Trade Deadline Thoughts
February 19, 2009 by Evil E
Aaron Brooks is one of several players on the rise after Thursday’s trades.
There weren’t any major blockbusters, but there were several key trades that will have an effect on the fantasy landscape. Whose value is rising and whose is falling? Which teams made the best deals?
Here are some of my thoughts…
Alston to Orlando
In a 3-team deal, Houston sent Rafer Alston to the Magic, Orlando sent a 1st round pick to Memphis, and the Rockets received Kyle Lowry and Brian Cook. Orlando is obviously worried about losing Jameer Nelson, so adding a veteran like Alston is a great insurance policy. It looks like Memphis is firmly commited to Mike Conley Jr. now, and the Rockets have an interesting offensive/ defensive PG duo in Aaron Brooks & Kyle Lowry.
Fantasy Impact: RISING = Brooks, Alston, Conley
Pretty much every point guard involved in this deal benefits, especially Aaron Brooks. The speedy sharpshooter will likely start for Houston now, and his offense will be needed now that T-Mac is out for the year. Is he ready to start and play big minutes for a playoff contender? I’m not so sure about that, but he’ll definitely be worth owning and he should have some big games. Alston should also get more assist and 3-point opportunities playing with Dwight Howard, while Conley gets a boost as well since he’s the Grizzlies only pure point guard now. Lowry is also worth watching for Houston, but there’s no need to pick him up now.
Fantasy Impact: FALLING = Johnson, Nelson
The little fantasy value Anthony Johnson was clinging onto just disappeared thanks to Rafer Alston. This is also a bad sign for Jameer Nelson owners. Hang onto him until he gets a 2nd doctor’s opinion, but the Magic are prepared to move on without him and you need to be as well.
Hughes & Wilcox to the Knicks
The Bulls sent Larry Hughes to New York for Tim Thomas, Jerome James, and Anthony Roberson. As much as I don’t like Hughes, I’m not sure what the Bulls were thinking here. Larry has 1 more year for $13.7 million left on his contract, but James has a player option for $6.6 mill next year and Jeffries has a player option for $6.9 mill two years from now. Couldn’t Chicago at least have asked NY to throw in a 2nd round pick? In a separate deal, the Knicks got the expiring contract of Chris Wilcox from the Thunder for the expiring contract of Malik Rose. Obviously OKC was sour on Wilcox and was ready to get rid of him at all costs. For New York it makes total sense, as they pick up an athletic big man who can run the floor but has never lived up to his potential. He could excel playing for D’Antoni and help the Knicks do some damage in the playoffs, and if not, his contract expires after this season.
Fantasy Impact: RISING = Wilcox, Hughes
As we all know by now, playing for Mike D’Antoni only helps your fantasy value. Wilcox isn’t going to get as many minutes in NY as he would have in NO, but he could still do enough to be worth owning in deeper leagues. Hughes was barely playing for Chicago and he still won’t be a reliable option in New York, but he could have value if someone gets hurt.
Fantasy Impact: FALLING = Tim Thomas
Thomas hasn’t had much fantasy value this year, but at least he had the green light to shoot treys under Mike D. Vinny Del Negro will likely have a shorter leash and minutes will be harder to come by, so don’t expect anything from TT the rest of the way.
Miller & Salmons to the Bulls
Sacramento sent Brad Miller & John Salmons to Chicago for Andres Nocioni, Drew Gooden, Cedric Simmons & Michael Ruffin. With Gooden potentially out for the year and Nocioni not playing much anyway, the Bulls got a serious talent upgrade. Even tho Derrick Rose is still a rookie, it’s nice to see Chicago trying to make some noise in the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Kings get some salary cap relief as their re-building process continues. In separate deals, the Kings shipped Ruffin to Portland for Ike Diogu and Shelden Williams & Bobby Brown to Minnesota for Rashad McCants & Calvin Booth. This will be Shelden’s 3rd team in 3 years, and with Al Jefferson out for the year, this is his last chance to prove that he’s not a total bust.
Fantasy Impact: RISING = Hawes, Garcia, Nocioni, Udrih, Martin
With Miller finally out of town, Hawes is Sacramento’s starting center right now and for many years to come. The 20-year old already showed what he could do at the beginning of the year, and now he’ll be a reliable fantasy starter once again. If you need a center and Hawes is available, make sure you pick him up. With Salmons gone, either Garcia or Nocioni will move into the starting lineup. Both players have had forgettable seasons thus far, but both have proven in the past that they can put up nice stats. ‘Cisco has a higher upside because he’s more well-rounded and will likely get more minutes, but Andres is always capable of getting hot and being a nice source of threes. With Salmons gone, I also see a few more assists for Beno Udrih and Kevin Martin.
Fantasy Impact: FALLING = Salmons, Noah, Hinrich, Thompson
You had plenty of chances to trade Salmons while his value was high, so if you hung onto him I don’t feel sorry for you. He’ll still get plenty of minutes as Chicago’s 6th man, but he won’t have the ball in his hands nearly as much as he did in Sactown. His stats are going to fall, and I think his fantasy status has just gone from “solid” to “borderline.” Joakim Noah finally got on track when Gooden got hurt, but the addition of Miller is a huge blow to his fantasy value. Chicago also got rid of Hughes & Sefolosha, but Hinrich’s stats may still take a hit due to Salmons. Even if Gooden IS out for the year, Jason Thompson’s minutes may slip a bit since the Kings just acquired 2 young power forwards (Simmons & Diogu) and will want to see if they can play or not.
OKC loses Chandler, but adds Sefolosha
Oklahoma City already has a bright future thanks to Durant, Green, and Westbrook, but they could have been even better if they landed Tyson Chandler (and TC returned to his ‘07-08 form). It’s his 8th year in the league but Chandler is still just 26 years old, meaning he should have plenty more gas left in the tank. Just I was ready to pencil the Thunder into the 2010 Playoffs, the trade got nixed thanks to TC’s bum toe. But OKC was ready to make more moves, dealing Wilcox to the Knicks and trading away a 1st round pick to Chicago for Thabo Sefolosha. The Swiss swingman has the athleticism to run with Durant & Co. and is a tenacious defender, and is still just 24 years old. Even after trading that pick away, the Thunder still have FOUR 1st round picks in the next 2 years. If they make the right picks and they keep their core intact, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if OKC is playing in the Western Conference Finals as early as 2013.
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Nice write up E.
Here are some questions about players worth talking about.
Brad Miller didn’t get a grade. Up/Down? Holding steady.
What about Von Wafer in Houston?
Does the addition of Sefolsha hurt Earl Watson? I think it does. I play in a really deep league. I don’t talk about it because its a public league.
Hey Kicking Rocks. Miller should still be a solid starter but his assists might fall in Chicago. Wafer will obviously get more minutes with T-Mac out, so he’s worth a look in deeper leagues. Yeah, I agree that the Thabo addition hurts Watson & Weaver.
should i drop salmons 4 garcia??
and now that augustins back to the bench with raja bell back am i better off having brooks?
Absolutely. For better or worse, Brown and management believe in Felton, and they can’t leave both of those guys on the court at the same time, as they’re tiny. Get Brooks before he gets gone.
Should I drop Sessions or Monta Ellis for Aaron Brooks as Ridnour is back and I need threes?
Huge game for Brooks last night: 19 points, 8 dimes, 2 steals, and 3 threes. YES, you guys better drop Sessions and Augustin for him before he’s long gone. Dropping Salmons for Garcia also makes sense.
I just dropped Stevie Blake for him…also a good move?
Amare out for the year?!?! Here comes Matt Barnes (picking him up for $1 a few weeks ago looks pretty shrewd, eh?).
Barnes can play. And when the screws tighten Matt Barnes performs. You know this as a Warriors fan E. Potential stat filler as an athletic forward playing in the the now-re-perfect system.
Good thing Alvin Gentry stayed on staff. Why is that btw? Porters call or Steve Kerr made that decision?
If Gentry weren’t on staff Porter could not have been fired.
which two of the following three would you rather have:
1. beno
2. brooks
3. jr smith
p.s. E: loving your site all year
Gotta be brooks and JR Smith, in that order. Brooks’ #s definitely go up with the trade, and JR is Denver’s main scoring punch off the bench. Beno is just too mediocre, and brooks outclasses him in pretty much every category.
the thing is, beno has been Really good his last six games…JR smith has been very average in that span…and if you look at beno’s last 6 games they are almost as good as any 6-game span of JR’s the whole year.
I looked at the box scores for the last 6 games and I see what you mean- sorry, I had just compared season/split stats and based my conclusions on those. Still, I figured you didn’t want two PGs (you didn’t post your team, so I guessed) and thus recommended Brooks and JR. I’d still rather have Brooks than Beno, and I suppose Beno will have better assist numbers with Brad and Salmons out of town (Cisco and Noc should work well with him), so I guess you can put him as #2. But if JR somehow gets that starting spot or 30 mins again, you gotta go with him.
Hey E, I know Brooks has the greater upside and scoring prowess, but what is your opinion on Conley vs Brooks? I feel Conley will be less of a detriment to Fg% and can still chip in a three and a steal a game While brooks’ inconsistent shooting could make him like last year’s alston.
PS I picked up Barnes just in case once the trade rumors started swirling (an idea that was further confirmed by your $1 pickup) and feeling quite shrewd myself right now
Do you want consistent with decent number or explosive possibly not as consistent?
Conley(consistent) vs Brooks(explosive)
conley(low floor-medium ceiling) vs Brooks(medium floor-high ceiling)
Brooks take the ball to the rack fairly often. Helping his fg% and he is a better rebounder.