5 Swimming Events to Watch

What about Kosuke Kitajima, Cullen Jones, and Dara Torres? Here are 5 swimming events that I’ll be watching.

Day 2 – August 9th
Saturday evening (US time)

Men’s 400m Individual Medley

If you want to watch some incredible footage of Michael Phelps’ stroke, just click here.

Otherwise, all you need to know is that his 1st Finals race will be his most important. If he’s going to win a non-gold medal, it will likely happen in this event, where Ryan Lochte probably pushed him harder than he’s ever been pushed exactly six weeks ago. In that U.S. Olympic trials race, Lotche broke the World record that Phelps has owned for six years. The only problem was that Phelps swam even faster, lowering his record mark to 4:05.25. But Lotche says he wasn’t 100%, as he was nursing a recently sprained ankle and was tentative pushing off the walls as a result (indeed, Phelps owned him on the turns).

In that race, Lotche showed me that he has the ability to beat Phelps. His breaststroke technique is superior, and I think he’ll be in 1st place heading into the final lap. He just needs to hang on, which is easier said than done of course. Lotche will also go against Phelps in the 200 meter I.M. on Day 7, but the odds are against him there because he’ll have swum the 200 back just 30 minutes prior and won’t be fully recovered.

IF Phelps can win gold medal #1 here, I’d say that there’s an 80% chance he’ll run the table and win ALL GOLD in Beijing. But what if he loses (gets silver)? I’m guessing many people will turn on him and start (unfairly) labeling him as a “disappointment.” Will the “Golden Boy” Phelps be able to handle that? If he only wins 7 golds, will they still put him on a Wheaties box?

My Prediction: Lotche hangs on for the gold in a thrilling upset, but Phelps shrugs it off and wins the rest of his races.

8/10 Result Update:

My first prediction was wrong, as Phelps shattered his own record once again by going 4:03.84. Lochte was tied w/ him going into the breaststroke leg, which is where he needed to be. But unlike at the U.S. trials, Phelps actually moved ahead of him in breaststroke and then took off on freestyle. Lochte’s time of 4:08.09 was a full 2 seconds slower than his U.S. trials time, which is a very bad sign for the rest of his events. Meanwhile, Phelps looked like he might be untouchable. If the odds are right, I’m going to put money on him to win 8 golds. Don’t forget about the 4×100 free relay tho, as the U.S. is far from being a lock in that event.

Day 3 – August 10th
Sunday evening (US time)

Men’s 100m Breaststroke

On paper, Brendan Hansen is the fastest breaststroke swimmer EVER. In 2004, he set World records in both the 100 meter and 200 meter breast, but he peaked too soon, setting them at the Olympic TRIALS in July. Six weeks later, at the Athens Olympic Games, he swam much slower and took home a disappointing silver medal in the 100 and a bronze medal in the 200.

The man who tasted gold in both events? His Japanese nemesis, Kosuke Kitajima. If you don’t know about Hansen vs. Kitajima and/or if you’re wondering who I’ll be rooting for, just check out these pictures…

Here is Hansen celebrating in 2006 after lowering his own World record. Yay!

Now here is: A) Kitajima letting out a primal scream in Hansen’s face after winning gold in the 100 at Athens (click here and scroll to 1:58 for the start, and then turn up the volume to hear the screams while trying to endure the wind beneath my wings), B) Kitajima celebrating silently after winning gold in the 200 meter breast a few days later, and C) me after my last race in college. Can you guess who I’m down with?

Kitajima: “Cho-kimochi-ii” (Translation: I Feel Mega Good)

Afterwards, Hansen supposedly recorded Kitajima’s scream and set it to his alarm clock, so he’s been waking up to that sound bite every morning for the past 4 years (and swimmers wake up EARLY). What a freak!!! It hasn’t worked for him either, as Kitajima shattered Hansen’s long-standing record in the 200 by over a second this past June, and then Hansen failed to even qualify for the 200 meter race in July, finishing 3rd at the U.S. trials (only the top 2 go to Beijing).

So the 100 meter breaststroke will be their only battle this time around. Hansen STILL owns the fastest time ever at 59.13, but Kitajima went 59.44 recently and three other men have gone under a minute this year. Will the American finally get the monkey off his back or will Kitajima’s scream reign supreme again in ‘08?

My Prediction: Kitajima beats Hansen once again and takes his other World record. The American disappears after the Olympics and never swims competitively again.

8/11 Result Update:

A money prediction, as Kitajima won Gold and broke Hansen’s World record with a time of 58.91. Hansen had a horrible start and finished 4th with a time of 59.57. Kitajima got to scream in excitement once again while Hansen could only shake his head.

Afterwards, the American said it was unfortunate because he had been swimming so well from 2005-2007, but 2008 just hasn’t been a good year for him (keep telling yourself that dude). When asked if this was his last individual race ever, he said “I don’t think so,” before following up with “I don’t want to go out like this. I can’t go out like this.”

Well, guess what Hansen? You still have to swim the breaststroke leg of the medley relay, and you’ll have a chance to redeem yourself with a fine swim and a gold medal. The Americans are the favorites, so anything less would be a disappointment. Because if you DON’T pull thru in that relay, you WILL be going out like that. Out like a sucka!

Day 3 – August 10th
Sunday evening (US time)

Men’s 4 x 100m Freestyle Relay

Here are several reasons why I’m looking forward to this relay race.

1) In the 2004 Olympics in Athens, this was the only relay that the U.S. Men’s team did NOT win gold in. Not only that, but they finished in 3rd place (behind South Africa & Netherlands).

2) The solo 100 meter freestyle race was even worse for them. Jason Lezak finished 21st and Ian Crocker finished 17th, and it was the ONLY Men’s event that the U.S. team did not medal in. Instead, Pieter van den Hoogenband (Netherlands, former World record holder) won gold, Roland Schoeman (South Africa) won silver, and Ian Thorpe (Australia) won bronze. Basically, the U.S. got dominated in this sprint freestyle event.

3) Cullen Jones was NOT on the 2004 U.S. Olympic swim team roster, but he is this year. A former gymnast and basketball player, Jones burst onto the international swimming scene a few years ago and is now one of America’s top sprinters. In a sport with few African-Americans, Jones definitely sticks out. However, he has embraced this role and is a leading spokesman for teaching minorities how to swim (a recent study found that 60% of black children in America do not know how to swim and are three times more likely to drown than their white counterparts).

Believe it or not, Jones nearly drowned as a child, and now he’s one the fastest men on the planet and boasts a $2 million dollar endorsement deal with Nike (the richest ever for a sprint swimmer). At the U.S. Olympic trials in July, he briefly set an American record in the 50 free and finished 3rd in the 100 free, meaning he has a chance to be picked for the 4×100 Olympic team relay (the coaches don’t have to decide which 4 swimmers are going to be on the relay until the day of the event, but there’s a good chance Cullen will make it, because he was a part of the 2006 Pan Pacific team below).

4) On August 19th, 2006, the United States sent the rest of the world a message when they broke the 4×100m Free relay World record with a time of 3:12.46. That team had Michael Phelps, Neil Walker, Cullen Jones, and Jason Lezak, but Walker will not be in Beijing, so he’ll likely be replaced by Garrett Weber-Gale (the man who broke Jones’ American record in the 50 free).

5) The current World record doesn’t mean much at this point, because it’s sure to be broken in Beijing. The stiffest competition for the U.S. will likely come from France, who boasts the current World record holder in the 100 free (Alain Bernard), as well as the fastest relay time of ‘08. This fast & furious relay race will be a lot of fun to watch.

My Prediction: The U.S. and France will both shatter the World record. Jones, Lezak & Weber-Gale will swim lifetime bests and Phelps will swim the anchor leg to bring home the gold. Afterwards, he’ll say its his MOST satisfying victory.

8/11 Result Update:

This was a near flawless prediction, as 3 countries shattered the former World record of 3 minutes and 12 seconds. Australia finished in 3rd with a time of 3:09.91. They were led off by a killer swim from Eamon Sullivan, who proved that he’s the top sprinter in the world by going 47.24 and breaking the World record for a 100 free (he also owns the 50 free record of 21.28).

(In case you’re wondering, you can only OFFICIALLY break an individual World record in a relay when you swim 1st, because you’re going from a normal “flat” start, whereas, the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th swimmers all have the advantage of moving and gaining extra momentum).

Anyway, let’s go back to one of the craziest Olympic relays EVER. I thought Phelps might anchor this team to make the finish as dramatic as possible (he’ll definitely go last in the 4x 200 free relay), but instead he went leadoff and dropped a ho-hum American record of 47.51.

Garrett Weber-Gale swam a fast 2nd leg and went 47.02 to go past the Aussies. The man that I was really rooting for, Cullen Jones, went 3rd for the U.S. team and dropped a solid time of 47.65, but his French counterpart went a full second faster to pull his team ahead.

Swimming anchor for France was Alain Bernard, the guy who held the 100 free record BEFORE Sullivan broke it and the guy who called out the U.S. team before the race. He went a smoking fast time of 46.73, but he had to go up against U.S. Olympic team captain Jason Lezak, who basically decided to swim 2 lengths of the pool faster than anyone ever has before.

His relay split of 46.06 isn’t an official World record, but IS the fastest relay split ever recorded. His finish was as gutsy as they come, as he just put his head down and charged it while the cocky Frenchman was gasping for air. I didn’t even think he had a chance to catch up until there were maybe 8 meters left to go. Sure enough, Lezak pulled it off by just 8/100th of a second, and the Americans won the Gold with a record-shattering time of 3:08.24.

Lezak threw up a huge fist pump while Phelps & Weber-Gale jumped on the starting block to throw their hands in the air and scream Olympic glory. Cullen Jones (a bit more reserved) joined in too, and I give him serious props for coming thru in his 1st Olympic race ever. Immediately after, NBC showed a Johnson & Johnson’s baby commercial that featured Cullen thanking his mom for being his loudest supporter (good stuff).

After his last race, I’m sure someone (Bob Costas?) will ask Phelps which Gold medal is most satisying, and I’ll be shocked if he doesn’t say this race right here.

Day 8 – August 15th
Friday evening (US time)

Women’s 800m Freestyle

If you look at this list of the current World records in swimming, you’ll notice that almost all of them were set in the last 5 years. However, one pre-2000 World record still stands, and that is the Women’s 800 freestyle record set by Janet Evans way back on August 20th, 1989. To hold a World record for nearly 20 years in any sport is quite an accomplishment, but even more so in swimming.

At the 2004 Olympics in Athens, no woman even came close to the record, as the gold medal went to Ai Shibata of Japan with a time of 8:24.54, over 8 full seconds off of Janet’s 8:16.22 record time. However, in 2008, two 19-year olds have already gone under 8:20.00, Rebecca Adlington of Great Britain and Katie Hoff of the United States. Hoff isn’t getting nearly the same recognition as Phelps, but she deserves some props of her own. She’ll be swimming in no less than 6 events in Beijing, and like Phelps, owns the World record in the 400 meter Individual Medley. Now, 800 meters is the equivalent of half a mile, so don’t expect fireworks in this rather boring long distance event. But when you consider how long Janet’s record has been standing, it makes the end of this race worth tuning in for. Will the longest-standing record in swimming finally fall?

My Prediction: Speedo’s “LZR Racer” suit has transformed the sport since it was introduced in February ‘08, as 44 World records have already been broken by swimmers wearing it. Its hydrodynamic technology is too advanced to be slowed down, and as a result, the oldest swimming record in the books is going to fall.

Day 9 – August 16th
Saturday evening (US time)

Women’s 50m Freestyle

I’m sure most of you have heard about Dara Torres by now. She’s 41 years old, incredibly buff, wears OLD school goggles, and will be competing in her 5th Olympic Games. She broke the World record in the 50 meter freestyle way back in 1983(!), and despite the sport’s constant progression, remains just .28 seconds off the current World record (set by Australian Libby Trickett).

Not surprisingly, Torres has many doubters who claim that its impossible to do what she’s currently doing without the aid of steroids. To those people, Torres says: “I’m an open book. DNA test me, blood test me, urine test me. I want people to know I’m doing it right.” (Supposedly, Torres has been tested over a dozen times since March).

My Prediction: Libby Trickett (who won bronze in this event in 2004) will edge Torres out for the gold, while the 41-year old settles for silver. Whether people believe her or not, she’s going to be one of the feel-good stories of the ‘08 Olympics.

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