pick for most minutes played by a rookie (notice I didn’t say R.O.Y.). I’m projecting 30-32 minutes from the get-go, and perhaps 34-36 by the end of the season. If Javaris stays in town, he’ll get all of the backup minutes, but it sounds like he & Jaric may be gone. If that is the case, Greg Buckner will be their ONLY backup swingman! They will likely add one soon, but why didn’t they just keep Tarence Kinsey??? At small forward, Rudy Gay is the man. He just turned 22 in August, but he’s already this team’s top player and leader on the floor. Bump his minutes up from 37 to 38, and if he continues to improve, watch out!
If Zach Daddy rolls into Tennessee, expect him to start at power forward, play 34+ minutes per game, and help Memphis immensely. Is Marc Gasol ready to start at center? Maybe not, but I think the Grizz are willing to find out. I’m not expecting more than 28 mpg, but he’s got a lot of top-level international experience and is definitely a BIG body with some skills. I didn’t catch Mr. Haddadi in the Olympics, but obviously Memphis likes him. IF he’s ready, he could get a lot of playing time as their backup center, but if he’s not, he might ride the pine while Randolph slides over to the “5.”
Which brings us to Hakim Warrick (30 starts, 23.4 mpg in ‘07-08). The former Orangeman will likely come off the bench due to Randolph, but he could get 24-30 minutes per as their 6th man. I don’t think Kansas rookie Darrell Arthur is ready to contribute much right now, but as we’ve already seen, he’ll likely have a lot of fun in hotel rooms all over North America. Antoine Walker’s PER was 18.9 in ‘00-01, but just 9.6 in ‘06-07 and a more respectable 11.4 last season. I think that teaming him up with Zach Randolph at this point in their careers is either a really good idea or a really bad one.
DON’T SLEEP ON: Zach Randolph
This sounds kind of crazy, but I think that Antoine Walker could have a big impact on Zach Randolph’s fantasy value and future career. Walker just turned 32 in August, but Memphis is his 6th team in 4 years and there’s a possibility that this is his last season in the league. Unless they’re run by idiots, Memphis won’t pick up the $10 million option for A. Walker in ‘09-10 (and the $10.8 mill that follows in ‘10-11), so Employee #8 better have a good season if he wants to remain employed in the NBA. And by “good season,” I mean solid contributions on the court, but even bigger ones in the locker room.
So which Antoine Walker is going to show up? The one who’s overweight and eating donuts, depressed because nobody wants him, who’s accepted that this is his last year in the league and is ready to just collect checks? Or the one who’s ready to bust his ass to get into shape, go hard at Zach Randolph every day in practice, and be the veteran leader that this young team so desperately needs (excluding Darko, they still have 8 players 23 or younger!)?
While I don’t have much faith in this prediction, I’ll put money on the latter one. I envision the arrival of Randolph rejuvenating Walker. Since both players have taken heat from fans and the media alike in the past, and since both are “big boned” power forwards with versatile skills, I predict them getting along well off the court, developing an “us vs. them” attitude, and working harder than ever before to try and silence their haters.
Walker, who at the age of 26 was a 3-time All-Star and #2 option on a team that went to the Eastern Conference Finals, will immediately realize that Randolph just turned 27 (still in his prime), but has zero All-Star appearances and has never made it past the 1st Round of the Playoffs. Knowing how quickly his career slipped out from under him (and how Randolph might be going down the same path), I foresee Antoine taking him under his wing and motivating Zach to work harder and make the most of his skills. (Either that, or he offers him custard-filled maple bars and challenges him to fadeaway 3-point shooting contests every morning).
But seriously, go back to June, when Kevin Garnett was hoisting that shiny gold Championship trophy and Paul Pierce was being named Finals MVP. You don’t think that stung Antoine Walker a bit? Sure, he won a ring with Miami back in ‘05-06, but Pierce used to be his partner in crime, and now their careers are on opposite ends of the spectrum. Will Walker let all of this bring him down, or will he make the most of it by helping Zach Randolph reach the next level?
Boring Analysis: Even if ‘Toine doesn’t help, there are plenty of points to be scored and rebounds to be pulled down for the Grizz. And even a donut-eating Zach Randolph can help out with that.
BE CAREFUL OF: Mike Conley, Jr. & Kyle Lowry
Memphis was a horrible team last year, but Rudy Gay put up superstar stats and Mike Miller was rock solid. However, both Conley & Lowry struggled to have any fantasy value. Obviously, both guys were very young and didn’t get enough minutes to put up big numbers, but perhaps they were already doomed for fantasy failure due to the fact that they were PG’s on a losing team.
In this article that I wrote after the ‘06-07 season, I examined if player’s fantasy values were affected by their team’s winning percentage. You can read it for yourself, but my conclusion was that it didn’t really matter for swingmen or big men, but point guards on losing teams had a much tougher time having fantasy value compared to their winning counterparts (as evidenced by Chris Paul being the ONLY point on a losing team to crack the Top 60 in ‘06-07, while 6 of the Top 20 fantasy players were PG’s from winning teams).
If you agree with this theory, then you probably want to avoid Conley & Lowry this season. Memphis will likely lose a lot of games once again, and the 2 men will limit each other’s minutes and value. Don’t get me wrong, Conley should put up much better stats and is worth a late-round pick, but you should be very wary of drafting him too soon.
ROUND BY ROUND TARGETS
(Where you should draft these guys in an 8-cat Roto league with 12 teams and 14 man rosters)
Gay: 3rd - 4th
Randolph: 6th - 7th
Mayo: 9th - 10th
Conley: 11th - 12th
Gasol: 13th - 14th
Warrick: Last round
Lowry: Don’t draft (but pickup ASAP if Conley goes down)
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Well that sucked. I waited 48 hours to see if the Randolph to Memphis trade that everyone else was talking about would go thru, decided to finally write this piece, then right after I finished saw this article where Donnie Walsh says the deal is dormant.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/10/sports/basketball/10knicks.html
Oh well, I don’t feel like writing any more about Memphis, so we’ll see what happens. Obviously, you should bump Warrick up if Randolph doesn’t get traded, but not TOO much.
Dude, what timing. I was actually holding off on my Memphis preview to see if the trade would happen, only to find an over-saturation of Grizz discussion today. Ah well. Keep up the good work!
Hi E,
Although I normally agree with nearly all of your observations, oh master of all things that bounce on the hardwood….but I’m worried that that Abnormal Psych class you took way back then has messed up your vision. I think you’re confusing the neurotic with a “cured”. I know that Zak going to Memphis likely isn’t going to happen, but if it did…what in A.Walker’s career suggests he’s ever cared about anyone but himself? I’ve always thought that if you look up “selfish, spoiled nba hoopster” in wikipedia, ‘Toine’s picture would be one of those laid out to illustrate and define the phrase. [like, remember that Miami dumped the dude after signing to a "plumpish" contract] .Actually, I hadn’t thought about the chemistry of those two being on the same team before I read your preview. But, for me, if I’m GM of Memphis…Toine’s presence is the exact reason I nix the Knick trade. The only thing worse than one problem child on a team is…..yep, TWO! Besides, by all accounts Zak is a follower…Antoine is not the dude I want Zak following. Frank
Cool site Brendan, altho I certainly didn’t suggest Walker would have any value.
Like I said, teaming up Walker & Randolph at this point in their careers is either a really good idea or a really bad one. I’ve never been a big fan of either player, but it’s not too late for both of them to wise up and turn their careers around. Dont you think Antoine knows that most people feel like you do, Frank? He may not have cared in the past, but the dude’s getting old, and if watching his old team and sidekick win it all without him didn’t wake him up, then nothing will.
At this point, I would compare Walker to the criminal who’s spent the past few years in prison and is about to be released. Most of the public expects him to screw up and get in trouble again, and that’s quite possible. But some criminals turn a negative into a positive by choosing to help others who are about to go down the same path. Hell, Walker doesn’t even need Randolph, because he has the rookie Arthur to mentor, who already got in trouble as we all know.
Someone once said about me: “he makes you earn his respect, but he gives faith freely.” I guess that’s how I feel about Antoine. I don’t have much respect for him, but I have faith in him becoming a positive influence…especially since the future of his NBA career depends on it.
Senor E,
Good reply. I especially like the line re: “faith” & “respect”. I guess for me, there’s no evidence in Toine’s career…including his last stay with a pretty needy Minn. team…that gives me any “faith” that the dude has seen the light. But, in any event, once again you’ve supported your thoughts with a reasonable take. We should soon graduate to weightier stuff like: THE MEANING OF LIFE; THE FATE OF THE AMERICAN EXPERIENCE: & THE SIX NUMBERS IN NEXT WEEK’s LOTTO.
Take care. Frank, aka BRUIN22
All in due time, my friend.
But seriously, Antoine Walker sucks. Why am I talking about him?
Apologies if I mis-characterized your point. But seriously, Antoine Walker as maybe-recidivist finding salvation in mentoring at risk youth? Bubbles and Sherrod from season 4 of the Wire are coming to mind…
No it really would be nice for Walker to be redeemed like that.
Well, Antoine has pretty much hit rock bottom - so where is there to go but up? Its not like anybody is questioning his ability to play - its just his attitude. I’d rather have someone that has mental issues over someone that is physically limited.
Haddadi might be a poor man’s Divac with a team made up of Rudy, Mayo, Marc might be kind of fun to watch!
Hey now! Comments above by Bruin and others are revisionist history to the supreme regarding Antoine’s career. Antoine not having a positive impact on his teammates?! Gimme a break! Even the most ardent Walker haters in Boston would attest to his positive impact on Paul Pierce back in the early 2000’s, and again in 2005 when Walker returned for his Boston reunion tour (and subsequently got Pierce back in gear for a return to the playoffs, which by the way were missing from his spring and summer schedules for the last few years after Walker left, until of course McHale bailed Ainge out and Pierce landed some top tier teammates again). Seriously. Let’s give Antoine a break. I think that no matter what he does people will throw out silly comments about Krispy Kremes and White Castle, all because he was 1% point off some silly body-fat% standard set by Pat Riley. Let me cite some examples of Antoine’s contributions largely going unnoticed by the “mainstream” NBA media. The 2006 AND 2007 playoffs with Miami. In 2006 Miami of course wins the championship. And what often gets understated or COMPLETELY overlooked about that playoff run were the invaluable contributions made by Walker. Just look at his stats in the second round NJ series…. games 2 through 5 he was the man, played a vital role in rallying the team after they lost game 1. In the finals, he was second on the team in scoring. If any other role player on the team had been second on the team in scoring, such as Haslem or Posey or anyone, this would have gotten MUCH more attention, don’t you think? But because it’s Antoine Walker, let’s just make it a footnote, if that! In the 2007 playoffs, Walker rebounds from a sub par regular season to be a key factor off the bench. Let me point you to an article by Eddie Johnson from hoopshype.com after the Heat were eliminated, which essentially places blame on role players like Antoine for the Bulls sweep. But you’ve got to either go back and watch the series, or at least look at the stat lines, and you will see that this claim was absolutely off the mark!:
http://blogs.hoopshype.com/blogs/johnson/2007/05/01/heat-meltdown/
So please check that link out, and also, let me reprint my response to that biased and ridiculous article:
“Hey-
It’s not fair to include Antoine Walker in this group, or to include his picture at the top–this implies that he was the biggest culprit of all. But when you look at the facts, rather than making generalizations, Walker had a good series. For starters, he was one of only three Heat players that scored in double figures each of the first three games (I don’t need to name the other two for you). He went 8 for 16 from three point range for the series. He struggles at the foul line, yet was poised enough to go 9 for 11–not too shabby. Let’s also understand that he was given limited minutes and was coming off the bench. The “other” three starters in the first two games–Haslem, Jones and Williams–shot a combined 12 for 33. Yet it was Walker’s 20 points off the bench in game one that kept the Heat close. His three pointer at the conclusion of the third quarter in game two generated momentum for the team going into the 4th quarter, when they closed within seven. Game three saw Walker post 12 first half points off the bench–effectively turning a six point first quarter deficit into a seven point halftime lead. Game four saw Walker knock down another buzzer beating-momentum building three-this time at the end of the first quarter. And finally, Antoine made some savvy plays on defense in this series. It’s a challenge for a natural 4 to guard players at the 3, but Antoine did a respectable job. Some steals and strips, block of Hinrich, being in the proper position, etc.
Wade made turnover after turnover in this series. And Shaq couldn’t stay out of foul trouble. And Pat Riley let his team down–he should have kept the starting five that won him a title last year instead of getting cute and starting Eddie Jones or Jason Kapono, a darling of Riley’s who was M.I.A. for most of this series and demonstrated that he was clearly not ready for primetime. So stop with the cliches–we all know that Walker is a convenient scapegoat for most people but it’s unfortunate to see a professional commentator falling into this predictable trap.”
I bring all of this up here, because this seems like a fair-minded webmaster with some great commentary. And truthfully I’d like to thank you, Mr. Evil E, for yours is the first write-up I have seen on the Grizzlies which at least ponders the possibility of Antoine having a positive impact on this team, even if that impact is indirect by getting more out of his teammates. If the Grizzlies are smart, they will start Conley, Mayo, Gay, Walker and Gasol (this assumes that the Randolph trade does NOT go through). Antoine is the elder statesman on this team, and while it’s true that he could help out Zach Randolph, I think he will have an overall positive impact on the younger players, such as Gay and Mayo and the rest. So again, great commentary on realizing this general point.
WOW. Good stuff Brian D. I always appreciate thoughtful comments, so hopefully you stick around the site.
I like how you called out Eddie Johnson, but for now I’ll leave him out of this and just say a few things:
1) The current version of A. Walker and the Boston version of A. Walker are 2 very different things. You shouldn’t judge a book by its cover, but in Toine’s case you can. His % of body fat has clearly risen since his Celtic days, which many people may attribute to a lack of motivation. When you’re paid $10 million a year to keep your body in top physical shape, then by all means, you’re expected to do that. He hasn’t, and it’s hurt his abilities on the court.
2) When players age and lose some of their quickness, the good ones find out ways to change their games and become more efficient. What did Walker do last season? He jacked up a career-high 7.6 threes per 36 minutes.
3) Leading up to Miami’s 2006 championship run, whenever someone asked me if I thought they could win it all, my response was A) NO WAY, a PG combo of Jay-Will and a shadow of Gary Payton’s former self is not nearly good enough, and B) Antoine Walker worries me.
Well, Miami proved me wrong, and Antoine was solid as you said. But the fact that their point guards were good enough to win it all told me one thing: Dwyane Wade is the MAN. He carried that team to the title, and you could argue that it was the most impressive playoff performance by a guard since MJ. As a result, I (and many others I imagine) discounted what everyone else on that team did. I think you could have substituted many players for Jay-Will, Payton, and Walker, and the Heat still would have won it all that year. Whether fair or not, that’s how I feel.
Anyway, you make some good points Brian. Welcome to the site!
Bump for Brian’s comment. What do you guys think?
I really appreciate Brian’s analysis as well, though ‘Toine has not had that kind of game for several years, basically because he has aged and,as pointed out by E, is not in playhing shape. I can not get behind Brian’s recommendation of starting Toine this year since he is out of shape and has clearly lost a step or two, but he does not appear to have lost the receipe for chocolate chip cookies
Hmmm, sounds like he’s passionate about this.
My one take is that a guy who gave us the shimmy can’t be all that bad.
In that same vein, I suppose you’d also have to give credit to Darius Miles and Q Richardson for bringing the world the double-fist pound to the head move.
Actually his name is Antoine. His friends call him Toine and this blog is not his friend.
Yes the Antoine from his Celtics days is different but the time being played is also different. Walker has never had the time on the court in Miami or Minny where he could put any stats up.
This whole blog is written in bad taste and the comments by people that have obviously never followed his career for more then ten minutes is just plain pathetic.
Walker only had problems on one team and that was Dallas. He leaves friends behind on every team so this idea that Antoine is a head case and a bad influence is something ex Celtics players make up on his way out the door.
Do the math. Danny Ainge and Kevin McHale. Both are best friends and liars. Ainge especially but you have to have lived in Boston to have heard the lies he made up in radio interviews that he had to swallow hard when he brought Antoine back.
Walker is not perfect and nobody ever said he was but he isn’t close to being anything like the comments written on this blog. Brian said it nicely I however don’t feel like being as politically correct as Brian.
You’re wrong. Heat don’t make it past NJ without Antoine. Pat Riley and the NJ coach even said that in their press conferences. The Heat struggled with injuries the year he played for them but when Walker was inserted into the starting line up they won the title. Of course the big reason was Wade. He was amazing that year but the role player with the biggest impact was Antoine.
There is nothing fat about Antoine. Have any of you ever seen him play live? Seen him in person? My guess is no.