Team Preview #27: Minnesota T-Wolves
September 7, 2008 by Evil E
Can Big Al & Kev-Love both average double-doubles?
LAST SEASON
The Timberwolves went 22-60, missing the Playoffs for the 4th year in a row. Randy Foye missed over half the season, but Minnesota simply wasn’t a very good team.
They ranked 6th in field goals attempted, but just 25th in threes made, 26th in scoring, 26th in assists, 29th in blocks, and 29th in free throws attempted.
OFFSEASON MOVES
Key Additions: Mike Miller, Kevin Love, Jason Collins, Brian Cardinal, Rodney Carney, Booth, Pekovic
Key Losses: Marko Jaric, Antoine Walker, Greg Buckner, Kirk Snyder
The T-Wolves definitely improved over the summer, trading away their top pick (OJ Mayo), a washed-up former All-Star (Antoine Walker), and two bad contracts (Jaric + Buckner) for Mike Miller, Kevin Love, Jason Collins, and Brian Cardinal. Cardinal still has 2 years and $13 million remaining on his contract, but Minnesota got the prospect that they wanted, an excellent offensive player in Miller, and a veteran big man.
In a separate trade, they also picked up the athletic swingman Rodney Carney, the 7-footer Booth, and a future 1st rounder from Philly for just a 2nd round pick and a trade exemption. Carney will likely replace Kirk Snyder, who played a key role off the bench for Minnesota last season. In the draft, they also chose the Serbian Nikola Pekovic at #31, who is 6-foot-11 and put up excellent stats in the Euroleague (16.4 points on 58.4% FG). The Wolves also managed to re-sign Ryan Gomes, Craig Smith, and Sebastian Telfair, 3 key players from last season.
ROTATION / PLAYING TIME
Point guard is the biggest question mark for Minnesota. Randy Foye has flashed some potential, but he missed a big chunk of last season due to a kneecap injury (31 starts, 32.3 mpg) and has yet to really prove himself in the NBA (unlike Brandon Roy, the man he was traded for on draft night). They need Foye to step up, because Telfair (51 starts, 32.2 mpg) has improved, but he’s clearly a backup and nothing more. If both are healthy, I’ll project 32-34 minutes for Foye and 16-18 minutes for Telfair. Rashad McCants (75 starts, 27.0 mpg) played surprisingly well last season, but he’s headed back to the bench with Mike Miller now in town. I’m projecting 34-36 minutes for Miller and just 16-18 minutes for McCants, while Carney is limited to garbage time.
At small forward, there’s a battle for minutes between Ryan Gomes (26 years old, 29.7 mpg) and Corey Brewer (22 years old, 22.8 mpg). Gomes is a much better offensive player and more reliable to boot, but Brewer is the better defender. Since Minnesota could use some defense in their lineup, I’m predicting Brewer to start and get 24-26 minutes of action. Meanwhile, Gomes would be an excellent 6th man who can play 30+ minutes backing up both forward spots. Kevin Love should immediately step into the starting lineup and get 28-30 minutes off the bat, and possibly more as the season progresses. Al Jefferson is a lock for 36 minutes at center, while Craig Smith will get around 18 minutes as the first big man off the bench. The veteran crew of Jason Collins, Calvin Booth, Mark Madsen (yes, he’s still around!), and Brian Cardinal will fight for the remaining minutes.
DON’T SLEEP ON: Kevin Love
Two months ago, I called out Rotoworld for naming Craig Smith the starter and underestimating Kevin Love’s fantasy potential. The former Bruin is going to flirt with double-doubles on a nightly basis, is an excellent passer, and should post solid shooting %’s. Here’s what I said about Love’s free throw shooting in particular:
25 NBA players averaged 9+ boards last season (Love pulled down 10.6 in college), but only 9 of those 25 shot 75% or better from the line (Love shot 76.7% FT). Now of those 9, only 5 averaged 4.5 or more free throw attempts per game (Love averaged 6.6 FTA at UCLA and had 11 games with 10+ attempts). Their names? Amare Stoudemire, Kevin Garnett, Yao Ming, Chris Kaman, and Antawn Jamison. Clearly, Love has a very good chance of joining a select group of big men who can provide you with lots of rebounds while also helping out (or at least not hurting) your overall FT%. That makes the rookie very valuable in my mind.
BE CAREFUL OF: Al Jefferson
I’m high on Love, but I’m down on Big Al. Jefferson was the ONLY player to average 21+ points and 11+ rebounds in ‘07-08, but he’ll have trouble duplicating those stats with the addition of Love. Last season, only 3 other players averaged 4+ boards for Minnesota: Gomes (5.8), Craig Smith (4.6), and Kirk Snyder (4.2). Gomes played a lot of power forward, but now he’s going to slide over to SF to accomodate Love, who is a vastly superior rebounder. At shooting guard, Mike Miller (career 5.3 boards per 36 mpg) is also a superior rebounder compared to McCants (career 3.6 boards per 36 mpg).
Now consider Telfair’s career average of 11.9 points per 36 minutes vs. Randy Foye’s career average of 15.4 points per 36. A healthy Foye is capable of scoring in bunches and Miller is also an excellent offensive player, which means fewer shot attempts for Jefferson in ‘08-09. The 20 & 10 club is still pretty exclusive, but it’s not the same as 21 & 11. Big Al is still one of the top fantasy centers, but I don’t suggest using a Top 30 pick on him.
ROUND BY ROUND TARGETS
(Where you should draft these guys in an 8-cat Roto league with 12 teams and 14 man rosters)
Jefferson: Late 3rd – 4th
Miller: 5th – 6th
Foye: 8th – 9th
Love: 9th – 10th
Gomes: 11th – 12th
No related posts.
Jefferson is a beast!
I’m a long-tme Wolves fan, but even I not as optimistic on Love as you are.
28-30 minutes off the bat? Starting line-up?
I like the kid, he’s got tremendous passing ability and understandes the game like he’s a veteran, but he clearly has some phisical limitations in his game. In summer league he was in the best shape of his life and still he looked slow sometimes and got his shot blocked a ton. He needs to lose fat and tone down ASAP.
Also the Wolves are known to bring their rookies along slowly. They did it with McCants (and he was a senior), with Foye and with Brewer somewhat (although, he was clearly not ready).
I predict 10-15 minutes off the bench for Love to start a season and, if his body and play will react well to that, something like 25-30 min when the season progresses. He’s just 19 years old, expecting starting caliber production from him right off the bat is a bit premature.
If Collins still can play and defend he will start IMO. Or if he’s done, Gomes will at PF.
I’ve never liked Rashad McCants, so I’m pretty shocked that he posted Minnesota’s best Roland rating last season. He’s a poor man’s version of Ray Allen on a good day, but a homeless man’s version on a bad one.
So it’s no surprise that his minutes were limited as a rookie, but look who was in front of him that season! Wally Szczerbiak in the first half (Wally’s last really good year) and then Ricky Davis after the trade. They also had Trenton Hassell & Marko Jaric to give minutes to.
Love will have a much easier time earning minutes…
You really think Jason Collins is going to start? You mean kind of like how Ervin Johnson used to start for Minnesota, play the first 8 minutes, and then sit on the bench for the rest of the game?
OK, so that still leaves 136 frontcourt minutes, 36 of which will go to Jefferson. 100 left. Gomes is rock solid, right? So he’s gonna play a lot…let’s give him 32 minutes. 68 left.
I think Love’s minutes are dependent on what he brings to the table compared to:
A) Craig Smith and B) Corey Brewer.
Smith is a huge wide body who’s strong down low and great at creating space, right? Nice low post moves and an efficient scorer on the block. Okay defender, but clearly limited by his lack of length and hops.
Well, I dunno about you, but I think Love is ALL OF THOSE THINGS and MORE. He can match Craig’s strength and he’s a little bit taller. He can create space and score in the paint, but he can ALSO shoot outside. Way better court vision, much better high post player, and he should add a whole new dimension to their offense with his outlet passes and general basketball IQ. He’s supposed to be a tireless worker too, so if I’m coaching, Love has already moved ahead of Smith on the depth chart. I don’t see how Smith could get more minutes, so 28 for Love and 16 for Smith sounds right to me. 24 minutes left for Brewer…
Who is the perfect compliment to Love IMO. Long & skinny and can’t shoot, but can dribble, slash, play great D, and run the floor. I think Brewer will benefit from Love’s outlet passes more than anyone actually, because he’s a much better transition player than halfcourt.
So if I were coaching Minnesota, I would start Corey and Kevin at the forward spots, give Gomes a lot of minutes backing up both guys (but mostly Brewer), give Smith limited minutes off the bench, give Collins even more limited minutes backing up Al, Cardinal energizer minutes whenever I needed a spark, and Booth & Madsen garbage time.
At least, I think they have their best chance of winning by using that rotation, but perhaps Randy Wittman is sleeping as well…
I would play AL, Love, Gomes, Miller and Foye! Just make them play half-court and post all three of their front-court players! One thing that Minny could always do was beat the Suns and I wonder why?
cool article about Ryan Gomes distributing defibrillators:
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?page=Gomes-080908
1. Big Al is not a center, he doesn’t like to play there and he’s not as effective there. Thinking he will play exlcusively at C next season is foolish.
2. You clearly are understimating Collins (and Ervin Johnson too, while we’re at it he was an important piece of Wolves 2003 WCF run). He can still play 15+ minutes I think.
3. Smith at least proved that he can score in this league. Love and Brewer? Not so much.
4. Pairing Love and Al on frontcourt for more than 15-20 minutes a game against elite low-post scorers is asking for trouble.
5. Brewer is too skinny right now to play SF full-time.
6. You’re not coaching, Randy Whittman is coaching and believe me, he’s not very bright.
1. Big Al played 95.8% of his minutes at center last year:
http://www.82games.com/0708/07MIN15C.HTM
2. Jason Collins posted a PER of 3.4 last season and 3.0 the year before. His rookie year it was a semi-respectable 10.7. Collins played for 2 teams last year, and he had the WORST Roland Rating on BOTH teams (excluding guys who barely played):
http://www.82games.com/0708/0708MEM.HTM
http://www.82games.com/0708/0708NJN.HTM
He’s a below average rebounder and one of the worst offensive players in the league. Frankly, I don’t see what the Collins twins are good for besides interior toughness and 6 fouls. And I only compared Collins to Ervin Johnson for their lack of minutes, not their skills. Ervin could at least affect the game by blocking & altering shots, and I know he was a valuable piece.
3. Well, Love hasn’t played an NBA game yet, so I guess you’re right.
4. Minnesota isn’t going to be a great defensive team anyways, so they may as well try to outscore their opponents, and pairing Love & Al on offense will make up for their limitations on defense I believe.
5. Exactly! Which is why Gomes is going to get a lot of minutes at small forward and why there are minutes to be had for Love at the “4.” Isn’t that what we’re arguing? How many minutes Love is going to get. You say 10-15 and I say 28-30.
6. That’s a good point, but perhaps you’re overlooking Kevin McHale, who is in love with Kevin Love and I’m pretty sure will have some say in the distribution of minutes. His GM skills have been questioned numerous times in recent years, and now that he finally got “HIS GUY,” do you really think he’s going to let his team lose games once again while his top pick sits on the bench?
7. If you would like to re-visit this later, I will gladly wager that Love’s mpg average at the All-Star break will be closer to 29 than it is to 12.5.
check m8
Great discussion going on here, but just to clear some stuff on Rashad Mccants.
1. As E pointed out, in 05, Shad was playing behind a then very good Wally.
2. In 06, he spent most of the time on the injured list due to a groin injury.
3. 07 was the 1st year he really had the chance to strut his stuff, the results?
15.3 pts, 1.7 3’s, 3.4 rebs, 2.5 assists, 44fg in 29min in 24 starts.
Not bad for someone who’s only 22 and just getting his first real chance to play in the league. I personally would like to see a lineup of Foye, Mccants, Miller, Love and Jefferson for the Wolves.
1. I know that and that’s why I’m arguing. His PER on PF was higher and he was more effective there. Just like in 2006-07 season:
http://www.82games.com/0506/05BOS12C.HTM
Big Al played so much C last season simply because Wolves had no legit center. Ratliff was injured most of the time (team looked much better when he played, btw) and Chris Richard sucked as a rookie.
2. Collins is long body that can play good man-to-man D, bang down low and take some place under the basket. I don’t care about his Roland rating, Wolves need that. Like, desperately.
4. I hope for that too, but Wittman isn’t known for his offensive schemes (or any schemes for this matter)
5. I say 10-15 minutes AT THE BEGGINING of the season. We will see from that.
7. I wrote: “I predict 10-15 minutes off the bench for Love to start a season and, if his body and play will react well to that, something like 25-30 min when the season progresses” and I stand by that statement. By the All-Star break I think his minutes will be closer to 25, yes and he will be unleashed after it, but first two months of the season? 20 minutes max, unless he actually is the second coming of Bill Walton.
Timberwolves center Jason Collins underwent surgery on Thursday to repair a rupture of his right triceps tendon in his elbow.
Well I guess that solves that one, eh tanat-0s? Or do you see Calvin Booth starting at center now?
After projecting Ryan Gomes & Craig Smith as the starting forwards less than 2 months ago, Rotoworld now says “Just another reason to “love” Kevin Love this year.”
Reason #7 why my Draft Guide will be superior: no flip-flopping!
yeah, that sucks.
now kevin will be throwed to the wolves right of the bat. I just drafted him in a 10th round.
one thing though, we better hope his body can take all that nba beating, cause if he can stay on the floor, he will produce. he’s a stat machine.