Team Preview #12: Golden St. Warriors
August 20, 2008 by Evil E
Yes, I still prefer the old logo.
LAST SEASON
The Warriors were an impressive 48-34 (their best record since ‘93-94), but they failed to make the playoffs in the ultra-tough Western Conference.
Fantasy-wise, they were one of the top teams, as their 98.8 pace factor (2nd) helped them to finish 1st in points, 1st in field goal attempts, 1st in three point attempts, 2nd in steals, and 6th in total rebounds.
OFFSEASON MOVES
Key Additions: Corey Maggette, Marcus Williams, Ronny Turiaf, Anthony Randolph, Richard Hendrix
Key Losses: Baron Davis, Mickael Pietrus, Matt Barnes, Austin Croshere, Patrick O’Bryant
It was a VERY busy offseason for Chris Mullin & company. After Baron Davis exercised his opt-out clause at the last minute to bolt for L.A., they were left scrambling to try and replace the man who revitalized their franchise. Step 1: sign Corey Maggette to replace Baron’s scoring punch. I think $50 million for 5 years is way too much money (3 years, $20 million sounds right to me), but there’s no denying his ability to put the ball in the hole. Step 2: add the high-energy Ronny Turiaf for interior defense and frontcourt depth. The Warriors have been missing an athletic banger for years, and for $17 million over 4 years, I like this move a lot. Step 3: bring in a talented point guard (Marcus Williams) with the potential to blossom. Step 4: bring back Azubuike to lessen the blow of losing both Pietrus & Barnes. Step 5: re-sign Monta Ellis & Andris Biedrins to long-term deals. At just 22 years old and improving every year, both guys are franchise cornerstones.
Not to be forgotten are the Warriors’ rookies. Randolph is a super-skinny forward with versatile skills and a promising future. He proved to be very adept at getting to the free throw line in Summer League action, but it remains to be seen how much he’ll contribute as a rookie. I was hoping the Warriors would draft Richard Hendrix in Round 2, and they did just that. He’s a coach’s son who graduated college in THREE years, and has been compared to fellow 2nd rounders Paul Millsap & Carl Landry. And last but not least is the undrafted Anthony Morrow. In 7 Summer League games, Morrow averaged 18.1 points and made 17-of-23 threes, and was so impressive that the Warriors inked him to a 2-year deal.
ROTATION / PLAYING TIME
Let’s start at center, where Biedrins started 59 games and played 29 mpg in those, but then came off the bench for 17 games and played just 21.9 mpg, resulting in a 27.4 average. Al Harrington also started 59 games and averaged 27.0 minutes of action. For ‘08-09, I’m projecting 30 minutes for Biedrins, 24-26 minutes for Harrington, and 20-22 minutes for the newcomer Turiaf. Brandan Wright played just 9.9 minutes per in 38 games as a rookie, but he should get at least 12 minutes per in 60+ games as a sophomore. Kosta Perovic & Hendrix will battle for the remaining big man minutes.
At the swingman spots, Stephen Jackson (39.1 mpg) and Maggette (35.7 mpg) will likely start and play big minutes once again. I’m currently projecting 36-38 minutes for S-Jack, 34-36 minutes for Maggette, and 18-20 minutes for Azubuike off the bench. Monta Ellis (38.0 mpg) is currently slated to start at PG for the Warriors. I’m projecting him to play 38 minutes once again while he splits his time evenly at both guard spots. Marcus Williams could potentially start at point (which makes him worth a last round gamble), but right now I’m projecting him to come off the bench and play 16-18 minutes per game. This means there won’t be many minutes left for Marco Belinelli and the Anthony rookies (Randolph & Morrow) unless someone gets hurt.
DON’T SLEEP ON: Andris Biedrins
Last season, Biedrins was just a few rebounds shy of averaging a double-double, a feat that only 9 players accomplished. Of course, this didn’t stop him from pulling down an NBA season-high 26 boards against the Knicks, and if you throw out the 17 games in which he didn’t start, Biedrins averaged 10.5 rebounds per game (would have ranked 8th instead of 11th). He also led the league in FG% at 62.6%, a year after finishing 3rd at 59.9% FG.
Not to be forgotten is Biedrins’ steadily improving FT%. After shooting an embarassing 30.6% FT in ‘05-06, he improved to 52.1% FT in ‘06-07, and then finally a semi-decent 62.0% FT in ‘07-08. However, the main reason I’m high on Andris is because his blocks are sure to go up. He swatted just 1.24 shots per game last season, which was well below his career-high of 1.66 from the season prior. With more minutes and some help from Ronny Turiaf (5th in blocks per 48 minutes), AB should have no problem increasing his blocks in ‘08-09. Some people might be afraid that Andris will take it easy now that he has a fat contract, but I know my Warrior centers, and Biedrins is no Erick Dampier.
BE CAREFUL OF: Al Harrington
From a fantasy hoops perspective, here’s what to like about Harrington: he’s a center-eligible player who made 1.9 threes per game last year. Now here’s what NOT to like: he’s a horrible rebounder & shot-blocker, he’s shot over 78% FT just once in his career, he shoots a poor FG% because of the threes, and he’s likely going to play less in ‘08-09 because of Turiaf, Wright, and Hendrix. Some people are going to use a Top 100 pick on Harrington because of the treys, but I suggest waiting until Round 11 at the earliest.
ROUND BY ROUND TARGETS
(Where you should draft these guys in an 8-cat Roto league with 12 teams and 14 man rosters)
Ellis: 3rd – 4th
Maggette: 5th – 6th
Jackson: 6th – 7th
Biedrins: 6th – 7th
Harrington: 11th – 12th
Williams: Last round
Turiaf: Don’t draft (but watch closely if you need blocks)
Azubuike: Don’t draft (but pickup ASAP if Maggette goes down)
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E – First and foremost, welcome back.. Hope you are relaxed cause you have a lot of teams to cover in the next 10 days!
I agree GSW paid way too much for Maggs and I’m not sure the Roni don’t call me Roni Turiaf is going to be much of an impact player. yeah, he is high energy and he does get blocks, but he is not much of an offensive threat. Maybe he will surprise me with more pt.
Hey Evil E… glad to be back… that’s your team so it should be easy to clarify your round targets for Captain Jack and Maggette…
Reading their career stats, last year stats and last three years stats, in my opinion, Jackson is slightly better or better in BPG, SPG & APG and Maggette is slightly better or better in RBG and PPG, Maggette is considerably better in FG% and Jackson is considerably better in 3PG… and they have same FT%…
If you really expect couple of minutes more playing time for Jackson where you expect a substantial improvement in Maggette’s stats (or the opposite for Jackson) to justify slating Maggette a round earlier compared to Jackson?
Thanks guys. Does the game clock still run during timeouts?
Both Turiaf and Mullin have stated that he has more offense than he showed in LA, and the dude scored 16 ppg on a Gonzaga team that also had Adam Morrison. He runs the floor well and is an underrated passer, and could easily set career-highs around 9 points, 5 boards, 1.8 assists, and 1.6 blocks in just 22 minutes of action. Not bad if you ask me.
RE: Jackson vs. Maggette…
The short answer is: I think Maggette is a safer pick this year. Let’s start with their contracts. Maggette just signed a lucrative long-term deal that many people are questioning. This means A) Nelson & Mullin think he’s a great fit for their system, B) Maggette is excited to play run & gun and will want to prove the haters wrong, and C) Corey will get plenty of minutes.
Yes, I’m projecting more minutes for Jackson, but if one of them suddenly sees his minutes drop to 30, it will be S-Jack, NOT Maggette. Why would I even consider that a possibility? Well, I’m not expecting them to win as many games this year. They’ll fight for that 8th spot once again, but they’ll likely have more bumps in the road this time. The W’s roster is incredibly young (Maggette, Harrington & Jackson are the only guys over 25), so plenty of mistakes will be made along the way. And if the Warriors are down 20 points and playing poorly, Maggette will have no problem staying in to “get his,” but Jackson would rather be on the bench.
Do NOT underestimate the fact that Capt. Jack blossomed when he teamed up with Capt. Baron. Stephen is expected to be one of the leaders once again, but he’ll likely be more volatile with Baron gone. And if the Warriors are out of the playoff hunt sooner than expected, I think Jackson will sit more often to give guys like Belinelli & Randolph more minutes (again, Maggette will stay in because of 50 million reasons). So I downgraded Jack because of all that.
But if you want to look at stats, you should first look at the 2.5 threes made (his best category) and 36.3% 3P for Jackson last season. Both were career-highs, and both are likely to fall in ‘08-09. Stephen’s assists could go up with Baron gone, but I expect the rest of his numbers to decrease as well.
“and they have same FT%…”
C’mon now D. Jackson’s 5.1 FTA last season was a career-high, whereas Maggette has attempted over 8 freebies per game for 5 years in a row and shot over 80% FT for 7 in a row. Mark my words: Maggette will MAKE twice as many free throws as Jax ATTEMPTS this season. If you compare their ppg from last season, Corey’s 22.1 doesn’t look much better than Jack’s 20.1. But in ‘08-09, I’m expecting that to be much closer to 24/18 in favor of Maggette. Big difference there. And did you miss the part where I said the Warriors were 2nd in steals last season? Their transition offense relies on them forcing a lot of turnovers, so I fully expect Maggette to set a career-high in steals as he gambles more often defensively.
All that being said, there’s only a one round difference between the two! Both guys are solid fantasy picks, and if you want to draft Jackson before Maggette, you shouldn’t hesitate to do so because of my August “round by round” suggestions.Sure, additional unwritten thoughts are going into every decision, but my October rankings could look very different.
thanks for the extremely detailed and thorough answer/explanation…
with monta ellis starting at one of the 2 gaurd spots, whos gonna start at the other gaurd spot with him? i woulda said williams but u think his gonna start on the bench.
starting 5: Ellis, Capt. Jack, Maggs, Al Harrington, Andres B.
Obviously, the recent injury to Monta is a HUGE BLOW to this team (and their fans
). Ellis will be out till mid-December or perhaps even January, so if Marcus Williams is ready, the PG spot is his. You prolly want to watch him in preseason before deciding where to draft him. Bump Jackson up to 5th round or so and drop Ellis down of course. Azubuike might be worth drafting now. I hope the Warriors gamble on Shaun Livingston now!
Would anyone care to see a Monta Ellis tribute since one of the most exciting players in the game is going to be shelved for awhile?
post it E
Does Williams move up at all from last round pick? I think he could bust out on some hyphy 06 shit.
of course. 8th – 9th round for sure, maybe higher depending on how he looks in preseason. But everyone has their attention on him now, so I don’t see him falling far. The real question is where do you draft Monta now? 9th – 10th?
And I’m telling you: CJ Watson and/or Belinelli are going to have value at some point…